CHAU AU VGfl B A I TOAN T A N G TRl/OfNG VA VIEC L A M
TS.DINHVANHAI
Khung hodng ng eong tgi Hy Lgp dd cd ddu hiiu ldng diu nhUng hdu het cdc chuyin gia kinh tidUdodn, luc dja gid chdu Au se rai vdo suy thodi trong nda ddu ndm 2012. Cdc biin phdp "thdt lUng bupc bung" khdc nghiet duge triin khai, khiin viee thdc ddy kinh titdng trUdng trd nin xa vdi vd cdc nUde chau Audd phdi xem xit lgi vdn di cua minh.
"Thit limg buoc bung" khdng phii la "than diTOc"
Chau Au theo nhu Icri Thu tucing Diic - Ba Angela Merkel bay td thi dang phai trai qua "thii thach khae nghiet nha't trong nhieu thap ky qua"
Trong ban 2 nam qua, da cd qua nhieu cac cugc hgp mat "lan cudi" dugc dien ra de tim giai phap cho cudc khiing hoang ng chau Au va de tao ludng sinh khi mdi cho boat ddng eiia Lien minh chau Au (EU) trong nam 2012. Ngay 30/01/2012, tai Bruxelles, Bi, EU da quye't dinh lya chgn van de thue day vigc lam va tang trudng la uu tien ldn nha't tai Hdi nghi thugng dinh khdng chinh thirc dau tien eiia nam.
Thiic day vigc lam va tang trudng la van de dci duge cac chuyen gia phan tieh kinh te'tai chau Au hdi thiie cac chinh pbii tir lau, bdi chi rieng cac chinh sach "thSt lung bugc byng" khdng the giup chau lyc nay giai quye't va'n de khiing hoang ng, ne'u khdng ndi la ed the gay nhieu phien toai hon eho chau Au.
Ngay trong thang daiu tien eiia nam 2012, Ha vien Tay Ban Nha da phai thdng qua gdi bign phap "that lung bugc byng" trj gia 8,9 ty Euro, gdm cae bien phap tang thue thu nhap va thue bat ddng san. Trong boi canh tham hyt ngan saeh vugt ngoai tam kiem soat, de nhan dugc tien giai ciiu cua qud'c te, d'n dinh tai cbinh, viec ap dyng cae bien phap that chat ngan sach ngat ngheo la can thie't, tuy nhien dieu nay chae chan chua dii de chira khdi "benh" eho Tay Ban Nha.
Ngay 13/1/2012, Cdng ty xe'p hang tin nhiem tin dung Standard & Poor's (S&P) da ha mdt bae tin nhiem tin dyng eua Phap, tir miie AAA xud'ng
AA+, ciing tric'n vgng tieu eye, Italia bi ha hai bac xuciiig BI3B+, lay Ban Nha bj ba hai bac xudng A, Bd Dao Nha bj ba bai bae xud'ng BB vdi trien vgng tieu eye... Theo S&P, eae nude chau Au chi lo cat giam ngan sach va that lung bugc byng khien khung hoang nghiem trgng hon do nhu cau noi dia giam, khdng kieh thich daiu tu. Quyet dinh nay ciia S&P dugc gioi chuyen gia danh gia se khien chau Au liin sau them vao cudc khiing hoang ng cdng vd'n da ngay cang tram trgng bdi khi Paris mat di vj tri hang daiu \ cii ehi scV tin dyng hoan hao se la mgt bat lgi kin vdi toan chau Au khi cap bai triing Phap Due ludn duge xem la hv vgng ve mgt tuong lai tuoi sang hon cbo Eurozone.
