KHOA HOC
NGHIEN CUtJ XAC DINH CHI S 6 AN TOAN CONG TRINH DAU MOI HO CHlTA THUY LQfl THEO LY T H U Y E T DO TIN CAY - ITNG DUNG
CHO H 6 NUI C6C, TINH THAI NGUYEN
Cam Thi Lan H u o n g Tdng cue Thiiy lgi Tom tat: Nghien cuu phdt triin khung bdi todn tdng qudt irng dung ly thuyit dp Hn cay trong ddnh gid an todn cdng trinh ddu mdi thuy lal trong giai dogn khai thdc, su dung a Viet Nam cd xet din yeu td ngdu nhiin ve thiiy van. thiiy luc vd ngdp lut hg du thdng qua cdc chi sd an todn (xdc sudt su cd thdnh phdn cdng trinh, xdc sudt su cd he thdng Pf vd chi sd dp tin cdy f); gidi hdm dp tin cdy theo cdp dp 3 bdng phuong phdp md phdng ngdu nhien Monte - Carlo (MCS);
phdn tich dP tin cdy cua he thdng vd di xudl gidi phdp ndng cao an lodn hd chiea nu&c. dp dung diin hinh cho hd Nui Cdc. tinh Thdi Nguyen.
Tu khoa: An todn hd chira. an todn edng trinh ddu mdi, ddnh gid an todn dap. ly thuyil dp tm cdy. hd Niii Cdc.
Summary: Research to develop a general framework that applies the theory of reliability in assessing safety of headworks of existing irrigation resei'voir in Vietnam taking into the random factors of hydrology and hydrology force and flood downstream through safety indicators
probability safety of component, system safely probability Pf and reliability index /3); solving reliability function at level 3 by Monte - Carlo simulation (MCS); analyzing the reliability of the system and proposing solutions to improve safety of reservoirs, typical application for Nui Coc reservoir. Thai Nguyen province.
Key words: Theory of reliability, dam safely assessment, reservoir safety, safety of the headworks of irrigation reservoir. Nui Coc.
1. DAT VAN DE
Theo Bp Nong nghiep va PTNT [1], hien ca nuac CO 6.998 h6 chira thuy lgi, g6m: 04 ho quan trgng dac biet; 812 ho lan; 1.575 bo chiia vira va 4.607 ho nho. Ho ehita thuy lgi phan bo tai 45/63 dia phuong v6i tong dung tich trii khoang 14,5 ty m^, tao nguon nuac tuoi cho 1,1 trieu ha dat nong nghiep, cap khoang 1,5 ty m^ nuoc cho sinh hoat, cong nghiep gop phan quan trpng vao qua trinh pbat trign kinh te -xa hpi ciia dat nuoc.
Cac ho chiia thuy lgi hien dang khai thae dugc
Ngay nhan bai: 09/01/2020 Ngay thong qua phan bien: 09/02/2020 Ngay duyet dang: 12/02/2020
xay dung trong dieu kien kinh tg chua phat triln; trinh do thigt ke, thi eong xay dung eong trmh con han chg; tbieu kinh phi bao tri; eong tae quan ly eon nhieu bat cap; trai qua thoi gian dai khai thac, cong trinh bi hu bong, xudng cip. Hien ea nu6c co 1.730 ho ehiia bi xuing cip, thilu kba nang xa lii, tigm an nguy eo m i t an toan. Nhiing nam gan day, anb huong eua biln doi khi hau gay ra mua, lu cue doan dign biln phirc tap, bat thuong anh hu6ng nghiem trgng dgn an toan bo chiia. Tir nam 2010 d i n nay, da xay ra 69 su c6 dap, bo cbijra, tap trung nhigu trong 3 nam: 2017 (23 b6), 2018 (12 b l , dap), 2019 (11 hi).
