NAFTA BEN LE HAI THE KY
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ho de'n nay, khu viic mau dich tii do Bic My (NAFTA) da tdn tai va phat trien dUdc 15 nam (1/1/1995 - 1/1/2009), da mot thdi gdp phan tich ciic phat trien dn dinh ben vutng kinh te - xa hoi cua ca khdi tren cd sd giai quyet td't nhUng nhu cau rieng cua tiing nUdc thanh vien.Ddi vdi Canada, nhu c i u rieng ay la de hang hoa, vat tu Mexico khdng phai di dUdng vdng qua My rdi mdi den thi trUdng Canada nhU trUdc khi Mexicd gia nhap NAFTA: Canada cci quan he thUdng mai tii dd vdi Mexicc se mang lai ldi ich kinh te - xa hdi lau dai chd ca hai nUdc. Vi sd vdi Canada, Mexicd da't hep (Dien tich la 1,9725 trieu km'^ so vdi 9,974 trieu km'^ cua Canada), dan sd' ldn hdn Canada (khdang 103 trieu ngUdi sd vdi 31,6 trieu ngUdi cua Canada) khi ky thda thuan gia nhap NAFTA (ngay
1/1/1993), nen Canada hy vpng Mexico se la ndi vifa tieu thu hang boa, viia cung ca'p vat tU, nguyen lieu va lao ddng re tien cho Canada. Hdn nuta, do vi tri dia ly va uy tin chinh tri cua Mexico d khu viic My Latinh, nen Canada hy vcng Mexico se la cau nol giiip Canada thie't lap dUdc quan he giad thUdng vdi cac nUdc khu viic nay nhieu hdn nuta, mac du da cd quan he giao thUdng vdi mdt sd' nUdc vimg Caribbean. Dd la chUa ke Canada quan he thUdng mai vdi Mexicc chi cd ldi chd Canada tren cac dien dan kinh te the gidi vi Mexicc la thanh vien cua nhieu td chifc qud'c te.
Dang Thj Ha Vien Nghien cdu Chdu My
trong dd cd WTO va IMF. La thanh vien cua NAFTA va cua ddi tac an ninh thinh vUdng Bae My (The Security and Prcsperty Partnership of North America - SPP), Mexico cd the la ddi trong trong cac quan he My va Canada.
Ddi vdi Mexico, nhu ciu ay la vifa nham thu hiit vd'n dau tu cua My va Canada de giai quye't viec lam, nang cao ddi sd'ng cho nhan dan, giam d i n tinh trang lao ddng ndng thdn bd ra thanh thi kiem viec lam hoac vUdt bien bat hdp phap sang My kiem an, gay bat dn chd xa hdi My, va viia cd the diing Canada lam trung gian boa giai nhiing bat ddng trong quan he Mexico va My, chii ye'u do ngUdi Mexicc vUdt bien bat hdp phap sang My gay nen. Sd di dan Mexico bd que hUdng sang My kiem sd'ng ngay cang nhieu chu yeu dc ddi sd'ng ngUdi dan Mexico qua khd khan. Vi du, nam
1992 - nam dam phan gia nhap NAFTA - thi khoang 26% ngudi dan khdng cd nUdc sach de sinh boat; 29%
lao ddng khdng cd viec lam; 20%) ngUdi dan khdng dUdc trd giiip y te;
400/1000 tre em sd sinh bi chet yeu - cdn d Canada la 7,2/1000 tre, d My la 9,2/1000 tre sd sinh.
Nam 1993 - nam ky thoa thuan thanh lap NAFTA - GDP/ngudi cAa Mexico la 9136 USD, cua Canada la 30.163 USD, cdn cua My la 37.348 USD; chenh lech thu nhap giau nghec giuta 10% dan sd' giau nhat va 10%
dan sd' nghee nha't ciia Canada la 10
lin. cua My la 15.7 lan. cua ^Mexico la 43,1 l i n (Xem ME.MO - sd 7/2005, cac trang 85. 86, 90 va 91).