Nen kinh te "daiu tau" la Due gid day cung dang ben bd \ u c su\ thoai. Cugc khiing hoang ng cdng o chciu Au da khien nen kinh te'ldn nhat chau Au tang trudng am 0,25"o trong quy IV/2011 so vdi quy 111/2011. Cac chuyen gia kinh te tham chi cdn d y bao kinh te Diic se lai tang trucing am trong quy 1/2012 \a neu du bcio nay tro thanh hien thye thi nudc nav se roi vao tinh trang suy thoai (suy thoai kinh te dugc djnh nghia la 2 quy GDP tang trudng am lien tie'p)
Thdng tin nen kinh te Ireland, mgt thanh vien trong Eurozone mgt lain niia roi vao suy thoai eiing gay khdng it lo ngai eho cac nha hoach dinh ehinh sach chau Au khi sy phue hdi eiia khu vyc van het siic mong manh. Theo so lieu ciia Co quan thd'ng ke Ireland, sau khi giam 1,1% trong quy III/2011, GDP eua Ireland tie'p tyc giam 0,2% trong quy IV/2011, day nude nay trugt trd lai suy thoai. Theo eae nha phan tich, viee Ireland roi vao suy thoai eho tha'y nhiing ban che cua viec qua phy thuoc vao xua't khau manh de thiic day tang trudng kinh
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TMCHim-Thdng 4/2012 A
te. Nhan tdtich eye nay ed the lai trd thanb nguyen nhan cbinh pha hoai tang trudng khi boat ddng kinh te'tai cae nudc khac trong khu vyc phat trien cham lai. Trong khi xua't khau khdng dii manh dc duy tri dugc td'c dg tang trudng thi mgi nhu caiu trong nude ciing sut giam, mgt phan do cae chinh sach "that lung bugc byng" va c§t giam ehi tiim eiia cbinh pbii.
Cudc khimg hoang ng tai Eurozone khien mgi dy bao ve hire tranh kinh te'nam 2012 deu bj dieii chinh giam. Bi kiem che'boi hoat dcpng cung cci tai chinh va eae dieu kign thi trucmg lao dgng sa sut, chi tieu tieu diing cua Eurozone giam 0,1",. trong quy IV/2011 wi d y bcio se \cin tri trg trong hai quy dau nam 2012. Dciu tu d y bcio ciing sc giam do cae ehinh phii eat giam cbi tieu cdng trong khi cae edng ty tri hoan cae du an kinh doanb. Theo sci ligu edng bd'ciia Co quan thd'ng ke chau Au (Eurostat), tang trudng GDP ca nam 2011 cua Eurozone chi dat l,3"o, tha'p hon dy bao ban daiu la l,5",i. Lo ngai ban, GDP quv I\72011 giam 0,3",) so \'di quv trude dd, trong khi tang trudng GDP cimg kv nam 2010 la 0,7^0. Kinh te' Eurozone duge dy bao tie'p tyc tang trudng am 0,3% trong quy 1/2012. Vdi 2 quy tang trucing am lien tie'p, Eurozone se bi roi vao suy thoai kinh te.
Viee "that lung budc byng" trigt de khdng nhiing khie'n eae nganh san xua't ngirng trg, kinh te "1 ach" ma edn khie'n ty Ie that nghiep tang cao.
Theo bao cao mdi day cua Uy ban chau Au ve tinh hinh viec lam va phat trien xa hdi nam 2011, cudc khung hoang ng edng tai Eurozone da lam 6 trigu ngudi chau Au mat viee lam, trong dd, ddi tugng hi that nghiep dai ban chiem 40% va se edn tie'p tyc tang. Theo Eurostat, ty le that nghiep tai 17 nude trong Eurozone da tang len tdi 10,7% trong thang 1/2012. Day la ty le that nghiep eao nha't dugc ghi nhan ke tir khi ddng Euro ra mat nam 1999. Ciing theo udc dnh eiia Eurostat, sd ngudi that nghiep trong khu vyc Eurozone da tang them 185.000 ngudi trong thang 1/2012 len 16,925 trigu.
Nan that nghiep cang trd nen nghiem trgng hon khi phan ldn nhiing ngudi that nghiep edn d do tudi rat tre. Theo tinh toan d eae nen kinh te chau Au trong giai doan 2007 2010, khi GDP cua mdt qud'c gia mat di 1% tang trudng, se ed them 5,9% lao dgng tre mat viec lam. Vdi vigc nhieu nen kinh te EU tang trudng "i ach", tham ehi am trong nam 2011, ty le that nghiep trong lao ddng tre chau Au dang d miie eao nha't ke tir sau The chie'n II.
Tai Tay Ban Nha, 49,6% lao ddng tre that
HiNH 1: TV Ll THAT NGHlfP TAI CHAU AU (%)
"»\ HV I II iiiivli II III IV11 II iiiivli II III IV11 v l i I vh II iiiivji II iiiivj I II iiiivl iivh 20001 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I2OI2
Ngudn: Eurostat
nghigp, tiic la eii 2 thanh nien d nude nay thi 1 ngudi dang phai loay hoay tim vigc. O Hy Lap, ty le nay la 46,6%, Italia la 30,1%, Phap la 23,8%.
