CAC NHAN TO ANH HlTdNG TOfI TAI CHINH BAO TRUM: BANG C H I T N G MOfI TlT PHAN TICH
Dtr LIEU BANG
Chu Khanh Lan
Viin Nghiin cuu khoa hgc ngdn hdng, Hgc viin Ngdn hdng Email: [email protected]
Nguyen Minh Phirong
Vign Nghiin ciru khoa hgc ngdn hdng, Hgc viin Ngdn hdng Emad: [email protected]
Tru-ffng Hoang Difp Hirong
Vien Nghien ciru khoa hgc ngdn hdng, Hgc viin Ngdn hdng Email: [email protected]
Ngay nhan: 20/12/2018 Ngay nhein ban siia. 3I/I2/20I8 Ngay duyet dang: 20/02/2019
Tom tk:
Muc tieu cda nghien ciru ndy Id xdc dinh cdc nhdn to dnh huang tai tdi chinh bao triim.
Chung toi sic dung dir lieu tic Tdi chlnh bao tritm todn cdu do Ngdn hdng the giai thuc hien di xdy dung chi so tdi chinh bao triim vd ba cdu phdn. Kit qud lir mo hinh hoi quy tdc dgng ngau nhien cho die lieu 82 quoc gia chi ra cdc dieu kien kinh te xa hgi on dinh nhu thu nhdp, phdt trien tdi chinh, chdt luang the chi. Ben cgnh cdc yeu to ve kinh te, chinh phu cdn kiim sodt toe do gia tdng ddn so vd tdng cu&ngphdt triin con ngu&i. Ngodi ra, ton tgi sir khde biet giira cdc nhom quoc gia trong cdc nhdn to dnh hu&ng t&i tdi chinh bao triim nhu lgm phdt, phdt trien tdi chinh vd ddc diim cua hi thong ngdn hdng. O mirc dg phdt trien tdi chinh thdp hogc trung binh, cdc quoc gia dang phdt trien se nhgn duac nhiiu lgi ich cda viec m& rgng quy mo thi truang tdi chinh doi v&i tdi chinh bao triim.
Tir khoa: Tai chinh bao tnim, phan tich thanh phan chinh hai giai doan.
MdJEL: 021:016
Determinants of financial inclusion: new evidence from panel data analysis Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of financial inclusion. We use data from Global Financial Inclusion database to construct financial inclusion index and its three components. From the results of random effect estimation for 82 countries, n e can draw that favorable social-economic conditions in terms of income, financial development, institutional quality Not only should the governments implement economic policies, but they also control population growth rate and enhance human development to foster inclusive finance. Moreover, there are differences in the determinants of financial inclusion between countiy groups, including inflation, financial development and banking characteristics.
Due to low or middle level of finance depth, developing countries receive much benefits of financial inclusion from increasing financial market size and activity.
JELCode:G2l:OI6
Keywords: Financial inclusion, hvo-slate principal component analysis
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1. Gidi thif u
Cuoc khung hoang t^i chinh gan day da nhdn manh tam quan trong cua tai chinh bao trum trong viec thuc day tang trudng kinh tl, giam doi ngheo va giam bat binh dang thu nhap. Ke tir do, chii d6 nay da thu hut dugc su quan tam cua cac nha nghien ciru va hoach dmh chinh sach. Phiin ldn cac nghien cuu tiep can tai chinh bao trum tren khia canh do ludng miic do tai chinh bao tnim hoac danh gia anh hudng cua tai chinh bao trum tdi tang trudng kinh te, giam ddi ngheo va bat binh d5ng. Chi cd mot vai nghien ciiu danh gia cac nhan td tac dpng tdi tai chinh bao triim. Bai viet nay bo sung vao khoang trdng nghien cuu bang each do ludng cac nhan to anh hudng tdi mirc do tai chinh bao trum tren toan the gidi. Trudc tien, chung toi xay dung chi s6 tai chinh bao triim va ba cau phan, gom tai khoan, thanh toan, vay va glii thong qua phan tich thanh phiin chinh hai budc.
Sau do, chiing toi ap dung md hinh hoi quy tac dong nglu nhieu de xem xet anh hudng cua cac nhan to kinh te, the ch6, xa hdi, va dac diem ciia he thdng ngan hang tdi tai chinh bao triim.
Nghien cuu nay cd nhung ddng gdp mdi nhu sau:
Thir nhat, thdng qua su dung ca sd dii lieu co tinh toan dien cao, nghien cuu da giup nha lam chinh sach hieu hon ve thuc trang cac thanh phan cua tai chinh bao triim, giiip ho xay dung dirac cac chinh sach phu hop. Ket qua nghien cuu cho thay, cac quoc gia phat trien cd chi so tai chinh bao tnim va cac cau phan ben trong cao va dn dinh hon cac quoc gia dang phat trien. Cau phan vay va giri giai thich nhieu nhat su bien dgng trong chi sd tai chinh bao triim, k8 den la cau phan tai khoan va thanh toan mac dii sir khac biet trong ty trgng la kha thap.
Thu hai, nghien ciiu chi ra dieu kien kinh te xa hgi thuan lgi thuc day tai chinh bao triim phat trien. Ket qua nghien ciiru vung chac khi thay ddi quy md m5u, phan nhom cac quoc gia va lua chon cac bien sd dgc lap khac nhau.
Thii ba, thdng qua viec tach mlu nghien cuu thanh cic nhdm qude gia dua tren mirc dp phat trien va thu nhap, chiing tdi nhan thay co sy khac biet kha ro rang trong cac nhan td anh hudng tdi tai chinh bao tnim. Phat tri8n tai chinh ddng vai trd quan trgng trong viec thiic day tai chinh bao tnim tai cac nudc dang phat trien nhung khdng co vai trd tai cac nudc phat triln. Ty le lam phat cao, canh tranh trong he thdng ngan hang thap va he thdng ngan hang tang
mite do chap nhan riii ro cd tac dgng lam tang miic dp phd bien ciia tai chinh.
Phan con lai cua nghien cuu dugc trinh bay nhu sau. Phan 2 tdng quan cac nghien cim truac day.
Phan 3 md ta phuang phap va dii lieu. PhSn 4 trinh bay ket qua. Phan 5 trinh bay cac ket luan.
2. Tong quan nghien cihi
2.1. Khdi nipm vd do lu&ng tdi chinh bao triim Hau het cac nghien cuu nhan djnh rang tai chinh bao triim la mpt no luc nham loai bd rao can trong viec sir dung cac dich vu tai chinh. Mohan (2006) nhan dinh tai chinh bao tnim ta tinh hudng ma nhimg ngudi chua tiep can tdi he thdng tai chinh dugc cung cap cac san pham tai chinh vdi chi phi thap, an toan va hgp ly.
