The key task in the first phase is the development of a formula to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. Confidence should also be built in non- military areas and multilateral security dialogue should be promoted among the Northeast Asian countries. In addition, inter-Korean economic cooperation should be institutionalized, while laying the foundation for economic cooperation in Northeast Asia.
Creating a Formula for Solving the North Korean Nuclear Issue The first North Korean nuclear crisis was defused with the 1994 Agreed Framework (Geneva Agreement). The second nuclear crisis, however, emerged in October 2002 when the North acknowledged a clandestine enriched uranium weapons program in violation of the Agreed Framework.
The tensions triggered by the nuclear standoff have been since aggravated further by the North’s withdrawal from the NPT, resuming operation of the nuclear reactors, and announcing its possession of nuclear weapons.
Despite the significant difference in positions of North Korea and the United States, the two nations fully understand the necessity and inevitability of negotiations. Both will therefore ultimately seek a solution through the Six-Party Talks, despite fluctuating progress. Both the US and North Korea are well aware that without dialogue, they cannot find a contact point between the respective preconditions on which each insist.
If the two countries continue the circle of intermittent halt and resumption of talks, key problems are the form of talks, order of implementation of agreements, and compensation for North Korea.
As for the form of talks, the momentum for the Six-Party Talks must be maintained. Regarding the order of implement of agreements, the relevant countries can draw up a road map that vertically and horizontally links
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North Korea’s obligations and compensations proposed by the US and the international community by time and issue. Depending on the result of negotiation, the parties can reach either an agreement on each issue or a comprehensive agreement on all the issues.
North Korea’s foremost obligation is to discard its plutonium and enriched uranium weapons programs. In particular, the North should accept rigorous inspection of its nuclear facilities and other suspicions placed by the international community.
Also high on agenda will be how to compensate North Korea for giving up its WMD. Negotiating countries could offer a security guarantee to the North within a multilateral framework, which means those countries in the Six-Way Talks expressly undertake not to wage a pre-emptive attack against North Korea with nuclear or conventional forces as long as North Korea does not commit aggression. Another option is to adopt a “US-North Korea Friendship and Cooperation Treaty” and include a provision guaranteeing the safety of the North regime.
In addition, a comprehensive measure to support the development of the North Korean economy should be developed. As a first step, the US should lift economic sanctions imposed on North Korea and remove the communist country from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, thereby providing the North to have access to the international capital market.
Relevant countries could also form an international consortium for energy development projects in North Korea such as the construction of a thermal power plant or the linkage of the Siberian LNG pipelines to South Korea via North Korea. Facilitation of inter-Korean economic cooperation projects, along with multilateral assistance programs, could inject fresh vigor into the North Korean economy. Japanese economic compensation following the normalization of diplomatic ties between North Korea and Japan could also be used for North Korea’s economic development.
Confidence-Building in Northeast Asia over Non-Military Matters To create a suitable condition for arms control in Northeast Asia, confidence should be built over non-military areas focusing on the following measures:
The countries in this region should seek ways to utilize science and technology for non-military purposes. Such ways include sharing information collected by commercial satellites on environment, climate, agriculture, natural disasters, and the surveillance and prediction data of earthquakes.
The countries should share military intelligence by publishing national defense white papers, disclosing the status quo of military forces and defense budget, noticing major military exercises and movements, and inviting observer groups. In addition, a limited “Open Skies”scheme should be implemented for non-military purposes such as control of environmental degradation, prevention of natural disasters, and enhancement of agricultural production. Moreover, a maritime accident prevention treaty involving six countries can be pursued.
The six countries should form a joint delegation to send to regions such as Europe, the Sinai Peninsula, the US, Russia, Ecuador, and Peru where arms have been successfully controlled to learn arms control best practices.
Facilitation of Civilian-Level Multilateral Security Dialogue in Northeast Asia
As a civilian-level security consultative body in the Asia-Pacific region, the Council for Security Cooperation on the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) is discussing preventive diplomacy and confidence building. The
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Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), a semi-governmental organization for multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia, is also operating.
First of all, CSCAP and NEACD should be regularized and their agenda solidified to form the foundation for security cooperation in this region. It is especially important to involve North Korea in these meetings.
Countries in Northeast Asia should make North Korea understand that participation in multilateral security meetings would improve its image in the international community and help guarantee regime security and economic development. To this end, the parties to NEACD should discuss how to engage North Korea in these meetings.
Laying Foundation for Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia To lay the foundation for economic cooperation in Northeast Asia, an institutional framework for economic cooperation should be created and core economic cooperation projects should be determined. To begin with, as the basis for the Northeast Asian logistics hub and network, the Incheon International airport and Busan and Gwangyang ports should be developed into Northeast Asia’s transportation hubs. At the same time, for cooperation in the financial sector, the Korean financial sector should become more sophisticated and conglomerated, creating the conditions to launch a “Northeast Asian Development Bank.”
In the meantime, realizing the concept of a Northeast Asian business hub requires an appropriate institutional and legal environment and a system of nurturing human resources. In addition, countries in the region should prepare the ground for building a cooperative regime in the information and communication field by integrating the region’s industrial standards and setting up a consultative organization for IPR protection. The establishment of network of ethnic Korean entrepreneurs overseas is also required.
Phase II: Expanding Security and Economic Cooperation in