Kien nghj giai phap didu van cac ho chua thuy dien dam bao Ipi ich da muc tieu
TS. L i QUANG DlfeN
1 . Tiem nang thu^ didn
Tilm nang thuy dien oia Viet Nam khd phong phu. Vile xdc dinh tilm ndng thu^ di|n todn qudc da dfldc tiln hdnh tfl sau gill phdng miln Nam thdng nlidt dlt nfldc.
Theo "Gidi trinh kinh te ky thudt chung vl thuy di?n nfldc ta" do Trung tam Nghien cflu vd Thilt kl thuy diln lap (thdng 12 nam 1980): Tiem nang thuy di|n toan bd sdng sudi cd chilu ddi tfl 10km trd lln gdm 2.171 song sudi nhfl sau:
- Trfl ndng ly thuylt: Tdng cdng sudt 34.674 MW, dien ndng 300,044 ty kWh.
- Tilm nang kinh t l ky thudt: Tong cdng sudt khodng 16.300 MW, dien ndng 80,417 tykWh (vdi sd gid phdt cdng sudt ldp mdy binh quan xap xi 5.000 gid/ndm).
Theo Quy hoach phdt triln dien Iflc qudc gia giai doan 2006 - 2015 cd xet trien vpng den nam 2025 (Quy hoach dien 6) thi tilm nang kinh te - ky thuat thuy dien nfldc ta khoang 120 ty kWh, vdi cdng sudt lap may khoang 30.000 MW, nlu xit din yeu td Idnh t l - xa hdi vd tdc ddng den mdi trfldng thi tiem nang kinh te - ky thudt khodng 83 ty kWh va thuy dien vfla va nhd sd bd cd the phdt triln trln 3.000MW, vdi sdn Ifldng diln khoang 8-10 tykWh.
Theo Quy hoach phdt trien Di|n Iflc qudc gia giai doan 2011 - 2020 cd xet triln vpng den nam 2030 (Quy hoach dien VIl): Tilm ndng kinh t l - ky thudt ngudn thuy diln nfldc ta khodng 75-80 ty kWh, vdi cdng suat tfldng flng 18-20 trilu kW vd 16,4 ty kWh (cdng suat tfldng flng 4 trilu kW) thuy diln nhd.
Hiln tai cdc ngdnh, doanh nghiep va dia phfldng da vk dang tiln hdnh lap dfl an vd xay dflng thuy dien nhd, nln chdng cin cap nhat day du hdn vl loai ngudn thuy di|n nay 2. Nhiem vu da muc tieu
cua cac cong trinh thuy dien
Sfl dyng tdng hdp ngudn nfldc ndi chung vd cua cdc cdng trinh thuy diln ndi rilng Id mdt yeu clu tat ylu.
Hflffj^
J i S ^ ' M ^
Ddi vdi cdc cdng trinh thuy di?n Idn d Viet Nam cd thi quy tu cdc myc tieu nhfl sau:
- Cdc cdng trinh thuy diln d mien Bac: Hod Binh, Sdn La (sdng Dd), Tuyen Quang (sdng Ld), Thdc Bd (sdng Chay) ngoai phdt diln cdn chdng lii cho ha Iflu (Luan chflng kinh te ky thudt cdng trinh thuy dien Hod Binh da xdc dinh nhiem vy chdng lu Id nhilm vy sd l), bd sung ngudn nfldc, tao thuan loi cho giao thdng thuy ha Iflu, phdt triln thuy sdn long hd... Cdng trinh diuy dien Cfla Dait (trln sdng Chu - he thdng sdng Ma), Ban Ve (sdng Cd) cung cd cac nhiem vu trln, trong dd thuy di|n Bdn Ve cdn cd them nhiem vy day man cho ha Iflu.
