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NGHIEN C l / U - T R A O D d i ^gjt

PHlTdNG PHAP TIMH LAO DONG DITTHITA TRONG NONG NGHIEP CUA CAC NUDC TREN THE GIOI

Nguyen Hoa Binh

DUdi sir hu6ng dan, giup d d cua ILO {To chijfc Lao dong quoc te) den nay hern 200 quoc gia va vung lanh tho tren the giofi da t 6 chiifc dieu tra liTc luong lao dong (Labour Force Survey) n h i m thu thap nhUng thong tin chD yeu ve so lUUng v^ chat lUtfng lao dong, tinh trang viec lam, that nghiep, thieu viec lam,... phuc vu cho viec hoach djnh chmh sach ve lao dong, viec lam va xay dUng cdc ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hpi d moi nUcfc.

C

udc dieu tra nay dUpc thue hien d c i c nude t d n h i l u nam qua (nhU: Nhat B i n to chQc dieu tra tQ n i m 1947, T h i i Lan Co quan thdng k l qude gia (NSO) dieu tra tQ nam 1963,...). NhUng d Viet Nam, cudc d i l u tra nay (gpi l i dieu tra lao ddng - v i l e lam) dupe t d chQc lln dau v i o nam 1994 theo quyet dinh sd 71 QD-TTg ngay 24/02/1994 ciia Thii tudng Chfnh phu va giao cho Bp Lao ddng - ThUdng binh v i Xa hpi chii tri vdi s u t h a m gia phdi hpp cOa Tdng cue Thdng k l . TQ n i m 2007 cudc dieu tra lao ddng - viec lam dupc chuyen tQ Bd Lao ddng - Thuong binh - X i hpl sang Tdng cue Thdng ke chit tri v i t d chQc d i l u tra cho den nay.

Ve pham vi, ddi tUpng cua cudc dieu tra n i y d e i c nUdc thUdng tap trung v i o nhQng ngQdi tQ dii 15 tudi t r d l l n (gpi l i iQc iQpng lao ddng) thupc hai khu vuc ( t h i n h thi v i ndng thdn).

Nginh ndng nghiep vdi nhQng die thu nhU: Hoat dpng ndng nghiep mang tfnh t h d i vu eao; trinh dp hpc v i n , ky n i n g tay n g h i cua lao dpng ndng nghiep ndi chung cdn t h i p ; gia tang d i n sd, lao dpng

ndng nghiep eao; dien tich d i t ndng nghiep bj thu hdi phye VIJ eho qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa, do thi hda ngay d n g n h i l u ; sin x u l t ndng nghiep tai bj le thudc rat Idn vao cac dieu k i l n t u nhien (dja hinh, thd nhudng, khi h i u , thdi t i l t , t h i l n tai: bao, lut, han han, s i u benh, djch benh),... Do v i y ket q u i s i n xuat ndng nghiep thUdng khdng dn djnh, hieu q u i kinh t l , nang s u i t lao ddng t h i p hon n h i l u nganh kinh te khac, thu n h i p va ddi sdng n h i n khau, lao dpng ndng nghiep gap nhieu khd k h i n . Day l i nhdng nguyen n h i n chfnh dan den lao ddng ndng n g h i i p (ehiem p h l n Idn luc lupng lao ddng d ndng thdn) bj Q dpng va d u thQa ngay c i n g n h i l u trong qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, h i l n dai hda tao nen sQc I p r l t Idn ve g i l i quyet cdng an v i l e lam, b i o ve mdi trudng, xda doi g i i m ngheo v i phat trien ben vuTig d nhieu nude tren the gidi (trong dd cd Viet Nam).

