Ap dung phiFcng phap tiep can phan tich mang IIFOT xa hoi trong nghien CLFU vai tro trung tam cua ASEAN trong cac hap tac an
ninh - chinh trj khu vyc Dong A sau chien tranh lanh
Tom tat: Sau gdn 50 ndm hinh thdnh vd phdt triin, Hiip hdi cdc qudc gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN) trd thdnh mgl trong .sS edc chu di nghiin ciru thu vi eiia khdng it cita edc hoc gid quan he qude ti. ASEAN, mgl nhom cdc quoc gia vira vd nho. dd hinh ihdnh nen mot logi cdc eg chi hudng Idm vd khdng dinh vai trd trung Idm Irong cdc edu Iriic an ninh khu vuc dang hinh ihdnh.Mdc du vai tro ASEAN trong hgp ldc an ninh - chinh Iri Ddng A la cd thuc. song edc y kiin lgi khd khde nhau do xudt phdt lir edeh liep can va quan diim ly thuyit khdng gidng nhau. Cdc hoe ihuyet phd bien trong quan hi qudc le nhu CNHT. CNTD vd CNKT khong hodn loan ly gidi dugc khd ndng duy Iri hod binh. Sn dinh khu vuc cUng nhu vai Ird trung tdm cua Hiep hgi Vdi thirc le ndy, bdi viei cd gdng dp dung phuang phdp phdn lich mgng ludi xd hdi (Social Network Analysis) nhu mot cdch tiip can mdi bd sung cho viee ly gidi ve vai trd trung tdm cud ASEAN lir sau Chien tranh Lanh. Hy vong cdch liep cdn ndy co the ddng gdp them cho viec nghien cim chit de ndy
Tir khod: Vai Ird Irung idm ASEAN, phdn tich mang ludi xd hgi, hgp tdc an ninh - chinh Iri, Ddng A.
S
au gdn 50 nam hinh ihanh vd phdt tridn, Ddng A"'- Mac dii vai trd ASEAN trong cau vai tro eiia Hiep hdi cac qudc gia Ddng true an ninh khu vuc Ddng A la cdi gi e6 thirc, Nam A (ASEAN) la chii dc nghidn euu song cae y kien lai kha khdc nhau do xuat phat ciia khdng h eiia eac hpe gia quan he quoe Id. lir each tidp can vd quan didm ly thuydt khac Sau Chidn tranh Lanh, eiing vdi vide tang sd nhau. Ve ca bdn, eac cdng trinh nghidn cim ve lugng Ihanh vidn, ASEAN nhanh chdng hinh vai trd ciia ASEAN cd thd chia thanh ba nhdm thanh ndn mpt loat edc eo ehe hudng tdm va ddn nhu sau:lu tin khang dinh "vai tro trung lam trong eac eau true an ninh khu vuc dang hinh thanh tai
Nhdm thu nhdt la ede bai vidt ed quan diem danh gia thdp vai trd eiia ASEAN, da phan tir Khoa Quoc tc hoc, Dai hoc Khoa hoc \a hoi \ii Nhan ,
van Dai hoc Qu6c gia Ha Noi ' ' ASEAN (2010).
40 ~ " - — Nhung vin di KINH T t VA C H I N H TRj T H t GIOI S6 12(248) 2016
Le Lgna Ap dyng phuong ph^p tilp cgn phan tich mgng ludi xa hpi.
cac hpc gia eiia chu nghia hien thuc (CNHT).
Cy the, cae bai vidt nay cho rang ASEAN chi la mdt cdng cu can bdng hodc ldi keo cua nude ldn trong khu vuc hon la mpt chu the quan he qudc td ddc l$.p va cd khd nang ddng vai trd quan trpng.
Nhdm cac nghidn ciiu thu hai la nhiing ngudi tin rang ASEAN Id mdt md hinh thanh cdng^ va dang dan trd thanh ca sd cho trat ty khu vyc md rdng. Cdc hpc gid thudc nhdm nay thudng den tir tnrdng phdi Kidn tao (CNKT) hodc Ty do (CNTD)^. Tuy nhidn, sau cudc khung hoang kinh td 1997 ciing nhu nhthig liing tiing trong vide xac dinh ve bdn sdc cua ASEAN vdi sy bien ddi vai trd ciia Hiep hdi tir sau Chidn tranh Lanh, nhdm edc cdng trinh ndy gap nhidu khd khan trong vide ly gidi vd vi tri
A S E A M . |
Nhdm nghidn cuu thii ba ve vai trd eua ASEAN khdng hoan toan phii nhdn cung nhu khdng tuydt doi tin tudng vao vai trd cua ASEAN trong khu vuc. Cac nghien eiiu nay chap nhdn vai trd dang ke trong hgp tac khu vyc eua ASEAN. Tuy nhidn, hp cho rdng vai trd ndy khdng phai tao ra bdi ASEAN ma do bdi canh khu vuc, eu thd la eanh tranh quydn lyc cua cac nude ldn**. Vdi nhiing luan diem nhu vdy, eac nghidn ciiu nay thudng khdng trd ldi dugc edu hdi tai sao lai la ASEAN cd dugc vi tri trong cdu true an ninh khu vuc md khdng phdi bdt ky ca che nao khac dang tdn tai ddng thdi.
Nhu vay, cd the thay, ban ve vai trd vd vai trd tmng tdm cua ASEAN Id chu de khdng mdi nhung chua hdn da nga ngia. Cae hge thuydt phd bidn trong quan hd qudc te nhu CNHT, CNTD
-Severino, R.,2004.
^ Xem them cic nghien ciiu ciia: Khoo, N., 2004;
Acharya, A., 2005; Heller, D , 2005; Katsumata, H., 2006, Jurgen, H., 2009; Emmerson, D. K., 2005.