Dap, h i chira khi bi sir c6, dac biet la vo dap gay thiet hai nang cho ban than cong trinh, anh
TAP C H l KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H ^ T H U Y L O I S 6 58 •- 2020
I KHOA HOC l^ft»l*JMeiJM!l=^
hu6ng den tai san, tinb mang cua nban dan vimg ba du. Do vay, cong tae quan ly an toan dap, b l chiia nu6c rat quan trgng. De co dugc giai phap quan ly hieu qua, can danb gia chinh xac vg miie do an toan ciia dap, ho chira tao co so khoa hpc, thuc tien dg dg xuat co che, chinh sach phii hgp.
Hien nay, 6 Viet Nam, viec danb gia an toan cong trinh dau moi ho cbira chii ygu dugc thyc hien theo pbuong phap tat dinh (so sanh voi gia tri an toan cho pbep theo cap eong trinh) chua dg cap dgn ygu to ngau nhien ve thiiy van, thiiy lye, van hanb va kha nang chap nhan nii ro ngap lut ciia vimg ha du. Mpt so ngbien ciiu trong nuoc ve ly thuyet do tin eay mai ehi tap trung xac djnh dp tin cay (DTC) cong trinh dau moi ho cbira nuoc ma ehua gan voi nii ro ngap kit ha du.
Phuang phap danh gia an toan he thong cong trinh dau moi tbong qua phan tieh DTC va pban tieh rui ro ngap lut viing ha du dang dupe nghien
Cliu phat trien rpng rai tren thi gioi.
Bai viet trinh bay phuang phap luan M'> ^'=^'^S ly thuylt dp tin cay (LTDTC) xac djnb xae suit su c6 (Pf) ciia he thing d i u n-;6i bo chiia thiiy lgi trong giai doan khai thac, su dung co xet d i n rui ro ngap lut ha du, ap dung dien hmh cho ho Niii C6c, tinh Thai Nguygn.
2. THIET LAP BAI TOAN LTNG DUNG LY THUYET D O TIN CAY DANH GIA AN TOAN CONG TRINH D A U MOI H 6 CHLTA THUY LOI
2.1. So dd hoa cong trinh dau moi h6 chii'a nirot Cae hmh thice bo tri tong thg cong trinh dau moi (CTDM) bo cbiia nuoc rat da dang, trong do pbo bien la dang gom 03 hang muc: dap ngan song, cong trinh xa lii va cong lay nuac.
Hinb 1 so hga mgt so hinh thire bo tri tong the CTDM h i chira 6 Viet Nam.
a. Trdn vd cdng bd tri liin v&i ddp chinh b. Cdng bd tri liin v&i dap, trdn tdeh rdi
c. Cde ti'dn bd tri tdeh r&i, mpt trdn bd tri lien vai dap chinh, cdc cdng ngdm bd tri & cd dap chinh vd cdc dap phu.
Hinh I; Mpl sd hinh thiec bd tri tdng the cdng trinh ddu mdi hd chiea & Viet Nam I. Bdp chinh; 2. Trdn xd lii; 3. Cdng ngdm; 4. Ldng hd; 5. Bdp phu.
2.2. Thiet lap s o d6 cay s y e6
La so do mo ta cbuoi logic cua tat ca cac su eo dan den cimg mpt su co khong mong muon gpi la "sy CO cuoi cimg". Su co nay nam a trgn cimg (pban ngon) ciia so do cay su c l [2].
Bir&c 1; Phdn tich he thdng
Pban tich he tbong la viec mo ta chiic nang cua be tbong, eac bg phan cau thanh va mli quan he giila cac tbanh pban theo timg bang muc cong trinb. He thong thanh phan eo tbg chia thanh hg thing nho bon. Cae eo cbg su co (CCSC) co thi
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E T H U Y L O I SO 58 - 2020
chung mgt nguyen nhan nhu: muc nuoe ho dang cao se din toi nuoe tran dinh dap va gay xoi, sat trupt mai dap chmh, dap phu...