- Cac cdng trinh thuy diln miln Trung, mien Nam ngodi phdt dien, nudi trdng thuy sdn, cdn bd sung ngudn nfldc cho ha Iflu. Rieng thuy diln Tri An cdn cd nhi^m vu dly man. Da myc tieu cua cdng trinh thuy diln ndy vl sau cdn gdp phln chdng bien ddi khi hau, cd chi phdt trien sach (CDM).
Hiln tai mpt sd dfl dn thuy dien quy md vfla vd nhd dang trien khai theo hfldng khai thdc da myc tieu, cdng trinh thuy diln Idn chi cd mdt dfl dn. Ngdy 28/6/2011, Ngdn hdng Nha nfldc Viet Nam va Ngan hang The gidi kf thod thudn tdi chinh vd cic van bdn hen quan khac cho khodn vay 330 trilu USD de giup xdy dflng nha mdy thu'J' diln da muc tieu Trung Sdn (Thanh Hod) cdng suit 260 MW. Thuy diln Trung Sdn se ddng gdp vdo sfl da dang nguon cung cdp va an ninh ndng Ifldng Vilt Nam, ddng didi gdp phln vao chfldng trinh chdng
56 83(2/2012) NANG LUONG VI$T NAM [13]
PHANBIEN-KICNNGHI
bi«n d6i khi hju bing cSch giim thii khoing 1 tri|u tSn khi COj m6i nam.
3. Vai tr6 thuy di^n trong HTD Viet Nam
Theo Quy hoach phit triin Di|n lv(c Vi|t Nam giai doan 2011 -2020, c6 \it triin vong dSn nim 2030 (Q.uy hoach di|n 7), thuy di|n d6ng vai tr6 quan trong trong hi th6ng ngu6n di|n, lu6n chiim t^ trong Idn trong toin bo CO ciu sin xuit di|n. Trong giai do^n 1990- 2002, tf li niy thay ddi theo ting nSm, cao nhSt d?t 75% nam 1994 vi thSp nhit li 51% nim 1998. Trong cic nam gin diy do cic ngu6n thuy di|n dUa vio v4n hinh it vi cic nhi miy nhilt di|n mdi dUa vio vin hinh c6 c6ng suit Idn nln ty trpng thuy di|n trong CO ciu c6ng suit c6 xu hUdng giim xu6ng. Ty trpng giim tvl 51,9% nam 2000 xudng c6n 32,8% nim 2008. Tinh hinh sin xuit di|n vi cO ciu di|n giai dp?n 2001-2009 nhu sau (bing 1).
Bing 1: Tmh hinh sin xulit va co cau dien giai doan 2001 -2009
Ty trpng thu^ d i l n trong cic giai dojn 2011-2030 nhii sau: Theo Quy ho9ch d i | n 7, d l | n ning san xuit giai do»n 2011-2030 phUdng i n phy l i i cd si din n i m 2030 t^ trpng thu^ d i | n chi chilm 8,28%, nlu k l c i n h i p khiu thi thuy diln chilm 12,05%
(bing 2).
4. S^ cin tM6t luamg hoi wi ch<(ng Ifi Mm g l i m f i n xu^t tfiAn n i n g Mi vA cic cdn9 trinh thu9 d i i n cb n h i i m vu c;hi$ng l i i ( g l i m thitfu i n h htfjmg cOa m 661 vdi ha lUu
Hi|n nay c6 2 c6ng trinh thuy di|n sijf dyng tdng h0p (da muc tilu) dd Ii thu^ di|n Cijta Dat trln sdng Chu « Thanh Hoi cd phin chia chi phi diu tU ddi vdi nhilm vy chdng lu vi cip niJdc h? lUu; thuy di|n Rio Quin trln sdng Rip Quin tinh Quing Trj cd phin chia vdn cho nhilm vy cip nUdc cho ha lifti.
