محدودیت‌های نظام‌مندی در سیستم‌های توابع تقاضای انعطاف‌پذیر: مطالعه‌ی موردی تقاضای انرژی بخش خانگی کشور

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

: ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ

ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﮕﻧﺎﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺩﺭﻮﻣ

ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺩﻭﺍﺩ

*

ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻕﺩﺎﺻ ﻡﺎﻣﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ )

ﻉ ( ، ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ manzoor@isu.ac.ir

ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻲﻠﻋ

،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ،ﻱﺮﮕﻠﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ

ali.jadidzadeh@ucalgary.ca

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

27 / 8 / 88 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

25 / 5 / 91

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃﺯﺎﮔ ،ﻕﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫ

) ﺖـﻔﻧ ﺖـﻔﻧ ،ﺪﻴﻔـﺳ ﻊﻳﺎـﻣﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﺯﺎـﮔ

( ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﮕﻧﺎﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ

» ـﻳﺍ ًﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﺪ

ﻝﺁ ) (AIDS

« ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ

ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪـﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪـﻫﺩ

. ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻲﻜﻴـﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻱﺪـﻨﻣ

» ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ

« ،

» ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ «

ﻭ

» ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ « ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ

،ﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺖﻴﻌﺒﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ

. ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

» ءﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ « ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻝﺁ ) (AIDS

ﻲـﻣ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

» ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ «

ﻭ

» ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ «

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ

. ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ) 1350 - 1384 ( ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ

ﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺾـﻘﻧ ﻱﺪـﻨﻣ

ﺶﺸﻛ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻬﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺵﻮﺨﺘﺳﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

.

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL C3, C51, Q41, Q43

ﻩژﺍﻭﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻡﺮﻓ: ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ؛ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ؛ﻝﺁ ﻣ

ﻱﺪﻨ .

* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ .

ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ

ﺎـﻫ ﺯﺎـﮔ ،ﻕﺮـﺑ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﮕﻧﺎـﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴـﺒﻃ ﺎـﻫ

) ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﺎـﺑ ﻊﻳﺎــﻣ ﺯﺎـﮔ ﻭ ﺯﺎﮔ ﺖﻔﻧ ،ﺪﻴـﻔﺳ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ

ﻲــﻣ ﻊـــﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺪﻧﻮــﺷ

( ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 1350 - 1384 ﺭﺍﺮــﻗ ﻞــﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪــﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻲــﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮــﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ؛ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲ

ﻞـﻣﺎﺣ ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ

ﺎﻫ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮـﺘﻬﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .

ﻉﺍﻮـﻧﺍ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ

ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ

» ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻝﺁ

) (AIDS

1« ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ

.

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺩﺮﺧ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﺑ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪـﻨﻣ ﻱ

ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ )2

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

3ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ، ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻭ4

(5

ﺍﻭ ﻝﻮﻔﻐﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﻊﻗ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﺎﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺳﺭ . ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ،ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻱ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮـﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻲﻃﺎﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻱ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ .

1 - ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺷ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮـﺷ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻱ .

ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺶﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﻳﻮﮔ )

1 ( ،ﻲـﻨﮕﻤﻫ

) 2 ( ﻊﻤﺟ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ،6

) 3 ( ،ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ) 4 ( ،ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ )

5 ( ﺤﻧﺍ ﺎﻨ ﻭ ) 6 ( ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ .

ﻲﻣ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻁﺮـﺷ ﻪـﺳ ،ﺪﻧﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﻴﮔﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ7

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻁﻭﺮـﺷ ،ﻝﺎـﺣﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ

،ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲـﻤﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻭ

ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﮔﺩﺎـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ .

ﻡﺮﻓ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

،ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

1-The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).

2- Neoclassical regularity conditions.

3- Positivity.

4-Monotonicity.

5-Curvature.

6-Adding up.

7-Global.

ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺖﻳﺎﻋﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

ﻛ ﺪـﻨﻨ . ﺖـﻧﺭﺎﺑ ) 2002

1( ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ، ـﻨﻛ

ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺎﻫ

:

» ...

ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻱ

ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ،ﻲﺑﺎﻳ

ﻱ

ﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﮕﻧﺎﮔﻭﺩ ﺒ

ﻩﺩﻮ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖـﺳﺭﺩﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺩﻮﺑ .

« ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺰﻠﺘـﺴﻣ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻪـﺑﻮﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﺎﻫ

» ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ «

ﻪﺒﺷ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ .

ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ،ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﻅﻮﺤﻠﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺍﺭ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺮﻌﻘﺗ ﻞﺻﺍ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺖﻳﺎﻋﺭ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

. ﻝﺎﺣ ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻲﻳ ﻁﺮـﺷ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺍﺭ )

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

( ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ؟ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺶﻴﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺲﭙﺳ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ًﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﺰـﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻳﺍﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺍ

) 1998

2(

ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ؛ﻢﻴﻨﻛ )

n n´

( ﻲﻜـﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ،S

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻪـﺑ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱ ﻪـﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :

) 1 (

C B S= +

ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ B

n n´

ﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ C

n´n

ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺮـﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ .

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﻛ

ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ

ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ

» S ﻪﺒﺷ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ

« ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﺰﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳﺍﺭ )

1998 ( ﻻ ﻩﻮﻴﺷ ﻪﺑ )

1978

3( ﺰـﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺭﻮـﻳﺩ ﻭ )

1987

4( ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ،

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ،ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ K

K ¢ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ -

ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ S ﻱ

) 1 ( ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ K

ﻲﺜﻠﺜﻣ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻚﻳ

n n´

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ًﺎﻌﻄﻗ ،ﺖﺳﺍ K

K ¢ ﻪﺒـﺷ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻚﻳ -

ﻦﻴـﻌﻣ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ .

،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ B

ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ K

ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ C :

C K K B=- ¢-

ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﺟ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺎ ﻭ B

ﺯﺍ C

ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ K

ﻪﺑ C ﻲﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ؛ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

B

1-Barnett, William A.

2-Ryan and Wales.

3-Lau.

4-Diewert and Wales .

ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻱ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ K

ﻩﺩﺯ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ًﺎﻨﺌﻤﻄﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ S

ﻱ

ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺮﻫ ـ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺍ

ﻪﺒﺷ ـ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ

.

ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎﻫ ﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﻱ

ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻤﻫﺎﺷ ﻭ ﺰﻴﺘﻟﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ )

2005b

1( ﻥﺎﻳﺍﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ

ﺰﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ) 1998 ( ﻲﻨﻴﻜﺳﺎﻣ ﻭ )

1999

2( ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻜـﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﺸﻫ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪـﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻘﺘـﺸﻣ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ

ﺮﻧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘــﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖــﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻲــﻣ ﻪــﻟﺎﻣ

ﺪــﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺱﻼــﮔﺍﺩ ،ﻱﺮــﮕﻳﺩ

) 1980

3( ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻟﺁ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﺍ

. ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺖـﻳﺰﻣ

ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎﻫ ﻪﺒﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ

، ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺮﻌﻘﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻁﺮﺷ ،ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

) ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺪﻳﺪﺟ 1386

.(

2 - ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺹﻮـﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ

ﺭﺩ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ

؛ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻫ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺪﻧﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻚـﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ، ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ

ﺪـﻨﻣ ﻱ

ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ )

ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ( ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﺎـﻫ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣﺎـﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺍﺭ

ﺩﺮﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ ) ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺪﻳﺪﺟ 1386

.(

ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﺬﭘ

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺮﻳ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻱ

ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻠﻣﺎﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻲ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ،ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻭﺩ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﺩﻮﺷ .

2 - 1 - ﻡﺮﻓ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ،ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻤﻫﺎﺷ ﻭ ﺰﺘﻴﻟﺮﺳ )

2004 (،

ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺞﻨﭘ ﻥﻮﺌﻟ ـ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻒﻴﺗ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ،ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ گﻮﻠـﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ،ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻣ ،ﻝﺁ

ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﻭﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖﻧﺭﻻ ﺲﻜﻠﻓ ﻱ

ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ

1-Serletis and Shahmoradi . 2-Moschini.

