^ - J g " " " " " " " NGHieN CtfU - TRAO DOI
M 6 I QUAN H | GIQA LAM PHAT VA T A N G TRl/dNG
CO sd ly thuyet va thuc t^ 6 Vi^t nam
C d s d iy t h u y ^ c h o m d i q u a n h d giijta l a m p h a t v a t d n g t n / d n g
Nghien cUu cac ly tliuyet kinh le ve mdl quan h e giiia lam phat va tang trudng cho tlia'y lam phat c6 the tac dong tdi tang trUdng thong qua kenli tiet kiem va dau tU.
Trong do, dau tU se c6 lac dong ldi tang trUdng kinh le xel ca v4 mat lu'dng lan tinh hieu qu^, Dau lU co thUc sU Uiuc day tang trUdng hay khong se p h u thuoc rat nhieu vao hieu qu& d4u tU, dac biet trong trUdng hUp n h u cau dau tii ldn, D&u tu tliieu hieu qua kliong chi khong tliuc day tang tnj&ng m a con tao sllc ep lam gia tang lam phat trong n§n kinh te,
Cac n h a kinh te theo trUdng phai cd dien thong qua ly thuyet ve phia cung (supply - side) n h a n m a n h rang cSn thuc day tidt kiem va dau tu neu nfen kinh te hUdng tdi tang triidng; Con Keynes thi da dUa ra mpl mo hinh loan dien hdn - mo hinh diidng long cung va dUdng tdng can (AD - AS) de ket ndi lam phal va Iang IniUng, Theo ly thuyet cua Keynes, Uong ngan han, se co sU danh ddi giOa lam phal va tang IrUUng. Nghia la. mudn tang trUdng dat idc do cao thi phai chap nhan mot ly le lam phal nhat djnh.
Trong giai doan nay, tor do tang trUdng va lam phat di chuyen cting chiSu, Sau giai doan nay, neu h e p luc chap nlian Iang lam phal d e thuc day Iang IrUdng thi GDP cung khong tang them m a c6 xu hudng giam di,
Cac ly thuyet kinh te ciing da chi ra rang lam phat co the tac
dong Mdu cUc I4n tfch c;Uc ]6n tSng trUdng kinh id: T h e o Mundell (1965) va Tobin (1965), cd mdl lUUng quan ty 16 thuSn glQa lam phal va Iang IrUdng; hai IrUdng phai Keynes va InCtfng phai ti4n td deu cho rkng trong n g ^ h a n . chlnJi sach ndi long lien le kich thich tang trUdng, ddng IhUi lam gia tang lam phat,
DUa tren ly thuyet cua Keynes, mflt vai quan diem kinh te cho r i n g lam phal 6 mifc vila phai se thuc day tang IrUdng (Mubarik, 2005), Trong khi d6, mot so' nghien Cllu va thUc nghiem chu thay, lam phat cd the tac dgng tieu cUc den tang trUflng kinh le khi no vUpt qua mpl ngitSng nhat dinh [Ocran 2007; Klian va Senhadji. 2001). Tham chi ngay ca khi lam phal bang 0 hoac thieu phal cung se co a n h hudng lieu cUc ten tang trUdng kinh le.
Lam phat c6 tlie dem den sU bat on ve klia nang sinh tdl cua cac dU an dau lU trong tifdng lai, dong Ihdi nd dSn de'n cac chie'n lUdc dan li(
than trpng hdn - co nghia la han mUc dau ti( se sut giam va tang IrUdng Idnli t e s e thap hdn. Lam phat ciing lam suy giam kha nang canh tranh cua qudc gia khi gia c a hang hoa xuat kliau trd n e n dat dd hdn,,. Mot sd nghien cUu va thdc nghiem cho thay, lam phat cd t h e lac ddng tieu cUc den tang trUdng kinh te khi nd vUdl qua mdt ngudng nhat
T S . N G U Y E N T H | K I M T H A N H
" — VlCH TRl/dNG Vl$N CHI£N HApC NOAN HANG, NHNN
dinh. Fisher (1993) 1& ngUM Aka tign nghien eflu v & d e n6y da ket lu3n, khi lam phat tSng d mite do thS'p, md'i quan h e nay co th^
khdng ton tai, hoSc mang tinh dfing bi&'n, va lam phat 6 mite cao thi md'i quan hd nay I& nghich bleh.
