Although the Six-Party Talks have already erected a platform for setting up a multilateral security cooperation system in Northeast Asia, given the complex situation and fragile foundations in Northeast Asia, conditions here for multilateral security cooperation cannot possibly be compared with those in Europe. We cannot expect to set up multilateral security cooperation mechanisms in the blink of an eye. Therefore, setting up a security cooperation mechanism in Northeast Asia in future should be
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guided by the principle of “step by step.”Given the historic realities as well as the difference in political system and economic development among the countries in the region, only an approach based on patience and gradualism will contribute to setting up a multilateral security cooperation mechanism in Northeast Asia. It means that all countries here could gradually set up security cooperation mechanisms which play the leading role in this region. All sides could develop a multifunctional platform on the basis of the Six-Party Talks with the aim of promoting dialogue and increased trust, such as the direct dialogue mechanism between North Korea and the United States, the dialogue platform between North Korea and South Korea, the aim of which is to carry out peaceful reunification, and the consultation platform focusing on denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula joined by the United States, China, Japan, Russia, the ROK, North Korea, and the Europe Union.
A regional cooperative security system is different from a collective security system such as a military alliance. It tries to ensure regional security by dialogue and the rule of law. In the end we will have to establish a comprehensive mechanism in Northeast Asia, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which will address various security issues, including arms control, preventive diplomacy, human rights, and economic and environmental security.
However as a step towards such a comprehensive system, we can envision various intermediate systems which are consistent with the historical and political background of the region.
From a Chinese perspective, a security cooperation mechanism in Northeast Asia in the future would have the following characteristics:
It would coexist with the U.S.-centered alliance structure. The alliance system in Northeast Asia does not get rid of the Cold War relics, but more and more embraces the character of the Cold War. The United
States continues to preserve and consolidate the “hub-and-spoke” bilateral alliance system with emphasis on the U.S.-Japan alliance. As the U.S.-led bilateral military alliance will continue for quite a long time, the multilateral security cooperation mechanism is not supposed to replace but supplement the existing bilateral system in order to achieve a win-win end. The crux of the problem is the co-existence of an “old base,” which is both exclusive and antagonistic, and an inclusive, all-involved “new platform”with common interests.
Two “beyond.”First, in terms of the main topic, the building of the multilateral security cooperation mechanism in Northeast Asia should go beyond the North Korean nuclear issue, which is only a part, but not the whole of the Northeast Asia’s security cooperation. There are other issues that should be taken into consideration, such as regional cooperation on energy, cross-border crimes, and bilateral military trust, etc. In this sense, North Korea also has the right and is qualified to take part in the regional cooperation. Second, in terms of time, the multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia should go beyond any timetable. Some countries seem to be leaning towards requesting a timetable for setting up a security cooperation mechanism. This would not help matters. As the Six-Party Talks in the future will be more complicated and difficult, the process of establishing a security mechanism for Northeast Asia by settling the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula will also be difficult and long. So the building of the mechanism should go ahead steadily and surely.
A stable and healthy Sino-U.S. relation is the key for the future of a Northeast Asia security mechanism. Now there are some discussions focusing on the role of the United States and China both respectively and mutually. Some people think that the U.S. mono-polar security
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order will provide stability in the region. Others think that China should and could play a more important role in the regional security.
Some China scholars argue that both the United States and China could work together to jointly shape the regional future.10)On the one hand, actually the United States has been the leader in the region for over five decades, and it will continue to want to be the leader even in an era in which China is rising so fast. Many Americans still perceive that stability and cooperation cannot occur without strong U.S. leadership, saying “American power and presence have helped to keep traditional power rivals in the region from engaging in significant conflict and have reassured smaller states who have traditionally been vulnerable to major regional wars.”11)The U.S.-ROK and U.S.-Japan are still strong, and China has not yet become the regional leader in Northeast Asia. On the other hand, China has no intention to be the leader and change the status quo in the region. Any discussion about security cooperation in this region mechanism must cover the role of the United States. Any regional security arrangement in Northeast Asia that does not have U.S. involvement would be impossible.12) It is thus certain that the United States and China can coexist in Northeast Asia even if there is an element of “strategic competition” in their mutual relationship. A candid, cooperative, and constructive Sino-U.S. relation would benefit not only the United States and China but also the entire Northeast Asian region.
10) Jiemian Yang, “Seeking for a Balance between Traditional Alliance System and Multilateral Security Framework in Northeast Asia,” prepared for International Conference on the Security Cooperation Mechanism in Northeast Asia sponsored by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing on August 3-4, 2005.
11) Michael Mastanduno, “Incomplete Hegemony: the United States and Security Order in Asia,” in Asian Security Order, Muthiah Alagappa, ed. (Stanford University Press, 2003).
12) Pang Zhongying, “Building a Regional Security Mechanism,” PacNet,Pacific Forum CSIS, No. 13A, April 5, 2004.