Bdi vay, mdt c i u hdi dupe d i t ra t d n h i l u n i m nay cho ILO va eic nha kinh t l n g h i l n cii'u v l lao dpng, v i l e lam t r i n the gidi l i b i n g each nao de eo the nhan biet v i tfnh toan dupc so tao ddng dU thda trong ndng

nghiip (hiin nay van ehUa dUpc thu thap, tinh t o i n mdt c i c h day dii trong cudc dieu tra lUc lUpng lao dpng hoie cic cupe dieu tra ndng thdn, ndng nghiep khic). Phai ehang trong n g i n h ndng nghiep dang tdn tat mdt nghjeh ly l i cd tlnh trang lao ddng d u thQa (tfnh b i n g ngudi/nam) ngay ddi vdi nhQng lao dpng dang hoat ddng s i n xuat trong nganh { k l c i nhQng ngQdi duoe coi la ed viee lam va lam dit sd gid/sd n g i y cdng lao ddng theo qui djnh trong cupe dieu tra lUc lupng lao ddng h i l n hanh)?

Theo hudng nghien cifu mdi nay, Robinson (1936) cd t h i l i ngUdl dau tien dua ra khai n i l m "thdt nghiip trd hinh" (disguised unemploment) lien quan tdi nhdng ngudi tuy cd viec l i m nhUng ngUdi ddng, viec it, khdng sQ dung h i t quy thdi gian hoie ky n i n g n g h i n g h i i p vdi nang s u i t lao ddng rat thap va ddng gdp rat it hoac khdng dang ke v i o p h i t trien s i n xult. Eckaus (1955) khi l i p he thdng p h l n tfch quan he giQa t i l u chuIn ky t h u i t v i lao ddng d u thQa cung chi ra rang "that nghiep tra hinh" tdn tai vdi trinh dp ky thuat hien tai khdng thay ddi khi rut ra khdi ndng trai mdt

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s6 lao ddng v i n khdng Idm gidm sdn luang. Nurkse (1953) thi lai cho r i n g cd iao ddng d u thQa moi khi tien h i n h nhifng thay ddi trong mdt t d chufc. A.Lewis (1954) trong ly t h u y l t nhi n g u y i n (Dualism) cd the l i nhd kinh ti hoe ddu tien dua ra "thudt ngCt lao ddng dU thifa' (the concept of surplus labour). Ly t h u y l t n i y cho r i n g cic n i n kinh te cd hai khu vuc kinh t l song song tdn tai: Mdt la khu vUc t r u y i n thdng, ehii y l u l i s i n xuat ndng n g h i i p cd d i e trung la r l t tri tre, nang s u i t iao ddng r l t t h i p ( n h i t la d nhdng nude n g h l o ) ; hai la khu vuc edng nghiep hien dai d t h i n h thj ed d i e trung n i n g s u i t lao dpng, t i l n cdng v i tich luy cao. TQ quy t i c s i n pham can bien cua lao ddng (marginal product of labour), trong mdi tUOng quan giQa vdn, dat dat, cdng n g h i vdi lao ddng lam g i i m n i n g s u i t can b i l n ciia lao ddng tdt khdng, dng dua d i n khai mem: "neu mdt sd lao ddng tit khu vue truyen thdng ed theduac gidi phdng md khdng Idm gidm tong sdn luang ndng nghiip, phdn ndy eua lUc luang lao ddng Id lao ddng duthda". Ly thuyet nhj nguyen dupe n h i l u nha kinh t l ndi t i l n g (nhu G.

Ranis, J Fei, Harris) t i l p tuc nghien cQu. Luan cd cua hp x u l t p h i t tii k h i n i n g p h i t t r i l n va tiep nhan lao

dpng cua khu vuc edng nghiep hiin dai. Khu vyc n i y ed n h i l u k h i n i n g lua chpn cdng n g h i s i n x u l t , trong dd cd cdng nghe sQ dung n h i l u lao ddng nen v l n g u y i n t i c cd t h i thu hut h i t lupng lao ddng duthQa cua khu vUc ndng n g h i i p .