De do ludng miic do tai chinh bao tnim, hau het cac nghien cuu deu xay dung chi sd tai chinh bao triim tong hgp tir cac chi tieu lira chgn. Trong budc dau tien, cac chi tieu do ludng tai chinh bao tnim dugc lira chgn va dugc chuan hda bang each lay gia tri thuc cua chi tieu trir di gia tri nhd nhat ciia chi tieu dd, sau dd chia cho chenh lech giira gia tri ldn nhat va gia tri nhd nhat cua chi tieu dd. Budc tiep theo, chi sd tai chinh bao triim dugc linh toan bang phuong phap khoang each nghich dao binh phucmg Euclidean {Saima, 2008; Kim, 2016; Park
& Mercado, 2015), hoac phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh. Diem khac biet chinh giira hai phuang phap nay la miic trgng sd gan vdi timg chi tieu. Vi du, Sarma (2008) xay dung chi sd tiep can tai chinh toan dien bao gdm ba cau phan (miic do tiep can, san cd va sir dung) nhung khdng ap dung cac ky thuat thdng ke de xac dinh trgng sd cho timg chi tieu. Camara & Tuesta (2014) lai chia cac chi tieu thanh ba cau phan khac (miic do sit dung, tiep can va cac rao can) va sir dung phuong phap phan tich thanh phan chinh hai giai doan de do ludng trgng sd gan vdi timg chi tieu va vdi timg cau phan.
Park & Mercado (2018) ket hgp cac phuang phap Sarma (2008) va Camara & Tuesta (2014), bang each sir dung cac cau phan gidng nhu Sarma (2008).
Hg chuan hda tung chi tieu, sau dd sir dung phucmg phap phan tich thanh phan chinh de tinh timg cau phan. Sau khi cd dugc chi tieu do ludng timg cau phan cua tai chinh bao tnim, hg tiep tuc sir dung phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh lan thir hai de tim ra miic trgng sd gan vdi timg cau phan va tdng hgp thanh chi sd tai chinh bao trum.
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CAC NHAN TO ANH Hl/dNG TOfI TAI CHINH BAO TRUM: BANG C H I T N G MOfI TlT PHAN TICH
Dtr LIEU BANG
Chu Khanh Lan
Viin Nghiin ciru khoa hgc ngdn hdng, Hgc viin Ngdn hdng EmaU: [email protected]
Nguyen Minh Phirong
Vien Nghiin cuu khoa hgc ngdn hdng, Hgc viin Ngdn hdng Email: [email protected]
Tnnmg Hoang Diep Hmmg
Vien Nghiin ciru khoa hgc ngdn hdng. Hgc vien Ngdn hdng Email: [email protected]
Ngay nhan: 20/12/2018 Ngay nhan ban sua: 31/12/2018 Ngay duyet dang: 20/02/2019
Tom tat:
Muc niu cua nghien cuu ndy Id xdc dinh cdc nhdn to dnh huang t&i tdi chinh bao tritm.
Chung toi sir dung die lieu tic Tdi chinh bao tritm todn cdu do Ngdn hdng thi giai thuc hien di xdy dung chi so tdi chinh bao triim vd ba cdu phdn. Ket qud tu mo hinh hoi quy tdc dgng ngau nhien cho die lieu 82 quoc gia chi ra cdc dieu kien kinh te xd hgi on dinh nhu thu nhdp.
phdt trien tdi chinh. chdt lugng the che. Ben cgnh cdc yeu to vi kinh te, chinh phu cdn kiem sodt toe do gia ldng ddn so vd tang cu&ngphdt triin con ngu&i. Ngodi ra. ton tgi su khac biit giira cdc nhdm quoc gia trong cdc nhdn to dnh hu&ng t&i tdi chinh bao trum nhu lgm phdt, phdt triin tdi chinh vd ddc diim cua he thong ngdn hdng. Omicc do phdt trien tdi chinh thdp hogc trung binh, cdc quoc gia dang phdt trien se nhgn duac nhieu lai ich cua viec m& rgng quy mo thi tru&ng tdi chinh doi v&i tdi chinh bao triim.
Tir khoa: Tai chinh bao tnim, phan tich thanh phan chinh hai giai doan.
MdJEL: 021:016
Determinants of financial inclusion: new evidence from panel data analysis Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of financial inclusion. We use data from Global Financial Inclusion database to construct financial inclusion index and its three components From the results of random effect estimation for 82 countries, we can draw that favorable social-economic conditions in terms of income, financial development, institutional quaiity. Not only should the governments implement economic policies, but they also control population growth rate and enhance human development lo foster inclusive finance. Moreover there are differences in the determinants of financial inclusion between
countiy groups, including inflation, financial development and banking characteristics.
Due to low or middle level of finance depth, developing countries receive much benefits of financial inclusion from increasing financial market size and activity.
JELCode: 021:016
Kevwords: Financial inclusion, two-state principal component analysis
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1. GiM thieu
Cudc khiing hoang tai chinh giin day da nhan manh tam quan trgng ciia tai chinh bao tnim trong viec thuc day tang trudng kinh te, giam ddi ngheo va giam bat bmh dang thu nhap. K6 tii dd, chii de nay da thu hiit dugc su quan tam cua cac nha nghien ciru va hoach dinh chinh sach. Phan Ion cac nghien cuu tiep can tai chinh bao triim tren khia canh do ludng miic do tai chinh bao tnim hoac danh gia anh hudng cua tai chinh bao tnim tdi tang trudng kinh te, giam ddi ngheo va bat binh dang. Chi cd mgt vai nghien cuu danh gia cac nhan td tac ddng tdi tai chinh bao tnim. Bai viet nay bd sung vao khoang trdng nghien ciiu bang each do ludng cac nhan td anh hudng tdi miic do tai chinh bao tnim tren toan thi gidi. Trudc tien, chiing tdi xay dung chi sd tai chinh bao triim va ba cau phan, gom tai khoan, thanh toan, vay va glii thdng qua phan tich thanh phan chinh hai budc.
Sau do, chiing tdi ap dung md hinh hdi quy tac dgng nglu nhieu de xem xet anh hudng cua cac nhan td kinh te, the che, xa hdi, va dac diem ciia he thdng ngan hang tdi tai chinh bao tnim.
Nghien ciiu nay cd nhiing ddng gdp mdi nhu sau:
Thiir nhat, thdng qua sit dung ca sd dii lieu cd tinh toan dien cao, nghien cim da giiip nha lam chinh sach hieu hon ve thuc trang cac thanh phan ciia tai chinh bao tnim, giiip hg xay dung dugc cac chinh sach phii hgp. Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thay, cac quoc gia phat trien cd chi sd tai chinh bao tnim va cac cau phan ben trong cao va dn dinh han cac quoc gia dang phat trien. Cau phan vay va gui giai thich nhieu nhat su bien dgng trong chi sd tai chinh bao triim, ke den la cau phan tai khoan va thanh toan mac dii su khac biet trong ty trgng la kha thap.