N a m D i l n n a n g S X ( G W h ) P m a x h e t h d n g ( M W ) Thiiy d i e n ( G W h ) T y t r p n g d i e n n a n g t h u y d i | n ( % )
2 0 0 1 3 1 1 3 8
5 6 5 5 1 8 1 7 0 5 8 , 4
2 0 0 2 3 6 4 1 1
6 5 5 2 18205 SO
2 0 0 3 4 1 2 7 5
7 4 0 8 1 9 0 0 4 4 6
2 0 0 4 4 7 1 3 6
8 3 7 6 1 7 9 6 8 3 8 , 4
2 0 0 S 5 3 4 1 1
9 2 5 5 1 6 4 3 2 3 0 , 6
2 0 0 6 6 0 5 3 4 1 0 1 8 7 1 9 5 7 3 3 2 , 3
2 0 0 7 6 8 7 0 0 1 1 2 8 6 2 2 4 3 8 3 2 , 7
2 0 0 8 7 5 9 5 5 1 2 6 3 6 2 4 9 4 4 3 2 , 8
2009 87019 13867 29977 34,4 Nguon: Quy hoach phdt triln tfi^n liTc Vift Nam giai doan 2011 -2020 c6 x^t triln vong din ndm 2030 (Quy ho^ch d Bing 2: Di^n nang sdn xul^t giai doan 2011 -2030 QHO 7 - PT car sd (GWh)
N a m
2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 GhUhO:
T d n g n h u c i u 1 1 5 7 7 8 1 3 2 4 1 4 1 5 0 9 1 1 1 7 1 3 8 9 1 9 4 3 0 3 2 1 8 7 9 8 2 4 4 3 3 5 2 7 1 1 5 1 2 9 9 4 4 9 3 2 9 4 1 2 4 8 9 6 2 1 6 9 5 1 4 7 (11:T0TN-t
T d n g d i l n SX 1 1 5 7 7 7 1 3 2 4 1 4 1 5 0 9 1 0 1 7 1 3 8 9 1 9 4 3 0 3 2 1 8 7 9 7 2 4 4 3 3 5 2 7 1 1 5 1 2 9 9 4 4 9 3 2 9 4 1 2 4 8 9 6 2 1 6 9 5 1 4 7 uytfiSntichr
C i n d d i t h a a ( + ) , t h i l u ( - ) -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 i n g ; (2): Khiu
T h u y d i | n ttis d i | n c h o
T D T N ( 1 ) 3 7 5 5 3 4 2 2 4 9 4 8 7 3 1 5 0 1 6 6 5 4 3 8 1 5 5 0 4 5 5 7 3 2 0 5 9 9 5 2 6 0 4 9 9 5 9 9 8 9 5 9 8 3 3 5 7 5 7 2 g tfnh n h i p khiu
T y t r p n g t h u y d i | n
(%)
3 2 , 4 4 3 1 , 9 1 3 2 , 2 9 2 9 , 2 7 2 7 , 9 9 2 5 , 1 6 2 3 , 4 6 2 2 , 1 1 2 0 , 2 0 1 8 , 2 1 1 2 , 2 2 8,28 Aml^nTVunj
N h i p k h i u t h u y
d i l n ( 2 ) 2 2 6 9 2 2 6 9 2 2 6 9 2 2 9 7 3 3 6 5 4 1 3 3 4 1 9 5 5 1 2 1 5 8 3 7 6 5 5 3 I 5 3 0 S 2 6 2 2 4
T h u y d i l n trong Ttti&c v i n h | p k h i u
3 9 8 2 2 4 4 5 1 8 5 1 0 0 0 5 2 4 6 3 5 7 7 4 6 5 9 1 7 8 6 1 5 1 5 6 5 0 7 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 6 5 4 2 7 5 1 3 8 8 3 7 9 6
T y trpng
(%)
34,40 33,62 33,79 30,61 29,72 27,05 25,18 24,00 22,15 20,20 15,35 12,05 <
.:^
[14] NANGH/aNeVliTNAH/l Sd83(2/2012)
C6n cdc cong trinh 16n nhfl thu^ dien Sdn Laj Hok Binh, Tuydn Quang, Ban Ve (Ngh^ An) vdi nhi?m vy chdng lu quan trpng bac nhat d6i vdi h? Iflu ma vi?c thflc hiln nhi?m vu do Anh hfldng Idn din san xult di^n vin xem nhfl nhiem vy c6ng ich chfla dfl(?c Ifli^ng hod.