Mpt hudng p h l n tich k h i c dUa t r i n ly t h u y l t nhj n g u y i n la p h l n tich k h i n i n g di chuyen lao d d n g tQ khu vUc ndng t h d n (ehii yeu l i lao d d n g ndng n g h i i p ) ra thanh thi (khu vUc cdng n g h i i p ) m i Todaro l i mdt d i l n hinh. Cic t i e g i i k h i c : Amaresh Dubey, trudng dai hpc t d n g hpp NorthEastern Hill, Shillong, India; Richard PalmerJones v i Kunal Sen, trUdng dai hoc t d n g hpp East Anglia t r o n g n g h i l n cQu "Du thQa lao dpng, d u true x i hpi v i di cU ndng t h d n - t h i n h t h i cua An D d " da sQ d y n g mdt b d dQ lieu vi m d cua c i c c i n h i n ngudi di cUtQ ndng t h d n den d c khu vuc dd t h i cting vdi nhQng ngudi khdng di cU d l k i l m djnh d y d o i n cua A.Lewis r i n g di cU ndng t h d n - t h i n h thj ta sUdi e h u y i n chO yeu cua lao d d n g ndng n g h i i p dU thQa d i n d c thanh phd.

Trong hon 30 n i m c i i each v i m d cifa cua Trung Qude, kha n h i l u hpc g i i t r o n g va n g o i i nude Trung Qude [Chenery v i Syrquin

(1975); Yang &Tisdell (1991);Taylor (1993); Wang (1994); Cook (1996);

Hu (1997); Rawski & Mead (1998);

Chen (2004); Wang v i Ding (2006);

Dr. Yinhua MAI and Dr. Xiujian Peng (2009);...] d l n l u ten cac quan d i l m ve lao d d n g dU thQa trong ndng n g h i i p , ndng t h d n d Trung Qude. Nhin chung k h i i n i l m dUa ra ciia e i c hpc g i i cung khdng khic n h i l u vdi thuat ngQ lao ddng dU thQa d khu vdc t r u y i n thdng eiia A.Lewis.

Trong t i l lieu: "Manual on labour market analysis and policy, Bangkok: ILO/EASMAT" (Phln tfch thj trudng lao ddng v i ehinh sach) ILO dua ra k h i i niem: "iao ddng dU thda cd nghTa l i v l m i t ky thuat ma ndi, cd qud nhieu lao ddng so vdi so edn thiet de sdn xuat ra cung mdt sdn luang nhu hiin tgi. H i m y d d i y la n l u ed lao dpng d u thQa nhQ vay, l i cd mdt t i l m nang du trd an dau:

so ngudl du thCfa cd the duae dua ra khdi hoat ddng hien tgi md khdng dnh hudng gi din kit qud sdn xudt vd dua ho vdo Idm viic cho ede loai du dn phdt triin khde nhau'

Nhu vay, cd the n h i n thay p h l n Idn c i c n h i kinh te t r i n t h i gidi d i u dua ra quan n i ^ m v l lao ddng d u thda trong ndng nghiep khdng k h i c n h i l u vdi lao ddng d u thtfa trong khu vyc t r u y i n thdng eua A.Lewis va lao ddng d u t h d a cua ILO.

Tuy kha thdng n h i t vdi nhau v l k h i i niem lao ddng dU thifa trong ndng n g h i i p , nhung khi d l x u l t v l phUdng p h i p tfnh thi hp lai dua ra k h i n h i l u phUdng p h i p do iQdng k h i c nhau, nhd: Phuong p h i p kinh nghiem (experience method);

Phuong p h i p Qdc tfnh (estimation method); PhQong p h i p djnh mQc lao ddng (labour norm method) dupc sif dung de tfnh lao dpng dU thira t r o n g ndng nghiep d Trung Qude v i o nhCfng nam 90 cua the k^

XX (theo Fung KWAN - 2008).

N g o i i ra cdn n h i l u phuong p h i p k h i c dupc c^c n h i kinh t l dua ra nhu; Phuong phap cd d i l n (dasscal

40 S U i K I E N 4 / 2 0 1 2

NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO D 6 I method); Phuong p h i p so sinh c l u

tructheo chuan quoc te (International standard structure comparison method; Phuong p h i p ty Id dat gieo trdng/lao dpng (Sown land to labour ratio method); Phuong p h i p ty le d i t ndng nghiep/lao ddng {Arable land to labour ratio method);...