* Xem them cac nghiSn citu cua Hyung, K M., 2012;
Heng, P.K., 2012; Jones, L.,2010.
va CNKT khdng hoan toan ly gidi dugc kha nang duy tri hoa binh, 6n dinh khu vyc cting nhu vai trd trung tam ciia mot nhdm cae nude vOra vd nhd. Cdc qudc gia ASEAN dugc cho la khdng manh ve vat chit cung nhu edc gia tri tinh thin vdn dugc cho Id nhihig ca sd de tao nen vai trd.
Vdi thyc td ndy, bai vidt sau day cd gdng ap dung phuang phdp Phdn tich mang ludi xd hdi (Social Network Analysis) nhu mpt each tiep can mdi bd sung cho vide ly gidi ve vai trd trung tam ASEAN tir sau Chidn tranh Lanh. Hy vpng each tiep can ndy cd thd ddng gdp thdm phdn ndo cho viee nghidn ciiu ehii dd nay.
1. Cach ti^p cSn trcn co* sd phSn tich mang lu-di xa hoi (SNA)
J.J. Khdi qudt vi SNA vd khd ndng dp dftng SNA trong nghien c^u quan he quoc te
Phan tich mang ludi xa hdi (Social Network Analysis - SNA) la mdt tap hgp cdc phuang phdp chpn mdu, thu thap va xu ly dii' lieu, eac khai nidm, cae ly thuyet nham md td vd phan tieh mdi quan he giiia cac chii the trong mang ludi, cdc quy ludt hinh thdnh va bien chuydn ciia nhiing moi quan he do, vd nhat la Iam sang td nhiing anh hudng cua cae mdi quan he xa hdi (hay cdu triic ciia mang ludi) ddi vdi hdnh vi cua cdc ehii the^. Ddy la mdt phuang phdp dugc dp dung nhidu trong cdc nghien ciiru xa hdi hpc, dac bidt trong cdc nghidn ciiu vd truyen thdng.
Ddi vdi quan be qudc te, phuong phdp nghien eiiu vd cdch tidp can nay tren thye td da dugc dp dung vao nhirng ndm 1960, 1970 khi xem xet tdc dpng cua cdc mdi quan he mang tinh mang ludi trong cdc boat ddng thuang mai, giiia cdc thanh vidn trong cdc td chiic lidn chinh
li ThS Cu6rng (chu bien) (2009).
NhO'ng vin di KINH T £ VA CHINH TRj T H t G i a i So 12 (248) 2 0 1 6 -
-1.^'
Ap dung phuong phap ti§p can phan tich mgng ludi xa hpi.. LeLena
phu qudc td, eac quan he song phuang vd da phuong tdi he thdng qudc td .
Ly do CO ban dd cd thd dp dyng each tiep can nay vao trong nghien ciiu quan he qudc nam d cho cdc nguyen tdc nen mdng ciia phuong phap ndy pbil hgp vdi cac ddc didm ehung frong quan he qude td. Thu nhdt, cac chu the trong cdc mang ludi cd sy tuong tdc ldn nhau. Thir hai, cac mdi quan he giita cac chu the la cac kenh ddn ndi cho cac ngudn lue (vat chat hodc phi vdt chdt). Didu nay hoan toan phu hpp vdi cae mdi quan he qude td. Thir ba, mang ludi, tuy tbudc vao nhan thiic ciia timg chu thd, cd thd tao c a hdi nhung cung cd the kidm che mdt ehii thd.
Thti tu, khai nidm mang ludi d ddy ed the duge dp dyng ddi vdi quan he cua nhidu ehii the trdn nbieu linh vuc khac nbau. Khong khde vdi dac diem eua quan he qudc te, giGa eae chu the qudc gia va phi qudc gia tdn tai nhidu mdi lien he d cdc dang khac nhau nhu ddng minh, hgp tdc, chien tranh hay trong cac linh vyc khdc nhau nhu kinh Id, chinh tri, an ninh... Cudi ciing, vide ap dung eae ly thuydt tir xd hdi hpe Id vide bet sue binh thudng bdi quan he qudc td nam trong xa hdi qude td, bdi thyc td nhidu ly thuyet quan he qude le da duoc dua vao ITnh vuc ndy vdi sy hiru ich ldn nhu CNKT, Ly Ihuyel Phe phan. ehu ngbia Vi nir... Cae ly do nay dii de giai thich cho vide dp dung SNA vao trong nghien cim vd ASEAN trong bdi canh la mang ludi eac lidn kdl an ninh - chinh Iri khu vuc Ddng A do ASEAN thidt lap tir Sau Chidn tranh Lanh. Cac ca ehd duge noi tdi d ddy la Dien dan An ninh khu Norc (ARF), Cdp cao Dong A (EAS), ASEAN^3. Hpi nghi Bp tmdng qudc phdng md rdng (ADMM+) va Didn dan An mnh bien md rpng (AMF+).
_ So sanh vdi ba ly thuydt quan he qudc Id da de cap tdi d phan dau ciia bai vidt. SNA khac xa
" Ernilie. H B & Alexander, M (2009)
vdi CNHT, gan ban vdi CNTD va chia se nhidu vdi CNKT khi ly thuydt nay dd eao sy tuang tac va dnh hudng cua cac mdi quan he ddi vdi dac didm va cdch hdnh xii ciia cdc qudc gia. Tuy nhidn, khdc vdi CNTD va CNKT, ddi tugng xem xet chinh eua SNA la cau hinh cua toan bo mang ludi (structural embeddness) va dae diem ciia cac moi quan he trong mang ludi (relational embeddness) chii khdng chi don thudn dudi gdc dp la chu the. Diem khac biet niia d SNA so vdi cae each tidp can trdn do ia SNA ed ridng cdc luan gidi va each thiie xac dinh ddi vdi "vi tri trung tdm" (centrality) ciia mpt chil thd trong mpt mang ludi.