Thii hai, nghien cim chi ra dilu kien kinh te xa hgi thuan lgi thiic day tai chinh bao tnim phat trien, Ket qua nghien ciiu viing chac khi thay ddi quy md mau, phan nhdm cac quoc gia va lua chgn cac bien sd dgc l|p khac nhau.
Thii ba, thdng qua viec tach mau nghien ciiu thanh cac nhdm quoc gia dua tren miic do phat trien va thu nhap, chung tdi nhan thay cd su khac biet kha rd rang trong cac nhan td anh hudng tdi tai chinh bao tnim. Phat trien tai chinh ddng vai tro quan trgng trong viec thiic day tai chinh bao triim tai cac nudc dang phat trien nhung khdng cd vai trd tai cac nudc phat trien. Ty le lam phat cao, canh tranh trong he thdng ngan hang thap va he thong ngan hang tang
mirc do chap nhan nii ro cd tac ddng lam tang miic do phd bien cua tai chinh.
Phan cdn lai ciia nghien cuu dugc trinh bay nhu sau. Phan 2 tdng quan cac nghien ciiu trudc day.
Phan 3 md ta phucmg phap va dii lieu. Phan 4 trinh bay ket qua. Phan 5 trinh bay cac k6t luan.
2. Tong quan nghien ciru
2.1. Khdi nifm vd do lu&ng tdi chinh bao trdm Hau het cac nghien cim nhan dinh rang tai chinh bao tnim la mgt nd lyc nham loai bd rao can trong viec sii dung cac dich vu tai chinh. Mohan (2006) nhan dinh tai chinh bao trum la tinh hudng ma nhiing ngudi chua tiep can tdi he thdng tai chinh dugc cung cap cac san pham tai chinh vdi chi phi thap, an toan va hgp ly.
De do ludng mirc do tai chinh bao tnim, hau het cac nghien ciru deu xay dung chi sd tai chinh bao trum tdng hgp tir cac chi tieu lya chgn. Trong budc dau tien, cac chi tieu do ludng tai chinh bao tnim dugc lua chgn va dugc chuan hda bang each lay gia tri thuc cua chi tieu trir di gia tri nhd nhat cua chi tieu dd, sau dd chia cho chenh lech giira gia tri ldn nhat va gia tri nhd nhat cua chi tieu dd. Buoc tiep theo, chi so tai chinh bao tnim dugc tinh toan bang phuang phap khoang each nghich dao binh phuang Euclidean (Sarma, 2008; Kim, 2016; Park
& Mercado, 2015), hoac phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh. Diem khac biet chinh giiia hai phuong phap nay la miic trgng sd gan vdi hing chi tieu. Vi du, Sarma (2008) xay dyng chi sd tiep can tai chinh toan dien bao gdm ba cau phan (miic do tiep can, san cd va su dung) nhung khdng ap dung cac ky thuat thdng ke de xac dinh trgng sd cho timg chi tieu. Camara & Tuesta (2014) lai chia cac chi tieu thanh ba cau phan khac (miic do sii dung, tiep can va cac rao can) va su dung phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh hai giai doan de do ludng trgng sd gan vdi timg chi tieu va vdi timg cau phan.
Park & Mercado (2018) ket hgp cac phucmg phap Sarma (2008) va Camara & Tuesta (2014), bing each sir dung cac cau phan gidng nhu Sarma (2008).
Hg chuan hda timg chi tieu, sau dd sii dung phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh de tinh timg cau phan. Sau khi cd dugc chi tieu do ludng timg cau phan cua tai chinh bao tnim, hg tiep tuc sir dung phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh lan thit hai de tim ra miic trgng sd gan vdi timg can phan va tdng hgp thanh chi sd tai chinh bao trirni.
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2.2. Nhdn to tdc dgng den tdi chinh bao trum Cac nghien ciiu v6 nhan to tac dgng tdi tai chinh bao tnim cd the dugc chia thanh hai nhdm dua hen loai sd lieu ma nghien ciiu sir dung.
Nhdm dau tien sit dung dir lieu vT md chu yeu dugc khai thae tir ca sd dii lieu Global Findex. Trong nhdm nay, cac nhan td anh hudng tdi tai chinh bao tnim dugc nhdm thanh cac nhan td phia cung, phia cau va cac nhan td vT md. Su dung ciing mgt co sd dii lieu Global Findex 2011, nhung thuc hien tren pham vi khac nhau, Allen & cgng su (2016), Fungacova &
Weill (2014), va Demirguf-Kunt & cgng su (2013) deu tim thay mdi lien he giCta cac yeu td ve phia cau (dac diem ca nhan nhu ciia cai, hgc van, do tudi, dia phucmg, tinh trang hdn nhan) va tai chinh bao triim.
Ve phia cung, Chakravarty & Pal (2010) va Kumar (2013) nhan thay he thong mang ludi giao dich va tin dung la yeu Id quyet dinh tdi mite do tai chinh bao triim tai An Do. Ben canh he thdng ngan hang, Mendoza (2009) nhan manh tam quan trgng ciia tai chinh vi md trong viec tang cudng tai chinh bao trum tai khu vyc ndng thdn. Cac nghien cim kiem dinh ca cac yeu td ben cung (miic do tap trung va nii ro ciia he thdng ngan hang) va yeu td vT md (GDP binh quan diiu ngudi, lam phat, chat lugng the che) ciing cho thSy tac ddng ciia cac yeu td nay tdi tai chinh bao triim (Sousa, 2015; Ajide, 2017).
Cac nghien cvm sir dung du lieu vi md ciing cho thay cac nhan td ben cung va kinh te vT md cd anh hudng ldn tdi tai chinh bao tnim ban cac nhan td bencdu. Kumar & Mishra (2011) va Singh & Kodan (2011) ket luan r^ng cac yeu td kinh te vT md la nhiing yeu td ddng gdp chinh cho tai chinh bao tnim.
Nhdm thir hai gdm cac nghien ciiu sii dung dii lieu vi md thu thap tir phuong phap khao sat. Nhimg nghien cim nay chii yeu phan tich tac ddng ciia cac dac diSm ca nhan (phia cau) tdi tai chinh bao triim, cung nhu phan tich anh hudng ciia cac yeu td khac nhau d6n su tham gia vao he thdng tai chinh chinh thiic. Delvin (2005) phat hien thky cac ylu td ddng gdp tdi tai chinh bao triun tai Anh bao gdm tinh trang cdng viec, thu nhap hd gia dinh va quyen sd hiru nha. Kuri & Laha (2011) nghien cim tai viing ndng thdn Tay Bengal da kk luan miic do nhan thiic vl cac dich vu ngan hang ca ban, da dang hda cac ITnh vyc phi ndng nghiep, va xda mil chir la cac yeu td quan ft-gng cho phep md rdng tai chinh bao tnim.
