TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHi NANG LUONG - TRl/CfNG DAI HQC DIEN Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) 1
MO HINH DIJ BAO PHU TAI NGAN HAN DLTA TREN MANG NORON NHAN TAO K^T HOP THUAT TOAN DI TRUYEN
IMPLEMENTATION OF GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR AN ANN-BASED SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING MODEL
Pham Manh Hai, Vu Thj A n h T h o ' \ Pham Van Duy^
^TriK/ng Dai hoc Dien lire, ^Trung tam Nang Iwcmg mai va tai t$o
Tom tat:
Bai bao mo ta mot mo hinh du* bao phu tai dUpc phat trien dUa tren mang ndron nhan tao (ANN).
Trong mo hinh nay, thuat toan di truyen dUdc nhung trong qua trinh hpc cua mang ndron. Cac ket qua va toe dp tfnh toan ciia mo hinh dUpc kiem chuYig thong qua so sanh vdi thuat toan ian truyen ngUdc.
TCr khoa:
DU bao phu tai ngan han, dU bao phu tai dien ngay, thuat toan di truyen, thuat toan ian truyen ngupc, mang ndron nhan tao.
Abstract:
This article describes a short-term load forecasting (STLF) model which developed on an artificial neural network (ANN). Using basic genetic algorithm (GA) in the learning process of ANN is tested and compared with the Back-Propagation algorithm (BP) about the error and the execution time.
Keywords:
Short-term load forecasting, genetic algorithm, back-propagation algorithm, artifical neural network.
1. GIOI THIEU CHUNG dung mang n a ron nhan tao mot lop an d6 Trong nhttng nam gta day, tinh hinh du bao phv tai ngay cua thanh ph6 Ha Ngi nghien cuu trong llnh vuc du bao phu tai ™ « • * '»™ "^^ y«" ' ^ t h « tiet nhu: nhiet ngan han (STLF) dang ngay cang phat ^^ ™ ^^ ^m. Cung giai thuat nhu cac tac tri&i dS dap ung nhu cJu dam bao cung » * " « " • <*<= » * ^ h u Nghia [3] thuc hien cap dien an toan va lien tac. Trong nu6c "ghien cuu STLF cho phu tai Mien Bac.
CO thS k l dSn mot s6 cong trinh nghien ™ n the gioi, cac nghien cuu ve STLF ' ,.• • ' - r - T y n i . ' • ' - duoc coug bo roug rai va rat da dang ve cuu cua tac gia Tran Ky Phuc va cac cong v 5 . & . &
r n r-.T -T' •' .*- u— ' ' „ phuong phap. Engle va cong su [4] trinh su [1], [2]. Tac gia da nghien cuu img ^ S F F & . & . L J
bay mpt so mo hinh hoi quy de du bao Ngay nhan bai: 16/5/2017, ngay chap nhan dang: p h u tai ngay h o m sau. Cac m o h i n h nay 3/10/2017, phan bien: TS. Tran Thanh Sdn.
So 13 thang 11-2017 2 1
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T<?LP CHi KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE NANG LUCfNG ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 V )ket hap cac anh huong c6 dinh nhu ngay 16, anh huong ng§u nhien nhu cong suat tnmg bmh va anh huong ngoai lai nhir thai tiet. Tuy nhien, mo hinh duac de xuat chi phu hop voi phu tai dang dupe nghien cuu. Cac phuong phap hoi quy duprc nghien cuu rpng rai va duoc coi nhu mpt trong nhimg phuong phap truyen thong, cac tac gia khac nhau se c6 nhimg thay doi khac nhau trong mo hinh hoi quy de giam thieu sai so [5]-[7]. Mpt so tac gia da mo ta va trien khai ung dung mo hinh ARMA (tu hoi quy ket hop trung binh truot), ARIMA (tu hoi quy tich hpp trung bmh truot vai cac bi6n ngoai lai) nhu Fan va McDonald [8]. Cho va cong sir [9]
phat trien cac mo hinh nay bang viec trien khai cac mo hinh ARIMAX.
Thoi gian gkn day, cac ky thuat, phuong phap du bao dua tren mang no ron nhan tao dupe nghien cuu rat nhieu. Kien tnic ANN pho bien nhat de du bao phu tai dien la Ian truyen ngupc (BP). Mang nay so sanhlientuc gia tri ham muc tieu da xac dinh sau moi vong lap va theo luat hpc c6 giam sat. Ben canh do, ANN vdi luat hpc khong giam sat cung da dupe khai thac kha nhieu vi uu diem khong can huan luyen truoc khi hoat dpng. Bakirtzis va cac cong su [10] da phat trien mot mo hinh dy bao tai ngan ban ANN cho mpt cong ty 6 Hy Lap. Hp sir dung mang ANN ba lap an va thuat toan BP dS hukn luyen noron. Cac biSn dau vao bao gom cac dii lieu qua khu cua phu tai hang gia va nhiet dp cua cac ngay trong tuan. Mo hinh nay c6 thg du bao phu tai tir 1-7 ngay. Papalexopoulos va cac cong su [11]
da phat trien va thuc hien mpt mang ANN
• TRlldNG DAI HOC DI^N LLTC
nhieu lap an cho STLF. Trong cac mo hinh ma nhom tac gia da thii nghiem, ba loai bien duoc su dung Iam dau vao cho cac mang ANN: yen to mua, thai tiet va so lieu phu tai qua khii. Khotanzad va cong su [12] mo ta mpt mo hinh du bao phu tai duoc gpi la ANNSTLF. Hp su dung cac mang ANN nhieu lop dang Perception de huan luyen vai thuat toan BP. Mo hinh ANNSTLF nay c6 thi xem xet cac tac dong cua nhiet dp va dp am tuong doi vao phu tai. Dong thai, no c6 the du bao nhiet dp va dp am theo gio.
Day la mpt cai tien cua nhom tac gia so vdi nhimg nghien cuu khac. Hien tai, ANNSTLF bao g6m hai chuc nang du bao: du bao phu tai c a so va du bao phu tai thay doi. Du bao cuoi cung dupe tinh bang each ket hpp hai phkn du bao nay.
Anh huong cua dp am va toe dp gio dupe coi nhu CO quan he tuyen tinh vai nhiet dp. Cho den nay, mo hinh nay da duoc sir dung boi hon 35 cong ty ban dien tai Bac My. Rat nhieu nghien cuu su dung mang no ron nhan tao kh hop vai cac ky thuat khac nhu du bao chuoi thoi gian la logic mo [13], [14].
Gan day, viec ap dung mang noron hoi quy ket hap mpt so phuang phap tien hoa da tro nen pho bien voi bai toan STLF va thu dupe ket qua kha quan nhu voi thuat toan di truyen (GA) [15], thuat toan bay dan (PSO) [16]-[18]. Vi nhimg Ipi the trien vpng cua thuat toan GA cua nhiJng nghien cuu tren vdi cac doi tupng khac, bai bao nay trinh bay nghien cuu ap dung GA doi voi phu tai khu vuc Ha Noi nham xac minh tinh toi uu ciia thuat toan nay.
Cau tnic ciia bai bao gom 5 phan:
22
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/CfNG - TRUdNG DAI HOC DIEN Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 S 5 9 - 4 5 B 7 ) I Muc 1: Gioi thieu chung.
Muc 2 trinh bay ve mo hinh giai thuat bai toan du bao phu tai ngan han.
Muc 3 gioi thieu thuat toan GA diing huan luyen mang noron nhan tao va ung dung trong Matlab.
Muc 4 dua ra cac so sanh ket qua khi dung thuat toan GA va thuat toan BP. Sau do ling dung GA huan luy8n mang noron de du bao phu tai 24h cho ngdy cu the.
Miic 5 la mpt so ket luan ve sai so, kha nang cai thien ciia thuat toan GA.
2. MO HiNH GlAl THUAT BAI TOAN DLf BAO PHU T A I N G A N HAN
Hien nay c6 3 mo hinh chinh de d\r bao phu tai ngan han:
• Mo hinh 1: mo hinh ket hpp dy bao dinh, day do thi phu tai va hinh dang do thi phu tai;
• Mo hinh 2: mo hinh du bao dong thoi 24h cua ngay can du bao;
• Mo hinh 3: mo hinh du bao timg gio ciia ngay can dy bao.
Moi mo hinh neu tren d6u c6 uu va nhuoc diem rieng, tuy nhien, trong bai bao nay, nhom tac gia su dung mo hinh 1 de dy bao vi trong mo hinh nay c6 xet den sy phan loai ngay dpc l^p voi nhiem vu dy bao dinh va day do thi phu tai. Mo hinh giai thuat dy bao phu tai trong nghien ciiu nay dupe bieu dien nhu tren hinh 1. Trong do, de tap trung vao muc dich ling dung thuSt toan toi uu GA, mo hinh khong mo ta phuong phap phan loai ngay ma sir dung ket qua phan loai ngay da thyc hien.
Hinh 1: M6 hinh giai thuat dir bao phu tai 24h trong ngay dirov su' dung.
Thuat toan toi IFU du-o-c si> dung bao gom ca GA va BP Voi hinh dang (biet duoc cac gia tri quy
ddi Pn(i)), phu tai dinh (Pmax) va phu tai day (Pmin). chiing ta c6 the xay dyng duoc do thi phu tai ngay can du bao bang cong t h u c q u y d 6 i [ 3 ] , [19]:
Pnd) - Pi-Pm.
(1) Trong do:
P„{iy. Phu tai quy doi tuong limg gio thu ;;
So 13 thang 11-2017
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TAP CHI KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE NANG US0NG ( I S S N : 1 S 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 )• TRL/dNG DAI HQC DIEN LLTC
P,: Phu tai thyc te gio thii i;
Pmax, Pmm'- Phu tai dinh, day trong ngay.
3. THUAT TOAN GA DUNG H U A N LUYEN ANN VA LTNG DUNG TRONG MATLAB
3.1. Thuat toan GA
Lua chpn cac (A the thich nghi cao de sinh san 1 ^ quan the mdi Dung
Sinh san bang c^ch lai ghep hoan doi cheo t ^ qu3n the moi
Dam bao tinh (v nhien b ^ g dgt biSi trong quin the in6i
Hinh 2. Scr do khoi thuat toan GA dm\ gian SCF dung trong phu-vng phap dif bao
Nhu da mo ta 6 phan gioi thieu chung, o day, voi muc dich kiem chung tinh tdi urn cua GA cho doi tupng cu the la phu tai dien trong ngay ciia thanh ph6 Ha Noi,
chiing toi sir dung thuat toan GA don gian vdi cau tnic gom 4 toan tir co ban: tai tao, lai ghep, dot bien va chpn Ipc. Thuat toan nay bat daw vdi mpt quan the cac chudi va thyc hien tao ra quan the mdi thdng qua 4 toan tir tren. Cac quan the chu6i moi dupe gpi la quan the tien hoa se co dp thich nghi cao hon so vdfi quan the chuoi ban dau. Qua trinh thyc hien thuat toan GA duoc bieu dien theo lim do thuat toan tren hmh 2.
3.2. Lfng dung thudt toan di truyen vao bai toan toi u>u hoa bo trong so cua mang noron
iTng dung thuat toan di truyen vao viec hpc cua mang noron dupe thyc hien thong qua:
• Xay dung ham muc tieu;
• Ma hoa nhiem sac the;
• Thyc hien cac toan tu ciia thuat toan di truyen.
Cac van de nay dupe mo ta chi tiet nhu d duoi.
3.2.1. Xay dyng ham muc tieu Ham muc tieu nay se dupe sii dung de tao nen dp phu hpp cua cac ca the va ciia ca quan the trong thuat toan di truyen.
Nghien ciiu nay sir dyng ham trung binh tong binh phuong 16i MSE ciia tap hpc
P N
E = 47:YY(t„.-ypnr
(2)Trong do:
E: sai so cua qua trinh huan luyen;
24
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH$ NANG l[SQNG - TRl/dNG DAI HQC DI^N Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 S 5 9 - 4 B 5 7 ) | M9 ho^ nhi phan
Hien nay co mpt phuang phap ma hoi nhiem sac the kha noi tieng do Whitley ciing cae cong sy [20] de xuat va dupe gpi la GENITOR. Tuy co nhieu phien ban GENITOR cho din nay nhung ve co ban, mdi trpng so ciia m^ng dupe ma hoa thinh m6t chudi bit nhu hinh 3. hidex-bit de chi ra sy ton tai cua k6t noi (l-c6, O-khong). Chu6i bit nhi phan con lai se bieu diln gia tri cua cac trpng so. Nhom tac gia su dung 8 bit de ma hoa cac gia tri tir -127 dSn +127. Theo phuong phap mS hoa nay, cac toan tir dot bi6n va lai ghep duac thuc hien kha don gian. So bit cang tang, viec ma hoa cang chinh xac. Tuy nhien, viec tang so bit se lam tang chieu dai cua cac nhiem sac the, do do, lam tang thoi gian thuc thi thuat toan.
p, P: so thii tu mau va tong so mau trong t^p huSn luyen;
n, N: so thii tu cua moi dau ra va tong so dau ra;
tpn va yp„: dau ra mong muon va dSu ra thyc te ciia mang cho dau ra thu « tuong ling m l u thii ;7.
3.2.2. Ma hoa nhiem sac the Trong thuSt toan dupe xay dyng, mSi ca the dupe hieu la mpt bO trpng s6 ciia mang noron. O day, chiing toi khong phan biet trpng s6 nao 6 lop nao ma chi can trai toan b6 trpng s6 len so dd gen ciia nhiem sac the. Viec ma hoa nhiem sac the c6 tac dung tang toe cho qua trinh tinh toan, chinh vi vay, phuang phap ma hoa nhiSm sac the dupe nghien ciiu rat nhieu. Co hai each ma hoa dupe su dung nhi6u:
1 r
OIOOOOOI i 10001111
l O l l O l l O lOOIOIOOO
Hinh 3. Bieu d i l n ma hoa nhj phSn
Ma h o i so thyc cac trpng sd bang cac so thyc. Ly do duoc , , , . , ^ T-» ^7- dua ra cho viec nay la nham dam bao do L khac, Montana D. Va , , , , / , , . , , , Mpt nhom tac gia I
Davis L. [21] d§ d^ xudt mS hoa true tiep chinh xdc cua phep ma hok ciing nhu So 13 thang 11-2017
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TAP CHI KHOA HQC VA CONG NGH$ NANG Ll/ONG - TRUdNG ©AI HOC DIEN LL/C ( I S S N : 1 B 5 S - 4 5 5 7 )giam kich thuoc nhiem sac th8, do do, ciing giam thoi gian thyc thi thuat toan.
Thuat toan sit dung phuong phap ma boa so thuc thong thuong se don gian hon, phu hpp voi nhung nghien cuu kiem chung cac thuat toan. Chinh vi vay, bai bao nay ciing su dyng phuang phap ma boa so thuc de thyc hien ma hoa trpng so.
Cac trpng so (hay cac gen ciia nhiem sSc the) dupe khdi tao nglu nhiSn trong khoang (-3,+3).
Hinh 4. Bieu dien ma hoa so t h i ^ 3.2.3. Phuxmg phap lai ghep Ngay hi nhimg nghien ciiu dSu tien vh GA, hai phuang phap lai ghep quan trpng da dupe dua ra: lai ghep trpng s6 (crossover-weights) va lai ghep nut (crossover-nodes). Lai ghep trpng s6 se dua vao mdi vj tri ciia nhiem sac the con (mpt each nglu nhien) mpt gia trj tuong img ciing vi tri fren nhilm sSc thi eha hoac me. Lai ghep nut dupe thyc hien giira cac niit cung vi tri cua nhilm sac thS eha va me. Khi hai niit tai mot lap nao do dupe lai ghep, cac trpng s6 cua tSt ca cac lien ket dau vao toi cac niit do se duoc hoan vi cho nhau. Bi dan gian boa eac
tinh toan, bai bao sii dung phuong phap lai ghep trpng so.
3.2.4. Phwomg phap dgt bien Theo ly thuyet ma Montana D va Davis L [21] dua ra, chiing ta eo 2 kieu dot biln:
Dot bien trpng so (mutate weights) va dot bien niit (mutate nodes). Trong khuon khd bai bao, nhom tac gia chi sii dung phuang phap dot biSn trpng so de thii nghiem thuat toan. Tuy nhien, trong dot bien trpng so ciing can phan biet 2 kieu dot bien khac nhau:
Unbiased
Moi gen dupe chpn dot bien ngau nhien se dupe thay dil bang 1 gia fri nglu nhien xung quanh gia tri 0.
Biased
Moi gen dupe chon dot biln nglu nhien se dupe cong them mpt gia tri ngau nhien.
Trong nghien ciru eua Montana va cong sy, phuong phap Biased cho k6t qua tdt hon.
4. LPNG DUNG THUAT TOAN CAVA BP CHO BAI TOAN STLF
4.1. Xay dM'ng giao dien chu'O'ng trinh Trong bai bao nay, nhom tac gia sit dung c6ng cu ANN duoc tich hap hong Matlab phien ban R2015b. Nhom tac gia sii dung cong cu GUI de xay dung mpt giao dien hoan chinh nhSm lam don gian hoa vi^c irng dung eac thuat toan eho bai toan STLF. Qua giao dien nay, nguoi su dung CO the thyc hien cac muc dich du bao vdi cac doi tupng khac cua rieng minh. Giao dien chuong trinh duoc th^ hien nhu hinh 5.
2 6
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG N G H | NANG Ll/pNG - TRI/6NG DAI HOC DIEN LL/C I ( I S B N : 1 3 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) I
rtii Load F o r e c d i l i n q A K N - C A AppUcWIOn
Neuidl N e M o r k T r a m > « ^
-. y
F o r e o s t i n g T y p e
Hinh 5. Giao di^n chinh cua chuwmg trinh di^ bao STLF Cac chiic nang chinh cua chuong trinh
bao gom:
IMethode (Chon phirorng phap d u b^o) Nhom tac gia xay dung 2 lya chpn de tien viec ddi chieu va so sanh: Back- Propagation va Genetic Algorithm.
Push to train
Huan luyen mang de thu dupe bp trpng so toiim.
