ﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩ
ﻥﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ
ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺭﺩ ﻦﺴﺣ
١
*
ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻱ
، ﻲﺘﺸﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
h-dargahi@sbu.ac.ir ﻮﺟ ﻚﻴﻧ ﻩﺰﺋﺎﻓ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ،
ﻲﺘﺸﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
faezeh.nikjoo@gmail.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
24 / 12 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
23 / 8 / 91
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻱﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
. ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ
ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﺤﺑ ﻉﻮـﻗﻭ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖـﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﻣﺎﺠﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚﻳ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻜ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱ
) 2 ( 1387 - ) 2 ( 1373 ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺑﺰﻣ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺲﭙـﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎـﺳ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ءﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ًﻻﻭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
) 4 ( 1374 - ) 3 ( 1374 ﻭ ) 2 ( 1387 - ) 4 ( 1386
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ .
ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺮـﺛﺍ ،ًﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ .
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ،ًﺎـﺜﻟﺎﺛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL N2, R11, D8
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ءﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ :
* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻱ
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﺮـﺑ ﻥﻼﻣﺎـﻋ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ،ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ
ﺮﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺍ .
ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ًﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺺﻴﺨـﺸﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﮔ
ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻒﻳﺭﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
. ﺯﺭ ﻭ ﻞـﻜﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ
) 1996 ( ﻦﻳﺯﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺮﻓ ﻭ )
1998 (،
ﺍﺭ ﺞـﻳﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺍﺪﺧﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺻﺎﺧ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻙﻼﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
. ﺮﺑ ﻭﺭﺎـﺑ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﺧ )
2001 (،
ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺍﺪـﺧﺭ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻭ ﺰﭼﺎـﺳ ﻞـﺜﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ
ﻮﻜﺳﻻﻭ ) 1996 ( ﺰﭼﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺩﻭﺭ ، )
1998 ( ﻥﻮﺴﻳﺩﺍ ، ) 2000 ( ﺮﺷﺰﺗﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺮﻳﺎﺳﻮﺑ ﻭ )
2002 ( ،
ﺵﺭﻮـﻳ ،ﺞـﻳﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻥﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﻣ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻪـﺑ ﻖﻓﺆﻣﺎـﻧ ﺎـﻳ ﻖـﻓﺆﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺎ
ﺵﺭﻮﻳ ﻪﺘﻔﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻪﻛ ،ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺎﺑ
ﺎـﻳ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺪـﻧﺍ
. ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺳﺭ
ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻦﻴﻜﺸﻴﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
) 2000 ( ﻥﺍﺮـﺤﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪـﻘﺘﻌﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻲﻟ
ﻙﻮـﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﺎـﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻠﺧﺍﺪﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻪﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱ
ﺲﭘ ﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﺖﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻥﺍﻮﺗﺎﻧ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﻭ ﺮﺗﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻩﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻬﮕﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻚﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻘﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻼﻣﺎﻋ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ،ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺶ
ﻡﺪـﻋ
ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱ ،ﻲﺗﺎ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ .
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ (FSI)1
ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚﻳ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱ
) 2 ( 1387 - ) 2 ( 1373 ﺮـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺑﺰﻣ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
.
1-Financial Stress Index.
2 - ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ
ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲّﻠﻋ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
) ،ﻥﻮـﻧ ﻭ ﺎـﺟﻮﻳﺭ 2004
(،
ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪـﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺯ .1
ـﺟﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻞـﻠﻋ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﻮ
ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻂﻘﻓ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺒﻗ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﻪ ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ،ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﭘ ﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺮـﺗ ﻲـﻳﻭﺩ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻊﻣﺎﺟ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻗﻭ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﻮـﺷﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ .
ﻮﻴﻟ ﻭ ﮓﻨﻴﻠﻳﺁ )
2003 ﻭ 2006 ( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ، ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻡﺎـﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺪـﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻩﺩﺮ
ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻦﻴﻧﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻞﭽﻨﻫ )
2005 ( ، ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﮓـﻨﻴﻠﻳﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻮﻴﻟ ﻭ ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺲﻴﺋﻮـﺳ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﺁ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
،ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﺎﻫ ) ﻢﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻉﻮـﻨﺗ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻱ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﻭﺎـﺴﻣ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺲﻧﺎـﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚﻳ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻦﺘﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻮﻴﻛﺎﻫ
) 2009 ( ﻲﺘﻴـﺳ ﺱﺍﺰﻧﺎـﻛ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺼﺧﺎﺷ ،ﻮـﻴﻟ ﻭ ﮓـﻨﻴﻟ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ،
ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﻴﺑ ،ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺐـﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﻑﺎﻜـﺷ ﻲـﻠﻛ ﻱ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ،ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ،ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺎﻫ
3 ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﻱ
LIBOR
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ .
ﺎﻫ ﻦﺘـﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻮﻴﻛ )
2009 ( ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ، ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﺘﻴﺳ ﺱﺍﺰﻧﺎﻛ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪـﻧﺍ .
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻚﻳ ًﻻﻭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ًﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﻴﭘ
ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﺩﺮﻛ . ًﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ،
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
1-Evans, Green & Murinde (2002); Arestis & Luintel (2001); Levine (2000).
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻛ
ﺪﻨ . ﻝﻻ ﻭ گﺍﺪـﻜﻟﺍ ،ﻲﻟﺭﺍﺩﺭﺎﻛ )
2009 ( ، ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﻮﻴﻟ ﻭ ﮓﻨﻴﻠﻳﺁ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍ
ﺪـﻧ . ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ،ﺎـﻫ ًﻻﻭﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﺶﻨﺗ ـﻤﻧ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﺸﻴﻤﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲ
ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻲـﻟﻭ ، ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻣ ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ
ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ .
ًﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻧﻻﻮﻃ ﻭ ﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ .
ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻌﻣﺎـﺟ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻱ
ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ
. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻱﺭﺩﺎﻧ ) 1382 ( ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،
ﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴ
ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ .
3 - ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ
ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺕﺪﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎ ﻣ ﻭ ﺆ ﺕﺎﺴﺳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ، ﻪـﻛ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ 5
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ · ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ · ﻢﻬﻣ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ · ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ) ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ (
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ · ﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚﻳ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻲﻫﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ · ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
3 - 1 - ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ . ﺭﺩ
ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ )
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ (
،ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ، ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
ﻭ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ
ﺪﻧﺍ .
3 - 2 - ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻫ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ
ﺶﺨﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ) . ﻭ ﻮـﻳﺭﻮﺑ
،ﻭﻻ 2002 ( ﻡﺪـﻋ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻠﻳﻻﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻭ .
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ،ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖـﺴﻳﺎﺑ
ﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮ
. ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ :
ﻪﺼﺨﺸﻣ ﺯﺍ ءﺰﺟ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺎﻳ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ · ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﺷﻮﭘ ﺍﺭ
.
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺎﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺩ · .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ · ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ .
3 - 2 - 1 - ﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺐ
ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺭﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ :
ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻑﺭﺎﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ
ﺎﻫ
ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ·
ﻭ ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻪﺑ
M1
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﻪـﺑ ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ـﭘ
ﺯﺍ ﻝﻮ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄـﺳ
، ﻧ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸ ﻱ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ
ﭘ ﻝﻮ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﭙ ﻩﺩﺮ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﺒﻣ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﭘ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮ ﻱ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﮕﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲ
ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﺒﻣ .
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﻋ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ،ﺕﺎﻜـﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺪـﻫ ﮓـﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﭙـﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺲ
) ﻢﻛ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ (
ﺪﺻ ﻭ ) ﺶﻴﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ (
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ·
ﻪﺑM1 M2
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱ
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻲﮔﺪﻧﻮـﺷﺪﻘﻧ ﺖـﺳﺍ
.