Tuang ty, Clamara & cgng sy (2014) phat hien cac
nhdm ngudi de bi tdn thuang thudng gap khd khan trong viec tilp can cac dich v\i tai chinh va ngan hang.
Allen & cdng su (2012) sii dung md hinh probit va dtr lieu vi md tir 123 qude gia de kilm tra ca yeu td ben cung va cau anh hudng din vi?c sir dung dich vu tai chinh cua cac hg gia dinh. Miic do tai chinh bao tnim cd tucmg quan nghich vdi cac yeu td phia cau nhu thu nhap thap va sdng d nong thdn, trong khi mdi quan he tich cyc dugc tim thay giira tai chinh bao tnim va nhan thiic ciia hg gia dinh vl cac yeu td ben cung nhu giam chi phi sir dung dich vu ngan hang, su gan giii ciia cac chi nhanh va van phdng giao dich, va giam giay td.
3. Phmmg phap va du- lieu 3.1. Phuang phdp
De xem xet cac nhan td anh hudng tdi tai chinh bao tnim, chung tdi udc lugng phuang trinh sau:
Y, = a + pX,+ £, (1)
Trong dd, bien dgc lap, Y ^ la chi sd tai chinh bao triim tdng the - FII va cac cau phiin cua nd (cSu phan tai khoan - ACC, thanh toan - PAY, vay va gui - S&B) tai qude gia i vao thdi diem t; X^^ la ma tran cac bien ddc lap tai qude gia i vao thdi diem t;
va e^^ la phan du bang tdng cua u_ va v^, trong dd u^
la tac dgng cd dinh hoac ngau nhien vdi timg qude gia hoac timg thdi diem chua dugc dua vao phucmg trinh va v^ la i.i.d.
Cac bien dgc lap trong md hinh la cac bien md ta dac diem ciia qude gia va he thdng ngan hang tai quoc gia dd. Dac diem qude gia bao gom: thu nhap bmh quan dau ngudi (gia cd dinh 2010 USD) - GDP, tin dung ngi dia cho khu vuc tu nhan (%GDP) - PRC, ty le lam phat - INF, tdc do tang trudng dan sd - PGR, chi sd chSt lugng the chi (dugc tinh tir sau chi sd; kiem soat tham nhung, hieu qua chinh phii, dn dinh chinh tri va khdng cd bao loan, chSt lucmg ban hanh va thye thi phap lu^t hd trg khu vuc tu nhan, chat lugng luat phap, vai trd ciia ngudi dan va tinh minh bach) - INS, va chi sd phat trien con ngudi - HDL
Chiing tdi ky vgng cac yeu td kinh te (thu nhap
\a tin dung ngi dja) va the che thuan Igi cd tac dgng thuan chieu tdi tai chinh bao tnim. Thu nhap lang se khuyen khich ngudi dan su dyng dich vu tai chmh nhieu han trong khi ve phia cung. gia tang qu\ nio thj trudng tai chinh gdp phan vao md rdng kha naiin
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rii'iphyc vy cua h? thdng trung gian tai chinh nhu ngan hang. O miic dg thdp, sy tang 18n trong miic do phat trien con ngudi cd the lam giam kha nang tiep can va tan dung lgi ich ciia cac dich vy tai chinh cua nhiing ngudi it hgc va kem siic khde so vdi nhirng ngudi cd trinh do hgc van va khda manh hem. Tuy nhien, d miic dg cao, khi sy binh dang giiia hai nhdm kl tren dugc thu hep, su tang len trong miic do phat triln con ngudi se tao dieu kien tang cudng tai chinh bao tnim. De xem xet tac dgng nay, chting tdi bd sung them bien binh phuang cua phat trien con ngudi vao phuang trinh (1). Hai bien sd phan anh dac diem ciia he thdng ngSn hang bao gdm miic do tap trung tai san - BAC va mite dg rui ro cua he thdng ngan hang - BZS. He thdng ngan hang cd miic do canh tranh dugc ky vgng thiic diy tai chinh bao hiim do chi phi ma ngudi dan bd ra se duge ha thSp. He thdng ngan hang lanh manh se cho phep cac ngan hang cung ling dich vu va san phim tai chinh tdi ngudi dan dl dang hem.
Do cac bien sd kinh te va phat tnen tai chinh cd the cd tac ddng qua lai dong thdi, chiing tdi sir dung bien tri 1 nam cua cac bien giai thich de giam thieu van de ngi sinh. De lya chgn md hinh phii hgp giira md hinh Pooled Ordinary Least Squared, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect, chiing tdi sit dyng cac
kiem dinh Breusch-Pagen Lagrange Multiplier test va Hausman test. Ket qua chi ra md hinh tac dgng ngau nhien la phu hgp.
3.2. Dir lif u
Chiing tdi ap dung phuang phap phan tich thanh phan chinh hai giai doan ciia Camara & Tuesta (2014) va dii heu Tai chinh bao tnim toan cau de tinh cac cSu phan va chi sd tai chinh bao tnim. Co sd dir lieu Tai chinh bao trum toan cau do Ngan hang The gidi xay dung vao nam 2011 cung cap du lieu md ta dan cu toan cau tiet kiem, vay mugn va thanh toan. Ca sd dii lieu nay thu thap dir lieu tir 150.000 cu dan tir 15 tudi trd len tir han 140 quoc gia ve each thiic hg tiep can va sir dung cac dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic va phi chinh thiic.
Nhu da phan tich d tren, tai chinh bao tnim dugc xac dinh thdng qua nhieu chi bao va dugc gia dinh tdn tai mgt cau tnic co sd an sau mdt nhdm cac chi bao cd mdi quan he tuang quan. Tai chinh bao triim cd the dugc trinh bay dudi dang sau:
Tlh •^^Y^ y iD-Jl + (OjY^^ (2) Trong dd, i chi cac nudc, (Y^, Y[, Y^ ^) dai dien cho cac cau phan tai khoan, thanh toan, vay va giii.
Sau khi tinh dugc chi so rieng cho ba cau phan.