Mdl so' nha nghien cUu sau nay nhU Sarel (1996). Gosh va Phillips (1998), Shan va Senhadji (2001), vk mot sd nha nghien cUu khac da co gang n h a n dien diem dac biet trong mfl'i quan he giiJta lam phat va tang trUdng kinh te. Bang cac nghien
• M D U 1 . M « Itian h i pu lam pbil . . . , • • - - - i i h i l l i l ' -
NHAT BAN D o n ' t l o o k b a c k
C H L T N G K H O A N VIET N A M S6' 1 77 - Thang 7/201 3
N G H I E N CCTU - TRAO DOI -
- G D P ( % ) - ^ C P I ( % )
2CD3 2DM 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 -GDP(%) -^»-CP\l%)
HAN QUdC
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - • - GDP (%) - • - CPI [%)
cijfu khac nhau, ho da tim ra mot ngUdng lam phat, m a tai nguSng do neu lam phat vUdt ngUSng se co tac dong tieu cUc (tac dong ngifdc chieu) den tang hUdng. Theo Sarel, ngUdng lam phat la 8%, theo Shan va Senhadji, ngUSng lam phat cho cac niidc dang phat trien la 11 - 12%, cac nUdc cong nghiep khoang 1 - 3 % . Nghien cUu cua Li (2006):
Sd lieu cho 90 nUdc dang phat t i i l n , giai d o a n 1961 - 2004, ngUdng la 14%/nam. Nghien cifu ciia Christoffersen va Doyle (1998) tim r a ngUBng la 13% cho cac nen kinh t^ chuydn doi va gan day nhat la nghien cdu cua tac g i i Khan (2005) da tap trung nghien cUu xac dinh mite lam phat tfl'i ifti, Kdt qua, Khan da tim ra miic lam phat tdi Uu ddi vdi cac nUcfc viing Trung Ddng va Trung A la khoang 3.2%.
Nhu vay, cho d ^ nay, chifa cd mot mfl hinh hay ly thuyet duy nhat dfing nao c6 th€ dien dat mdi quan h § gitih lam phat v a tang trUdng.
TuUng quan nSiy p h a i duuc xem xet cu thi trong ttttig di^u kign kinh t d
2DCG 2004 2005 200S 2007 20DB 2009 2010 2011 - ^ G D P ( % ) -B-CPiro
_ NgBlnF^gcvclb^kedemm:
va tai cac thdi diem xac dinh.
Sau khi xem xet nhieu quan diem ly thuyet cua cac trUdog phai khac nhau, cd ihe thay rang' Moi trUdng phai cd mpl quan diem rieng, mo hinh rieng de chiftig minh mdi quan hfl giiia lam phat va tang trUdng. Tuy nhien, diem chung trong quan didm cua cac trudng phai la mo'i quan h e giCfa lam phat va tang trUdng khdng phai la mot chieu m a c6 sU tac dflng qua lai. Tac dong nay diidc tmy6n dSn chil ydii thflng qua kenh tiet kiem va dau tU. Trong ngan han, khi lam phat con d mi(c thap, lam phat va tang tnidng thUdng cd mdi quan h e ciing chieu. Nghia la, neu mudn tang tnrdng dat td'c do cao hdn thi p h ^ chap nhSn tang lam phal, the hien thong qua viec gia tang dau tU.
Tuy nhien, viec gia tang dau tU lien tuc (tite lam phat vUdt qua mdt ngUdng cho phep) se vUdt qua kh&
nang hap thu cua nen kinh td cung n h u k h a nang p h a n bo vdn cua h e thdng tin dung, Dieu nay se lai gay tdc dung ngUdc lai lam suy giSm
hieu quA dau tU, va tit do tac ddng tieu cite len tang trUdng. Do vay, de dam bSo tang trUdng trong dai han va ki^m soat lam phat 6 mUc hup ly, d i l u can thid't trUdc het chinh la phdi nang cao chat lUdng hieu qud quan ly va sU dung vfl'n dau tU.