3-Douglas et al.

ﺪﺷ ﻩ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻪﻛ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻲﻜﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﻚﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ،ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﺖﻳﺎﻋﺭ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﺩﺎﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ

،ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﻱ ) ،ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻭ (

ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺞﻨﭘ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻗﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

. ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺪﺷ

ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

، ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺾﻘﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻈﻨﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛﺮﻫ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ

. ﺭﺩ

ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻉﺍﻮـﻧﺍ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻨﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ

،

ﻩﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻞﺣ

ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺯ

ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻃﺎـﻘﻧ

ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻕﺪﺻ ﻱ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

.

2 - 2 - ﻪﻤﻴﻧ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ

ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎﻳﺍ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

1

،ﺖـﺷﺬﮔ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻦﻴـﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﻻﺎﻘﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻝﺎﻏﺯ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ،ﻡﺎﺧ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺍﺭ ﮓﻨﺳ

ﻡﺮـﻓ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺮﻴﮔﺍﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

» ﻪﻳﺭﻮﻓ

2« ﻭ

» ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﺒﻧﺎـﺠﻣ ﻝﺁ

) (AIM

3« ﻭ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪـﻨﻣ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺯ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘ

ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ .

3 - ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺁ

) (AIDS

٤

» ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺁ

) (AIDS « ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺭﻮﺒﻟﻮﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘﻳﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ5

1980 ﺪﺷ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ

. ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ AIDS

ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

:

) 2 (

n

i i ik k i

k

s a ln p b (ln y ln P), i , ,n

=

= +

å

b + - =

1

, ,n 1

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ln P

ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ :

) 3 (

n n n

k k kj k j

k k j

ln P a a ln p ln p ln p

= = =

= ⁰+

å

+

å å

b

1 1 1

1 2

1-Serletis, Apostolos and Asghar Shahmoradi. "Semi-Nonparametric Estimates of Interfuel Substitution in U.S. Energy Demand." Department of Economics, University of Calgary, 2006.

2-Fourier.

3-Asymptotically Ideal Mode.

4- The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).

5-Deaton and Muellbauer .

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 2 (

i ، ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ s ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

،ﻡﺍi ،ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩy pk

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺍk

(a, b, )b ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺪﺷ

ﻩ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـــﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـــﺻ

ij ji for all i, j) b = b

(

n n ﻭ

k ij

k₌ a = , i₌ b = for all j)

å

1 1

å

1 0

ﻭ

n i

i₌ b =

å

1 0

( ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪــﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻪــﺑ ﻲــﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﺎــﻫ

ﺕﺭﻮــﺻ

n )

j₌ b =ij for all i

å

1 0 (

ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

. ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ،ﻻﺎـﻛn

ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩAIDS

(

^n2+3n-2

)

²

ﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻨ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪ .

ﮕﻧﺎـﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

، ﻭi ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧk ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻱ

ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

.

،ﺖﻟﻮﻬﺳ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻳﺰﻳﻮﻳﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ،ﻕﺮـﺑ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﻪﺳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ﺎﻫ

) ﻊﻳﺎﻣ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻞﻴﺋﻭﺯﺎﮔ ،ﺪﻴﻔﺳ ﺖﻔﻧ (

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺍﺭ .

4 - ﻁﺮﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﻝﺁ

) ( AIDS

ﺍﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳ

) 1998 ( ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺖـﻬﺟ ، ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻪـﻳﺍﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻌـﺿﻮﻣ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ ij

ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻜـﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ )AIDS

ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ 2 ( ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ :

) 4

( ) ( ) ^{( )}

(

ij ij i i ij j j i i i j

S = b - a -b a₀ d + a -b a₀ a -b a₀ -b b a₀

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

i, j=1, , n, n

ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ،

i= j

، ﻩﺎـﮔ ﻥﺁ

d =ij 1

ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻭ

i¹ j

، ﻩﺎـﮔ ﻥﺁ

d =ij 0

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺰﻠﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳﺍﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ )

1998 (

، ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻌـﺿﻮﻣ

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ﺮـﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ K

ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ B

، ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ

ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺩ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ؛ﺩﺮﻛ ij ﻱ

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻡﺍ ﺖﺴﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ B

ﺯﺍ :

) 5

( ) ( ) ( ) ^{( )}

(

ij KK¢ ij ai b ai ij aj b aj ai b ai b b ai j

b = - + - ₀ d - - ₀ - ₀ + ₀

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ i, j=1,, , n, n .

ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ n=3

) ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﺳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ (

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱ

) 5 ( ،

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻳﺯ

ﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 4 ( ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 6 (

0

k a b a (a b a ) b a

k k (a b a )(a b a ) b b a

k k a b a (a b a ) b a

b = - + - - - +

b = - - - - +

b = - - + - - - +

2 2 2

11 11 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

12 11 21 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 0

2 2 2 2

22 21 22 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 0

ﺕﻼﻤـﺟ ﻪﻛ kij

ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺩ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ K

. ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﻪـﻧﻮﮔ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ )

7 - 1 (

ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ،ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ b₁₃

، b₂₃ ﻭ b₃₃ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻮﺷ

ﻧ ﺪ .

5 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺍﻮـﻧﺍ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻉ

ﻞـﻣﺎﺣ ﺎـﻫ ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ ﻱ )

1 (

ﻪﺑ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﻱ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ

ﺯﺎـﮔ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﺖﻛﺮـﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻠﻴﻤﻜﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻴﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ) ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ (

ﺖﻔﻧ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ ﻭ )

ﻩﺩﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ

( ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .

ﻭﺩ ﻩﺭ ﻱ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ 1350

ﺎﺗ 1384 ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ 35

ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺟ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺩﺮـﻓ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﻛ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱ ﻱ

ﺬﺧﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ،ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻞﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ،ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﺮﻫ

ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ

1.

ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﺎـﺑ ﻊﻳﺎـﻣ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻞﻴﺋﻭﺯﺎﮔ ،ﺪﻴﻔﺳ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻧﺭﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ )

1980

2( ﺎﻳﺰﻳﻮﻳﺩ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ3

ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺐـﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻊﻳﺎـﻣ ﺯﺎـﮔ ﻭ ﻞـﻴﺋﻭﺯﺎﮔ ،ﺪﻴﻔـﺳ ﺖـﻔﻧ ،ﻲـﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎـﮔ ،ﻕﺮـﺑ ﻪﻛ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﺎﻘﻣ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﺮﻳﺩ

ﻞـﻣﺎﺣ ﺎـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﻡﺎـﺧ ﺖـﻔﻧ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻪﻜﺸﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺭﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ .

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻡﺎﺧ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﻜﺸﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ .

6 - ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻢﻬــﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎــﻌﻣ ﻢﺘــﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻴــﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﻮــﻈﻨﻣ ﻪــﺑ )

2 ( ﻝﺪــﻣ ﻚــﻳ ﺕﺭﻮــﺻ ﻪــﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ،

ﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺴﻳﻮﻧﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺳﺎﻛﻮﺘ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ

. ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ui

ﺖـﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﻢﻴﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ

ﺩﻮﺷ u»N(O,s²I) ﻪﻛ

ﻭ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣO s²I

1 - ﺽﻭﺮﻔﻣ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

, ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺍﺬﻟ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ

) (CPI ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ، ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . 2-Barnett.

3-Divisia Index.

ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ n n´

ﻭﻮﻛ ـ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻄﺧ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﻥﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ،ﺖـﺳﺎﻫﺎﻄﺧ ﺲﻧﺎـﻳﺭﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻚﻴﺘﺳﺎﻛﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ :

) 7 (

( )

t t t

s =g v ,J +u

ﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪ s=(s , ... ,s )₁ n ¢

( ) (

n

)

،

g v, g (v, ), ... ,g (v, ) ¢

J = ₁ J J

i ﻭ g ( v, )J

ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ ) 2 ( ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ V

ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ J

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ

.

ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺽﻭﺮﻓ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ut

ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﻱﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ t

ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﻱﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺟ ﻲﻳ ﻊـﻤﺟ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ ،ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺩﺮﻔﻨﻣ ﺕﻻﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭﻮﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻭ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺍﻮﺨﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ

) ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪـﺳ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ

(

ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ .

ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ،ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻑﺬـﺣ ﻱ

ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪـﺷ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ .

ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻱ ﺽﻭﺮﻓ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ut

ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ

ﺖﺳﺎﻄﺧ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ .

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺟ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ،ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ si

£ £

0 1

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺎﻄﺧ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ًﺎﻘﻴﻗﺩ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ

. ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﻝﺎﺣﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ

ﻚﻣ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺳﺪﻳﻮﻳﺩ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ـﻨﻴﻛ

ﻥﻮ ) 1993

1( ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﺮـﮔﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ 0

ﺎﻳ 1 ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺐـﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲـﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﺎـﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ

ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣAIDS )

9 ( ﺧ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮ .

ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ TSP/GiveWin (version 4.5)

ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ

ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

) (SUR ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ2

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ

:

- ـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ

tﻪ ˆ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻪـﺑ ،s

ﻲﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺪﺷﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ؛ﺩﻮﺷ

ˆt

s ³0 ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﺎـﻫ t

، ﺭﺩ

ﻦﻳﺍ

؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

1-Davidson and Mackinnon (1993).

2-Simingly Unrelataed Regresion.

- ـﺗ ﻖﺘـﺸﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻟﻭﺰﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻﺮﻴﻏ ﺎﻫ

، ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ

ˆ i

V(p, m) p

¶ ¶ £0

.

- ﻁﺮﺷ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻪﺒﺷ ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ

.

7 - ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻝﺁ

) (AIDS

ﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ

ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﺲﭙـﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺪﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻱ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ

.

7 - 1 - ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻝﺁ

ﻁﺮﺷ ﻝ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃﺯﺎـﮔ ،ﻕﺮـﺑ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺳ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ AIDS

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺎﻫ ) ﻊﻳﺎﻣ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻞﻴﺋﻭﺯﺎﮔ ،ﺪﻴﻔﺳ ﺖﻔﻧ (

ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﺩﻮـﺷ .

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻊﻤﺟ ،ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ :

) 8

ij ji ( b = b

a₁+a₂+a₃=1

j j j

b + b + b_{1 2 3} =1

i i i

b + b + b =_{1 2 3} 1 b₁+b₂+b₃=0

ﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ

ﺍﺪﻌﺗ ، ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ

،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﻱﺎــﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻞﻣﺎــﺷ ﻪــﻛ ﺩﻮــﺑ ﺪــﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖــﺸﻫ ﺮــﺑﺍﺮﺑ

, ,

b₁₁ b₁₂ b₂₂ ،

a , a , a_{0 1 2} ﻭ

b , b_{1 2}

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 5 ( ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﺮﻛ ﺩ :

a a a

b b b

b = -b - b b = -b - b b = b + b + b

= - -

= - -

13 11 12

23 12 22

33 11 12 22

3 1 2

3 1 2

2 1

ﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ

ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺚﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﻭ )

6 ( ـﻤﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻦﻴ

ﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ .

ﻲـﻣ ،ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻱ :

) 9

[ ]

(

s₁=a₁+b₁₁ln p₁+b₁₂ln p₂- b +b( _{11 12})ln p₃+b ln y ln P₁ -

[ ]

s₂=a₂+b₁₂ln p₁+b₂₂ln p₂- b +b( _{12 22})ln p₃+b ln y ln P₂ - lnP ﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﺖﻤ

ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ ) 3 ( ﻪـﺳ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ :

) 10 (

ln P a a ln p a ln p ( a a ) ln p

[ ln p ln p ln p ln p ( ) ln p ln p ln p ln p ln p ln p ( ) ln p ln p

( ) ln p ln p ( ) ln p ln p ( )

ln p ln p

= + + + - -

+ b + b - b + b

+ b + b - b + b

- b + b - b + b + b + b + b

12

0 1 1 2 2 1 2 3

11 1 1 12 1 2 11 12 1 3

12 1 2 22 2 2 22 2 3

11 12 1 3 12 22 2 3 11 12 22

3

1 1 2

2

3]

ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )

9 ( ﺭﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﺳ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

) 1 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ .

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ

، ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺁ

ﻪ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ،ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻱ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ

ﻪﻛ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ

ﻢﻴﻫﺩ .

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺜﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻁﺎـﻘﻧ ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒ

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ˆi

s ³0 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ i=1, 2, 3 ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ

. ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ )

1 ( ﺭﺩ ، 32 ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ 35

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ .

ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻁﺮﺷ

ﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﻌـﺻﺮﻴﻏ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻭﺰﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ .

ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪﺳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪـﻛ

ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍAIDS

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ 11 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :

) 11 (

[ ]

b b b

AIDS b

V (p, y)=p₁^{- 1}×p₂^{- 2} ×p₃^{1+ 2}× ln y ln P-

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ

ﻱﺎ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ln P ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﻱ ) 10 ( ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ )

1 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ

35 ﺾـﻘﻧ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .

ﻁﺮﺷ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴـﻌﻣ ﻪﺒـﺷ ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ .

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ )

1 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻁﺮﺷ ، ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ

ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ 33

ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺾﻘﻧ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ

.

7 - 2 - ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺁ

ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ

ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ )

4 ( ﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻞﻴﺼﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷ ﻩ

ﻁﺮـﺷ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌـﺿﻮﻣ

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻝﺁ

ﺪﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭ ﻊـﻤﺟ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﮕﻤﻫ ،ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ،ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ) 8 ( ﺖﻳﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ، ﻱﺎـﻫ

) 6 ( ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ .

ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻡﻮﺳ ﻥﻮﺘﺳ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

) 1 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ .

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ﺯﺍ ءﺎﻨﺜﺘـﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

b12

ﻳﺎـﺳ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮ ﺭﺍﺩ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ . ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

) ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 ( ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :

- ﺭﺩ 31 ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ 35 ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ .

- ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ 35

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺾﻘﻧ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻁﺮﺷ ،ﻪﻄﻘﻧ .

- ﺭﺩ 34 ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ 35 ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ ﻁﺮﺷ ،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﺖﺳ

.

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ- ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻝﺁ ) ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ 84 - 1350 (

ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻲﻌﺿﻮﻣ ﺪﻴﻘﻣﺮﻴﻏ

ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ

) 0,000 ( 1,95240 )

0,009 ( 124,035 -

a₀

0,000) ( 0,656356 )

0,017 ( 14,4877 a₁

) 0,000 ( 0,530901 )

0,001 ( 19,2980 a₂

) 0,000 ( 0,081557 -

) 0,032 ( 1,03857 -

b₁₁

) 0,782 ( 0,00719460 )

0,002 ( 1,43081 -

b₁₂

) 0,000 ( 0,163816 -

) 0,001 ( 1,58320 -

b₂₂

) 0,000 ( 0,105406 )

0,000 ( 0,149136 b₁

) 0,000 ( 0,144288 )

0,000 ( 0,155575 b₂

4 ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺾﻘﻧ 3

4 ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺾﻘﻧ 3

1 ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺾﻘﻧ 32

ﺰﺘﻧﺍﺮﭘ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ

P-value

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .

8 ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺾﻘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺕﺎﻌﺒﺗ-

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﺾﻘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﭼﺩ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻬﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ .

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ،ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ .

ﻦﺷﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻥﺪﺷ

ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻤﻴﺸﻳﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻳﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

.

ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺾﻘﻧ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻭ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ

ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺾﻘﻧ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﻢﻴﺘـﺴﻫ . ﺭﺍﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ )

1 ( ﺶـﺸﻛ ،ﺖـﺳﻮﻴﭘ

ﮔﺎﻧ ﺶﻬﺟ ﺭﺎﭼﺩ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻲﻧﺎﻬ

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ

1350 ﺎـﺗ 1354 ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮــﺷ ﻪــﻛ ﺪﻫﺎــﺷ ،ﻁﺎــﻘﻧ ﺮﻳﺎــﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪــﺷ ﺾــﻘﻧ ﻱﺪــﻨﻣ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﻢﻴﺘﺴﻫ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ، ) 2 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺶﻬﺟ ﺭﺎﭼﺩ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﺸﻳﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺖﺳﺍ .

ﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤ )

3 ( ﻭ ) 4 ( ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻬﺑﺎـﺸﻣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ،ﺖـﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ

ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻲﻨﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﺸﻳﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﻓ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻲـﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺯﺎـﮔ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ .

9 ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ- ﺮﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺍ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻂﻳ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ )

1 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺩ ﺎـﻄﺧ ﺕﻼـﻤﺟ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

. ،ﺎـﻄﺧ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

:

) 12 (

t t t

u =Ru _-1+e

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ R=[R ]ij

ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺴﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻣﺎﻧ

et

ﺎـﺑ ﻪﺘـﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧﺎﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺮـﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭﻮﻛ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ .

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻱ

) 7 ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ t-1 ﺏﺮـﺿ ﻭ

ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺴﻛ ﻭR

) 7 ( ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﺩﺯ : ) 13

t t t t t (

s =g(v , ) RsJ + _-1-Rg(v_-1, ) eJ +

ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ ) 13 ( ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ )

2 ( ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ .

ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﻪـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﻮـﻃ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺮﺳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻃﺎﻘﻧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﺾـﻘﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

، ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺩ 34 ﻁﻭﺮـﺷ ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ ﺎـﻨﺤﻧﺍ

ﺾـﻘﻧ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮـﻨﻜﻳ ﻭ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺮﺳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺢ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺪﻨﻣ ﻱ ) ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ 84 - 1350 (

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﺾﻘﻧ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ءﺎﻨﺤﻧﺍ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ

ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ

34 34

2 AIDS

10 - ﻪﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ

ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ

ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺚﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ

ﻱ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﻥﺁ

ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .

ﺍﺬﻟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻖﻓﺆﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺁ

ﻲﮕﻧﺎﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﺘﺴﻫ ﻥ

ﻪﻛ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺎﺳﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻱﺯ

ﻢﻴﺳﺎﻨﺸﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ .

ـﺳ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺌ

ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻝﺍﻮ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻱ ﻪﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻪـﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻩﺩﺭﻮﺧ

،ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

،ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ؟ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ

ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎـﻫ )

ﻊﻃﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮـﺧ (،

ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ )

ﺎﻤﻴﺸﻳﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻦﻟﺁ (

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

1ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻦﺴﻨﺘﺴﻳﺮﻛ ﻭ ﺯﻮﻴﻛ )

1980

2(

، ﻡﺮﻓ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺼﺤﻨﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﻱ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻩ

ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ؛ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻡﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺮﻳﺬﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ

ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ ﻘﻧ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﺎ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻁ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺎﻫ . 3

ﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻱ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱ

ﻪﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻲﻃﺎﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻣ ﻪ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮـﺷ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪـﻨﻣ

ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ

ﺍﺮﭼ ؛ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻛ

ﺎـﻜﺗﺍ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﻭ ﺖـﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃﺯﺎﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻪﻛ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺣ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻳ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻁﻭﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺑ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻥﺁ ﺖﺳﺎﻫ . ﻲﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

، ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃﺯﺎـﮔ ﻪـﻛ

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺶﺸﻛﺮﭘ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ

ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ .

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﺎﺛ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﺖﺑ

، ﺎﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮـﻓ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻱﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮕﻧﺎﺧ ﺎﻫ

، ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃﺯﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻕﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ

-1 ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻩﺩﺭﻮﺧ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻜﻤﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ

ﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺰﮔﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻪﻋ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻛ ﻱ ﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﺩ . 2- Caves and Christensen (1980).

-3 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﻱ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ

، ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ )

1388 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .