DL/ BAO DAN SO VIET NAM PHUONG PHAP VA KET QUA
D A N G TH| LANG"'
Population forecast (PF) Is a necessary task, which has been pracNced. A correct forecast of changes of the population will help Ihe Govemment to deveiop and knfriement appropriate poli- cies, especkiliy fiolicies on social Issues as well as s<^u- ttons for developing and uti- lizing fhe human resources of ttte country.
Currently, 3 methods are applied for the population forecasr: the estimation based on the data serle, tfye appttcaHon of the population tjakince and the forecast based on fhe model of pop- ulatkin components. All these methods were applied and produced results as well as errors In order to overcome this limitation, it is necessary to combine ttte methods In the forecast practice as well as Improve the quality of the database for the population forecast, independent on the methods selected as the dominant one for this pur- pose.
[ "Trung Mm H& tr? phdt trjen doonh nghi$p vd
<i$ng d i n g (HiJI Phdf trl^n Hop i d c Kinh t ^ Vl$t
^Nam-Ldo-Campuchla).
T
heo quan diem phdt trien trong "Chien lUpc phdt tnen kinh te - xa hpi 2011-2020" dUdc thdng qua tgi Dai hpi Dang Cdng san Vipt Nam kin ihd XI, eon ngUdi dupc coi Id chd the, nguon iUc ehu yeu vd Id mpe tieu cda sU phdt trien, la yeu t d quan trong nha't, cd tfnh quyet djnh den sU phdt tnen cua mpt qud'e gia va sU phat trien eua moi qudc gia cung hUdng tdi sU phat trien eon ngUdi. Du bdo ehinh xac bien ddng dan sd se giup Nhd nUde cd nhdng chfnh sdeh thich hdp, dac biet la nhdng chfnh sdch phuc vy ddi sd'ng xa hdi, cdc giai phap phat trien vd khai ihdc tai nguyen nhan luc eua dat nUdc.1 . Mpt sd ket qua dU bao dan so' Vi^t Nam
Sd lieu dan sd chfnh xac thudng dUdc la'y td ket qua cua cdc cudc Td'ng Dieu tra dan sd (TOTDS), dUde to' chdc mUdi nam mdt l^n d Viet Nam. Day la eupe dieu tra todn bd {khdng phdi la didu tra mot so' ft de suy ra todn bd) vdi sU dau tu nhieu ve tien cua, eong sdc va phUdng phap dieu tra ngay mdt hoan thien hdn. 0 nUdc ta, cupc TDTDS va nha d dUdc tien hanh ngdy 01/4/2009 cd kinh phi len tdi tren 600 tf dong, vdi sU tham gia cda hang van ngUdi. Ket qud cudc TDTDS nay cho tha'y ddn sd Viet Nam da cd nhdng thay ddi mgnh me cd ve sd lupng, chd't lUdng cung nhU cd ca'u vd dang ehuyen d i n sang nhdng dac trUng cda ddn sd sau thdi ky qud dp. Bdn canh d d , ket qud cua TDTDS cung la eu sd danh gia mde dd chfnh xdc cua cdc dU bdo ddn sd (DBDS) trUdc khi tien hdnh TDTDS, dieu ehlnh cae so' lieu ve dan so' da cdng bd' trUdc day, vd la cd sd dang tin cay ve cac thdng tin dau vdo eho eac DBDS cac ndm sau. Day dUdc xem la mot cdn cd quan trong de xay dUng cdc chUdng trinh, chig'n lUdc, ke hoach phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi ndi ehung, phat trien ddn so', ngudn nhdn ly'e ndi rieng.