Bang 1 Thong ke mo ta va ma trSn tirong quan
Fll A C C PAY S £ B G D P PRC INF PGR INS BAC HDI
FIl 1 0 . 9 7 S " ' 0,95 ! " • 0 , 9 4 6 " ' 0 , 8 3 5 ' "
0 , 6 2 3 ' "
- 0 . 4 2 7 "
- 0 , 1 4 6 "
0 , 8 7 0 ' "
0 , 2 3 2 ' "
0.045 0 . 8 8 1 " '
" , • • - • y n
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A C C
i
0 . 9 1 5 " ' 0 , 8 9 1 " ' 0 , 7 8 4 " ' 0 , S 8 4 " ' -0.43 S ' "
- 0 . : 3 2 " ' 0 , 8 5 7 " ' 0 , 2 0 6 ' "
-0,027 0 , 8 8 2 ' "
g h i a L h 6 n g l ; e ] % ,
3/2019
Bien GDP PRC INF PGR INS BAC BZS HDI FII
PAY
1 0 , K 2 3 ' "
0 , 7 5 4 ' "
0 . 5 2 1 ' "
S&B
, 8 5 8 ' "
. 6 8 0 ' "
- 0 , 4 2 4 " ' - 0 , 3 6 9 " '
• 0 , 1 6 6 "
0,SO0"' 0,2RS'"
0,021 0 . S 5 6 ' "
% . v d l O % -O.029
, 8 4 5 ' "
0 , 1 7 5 "
0,129'
,sn'"
Th6ng kg md Binh
quan 22,107
80,89 2,66 0,90 0,12 77,57 15,26 0,81 0,51
M a i r C D P
0 , 5 5 5 ' "
- 0 , 3 9 0 " ' 0,064 0 , 8 0 4 ' "
0 , 1 5 4 "
0 , 2 0 1 " ' 0 , 7 S 4 " '
Do lech chuan
21,983 50,03 2,41 1,05 2,26 15,20 9,12 0,10 0,26
n t a o T i B q u a n PRC
- 0 J I 7 " '
ta Nho nhat 108,601
253,26 12,90 4,99 4,14 100,00 55,80 0,95 1,00
JNF PGR
0 . 6 0 9 ' " - 0 . 4 3 6 " ' - 0 0 3 0
0.023 0,100 0.189
0,127 0 . 4 7 3 ' 0 . 5 4 5 " ' - 0 , 4 8 1 ' " -0.251
?
Lcm nhat 1,294 13,83 -1,42 -1,42 -3,67 38,06 1,19 0,51 0,07
INS BAC BZS HDI
0 ^ 3 0 ' "
0,039 -0, 0 S J 7 — 0,
60 1 3 6 ' 0,026 1
kill lilcJ'liiil Irien
Bang 2: Xep hang tai chiah bao trum cic quoc gia
Quoc gia/viing lanh thd
Norway Canada New Zealand Luxembourg United Kingdom Australia Sweden Israel Denmark Finland Switzerland United States Korea, Rep.
Japan Germany Singapore Belgium Austria Netherlands Hong Kong SAR, China L-eland Estonia Spain France Taiwan, China Italy Malta Slovenia Slovak Republic Czech Republic Croatia United Arab Emirates Poland
Latvia Portugal Bahrain Iran, Islamic Rep.
Kuwait Mongolia Belarus Turkey Lithuania Cyprus Malaysia Namibia China Mauritius Hunaarv
Xep hang X6p hang 2017
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
cac quoc eia/viing lanh tho Thay
doi 0 1 -1 3 3
•1 -3 I I -4 5 0 5 -3 0 8 -J -1 -6 0 1 1 -4 -3 0 7 I -2 1 1 -2 0 8 -7 0 -2 -1 1 1 9 15 -5 -5 4 21
4 -3 -3
Quoc gia/vung lanh tho Serbia
Macedonia, FYR Saudi Arabia Uruguay Kenya Greece Bulgaria Chile Russian Federation Brazil Kazakhstan Montenegro Costa Rica Thailand Ukraine Georgia Bosnia and Herzegovina South Africa Dominican RepubHc Romania Argentina Kosovo Jordan Sri Lanka Armenia Azerbaijan Colombia Peru Uzbekistan Botswana Gabon Moldova Ecuador Honduras Bolivia Panama Guatemala Albania Mexico Algeria Indonesia Viemam India El Salvador Philippines Mauritania Nicaragua
Xep hang 2017
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Thay doi
-2 -4 16 5 -I 1 -1 6 .4 -15
II -I -10
-t 2 5 -2 -24
-3 0 -8 I 16 10 19 5 -2 2 -3 -18 7 II -6 8 -3 -7 -1 2 -15 -12 -4 -I 4 -11
0 -II -1
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chung toi su dung phucmg phap phan tich thanh phan chinh giai doan hai tinh ty trpng cho tiing du phan de tinh chi so tai chinh bao trum. Mac du chi so tai chinh bao tnim bao gom dii lieu cua 95 qu6c gia, dir lieu cac bien doc lap chi co toi 82 quoc gia, Chung t6i uoc luong phucmg trinh (1) su dung dii li^u tii 82 quoc gia. Sau do, chung toi tach mau nghien ciiu thanh hai nhom, cac quoc gia phat tnen va dang phat trien va udc lugng lai phuong trinh (1) vai tung nhom. Theo phan loai cua Lien hiep qu6c, so luong cac quoc gia phat triln va dang phat trien trong mlu nghien cuu lan lugt la 40 va 42.
Doi vai cac bien dgc lap, chiing toi sir dung dii lieu tu Ca so dii lieu Chi bao phat trien the giai, Phat trien tai chinh toan chu, Chi bao quan tri th6 gioi cua Ngan hang th6 giai, va Chi bao phat hien con nguai ciia to chuc cua Chuang trinh phat trien lien hi?p quoc. Bang 1 trinh bay thong ke mo ta va tuang quan giiia cac bi6n trong mo hinh.