Dii vol ho cbira, he thong dugc phan tieh toan dien tir CTDM den vimg ha du. Cae truong hgp ho chiia xa lii gay ngap lut ba du dap bao gom:
- Truong hgp 1: Ho chiia xa lii theo quy trinh van hanh co gay ngap ha du nhung khong gay thiet hai;
- Truong hpp 2: Ho chiia xa lii trong tinh huong khan cap do nguyen nhan bat kba khang nhu:
mua, lii vugt tan suat thigt kg; dgng dat vugt tieu chuan thiet kg tren luu vyc ho cbiia nuoc hoac tac dgng khac gay mat an toan eho dap;
I KHOA HOC ^ E B M E H ^ l
- Truong hgp 3:Sy cl 6 CTDM gim: Su cl 6 dap, tran xa lu, d n g lay nuoc hay eong trinh lien quan khac thupc CTDM se true tilp hoac gian tiep din din tran phai xa lu khin cip hoac vo dap gay ngap hit ba du, trong do, vo dap la truong hgp gay thiet hai lan nhit. Nhu vay, sy kien "ngap lut vimg ha du" la "su cl culi cung" trong sa dl eay su cl. Bai vilt di sau phan tieb, tinh toan truang hpp 3.
Bu&c 2; Md td sa sd cdy su ed; Cac dieu kien lign quan giiJa cae sy eo co sa dugc gpi la cac cong lign ket [2]. So dl cay su cl cua CTDM bo cbiia thuang dugc bieu dien bang cong lign ket va kigu su eo/su kien nhu Bang 1:
Bang 1: Cong lien ket, sir co va hinh thiic ghep noi thu-frng gap trong sff dh cay sy co
TT Loai Ki
hieu Y nghta
Cdng lien ket 1 2
Va
Hoac
n
A
He thong song song: Su eo tren xay ra kbi su eo duoi xay ra He tbong noi tigp: Sy co tren xay ra kbi it nhat 1 su co du6i xay ra
Su- co/su- kien 1 2
( )
<>
S u CO CO s 6
Su eo don Trong he thong CTDM ho chiia nuoc, sy co eua bat ky thanh phan nao eiing co the dan den sy co eua toan he thong. Do vay, lien kgt giiia eac tbanh phan la "noi tigp". So do eay sy eo tong quat cho CTDM bo chiia nuoc nbu Hinb 2.
0 c o n g Iri Jan m o t
2E
Hinh 2: Sa dd cdy su cd ngdp lut viing hg du hd chua
a) Cff che su cd vd sff dd cay su cd eua dap dat
Tir viec pban tich mpt si hu hong chinh va su cl thuang gap 6 dap dit [3], tien hanh ting hpp cac CCSC 6 dap va thilt lap so c ' cl ting quat cho dap tai Hinh 3: I cay sy
|st.'COlljF(E
^
H.BjpPHi;) I
^
Hinh 3; Sa dd cdy su cd ciia dap
TAP C H l KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H f T H O Y LOI S6 58 - 2020 95
KHOA HOC
b) Ca che su cd vd sa dd cdy su cd cua trdn xd lu
Phan tieb mpt so hu hong ehinh va sy c l thuang gap 6 tran xa lii [3], xac dinb cac CCSC 6 eong trinb thao lii va thigt lap so do cay sy eo tong quat cbo cong trinb tbao lu nbu Hmh 4:
muc tuSn theo cac quy luat vat ly, co hoc theo CO chl tae dpng qua lai giira moi truimg nuoc, nen, eong trmh. Quy luat nay dupe xem
Hinh 4: Sa dd cdy su cd cua cdng trinh thdo lii c) Cff che su cd vd sff do cdy su cd cda cdng lay nu&c
Tir viec phan tieh mgt so hu bong cbuih va su CO thuong gap 6 cong lay nu6c [3], xac dinh cac CCSC 6 cong lay nuoc va thigt lap so do cay su CO tong quat ebo bang muc cong lay nuoc trong CTDM nbu Hinh 5:
j sycgcONGLAYNUdC I
I I I
: ^
I I I I I G3ycdng Thap cong bi nghieog
Hong khdp noi
Day cong bi XOI
Cong bl dot
Zz
Hong tbiet
z
b!Ket va gay ara
Tham dgc th^nh
ben cong
Hinh 5: Sa dd cdy su cd cua cdng lay nu&c 2.3. Thi^t lap va giai h a m do tin c^y cua co' che su" CO ho chira niroc
a) Nguyen tdc thiet lap
Ham tin cay (Z) mo ta mpt CCSC c6 dp bgn la (R) va tai trpng la (S) nhu sau [2]:
Z^R-S (1) CTDM ho chira nu6c la mpt be thing kit ciu
trgn ngn ebiu tac dpng ciia cae moi truong xung quanh. Do vay, boat dgng cua tirng bang
x e t d g xac dinh ham tai trpng va ham dp ben kbi thiet lap ham tin cay [5].