Dan eUvda Id khaeh the, vda la chu the cda moi iTnh vUc ddi sd'ng xa hdi eua dd't nUde, cda tdng vung, tdng dia phUdng. Do vay, vipc DBDS eho nhieu ndm sau ludn ludn dUde chu y, mde du sai sd dU bdo la khdng the tranh khoi, tuy thude vao thdi gian dU bao dan so (thdi gian d u bao cang ddi thi sai sd cang Idn); (2) phUdng phap dU bdo va (3) thdng tin dau vdo (phdi ddm bdo du va dung theo yeu cau cua mdi phUdng phdp dU bdo).
stf 82 (10.2012) THONG TIN & D\J BAQ KINH TE - XA HQI
KHOA HOC THONG TIN, DU BAO & CANH B A O
DBDS Viel Nam khong c h i do rieng ViOl N a m tie'n hSnh, m,1 c3 nhflng Trung tam DBDS cua Ihc gitSi cung Ihuc h i e n . C h S n g h . i n , ihpo "DU W o cMn sd'lhp'girti 1 9 9 0 " do IJOn H o p Quoc lie'n hSnh, cong ho n.im 1991, dan so V i ( i Nam nhU sau:
B.lng 1; DU h i o d.1n stf V i ? ! N a m
thm vi: ngh'in ngifai
N.im
19')0 1995 2000 2Q0r,
Dli' h.io l u a L H Q (i(>.(i<m
?•'< MO BS.GUO '17 l()ll
NiiMi giam Thong ke (,b.0\7 71 'I'K.
;•- ( , i i ttl I'M
N.1m
20 ro 2015 2020 202S
DU bao cua L H Q 1 10.021 U - l . J j O M 0 . 5 3 0 1 50.n95
N i e n giam Thong ke
8&.928
N h u vdy, xu.il ph.il diem i\6 DBDS cua Li»''ii 1 lt;p (.Jiidc khdng khdc (lud xa so vdi so' li^u cua Tong eye Tlidng kc (ndm 1')')() la hU.7 Ui(-u ngUm so vdi f.6,0 l i i r u ngUdi, ehdnh Ipch +1%). tuy n h i e n , sd li<"u DBDS Irung binh ndm 201 Odd < lu-iih 1('( h Idn so vdi sd'IH'HI i ii.i Td'ng i m Thdng ke (1 I 0 iripu ngUdi so vdi 87 irKni ngUdi, chenh lech +1 2,fi'?';.) SU khac l)ipl ciud Idn gid.i so' lipu DBDS < u.i Lien H p p Qud'c vd sd lipu chinh thde cua Tong cue Thdn;; kc Id do Lien Hpp Qude (V] khdng ddnh gia dUrtc clung lac (Inn;,; r,"u tich cUc cii.i cdng tdc ke hoach hda gia tlinli nUde ta Irong nhieu ndm qua, (l.'u l ) i ( l la Id ndm 1000 eho den nay.
Sau DBDS nay. Lien H d p Qud'e dd lid'p iu< lien hdnh DBDS khdng ehi eho Viet N a m ndi rieng ma con cho la't ed eac qud'c gia ihdnh vien vd tnan the gidi, phan theo cdc nhdm nUdc (dang phdi Inen/phdl trien/eham phdt Irien nha't).
Bang dudi day se eho kel qud DBDS tdi ndm 2050 do U N f P A ihuc hipn trong n d m 2 0 1 0 . Bang 2: DU bao dan so' den ndm 2050
Toan the gidi Khu vUc phat tnen Khu VUC dang [ih.il Irien
Chau A Dong Nam A Campuchia Inddnexia Malaixia Mianma Philfppin C H D C N D Lao Xingapo I h a i Lan D o n g T i m o Viet Nam
D a n so 2 0 1 0 , tri?u ngU6i
6.908,7 1.237,2 5.671,5 4.166,7 5B9,6 15,1 232,5
27,9 50,5 93,6 6,4 4,8 68,1
1,2 89,0
DBDS 2 0 5 0 , t r i ^ u ngU6i
9.150,0 1.275,2 9.946,0 5.231,5 7 6 6 , 0
23,8 288,1
39,7 63,4 146,2 10,7 5,2 73,4
3,2 111,7
D a n so 2050 so vdi 2010, %
132,4 103,1 140,1 125,5 r 2 9 , 9 157,6 123,9 142,3 142,3 156,2 167,2 108,3 107,8 250,0 125,5
32 THONG TIN & DU B*0 KINH i t - XA HOI S « 82 (10.2012)
Theo DBDS ciJa Lien Hop Quoc, dan sa'Viet Nam n j m 2050 se vSo kho,ing 111,7 Hieu ngudi. So lieu nay gJn nhu khong khac b i o l nhieu so vdi kel quii DBDS cua To'ng cue Thdng ke lien hanh sau TDTDS 01/4/2009 cho n,im 2049 1,1 106,7 I r i f u ngudi. Tuy nhien, cd si( khiic hiel nay l,i do Lien Hop Qudc da DBDS tren co sd sd lieu n.uii 2010 cua nude la l.i 89 Hieu ngudi'", m,-,l khac, sd lieu DBDS cua Lien Hop Qudc la nam 2050, trong khi DBDS ciia Tong cue Thdng ke l,i n.im 2049. Neu so ke! c|ii,i DBDS Viet Nam * B j n g I , n . 1 m 2 0 2 5 d.i g j n 159 Hieu ngudi, cdn S B,5ng 2, n.lm 2050 ch? cd 111,7 irieu ngudi, se Ihay kel qii.i DBDS cua Lien Hop Qudc IhUc su cd iihiYng chenh l e r h .