Ngay ca nhiing quci'c gia cd truyen thd'ng dn dinh nbu Dan Mach, Ha Lan hay Phain Lan eiing chju nhung ty Ig cao bie'm tha'y.
Nhung so lieu kinh te u am eiia EU ebo tha'y, chau Au van chua the giai duoe bai toan la giai quyet viee lam cho thanh nien. "That lung budc byng" khdng cdn duge coi la "than dugc" de vugt qua khiing hoang. Dd thye chat la "mdt vdng luan quan" giiia suy thoai "that lung budc byng"
tang trudng giam, tha't nghiep tang tie'p tyc suy thoai.
Thuc day viec lam va tang tri/dng, dong thdi siet chat ky luat ngan sach
Thira nhan cbinh saeh "that lung budc byng"
da tac ddng tieu eye de'n tang trudng kinh te' dai ban ciia cac nude va lam ty le that nghiep tang eao, ddng thdi trd thanh ganh nang cho cae nudc ng nan nhieu va ed nguy co day cae nudc nay vao vdng luan quan khimg hoang, cae nha lanh dao EU da cam ket se tao can bang giira tang trudng kinh te', giam ty le that nghiep va ehinh saeh "that lung budc byng" Trong tuyen bd'ehung eiing hanh dgng de tao vigc lam va thuc day tang trudng, eae nude EU keu ggi:
Ho trg cae doanb nghiep vira va nhd de md rdng eo bdi vigc lam nham dat dugc mdt thi trudng don nha't, chia khda then ehd't thue day tang trudng kinh te.
- Dat dugc thda thuan giam ganh nang thu tue, eai thign mdi trudng kinh doanh vao cud! nam nay.
Ban hanh cae chinh saeh thue thuan lgi, bai bd eae chinh saeh thue khdng cd lgi eho boat ddng kinh doanh; tao dieu kign cho vay de dang hon.
- Cung thao luan de tie'n de'n dd bd rao can thuang mai va tao thuan lgi hon eho hoat ddng
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Xcim nhcip t h i trucing, tao dic'u kign d.iu t u ; thuc dciN' t h u o n g mai xa dciu tu giiia EU vo\ Mv.
Tu\ en bci c h u n g nhcin djnh, dcii t u g n g t h a n h nien se d u g c dao tao cac kv n a n g lam \'ii'c nhii'u b o n , cae q u y va c h u o n g t r i n h ph.it trich vc^in c h u a d u g c d u n g den sc d u g c tricn khai dc' t.io viee lam. Tu\'cn bci trcMi da nhcin ducrc su tan d d n g cua n h i e u nha kinh d a o va theo C h u tich Uy b a n chau Au (EC) Jose M a n u e l Barroso thi
\ i g e d u a ra tu\'en bd' c h u n g ve t a n g t r u d n g va tao \ i e c lam la m d t b u d c di q u a n t r g n g ddi vdi t u o n g lai cua chau Au, d a c bigt vdi cac t h a n b nien d a n g t h a t n g h i e p .
Ben eanh t u y e n bd' tren, tai Hdi n g h i t h u g n g d i n h t h u d n g n i e n miia Xuan eua EU, ke't thiie n g a y 2/3/2012, 25/27 qud'c gia t r o n g EU (trir A n h va C d n g h d a Sec) eiing da chinh t h u c ky " H i e p u d c ve dn d i n h , p h o i h g p va q u a n ly t r o n g Lien m i n h tien te va k i n h t e " , t h e o dd cae c h i n h pbii b u d c p h a i t h y c thi n g a n saeh can bSng t h d n g q u a " q u y tae v a n g " h o a c phai ddi m a t vdi cac h i n h p h a t .
Theo Hiep udc, ta't ca cac n u d e EU phai tuan thii "quy tae v a n g " ky luat ngan saeh la tham hyt CO ca'u ngan saeh k h d n g dugc v u g t qiui 0,5% GDP.
Ddi vdi cae n u d e cd mire n g edng tha'p, tham h y t n g a n sach k h d n g d u g c v u g t qua 1% GDP, N g ciia tat ea cae n u d e EU k h d n g d u g c v u g t qua 60% GDP.
Cae n u d e ed n g edng cao hon 60% GDP (hign ed 24/27) phai giam n g tdi thieu 5% moi n a m .