Bang 2 trmb bay nguyen t i c thilt lap mpt so ham tm cay ciia cac bang muc thupc CTDM dupe thiet lap tir viec phan tieb dilu kien xuat hien trang thai gioi ban ciia eo c h l pba hong.
Chi s i do tin cay p [4] la gia trj dugc dirng dg thay tbg eho do tin cay hoae xac suat su eo Pf.
^ - 0 - ' ( l - P / ) (2)
trong do, O"' la nghich dao eiia ham pban phoi chuan chuan boa.
Bieu kien dp dung
- D i i tupng nghien ciru la CTDM ho chiia nuoc dupe mo phong theo he thong noi tiep.
- Cac ngi dung tinh toan gom: each xae dinh trang thai gioi han, xac dinh tai trgng tac dgng, do ben ... dugc thye hien theo tigu ebuan, quy chuan ky thuat quoe gia hien hanb.
b) Cdeh gidi hdm dp tin cay
Hien nay, co 3 cap do giai ham DTC dg xac dinh xac suat su co (XSSC) nhu sau:
- Cap do 1: Tinh toan dua trgn cae gia tri dac tnmg va he so an toan cbo phep.
- Cap dp II: Phuong pbap gan diing, trong do ham tin cay dugc tuygn tinh boa tai "dilm thilt ke";
bam mat do xae xuat eo dang phan bo chuan.
- Cap do 111: H a m mat do xac suat ciia ham mat dp tin cay la ham ngau nhien, phi tuyen tinh.
Phuong pbap mo pbong ngau nhign Monte- Carlo (MCS) [2] dupe ap dung dg giai ham DTC theo cip dp 111 bang each mo phong cac biln ngiu nbien (BNN) ban dau ciia bam DTC theo cac luat phan phoi tuong iing. Cac BNN dupe mo pbong dgc lap lan nhau. Ty s i giiia s6 iin ham Z nhan gia tri am tren t i n g s i iin mo phong dugc xem la XSSC cua ham DTC.
96 TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHE T H O Y LOI S6 58 - 2020
KHOA HOC
2.4. Thilt lap bai toan xac djnh xac suat sy CO va phan tich do tin cSy cua ho chii-a nude a) Muc tieu: Banh gia hien trang cua CTDM ho chiia nuoc tbong qua viec xac dinh va so sanh DTC ciia CTDM vai chuan an toan hien co; tir do de xuat giai phap nang cao DTC cho cong trinh va giam thigu nii ro ngap lut vimg ha du.
b)Trinh tir thuc hien
- Budc 1: Mo ta nhiem vy, cau tao, quy mo, hien trang ciia cac thanb phan thupc CTDM; xac dinh moi quan he giiia eac thanh phan; phan ticb thong ke cac BNN tai trpng va dp bin.
- Bie&c 2: Liet kg eae sy co co kha nang xay ra cho eac hang muc cong trinh va he thing CTDM; pban tich nguygn nhan dan dgn sy eo theo cac eo che khac nhau.
- Bu&c 3: Xay dyng so do cay su cl cua eae hang muc va toan he thing CTDM.
- Bu&c 4: Thiet lap eac ham tin cay cua cac CCSC va giai bam tin cay xac dinh XSSC.