6 nude la, DBDS do nhieu co ciuan lien hanh, trong do d.ic biet co Tong cue Thdng ke. Chi linh rieng irong hai th.ip ky cudi the ky \ \ da co 1 l.in dU Ir.io vdi 12 phuong .in kli.ii nhau:
Thdi ky du h.io
1989-2014 1990-2005 1990-2015 1995-2020
Phuong .in d u b.io J 3 3 3
Ph.im vi du' b.io C.^ nude C,\ nude
C.i nude, viing v,i linh C5 nude, viing v,i tinh
Nam cong bd' 191)1 1994 1998 1998
Cd quan du bao TCTK TCTK UBDSva K H H C D UBDS va K H H C D DUdi day Id ket qua DBDS gdn day do Td'ng cue Thdng ke tien hdnh.
Bang 3: Ket qua dU bdo dan so' cac thdi ky
Dan vi: ngh'in ngi/di
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
1994-2024 70.778 76.787 82.005 87.218 92.217 96.706 100.491
1999-2024
76.328 80.843 85.490 90.356 94.962 98.944
2009-2049
85.847 90.654 95.354 99.466 102.678 105.092 106.887 108.102 108.707
Nien gi<im Thd'ng ke 70.825 76.686 81.438 85.847
Su khac bi§t vd sd lUdng dan sd'gida sd'du bao va so'thuc te la khong tranh khdi, tuy nhi&n, chenh lech ve so' du bdo (dU bao vao cac nam 1989 va 1999) vd sd thUc te dd ngdy cang thu hep, bdi nhU ta da biet.
'"Trong khi Iheo Ti^ng cyc Thong kS. di5n s6 ttung binh ndm 2010cua n j o c to Id 86,9 ltl$u nguai
S6' 82 (10 2012) T H O N G TIN & D J BAO KINH TE - XA HQI
KHOA HOC T H O N G TIN. P U BAO & CANH B A O
thdi gian d i ; bdo cdng ddi thi < henh l^ch cdng Idn, do v^y, DBDS ndm eho ndm 2009 eua thdi ky 1994-2004 Id 87.212 nghin ngUdi, cilia thdi ky 1999-2024 Id 85.490 nghin ngUdi, chfinh kV h khdng ddng k^ so vdi dan sd trung binh ndm 2009 t d n g bd' Irong Nu"n gidm Thdng k6 Id 85.847 nghin ngUdi; vd chUa ke thdng lin dau vdo eho DBDS sau ludn j^an vdi thUc lO' htfn.
2. Phuong phdp di^' h.io ddn so 1. Dif fcdo d,1n sd' theo day sd' thdi gian
P, = P „ ( 1 +1)' (a) Trong d d : P,: ddn s6' Ihdi ky d d bdo {ndm I);
Pn: ddn so thdi k</ gde ( n.lm 0);
r: td'c (In ldng ddn sd';
t : Ihdi gian
PhUUng phdp DBDS theo Ihdi gian cd UU d i ^ m la ddn gidn, d§ ihi/c h i ^ n , song cd mdi s6' han chS':
- Phu ihupe chu yO'u vdo mde dd chfnh xdc kel qud hai CLJQC TDTDS, vi PQ Id ket qud cua cudc TDTDS Idm gdc, r Id Id'e dd tdng ddn sd l i n h tren eo sd ede cuqc TDTDS,...;
- DBDS iheo phUdng phdp ndy khdng eho dUde ed eau (.\:m sd theo gidi tfnh, nhdm lud'i,... do dd se khdng cd cdc thdng tin ve ngudn nhan lUe, ve gidi tinh, v^ tr^ em, ngUdi gid,...