Trdn cd s 5 nhiaig ly thuyet va nhiing nghien ciiu thdc nghiem nhii vay, cac qudc gia da lUa chon cho minh nhOng each IhUc khac n h a u d e dat dUdc muc lieu tang trUdng cao trong khi van kiem che dddc lam phat, Cu the, cac nUdc phat trien thUdng Uu tien lUa chon giai phap tang truSng kinh te IhUc chat, dfl la diia tren cd sd gia ca on d m h b mifc thap Can cU bien luan cho giai phap nay la:
Trong nen kinh te thi trUdng, lam phat on dinh thi tinh hinh dU bao dUdc nang cao, ddng thdi ky vong cua cong chung dfli vdi lam phat thap. Di&u nay khflng chi giiip cac nha dau tii co the xay ddng dUdc cac phuung an tdi ifu de dau tU hieu qua ma con giiip dn dinh lam ly ngifdi tieu dtuig, gop p h a n thuc day tang trUdng kinh te ihuc chat, Thdng nhat vdi nhiing nghien cifti thUc nghiem d tren, h a u het cac nUdc phat trien chon mifc lam phat gan 2 % la mifc Ifli Uu cho tang tnfdng. Tuy nhien, tai cac quoc gia nay, lam phat dn dinh chi la didu kien du cho tang tnfdng kinh te, viec Chinh p h u Uu h e n ngan sach trong viec phat trien ngudn lUc, vdn va nang cao trinh do khoa hoc cflng nghe mdi la dieu kien can thiet nhat de thuc day tang trUdng ben viing trong thdi gian qua (xem Bieu
ddi).
Stf 177 - Thang 7/2013 CHLfNG KHOAN VIET N i U ^
r^^iriit'iiiiriili] „nm^„ fHu. TRAP O6I
Nguon NHNN va TCfK BiiD 46 5. Ti^t hUm - diu tv vd nhap sl«u
- ^ - a u n 2005 - 2010
U,i.i.i
Ngudn Uybaa ClimsHTalcbinb Qudc gia vn Ting cuclhdng ki
Trong khi dd, ddi vdi nhitng nen kinh le mdi noi va dang phat trien, de Ihiic day tang tnfdng kinh te, vide cha'p n h a n mpl mifc lam phal cao hdn la mot dieu tai yeu, Tuy nhifin, ciing phai nhin n h a n khi lam phal tang qua c:aa, vUdt qua mpt ngUBng nao do lai cd lac dung ngUdc trd lai keo tang hUdng kinh te di xuo'ng (c6 the' thay trong
trUdng hdp cdc n^n kinh td' mdi ndi khi lam phat dat dd'n ngUdng 6% d a k h i e n tang trUdng kinh te nhfing n a m tidp theo d6u sut gidm m a n h ) . Di^u ndy cdng nhdn m a n h vai trd cua vide ki§m soat lam phat 5 mifc dn djnh d e t h u c d a y tdng trudng kinh te b i n vifng (xem Bieu dd 2),
Moi quan h f giCKa lam phat va timg trUdng tai Viet Nam
Sau hdn 20 n a m thUc hien cdng cupc doi mdi, iflc dp tang trUdng kinh te cua Viet N a m khdng ngifng gia Iang, Ndu nhU trong giai doan ddu ciia ihdi ky ddi mdi (1986 - 1990). GDP chi dat mifc tang tnfdng binh quan !a 4,4%/nam thi t U n a m 2000 cho den nam 2008, ty le nay da tang len mUc binh quan la 7% mdl nam, Uong dd ndm 2006. 2007. GDP binh quan da dat tren 8%/nam. Mac dti ty le nay da cd phdn chilng lai tif nam 2009 do tac ddng cua cudc khung hodng kinh te. tai chinh toan cdu. song Viet Nam van dUdc ddnh
gia Id m&t trong nhiing qu6c gia c6 td'c dd tdng triiSng cao co cd c^u kinh td' c h u y e n dich t h e e hifdng tich cUc vd dd vUdt qua ngUdng nUdc dang phat trien cd thu nhap thap vd trd t h a n h nUdc cd mifc thu n h a p tnmg binh vdo n a m 2010.
