제목: 싱가포르 해양 산업 발전에 대한 세금 및 이자율의 영향 분석. 해운회사는 동서 또는 아시아 지역을 기반으로 하는 국제적인 부문으로 약 123만 명의 선원을 고용하고 있습니다.
Introduction
Research Background and Objectives
The reason why the case study of Singapore is chosen is because Singapore is a small country in the ASEAN countries, but it is well known as one of the world's 2nd busiest ports and is a global financial center where all companies famous and world shipping giants, international banks and institutes are already registered under Singapore companies with their daily operated offices such as Maersk Lines, Mitsui & Co, Mitsubishi-Tokyo Bank, HSBC, etc.
Scopes and Data of Research
Methodologies and Structures
All the content of this thesis is mostly derived from two (2) researches that have been published in the European (International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy) and U.S.A. University/England/India international financial journals (Global Journals Inc. US) with his article "An Empirical Analysis of the Prominent Roles of Taxations in the Synchronicity on Boost of Maritime Industry in Singapore" [Vol.6, No.1, 2016. ISSN and "An Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of LIBOR Changes on the Volumes of Global Sea Trade and the Growth of the World's Gross Domestic Product – Cointegration and Causal Relationships" [Vol.16, Issue 3, 2016, Version 1.0.
Literature Reviews
- The Critical Roles and Relations of SF, WMF, WST, WGDP and Libor
- The Important Roles of SF to MI
- The Causal Nexuses between WST and WGDP
- The Activities and Impacts of WMF on WST and WGDP
- Singapore’s Case Study
- The Governmental Catalytic Roles Process of Support to EG
- The Prominent Impacts of Taxes and FE to MI
- Singapore’s Marco Policies to Support and Develop EG
- The Causal Nexuses of Singapore’s Policies to EG and Maritime Growth 20
- Data Collections
- Reasearch Methodologies
- Cointegration and Unit root tests
- Granger causality tests
- Vector Error Correction Models (VECM)
- Selected Joint Variables Model
Significant WMF contribution to WST, between 2010 and 2012 for 40% of respondents in maritime transport and overcapacity. In distinguishing the roles of the government, Reinert (1999) offers three crystal roles, firstly as a provider of institutions in the broadest sense ("establishing the rules of the game"/"ensuring a level playing field"), secondly as. Poulson et al. (2008) using the total date of the US time series from 1963 to 2004 for tax policy on growth rates included regional dummy variables, conducted a regression analysis of the relationship between taxes and EG to investigate the impact of policy variables.
Romer, et al., (2007) made a detailed investigation of the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity and the effects of tax changes by observing the biases of omitted variables to avoid resulting in inaccurate estimates of the macroeconomic effects of the changes. taxation in the postwar United States. Bell (2002) stating that since the rise of the modern environmental movement in the late 1960s, business initially saw environmental obligations as a. The more government consumes the economy, the less room there is for the private sector.
Hiemstra, et al., (1994) suggest that research should consider nonlinear theoretical mechanisms and empirical regularities when designing and evaluating models of the joint dynamics of stock prices and trading volume. Ericsson, et al., (2000) called attention to the distribution of EC tests for cointegration in the long-run relationship considered as a steady-state equilibrium, while the short-run relationship is evaluated by the magnitude of the deviation from the equilibrium. VECM can avoid the shortcomings of the VAR-based model in distinguishing between a long-run and a short-run relationship between covariates.
And when the short-term relationship between this variable and another countervariable is found, which is based on the normal F Wald test of the joint significant coefficients on the lagged terms in the unrestricted models as the null hypothesis and its alternative, then it is considered as weak Granger causality. The long-run equilibrium relationship is tested by the rate of adjustment of coefficients and based on the t-statistic of the ECTs.
Empirical Findings
The Impacts of LIBOR, SF, WST, WMF and WGDP
- Unit root tests
- Johansen, S. and Juselius, K.’s cointegration tests
- Granger causality tests
- Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
Looking at the results in model 3, the above model 4 at 5% critical value is not significant at any, at most 1, 2, so it is permissible to reject H0 and accept the alternatives. In other words, the obtained results of common variables in selected synchronous models are tested by Johansen &. Juselius will be co-integrated for WST1, LIBOR1 and WMF1 and are assumed to share a common stochastic trend and grow proportionally as they move together in long-term causalities, except for the occurrence of a short-term one between WST1 and WGDP1.