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺰﻴﻬﺠ
ﺏﺬﺟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺮﭙﺳ
ﻩ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ
ﻪﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢـﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻱ
ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﺳ ﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﭙ ﻩﺩﺮ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
. ﻪﻛ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪـﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻪـﭼﺮﮔﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﺒﻣ ﻞﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪـﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻟﻭ ،ﺪـﻫﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﺰـﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﺎـﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗﺎﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﻋ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ .
ﺎـﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺪﻫ ﮓﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ · ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﺽﺮﻗ ﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﺴﺤﻟﺍ
(
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻱ ﺍﺭ
ﻲـﻣ ﺺﺨـﺸﻣ ﺪـﻨﻛ
. ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗﺎـﻧ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﺰـﻴﻬﺠﺗ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ
ـﭘ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎ
ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ
ـﺷﺍﺩ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘ
. ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﮓـﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺪﻫ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪـﻨﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺪﻧﺎﻣ ·
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ
ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺪﻧﺎﻣ ،
ﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﺰـﻧ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ .
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﺎﻫ
،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺪـﻧﺎﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺪـﺻ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ
ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺎﻳ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺡﺮـﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿCV
ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ
،ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ɐ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ρ ﻭ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻙﺮﺤﺘﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ . ൌɐ
ρ ൈ ͳͲͲ
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ·
ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ GDP
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻲ ﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻑﺭﺎﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎ
ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺩﻮﻫ ﮓﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ .
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ·
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ
ﻱ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ
GDP
ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻄﻋﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱ
ﭘ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻝﻮ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ،ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻥﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺯﺍ ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻮﺳ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻱ
ﻲـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﺗ
ﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻄﻋﺍ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ
ﺍﺯ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﺖـﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎـﺣ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ
ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺭﻮﻃ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .
ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶ .
ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﺎﺘـﺳﺍﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻜـﺳﺮﭘ ﻚـﻳﺭﺩﻮﻫ ﮓـﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ
ﺪﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ·
ﻱ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱ
ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ
ﻢﻛ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻑﺭﺎـﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺪﻋﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻡﻭﺍﺪﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ·
ﺖﺸﮔﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ
ﻱ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲـﻠﻛ ﻱﺎـﻀﻓ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣﺎﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻂﻳ
ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺕﺍﺪـﻬﻌﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻕﻮﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ
. ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺸﮔﺮﺑ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ
. ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺪـﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ،ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺪﻫ ﮓﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
.
ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ·
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻞﻛ
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﺖـﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎـﻫ
ﺍ ﻪﺋﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗﺎﻧ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ :
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺥﺮﻧ ·
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻥﻭﺯﻮﻣ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻮﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻭ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻥﺪـﻣﺁ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻤﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﻻﺎﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﻤـﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ،ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ،ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩژﻭﺮﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻂﻘﻓ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺰﮔﺎﻧ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ،ﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮـﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ . ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ
ﺵﻼﺗ ،ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑﺮﭘ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺪﻣﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺡﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺖﻧﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻱﻮﺟ ﻭ ﺖﺴﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﺗ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺯﺎـﺳ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻳﺭﺪـﻫ ﮓﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳ
ﻥﺁ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺲﭙـﺳ ﻭ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ
ﺪﻨﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ .
ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ·
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ،
ﺯﺍ ﻱ
ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﻤﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ
ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ـﭘ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻮ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ · ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺮﺴﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱ
ﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻡ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺮﺑ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺩ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ :
൬
൰ ൌ
െ ଶ ൌ
െ
Ǥ
ൌ
൨
Ǥ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ Ǥୢ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ
ቂቃ ، ﺠﺣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻢ
ୢ ، ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﺣ
ﻝﻮﭘ ، ﻢﺠﺣ M
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ،
ﺢﻄﺳ P
ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ، ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ M/P
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ dP/P
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺲﭘ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻘﺘﻨﻣ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺖﺳﺎﻛ .
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ·
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎﻫ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
1358 ﺎﺗ 1378
ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ًﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻱ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻂﻠﺴﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﻤﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ .
ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻣ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ،ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ .
ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﺻ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ .
3 - 2 - 2 - ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻡﻮﻴﻤﻳﺮﭘ · ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ .
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺪﻨﭼ ﻱ
ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ
ﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺺﻴﺼ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .
ﺶﻴﺑ ،ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻢﻛ ﻭ ﺪﺻ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻡﻮﻴﻤﻳﺮﭘ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ .
ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ · ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﻭﺯﻮﻣ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ER
،
POECD
ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭOECD
PGDP
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ .
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
.
ൌǤ େୈ
ୋୈ
3 - 2 - 3 - ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺑﺮﻣﺮﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ · ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻊ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻊﺑﺮﻣﺮﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻥﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺎﻫﺮﻬﺷ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ
ﻪﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ
. ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
،ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ
ﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
3 - 2 - 4 - ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ ﻚﻳﺭﺪﻫ ﮓﻨﻳﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺶﻨﺗ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
ﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﺪﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺒ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
.
3 - 3 - ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ
3 - 3 - 1 - ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1
ﺎﺗ 4 ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ،ﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮـﭘ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ،ﻡﺎﻬﺳ .
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ
ـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻢﻫﺎـﺑ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ
) ﺭﺍﺩﻮـﻤﻧ 5 .(
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ،ﺎﻫ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ،ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻩﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ
ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺯﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺮـﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭﺩ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭ1
ﻢﻫ ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ2
. ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ
ﻭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍ .
ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎـﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻲﺘﻛﺮﺣ ﻢﻫ ﻁﺮﺷ ،ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ
ﺖــﺳﺍ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪــﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎــﺑ ﺶــﺨﺑ ﺶﻨــﺗ ﺺﺧﺎــﺷ ﺖﺧﺎــﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻛ ﺖــﺳﺍ .
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻛ ،ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺭﺍﻭﺩﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ
) ،ﺰـﻤﻠﻫ 1986 ( ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ،
ﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ءﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ءﺰـﺟ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ )
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ (
ﻥﺁ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
yt
، ﻊــﺟﺮﻣ ﺮــﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲــﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ءﺰــﺟ
Xj
ﻧﺍ ﺮــﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲــﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ءﺰــﺟ ﻱﺩﺍﺮــﻔ
ﻭ ﻡﺍj ﺲﻳﺪــﻧﺍK
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ .
ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺮﻫ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ,
ﻭ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ،ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﺪﻳﺁ
.
1-Principal Component Approach.
2- Regression of Cyclical Component Approach.
0 20 40 60 80 100
69(1) 70(2) 71(3) 72(4) 74(1) 75(2) 76(3) 77(4) 79(1) 80(2) 81(3) 82(4) 84(1) 85(2) 86(3) 87(4)
ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ
k nk
k k
W r
r
2 2
=1
=
å
, yt = b + b0 1Xj,t k- +ut
ﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ،ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻔﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻔﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﺪﻳﺁ . ،ﻱﻭﺎـﺴﻣ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺲﻧﺎـﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮـﻫ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻢﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺷ
ﺩﻮ .
