KHOA HOC C 6 N 0 N O H t
PHAM TiCH H i e u QUA KIMH T^ TRDIVE RIJIXIG THOMG BA LA CHO MUC OlCH THl/ITIVG IVIAI CAC BOIM VUMG
T A Y IVGUY6IV
VOTinPbllong' l^^hL I chi cic bon dang tiVr n6n r.'i. sOi dOng trong giai doim ti, 2i,^ - 2010 v« gii m '^T".^^^'^"
chi cac bon tang ti, 11 ,y USD nam 2005 l«n 142 ty USD nam 20W (WB 2011). Nhldu y kidn cho r ^ g trdng rimg tiiuong m„ cdc bon se dem lai thu nhip ding kd, g6p phdn x6a doi giim ngheo va th^ hidn muc ueu giim nhe bidn ddi khi hiu ft Vi^t Nam. Nhim lam r6 vftn dd niy. nghifn cuu U«n hinh phin Uch hi^u qua kinh td Udng rimg TWng ba li cho muc Utu Ihuong m:,i c4c bon. Phin Uch hidu qui lunhu- rimg trdng ThOng ba li thu<mg mai c4c bon dua tifn m6 hinh du bio cSc bon cho Th6ng ba U (VO Tin Phuong, 2012), bi^u kinh doanh 14 loii cSy rimg trdng (Bd N.Mig nghidp & PTNT, 2003), 3 kich ban gii bin Un chi cac bon (3, 5 vi 7 USD/tin CO J, 3 kich bin ty Id chi A khiu (3, 5 v4 7Vnara) va quy m6 Udng rimg li 1.000 ha. cac chi sd dinh gi.i hifu qui kinh td gdin gi4 Irt hi«n lai r6ng (NPV). ty 1« chi phi Igi ich (BCR) va ty 1* hoin vdn ni>l bO am. Kdt qui cho thiiy. hi^u qui ining rung Thong ba li thuong mai cic bon phu thuoc vio 3 ydu td quan Upng: chi phi giao dlch, gii bin dn chi r.ic bon vi ty )( lai suit Vi^c udng nmg Thdng ba li thuong mai cic bon se c(i hl«u qui kinh td ndu gii bin Ur chi cic bon tdi thidu li 3 USD/tin CO, vi ty 1^ lai suit vdn vay dudi 7Vnam. Ndu 1.11 suit vdn vay tu 7-105l/nam vi gia bin Ini thidu li 3 USD/tin CO, thi trdng rung ThOng ba li Ihuong m?i cic bon •.;• c6 hiiju qui ndu trdng trSn cip dat 1 - III Tirkhda Hilp thu cic ban. tinroog mai cic bon, Tbdngbali, ti-6ng rimg
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Bidn ddi kbi hiu hidn dang trd tbanh mdi quan tam Idn ciia cdng ddng qudc td va dupe coi la thich thiic Ion ciia nhin loai trong thd ky X)CI. Nguydn nhan din den bidn ddi khi hau la do su gia tang nhanh chdng ndng do khi nha kinh bong khi quydn, chu ydu la khi CO; OPCC, 2007). Nham giam nhe bidn doi khi hau toin ciu, Cdng udc Khung ciia Lidn Hidp Qudc ve bidn ddi khi h i u (UNFCCC) dugc phd chuan vio nam 1992 v i Nghi djuh thu Kyoto da dugc thdng qua nam 1997, trong dd muc bdu chinh li cat giam phat thai kbi nha kinh. Tr^n co sd Nghj dinh thu Kyoto, thuong mai tin chi cac bon da phat bidn manh me bong giai doan 2005 - 2010. Tdng gia tri thuong mai cac bon nam 2005 la 11 ty USD, nam 2006 li 31,2 ty USD, nim 2007 li 63 ty USD, nim 2008 li 135,1 ty USD, nam 2009 li 143,7 ty USD v i nam 2010 la 141,9 ty USD (WB 2011). Tinh ddn thing 10/2012, tdng sd tin chi cic bon thuong m^i bdn toin cau la 1.020.632.741, bong dd Vidt Nam cd 7.095.809 tin chi cac bon, diing tbii 4 trong sd cac nude thuong mai tin chi cic bon (UNFCCC, 2012).
Trong linh vuc lam nghidp, boat dpng trdng rimg v i tii bong rimg li mdt trong nhiing boat dgng phii bgp nbam giam nhe phit thii khi n h i kinh v i tie dgng ciia bidn ddi khi hau.
' Trung tam Nghien cim Sinh thai va Moi trudng Rung 80
Trong nhung nam qua, boat dpng ti-dng rimg, dac bidt la rimg sin xuat phat tridn manh d nude ta vdi muc bdu cbu ydu la cung cap nguyen ligu cho gd giiy, gd dam v i rat ban cbd cbo gd xe. Cac loai cay trdng cbii yeu gdm cae loai keo, bach din, thdng va mpt sd loii ciy b i n d|a. .Mac du trdng r i n g sin xuat da tao ra ngudn thu nhap d i n g kd, gdp phan xoi ddi, giam ngbdo a nbidu dja phuong nbung gii bi hap thu cic bon cua rimg van cbua dupe xem xdt mdt cich day dii. Nhidu y kien cbo ring vide kdt hpp giiia gia tri lim s i n (cbii ydu li gp) v i gii bi hap thu cic bon ciia rimg trdng cd thd se dem lai ngudn thu ding kd cho cic du i n phit tridn lim nghidp, gdp phan giim nb? khi n b i kinh v i bidn ddi khi hau, ddng thdi bdn toi fliue bidn Ngbi d|nb 99/NE)-CP cua Chinh phii vd chinb sdeb chi tra dieb vu mdi tnwmg rimg.
Ciu hdi djt ra l i Udu cbiing ta cd ndn phit bien bdng rimg cbo muc dieb thuong mai cic bon? Trdn phuong didn kinh td, vide trdng rimg thuong mai cac bon ed tbd se dugc phit trien ndu cic du an bdng rimg thuong mai cic bon dem lai hidu qua kinh te.