4. Ket qua 4.1. Ket qud
Bang 2 trinh bay thii tu va thay doi thiic tu xep hang (nam 2017 so voi nam 2014) ciia cac quoc gia trong mau nghien ciiu theo chi so tai chinh bao tnim tong the trong nam 2017. Mgt so diem dang chii y nhu sau: Cac quoc gia phat trien co miic do tai chinh bao trum va cac cau phan ciia no cao hon so voi cac nuoc dang phat trien. Tr^t tir xep hang cua cac quoc gia phat trien cung on djnh hem trong giai doan 2014- 2017. Doi vcri chi s6 tai chinh bao trum tong the, phan tu thii nhat chi y6u la cac quoc gia den tir Chau Au, Bac My, trir bon quoc gia/vung lanh tho Chau A la Han Quoc, Nhat Ban, Smgapore, va Hong Kong (Trung Quoc). Phan tu thii hai tiep tuc bao gom cac nuoc tir Chau Au con lai va ba quoc gia Tay A xuat khau dau mo la Cac tieu vuong quoc A Rap Thong nhat, Bahrain, va Kuwait, bon quoc gia/viing lanh tho Chau A la Dai Loan (Trung Quoc), Mongolia, Malaysia, va Trung Quoc. Co hai truang hgp dang chii y tai tir Chau Phi la Namibia va Mauritius. Mgt vai quoc gia Dong va Nam Au nhu Serbia, Bulagria, Nga, Ukraine, Bosnia va Herzegovina, Romania, va Kosovo thugc nhom phan tu thii ba. Phan tu cuoi
Bang 3: Nhan to tac dong toi chi so tai chinh bao triim tong the
_iii_ J2L. _a}_ _ffl_
(5)GDP PRC INF PGR INS BAC BZS HDI HDP Constant R-squared So quan sat Nhom nuoc So quoc gia
0,140*««
(0,03) 0,053*»
(0,02) 0,173 (0,24) -1,540*
(0,84) 0,026***
(0,01) 0,077*
(0,04) 0,000 (0,02) 0,111 (0,26) -1,851*
(1,00) 0,877 164 Tat ca cac
quoc gia 82
0,104***
(0,02) 0,054***
(0,02) 0,225 (0,25) -1,695**
(0,69) 0,012 (0,01) 0,072*
(0,04) -0,006 (0,01) -20,173***
(3,48) 2,397***
(0,41) 41,346***
(7,33) 0,897 164 Tat ca cac
quocgia 82
0,109***
(0,04) 0,038 (0,02) -0,586 (0,38) -2,129**
(0,84) 0,001 (0,02) 0,060 (0,05) -0,005 (0,01) 1,709***
(0,49) -8,464***
(2,18) 0,738 80 Phat tri^n
40
0,126***
(0,03) 0,077***
(0,02) 0,553*
(0,31) -2,928**
(1,18) 0,008 (0,01) 0,108*
(0,06) -0,028 (0,03) -0,134 (0,26) -0,873 (1,02) 0,634 84 Dang phat
trien 42
0,103***
(0,03) 0,089***
(0,02) 0,658**
(0,33) -2,256**
(1.15) 0,008 (0,01) 0,121**
(0,06) -0,028 (0,02) -17,704***
(3,89) 2,097***
(0,47) 35,970***
(8,10) 0,688 84 Dang phat
trien 42 : y nghTa thong ke 1 %, 5%, va 10%.
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G D P
P R C
I N F
P G R
I N S
B A C
B Z S
H O I
H D I '
C o n s t a n t
R-squaccd So q u a n
N h o m ( 1 )
0 , 1 2 "
( 0 , 0 3 ) 0 , 0 4 "
( 0 . 0 2 )
0 , M
( 0 , 3 4 )
- 2 , 4 0 *
( 1 . 4 5 ) 0 , 0 3 "
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0 . 0 5 ( 0 . 0 5 ) - 0 . 0 2 10.02)
0 , 2 2 (0,34)
- 1 . 9 3
( 1 . 2 8 ) 0,84
T a t c i
gia 82
Bang 4:
(2)
0 , 0 9 "
( 0 , 0 3 ) 0 , 0 4 "
| 0 , 0 2 )
0,19
(0,35)
- 2 , 4 6 *
(1.33)
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0,05 ( 0 , 0 5 ) - 0 , 0 3 (0,02)
1 7 , 6 7 "
(3,96) 2 , 1 2 "
( 0 , 4 8 ) 3 6 15*
(K.32)
164 T a i c a
82 A C C 0 . 0 2 ( 0 . 0 5 ) 0.04 ( 0 , 0 3 )
1 , 2 4 "
( 0 . 4 6 )
- 2 , 0 8
( 1 . 3 5 )
( 0 . 0 2 ) O.07 ( 0 . 0 6 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 1 )
'•T'
(0,64)
S . 3 6 "
( 2 , 6 2 ) 0 . 6 6 80
Phat
4 0
Nhan to tac
0 , 1 2 "
( 0 , 0 4 ) 0 , 0 6 ' 10,03)
0,54
(0,50)
- 3 . 9 2 -
(2,23)
(0,02) 0 , 0 5 ( 0 . 0 9 ) -0,06 ( 0 . 0 3 )
- 0 . 1 3 ( 0 , 3 6 )
-0,39 (1,53) 0 , 5 4
84
Dang
4 2 0 , 1 0 "
( 0 , 0 4 ) 0 , 0 7 "
( 0 , 0 3 )
0,63
( 0 , 5 0 )
- 3 . 3 5
( 2 . 2 3 )
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0.07 ( 0 , 0 9 ) - 0 , 0 5 (0,03)
1 8 . 1 9 "
(5,35) 2 . 1 6 "
( 0 , 6 6 ) 3 7 . 3 9 *
{11.00}
0.S8 84
Dang
42
dong toi cau pban cua tai chinh bao trum
0 , 1 7 "
( 0 . 0 4 ) 0 , 0 4 ( 0 . 0 3 )
-0.30
( 0 . 3 6 )
- 2 . 9 3 "
( 1 . 2 0 )
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0 , 2 ^ 1 "
(0,06) 0,01 (0,02)
0,49 ( 0 , 4 2 )
4 , 2 2 "
( 1 , 5 5 ) 0.80
T a l c a q u a e
82 0 . 1 3 "
(0,04) 0,04 (0,03) -0,22
(0,34)
3 1 1 "
( 1 . 1 4 )
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0,20
( 0 , 0 7 ) 0.00 ( 0 , 0 2 )
2 a 9 8 "
( 5 , 8 3 )
( 0 . 7 0 ) 4 1 , 5 5 *
( 1 2 , 2 6 ) 0 , 8 2 164 Tfltca
gia 82
0 . 0 9 * ( 0 , 0 5 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 2 ) -I.OB
( 0 , 7 0 )
- 2 , 2 7 * '
( 1 . 1 0 )
( 0 . 0 2 ) 0,10 ( 0 , 0 8 ) -0,01 ( 0 , 0 2 ) 2 , 5 0 "
( 0 . 7 0 )
11,69**
( 3 . 0 8 ) 0,60
z
4 0 O J l * * ( 0 , 0 5 ) 0 , 0 8 * ( 0 , 0 5 ) 0,38
( 0 , 3 5 )
- 5 . 0 9 - * ( 2 . 2 2 )
10,02]
( 0 , 1 0 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 4 )
0,01
( 0 , 4 6 )
- 2 , 8 8 ( 1 . 8 3 ) 0,53
84
Efeng
42 0 , 1 6 "
( 0 . 0 5 ) 0 , 1 0 * - ( 0 , 0 4 )
0 , 6 8 -
( 0 . 3 5 ) - 3 . 6 3 *
( 2 , 0 4 )
( 0 . 0 2 )
( 0 , 1 0 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 4 )
3 5 , 8 3 "
( 7 , 2 0 ) 4 , 2 7 * *
(0,88) 7 2 , 4 7 *
( 1 4 , 8 9 ) 0,61
84
Dang phdi
4 2
' ' ~'ijiK ' ' 0 , 1 3 "