- Bu&c 5. Phan tich so do cay sy eo, tong hgp XSSC ciia cac CCSC cho tirng hang muc va toan bp CTDM theo ma tran sy cl tai Bang 3, trong do:
+ Cot (0): Liet kg cac hang muc cong trinb thupc CTDM;
^ Hang (1): Liet kg cae CCSC cua cac hang muc cong trinb;
+ Pj,: La gia tri ciia 6 thupc ma tran tao bai bang thiry va egt thii / thg hien XSSC eua hang mye cong trinh thir j theo CCSC thir /. NIU CCSC thir (i) khong xay ra voi bang mue cong trmh dang xem xet tbi khong diln gia tri vao 6;
+ Hang cuoi ciing thg hien ting xac suit theo tirng CO chl sy cl; cot culi cimg thi hien tong XSSC ciia tirng hang muc cong trinh va ZPs. - IPj
c) Kit qud vd y nghia ciia bdi todn Danh gia an toan he thing CTDM bing LTDTC cho ket qua va y nghTa nhu sau:
- Nhdn dgng duae hgng muc cdng trinh ed nguy ca xdy ra su ed cao nhdt trong he thong tbong qua viec phan tich cot cuoi (tuong img voi bang CO Pj max). Tir do, xac dinh hang muc thupc CTDM can phai tap trung dg nang cap.
- Xdc dinh duae CCSC ed xde sudt xdy ra su- ed l&n nhdt tbong qua viec phan tich hang cuoi ciing (tuong iing voi co che eo Psci max). Tir do, tao co s6 quan trgng dg xuat giai phap ky thuat trong thiet ke sua chiia, nang cap dg nang cao DTC cho he thong cong trinb dau moi.
Bang 2: Nguyen tac thilt I3p mot s6 ham tin cay cua cac hang muc thuoc CTDM TT
/
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Co che pha hoai Ham tin cay | Ghi chii Hang muc ddp ddt
Nuoc tran dinh dap
Trugt mai On dinb tham thong thuong
On dinh tham dac biet
^ ~ ^dd ^]n
Z-A:„,-[/:]
z=M-Ji.
z = Ii„-[4,]
Z^/j: Cao trinh dinh dap
Z|j,: Muc nuoc max tinb tir muc nLr6c tinh tinh toan cpng v6i chieu cao song leo va dp denh do gio
K : He so an toan chong trugt r^i: He si an toan chong trugt cbo phep
J^^ : Dp die dong tbam tai vi tri kigm tra [j 1: Dp die dong tham gi6i ban cho phep
y I : Tong chieu dai duong vien tbam
\LA: Chilu dai duong viln tham ebo phep
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 58 - 2020 97
I KHOA HOC T T
n
2.1
2.2
2.3
HI
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
Co chg pha hoai [ H a m tin cay | Ghi chii - H a n g muc tran xa lu
On dinh trugt
On djnb lat
Liin khong dgu giira cac don nguygn
Z-I.F.-T.F,
^=Z*'.'-Z«..
Z =[AZL -AZ,,„
7 . F^^: Tong luc ebong trugt 2 ^ Fg, : Tong luc gay trugt
^ M^i: Tong mo men cbing lat y M„,: Tong mo men gay lat
AZ^„: Chgnh lech lun tmh toan giii'a hai dan nguyen
[AZ]f. Chgnh lech liin ebo phep giira cac don nguyen
Cong lay niroc Liin khong dgu giira cac doan cong
Do ben kgt eau theo pbuong ngang va pbuong dpc cong
Tham tigp xiie dpc cong
Nen cong khong dam bao ve cuong do
Cong bi tbam
Z = [AZ\ - AZ„,
Z = T,„-l,
z=ff-j:^..
^=[<^]„™-^mn.
z - [ J] - y„,^^
AZ^,,,: Chgnh lech lim tinh toan giira hai doan cong
[AZl : Chenh lech liin eho phep giiia cac doan cong
T^j: Npi luc lon nhat do to hpp tai trpng tuih toan gay ra tai tiet dien dang xet
T , : Kba nang cbiu luc nho nhat cua tiet dien do
y i : Chigu dai du6ng vien tham tinh toan dpc c6ng[L,,J: Chieu dai duong vien tham giai han cho phep
o'„,^,, : ung suat lon nhat tai day mong cong [<y]„^„: ling suat cho phep cua ngn [j]: gradien tham cho pbep eua vat lieu lam cong
J: gradien tham cua nuac trgn dinb cong.