Nham lam rd vin de niy, nghidn ciiu tidn hanh pbin bch bidu q u i kinh td rimg bdng Thdng ba la ft viing Tiy Nguydn eho muc bdu fliuong mai cac bon.
Thdng ba l i la ciy gd Idn, ed pbin bd hi nhidn oTiy Nguydn v i mdt sd vimg a phia Bic. Vdi chu ky kinh doanb dai (thudng 40 - 50 nam), ed g i i tri nhieu mit nhu nhua, gd gia dving, go xd va go nguydn lipu cho NONG NGHlfP VA PHAT TRIEN N 6 N G T H 6 N - KY 1 - THANG 12/2012
KHOA HQC C 6 N 0 N G H |
san xuat bpt giay ndn Th6ng ba 1^ 1^ l o ^ cSy c6 nhi^u tj^m nSng cho v i ^ trong rimg thmmg mgi cac bon.
Nghi^ cuu cung cung csip cAc ph^n tich t6ng qu^t vatoan di^n v^ hi^u qu^ kinh t^ tr6ng rimg Thfing ba la cho muc tidu thuong mai c^c bon a Vi^t Nam.
L Ddi TUONG, PHAM VI VA PHUONG PHAP NGHCN CUU D6i tupng nghidn cuu la Ceic \&m p h ^ Thong ba la trong tren cac cap dat khac nhau (c^p dat I 6in V) voi luan ky kinh doanh la 40 nSm. Du b^o lugiTg ckc bon thirc t^ bi lo^i bo cua ISm phdn Th6ng ba \k dugc dnh theo cong thirc: Cr = Cs- Cb, trong do: Cr 1^
lirong cac bon thuc te bj loai bo ( t ^ / h a ) ; Cs la luoiig ck bon do lam phdn hap thu (tAn/ha) va Cb la lugng cac bon ccr sa (tan/ha). Luong c^c bon do lam phdn hSp tiiu dupe tinh theo c6ng thiJrc: Cs N*0,0212*D2'^*« voi r = 0,98. trong d6 N la mat dg cay (cay/ha) va D la duong kinh ngang nguc binh qu&n tinh bang cm (Vu Tdn Phuong, 2011). Mat do l&m phin (N) va duong kinh ngang nguc binh quan (D) duoe tr^ tir Bi^u kinh doanh rimg trong 14 loai cay tiong rimg (Bp Nong nghiep va PTNT, 2003), trong do sii dung bieu kinh doanh rimg trong Thong ba la cho viing Tay Nguyen. Trir luong c^c bon co so (Cb) b viing Tay Nguydn duoe uoc tinh la 4,38 tan C/ha (hay 16,02 tan C02/ha) (Vu Tan Phuong, 2006,2012).
Phan tich hidu qua kinh te rimg trong Thong ba la cho muc dich thuong mai cac bon trong nghidn cih nay dupe thuc hidn cho luan ky kinh doanh rimg la 40 nam, 3 kich ban gia ban tin chi cac bon fla 3, 5 va 7 USD/tan CO2) va 3 kich ban ty Id chiet khau Oa 3, 5 va 7%/nam) va quy mo trong rimg la 1.000 ha.
Cac chi so danh gia hidu qua kinh te gom:
- Gia tri hidn tai rong (NPV): Neu NPV > 0 thi du in CO kha thi vi kinh ti vk nguoc lai. Cong dnic tinh NPV nhu sau:
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Trong dd: Bt li tdng doanb tiiu tir rimg (gd, cui,...cic bon); Ctia tdng chi phi lidn quan (trdng bmg, chi phi giao dich c i c bon....); r l i ty le chiet khau; vi t la tiidi gian kinh doanh.
- Ty IS chi phi Ipi ich (BCR): Dupe tinh bing ty Id ciia tdng loi ich kinh td (da dupe chidt khau) thu bi af an bong rimg vol tdng chi phi dau tu cho vide ttfng rimg va cae chi phi khac cd lidn quan (da dupe chidt khiu). Ndu BCR > 1 till du an cd bidu q u i v i neu BCR < 1 thi du i n khdng cd hidu qua kinh td.
Cdng thiic tinh ty Id chi phi loi ich nhu sau:
' ^ fl J- ,.v - ^ Ct
S O + r)' tSO + r)'
- Ty Id hoin vdn ndi bd ORR): Ld miic lai suit tai dd gii d-j hidn tai rdng cua dir in bang 0. Ndu du an bdng rimg Thdng ba Ii li du in dpc lap va cd ty 14 hoan vdn ndi bd Idn hon ty li hoan vdn da dupe xac djnh hi budc (vi du ty Id hpan vdn noi bo Idn hon lai suit vdn vay bdng rimg) till du an dd cin dupe khuydn khich thuc hidn. Ngupc lai ndu ty Id hoan vdn npi bd nho hon ty 16 hoin vdn muc tiSu thi cin phii can cii vio nhidu chi tidu khac dd quydt dinh cd thuc hien du an bdng rimg hay khdng.