Forecasting Type
Lya chpn doi tuong dy bao (dinh hoac day) ciia do thi phu tai ngay.
Forecasting day Lya chpn ngay can du bao.
Graph Plotting v^ Xls Export Ve do thi so sanh va trich xuat du lieu.
Forecast
Dy bao dinh (hoac day) cho ddi tupng da lya chpn vdi bp trpng so da dupe huan luyen.
4.2. Cau hinh mang va thong so thu|lt toan GA
Cau true mang ANN:
• Mang truyen thang;
• So dau vao: 13;
• Sodaura: 1;
• So lop an: 1;
• S d n o r o n l(ip An: 5;
Thong s6 thuSt toan GA:
• Kich thuoc quan the trpng s6: 100;
• Kich thuoc ciia 1 ca the: 76;
• Sdthahe: 100;
• Ham muc tieu: MSE;
• Phuang phap lai ghep: Lai ghep nut;
• Phuong phap dot bien: Biased (0,1).
4.3. DO lieu dau vao cho mang ANN Dii lieu dau vao de huan luyen mang la cac phu tai ngay eua thang 5 nam 2014 cua Tong Cong ty Dien lye Ha Noi.
So 13 thang 1 1 - 2 0 1 7
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TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG N G H | NANG Ll/(?NG - TRl/dNG DAI HOC DIEN Ll/C ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 V )Trong do, vdi dy bao dinh, ta sir dung cac dau vao duoc to chuc nhu trong cae diJ lieu P„ax. imax---', VOI du bao day, ta su bang sau:
dung cae dii lieu P^m tmm--- Cac dii lieu
Bang 1. Di> lieu dau vao cho dy* bao phu tai dinh Thiit
Nam Sau Bdy CN Hai Ba T\I Nam Sau Bay CN Hal Ba TU Nam Sau Bay CN Hai Ba Tl!
Nam Sau Bay CN Hai Ba TU Nam Sau Bay
Ngiy 1/5/2014 2/5/2014 3/5/2014 4/5/2014 5/5/2014 6/5/2014 7/5/2014 8/5/2014 9/5/2014 10/5/2014 11/5/2014 12/5/2014 13/5/2014 14/5/2014 15/5/2014 16/5/2014 17/5/2014 18/5/2014 19/5/2014 20/5/2014 21/5/2014 22/5/2014 23/5/2014 24/5/2014 25/5/2014 26/5/2014 27/5/2014 28/5/2014 29/5/2014 30/5/2014 31/5/2014
m
30 31 30 32 26 26 27 30 36 40 37 32 36 39 36 34 35 36 33 34 37 38 37 38 36 33 34 33 33 35 35TO
26 30 31 30 32 26 26 27 30 36 40 37 32 36 39 36 34 35 36 33 34 37 38 37 38 36 33 34 33 33 35
(°C) 31 30 32 27 27 28 26 30 31 30 32 26 26 27 30 36 40 37 32 36 39 36 34 35 36 33 34 37 38 37 38
PTT (MW) 1538 1471 1689 1694 1749 1883 1963 1989 1980 2094 1949 1949 2026 2169 2190 2284 2126 1923 1771 2074 2098 2358 2323 2437 2239 1862 2219 2181 2031 2180 2250
(MW) 2230 2201 2104 1801 2021 1902 1538 1471 1689 1694 1749 1883 1963 1989 1980 2094 1949 1949 2026 2169 2190 2284 2126 1923 1771 2074 2098 2358 2323 2437 2239
Ntf ron ma hoa ngay 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rf Li. 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 j 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
u
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
u
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
TAP CHI KHOA HQC VA CONG NGH$ NANG Ll/ONG - TRL/lilfNG OAI HQC OIIN Ll^C I ( I S S N : i a 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ] l Bang 2. DCF lif U dau vdo cho d v bao phu tai day
Thir Nam Sau Bay CN Hai Ba Tu Nam Sau B i y CN Hai Ba TU Nam
Sau Bay CN Hai Ba TU Nam
Sau B i y CN Hal Ba TU Nam Sau Bay
Ngay 1/5/2014 2/5/2014 3/5/2014 4/5/2014 5/5/2014 6/5/2014 7/5/2014 8/5/2014 9/5/2014 10/5/2014 11/5/2014 12/5/2014 13/5/2014 14/5/2014 15/5/2014 16/5/2014 17/5/2014 18/5/2014 19/5/2014 20/5/2014 21/5/2014 22/5/2014 23/5/2014 24/5/2014 25/5/2014 26/5/2014 27/5/2014 28/5/2014 29/5/2014 30/5/2014 31/5/2014
IT"
CO
22 22 23 24 21 21 22 23 25 26 26 25 26 27 28 26 26 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 25
CO