J.2. Ly thuyet Phdn tieh mgng ludi xii lipi vd "vai tro trung tdm"
Ban vd "vai trd trung tam" trong SNA, Alex Bavelas Id ngudi ddu tidn gidi thieu vd khai nidm vai trd 'trung tdm' va dnh hudng ciia vai trd nay tdi mdt nhdm vao nam 1940. Nghien eiiu ddng chii y tidp theo Id cua Linton Freeman vdi tae pham "Centrality in Social Networks"
(1979) (Vj tri trung tam trong cae mang ludi xa hpi). Cdng trinh ndy ed gia tri rdt ldn ddi vdi chuyen nganh Quan he quoc Id bdi hpc gia nay di lir vide xem xet bidn 'trung tdm' dan thuSn dp dyng trong nghien ciru truydn thdng cua Bavelas va cpng sy vao trong mdi Irudng la mang ludi qudc id. Freeman c6 gdng giai thfcli each Ihuc mpt mang ludi quoc td boat dpng ra sao, anh hudng ciia mang ludi ddi vdi he Ihong qude Id nhu the nao. Su dyng SNA, "vai tro trung tdm" duge md td la "quydn luc mang tinh xa hpi cua mdt ehu thd"^ duge hinh thanh tir mirc dp lien kcl, dp rdng cua lidn kdt ddi vdi todn bp thanh vidn trong mang ludi. Vd coban, nhu nhan dinh ciia Anne Marie Slaughter (2009) khi ndi vc mpi mang ludi ''chinh kha ndng ki! nui. han td liin bgc hodc ldc do phai
Thucmg duoc vi la mot niit that [trong mot mang luoij
- Nhdng vin de KINH Jt VA CHJNH TRI THE GIO'l So 12(248) 2016
Le Lena Ap dgng phuong ph^p tidp can phan tich mang ludi xa hgi..
trien. Id yiu td quyit djnh tdi quyin lue vd quyen luc se ddn ddn dugc xdc dinh dudi hinh thuc la cdc mdi lien he" ^
Cdc nha nghien ciiu su dung phuang phap tidp can SNA ly giai co sd hinb thdnh quydn lyc xa hdi ndy dya tren iru thd tidp can nhanh chdng tdi ngudn thdng tin vd ngudn lyc ciia cdc thanh vidn trong mang ludi eiia chu thd trung tdm.
Bdn canh vide tidp can nhanh chdng, vi tri trung tdm cdn giup cdc chu thd nay truyen thdng tin nhanh chdng ldi cac thanh vien cua mang ludi.^
Tir dd, quyen lye nay giup chii thd trung tam thiet lap chuong trinh nghi su, khung ddm phan, xdy dyng va phd bidn nhimg chinh sdch cd lgi cho chil thd ddng vai trd trung tdm . Ngodi ra quyen luc ndy se cdng gia tdng khi chii thd ddng vai trd trung tdm cd ed kha nang kdt ndi vdi cac thanh vidn ma cae chii thd khdc khd tiep can hon bdi CO lien kel yeu (weak lies)"
Cho tdi nay, cd mdt sd each do ludng tinb trung tdm eua mpt chu the Tuy nhidn, each thiic tinh todn dya trdn ba he sd do eua Freeman (1976) la each tinh thudng xuydn duge eae nha nghien eiiu su dung. Ba chi sd nay do la: i) he sd trung tam true lidp (degree); ii) be sd trung lam ldn can (closeness) va iii) he sd trung tdm trung gian (betH'eenes.'i). Trong do, eae he sd duac xde dinh nhu sau:
" Marie, A. S (2009)
^Knoke, D. (1990)
"* Hafher-Burton, E M., Kahler, M, & Montgomery, A.
H., 2009
" Trong mot mang luoi, cac Iicn ket yeu (weak tics) khong phai la khong c6 gia tri. Cac hen kcl nay giup bo sung vao cho trong cua mang liroi (structural holes) hoac giup ket noi cac nhom lai voi nhau. Co nh&ng tmong hap mang liroi ton tai duoc do su kcl noi cua cac lien ket yeu
'^ Stephen Borgatti va Martin Everett (2006) dua ra each do luong tinh trung tam ciia mot chii Ihc dua trcn cac he so ve tinh tu chil (autonomy), kiem soat (control), ticp xiic (exposure), anh huong (influence), thuoc so hiru (belongingness), Irung gian (brokerage), doc lap (independence), va quyen luc (power). (Haftier-Burlon, E M . , Kahler, M & Monlgomcry, A 11.2009).
+ He sd trung tam true tidp (degree): He so trung tam Uyc tidp nay giup do ludng dugc s6 lugng ciia cdc mdi quan be tryc tiep eua mdt ehu thd nao dd vdi cac thdnh vidn trong mang ludi. Chii thd nao cdng cd he sd trung tam true tidp cao thi chii thd do dugc gpi la "tdm diem"
(hub) cua mang ludi. He sd ndy thd hien uu the cua chil thd trong mang ludi. Lfu thd nay dugc dinh nghTa la chu thd cd nhidu "lua chgn" trong cdc mdi quan he, gidm su phu thupc, cd kha nang tdc dpng ddn chu thd khae, cd thdm nhieu CO hdi khai thdc duge "ngudn lyc" trong mang ludi vd cd khd ndng la "ke phan xii" khi cac chu the khac mdu thudn
+ He sd trung tdm Ian can (closeness): He sd Irung tam ldn can the hien tinh gan giii ciia ehii thd vdi cdc thanh vidn khac trong mang ludi.
Cdng gdn gui vdi thanh vien khae bao nhidu ehu thd nay cdng de dang trong vide lidp can cac ngudn thdng tin ciing nhu truydn tai thdng tin cua minh can tdi ddi tugng thanh vidn tidp nhan. Ddng thdi, he so nay eung phdn anh khd nang ldi keo ehu the khac vao eae cdng vide ehung eiia mang ludi co lgi eho minh. He sd nay eiing phdn dnh kha nang lac ddng ciia chu Ihd tdi cac thanh vidn khde nhung ydu bon so vdi he sd trung tdm true tidp.