( 0 . 0 3 ) 0 , 0 8 ' * ( 0 , 0 3 )
0 , 8 1 "
( 0 . 3 8 ) -0,41
( 0 , 8 5 ) 0 . 0 5 "
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0,02 ( 0 . 0 4 ) 0.01 ( 0 . 0 2 )
- 0 , 3 6 *
( 0 . 2 1 )
0 , 2 7 0
(0,S4) 0 . 8 2
164 T l l c i
82 0 , 1 0 "
( 0 . 0 3 ) 0 . 0 8 * *
( 0 . 0 2 )
0 , 8 1 "
( 0 . 3 8 )
- 0 , 4 4
( 0 . 9 0 ) 0 . 0 4 * *
( 0 . 0 1 ) 0 . 0 ! ( 0 . 0 4 ) 0,01 ( 0 . 0 1 )
I 9 , 6 0 * -
( 6 141
( 0 . 7 2 ) 4 1 . 2 6 *
( 1 3 . 2 0 ) O.SS 164 T S t c i
gia 82
0 . 1 9 * *
( 0 . 0 5 ) 0,05 (0.O4)
0 , 4 5 ( 0 . 5 2 )
-1.52
( 1 . 3 0 ) 0 , 0 4 * ( 0 , 0 2 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 7 ) - 0 , 0 0 ( 0 . 0 2 )
0,56
( 0 . 5 6 )
- 4 , 1 9 *
( 2 , 3 7 ) 0 , 7 2
80
P h i t
4 0 0 . 0 6 "
o ! i i "
( 0 . 0 2 )
0 . 7 3 *
( 0 4 1 )
- 0 , 1 3 ( 1 , 2 0 ) 0,01 ( 0 , 0 1 ) 0 , 0 3 (0,05)
• 0 . 0 3 "
(0,01)
-0,21
( 0 . 1 9 )
0,12
( 0 . 7 2 ) 0,59
8 4
Dang
4 2 0 , 0 6 "
( 0 . 0 3 )
( 0 . 0 2 )
"'••
( 0 . 4 3 )
- 0 . 0 3
(U3)
0.01 ( 0 . 0 1 ) 0.03 ( 0 , 0 5 ) - 0 , 0 3 "
( 0 . 0 1 )
- 2 . 5 0
( 4 . 0 6 ) 0 J 7 ( 0 . 4 9 )
4 , 9 4
( 8 . 5 0 ) 0.S9
84
Dang
4 2
Ciing la nhom cac nuac tdi tii Chau Phi, Chau A, Trung My va Nam My. Muai quoc gia xep hang cudi Cling la cac quoc gia co miic thu nhap trung binh thap tu Nam My, Nam va Dong Nam A, va Tay Bac Phi.
Bang 3 trinh bay ket qua uoc lugng cac nhan to anh huong toi tai chinh bao tnim tong the. Cot thii nhat va thii hai trinh bay cac he so uoc lucmg cua bi6n dpc lap ddi voi mau d§y du. Nhu ky vong, dau cua biSn GDP, PRC, HDI, INS la duong trong khi dau Ciia bian PGR la am. Tai chinh bao tnim duac gia tang khi quoc gia tra nen giau co han khi he so cua bi6n GDP duong va co y nghia thong ke. Tuong tu, he so uoc lugng ciia biSn PRC va INS co y nghTa th6ng ke. Tang truang dan so cao co anh huang khong t6t tai tai chinh bao tnim
Muc dp tap trung tai san ngan hang co tac dpng tich cue tai tai chinh bao ttoim trong khi ky vpng la he thdng ngan hang co miic dp canh tranh cao se lam giam chi phi va tang miic dp ph6 biSn cua djch vy tai chinh. Tuy nhien, ket qua nay Wang dong vdi ket
luan cua Owen va Pereia (2018) rang he thong ngan hang cang tap trung thi kha nang tiep can cac tai khoan va khoan vay se tang len. Canh tranh trong he thong ngan hang se c6 tucmg tac khong tich cue vdi miic dp thong tin bat can xiing khi cac ngan hang lan CO dugc lgi the tit quy mo va da dang hda danh muc han cac ngan hang nho. He s6 udc lugng cua biln rui ro ngan hang khong cd y nghTa thdng ke,
Tai cpt thii 2 ciia Bang 3, chung tdi nhan thiy mdi quan he giira phai Ui^n con ngudi va tai chinh bao tnim cd hinh chii U. Ket qua nay xac nhan lap luan ve su khac biet trong anh hudng cua phat tri6n con ngudi tdi tai chinh bao tnim tai cac miic do khac nhau.
Cd mpt vai diem dang chii y khi chiing toi tach mSu nghien cim thanh hai nhdm la cac qude gia phat tnen {cpt 3) va cac qude gia dang phat trien (cdt 4 va 5). Ddi v(Ji cac quoc gia phat tn6n, he so udc lugng cua bien PRC khdng cd y nghia thdng ke nhung h?
sd udc lugng ciia bien HDI cd y nghTa ihi^i'i. k^
Dieu nay cd nghia la khi nen kinh te phat in. i^j
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miic dp cao, phat trien con ngudi ddng oghla vdi su gia tang v6 tai chmh bao hiim. Paric & Mercado (2018) ciing phat hien thdy phat trien he thdng tai chinh khdng din tdi su thay ddi tai chinh bao triim tai cac nudc phat trien. Ty le lam phat khdng cd tac ddng tdi tai chinh bao triun the hien qua he sd udc lugng khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke. Ddi vdi cac quoc gia dang phat trien, ty le lam phat cd dau duong va cd y nghia thdng ke. Ket qua nay dupc giai thich la tai thdi diem khdi dau cua he thdng tai chinh tien te, vdng quay tien te gia tang va su gia tang nhu cau do lam phat cao se khuyen khich ngudi dan sii dung nhieu dich vu tai chinh han (Sousa, 2015). Han nira, mac dii he sd udc lugng ciia bi8n HDI cd dSu am va khdng cd y nghta thdng ke (cpt 4), khi bd sung them bien binh phuang (cgt 5), chiing tdi nhan thay mdi quan he duai dang chii U tdn tai. Tai cac nudc dang phat trien, miic dp tap trung tai san ngan hang cao dan tdi tai chinh bao tnim dupc cai thien hon.
Nam cpt dau tien ciia Bang 4 trinh bay cac nhan td tac dpng tdi cau phan tai khoan. Thu nhap tang, phat trien tai chinh, chat lugng the che tang cd tac ddng duang tdi viec sd hiiu va sir dung tai khoan. Tdc dp tang trudng dan sd cao lam suy giam tai chinh bao tnim. Ddi vdi cac quoc gia phat trien, ty le lam phat giam va chi sd phat trien con ngudi tang lam gia tang su phd bien va sii dung tai khoan. Ddi vdi cac quoc gia dang phat trien, thu nhap tang, quy md thi trudng tai chinh md rdng, tdc dp tang trudng dan sd thap, va chi sd phat trien con ngudi cao lam tang cau phSn tai khoan.