20 22 22 23 24 21 21 22 23 25 26 26 25 26 27 28 26 26 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 27 26 25 25 26 27
CO
26 25 24 22 23 23 20 22 22 23 24 21 21 22 23 25 26 26 25 26 27 28 26 26 25 25 26 27 28 29 28
(MW) 934 745 779 862 898 996 926 984 1067 1023 1203 1203 1369 1319 1457 1696 1174 1469 1599 1151 1451 1580 1678 1889 1909 1657 1472 1412 1257 1463 1516
(MW) 1084 1062 1063 1066 962 1048 934 745 779 862 898 996 926 984 1067 1023 1203 1203 1369 1319 1457 1696 1174 1469 1599 1151 1451 1580 1678 1889 1909
Ntf ron m a hoa ngay 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Trong do, mdi cot du" lieu tir cot 2 den cot 15 la mpt dau vao ciia mang noron (co 13 dau vao):
• Cot 2 d6n 7 cua mdi bang the hien Ian lupt nhiet dp nho nh^t yong ngay, nhiet dp nho (Ion) nhit trong ngay trudc do 1 ngay, nhiet dp nho (Ion) nhat trong ngay truoc do 7 ngay, cdng suat tac dung nho (Ion) nh4t trong ngay truoc do 1 ngay, cong suat tac dung nho (Ion) nhat trong
ng^y truoc do 7 ngay.
• Cot 8 den 15 cua moi bang the hien cac bit ma hoa dae diem ciia ngay hien tai (cot 8: ngay le, cot 9 den 15: ma hoa la ngay nao trong tuan).
4.4. So sdnh ket qua huan luy§n va thir nghiem VOT 2 thuat toan BP va GA Dua tren ket qua thu duoc khi chay thu vdi 2 thuat toan GA va BP, ta co dupe ket qua nhu sau:
So 13 thang 11-2017
I
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA C 6 N G NGH$ NANG Ll/CfNG - T R I / 6 N G DAI HOC OIEN Ll/C ( I S S N : 1 3 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 )Thuit toan BP GA
Bdng 3. <et qua so sanh sai 56 giira Sai s6 du bao dinli (%) Ldnnhat
3,39 3,5
Nho nliat 0,038 0,033
Trung binh 1,17 1,80
lai thuat toan BP va GA Sai so du bao day (%) Ldnnhat
2,69 3,68
Nho nhat 0,0026 0,1
Tnmg binh 0,685
1,84 Voi ket qua sai s6 nhu yen, nh^n thay GA
CO sai s6 khac khong dang ke so vdi BP khi dy bao phu tai dinh. Tuy nhien, dy bao phu tai day lai c6 sai so Ion han ro rang. Viii muc dich de kiem chimg hieu qua cua thuat toan, sai so nay kha di co th^ chap nhan dupe dimg de du bao phu tai 24h cho mpt ngay cu the. Sau day, chung toi se sir dung GA de huan luyen mang noron nhan tao. Sau do, ket hop 3
bude dy bao nhu hinh 1 de dua ra ket qua dy bao chinh thiic cho ngay 23/05/2014.
Muc sai so se dupe danh gia thong qua so sanh vai phu tai thuc te cua ngay 23/05/2014.
4.5. Su> dung phan mem dip bao 24h cho ngay cu th4
4.5.1. So lieu dtp bao dinh va day phu tai ngay 23/05/2014
Ngay 23/05/2014
Bang 4. Ket qua dip bao dinh.
T„,.-, 28
T ^ - i 38
T.„., 26
T „ j - 7 34
P,m-1 1678
day phM tai ngay 23/05/2014
Pm,-1 2323
Pm,-7 1174
P„<-7 2126
Tn,m 29
T ^ 37
P™.d
23/0
1887 p ^
23/0
2402
So lieu de dy bao dinh va day phu tai cho ngay 23/02/2014 c6 2 thong s6 chiu anh hudng ciia don vi khac (Trung tam Khi tuang Thity van Quoc gia): nhiet dp Idn nhat trong ngay va nhiet dp nho nhat trong ngay. Tuy nhien, dk ki^m chimg sai so cua thu§t toan, chung toi khdng sir dyng nhiet dp du bao vao thoi diem do ma su dimg chinh nhiet dp thuc td d8 giam hot sai so anh hudng boi sai so dy bao nhiet dp ciia don vi khac.
4.5.2. Kit qua dvp bAo hinh dang do thj phu tai
Chiing toi sir dung s6 lieu phu tai 24h ciia
5 ngay gan nhat cimg kieu ngay vdi ngay 23/05/2014: tu ngay 15/05, 16/05, 20/05, 21/05 va 22/05 (ngay 19/05 khong sii dung vi la ngay sinh nhat Bac Ho - phy tai thay ddi bit thuong). Hinh 6 the hien hinh dang do thi php tai da chuan hoa cua 5 ngay nay.