+ He sd trung tam Irung gian (behveeness):
He sd trung lam trung gian la miic dp trong dd chil the nam d vi tri giua cac thanh vidn khde trong mang ludi. He sd nay do dugc bang each tinh mdi quan he eua cae Ihanb vidn lang gicng cua chii Ihd thdng qua chu the. Chu thd cang dong vai trd 'cau ndi' (bridge) vdi nhidu thanh vicn ihi chi so nay cang eao. Chi sd nay cdng cao, ede thanh vidn eang buoc phai tinh ddn vai trd eua chii thd khdng ehi irong quan he vdi ehinh chii thd md con trong quan he vdi cae ihanh vidn khac trong mang ludi.
" Hafner-Bunon, E M., Kahler, M. & Monlgomcry A, 11., 2009, tr. 568; Bui Th4 Cutmg 2010, tr. 142.
NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRI T H £ G\0\ S 6 12 (248) 2 0 1 6 -
Ap dung phuong phap tidp can ph^n tich mang ludi xa hdi... L6 Lena Bdng 1: Bang t6ng hyp each do Imrng he s& trung tan. cua m6t chii thi
He so trung tam
(HSTT) HSTThorc tidp (Degree)
HSTT lan can (Closeness
)
No! dung
Do ludng cac mdi quan he tryc tiep ciia mdt chii the nao dd vdi cdc thdnh vidn trong mang ludi
Do ludng tinh gan giii cua chu the vdi edc thanh vien khac Irong mang ludi
Cong thiic
Q = « - l
k: tdng sd eac quan he true tidp ciia chu thd n: tdng sd chii thd trong mang tudi
- I ' i:d(x,y) n: Idng sd chii thd trong mang ludi
S d(x,y): tdng sd ''budc"
ciia doan dudng ngan nhdt md chu thd phdi di de ddn vdi mpi chil Ihd trong mang ludi
Mo hinh
HSTT trung gian (Beiweene ss)
Do ludng miie dp trong do chil the nam d vj tri giira ede thanh vien khdc trong mang ludi
n(j,z;x)
Nguon: Freeman. L. C (1978) vd Bui Thi Cudng (2010) Nhu vay, khai niem vi tri trung tam theo each tiep can eiia SNA co the hoan loan ap dung de hieu ve vai trd trung tam ciia ASEAN trong eac hgp lac an ninh ehinh tri cua khu vuc Ddng A. Cae eo che bap tae dupe xet ldi d day la ARF, ASHAN+1, ASF.AN+3, EAS, ADMM+, AMF+. Cac ca chd nay hinh thanh nen mpt mang ludi dan xen va phii rdng khdp khu vye (xetn LTinh I) SWA dc dang eho ihdy
ASEAN ddy dii didu kidn la mdt "Irung lam"
Irong cac co chd hgp tdc nay. ASEAN vira la trung tam trung gian, vira la trung lam true tiep va lan can. l i y ASEAN+3 la mdt vi du.
ASEAN khdng nhirng xay dyng nen dien dan dd cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A gap gd eae qudc gia Ddng Bdc A. Thdng qua eac didn dan cua ASEAN, Nhal Ban, Han Qudc va Trung Qudc ciing cd cdc cupc gap cap cao bdn le. Nhu vay, - NhO'ng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TR! THE GIO'l So 12(248) 2016
Le Lena Ap dgng phygng phap ti^p can phan tich mgng Imi'l xa hpi...
xet toi cac hop tic chinh tri ciia ASEAN+3, so lai=0,33), tuong tur vcri he sd trung tam lan can voi ba qudc gia Dong BSc A la Trung Quoc, ASEAN cung vuot tr6i hon (ASEAN=1; cac Nhat Ban va Han Qu6c, nu6c con lai: 0,6). Dac bift, khi xet he s6 trung AccAxi • L- i _ .- _ .:.s 1- tam trung eian ASEAN=1; trong khi cac nuac ASEAN CO he so trung tam true tiep la cao , . •* •* '^
hon cac nuoc con lai (ASEAN=1; cac nu6c c6n ' ^ '*' ""•
Hinh I: Vai tro trung tam cua ASEAN trong c i e eo ehi hop tac an ninh khu vuc D6ng A
ARF ( A S E A N R e g i o n a l
EAS ( E a s t A s i a S u m m i t )
Bangladesh NewZeatand
Paidstan Australia APT [ASEAN Plus Tiiree) Sri Lanka*
Ngodi ra, nhu dd dd cap d trdn, theo ly thuyet SNA, chu thd cua mpt mang ludi se cd quyen luc xa hpi cao ban ndu cd dugc nhiing mdi lidn he dae bidt vdi cac trudng hgp khd tiep can cua mang ludi'**. Vi du vd vai trd cua Trung Qudc trong Nghien cihi cua Hafner-Burton, E. M., Kahler, M. & Montgomery, A. H. (2009) ed didm tuong ddng vdi vai trd ciia ASEAN trong vide gidi quydt vdn dd khimg hodng trdn bdn dao Trieu Tidn. Vai trd ndy dugc ly giai nhu sau: hidn nay dd bdn vd van dd khiing hoang trdn bdn dao Trieu Tidn, ngoai Dam phdn Sdu bdn, CO che edn lai Id ARF. Didn dan nay dii khong thyc sy dua ra gidi phap cho vdn de Bdc Trieu Tien nhung la kdnh dam phan, trao ddi '* Hafner-Burton, E. M., Kahler, M. & Montgomery, A . H. 2009, pp.568.
thdng tin chinh thdc cua Bdc Trieu Tien vdi cdc qudc gia trong khu vyc. Trong bdi cdnh mdi quan he Bdc Trieu Tien vd Tnmg Qudc khdng cdn khdng kbit, Bdc Trieu Tidn cd xu hudng ehu y nhieu hon tdi Dong Nam A, thi vai trd nay cua ASEAN cang dugc khdng dinh.