Theo ca nhan ngfldi vift, nen Ifldng hod di dk dang thong cam vdi ngdnh Di^n (T^p dodn Di^n Iflc Vi^t Nam) ngay cang khd khan vi v6n mudn dflijc tang gid di^n nhiing cung c6 nhieu vin di.
Theo Quy hoach b^c thang thuy di^n sdng Dd, sdng Ld - Gdm vd thilt k l ky thuit thuy di^n Sdn La, Tuyen Quang... thi dung tich phdng lu cua cdc cdng trinh nhfl sau: Hod Binh 3 ty m3, Sdn La 4 ty m^ (tdng bde thang thu^ diln song Da 7 ty m^, Tuyin Quang 1 ty m^ Thdc Ba 0,5 t ^ m ' . . .
Ludn chflng kinh t l - ky thu|t cdng trinh thuy diln Hod Binh (nam 1972) da cho ring d l chdng lu hg Iflu vdi dung tich phdng lu 5 ty m^ hang nam ldm gidm diln nang khodng 1,0-1,5 tykWh.
Theo Bdo cdo tham dinh Quy hogch bde thang thuy di?n sdng Da do Tnmg tam Khoa hpc Tfl nhien va Cdng nghe Qudc gia lap nam 2001 thi:
- Vdi phfldng an dung tich phdng lu 7 ty m^ diln nang todn bac thang sdng Dd Id 23.804,9 trieu kWh.
- Vdi phfldng an dung tich phdng lu 10 ty m^' dien nang todn baic thang sdng Da la 21.642,8 trilu kWh.
Tflc Id tang dung tich phdng lu lln 3 t^ m^ lam diln nang gidm din 2,162 ty kWh. Vdi gid di|n 1.000 d/
kWh thi thiet hai se II 2162,11^ ddng.
Nln tinh todn tdng diln Iflg^ng khi phdng lu d cac cdng
trinh trln sdng Dd vdi dung tich 7 ty m^, Tuyen Quang 1,0 ty m^ Thdc Bd 0,5 ty m^ vd so sdnh vdi di?n Ifldng khi cdc cdng trinh ndy khdng tham gia phdng lu se khai thdc tang dfldc bao nhilu kWh di^n. Trln cd sd dd se xdc dinh dfl(?c d l ddm bdo nhilm vy chdng lu hg Iflu da ldm tdn bao nhilu kWh diln nang hdng nam, chfla kl nhi^m vy d p nfldc vl mua ki|t. Tfl dd cd thi thIy vi nhiem vy cdng ich ndy md ngdnh Di^n da phdi tdn hao mOt Ifldng tiln hdng nam khdng nhd.