Ddi vdi My. muc tieu cua My gia nhap NAFTA khac vdi muc tieu cua hai nu'dc ndi tren, trUdc het My mudn bie'n NAFTA thanh hat nhan khdi kmh te luc dia Tay Ban cau. nen khi ky van ban thanh lap NAFTA, My da diia ra mdt luan thuyet het sifc md hd
"cac ben cimg cd ldi". ddng thdi nhan manh. khdng thanh lap lien minh kmh te kieu EU da lam. nghia la khdng mudn NAFTA la hen minh thue quan hay lien minh tien te. Ngay til dau cac quan he cua khdi kinh te luc dia nay da mau thuan vdi cac nguyen tac va chuan miic phap ly cua WTO. nhUng khdng lam My ban tam. Cd le vi My cc nen kinh te ldn nhat tean cau. lai chiem p h i n ldn GDP cua NAFTA, che nen My cd the chi phdi dUdc mpi boat ddng cha NAFTA. Khi NAFTA ra ddi, trong tdng GDP cua ca khdi, thi p h i n GDP ciia My chie'm 88°o, cua Canada - 7°o, cua Mexico - 5"o,
Nhieii thdng tin cho biet, Mexico dupc ket nap vae NAFTA chii yeu la nhd cac cudc van ddng hanh lang (Lobby) ciia cac cdng ty xuyen qud'c gia Mexico mang lai. Do vay. sau khi NAFTA cd hieu lilc (1/1/1994), cac cdng ty nay ddng vai trd chu ye'u cua Mexico trong boat ddng cua NAFTA.
Trong thdi gian tdn tai va phat trien cua minh, NAFTA boat dong trong khudn khd phap dy do ba nu'dc ddng thuan de ra. Nhifng do xuat phat diem kinh te - xa hdi cua cac nUdc khdng nhu nhau khi gia nhap NAFTA, nen kha nang binh d i n g trong quan he giao thUdng giuta cac nUdc vdi nhau ciing khac nhau.
Do cd nen kinh te ldn. nen My cd kha nang tac ddng manh den nen kinh te hai nUdc thanh vien cdn lai.
Kinh te Canada phu thudc nhieu vao thi trUdng My, nen khimg hdang kinh te My hien nay anh hudng xa'u den Canada nhieu hdn de'n Mexico. Cuoc khimg hdang khdng nhutng anh hUdng xa'u den nen kinh te Canada, ma cdn tac ddng tieu ciic de'n tinh hinh chinh tri ciia nUdc nky.
Bad "NgUdi hudng dan khoa hoc dao Cd Dd'c" so ra t h i n g 12/2008 chd bie't, de cifu nguy cho ba doanh nghiep d td My dang san xuat. kinh doanh d Canada khdng bi sup dd, va de 150 ngan ngUdi Canada lao ddng tnic tie'p va 400 ngan ngUdi Canada lad ddng gian tiep, phuc vu ba doanh nghiep khdng bi ma't viec lam. chinh phu cua Thu tudng Harper da dung 3,29 ty tien thue nhan dan gdp cho ngan sach nha nUdc de cifu giiip ba doanh nghiep nay. So' tien dd chie'm 20%
tdng sd tien (17,4 ty USD) My cifu trd cac doanh nghiep nay, trong khi dd, cac quy cifu trd xa hdi cua Canada van chUa dUdc cai thien, khien dan chung bat binh vdi viec lam nay cua chinh phu, Dd vay, Ndi cac ciia dng Harper viia dUdc Qud'c hdi tuyen chen, bau ra vad ngay 28/10/208. thi de'n ngay 5/12/2008 da bi nhan dan bd phieu mat "tin nhiem,
Cd the tha'y rang, ba doanh nghiep d td My hoat dong s i n xua't kinh ddanh d Canada la ba chi nhanh cua ba dai gia c to ndi tieng My va the gidi, gdm Ford, Chrysler va General Mdtors. Ba chi n h a n h nay da gdp phan quan trong vao tdng kim ngach xua't khau binh quan hang nam trUdc ngay khimg hoang kinh te toan cau, chiem khoang 23% tdng kim ngach xuat khau cua Canada, gdp p h i n lam cho cdng nghiep 5 td trd thanh nganh kinh t e l d n thii hai cua Canada.
Mexico ciing chiu anh hudng xa'u cua khimg hoang kinh te My, nhUng
khdng tai h a i b a n g C a n a d a . Sd di nhU vay, theo cac n h a q u a n sat va b i n h l u a n k i n h te t h e gidi, chu ye'u la do trUdc ngay gia n h a p NAFTA, Mexico da ky dUdc n h i e u hiep d i n h thUdng mai Sdng phUdng va da phUdng vdi cac nUdc My L a t i n h , E U va chau A.
Nhd dd, Mexicd p h a n t a n va da d a n g hda dUdc t h i trUdng x u a t n h a p k h a u , khdng p h u thuoc n h i e u vao t h i trUdng My va C a n a d a , giam t h i e u dUdc a n h hudng x a u cua k h u n g h d a n g thi trudng tai chinh, k i n h te'My.
Vi du, t r o n g thdi gian 1991-2006, kim ngach xua't k h a u cua Mexicc s a n g cac k h u vUc ndi t r e n , n h a t la s a n g cac nUdc My L a t i n h , t a n g d a n va dn dinh, ndi trdi la s a n g Cdsta Rica - t a n g 409,3%; t r o n g thdi gian 1994-2006 - sang Chile t a n g 515,3%; t r e n g thdi gian 1997-2006 - s a n g N i c a r a g u a t a n g 610,5%. N a m 1993 - n a m ky thoa t h u a n gia n h a p NAFTA, Mexico ky thoa t h u a n , md rdng hdp tac giac thUdng vdi cac nUdc k h u viic c h a u A - Thai Binh DUdng. NgUdi t a che r i n g , viec md rdng n a y cd y n g h i a dac biet quan trpng ddi vdi Mexico vi day la vimg da't rdng, ngUdi ddng, t a i nguyen phdng phii, giiip cho Mexico sau khi NAFTA cd h i e u liic, k h d n g cdn hi r a n g budc n h i e u t r o n g q u a n he thUdng mai ndi bd khdi NAFTA.
Tif n a m 2000 de'n nay, hdp tac kinh te giuta Mexico vdi T r u n g Qud'c, H a n Qud'c va N h a t B a n ngay mdt n a n g ddng hdn. Ba qud'c gia n a y d a n g d i n lam bie'n d a n g NAFTA ve m a t giac thUdng k i n h te. Trong tdng kim ngach ngoai thUdng cua Mexico 2006, thi p h i n cua ba nUdc n a y chiem 23,7%, day C a n a d a tuf h a n g thif 2, xud'ng h a n g thif 5 t r o n g q u a n he budn b a n vdi cac nUdc c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng.
Budc v a c t h e k y XXI, T r u n g Qud'c coi Mexico nhU dia b a n t r u n g
c h u y e n , dUa h a n g hoa T r u n g Qud'c q u a day vao t h i t r u d n g NAFTA, trUdc m a t h a n g h o a T r u n g Qud'c d i n d i n la'n i t , c a n h t r a n h h a n g hoa My va C a n a d a t r e n t h i t r u d n g Mexcio, rdi cd t h e l a n toa d i n s a n g t h i trUdng My va C a n a d a .
Til n a m 2 0 0 1 , N h a t Ban ngay cang b a n h t r u d n g m a n h s a n g thi trudng Mexicc, FDI cua N h a t vac Mexico t a n g d i n , hien difng thif hai sau My.
P h i n ldn FDI cua N h a t dd vao cac n g a n h cdng nghiep dien tuf, cdng nghe ky t h u a t cao va cdng nghiep che tao d td cua Mexico - mot n g a n h n h a y cam ddi vdi My. Til 1/1999 de'n 6/2006, FDI cua N h a t vao Mexico t a n g 77,4%. Liia chpn k h u viic c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng lam ddi tac k i n h te, Mexicc da giam d i n p h u thudc n h i e u vac nen k i n h te My, nhd vay n e n k i n h te Mexico chiu a n h h u d n g tieu ciic cua k h i m g h o a n g k i n h te My it hdn sd vdi C a n a d a nhU da ndi t r e n .
Q u a n he giae thUdng giiia Mexicc va C a n a d a t r o n g thdi gian tdn t a i va p h a t t r i e n cua NAFTA k h d n g cd gi ndi trdi so vdi trUdc k h i NAFTA cd hieu liic, budn b a n h a n g hoa, dich vu qua lai giuta h a i nUdc v a n dien r a b i n h t h u d n g qua n a m t h i n g . NhUng do gidi d o a n h n g h i e p C a n a d a hoai nghi ve t i n h t r a n g ba't lUc cua chinh quyen Mexico t r o n g viec tra'n ap cac phe p h a i b u d n b a n m a t u y chd'ng ddi l i n n h a u , gay hdn loan xa hdi, can trd budn b a n , giad lUu h a n g hoa giuta Mexico va h a i nUdc NAFTA cdn lai, l a m c h i n h p h u cac nUdc n a y p h a i t h a n t r p n g t r o n g q u a n he giao thUdng vdi Mexicd.