•.KETQUAVllTllAOLUiiN
1. Xic djnh lupng cic bon h i p thu thuc td cua lim phin Tlidngbali
Bing 1. Lupng cic bon bip thti thuc td aia lim phin Thdng ba li theo tudi riing vi cip dit Tudi rimg
(nam)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Luc CO Cap dat I 0,00 -16,07
0,37 5,18 5,18 9,78 14,62 19,72 27,01 28,26 35,61 34,47 41,72 42,12 41,07 44,44 47,05 44,39 41,03 48,67 44,56 39,86 42,00 -22,03 108,02 37,05 38,67 40,64
mg cac bon thuc td hap thu (tan ,/ha) theo tudi rimg va cap dat
Cap dat 11
0.00
•16,07
0.29 3,67 3,67 6,97 10,50 14,13 17,98 21,76 25,76 26,83 30,02 29,87 32,15 31,08 32,48 34,87 31,75 33,25 34,46 -56,66 119,24 32,66 33,14 28,70 29,07 30,46
CSp dat 111
0,00 -16,07
0,19 2,34 2,34 4,60 7,78 9.83 12,51 15,24 18,00 20,79 20,99 20,43 25,08 23,90 22,07 27,02 24,75 21,69 26,85 23,19 24,34 18,31 27,86 21,17 22,00 22,99
Cap dat IV
0,00
•16,07
0,10 1,45 1,45 2,90 5,14 6,17 8,01 11,05 11,81 11,92 15,21 14,80 13,87 17,34 28,12 4,71 17,79 15,55 16,08 16,63 17,47 14,16 18,42 14,92 38,88 -11,71
Cap d a t V
0,00
•16,07
0,05 0,81 0,81 1,66 2,99 3,68 4,71 6,72 7,04 8,14 9,27 8,73 9,51 10,27 11,05 9,57 12,38 10,67 11,10 11,53 9,32 9,46 12,73 10,20 10,38 7,37
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN N 6 N G THON - KY 1 - THANG 12/2012 81
KHOA HOC C 6 K G NGHf_
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Tdng (tin CO./ha) Binh quAn (tin CO,/
ha/niliii) 32,80 33,39 34,10 34,97 28,32 35,16 28,52 29,75 28,94 22,40 29,57 20.60 1.201, 92
30.05 23,93 25,40 24,77 25,36 26,02 20,22 27.64 20,48 18,20 24.00 20,11 16,26 894,42
22,36 17,60 17,85 24,26 18,64 13,60 19,52 19,15 14,09 14,67 19,96 14,95 9.93 654.43
16,36 15,94 16,71 12,30 12,53 12,80 13,12 12,87 9,31 13.63 8.74 9,15 14.32 447,5 6
11,19 10,92 10,89 7,99 8.14 8,00 11,69 5,16 8,21 8.81 8,69 5.24 8.80 286,6 2
7.17 Lupng cac bon hap thu thuc t^ trong ckc di; kn trong rung thuong mai cdc bon duoe tinh bang Im^Tig cac bon do rimg hdp thu trir di lupng cdc bon ban ddu Oirpng cdc bon ca so) bj phat thai do hoat dong tr6ng rimg (do hoat dong ph^t dpn thuc bi dan d^n phan huy va phdt thai cdc bon) va ro ri cac bon trong qua trinh thuc hidn du an (bao gdm cac phat thai do su dung phuong tien ca gioi trong van chuyen cay giong, sir dung mdy moc trong tia thua, khai thdc rimg, v.v...). Tuy nhidn trdn thuc td' san xuat lam nghiep o Viet Nam thi hau het cac hoat dong lidn quan den trong rimg, cham soc vd khai thac mang tinh thu cong va it sir dung phuong tien ca giai, vi thef phdt thai tir cdc hoat dpng ndy la khong dang k^ (va coi la bang 0 trong nghien cuu nay). Do vay trong Bdng 2. LupTig tin chi cdc bon
vi^c u6c tinh lugiig cdc bon thuc t^ do rimg hlip thy sd khong bao g6m vi^c u6c tinh rd ri phdt thdi trong qud trinh \hifc hi^n dy dn. Lugng cdc bon hdp thu thuc t^ cung chinh Id Imjng cdc bon d^ tinh tin chi cdc bon. v6i 1 tin chi cdc bon bdng 1 1 ^ CO2. Lugrng cdc bon hdp thu thuc t^ ciia 1dm phdn Th6ng ba Id dieo cdc cdp ddt dupe (hi hi^n 6 bdng 1.
K^t qud cho thdy, d cdp ddt I, tong lupng cdc bon bi loai b6 trong cd ludn ky 40 nam Id 1.201,9 tdn CO2.
cho 1 ha. L u ^ g cdc bon hdp thu binh qudn Id 30,1 tdn CO^yha/nam. VtM cdp ddt II, tong lupng cdc bon hdp thu cho 1 ha Id 894,4 tdn CO;^ vd lupng cdc bon hdp thu binh quan Id 22,4 tdn COa^/ha/nSm. Tong lupng cdc bon hdp thu cho 1 ha rimg Th6ng ba Id o cdp ddt III trong 40 nam Id 654,5 t ^ COj,, binh qudn la 16,4 tdn COjyha/nam. Tai cdp ddt IV, t6ng lupng cdc bon hdp thp trong 40 nam cho 1 ha Id 447,6 tan CO2,. binh qi dn Id 11,2 tdn C02,/ha/nam. Cdp ddt V c6 t6ng lupng cdc bon hdp thu Id 286,6 tdn CO2,, binh qudn Id 7,2 tdn COs./ha/nam.
Lupng cdc bon bi loai bo do smh truong ciia rimg mang lai chi co th^ thuong mai n^u vide ki^m chung dupe thuc hi^n. Theo quy djnh, v i ^ kiem chung phai dupe thuc hi^n 5 nam mpt lan. Nghla la luprng tin chi cac bon chi co gid tri 5 nam k^ tir ngay dupe ki^m chung. Dua trdn ket qua xac dinh lupng cdc bon do rimg hdp thu, lupng tin chi cdc bon co the thuong mai dupe xac djnh cho timg giai doan trong luan ky kinh doanh rimg trong Thdng ba la Quan ky 40 nam) dupe th^ hidn a bang 2.