Nhan dly cung can xem xet dung tich phdng 'fl ddi vdi thuy di^n Hod Binh vd thuy diln Sdn La. "Theo Quy hoach bde thang thu^ di^n sdng Dd vd thilt kl ky thudt cdng trinh thuy di?n Sdn La da dflpc phe duylt, tdng dung tich phdng lu cfla 2 cdng trinh nay la 7 ty m^, trong dd Sdn La 4 ty m3, Hod Binh 3 ty m3. Nen xem xit phfldng dn gidm dung tich phdng lu d thu^ di|n Sdn La vd tang dung tich phdng lu d thu^ di|n Hod Binh vdi lydo:
- Dien Ifldng cd bac thang se tang lln: Viec gidm dung tich phdng lu thuy di^n Sdn La vd tdng dung tich phdng lu thuy di|n Hod Binh khdng dnh hfldng din diln nang cua bic thang. Theo Bdo cao phdn bien chinh Dfl an nghien cflu khd thi cdng trinh thuy diln Sdn La (Bdo cdo bd sung cap nhgt) do Trung tim Khoa hpc Tfl nhiln vd Cdng ngh| Qudc gia lap nam 2003 thi (xem bdng dfldi):
Nhfl vdy, khi V, d Sdn La gidm vd tang tfldng flng d Hod Binh thi diln nang todn bac thang tang cd lln nhiJng khdng nhilu. Tuy nhien, cdn thilt tinh todn chuan xac lai ket qud tren kem theo do Id cdp nhdt tai lieu thuy van. Theo y kiln ca nhdn ngfldi vilt thi gid sfl dien nang bac thang sdng Dd cd gidm khi gidm dung tich phdng lu thuy di|n Sdn La vl tang dung tich phdng lu thuy di|n Hod Binh thi cung nen Idm vi:
Phtftfng i n I
n
niCdng trinli Son La Hoi Binh Cdng ScfnLa HoaBhih Cdng Sdn La H o i Binh Cdng
V p l ( t f i n ' ) 4 3 7 3 4 7 2 5 7
Nlm(MW) 2400 1920 4320 2400 1920 4320 2400 1920 4320
EO (GWh) 8.515,0 9.526,0 18.041,0 8.751,0 9.708,0 18.459,0 9.060,0 9.877,0 18.937,0
Sd 83 (2/2012) NANG Ll/ONG VtiTNAJVI [15]
PHAN B I E N - K I E N NGHI
- Tang an todn cho thuy di^n Hod Binh:
+Cdngtrinhthu>'dienHodBinhcdMNDBT=115,00m, cao dd dinh dap 123,00 m (cao hdn MNDBT Id 8,00m), chilu cao dip 128,0 m, loai d^p di(t dd ddt trln ting phu Idng sdng (cdt cupi sdi) siu din trln 60 m, klidng tinh todn trfldng hpp xdy ra lu cflc h^n (PMF) nhfl d Sdn La.
+ Cdng trinh thuy di^n Sdn La MNDBT = 215,00 m, cao dp dinh dip 228,10 m (cao hdn MNDBT Id 13,1m), loai ddp b l tdng trpng Iflc ddt trln nln dd, cd tinh todn vdi lu cflc han vd tilu chuIn dflng rilng.
+ Vdo mua lu (theo quy dinh trfldc diy vdi thuy di^n Hod Binh Id tfl 01/6 din 02/9) vdi phfldng dn dung tich phdng lu d thuy di|n Sdn La nhd hdn 4 ty m' (vi du 3 ty m') cdn d thuy di|n Hod Binh tdng lln (tdng dung tich phdng lu cua 2 hd ndy nhfl dd nlu Id 7 ty m^). Nhfl vay thuy di|n Sdn La dflpc tich nfldc vdi dung tich thim 1 ty m^ khi xdy ra bdt trie cd lu Idn (cd the Id lu cflc han) Hod Binh an todn hdn do mflc nfldc phdng lu thlp hdn, nen dung Vpl nay d l tich lu.
Gap nhflng nam it nfldc do dfl bdo khdng chinh xdc, vile tich nfldc d hd Sdn La vfla cd ldi cho Sdn La vfla cd Idi cho Hod Binh.
Vi may ly do tren ngfldi viet cho rang gidm dung tich phdng lu d thuy dien Sdn la vd tang dung tieh phdng lu d thuy diln Hod Binh vfla tang dien nang vfla an todn cho thuy dien Hod Binh, cung Id tang an todn cho ha du.
Van de nay cdn xem xet tinh todn cy thi.
5. Quan ly van hanh cac nha may thuy dien
Bp Tdi nguyin vd Mdi trfldng da ed quy dinh ve Quy trinh van hdnh hd chfla. Theo do, cac hd chfla thuy di?n vdi dung tich tfl 1 trilu m3 trd len phdi dflpc Bp Cdng Thfldng phe duylt quy trinh vdn hdnh vd dfldi 1 trilu m3 do Sd Cdng Thfldng phi duyet quy trinh van hdnh.