Bang 3: Ma tran su co ciia he thong CTDM ho chua niro'c Cac hang muc thuoc
cong trinh dau moi (0) Dap chinh Dap phu (thir 1) Dap phu(tbii j) Cong trinh tbao lii (thir 1) Cong trinh tbao lii (tbir k)
Cff che s u CO Sir CO 1
(1) Pn P2l
Pll
Pti
Sir CO 2 (2) PI2 P22
P,2
PH
Su- CO i (i) Pll P2l
PI,
Ph
Su' CO n (n) pi„
Pin
Pj„
...
Ph, Tong
P, P,
Ps
r,
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG N G H | T H U Y LOI S 6 58 - 2020
KHOA HOC Cac hang muc tiiudc
cong trinh Aku moi Cong lay nuac so (thu 1) Cong lay nuac (thu: 1) Cac hang muc khac (m) T6ng hffp
S u CO 1
PI,
P,„
Psci
Ca che su c5 S u CO 2
Pl2 Pi„2 PSC2
S u e d i
PI, P„,i Psa
Su-co n
Pin Pn,,, PsCn
Tong
P, Pm Pur 3. AP DUNG DIEN HINH CHO HO
NUI COC
3.1. Mo phong he thSng CTDM h6 Niii C6c So dl bl tri CTDM ciia hi chiia Niii Cic nhu Hinh 6, gim cac thanh phin: 01 dap chinh, 07 dap phu, 01 tran chmh, 01 tran bl sung va 01 cong lay nuoe trong than dap chinh.
So do cay sy eo dugc thigt lap tir digu tra, phan tieh hien trang ho chira nbu Hinh 7.
Hinh 7: Sa do edy su cd CTBMhd Nui Cdc 3.2. Xac dinh xac suat xay ra su co ciia cac CO' che va phan tich do tin cay cua hg thing Xae dinh quy luat phan bo xac suat ciia cac BNN lam so lieu dau vao tuih toan.
Tinh toan on dinh mai ha luu dap tbeo Geoslope xac djnh dupe Kai ^ 1.487 a) Xac dinh XSSC cua ca che nuoe tran dinh dap Mye nuoe bo eo phan bo chuan (46.51; 0.61) dixac tinh toan va kigm dinb tir cbuoi so lieu Hinh 6: So hgg he thdng CTDM ho Nui Cdc quan trie muc nuac cue tri nam.
Bang 4: Bang thong s6 diu vao va kit qua XSSC dii voi co" che nu'o'c tran dinh Ham tin cay
Nuo'c tran dinh dap
Z | -Zdd-Znin BNN Zdd Zmn
Phan bo chuan Phan bo chuan
f 49.55 46.510
a 0.8 0.61
Pr=
N = n -
0.0014 5000 7
So lan rao phong So lan xuat hien Z<0 Bang 5: Cac gia tri cua BNN va ham tin cay Ichi tinh theo phuong phap MC TT
1 2 3
P(i) 0.201735557 0.465060697 0.559838356
Z d d 48.88165 49.479846 49.670448
P(i) 0.3702622 0.6493193 0.01527
Zmn 46.30799307 46.74392488 45.19056133
Z=R-S 2.57365649 2.73592144 4.47988619
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 58 - 2020
w?Tgi?ra!T^
KHOA HOC
b) Thiet lap ham tin eay ciia cac co cbe sir co con lai theo Bang 2 va tinh toan tuong ty bang phuong phap MCS xae dmh XSSC ciia cac CO chg thanh pban nbu Bang 6; tign hanh phan ticb DTC cua be t h i n g CTDM b i n g phan mgm OPEN FTA cho kgt qua Pr = 1.8112x10'^
Bang 6: M u c do anh hiro'ng ciia cac
c) Nhdn xet: P r = 0.018112 > [P] - ''^'''- "^^
be thing co kha nang bi su c l , n^-'^y-'"'' '^'^^^"^
lon nhit din din sy c l CTDM la do trugt mai ha luu dap voi miic dg anb huong cua co che trugt mai ba luu din XSSC ciia toan he thong la 67.36%. Do vay, bang muc ckr\ lap trung sira chu'a, nang cap la dap ehinh.