De giup cho viec nghien cQu va tim ra phuong p h i p tinh sd lao ddng d u thda trong ndng nghiep, CO mdt sd each tfnh theo k h u y i n nghj ciia ILO: "Cach t i l p can t h d n g thudng de do tudng lao dpng dU thQa, trong trudng hpp cua n g i n h ndng nghiep, ndi chung n h u sau:

LUdng dU thQa lao ddng ndng nghiep cd the chuyen di dupe (tinh b i n g gid-ngudi) duac x i c dinh l i sir chenh If ch gida lao ddng sdn cd (labour available) va lao ddng theo yeu edu cdn cd {labour required);

trong do lao ddng sdn cd dUpc tfnh b i n g tdng sd nhan khau ndng nghiep, trQ nhQng ngudi q u i g i i tioac q u i tre, ngUdi ndi trp, sinh vien hpc sinh, tii nhan,... n h i n vdi so ngay l i m viec ndng n g h i i p c i ngay (the number of full working days) trong t h d i gian dd (cho phep tinh ca ngay nghi cudi t u I n v i ngay nghi le), n h i n vdi so gid l i m vile trong mdt n g i y t h d n g t h u d n g ; va lao dpng theo yeu edu edn ed de tao ra mdt s i n lUpng ndng nghiep

nhat djnh duoc tinh b i n g c i c h i p dung cac he sd lao ddng so vdi sdn luang h o l e dien tich".

ILO n l u tiep: "Mdt c i c h tiep can k h i c (dua vao Mehra 1966), each n i y khdng d n dat cic tieu chuIn d i e b i l t , chi d n so s i n h v i l e sQ dung lao ddng ciia d c trang trai t h u l lao ddng cd t r i t i l n cdng v i viec sQ dyng lao dpng eiia cic trang trai khdng t h u l mUdn lao dpng.

M l u chdt eiia phuong p h i p l i vt^e dieu h i n h c i e trang trai t h u l lao ddng cd t r i tien cdng thi khdng the cd lao ddng gia dinh dU thQa ( n l u khdng thi hp khong d n t h u l them lao ddng). TQ cac trang trai t h u l lao ddng ed t r i t i l n edng khdng cd lao dpng duthQa:

Trong dd:

Lf - Tdng sd gid - ngUdi eiia lao ddng sQ dung/h^c-ta/nam tai eic trang trai gia dinh;

Lw - Tdng sd gid - ngUdi eiia lao dpng sd dung/h^c-ta/nam tai eic trang trai thue lao dpng; TQ cdng thdc (2) => Rf (sd lao ddng theo y^u d u d n cd tren 1 hie-ta tai cic trang trai gia dinh):

Rj=Nw- (3)

R. = N. (1) Trong dd: Rw - So lao ddng theo yeu c l u can cd t r i n 1 hec-ta tai eae trang trai ed t h u l mUdn lao ddng.

Nw - Sd lao ddng lam viec thUc te tai eae trang trai cd thue mUdn lao ddng.

G i i djnh, trang trai gia dinh sQ dung lao ddng ndng nghiep dat hieu qua nhU trang trai cd thue mudn lao ddng eung loai. NghTa t i :

Thay the Rf vao edng thdc (4) tinh ra sd lao dpng ndng nghiep dU thQa tren 1 ha ciia c i c trang trai gia dinh:

Sf = Nj-Rf = Nf- N^ .-^ (4) Trong dd: Sf - Sd lao ddng dU thQa tren 1 hec-ta tai cie trang trai gia dinh".

B i n g c i c h tinh nay thi sd lao ddng d u thQa d ndng thdn hien nay khdng chi gdm sd lao dpng t h I t nghiep theo cich tfnh Hin h i n h ma cdn ed them sd lao dpng d u thQa trong ndng n g h i i p theo c i c h tinh mdi neu tren. Ddi vdi Viet Nam vile tiep thu va van dung cic phuong phap tinh do nhU t h i nao de tinh dUoc sd lao dpng d u thQa trong ndng nghiep eho phii hpp vdi dieu kien thyc tien trong nude c i n dupe tiep tuc nghien cifu, thQ nghiem d dja phUdng./.

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