D l nghi phd bien cho dia phfldng vd ngfldi ddn ha Iflu dfl an dfldc biet vd phdi hdp vdi chu dau tfl thflc hi|n.
Cung can xdc dinh vdi cdng trinh thuy diln Idn, vfla vd nhd khdng bao gid giy nln Iii Idn hdn lu tfl nhien (khdng cd hd dip). VIn de d day Id chfla cd sfl phdi h(?p hieu qud gifla chinh quyln, ddn vi van hdnh hd chfla va ngfldi din trong cdng tac phdng vd chdng lu.
6. Van d£ moi trUdng ha iUu cong trinh thuy tfi^n
Phin Idn cdc cdng trinh thuy di$n chi x6t din dnh hfldng tich ci,fc chdng lii, d p nfldc,... nhflng chfla xem xit tdc ddng tilu ci^c d l cd bi$n phdp phdng ngfla, dac bi^t Id ddi vdi cdc cdng trinh thuy di^n Idn (dung tich hd Idn) giG I?i phfl sa trln hd chfla giy xdi Id hg Iflu.
Luin chflng kinh t l - ky thu^t cdng trinh thuy di^n Hod Binh da nlu nhilu vin d l vl hg Iflu cd t h i tac dpng tilu cflc nhfl xdi Idng sdng tfl Hod Binh din Hd Ndi, dit ven sdng se (t mdu md,... di^ kiln vin hdnh thuy di^n Hod Binh, Idng sdng bj xdi siu din 6,0m ngay tai cdng trinh, 1,5m tai Sdn Tdy vd 0,5m d gin Ha Ndi- Vin dl ndy cin nghiin cflu, quan trie Idu ddi d l xdc djnh chinh xac vd cd gidi phdp phu hdp-
Nhfl bdo chi da dfla tin, do y kiln cua nhilu nhd khoa hpc vd cdc nfldc ven sdng nen thuy di§n Xayaboury trln ddng chinh sdng Ml Kdng (hg Iflu sdng Ml Kdng d Vi|t Nam dflpc gpi Id sdng Cflu Long) dd phii tam dflng.
Nam 1987, Vy ban Ml Kdng qudc t l da dfla ra phfldQg dn khai thdc tliuy diln trln sdng M l Kdng theo phfldng dn Run of river hydropower (theo phfldng an thuy d i ^ sfl dyng ddng chdy cd ban (dilu tilt ngdy). Khdng nln xay dflng cdc cdng trinh trln sdng Me Kdng cd quy mo dung tich Idn Idm dnh hfldng din mdi trfldng sinh thai hgdu.
7. Ket ludn
Mac du ty trpng thuy di|n trong cd clu ngudn ngdy cdng gidm, nhflng vdi sfl dau tfl phdt trien hdn 20 nam qua da tgo nln mpt loai ngudn diln ed hi|u qud kinh t l cao va ngay cdng t h i hiln vai trd ddi vdi d p dien.
Dilu quan trpng can quan tam hi?n nay Id viec sii dung tdng hpp eua loai cdng trinh diln ndy, d|c biet Id chdng lu, d p nfldc mua ki^t cho ha du ddng bang sdng Hdng, sdiig Ma, sdng Ca; bd sung ngudn nfldc vdo mua ki?t ddi vdi thuy d i | n Idn vd vfla d duyen hdi miln Trung vd miln Ddng Nam bd; tham gia dly mgn vd tao thdm thflc vdt long hd ciing nhfl cdc ldi ich khac.
Vin de dat ra la d n quan tim din viec dilu van cac h.6 chfla Idn vd vfla nham dam bdo hdi hod Idi ich giifa cdc myc tieu cung nhfl nghiin cflu nhflng tdc ddng tilu ciic cho vimg hd vd ha du cfla cle cdng trinh thuy dien Idn va vfla d l ed bi?n phdp gidm thilu.
[16] NANG LUONG VIET NAM Sd 83 (2/2012)