thuong mgi theo timg giai do^n Thdi gian
(nim) 1 - 5 6 - 1 0 1 1 - 1 5 1 6 - 2 0 2 1 - 2 5 2 6 - 3 0 3 1 - 3 5 36-40 Tong cdng
Lupng tin chi cic bon thuong mai theo giai doan va cap dat (tan C02,/ha) I
•5,34 99,39 194,99 225,57 212,41 182,56 161,08 131,27 1.201,92
11 -8,44 71,34 144,63 163,43 162,84 137,55 124,01 99,05 894,42
III
•11,21 49,96 105,30 119,44 120,55 101,61 95,17 73,60 654,43
rv
•13,08 33,26 67,61 83,50 82,76 74,73 63,62 55,15 447,56
V -14,41
19,76 42,69 53,96 54,14 49,75 40,98 39,76 286,62 Nhu vay lupng tin chi cac bon tao ra la khdc
nhau trong mdi giai doan thoi gian ciia ludn ky kinh doanh. Mpt di^u ro rdng la trong giai doan tuoi 1-5, sinh truong cua rimg la cham, cpng voi vide gay phdt thai do hoat dpng phat dpn thuc bi khi ti^n hanh
trong va cham soc, ndn giai do?ii ndy chua tao ra tin chi cdc bon. Trong giai do^n 5 nam ti^p theo (tir tuoi 6 - 1 0 ) , rimg da tgo ra tin chi cdc bon, nhung cung chua \6n. Giai doan mang lai tin chi cdc bon nhi^u
82 NONG NGHlfP VA PHAT TRIEN N O N G T H 6 N - K t 1 - THANG 12/2012
iCHOA HQC C 6 N 6 N G H |
nhat la tir tuoi 16 -30, sau do tin chi cdc bon sd giam ddn den khi rimg khai thdc.
2. Cdc chi phi tr6ng ning bdn tin chi cdc bon Bi thuong m?ii dupe gid trj hap thu cdc bon do rimg mang lai, khdc voi cdc du an tr6ng rung thong thucmg thi cdc du dn trong rimg thuong mai cac bon phai thoa man nhung di^u kidn nhat dinh theo ydu cau cua timg tidu chuan dp dung (nhu: ca ch^ phdt trien sach: CDM; tidu chudn cdc bon tu nguydn: VCS, v.v...) vd se phai bao gom cac chi phi lidn quan d^n diirc hidn du an vd chi phi nay goi la chi phi giao dich. Dieu nay c6 nghla Id, ngoai cdc chi phi cho vi^c dau tu cua mpt du dn trong rimg thong thuong (chi tinh cac Ipi ich v^ l&m san vd khong tinh Ipi ich vi thuong mai gid tri hdp thu cdc bon ciia rung) thi du an thuong mai cac bon phai ddu tu mot khoan chi phi nhat dinh d^ co th^ bdn dupe tin chi cdc bon trong thoi gian kinh doanh rimg. Nhu vay, du an trdng
rimg thuong mai cdc bon s6 bao gom cdc 2 khoan ddu tu sau:
- D^u tir cho trdng vi quin 1^ rimg. cdc chi phi ndy bao gdm tir khau thi^t k^ trdng rimg, mua cay gidng, phan bdn, nhan cdng trdng, cham soc, quan ly bao v^ vd khai thdc rimg. Day cung la cac loai chi phi trong cdc hoat dpng thdng thudng.
- Bin tu cbo thuong m^ tin chi cic bon. chi phi ndy dupNc gpi chung la chi phi giao dich, bao gom cac chi phi cho qua trinh lap dir dn theo tidu chuan xac dinh (CDM, VCS, v.v...) vd theo ddi giam sat du dn.
Day Id nhung chi phi chi phyc vu cho vide thuong mai tin chi cdc bon.
Cdc chi phi cho trdng vd quan ly rimg Thdng ba Id dupe tinh todn dua trdn cdc dinh muc kinh t^ ky thuat hi^n hanh vd don gia cac loai vat tu (phan bdn, cay gidng, v.v....) va nhan cdng tai thdi diem nghien cuu. Tdng hpp cdc chi phi cho trdng va quan ly rimg trong thdi gian 40 nam dupe th^ hidn d bang 3.
Bdng 3. Tdng hqp chi phi kinh doanh rimg Tlidng ba Id luto k^ 40 nSm TT
1 2 3 4 5
Hangmuc Chi phi vat tu Chi phi nhan cdng Chi phi khac Tdng chi phi nam 1 - 4 Chi phi tir nam 5 - 4 0
Chi phi xiy dung rimg (tir nam 1 - 4), ddng 1
2.110.000 5.670.000 145.000 7.925.000
2 965.000 2.477.396 25.000 3.467.396
3 0 1.561.468 25.000 1.586.468
4 0 1.561.468 25.000 1.586.468 9.720.000
Tdng chi phi eho toan luan ky 40 nam (ddng/ha) i 24.285.333 Nhu vay muc dau tu binh quan cho trdng rimg
Thdng ba la d thdi diem hidn tai la khoang 24,3 hi^u dong/ ha cho todn bd chu ky 40 nam. Tuy nhidn cdc chi phi chu yeu tap trung vao 4 nSm dau. Day la giai doan xay dung rimg vd tdng chi phi cho giai doan nay la khoang 14,5 tridu dong, chiem tdi 60% tdng gid trj ddu tu. 6 giai do?n ti^p theo, cac chi phi chu yeu la bao vd rimg va phdng chdng chdy rimg.
Lidn quan d^n chi phi giao dich trong thuong mai cdc bon cua cac du dn hap thu cdc bon theo ca ch^ CDM, VCS, thi cdc chi phi chii y^u nhu sau:
- Chi phi I ^ du an: bao gom cdc chi phi v^ tim kiem va ddnh gid du dn; chi phi dam phdn hoac chi phi phdp ly; chi phi thi^t k^ du dn; chi phi tham dinh;
chi phi phd duydt va chi phi dang ky. Cu th^ cdc chi phi nay gom:
+ Chi phi tim ki^m vd ddnh gid du dn: gdm cdc chi phi v^ xac dinh vd tim ki^m cdc ddi tdc cd quan tdm thuc thi trong rimg vd tdi trdng rimg theo co ch^
phdt trien sach (AR-CDM) va tim kiem hidn trudng du dn Oira chpn hidn trudng, khao sat dieu tra vung dudnvedieukidntirnhidn, kinh t^,xa hdi, v.v....).