Nhu vdy, SNA ngodi vide khdng dinh vai trd trung tdm ciia ASEAN, edn gop phdn lam sang td CO sd cho sy thd hidn vai trd trung tam cua ASEAN ciing nhu ly do ASEAN cd dugc vi tri nay trong cdc hgp tdc an ninh - chinh tri khu vyc. Thay bdng lgi thd vd quan su, kinh td hay cdc gid tri tinh thdn, vdi khd nang kdt ndi, ASEAN cd dugc siie manh xa hpi dya tren vide hinh thdnh ndn cac e a chd hudng tam, dan xen vd ddn trd thanh trung tdm cua mang ludi.
Chidn luge nay ciia ASEAN cd thd dugc lam rd
NhO'ng vin di KINH T t VA CHJNH TRj TH^ Giai S6 12 (248) 2016-
Ap dgng phuong phap tidp can phan tich mgng ludi xa hdi.. Le Lena bdi nhan dinh eua Hafner-Burton, E. M.,
Kahler, M. & Montgomery, A. H. (2009)'*
"Cdc qudc gia chdm phdt trien han hodc sue mgnh qudn su yeu han eo thi bit dap su thiiu hut vi sifc mgnh vdt chdt cua minh thong qua viee lich luy sue mgnh xd hoV
Tuy nhidn, phdn tich nhu vay, khdng co nghTa hodn toan phu nhan cac yeu td khae gdp phdn tao didu kidn cho ASEAN cd thd tan dung khd nang kdt ndi do Id boi canh khu vyc. Tdc gid ddng y vdi ludn didm cua hpc gid Chin Kin Wah (2007) vd Pek Koon Heng (2014) dd la vai trd cua ASEAN dugc tao nen bdi mae dinh (by default) va bdi nd lye cua ASEAN (by design).
Dieu nay cd nghTa Id neu ehi cho rdng ASEAN CO dugc vai trd trung tdm nhd vdo ydu td khaeh quan nhu canh tranh cua ede nude ldn, nghi kj vd xung dot giiJa cdc nude trong khu vyc do cae ly do lich sir nhu nhidu hpc gia phdn tich thi ehua du. Neu nhu vdy, khdng phai ASEAN md bat ky co ehe hay qudc gia nao cimg thdi didm hinh thdnh vdi ASEAN ciing cd thd ddng vai trd nay. Hot ddng chdu A - Thai Binh Duong (ASPAC), mpt ea che duge hinh thanh ciing giai doan 1966 - 1967 vdi ASEAN la mpt minh chimg eu thd. ASPAC duge hinh thanh vdi eac thdnh vidn bao gom Australia, Nhdt Ban, Malaysia, Dai Loan, New Zealand, Philippines, Han Qude, Viet Nam Cdng hda va Thdi Lan.
ASPAC va ASEAN ddu duge md td la "mdi trong sd nhimg thue Id mdi cua chau A" vd la md hinh ''ddm bdo khd ndng dnh hudng cita cdc nude chdu A nho ddi vdi cdu true chinh iri tuang lgi ciia khu virc'^'^ ASPAC bao gdm nhieu cae qudc gia cd quydn luc ldn ban ASEAN ra ddi ciing mpt thdi didm vdi
" Hafner-liurton, . ,v,, Kahler, M. & Motiti-omcrv /i H. 2009,tr.574 ^ •*' '
" Nguyen van ti^ng Anh: -Poorer and military Ic^s powerful stales might offset their material disadyaniages
^^ihrough the accumulation oj social power"
Din loi t6ng ihflng My Richard Nixon trong Acharya A (2009) •' '
ASEAN. Tuy vdy, ASPAC da nhanh chdng thit bai vd thdm chi gdn nhu bi quen lang. Do do, n6 lyc cua ban than ASEAN la mdt yeu td vd ciing quan trpng.
2. Dac diem ciia vai tro t r u n g tam cua ASEAN dirdi goc nhin cua Ly thuyet mang lirdi xa hoi
Dua trdn cdch tidp can SNA, cd thd nhan thdy khdi nidm vai trd trung tam cua ASEAN bao gdm eae dae diem sau:
2. J. Vai tro trung tdm cua ASEAN the hien dgc diem mang tinh cdu true
Vai trd ndy xdc dinh vi tri eua td chiic trong md hinh cac c a chd hgp tde hudng tdm. Cac sdng kidn hgp ldc khu vyc dugc ASEAN xay dyng va xoay quanh ASEAN. ASEAN ghi dSu an cua minh vdo trong edc co che thdng qua vide dp dyng eae nguydn tae eo bdn dam chit Phuang thiie ASEAN. Trir EAS, trong tdn gpi ciia cdc td chuc, cho dii sd lugng thanh vien la bao nhidu, ban vd cdc van dd gi thudng se bat ddu bang ten ciia Hiep hdi nhu ARF, ASEAN+3, ADMM+,... Theo hpc gid Kavi Chongkittavom, nghien cim vien cao edp tai Vidn nghien eiiu An ninh vd Quan he qudc \k (Dai hpc Chulalongkorn), ddi vdi ASEAN, c5u true an ninh khu vuc ndy cd trung lam o ASEAN vd lan rpng ra vdi cac dang thiic deu b d t d d u b d i A S E A N ' ^
2.2. Vai tro trung tdm eda ASEAN thi hien dgc diem chuc ndng
Cung xudt phdt lir phdn tich cua SNA, cac chil the nam d vi Iri trung ldm ed quydn luc ve Phat bieu tai Hoi thao va Ciw triic an ninh khu vuc Chau A to chiic boi quy Chau A taj Washington, D.C vao nam 2014. Cac co chh nay co ten li6ng Anh bao gom (ASEAN+I, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (du co toi 17 quoc gia khong nam trong nhom ASEAN), va ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meetings Plus. Xem them tai http://\vww.asiafoundation.org/video/asian-regional- architecture-steps-towards-ascan-integration/, ngay Wj cap 06/06/20 i 6,
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Le Lena Ap dung phuang phap ti§p can phan tich mang ludi xa hdi...