b. Mo binh cSn bhng dan sd'
M d h i n h nay cung dUde sd d y n g , tuy n h i e n eung cd d i ^ m ban che n h u phUdng p h d p theo md h i n h d a y so' t h d i gian. M d h i n h ed d a n g :
P. = Po+ Bo,, - Do,, + IMo,, - OMo,, (b) Trong d d : P,: dan so' thdi ky dU bdo;
PQ; dan so' thdi ky gdc;
Bo[: so sinh ra trong ky dU bdo;
D Q , : sd chet trong ky dU bdo;
IMo_,: sd dan nhdp eU trong ky dU bdo;
0 M ( , , : so' dan xud'l eu trong ky dij bdo.
3. PbUcmg phap dt/ bao thanh phan
V e c d b d n , phUdng phap thdnh p h I n dp dyng md hinh can b.'ingddn so' (b). Tuy nhien, mo hinh nay dUdc bien dd'i cd dang:
P. = (PQ - Do,,) + Bo,, ± NMo,, (c)
Vdi cde k;^hi$u gidng n h u d ( b ) , ri&ng N M Q , Id m d c d i cU thuan luy.
d md hinh (c), dan sd (P,) dUdc bieu dien tCf ba thanh phan c h i n h : (pQ - DO,,) bieu thi sd lUdng ddn $6 d thdi ky gd'c (PQ) trd di so' ngUdi chet trong thdi ky d d bdo; (BQ,,) bieu thj sd ngUdi mdi sinh ra trong thdi ky d d bdo; {NMQ,,) bieu thi sd dan di cu thuan tuy trong thdi k'J' d d bdo (ed t h ^ Id dUdng {+) khi sd ngUdi tii nude ngodi ve nUdc n h ^ p cd nhieu hdn sd ngUdi t d trong nUdc xua't cU ra nUdc ngoai, vd cd the Id dm (-) trong trudng hdp ngUdc Igi).
d phUdng phdp dU bdo thdnh ph.1n ndy, khi tifi'n hdnh dU bdo c h o t h d n h p h a n t h d nhd't, sd d g n g cd cd'u ddn sd" theo gidi t i n h vd dd luoi d t h d i ky gdc, sau dd n h d n ed cau ndy vdi h? sd sunn tUdng d n g cua thdi ky ndy c d n idn tai d t h d i ky dU bdo. Do nam vd n d cd h^ sd sdng khde nhau nen khi dU bdo {ehuyen tudi eho d d n s d g d c ) Ihdnh p h l n i h d nhd't, ngUdi ta sd' dgng hai bd he sd^ sd'ng khdc nhau eho hai g i d i .
V d i d i ; bdo t h d n h p h i n thd hai (Bo,|], d a u t i e n dM bdo ty 1^
s i n h dde trUng iheo n h d m tuoi cua phu n d Irong t h d i ky dU bdo, sau d d sd d g n g ket q u i dU bdo n d y d ^ t i n h t d n g sd ire em d u o c sinh ra trong t h d i ky dU bdo
Vdi d u bdo (hanh phan thd ba, can Ihu thap thdng tin eua cac Cd quan qudn ly di cU qud'c te. Tuy nhi&n, h i u h^t cdc nUdc deu cd chfnh sdch c a m (hode h?n che) nh$p eU, cho nen khi dU bdo, ngUdi la ihudng gid thiet thanh phan ndy khdng xuat hi^n (NMQ,,
= 0).
Cd ba ddt DBDS cua Tdng egc Thd'ng ke d e u dp dung phUdng p h d p d u bdo thanh p h d n . D a y Id phUdng phdp dU bdo "chua'n" nhd't, dUdc nhieu nUdc vd ede td chdc qud'c te dp d g n g , vdi d i e u k i ^ n cd n h i i u t h d n g tin dau vao de di^ bdo va quan trpng h d n , ket q u i DBDS ndy cung ed'p dUdc nhieu thdng tin k h d n g ehi ve quy md ddn so m a cd n h d n g cdea'u dan so'quan t r p n g khdc.