+ Chi phi dam phdn/phdp ly: gdm cac chi phi cho ddm phan v6i cac ben quan tam de dat thoa thuan (hpp ddng thiet lap, td chuc cac phien hop...).
+ Chi phi thi^t k^ du dn: gdm cdc chi phi cho xay dung van kien thidt k^ du an (FDD) nhu cac thong sd ky thuat de tinh toan dudng cdc bon co sd, udc tinh lupng cdc bon hap thu, cdc bidn phdp phap giam sdt, k^ hoach trdng vd quan ly rimg, v.v.. ..
+ Chi phi tham dinh: gdm chi phi cho ca quan thdm dinh (DOE) de ti^n hdnh thdm dinh du dn (cdn gpi Id chi phi kiem dinh vd do ca quan chuyen mdn ddc lap diuc hien).
+ Chi phi phd duydt: bao g6m cdc chi phi lidn quan d^n si; phd duydt cua ca quan tiiam quyen qudc gia ( D N ^ cua nuoc thuc hidn vd cdc nhd dau tu lidn quan d^n phd duydt du dn ti-dng rimg, v.v...
NONG NGHlfP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG T H 6 N - KV 1 - THANG 12/2012
KHOA HOC rtWC ttKMIf
+ Chi phi dang ky: gdm cic chi phi lidn quan ddn ding ky du in vdi Ban didu hinh dvr i n CDM eiia Udn Hidp Qudc.
• Chi phi Uieo doi giim sit: bao gdm Uieo doi, kidm ehiing vi cip chung nhin tin chi cic bon, cu thdii:
+ Chi phi theo ddi: l i cic chi phi chp boat ddng giim sit dd udc tinh lupng khi n h i kinh bi loji bd dua bdn md binh hoi, cdng nghd vidn tiiim, didu b a hidn budng, v.v.... Hoat ddng niy mang tinh lidn tac bong sudt thdi gian thuc hidn du in.
+ Chi phi kidm dinh: li chi phi cho bdn tiiir ba va do DOE tiiuc hidn nhim kidm chiing vide udc tinh b i p tiiy cac bon vi xic minb lupng tin cbi cic bon thuc td do du in mang l^d. Vide kidm chung dupe Udn binh 5 nam mdt lin.
-t- Chi phi cip chiing nhin tin cbi cic bon: Ii chi phi cho vide cip chiing nhin tin cbi cic bon sau kbi da dupe kldm chiing. Chi phi nay tinh bdn lupng tin Bing 4. Chi phi giao djch chp mdt
chi cic bpn va khping 2% dpanh fliu hi bin tin chi cae bpn se dupe bich ndp vip qu? tiiich ling, bit cic nude dang phit bidn.
Mic dii da cd mdt sd lupng Idn c i c dtr an thuong mai cic bon dupe thyc bidn nhung ddn nay khdng ed mdt quy djnh chinh tiiiic nio vd chi phi giao djch bong du i n tiiuong rnsi c i c bon. Cbi phi giao djch niy li rit khic nhau giua c i c linb vue, c i c qudc gia vi cic nha diu bi. Xem xdt chi phi giao djch cua cic du i n CDM quy md nhd chp thiy chi phi tim kidm vi dim phin du i n 14 bi 22.000 - 160.000 USD; chi phi phd duydt li tu 12.000 - 120.000 USD; vi chi phi tiien ddi glim sit li tit 5,000 - 270.000 USD (WB, 2011).
Su bidn ddng r i t Idn bong bmg hang muc cua chi pbi giao djch eho thiy chi phi giap djeh la k h i nhay cim tuy tiiudc vio loai du an. Mjc dii cd su khac bidt Idn vd chi phi giao djch bong c i c du i n Uiuong mai cic bon, md so nghidn eiiu cung dua ra udc tinh miic cbi phi giao djch eho c i c du i n dupe thd hidn d bing 4.
:du i n trdng rimg thuong mai c i c boo
Hang muc Dpn vi tinh
1. Lap du an
1.1. xac dinh & dinh gii tinh k h i thi 1.2. Xiy dung vin kidn du an 1.3. Phd duydt cba nude tiiuc hidn 1.4. Tham dinh ban dau 1.5. Cbi pbi thuong thao/phap ly 1.6. Chi phi dang ky
Duan D u i n D u i n D u i n D u i n D u i n 2. Theo dpi va giim sit
2.1. Theo doi
2.2. Xic minh va chiing nhin 2.3. Cap chiing nhin tin chi
D u i n 5 nam/lin
USD/tin CO2 Tdng cpng
Chi phi (USD) Trung
binh 124.250 9.000 37.500 2.250 28.000 27.500 20.000 40.000 10.000 30.000
Thap 55.500 3.000 15.000 1.500 21.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 5.000 10.000 0,1 USD ehp 15.000 tin C USD cho W n 15.000 tin 164.250 1 70.500
Cao 193.000 15.000 60.000 3.000 35.000 50.000 30.000 65.000 15.000 50.000 O2; 0,2 CO,.
258.000 Nhu vay cho thdy n^u khdng tinh chi phi cdp
chung nhan tin chi cdc bon thi chi phi giao djch cua mdt dir dn thuong mai cac bon trung binh la 164.250 USD (bien ddng bi 70.500 - 258.000 USD), ti-ong dd chi phi lap du an chid'm tdi 86% tong chi phi giao djch va chi phi theo ddi gidm sdt la khoang 14% tong chi phi giao dich. Tuy nhidn nhu da ndu a trdn thi chi phi giao dich phu thudc nhidu vdo quy mo du dn vd loai du dn. Kinh nghiem tu du an trdng rimg quy md nhd theo CO ch^ CDM do JICA xay dung tai huy^n Cao Phong tinh Hod Binh cho thay, tdng chi chi phi giao
dich cho du an nay trong 15 nam la khoang 1,3 ty ddng, trong dd chi phi ki^m chiing chi^m tdi 60%
aiCA,2009).