xa bdi eao ed khd nang thidt lap chuong trinh nghi sy, khung ddm phan, xdy dyng va phd bien nhftng chinh saeh ed lgi cho chu the ddng vai trd trung tdm. ASEAN khdng phdi trudng hgp ngoai le. Cyu tdng thu k>' ASEAN, dng Surin Pitsuwan, trong mpt bai phat bieu cua minh da khdng dinh mong mudn cua ASEAN trong vide trd thanh mdt trung tdm di vao thye chdt (centrality of substaneef^. Dii cdn nhidu tranh cai vdy vai trd trung tam mang tinh thue chdt eiia ASEAN la gi nhung khdng the phu nhdn trong tat ea eae ca che hgp tac an ninh - chtnh tn khu vye, ASEAN ddu duge ghi nhdn vdi vai trd hinh thdnh ndn cdc e a ehe ddi thoai vd hgp tdc d khu vyc; thiic day hgp tac vd lien ket khu vye d Ddng A, cu the la lien kdt edc nude trong ngi bd ASEAN, hgp tac vd kdt ndi Ddng A thdng qua ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3, EAS, ADMM+, AMF+; quydl dinh vd thdnh vidn cua edc CO che ndy, td ehiie vd ldn ehuang trinh, ndi dung cho edc ehuang trinh nghi su, didu phdi eae chuong trinh hop tdc, xdy dyng cac bp quy tae ling xir va quy pham nhdm gdp phdn djnh hinh phuong each iing xir ciia eac qudc gia trong khu vyc. Ngoai ra, ASEAN con tao the
"tap the" trong quan he vdi edc ddi lae bdn ngoai va mdt "tbdi quen" hgp tdc trong vide gidi quydt cac van dd trong khu vyc.
2.3. Vai tro trung tdm eua ASEAN the hien tinh trung lap cua to chuc
Tinh trung lap ciia ASEAN bao gdm trung lap ddi vdi cae thanh vidn ndi khdi va trung lap ddi vdi cdc ddi lac ngoai khdi. Doi vdi ede thdnh vidn Irong khdi, ngay tir ngay Ihanh lap ldi nay, hai nguydn lae co ban ciia ASEAN dugc giir virng dd la: i) nguyen lac ddng thuan va ii) nguydn tac khdng can thiep vao cdng vice ndi bd. Hai nguyen lac nay bao dam sy binh dang trong vide dua ra quyel dinh ciia ASEAN va trdnh bat ky nguy ea nucVe ldn trong nhom ap ehd cac nude nhd ban. Tinh trung lap ciia ASEAN cdn thd hien trong phuang each giai quydt xung dot ciia id chirc. ASEAN ehii trpng
tdi ddi thoai vd ngoai giao phdng ngira ban la bidn Hiep hdi thanh trpng tdi phan xii. Trong trudng hgp xdu nhdt cdc xung dot xdy ra (nhu ddi vdi tranh chdp giGa Thdi Lan vd Campuchia xung quanh ngdi ddn Preah Vihear), ASEAN se thyc hien "dich vy ngoai giao" cua tninh. Dd la tu vdn, tao kenh gap gd va trao ddi giiia cac bdn, va cir quan sat vidn tdi giam sdt vide rut quan. Ddi vdi cdc ddi tde bdn ngoai, vi tri trung tdm nay thd hien vide ASEAN khdng ehpn theo bdt ky doi tde nao. ASEAN khdng phu thinh hoac lidn kdt vdi mdt ddi tdc ngodi khu vyc nhdm dd tao thd can bdng, ddi phd vdi cdc qude gia khac. Theo cdch tidp can SNA, dd duy iri vi tri trung tdm cua minh ASEAN cdn duy tri duge khd nang ket ndi. Ddi vdi mgt sd trudng hgp, vide duy tri tinb trung lap se tao nidm tin va duy tri sy kdt ndi nay. Lay vi du trong cdc xung dot bidn Ddng, cho dii ASEAN khdng bi chia re bdn trong npi bd tbi Hiep hdi eiing se khdng len dn Trung Qude gay gat. Bdi ndu ldm vay, ASEAN se cd kha nang duy tri mdi quan he dua trdn su tin tudng md ban dau ASEAN tao ra nham ldi keo Trung Qudc vao cdc ca chd ciia minh. Theo tde gid, thay bang dp bude cdc ddi lae phai dua ra cac lua chpn theo y ciia ASEAN, cac mang ludi chdng cheo cua ASEAN sc dan khidn cae ehii ihd Irong mang ludi ed nhidu mdi lidn he dan xen. Cat dirt, bode khdng Iham gia mang ludi sc khdng ehi chan nhihig lgi leh cd duge giO'a chii the va ehii the trung tam ma cdn ca trong quan he vdi cae chii thd khde trong mang ludi. Vdi each phan tich tir gdc dp SNA vc cdc lua ehpn thoat khdi mang ludi (exit oplion.s) vd kha nang Ihuong lugng (bargaining power) ", ed the nhan ra vai Ird trung tdm giiip ASEAN nang eao khd nang dam phan vdi cac doi tac va do do vide giai quydt xung dot vdi ASEAN la mdt lien tnnh lau dai.