Hinh dang chuSn hoa do thi phu tai ngay 23/05/2014 dupe iky theo gia tri hung binh cua 4 ngay: 15/05, 16/05, 20/05, 22/05. Ngay 21/05 bi loai bo vi co mot di6m khac la v^o 8h khi^n cho hinh dang d6 thi phu tai khong con eung ki6u ngay vdi 4 ngay con lai.
TAP CHI KHOA HQC VA C 6 N G NGHE NANG LLTQNG - TRL/(i^NG DAI HOC D I | N L ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 -
Hinh 6. Hinh dang chuan hoa cua do thj phi^ tai ngay 23/05/2014 d i ^ tren cac ngay ciing l<ieu gan nhat 4.5.3. Ket qua dtp bao phu tai ngan han phu tai, chiing toi ti6n hanh quy ddi phu 24h ngay 23/05/2014 tai theo cong thuc 1 de co dupe kk qua Sau khi co dupe ket qua du bao phu tai ^V bao nhu sau:
dinh, day va hinh dang chuan hoa do thi
Bang 4. Ket qua d ^ bao phu tai 24h cOa ng^y 23/05/2014 Ngay
23/05/2014 Thcri diem
(h) Phy tai d\r bao (MW) Phu tai thirc tl (MW) Thai diem (h) Phy tai dir bao (MW) Phu tai thuc
ti (MWJ T . , . j
28 1
1887,0
1889,0
13
2278,4
2366,3 T„„./
38 2
1974,9
2010,7
14
2355,6
2389,4 T „ . 7
26 3
1942,0
1989,8
15
2390,0
2356,6 T„„.7
34 4
1898,2
1931,0
16
2365,6
2317,7 P„,.j
1678 5
1916,3
1889,0
17
2358,4
2247,0 PTO-7
2323 6
1949,7
1915,1
18
2336,6
2225,0 P™-7 1174 7
1997,3
1943,7
19
2402,0
2382,0 P _ 7 2126 8
2168,5
2164,5
20
2317,8
2251,3 T , „
29 9
2288,7
2294,2
21
2369,7
2312,4 T „
37 10
2393,0
2437,0
22
2333,3
2328,3 Pinm(/(r
1S87
11
2388,3
2437,0
23
2242,1
2303,8 PmariTir
Mo 2402
12
2270,6
2328,6
24
2109,6
2170,5
Voi kit qua du bao nay, chung ta co the liic 18h, sai so nho nhat 0,11% vao Iiic Ih quan sat sai s6 giti-a thuc te va du bao theo va sai s6 trung binh ciia ngay la 2,05%.
do thi hinh 7. Voi sai so trung binh nay, ket qua du bao Nhan thdy, sau khi kk hop 3 buoc dS dir ' ^ '=6 * S chip nhan dugc va nam trong bao hoan chinh cho ngay cu thS pham vi cho phep ve sai so du bao phu tai (23/05/2014), sai sa Ion nhdt 5,02% vao "S^y ciia Quy trinh du bao phu tai dien
So 13 thang 11-2017
I
TAP CHi KHOA HQC VA CONG N G H | NANG Ll/QNG - TRL/dNG OAI HQC DIEN LL/C { I H S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 )qu6e gia. Cac sai so Ian hay nho xuat hien khong phu thupe gio cao diem hay thap diSm. Dien hinh trong cac gidf cao di6m budi tdi (18h-20h), sai s6 nho nhAt 0,84%
vao 19h va Idn nhat 5,02 vao 18h. Vi vay, kha nang du bdo cua thuat toan de xu4t khdng bi giai han boi sy thay doi d^c di6m phu tai theo gid.