C6 th^ thdy chi phi giao dich thuong mai cdc bon phu thu^c vao quy md du an, do vay chi phi giao dich sd cao n^u quy md du an nho. Day cung la diem cdn luu y d^ xac dinh quy mo diJt an phu hpp dam bao tinh hi^u qua. Trdn c a sd nay, d^ tinh toan chi phi giao dich cho 1 ha, nghidn ciiu tinh todn chi phi giao dich cdc bon cho trdng rimg Thdng ba Id luan kj^ 40 nam trdn quy md 1.000 ha. K^t qua udc tinh chi phi 84 N 6 N G NGHlfP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KV 1 - THANG 12/2012
KHOA Hpc C 6 N G NGHt
giao djch cdc bon dupe th^ hidn a bdng 5 (dp dung ty giai USD = 21.000 VND).
Bdng 5. Chi phi giao dich cdc bon cho 1 ha r£mg tr6ng thuong nmi cdc bon ludn k^ 40 nam Thdi
gian (nam)
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 Tdng
Lapdu an (ddng) 2.604.000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.604.000
Thim dinh (ddng)
630.000 630.000 630.000 630.000 630.000 630.000 630.000 4.410.000
Theo d61, giim sit
(dong) 26.900 26.900 26.900 26.900 26 900 26,900 26.900 26 900 215.200
Tdng (ddng)
2.630.90O 656.900 656.900 656.900 656.900 656.900 656.900 656.900 7 229 21X) Tinh toan nay cho thay vide dau tu cho tidng rimg thuong mai cdc bon Id khd Idn. Ddi vdi du an trong Thdng ba la luan ky 40 nSm, didn tich 1000 ha
Bdng 6. Udc tinh tdng doanh thu bi Ubn sdn
thi t6ng chi phi udc tinh la khoang 7,2 ty ddng/du an (hay 7,2 tii^u d6ng/ha/40 nam). Tuy nhidn, day khdng phdi Id sd ti^n ddu tu ngay mdt luc md chia 1dm nhi^u Idn. Trong giai doan 5 nSm dau, chi phi binh quan cho 1 ha Id 2.630.900 ddng, va cdc giai doan ti^p theo cd th^ bdn tin chi cdc bon. Nhu vay, chi phi ndy cung khdng phai Id cao. Chi phi nay cd th^ gidm, n^u quy md du dn Idn hon.
3. Phan tich doanh thu tir trdng rimg thuong mai cdc bon
Doanh thu tir rimg trdng thuong mai cac bon bao gom doanh thu tir lam sdn vd doanh thu tir ban tin chi cdc bon. Vide xdc dinh doanh thu tir lam san la nhdm muc dich so sdnh xdc dinh gid tii tang thdm ndu dp dung trong rimg thuong mai cdc bon. Tinh todn doanh thu tir lam san tap tiling vdo khai thac chinh vd khdng bao gom tir tia thua vd cac san pham phi go (nhua). Kdt qua xdc dinh tdng doanh thu tii Idm sdn dupe th^ hidn d bang 6.
cija 1 ha rimg Thdng ba Id luSn 1^ 40 n5m Hang muc
Gdldn Go nguydn lidu Gdcui Tdng
Doanh tiiu theo cap dit (1.000 ddng) I
371.450 363.584 27.074 762.128
11 273.275 267488 19.993 560.696
III 198.900 194.688 14.508 408.096
rv
134.300 131.456 9.796 275.552
V 86.700 84.864 6.324 177.888 So lieu tai bang 6 cho thay doanh thu tir khai
thac chinh lam san trong kinh doanh trong rimg Thong ba la cao nhat la d cap dat I vdi doanh thu ude tinh la khoang 762,1 tridu ddng, tidp den la cap dat II voi khoang 560 tridu dong, cap dat III la 408 tridu dong, c£^ dat IV la 275,5 tridu dong va cap dat V Id 177.8 tridu ddng.
Ddi vdi vide xdc dinh doanh thu hi cdc bon cho Bdng 7. Udc tinh doanh thu tu hkn tin chi cdc
1 ha rimg trdng Thdng ba la, nghien cuu udc tinh doanh thu tir bdn tin chi cac bon dua trdn: luong tin chi cdc bon do rtmg tao ra theo timg giai doan xdc minh vd cho timg cap ddt va gid ban tin chi cdc bon (trong nghidn ciiu ndy, sir dung 3 kich ban gia de tinh todn la: 3 USD/tan CO2, 5 USD/tan CO; va 7 USD/tan CO2). Ket qud ude tinh doanh thu tii bdn tin chi cdc bon ciia 1 ha rimg trdng Thdng ba la vdi luan ky 40 nam dupe ihi hidn d bang 7.
bon Timg tiling Thdng ba Id luftn k^ 40 nSm Hang muc
Lupng tin chi (tan CO,,) Gia ban 3$
Gii ban 5S Gii ban 7$
Udc tinh doanh thu tir cic Cap dat I
1.201,9 75.721,0 126.201,6 176.682,2
Cap dit II 894,4 56.348,5 93.914,1 131.479,7
bon rimg Thdng ba li (1.000 ddng/ha) Cap dit III
654,4 41.229,1 68.715,2 96.201,2
Cip dat IV 447,6 28.196,3 46.993,8 65.791,3
Cip dat V 286,6 18.057,1 30.095,1 42.133,1 Nhu viy ndu gii bin tin chi eie bon tir 3 - 7
USD/tin CO,, thi doanh tiiu bi bin tin chi cic bon cho 1 ha rimg Thdng ba Ii se hi 75,7 - 176,6 bidu ddi vdi cap dat I, til 56,3 -131,4 bidu chp cap dat U; tit 41,2 - 86,2 bidu vdi cap dat III; khoing 28,1-65,7 bidu cho cap dit IV vi tir 18 - 42,1 bidu vol cap dit V.