" Pitsuwan S (2008)
'"Theo ly thuyet SNA, neu mot chu thd co Iicn kcl voi moi mang liroi ma cang nhieu cac m6i n6i thi quy^n lire ciia chu the do sc gia lang va kha nang chu thd do riit lui khoi maiig liroi sc giam, Ly ihuydt nay co sy tirong d6ng phSn nao vdi khai niem 'phu thuoc lin nhau' ma cac nha ly luan cua CN TD hay dd cap ttVi.
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Ap dung phuang phap tidp can phan tich mang ludi xa hdi.. Le Lena
2.4. Vai tro cda ASEAN the hiin muc do trung tam kit ndi ben trong Hiep hgi
Mpt vai nghidn ciiu vd ASEAN hoac vd vai trd trung tam eiia ASEAN thudng chi cho rdng vai trd trung tam cua Hiep hdi nhdm the hidn vi tri ciia ASEAN vdi cac ddi tac ben ngoai khu vyc. Tuy nhien, de duy tri duge vai trd trung tdm eua minb ddi vdi cae ddi tae trong khu vuc, bdn thdn ASEAN can cd su thdng nhat npi khdi.
Vai trd tnmg tam d day vira la mue tieu nhung ddng thdi ciing la edng thiie dd ASEAN dat dugc myc tidu trung tam d tren. Tuydn bd Chu tich ASEAN lan thir 16 (2010) thd hidn ro rang didu nay " Chung ldi nhdn mgnh ve Idm quan trong vd y chi duy tri vai trd trung tdm cua ASEAN... Chung tdi nhdt tri dp dung cdch tiep can hai kiing vdi uu tien ddi vdi viec thitc ddy hdi nhdp ndi khdi vd xdy dung cong ddng ASEAN Irong khi vdn ldm sdu sdc them cdc mdi quan hi vdi cdc ddi ldc ben ngodi". ^'
Hpe gia Weatherbee (2014) khdng phai khdng CO ly khi chi trieh rdng 'ASEAN sao eo thd trd thanh trung tam khi ban than ASEAN khdng CO trung tam?'. Qua thuc, ndu ASEAN khdng cd trung tam hoac c6 qua nhieu Irung lam, Hiep hpi se khdng the cd dugc su phoi hgp chat che Ihdng nhdt trong eac boat ddng. Hdi nhap sau vd gdn kdl chat che giifa eac quoc gia ehinh la phuang each dd giiip ASEAN duy tri dupe tinh trung tam trong ndi khdi eiia l6 chiie nay. Nd luc xay dyng Cpng ddng ASEAN ham chiia trong no vide duy tri dae didm trung tam nay cua Hiep hpi.
3. Han che trong vice ap dung SNA trong viec tim hieu vd vai trd trung tam cua ASEAN trong cac hyp tac an ninh khu vuc
^ Khdng phu nhan dupe rkng SNA da cung cap mot each tidp can bd sung kha ihuydl phuc giup hidu ro vd vai tro Irung tam cua ASEAN.
Tuy nhien, eung cdn phai luu y ring caeh lidp can nay cung co mot s6 didm han chd neu mudn -'ASEAN, (2010)
dp dung trong nghidn cuu quan he qudc td ndi ehung va trong trudng hgp ddi vdi vai tro trung tdm ciia ASEAN ndi rieng.
i) SNA gdp phan giiip ly gidi vd vai tro trung tdm ciia mpt chu the trong mpt mang ludi nhung SNA khdng khang dinh trung tam dd la duy nhdt trong mpt mang ludi. Mpt trong sd each do ludng ve tinh trung lam hay dugc ap dung da dd cap d. trdn thd hidn rang mpt mang ludi kha ndng ed hon mpi trung tdm ben trong nd. Co the Id trung tdm true tidp, trung tam trung gian va trung tam lan can. Mdt ehu the co thd ciing mpt liic ddng vai trd cila ed ba trung tam (nhu trudng hgp ciia ASEAN hidn nay) nhung ciing ed thd chi ddng vai tro ciia mpt trong ba trung tam. Liic nay edu hdi dat ra la ndu ciing mgt liic xudt hidn ba trung tam trong mgl mang ludi, chuydn gi se xdy ra? Ba tmng ldm nay se thyc hien cdc boat ddng chiie nang ciia minh nhu the ndo? Lieu md hinh vd "lanh dao san sd" (sharing leadership) thudng dupe eac nhd nghidn cim xa hdi hpc sir dung c6 dugc dp dung trong trudng hgp ndy? Va ndu ap dung, didu kidn ndo de cd thd ap dung.
ii) SNA vdi vide do kdt ndi ciia cac chu thd thdng qua ede budc di ldi cdc niii thdt khidn eho vide nghien ciiu ve eac mdi quan he trong ndn chinh Iri qudc td trd nen ro rang. Ly thuydt ciia SNA khdng phu nhan su da dang trong cac mdi quan he eua ndn chinh tri qude te. SNA ciing tinh loan ldi tinh chdt cua cdc mdi quan he la ydu (weak ties) vd manh (strong ties). Nhung dac didm "manh" va "ydu" ma SNA de cap chi phan anb muc dp luong tac giifa eae chii thd la nbieu bay it, gdn hay khdng gdn ma khdng Ihd hidn duge het ban chat cua eac mdi quan he dd.