Tuy nhien. bdn c a n h nhijtng kgt qua kha quan ve tdng trUdng kinh tg', Vidt Nam lai phdi dd'i m a t vdl nguy cd lam phat gia tang khdng on dinh (xem Bi^u do 3. 4).
Can nguydn nhdn ddn den lam phal tai Viet N a m giai doan v i a qua dUdc n h a n dinh la do nhijfng hat cap trong cd ca'u kinh te vd hieu qua dau tU thdp. Trong dieu kien lUdng vd'n dau tU todn xa hdi li&n luc md rdng trong giai doan 2000 - 2010, cd cd'u kinh t e c h a m chuyen ddi theo thdi cudc da anh hudng ldn de'n hieu qua sU dung vdn cua n e n kinh le. Trong giai doan 2006 - 2010, ty le long vdn d i u hf todn xa hpi/GDP ludn d miJfc cao, trong khi tdc dp tang tnfdng kinh te thUC chi dat tnmg binh khodng 7%/nam da khie'n cho h e so IGOR hnmg binh giai doan ndy tang cao. len mite 7.17 (cao h d n kha nhieu so vdi ICOR cua giai doan 2000 - 2005^
vd ICOR cua cdc nUdc dang phat trien khdc^), Hieu qua dau tU sut gidm m a n h da dan den nhieu he luy lieu cUc dd'i vdi n e n kinh le n h d
\ i e c mat cdn ddi cd ban ve cung cau tren thi tnfdng va ket qud la lam phat dd trd thdnh mpt thach thifc ldn ddi vdi n e n kinh te Viet N a m lii n a m 2004 den nay (xem Bieu d o 5, 6 vd 7).
Ben canh do, q u a q u a n sat, dii h e u thdng k e v e dien h i e n lam phat vd tdng trudng tif n a m 2000 den n a y cho thg^y khi lam phat 6
1 H5 s6' ICOR binh quan cua giai do^n 2000-2005 1^ 4,89 (tinh theo gia so sSnh nam 1994)
2 Cg the, he so ICOR cia cac nu6c ( c i r g giai dogn p h ^ tn^n v d VIgt Nam) nhif sau: Malayxia t n i i g binh diiSi 5 trong giai do^n 2001- 2008; Indongxia tmng binh 1^ 4,4 trang giai dogn 2001-2008; Thai Lan trung binh 1^ 4,8 trang giai dogn 2001-2008. (Nguon; Fukumari Kimura, Soji Samikawa, 4/2009)
CHL/NG KHOAN VIET N A M So 177 - Thdng 7/201 3
NGHltN Cdu • TRAO o6l i
ngUdng thap, dudi 5 % tif n a m 2000 - 2003 thi tdng Inf&ng kinh te tddng dd'i cao va 6n dinh. Song, khi lam phdt xap xi hodc d mite hai con so, td ndm 2007 - 2011 thi tdng tnfdng CO xu hifdng chiJng lai vd gidm xudng. Lam phat gia tdng manh va khd kiem sodt trong giai doan 2007 - 2011 ngodi nhiing tdc dong trite tiep va tdc dong trd tif yeu to tien te cdn phai ke den nhCfng tdc ddng tif ngoai sinh khi n ^ kinh te' chfnh thite hdi n h a p day du vao kinh td thd' gidi (xem Bieu do 8).
Nhif vay, cd the nhan thay rang, mdl quan h e giiaa lam phat va tang tnidng tai Viet Nam dien ra phii hUp vert cac ket ludn rut ra tif cdc ly thuydt kiiih te. Tuy nhien, viec theo du6i mo hinh phat trien kinh
25 00 -, 20 00 15 00 10 00 5 00
-5 00
A .