Hien nay, d a n Mexicc vUdt bien t r a i phep s a n g My kiem sd'ng v i n cdn nhieu, gay nao loan t h i trUdng lad ddng, lam ma't t r a t t u xa hdi My, gay phiic t a p t h e m q u a n he My - Mexico,
anh hudng xa'u den tie'n do thiic hien dii an lam dudng cao td'c Mexico - Canada xuyen qua cac vimg mien lanh thd My. Cac chuyen gia kinh te My Udc tinh, hien nay cd khoang 22 trieu ngUdi Mexico dang kiem sdng d My, trong dd, khoang 6 trieu ngUdi vUdt bien trai phep.
Gia nhap NAFTA, My ching nhiing md rcing dUdc thi trUdng giad lUu hang hod, ma cdn cd cd hdi tie'p can de dang thi trudng lac ddng, vat tU, tien vdn d Mexicd va Canada trong khudn khd thoa thuan NAFTA, NhUng sau vu khimg bdngay 11/9/2001, Tea thap ddi, tru sd td chifc thUdng mai the gidi d New Ydrk - bieu trUng che sii giau cd himg manh ciia My - hi sup dc, thi quan he giad thUdng cua My trcng NAFTA ciing bi ran nift, mai den nam 2004 mdi d i n d i n ban gan dUdc ran niit nay, Vi du, nam 2001, doanh so' budn ban giiia My va Mexicc giam cdn 6 ty USD; giuta Mexico va Canada - giam cdn 100 trieu USD,
Nguyen nhan la do liic nay phat sinh Uu tien mdi trong quan he giao thUdng giiia cac nUdc NAFTA. Uu tien quan trpng hang dau la bid dam an tdan s i n xua't, lUu khd, luu bai, van chuyen hang hoa de'n ngUdi tieu dimg.
Budc d i u de bao dam sii an toan, ngay 12/12/2001 My va Canada ky tuyen cao chung ve an toan trong boat ddng thifdng mai cua NAFTA.
Dai dien Canada ky tuyen cao la Phd thii tifdng John Manley; dai dien cho My la Bd trudng An ninh ndi dia - Tdm Ridge.
De nang cao kha nang an toan cho san xuat va tieu thu hang hoa cua minh, Mexico dUa ra chUdng trinh "xa hdi thinh vUdng", chd phep xay diing cac quy che va nguyen t i c cimg cd'lien ke't Bic My, bao ve tdi da he thd'ng tai chinh, nang lUdng, thue quan va vidn
thdng cua nudc minh. Nhd vay, doanh so' budn ban giiia Mexico va cac nUdc chau A tang dan. Vi du, so vdi nam 2000, nam 2005, doanh sd' budn ban vdi Trung Qud'c - tang 6 lan, vdi Nhat - tang g i n 2 lan, vdi H i n Qud'c - tang 1,5 lan. Cdn vd'n FDI cua My va Canada vao Mexico giam d i n . Vi du, ne'u nam 2001 - la 27,478 ty USD, nam 2002 - giam cdn 19,342 ty USD, nam 2003 - cdn 15,345 ty USD. Trong khi dd FDI cua cac nUdc chau A, nha't la cua Nhat vao Mexico ngay mot gia tang, lam hang hoa cua cac doanh nghiep chau A lien doanh san xuat d Mexicc ngay cang nhieu, mau ma kieu dang dep, cha't lUdng khdng thua kem cac mat hang cimg loai cua My va Canada, gia t h a n h lai thap hdn hang hoa My va Canada vi gia nhan cdng d Mexico re hdn d hai nUdc nay, cho nen cd nhieu kha nang canh t r a n h vdi cac hang ngoai nhap tren thi trUdng Mexicc, lam rcl Idan thi trudng hang hoa NAFTA.