34 THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH i t - XA Hpl Sfl' 82 (10.2012)
3. Cac thong t i n dau vao de du"
bao dan so' Vi?t Nam giai doain 2009-2049
Nd'u dp d g n g phUdng p h d p DBDS td't nha't, nhUng t h d n g t i n dau vdo khong d d , khdng ehinh xac, thi ket qud DBDS cOng se ra't han ehe. Tren t h g c te', de thUc hien md h i n h DBDS, eac cd quan dU bdo da p h d i "dU bdo" thdng qua gid t h i e t mgt sd' thanh phan eua md h i n h dU bdo se xdy ra trong ky dU bdo nhU:
tdng ty sua't sinh, tuoi thg trung binh, t9 sd g i d i t i n h khi sinh,...
td dd se cd cac phUdng dn khde nhau vd td't yeu se cho ra ket qua DBDS khac nhau. Sd d u n g ket qud d u bdo trong nghien cdu, ed the tha'y, ket qud cua cac phUdng an d u bdo khde nhau ra't dUdc quan t a m , tuy nhien, phUdng dn trung b i n h dUdc chu y nhieu hdn
Chang h a n , ket qua DBDS giai doan 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 2 4 ( N h d X u ^ t bdn Thd'ng k e , 1 9 9 9 ) , gid t h i e t t o n g t ^ sua't sinh (TFR) giai d o ^ n 2004-2009 cd ba m d e khae nhau; tha'p 1,81 con/phg n d ; trung b i n h : 2,00 c o n / p h g n d ; cao: 2,1 eon/phu n d , theo d d , du bao n a m 2 0 0 9 se eho ra ba ket qud n h u sau: t h a p : 8 4 . 7 7 5 nghin ngUdi; trung b i n h : 8 5 . 4 9 0 nghin ngUdi; cao: 8 6 . 2 2 8 nghin ngudi.
De DBDS cho den ndm 2049 (sau 40 ndm, tinh ti^ cupc TDTDS 01/4/2009), Tdng cue Thdng ke da dUa vdo cdc thdng tin dau vao nhu sau:
Ddn sd theo gidi tfnh va nhdm tu^i (TDTDS 01/4/2009);
- Mde dp sinh: Td'ng t'J' sua't sinh (TFR) thay eho Tde do tang dan sd nhu dd trinh bdy d (a), (b) se dung vd chinh xdc hdn de dU bdo.
+ Ndm 2009: 2,03 con/phu nO;
+ Ndm 2039: 1,85 con /phu nd vd gid nguygn mde nay cho den ndm 2049.
- Mde dd chet: Tudi thp (rung binh (eO)
+ Ndm 2009: 70,2 tuoi vdi nam vd 75,6 tuoi vdi nU;
+ Ndm 2049: 73,7 tuoi vdi nam vd 79,7 tudi vdi nO.
- Ty s d g i d i tfnh khi sinh (SRB):
+ Ndm 2009: 110,5;
+ Ndm 2020: 115,0;
+ Ndm 2030: 105,0 vd gid nguyen mde ndy cho den ndm 2009.
- Di eU qud'c te: Ty sua't di cU thudn bdng 0.
Tdng egc Thd'ng ke dd dp dung phUdng phdp du bao thdnh phan vdi cdc thdng tin dau vdo nhU da neu d tren, vdi 4 phUdng dn de DBDS giai doan 2009-2049 dUa vao 4 g i i thiet khdc nhau ve xu hUdng thay ddi mde sinh trong tUdng lai nhU: mde sinh trung binh, mde sinh cao, mde sinh thd'p va mde sinh khdng doi.