.^.^..,4-vCA/\ A A
' • • y " -"^ N . . 4 . > - ~ ^
.---'^
2000 ^ 2001 2002 2003 ' 2004 2005 200B 2007 200B " 2009 2010 2011 ' 2012
1 GDP grmv ffi (yoy) — • — C R (yoy)
t^ chii trgng vao tang hifdng, thien ve Idpng nhi&u hdn la vd chdt. tang tnidng kinh td chu yeu diia vdo sU tdng vdn dau hf, s^ dung Iao ddng re, khai thac tdi nguyen tho va gia c&ng hang xuat khlu,,.. trong khi hidu qua sfi dung vd'n cdn thap dd tao ap Idc lam gia tdng lam phat tU nam 2007 - 2011. Chinh vi the, md mra quan hd nay d a khdng di theo xu hildng chung cfla cdc nddc trong khu vufc, ddc bigt Id giai doan phuc
hdi sau kliiing hoang kinh le todji cdu, tdc dd iang cua CPI thudng cao hdn tdc dd tang tnfdng kinh te, lam phal CO liic da vddt qua ngifSng nghien cifu md cdc nhd kinli te da chi ra, Tuy nhien, lam phdt d mifc cao se d e m lai nhiJfng hau qua lieu cifc cho nen kinh te va anh hUdng den ddi sdng cua dan cd, nhdt la tdng Idp ngheo. thu nhap thap, Chinli vi the, budc sang n a m 2011.
quan diem dieu hanh cua Dang vd Chinh phii da co nhieu doi mdi trong viec nhin nhdn mdi quan h e giila tang tnfdng va l a m phdt - chiing ta khdng the tang trUdng bdng mpi gid, chong lam phat ddi hoi phdi co sU ddnh ddi, Nghi quyet 11 cua Chinh p h u da khang dinh kiem che lam phdt, dn dinh kinh le vi md la muc Ueu ifu tien bang dau nam 2011, 2012 Budc sang nam 2013, tiep tuc nhan thdc dddc tdm quan hong cua mdi quan h e giOa lam phdt vd tang tnfdng, S a n g vd Chinh phii van dat kiem sodt lam phdt la muc lieu hang dau d e dat tdi dn dinh vi md.
Hien tai, Viet N a m vdn chda cd nghien cUu cu the nao ve ngUdng h i e u qud cho lam phat Theo Nghien cUu bUdc d i u cda Quy Tien te Quoc tg' (IMF, 2006) ve miic dd
lam phat & Viet N a m vdi cac nifdc Dong Nam A dd chi ra rdng, mite lam phdt tdi ifu cho tang tnfdng kinh te d cdc mfdc viing Ddng Nam A, Uong do cd Viet Nam khodng 3,6%. Tuy nhidn, con so ndy vdn chi la dich den cua Viet Nam trong tUdng lai. Chinh vi vay, de cd the kiem sodt vd phat huy tinh tUdng hd trong mdi quan he ndy mot cdch CO hieu qua, khong de lam phal trd thdnh van d e bat ldi ddi vdi nen kinh te noi chung va tang trUdng kinh te ndi rieng trong ddi han, can thid't phai cd nhifng nghien cifu bai ban, xdy duiig md hinh Unh loan va du bao dddc nguBng hieu qua cho lam phdt. hd trd tich cifc cho tang trUdng ben \nin^ trong mdi giai doan phat trien, Ben canh do, d e giam site ep len lam phal, ndng cao chat lUdng tang trUdng kinh te, can thiet tap trung thUc hien hieu qua cdng cuoc tai cP cau nen kinh te', dac biet la tai cP can ddu lU cdng, ndng cao chat iUdng quan ly va hieu qud sU dung vdn dau tU, ®
Tai lifu tham khSo:
- Relationship between inflation and economic growth-Vikesh Gokal, Subnna Hanif (2004);
- The Relationship between Inflation and Growth: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach for Developed and Developing Countnes -Raul Ibarra, Danilo Tmpkin(2011),
- Website cua Ngan hang Nha nu9c, T6ng cgc thfl'ng ke v^ mOt sfii trang web cDa cac t6 chiJc quoc t^
g 7/201 3 C H O N G K H O A N VIET •