2.40
2TS 1.81 '
235
2.4803 2.68 ^*1 1.41 1.42
3 4 5 e 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 2D 21 22 23 24
Hinh 7. Sai so du- bao so vai thgv t^ phu tai ngay 23/05/2014 5. K£T LUAN
Cac ket qua so sanh cho thSy sai so khi thye thi BP cho kh qua du bao tot han so vai khi sii dung GA don gian dupe mo ta 6 day, tuy nhien, su sai khac la khong dang ke. Mat khac, vdi cimg s6 buoc lap, thu^t todn BP chay nhanh hon GA. Dieu nay ehua khang dinh dupe tinh kem xm vi$t cua thuat toan vi thuat toan GA mdi chi duac xSy dung vdi eac toan tu ca ban vdi myc dich kiem chung thuat toan. Ket
qua dy bao cd the chap nhan dupe ngay 23/05/2014 da cho thiy kha nang c6 th6 cai thien han niia cua GA de ap dung du bao diuc t6. Trong nhiing nghien cuu toi day, nhom tac gia se cai thi6n ket qua dy bao theo hudng ap dyng cac thu3t toan GA c ^ ti8n hoac mpt so thuat to^n tien hoa khae. Mpt huong khac cung rat kha quan la sir dung hdn hop cac thuat toan nham tdi im hoa bp trpng so cung se dupe ki6m chiing.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] T.K. Phuc, N.T.P. Monique Polit, and LT.T. Ha, "Mang ndron - DU bao phu tai dien ngan han ling dung tai Ha Noi, anh hUdng cua cacth6ng sdthdi tiet," Tap cbl Tif dong hoa ngay nay, 2006.
[2] T.K. Phuc, "Nghien culi dhg dung mang nb ron nhan l30 trong dU bao ngan han phu tai dien (giai doan 2)", Bao cao tSng ket de tai nghien cuV khoa hoc cap Bd Cong thuifng, 2008.
[3] C. NghTa, "l^ng dung mang ndron nhan tao di/ bao phu tai ngan han he thong dien mien Bac", LuSn vSn ttiacsy, Dai hpc Bach khoa Ha Noi, 2006.
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TAP CHI KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/ONG - TRlTdNG DAI HOC DIEN LlTC I (ISSN: 1 S 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) 1
[5] O. Hyde and P.F. Hodnett, "An adaptable automated procedure for short-term electricity load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 84-94.
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[7] T. Haida and S. I^'luto, "Regression based peak load forecasting using a transformation
\.&dr\m\\i%" IEEE Trans. Power Syst, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 1788-1794.
[8] J.Y. Fan and J.D. McDonald, "A real-time implementation of short-term load forecasting for distribution power systems," IEEE Trans. f^werSyst., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 988-994.
[9] M.Y. Cho, J.C. Hwang, and C.S. Chen, "Customer short term load forecasting by using ARIMA transfer fdnction model," In Energy Management and Power Delivery, 1995. Proceedings of EMPD'9S., 1995 International Conference on, M0\. 1, pp. 317-322 vol.1.
[10] A.G. Bakirtzis, V. Petridis, S.]. Kiartzis, M.C Alexiadis, and A.H. Maissis, "A neural network short term load forecasting model for the Greek power system," IEEE Trans. Power Syst, vol.
11, no. 2, pp. 858-863.
[11] A. Papalexopoulos and T. Hesterberg, "A regression-based approach to short-term system load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 1535-1547.
[12] A. Khotanzad, R. Afkhami-Rohani, T.L. Lu, A. Abaye, M. Davis, and D.J. Maratukulam,
"ANNSTLF-a neural-network-based electric load forecasting system," IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 835-846.
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2, p. 121, 2002.
So 13 thang 1 1 - 2 0 1 7 3 3
I
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG LL/ONG - TRl/dNG OAI HOC D I | N Ll/C ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 )[20] D. Whitley, T. Starkweather, and C. Bogart, "Genetic algorithms and neural nebworks:
optimizing connections and connectivity," Parallel Comput, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 347-361,1990.
[21] D.J. Montana and L Davis, "Training Feedforward Neural Netiworks Using Genetic Algorithms,"
in Proceedings of the 11th International Joint Conference on Artidcial Intelligence - Volume 1, 1989, pp. 762-767.
Gidi thieu tac gia:
I Tac gia Pham Manh Hai bao ve Luan an tien sT nganh hoa hiju cd ung dung- plasma cho nang lu'dng. Tac gia dang cong tac tai Khoa Ky thuat dien - TrUdng Dai hpc Dien lUc.
LJnh vUc nghien cuU: thuat toan toi uU, dU bao phu tai dien, nang lu'dng tai tao, dp tin cay trong hg thdng dien.
~ | Tac gia Vu Thj Anh Thd bao ve Luan an tien sT nganh ky thuat dien tai
• Tru'dng €>ai hoc Grenoble, Phap. Tac gia dang cong tac tai Khoa Ky thuat dien - Tnrdng Dai hpc Dien lUc.
; LTnh vUc nghien cdu: vat lieu dien, tu" dpng hoa he thong dien, dy" bao phii
Tac gia Pham V3n Duy tot nghiep thac sT tai Vien dai hpc Md Ha Noi chuyen nganh ky thuat dien t d . Tac gia dang cong tac tai Tmng tam Nang lu'dng miS va tai tao - Vien khoa hpc Nang ludng - chuyen nganh nang lu'dng tai tao.
34