Cd the chd rang, trdng 15 nam qua, NAFTA da cd mot thdi gdp p h i n tich ciic vac viec phat trien cac nen kinh te Bae My, phat trien thi trUdng lac ddng, vat tU, nguyen lieu, ban che dUdc hang hoa chau Au, chau A hoi nhap Bae My, tao diing dUdc mang ludi giao thdng hien dai, thuan tien cho viec giao luu hang hoa giuta cac viing mien trong mot qud'c gia, giuta cac qud'c gia vdi qud'c gia, gdp phan thiic day phat trien kinh te, tao cdng an viec lam, cai thien dan sinh.
Dac biet, NAFTA da gdp p h i n quan trong vao thu hiit vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai, ddi mdi cdng nghe, cai td cd ca'u cic nen kinh te khu viic, nha't la cd ca'u nganh cdng nghiep cua Mexicc chd phu hdp vdi Id trinh khu viic hua, tdan cau hca cac nen kinh te, vdi qua trinh
phan cdng lai lac ddng xa hdi tren pham vi tean the gidi de hang hea lam ra d mdi nUdc deu cd ndi tieu thu.
Ben canh nhutng mat tich ciic ndi tren, NAFTA cdn met sd' ban che, can dUdc khac phuc de tdn tai va phat trien thanh cdng hdn.
Han che de thay la cac nguyen tac lien ke't va thiic hien nhiing nguyen tac nay chUa tao ra niem tin va hy vpng de cd the bie'n NAFTA thanh hat nhan cua khu viic mau dich tii do Tay Ban ciu (FTAA), nhU EU da va dang lam de thu hiit cic nUdc Nam va Ddng Au theo minh, trd thanh lien minh kinh te, dia ly - chinh tri ngay cang rdng md. Hien nay, EU da cd 25 thanh vien va cdn nhieu ifng cif vien xin gia nhap, dang dUdc xet ket nap trdng dd cd Thd Nhi Ky. Theo mot sd' nha kinh te, sd di NAFTA khdng hd'p dan cac nUdc My Latinh chu ye'u vi NAFTA dUa ra nguyen tac ket nap "Trade not Aid", dUdc hieu la cac mat hang budn ban ndi khdi khdng cd trd gia, trdng khi dd thi My lai trd gia chd cac mat hang ndng s i n xua't khau cua minh de canh tranh vdi cac mat hang cimg loai tren thi trUdng the gidi. Day chinh la mdt trong nhutng nguyen nhan lam vdng dam phan Doha cua WTO bi keo dai, chUa rd hdi ke't.
Them vao dd, NAFTA kiem scat bet sifc chat che, ddi khi hi coi la may mdc, xua't xif cac mat hang lUu thdng tren thi trUdng NAFTA, ne'u mat hang ngoai nao tieu thu nhanh, canh tranh dUdc tren thi trUdng NAFTA va
nha't la d My, thi lap tifc bi gin cho tdi ban pha gia va bi ap thue chd'ng ban pha gia, nhU My da lam ddi vdi san pham s i t thep cua Brazil, Argentina, ddi vdi cac mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam, Thai Lan,... nhap vao My viia qua.
Rd rang," NAFTA va nhat la My lam nhu vay thiic cha't la bao hd mau dich cho ca khdi NAFTA. Mac du vay, day van dUdc cci la viec lam, la hanh ddng khdng khuyen khich tien bd khoa hpc cdng nghe, khdng khuyen khich nghien cufu khoa hpc, phat minh sang che, ddi mdi cdng nghe de tang nang sua't lao ddng, ha gia thanh san pham, nang cao hieu qua san xuat... Suy cho cimg day la viec lam kim ham tie'n bd khoa hpc cdng nghe, anh hudng xau den chat lUdng cudc sd'ng cua mpi qud'c gia, hi phap luat thUdng mai the gidi tif GATT de'n WTO deu phan ddi.
Vi My la tru cdt cua NAFTA, cho nen chinh quyen mdi cua dng Barack Obama sau khi dUa dUdc nen kinh te My thoat khdi suy thoai, lieu cd chu tri va manh dan ddi mdi nhUng quy che sang lap da ldi thdi cua NAFTA, de cd the bien NAFTA thanh hat nhan cua khu viic mau dich tii do Tay Ban ciu nhu md hinh EU d chau Au de md rdng ve ca mat dia ly, hanh chinh, lan mat thi trUdng tien te chung chau Au •
Nguon: Khd ndng mdi de md rong hdp tdc Bdc My. My Latinh - sd312009.