Vdi SNA, mdi quan he giu'a My vdi Tmng Qudc va My vdi Philippines ddu thd bidn dudi cimg mpt hinh thiic. Chinh vide dan gian hoa eac mdi quan he va tinh loan vi tri trung tam thong qua viec lugng hod eac mdi quan he khidn SNA co thd bo sdt phdn ndo dac didm ciia moi quan he giifa cac chii thd va khd long theo
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Le Lena Ap dung phuang phap tidp cgn phan tteh mang ludi xd hpi..-
khdc n
ddi dugc su bidn chuydn ciia cdc mdi lidn kdt qua thdi gian.
iii) SNA dugc dp dung tdt nhdt trong cdc mang ludi khdng qua phiic tap vd thudng dugc tach biet. Ddi vdi nghien ciiu ve vai trd trung tam ciia ASEAN, tdc gia chgn lya pham vi trong khu vyc Ddng A vdi mpt vdi edc ca chd hgp tae an ninh chinh tri cd dae diem khdng qua phiic tap khi xem xet. Tinh chdt khdng qud phiic tap nay do hau het cdc qudc gia Ddng Nam A ciing tham gia vao cdc co chd hgp tdc an ninh chinh tri gidng nhau vd cdc qudc gia Ddng Bac A khdng cd lien ket vd an ninh chinh tri nao do nhieu bdt ddng tir yeu t6 lich su. Tuy nhien, ndu trudng hgp trong pham vi Ddng A xuat hien them nhieu cdc co chd hgp tdc an ninh chinb tri, kinh t^ vd xudt phat tir ede chu thd nhau trong khu vyc, liic nay vide tinh toan se trd ndn phiic tap vd khd phan tdch hon bdi khu vyc Ddng A sd xuat hien nhieu mang ludi hon so vdi thdi didm hien tai.
iv) Ngoai ra, SNA cho phep nhd nghidn ciiu hidu dugc kha nang ASEAN tridn khai cdc boat ddng vd chiie nang ttr lgi the trung tdm eua td chiic nhung SNA khdng giiip cdc hpc gid hieu sdu sdc ban vd hidu qua eiia eae boat dpng chiic tidng ndy. Tuong tu SNA ed nhCfng luan diem the hidn tac dpng ciia mdt mang ludi len each hanh xur ciia mgt chii the trong mdt mang ludi nhimg SNA khdng cung edp cho ngudi nghien ciiu them bdt ky cdng cy ndo dd do ve tdc dpng ndy. Ben eanh dd, bdi dua tren ddc didm Id quydn luc xa hpi (mdt thudc tinh chu yeu ed lien quan tdi sy thay ddi, khd ndng thuydt phuc, uy tin, cdng luan...) nen cac nghien ciru sir dung SNA dii rat ro rdng vdi cdc cdng tbire tinh va xac dinh ban dau, nhxmg khi di sdu vdo xem xet hieu qua lai cang khd dat duge. Cd the ndi, SNA cd the dugc dp dung d giai doan ddu khi nghidn ciiu vd vai trd eua ASEAN va cdc didu kien cdn de ASEAN duy tri chd diing trong cdc hgp tdc an ninh - chinh tri khu vyc. Nhung mudn xem xet sdu hon niia hidu qud ciia cdc
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boat dpng chiic nang ciia ASEAN va cdc dieu kidn dii dd ASEAN tidp tue duy hri vai trd trung tdm cua Hidp hdi trong khu vyc, ngudi nghien euu chdc chdn phdi diing them eac ly thuydt vd edng cu nghidn ciru bd trg khac.
Didu thii vi trong ngbien ciiu quan be qudc te dd Id viec ed nhidu each tiep can vdi eac lang kinh khdc nhau dd nghien ciiu vd eiing mdt chii thd, mpt sy kien quan hd quoe td. Trudng hgp xem xet vd vai trd trung tdm cua Hiep hpi eac qudc gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN) ciing khdng ngoai Id. Tir khi dugc thdnh ldp vdo nam 1967, ASEAN trd thanh mdt trudng hgp nghien eiiu dang quan tdm vd thdm chi dugc coi la thdch thiie ddi vdi eae ly thuyet quan he qudc te phd bien. Dae diem "thdch tbiie" cua ASEAN khdng phdi d mpt md hinh the ehe boa uu vidt hay sire manh vd qudn sy md ndm d ehd cdc ly thuyet ridng Id hdu nhu khdng gidi thich ddy du tai sao mgt nhdm cae qude gia vira va nhd ed thd duy tri sy tdn tai, phat trien vd thdm chi edn trd thanh trung tam cua cdu tnic an ninh khu vuc.
Moi ly thuyet ddu cd didm manh ridng trong nd lyc ly gidi vai trd cua ASEAN. Nhung chua mdt ly thuyet nao trpn ven trong vide dua ra duge nhiing giai thich hodn bdo. Day chinh la ggi y cho vide dp dung Phuang phdp Phan tich mang ludi xa hdi trong vide tim hidu vd vai trd trung tdm eua ASEAN. Dii SNA la mdt each tidp can mdi, khdng nhidu tac gid sii dung nhung vdi cdc ly thuydt, ludn didm vd quydn lyc xa hgi va edng cu tinh vd "vi tri trung tdm" cua mdt thd ehd, SNA cung cdp mdt cai nhin mdi, ed siic thuydt phuc nhdi dinh vd ly do ASEAN cd duge vi tri trung tdm Uong khu vyc. Ddng thdi, SNA cung gdp phan cung cdp khai nidm vd vi Iri trung tdm
-49
Ap dung phifong phap li6p cjn phan tich mans ItfW xa hQi... LeLena cua ASEAN voi cac dac di£m vk ciu true, chiic nghien cmi n6u nha nghien cihi chu y t6i mgt s6
nang, pham vi, tinh tnmg lap. Tuy nhien, SNA se cac dac diSm han che cua phuomg phap Ichi ap dat dupe phat huy dugc hicu qua trong cac dung trong eac nghien cijru tircmg tir»
Tai lieu tham khao:
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Centre Media Conference, ngay 24/01, http://forum.eastwestccnler.org/mcdiaconfcrence/news-stoiy- on-sunn-pitsuwan-comments-on- ascan-charter/, ngay truy cap 31/08/2009.
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5" '^''™9 "^n M KINH TE VA CHlNH TRj THfe GIO'l 36 12(248) 2016