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1 - ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ )
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ (
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 2 - ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
0 20 40 60 80 100
73)2( 74)1( 74)4( 75)3( 76)2( 77)1( 77)4( 78)3( 79)2( 80)1( 80)4( 81)3( 82)2( 83)1( 83)4( 84)3( 85)2( 86)1( 86)4(
ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ
0 20 40 60 80 100
71(1) 72(1) 73(1) 74(1) 75(1) 76(1) 77(1) 78(1) 79(1) 80(1) 81(1) 82(1) 83(1) 84(1) 85(1) 86(1) 87(1) 88(1)
0 20 40 60 80 100
73(2) 74(1) 74(4) 75(3) 76(2) 77(1) 77(4) 78(3) 79(2) 80(1) 80(4) 81(3) 82(2) 83(1) 83(4) 84(3) 85(2) 86(1) 86(4) 87(3)
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 3 - ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 4 - ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 5 - ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ )
0 = ﻢﻛ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ 100،
= ﺶﻴﺑ ﺗ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮ (
0 20 40 60 80 100
74(2) 75(1) 75(4) 76(3) 77(2) 78(1) 78(4) 79(3) 80(2) 81(1) 81(4) 82(3) 83(2) 84(1) 84(4) 85(3) 86(2) 87(1)
ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ
3 - 3 - 2 - ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻧﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﻥﺯﻭ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲـﻣ
ﺗ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﻩﺪـﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐ
ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ )GDP
9 / 18 ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ( ﻪـﺑ ﻙﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﻜـﺳﺍ ﻢـﺠﺣ ، )M1
1 / 15
ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ( ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ، ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﻱ
ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫ )GDP
1 / 13
ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ( ، ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ )
1 / 13 ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ( ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ، ﻪﺑM1
) M2
9 / 10 ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ( ﺩﺮﻤﺷﺮﺑ .
ﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤ
5 ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ )
1 ( 1375 - ) 3 ( 1374 ﻭ ) 2 ( 1387 - ) 4 ( 1386 ﺶﻴﺑ ، ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ .
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻠﻳﻻﺩ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
. ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻲﻃﺎﺴﺒﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ،ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﺶﻨـﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺐﺒـﺳ
ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺯﺭﺍ .
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻦﻴﻣﻭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺯ 87
ﻪﺑ ،ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ
ﻪـﻛ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ .
ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ 86
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ 87
ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ، ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
. ﺯﺍ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ ،ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ،ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺕﻼﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ )
ﻡﺪـﻋ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻑﺭﺎﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺗ (
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ، ﺩ ﺖﺸﮔﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ،ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍ
ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻴـﭘ ،ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ .
ﻢﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻢﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ .
ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑM1
ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍM2
ﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻪ
ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻧﻭﺭ ﺪ . ﻢﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻞﺼﻓ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ 87
ﺶﻨﺗ ﺮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﺼﻓ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ .
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ .
ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺩ ،ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺶﻨﺗ ،ﻥ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﺎﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ
ﻲﺒﺴﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ 15,1 M1
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑM1 10,9 M2
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﻪﻨﺴﺤﻟﺍ ﺽﺮﻗ ﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ 3,65 (
ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ) ﻧﺎﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺪ ( ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ 1,46
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻲﻤﺳﺍGDP
18,9
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ 13,1 GDP
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ 1,46
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺸﮔﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﻨﺳﺍﺪﺷﺭ 4,38
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱ
3,65
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
0,37
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ 0,52
ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ 13,1
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ 5,11 ﺎﻫ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻡﻮﻴﻤﻳﺮﭘ 0,68
ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ 6,52
ﻬﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻊﺑﺮﻣﺮﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ 0,19 ﻥﺍﺮ
ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ 0,78
ﻞﻛ ﻊﻤﺟ 100
4 - ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻨﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻢﻫ ،ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻣ ﻥﻮﭼ
ﻥﻮﻨﻴﻛ ) 1973 ( ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ، ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻱ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
. ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺮﺘﭙﻣﻮﺷ ﺕﺎﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ )
1911 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻻﻮﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺪـﻧﺍ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻂﻠـﺴﻣ ﺪﻳﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻝﺎـﻌﻓ ﺮﮕﻳﺯﺎـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻦﻳﻮﻟ ﻭ ﮓﻨﻴﻛ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ )
1993 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﻢـﻫ ﻚـﻳﺮﺗﺎﭘ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
) 1996 (،
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺣ ،ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