CO che su CO d i n do tin cay dap chinh T T
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Cff che s u CO Nuac tran dinh dap Truot mai ha luu dap chinh Xoi tai cua ra
Hinh thanh hang tham trong than dap Hinh thanh hang tham trong nen dap Tran 1 bi truot
Tran I bi lat Tran 2 bi truot Tran 2 bi lat
Tham doc hanh lang cong Do ben cua ket cau than eong ngam
XSSC Pf 1.40x10"' 1.22x10'^
1.20x10-' 0.60x10'' 0.80x10"' 0.20 xlO"
0.40x10'' 0.20 x l C ' 0.40x10'' 0.60x10'' 0.20x10''
Mii'C do a n h huffng den
C T D M 7.73%
67.36%
6.63%
3.31%
4.42%
1.10%
2.21%
1.10%
2.21%
3.31%
1.10%
1 1 0 % ^ : 2 2154., I /
• Tn/o1maih3luijda[) chinh
• Hinh thanh hang tham trong Ihan dap
• Hinh thanh hang tham trong nen dap
Hinh 8; Muc dp dnh huang cua cdc ca chi su cd din an todn hd Nui Cdc 4. K E T LUAN
Nghign Cliu da phat trien dugc khung bai toan tong quat irng dung LTDTC Irong danh gia an toan CTDM bo chira nuoe thong qua cac chi so an toan: xac suat sy co thanh pban cong trinb, xac sual sy co be thong Pf va chi so do tin cay p.
Theo danh gia ciia cac co quan quan ly an toan
dap, ho chiia nuoc, eong trinh dau moi ho Niii Coc bao dam an toan theo tigu chuan bien hanh.
Tuy nhien, ket qua nghign cim trong gioi ban ciia bai vigt tbeo LTDTC cbo thay ehi so an toan hien tai (Pr - 0,018112> [Fr] - 0,002), cong trinb c6 kba nang xay ra sy co va can dugc sira cbiia, nang cap dam bao an toan de phil hgp vai cac yeu to ngau nhign vg thiiy van, thiiy luc va vimg ha du thay doi so voi tbiet ke.
Phuong phap phan tich do tin cay ung dung trong danh gia an toan dap, bo chira nuoc dang la xu the chung tren the giai. Nghien cuu dien hinh ebo bo Niii Coc cho tbay kha nang ieng dung mo rgng trong dieu kien Viet Nam. D I ap dung khung bai toan nay eho cac h i chiia khac cin thiet lap he thong co so dir lieu cua cac BNN v l quan trie cong trinh \ a khi tupng thiiy van cbuyen dimg voi cbuoi quan trie dii dai d l nang cao tinb cbinh xac trong vcc phan tich xac djnh dp tin cay ciia be thong
100 TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 58 - 2020
I KHOA HOC ^ E I M Z S S M
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1 ] D I an "Ndng cao ndng luc qudn ly an todn dap, hd chua thuy lai din ndm 2025 " kem theo To trinh s6 902/TTr-BNN-TCTL ngay 10/02/2020, Bp Nong ngbiep va PTNT.
[2] Mai Van Cong, 2005, ''Thiit ke edng trinh Iheo ly thuyil ngdu nhiin vd phdn lich dp tin cdy", Nba xuat ban xay dyng, Ha Npi.
[3] Pham Ngpc Quy va nnk, 2015, "Nghien. ciru tdc ddng ciia bien ddi khi hdu din su ldm viic an todn dap ddt cua hd chua me&c vd di xudt bd tieu chi ddnh gid an todn ddp ".
[4] TCVN 9905:2014 ve Cdng trinh thuy lai - Yeu edu thiil ki kit cdu theo do tin cdy.
[5] Nguyen Van Mao, Nguyen Hiiu Bao, Nguyen Lan Huang, 2014, "Cc sa tinh dp tin cdy an todn dap ", Nha xuat ban Xay dyng. Ha Npi.
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHeTHOV L p i SO 58 - 2020 10