Tat ea cac n u d e ky H i e p u d c nay phai d u a q u y d i n h ndi tren vao Hie'n p h a p va qua trinh nay se d o Toa an t u p h a p chau Au giam sat. Ne'u di ehgcb khdi q u y tac, tda an t u p h a p chau Au se p h a t tien 0,1% GDP ddi vdi t h a n h vien vi p h a m , tien p h a t se d u g c d i m g de i m g bd eho C o ehe dn d i n h chau A u (ESM tri gia k h o a n g 500 ty Euro, d y kieh se chinh thiic di vao b o a t d d n g tir t h a n g 7/2012 de thay the Q u y b i n h dn tai chinh chau A u -EFSF). EC
SC' theo ddi miie t h a m h y t n g a n sach va n g quoc gia. Nc'u tb.im h y t ngan sach eiia m g t n u d c vugt ngiicing 3% G D P / n a m , m g t co che' dieu ehinh se III d g n g van hcinh, Ihco dci EC khuye'n nghj nudc n.iy thyc hic}n mgt gcii bign p h a p bat bugc de binh cin tinh hinh.
Hai nucrc t h a n b vien EU la Anh va Sec khdng kv v.in kign n.iy vi lo ngai Higp ucic mdi trao qua nhieu Iham quyc'n c ho IC dv can thigp vao ehinh s.ic h kinh Ic cua cac nuiye nay. De Higp udc ngan s.ic h mcii ehinh thiic co higu lyc, trong nhiing th.ing tcii, 25 nucrc [•^^U da ky Higp udc cain phai phe chuan v.in kie'n nav. Hign chi cd Ireland tuyen be") sc d u a Hiep ucVc ra t r u n g cau y dan. Dy kie'n, e.ic nucri con l.ii se d u a ra quci'c hgi de xem xet thcing qua.
I h u tucing I )uc - Ba Angela Merkel nhan manh r.ing, chi c i c nucrc- tuan thu higp u d c nay mdi dii dii'Li kic'ii nhan mgt gdi ciiu trg tu ESM. Theo Ba Merkel, Higp ucic mc'ri ve tai chinh eiing vdi quy gicii ciiu ESM la "bucie tie'n nhd tren con dudng p h y c hdi long tin" eua eae nha d a u t u vdi EU. Chii tjch EC, Jose Manuel Barroso ciing cho rang, viec ky Higp u d c ngan sach chiing td EU dang chuyen bie'n tu mgt lien minh tien tc t h a n h mdt lien minh kinh te t h y c sy. Theo dng, EU d a n g phat di mot tin higu cbinh trj q u a n t r g n g \ di cae thi trudng va egng d d n g the gidi \ c sy thd'ng nha't eiia khoi va ve bign trang ciia EU. O n g Barroso edn cho rang viec t h d n g qua Higp u d c n g a n saeh lam eho ddng Euro trd t h a n b mgt " d d n g tien k h d n g the dao ngugc'', mgt d d n g tien ciia toan EU.
Tuy n h i e n , t h e o cac n h a p h a n tieh thi thuc te n h u n g gi n e u ra t r o n g ke h o ^ c h thiie day tang t r u d n g va vigc lam c u n g n h u H i e p u d c mdi khong ed gi mcii me, chi d u a ra n h u n g n g u y e n tSc chung c h u n g ma thie'u n h u n g d i e u k h o a n chi tie't ve viec lam t h e ' n a o d e can b a n g g i u a t a n g t r u d n g va vay ng, e u n g n h u k h d n g cd cac quye't saeh ey the de giai q u y e t tinh tr.ing that n g h i g p . Cae nha lanh d a o chau Au tren t h y e t e ' c u n g e h u a the ngdi yen khi ehi vai gid sau khi ky ke't H i g p u d c mdi tren, tai m g t cugc h g p b a o d Brussels, T h u t u d n g Tay Ban N h a M a r i a n o Rajoy d a thira n h a n qud'c gia nay se k h d n g d a t m y c tieu ve t h a m h y t n g a n sach t r o n g n a m nay, vdi miic t h a m h y t d y kien se len tdi 5,8% G D P t h a y vl miic 4,4% c a m ke't trudc do vdi EU. N h u vay, EC se b u d c p h a i h o a c img ho yeu eau ciia Tay Ban N h a ve m i i e cat g i a m tham h y t n g a n sach h o a c p h a i trirng p h a t h g . Xem ra con d u d n g nha't t h e h d a c h a u A u v a n cdn rat
n h i e u t r d n g a i . w
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