Nam cdt tiep theo cua Bang 4 trinh bay udc lugng cac nhan td tac dpng tdi cku phan thanh toan. Ddi vdi toan bd mau nghien ciiu, he sd ciia hai bien GDP va BAC cd dau ducmg va cd y nghTa thdng ke. Mirc dp tap trung cua he thdng ngan hang cao, mac du phan anh su thi^u canh tranh trong he thdng ngan hang, lai cd tac ddng thiic day hoat ddng thanh toan.
K§t qua nay dugc tim thay khi hdi quy phuang trinh (I) v(ji cac qude gia dang phat trien. Phat trien he thdng tai chinh va ty le lam phat van la cac nhan td quan trgng giai thich su bien ddng cua cau phan thanh toan tai quoc gia dang phat trien. Chi sd phat trien con ngudi cd y nghia thdng ke khi tach biet cac qude gia trong mlu theo hai nhdm trong khi bien chat lugng the che khdng cd y nghia thdng ke.
Nam cdt cudi cua Bang 4 trinh bay udc luong cac nhan to anh hudng tdi cau phan vay va gui. Nhin
chung, thu nhap tang, quy md he thong tai chinh tang se thiic day hoat ddng vay va giii mac dii nhan td thii hai khdng cd y nghia thdng ke tai mau cac quoc gia phat trien. Chat lugng the che cd tac ddng tich cue tdi hoat dpng vay va gui tai toan bd mlu cac quoc gia va cac quoc gia phat trien. Doi vdi cac qude gia dang phat trien, he sd rui ro he thdng ngan hang mang dau am cho thay he thdng ngan hang chap nhan miic dp riii ra cang cao thi mtic do phd bien cua tai chinh bao triun cang gia tang. Cd mdt vai each giai thich cho ket qua nay. Thir nhat, de md rgng sd lugng ngudi vay hoac thuc hien cac chinh sach ciia Chinh phu ddi vdi ngudi ngheo, he thdng ngan hang tai cac nudc dang phat trien phai ndi Idng cac dieu kien cho vay. Thii hai, neu cac td chiic tai chinh vi md khdng dupc quan ly chat che, viec gia tang qua miic hoat dpng cho vay cd the lam giam di miic dp lanh manh ciia he thdng tai chinh (Khan, 2011).
4.2. Dg virng cua kit qud
Chiing tdi thuc hien kiem dinh dp vung cua ket qua thdng qua vice: (l)xacdinh va loai bd cac ngoai lai, (2) lira chgn each phan loai qude gia, (3) loai bd mdt vai qude gia cd chi sd tai chinh bao tnim cao va thap nhat, va (4) thay the mdt sd bien dgc lap bang cac bien dai dien khac. Ddi vdi kiem dinh dp vung thir nhk, chiing tdi loai bd cac 6 qude gia cd quan sat vupt qua mirc 2,58 lan dp lech chuan tir gia tri trung binh. Thir hai, chiing tdi sir dung phan loai cac qude gia theo Ngan hang the gidi thanh hai nhdm, 42 qude gia cd thu nhap cao va 40 quoc gia cd thu nhap trung binh. Thii ba, chiing tdi loai 3 quoc gia cd chi sd tai chinh bao trum cao nhat va 3 quoc gia cd chi sd tai chinh bao tnim thap nhat. Thii tu, chiing tdi six dung cac bien khac do ludng cac bien dpc lap gdm bien do ludng phat trien he thdng tai chinh, mirc dp tap trung tai san, va chat lugng the che. Ket qua nghien cuu van viing chac ddi vai ca bdn thay ddi ke tren.
5. K i t luan
Nghien cim ciia chiing tdi thuc hien phan tich thanh phan chinh hai budc de tinh chi sd tai chinh bao triim, cac cau phan cua nd va sir dung md hinh tac dpng ngau nhien de xac djnh cac nhan td anh hudng tdi tai chinh bao triim. Ket qua nghien ciru bao gdm hai ngi dung chinh sau;
Thii nhat, hdi quy cac nhan td tac ddng tdi tai chinh bao triim cho thdy diki kien kinh te xa hdi thuan
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Igi n h u t h u n h a p t a n g , q u y m d thi t r u d n g tai c h i n h h e t h d n g tai chinh n h u thanh toan v a v a y m u g n . Do tang, chat l u g n g thd chd tang thiic d a y tai chinh b a o vay, song song v d i vi?c tang m i i c d g b a o p h u v6 s d t r u m p h a t tridn. N g o a i ra, chinh p h u cm kidm scat hiru tai khoan, chinh phii cac q u d e gia c a n c d giai tdc d p gia tang d a n sd v a tang c u d n g phat trien c o n p h a p k h u y d n khich n g u d i d a n sii d u n g nhidu san n g u d i d o d a y la dieu kien cSn thiet de phat trdn tai p h 4 m va dich v u tai c h m h h a n . C a n chii y la chidu chlnh b a o h i i m . G i a tang dan sd nhanh n h u n g n g u d i h u d n g tac d d n g c u a d a c didm h e t h d n g n g a n h a n g dan k h d n g d u g c frang bi dSy du vB y td, giao due va la k h a c so v d i ky v p n g thdng t h u d n g . G i a tang q u y thu n h a p se khien k h a n a n g tiep c a n cac dich v u tai m d h e t h d n g tai chinh chi cd t a c d d n g tich c u e tdi chinh eiia n g u d i dan bi suy g i a m d a n g kd, tai chinh bao trOrn t^i c a c q u d e gia d a n g phat trien.
Thii h a i , tdn tai s u khac biet giiia e a c n h a n td a n h 0 m i i c d p phat trien tai chinh t h a p hoae trung binh, h u d n g tdi e a c cau phSn cua tai chinh b a o t n i m va cac q u d e gia d a n g phat trien se n h a n d u g c nhidu Igi giCra cac n h d m q u d e gia. D a c didm ciia h e thdng ich eiia viec m d rpng q u y m d thi t n r d n g tai ehinh ddi n g a n h a n g k h d n g p h a i la nhan td quan trpng anh v d i tai chinh b a o tnim. T r o n g khi d o , m d r g n g q u y h u d n g tdi cau p h a n tai k h o a n n h u n g lai cd anh md thi t r u d n g tai chinh k h d n g p h a i la giai p h a p hieu h u d n g tdi cau phSn thanh toan va e a u phSn vay va q u a d c a c qude gia phat tridn. T y Id l a m phat khdng giri. Vide s d hiiu tai khoan n g a y mpt trd ndn p h d cd anh h u d n g tdi cac q u d e gia phat tridn n h u n g lam bidn h o n n h u n g ydu td cdt ldi e u a tai chinh bao t n i m phat c a o lai hd t r g phat trien tai chinh b a o t n i m tai la n g u d i d a n p h a i thu h u d n g d u g c n h i m g ich Igi cua cac q u d e gia d a n g phat trien.
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