Ket qud DBDS Viet Nam tii nay den ndm 2049 eho tha'y; den nam 2049, vdi 108,7 trieu ngUdi, tuy nUde ta v I n thupc nhom nUdc ddng dan tren the gidi, nhUng khdng ddng d vi trf thU 13 ma lui xud'ng nhieu b a e ' ; "ed cd'u dan so'vang" se keo dai khoang 30 nam nda - ty so phy thugc ehung cua dan so nUdc ta se tiep tuc giam vd dat gid trj cUe tieu vao ndm 2014 Id 4 2 , 1 % , nghTa la cd 2,3 ngUdi trong dp tuoi cd khd ndng lao ddng mdi phai gdnh mdt ngUdi ngoai dp tuoi lao ddng, tuy nhien, ngay td ndm 2019, t^ so phu thupc chung se tang d i n len, den ndm 2040 se la 5 0 % vd ndm 2049 la 5 5 , 2 % ; cung vdi nd, ddn sd nUde ta se dan dan ehuyen tU dan so' tre sang dan so' gid do mde sinh giam, tuy ed duy tri nhUng d mde thap ; ty trong phu nd trong do tuoi 15-49 se giam lien tue (ndm 2009: 57,3%, ndm 2034: 48,6%, nam 2049:
4 2 , 8 % ); TFR se g i i m lien tgc: ndm 1999: 2,33 con/phu nd, ndm 2009:
2,03 eon/phy nd, va theo dd ndy, gia thiet eho ndm 2039 se la 1,85 con/phg nd"'; t^ sdgidi tfnh khi sinh la va'n de ra't e^n quan tdm bdi vdi da ty sdgidi tfnh khi sinh lien tge tdng den nam 2020 vd se tiep tuc gia tdng trong cdc nam ke tiep se thUe sU la vd'n de dang bao dong eho cac thap ky sau ve kinh te, xd hpi,...
Tdm l a i , DBDS nhSm dU bdo xu hUdng eua dan sd V i ^ t Nam trong cac giai dogn tiep theo Id dieu thUc sU can thiet. Viec chenh leeh sd l i ^ u DBDS so vdi thde te Id dieu khdng the tranh khdt, tuy nhi§n, vd'n
'" DU bdo so dan c i ni/dc m6i nOm lOng 961 nghin ngddi gioi dogn 2009-2014. se gidm xufing M2 nghin nflUdl glal dogn 202^-2029 va chi cdn 121 nghin ngUdl gial dogn 2044-2049
" Vl^t Nam se trd thdnh qutfc glacd ddn sfi gid vdo ndm 2028.
" D^ DBOS ndm 2039 theo tdc gid. t^ 1$ ndy nSn nhU ndm 2009 Id khodng 2,03 con/phg nO, vd s5 ddn 2049 sS Ithodng 109fri$ungi/c(i,
Stf 82(10.2012) THDNG TIN & Dir BAO KINH Tt - XA HPI 3 5
KHOA HOC T H 6 N G TIN, P U BAD & CANH BAO
de Id phdi hen tgc ndng cao eha't l u p n g eua e d n g L i t DBDS vd Ihudng xuydn d i e u ehlnh cdc thdng tin dau vdo de d u bdo j;,in vdi Ihdc \v hdn, ddc bi0l tCf kC-i (|u,i c ,'u cupc TDTDS. Ngodi ra, c^n sd d g n g ed hieu q u i t d c DBDS de xdy dUng cdc ChUdng t r i n h , chien lUdc, kt' hoach phai t n e n kinh i d - xd hdi ndi chung, dan s6' ndi i i e n g eung ede chinh sdeh, gidl ph.ip kip t h d i , cd hiOu qud de dieu chinh sU phdt t n e n dan sd' trong sd phdt trien kinh id' - xd h g i . D
TAILIEU THAM KHAO 1. Tdng dieu tra ddn sd' vd nha d ndm 2009.
2. Td'ng egc Thd'ng k^, Bao cao ket qua DBDS 1994- 2024, Nha Xua't bdn Thd'ng ke 1999.
3. Td'ng cue Thdng ke, Bao cao kd'l qua DBDS 1999- 2024, Nha Xuat bdn Thd'ng ke 2000.
4. Tong cue Thd'ng ke, Kdt qua DBDS 1999-2024 cho ca nUdc, cac vung dia ly, kinh td' v^ 61 tinh, thanh phd, Nhd Xua't b i n Thd'ng ke 2 0 1 1 .
5. Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, DBDS Vidt Nam - Mdt sd chf lieu chO ydu, Hd N g i , thdng 12/2011.