4. Dinh gii hidu q u i kinh td bdng rimg thuong mai eie bon
Dinh gii hidu qua kinh td dupe dua bdn phan tich cic gii trj NPV, IRR v i BCR. Sir dung cic hd sd chidt khau khic nhau dd phan tich v i xic dinh hidu qua kinh td cua bdng rimg tiiuong mai cic bon. Cic
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG T H 6 N - K t 1 - THANG 12/2012
85
KHOA H 9 C C6N«t WCHt
hd sd chidt khiu (r) sit dung li: 3, 5 vi 7«/nam. Phin vi 3 kich bin gii nhu da ndu Wn dupe tiid hidn p tich bidu qui kinh td dupe tidn hinb chu timg cip dit bing 8.
C a p d a t
1
11
111
I V
V C h i s d N P V ( 1 . 0 0 0 d ^ a ) I R R B C R N P V ( 1 . 0 0 0 d / h a ) I R R I K R N P V (1 0 0 0 d/lia) I R R H C R N P V d 0 0 0 d / h a ) I R R B C R N P V (1 OOOd/liu) I R R B C R
T h e o giA r = 3 % 2 2 4 4 9 7
6.81 159 844
5.7_1 1 10 6 7 4
3 U S I V t ^ 1 = 5 % 9 9 . 7 5 8 1 1 , 6 % 5 . 1 0 6 8 . 4 7 8 I U . 4 %
• 4 . 1 1 4 4 . 6 6 4
n C O , v * i : r - 7 %
4 2 3 6 2
3.05 2 6 . 5 9 3
2.35 14.573 9 . 1 % 4.67 6 8 0 2 3
3.22 2 4 . 0 2 6
1.77 4.171 7 . 7 % 3.52 3f> 3 7 9
2.33 8 6 9 6
1.23 -3 5 6 6 6 , 2 %
2.47 , . . , 7 O.HO
T h e o KlA r - 3 % 24S 6 W
5 nsivt^n r - 5 %
1 15,296 COi V*!:
r - 7 % 52.672 i 2 , y % 7.44 177.704
5.73 79 870
3,55 34.098 1 1 . 4 % 6.25 123.602
4.62 52.840
2,73 19.905 9 , 9 % 5 . 1 0 117.115
3.61 49.431
2.05 18.749 1 0 . 2 % 5.34 4 1 , 7 8 8
3.63 1 1,987
2.03 -I 517 6 , 7 %
2 . 6 9 ,,••5 0.91
Theo giA r - 3 % 272.902
7 V SU/titn C O , vfri:
1-5%
1 30 834 M . 1 % 8.06 195.565
6.35 91 263
r - 7 % 62.982
4,05 41.604 12,4%
6.78 136.531
5,12 3.12 25.236 10.7%
5.52 85.388
4.00 34.847
2.34 18 749 8.9%
4.16 47 197
2.88 15.279
1,61 531 7 . 1 %
2.91 1,93 1.03
Kdt qua phin bch hidu qua kinh td vd tidng rimg Thong ba li thuong mai cic bon d quy md 1.000 ha cho diiy:
- Ndu gia bin tin chi cic bon li 3 USD/tin CO;:
+ Viec bdng rimg Thdng ba li bdn mpi cip dat chi duoe khuydn khich khi miic lai suit ip dung cho vdn vay bdng ning nhd hon hoac bang 5%/nam vi khi dd gia tri hidn tai rdng cua mpi du in trdng rimg ddu duong vi BCR deu Idn hon 1. Rieng rimg bong ben cip dat I, II, III va cap dit FV, ndu miic lai suit bi 7,0% den 10,2%/nam thi viec bdng rimg Uiuong m^
cac bon ddu cd hidu qua.
+ Ndu miic lai suit ap dung cho vdn vay bdng rimg Idn ben 10%/nam thi viec phat bien rimg tidng Thong ba la tiieo co chd phat bidn sach bdn cap dat IV khdng mang lai hieu qua kinh td (NPV<0 vi BCR<1).
- Ndu gii ban tin chi cic bon la 5 USD/tan COj:
+ Ndu lii suit vdn vay bdng rimg nhd hon hoic bang 5%/nam: Cac du an phit tridn bdng rimg thdng ba la Uieo co chd phit bidn sach bdn cap dit I, II, III vi rv ddu mang lai hieu qui kinh td vdi NPV > 0, IRR
>6%,BCR>1.
+ Neu lai suit vdn vay trdng rimg Idn hon 11,4%/nam vi nhd hon 12,9%/nam: Cbi ed rimg bdng ben cap dit I mang lai hidu qui kinh td.
+ Ndu lii suit vdn vay trdng rimg Idn hon 12,9%/nam: Khong ndn dau tu vio vide bdng rimg thdng ba li theo co chd phat trien sach.
- Neu gia bin tin chi eie bon li 7 USD/tin CO,:
+ Ndu miic lii suit vdn vay bdng nmg nhd hon hoic bang 7,1%/nam, vi^ phat tridn trdng rimg Thdng ba Ii Uieo co chd phit tridn sach bdn mpi cip dat ddu mang lai hidu qui kinh td kha cao (NPV>0, BCR>1), dac bidt la cac rung trdng bdn dit cip I, cap II (mdt ddng diu tu vio vi^e bdng nmg ed Uid dem lai tit 4,73 ddn 5,91 ddng doanh thu Ki vide kmh doanh rimg bdng).
+ Ndu miic lai suit vdn vay bdng rung Ion hon 7,1%/nam vi nhd hon 10,7%/nim, vide dau tu bdng rimg ti-dng Thdng ba li Uieo ca chd phat uidn sach vin cd Uid md rpng ddn cip dit III.
+ Ndu miic Iii suit vdn vay bdng rimg Idn hon hp^c bang 14,1%/nam thi khdng ndn diu tu vio vide bdng rimg Thdng ba la theo co chd phat uidn sach vi tit ci cae chi Udu kmh td ddu ttid hidn ring vide dau
hi niy mang 1^ hidu qua rat Ulip (doanh Uiu tit videkinh doanh rimg trdng khdng tiid bii dip dupe cic chi phi phii bora).