The selected synchronous model with multi-variables connected should initially be in stationary before starting Granger, the unit root test resulted in variable WBBP at level is significant and stationary and better in AIC (3.4512), but to have the same order in this synchronicity, WBBP is deliberately changed to 1st difference (WGDP1) as other joint variables with a higher R-squared value and more significant than at level (P R2=63.97%), except that residuals are assumed to be correlated and not to false issue does not lead. appears when it is also stationary. The resulting Granger causality tests are seen on the table (3) which leads us to the conclusion of the long-term relationship between WST1 to WLIR1 for all the time series of the studied period, but it is short-term with WMF1 at lag 3, while WGDP1 appears to be short-term be for all the times when joints with WST1, LIBOR1 and WMF1 variables in the synchronous model. The correct VECMs when performed must be considered two critical issues, firstly, it is recognized if the first difference of the joint variables in the synchronicity shows deterministic tendency and secondly, the optimum and criterion lag length of the VAR model is specified. .
Based on the above result in Table (4), it is confidently claimed that the long-run relationship between cointegrated variables such as WLIR1 and WST1, WGDP1 and WMF1 is strong, and this is the really better selected model. It is clearly shown that there is no long-term relationship between WST, WGDP and Libor and WMF. Since the root test of the residual unit is stated early on to be stationary, there is no spuriousness in this synchronous model.
The Impacts of Taxation Rates - Singapore case study
- Unit root tests
- ADF and PP tests for independent variables in other AR models
- Granger causality tests of Singapore case study
- Multicollinearity tests
- Homoskedascity and Heteroskedasticity disturbances
In this table, the P-values of TAXES in the BULKCA model (19), in the CTNSHIP model (20), in the OILNK model (22) and in the OTHRSHIP model (23) are different from zero and significant, which is less than 5%. These suspicious cases are captured on the CTNSHIP model (20) for variable RRATE_X2 and on the OILTNK model (22) for variable CRE_X1, and on the OTHRSHIP model (23) for variable STOCK_CO as well. By calculating the Granger causality tests via pairs, it is recognized that when it depends on the selected number of lags criteria such as max to k=7, the results change respectively.
The observation of the values of the F-Statistic and Prob., in the OILTNK (Table 13) and OTHRSHIP (Table 14) are almost the same, especially for the delayed k=7, the results can be seen in the variables RRATE_X2, CRE_X1 and STOCK_CO when using methods. The problem is that when the multicollinearity occurs, a significant variable will become insignificant by increasing the standard error and not only the perfect but also the imperfect multicollinearity, as has been proven, based on the results of P-values and ‖t. ‖ values in the table (10). These values show that the troubling multicollinearity has emerged, but most cases are imperfect and do not seriously distort the models, except for the high R2 above.
Again, the revised joined variables in the AR models are reproduced as table (13), after multicollinearity tests have been carried out without the presence of variables STOCK_CODs in the AR models (19) and (23). In table (18), it can be seen that the values of AR models clearly proved the significantly aggressive role of tax on the increased volumes of bulk carriers, container ships, oil tankers and other ships arriving at Singapore ports, while the negative impact of general cargo is on the other hand where R-squared, F-statistic and P (F-statistic) are so very insignificant. Heckman (1981) states that the omitted variables that determine choice are increasingly less correlated as the interval between choices widens, and misspecification of the heterogeneity process gives rise to an erroneous estimate of the effect of the true effect of the previous employment on the current employment probabilities.
Detection of this case is proceeded with the serial BPG test, depending on the P value, which can test whether the case of internal autocorrelations in multiple correlations of sufficient size can adversely affect the regression estimates in the model. The revised AR Models (20) after being tested, analyzed and deciphered and found, can now be resubmitted as AR Model (19a).
Conclusion
Conclusion
As evident from the above empirical findings and based on the AR model (19) and its equations, it could be argued that Singapore's corporate tax rates play a significantly prominent role in creating the increased volumes of bulk carriers, container ships, general cargo and oil tanker ships. and other ships. If the tax burden is reduced by 1.64% per year, the volume of domestic credits to the private sector will be increased to 1.20%, and the number of bulk carriers would increase by 8.821 thousand DWT, respectively.
Recommendations
Future Researches
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2012), Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from an Indian Firm, International Journal of Applied Research & Studies, Vol. 2011), A Comparison of Traditional and Neural Network Forecasting Techniques for Container Handling in the Port of Bangkok, The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics. 1981), Heterogeneity and State Dependence, in Sherwin Rosen (ed.), Studies in Labor Markets, University of Chicago Press, pp.91-140. Mar The Impact of Regulation on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis, World Development, Vol.35, No.1.
Johansen, Soren and Juselius, Katarina (1990), Maximum likelihood estimation and cointegration inference with applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.52, pp.169-210. Evidence from heterogeneous panel data of low-income countries, Financial Research, Vol.1, No.1, pp The Role of the State in Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. VU, Duc Cong; Lee, Kihwan and VU, Hoang Long (2016), An Empirical Analysis of the Prominent Roles of Taxes in Synchronization in Promoting the Maritime Industry in Singapore, IJEEP, Vol.6, No.1.