6. Le Vdn Dgy vd cpng sU..., Nghidn cdu Ung dyng mdt sd phuang phap va md hinh du bao ngin ban dS di/
bao cac chi tieu thd'ng kd xa bdi chu ydu, 2010.
D 6 | Mdi CG Tir NAM 20137
Theo dd xudt mdi dOy cda Bd K4 hogch vd £>du tu, k^ tU nOm 2O13,;H0l ngh| nh6m tu vdn c i c nhd tdi trd Vl^t Nam (CG) sS ddpc ddi thdnh Difln ddn Phdt tfldn Vl$t Nam td chdc mdi ndm mdt ky thay v) hcl ky mOt ndm (CG glQa ky vd cudi ky) nhu trddc ddy.
Th9o d6, thdi Qlon didn ro cung s6 khdng c d djnh, cd th^ tU 1-2 ngdy tuy thuOc vdo ndi dung chUdng trinh. DiSn ddn sd boo gdm hoi pWSn:
phl6n thdo ludn ky thudt bdn sdu v6 cdc vdn d4 quan tdm, ddng ttidl, dd xudt cdc vdn dd sd tdp trung tgi phidn thdo ludn chfnh thCfc; phidn chinh thde dupe td chUc sou dd nhdm nghe ktft qud cua phlSn ky thudt.
tdp trung cdc vfin dd cdn thdo ludn, khuyen nghj vd dd cdp cdc com k^t cua dfil tdc Chfnh phu s6 cdng bd tdng sd cdc cam kSf vdn hd trp phdt trl^n chfnh thUc (ODA) tgi phl6n ndy,
Didn ddn cOng sS md rpng thdnh pt>4n tham dU dfin cdc fd chCfc nghlSn cUu trong vd ngodi nudc, cdc nhd khoa hpc vd dgi dl$n cdc khu vi/c tu nhdn. Tr6n cO sd kfit qud hpi nghj, cdc ntidm cdng tdc sd dUpc thdnh Idp di cung trl^n khai bdo cdo trong ndm tidp ttieo.
Theo dng Bui Quang Vinh Bp trddng Bp Kd hogch v6 £)du t U . cdc dd xudt IrSn dUpc duq ra dda vdo kdt qud cua hon 30 cudc ptidng vdn, 47 td chdc ddpc tham vdn vd 160 ladn didu tra ddpc gdi cho cdc ddn v| cd lidn quan Vd cd bdn, dgl dl#n cdc ddi tdc phdt tiidn ddu d6r>g tfiudn vOi nhOng dd xudt cda Bd Kd hogch vd E)du tu.
Nhdng thoy ddi md Bd Kd hogch vd E)6u tu dd xudt nlidm xdy ddng mpt hpi nghi hl$u qud, thdng nhdt myc Hdu ttido lupn vi sU pt>dt trt^n cua Vi$t Nam vd mang tfnh hdnh dOng hdn ctio hpi ngh) vi ndu t^ chOc 2 ky/ndm thi thde sp qud tdi, khdng cd thdi gian tidp thu dd tridn khai trong thpc tidn.
TfSn cd sd kdt qud idm vi^c vdi dpi didn cdc ddi tdc phdt tridn, 80 ii& hogch vd Ddu tu sd sda ddi vd sogn thdo mpt vdn bdn chfnh thde trinh Chfnh phu Ndu dUpc chdp thudn, Didn ddn Phdt tridn Vidt Nam s©
bdt ddu ddpc thuc hIdn vdi cdc npi dung vd hinh thde mdi kd td ndm 20I3V
Cung theo Bp trddng Bui Quang Vinh, CG cudi ky 2012 se tdp trung vdo mpt sfi ndi dung chtnh, gdm: tinh hinh phdt tridn kinh t d - xd hdi Vidt Nam ndm 2012 vd dinh hddng ndm 2013; vdn dd tdi cd cdu ndn kinh td vd ddi mdi md hinh tdng trudng cua Vidt Nam trSn 3 Ifnh vdc chu dgo (tdi Cd cdu ngdn tidng, tdi cd cdu ddu t u cdng vd tdi cd cdu doanh r>ghidp rihd nddc), vdn dd ddo tgo nghd.D
38 THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH T I - XA HQI Stf 62 (10.2012)