N.KtTliUNVllKRNGII
Trdng ning thuong mai eie bon hoan toan khic vdi bdng rimg thdng thudng. Didm khic nhau co ban la dd cd thd bin dupe tin chi eie bon do rimg tao ra till cin phii biin tiiij eie quy djnh nghidm ngit Uieo cic Ueu chuin ip dung (nhu CDM, VCS, v.v...) vi tdng chi phi giao dieh cic bon chidm hi 3040%
tdng vdn dau tu.
Hidu qui kmh td rimg frdng Thdng ba li cho
muc dieh thuong mai cic bon phu Uiudc vao 3 nhin
td quan trpng: chi phi giao dieh cic bon; gii bin tin
chi cic bon vi ly Id chidt khau. Vi^ trdng rimg
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN N 6 N G T H 6 N - Kt 1 - THANG 12/2012KHOA HQC CdNG N G H t
Thong ba Id cho thuong mai cdc bon theo c a ch^
phat tri^n sach se cd hifiu qua kinh t^ n^u quy md trong rimg toi thi^u Id 1.000 ha, gid bdn tin chi cdc bon toi thi^u Id 3 USD/tdn CO2 vd lai suat dudi 7%/nam. Neu lai suat tir 7 - 10% thi v i ^ trdng rimg thuong mai cdc bon chi cd hi^u qua ddi vdi cdp dat I, llvalll.
Kha ning hap thu cdc bon ciia rimg phu thugc chat che vdo di^u ki^n tu nhidn vd lodi cdy trong, do v?iy d^ cd cdc quy^t dinh ddu tu diing ddn can ti^n hanh phan tich hi^u qua kinh td trudc khi tidn hdnh mflt dir an trong rimg thuong mai cdc bon trong cdc di^u kidn cu th^.
TAI L M THAM KHAO
1. Bd NN & PTNT. 2003. Bidu didu tra kinh doanh rimg trong cua 14 loai cSy chii ydu. Nxb Ndng nghiep, Ha Ndi. 182 trang.
2. IPCC, 2006. Guidelines for National greenhouse gases mventory. IGES.
3. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovemment Panel on Chmate Change: WGI: "
The Physical Science of Climate Change", WGII:
"Impacts, Adaptation & Vuherability", WGIII:
"Mitigation of Climate Change", 2007.
4. JICA, 2009. Final report on Capacity building for AR CDM project development in Vietnam.
Department of Forestry, MARD, Hanoi.
5. UNFCCC, 2012. http://cdm.unfcccint/ Statistics/
Issuance/CERsIssuedByHostParlyPieCharthtmL 6. Vu Tdn Phuong, 2006. Nghiin ciiu tiit luong cic bon thim tuoi vi ciy bui: ca so dd xic dinh dudng cic bon ca sd trong cic du in tidng rimg/tai tidng rung theo ca chd phit triSn sach a Viet Nam.
Tap chi Ndng nghidp va PTNT. 8/2006 (81-84).
7. Vu Tdn Phuong, Vd D?i Hai, 2011. Cdu tivc sinh khdi ciia rimg tidng Thdng ba li thuin loii tai Lim Ddng. Tap chi Khoa hpc Ldm nghidp. Sd 2/2011 (1813-1827).
8. Vu Tan Phuong and Vo Dai Hai, 2011. Report on forest carbon tranding activities in Viemam.
Consultancy report sumitted to JICA Forestry Program, VNForest, Hanoi.
9. VO Tan Phuong, 2012. Xic dinh truluQngcac bon vi phan tich hiiu qua kinh te tidng rimg Thdng ba li theo ca chd phat trien sach a Viet Nam. Lugn dn Tien sy Ndng nghiep. Vidn Khoa hpc Lam nghiep Vidt Nam. Hd Ndi.
10. WB, 2011. State and tiends of tiie carbon markets 2010. WB Washington DC 2011.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FOREST PLANTATION OF PINUSKEYSIA FOR CARBON BUSSINESS PURPOSE IN CENTRAL HIGHLAND OF VIETNAM
Vu Tan Phuong Summary
Trading of carbon credits has become an emerging interest, particuljirly in period of 2005 - 2010. The revenues of carbon credits trading increased from 11 billion USD in 2005 to 142 billion USD in 2010 (WB 2011). It is believed that forest plantation for carbon purpose could bring considerable benefits, contributing to hunger and poverty alleviation and achievement of mitigation objectives for climate change program in Vietnam. To discuss such issue, the study on economic analysis of forest plantation of Pinus keysia for carbon trading purpose in Central Highland was earned out based on carbon stock estimation models for Pmus keysia (Vu Tan Phuong 2012), yield tables of 14 tree species for forest plantation (MARD 2003), 3 carbon credits prices scenario (3, 5 and 7 USD/ton 00^), 3 discount rates (3, 5 and 7%/year) and forest plantation scope of 1,000 ha. Economic analysis is done by assessing Net Present Value (NPV), Benefits and Costs Rate (BCR) and Intemal Rate of Return aRR)- The results showed that economic effect of forest plantation of Pinus keysia for carbon trading purpose depends on three important factors: transaction costs, pnce of carbon credits and interest rate. Under the transaction costs estimated in AR CDM, forest plantation of Pmus keysia for carbon business could be economically effective if minimum price of cari)on credits is 3 USD/ton CO; and interest rate for investment costs is lower than 7%/year. If the interest rate of investment costs is from 7-10%/year and minimum price of carbon credit is 3 USD/ton CO;, establishment of Pinus lieysia plantations for carbon business could be economically effective if the plantations grown on soil class of I - III.
Ifeywords: Carbon sequestration, carbon trading, Pinus keysia, forest plantation.
Ngudi phan bi$n: PCS. TS. L6 Tliu Hoa Ngdy nhdn bdi: 02/10/2012 Ngdy thdng qua phdn bi^n: 30/11/2012 Ngdy duyet ding: 5/12/2012
N6NG NGHlfP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG T H 6 N • Kt 1 - THANG 12/2012
