NGHI VICN CHnU nU Gini DOflN HflU OR€XiT
Trinh T h i Hi6n*
Tom tat: Brexit dd cd nhimg tdc ddng den the chi chinh tri cua EU, dac biet Id Nghi viin Chdu Au. Bdi viit gi&i thiiu vai trd cua Nghi viin Chdu Au trong tiin trinh ddm phdn Brexit vd tdc dpng cua Brexit den Nghi viin Chdu Au giai dogn hdu Brexit.
Tir khoa: Brexit, Nghi viin ChduAu
Abstract: Brexit has had an impact on EU political institutions, especially the European Parliament The paper introduces the role ofthe European Parliament in the Brexit negotiation process and the impact of Brexit on the European Parliament in the post-Brexit period.
Key words: Brexit, European Parliament
N g h i vien Chau Au (EP) la co quan lap phap cua Lien minh Chau Au (EU), gdm 751 tbanb vien do cii tri EU bau 5 nam mgt lan.
Nghi vien Cbau Au gdm 8 nhdm cbu yeu dua tren cac mdi lien ket chinb tri va y tbiic he se dai dien cho Ipi ich cua cong dan cac nudc thanh vien. Mgt trong nhung vai trd cua EP la xem xet va thdng qua cac luat do Uy ban Chau Au (EC) de xuk. Nghi vien ciing chiu trach nhiem bau chii tich EC va phe duyet ngan sach EU
Su kien Brexit da cd nhimg tac dgng nhat dinh den td chiic, boat dgng va vai trd
Ths, Vien Nghien ciru Chau Au Nhan hdi ngdy. 30/5/2019 Phdn bien xong 8/6/2019 Chdp nhdn ddng 15/6/2019
Ciia Nghi vien Chau Au. Bai viet gidi thieu ve vai trd cua EP trong tien trinb dam phan Brexit, du bao tac ddng cua Brexit ddn EP giai doan hau Brexit.
1. Vai tro ciia EP trong tien trinh dam phan Brexit
Gidng nhu cac nghi vien qudc gia khac, EP cung td cbiic cac nghi sT vao ttong cae iiy ban nhu Uy ban Ddi ngoai, Uy ban Ngan sach, Uy ban ve Quyen con ngudi,... Ddng thdi, cac nghi sT ciing dugc xep lai theo he tu ttrdng va phan thanh cac nhdm chinh tri (tuong tia' nhu cac dang chinb tti kliac nhau trong nghi vien quoc gia). Theo sy phan loai nay, cd nhiing nhdm chinh tri co ban nhu:
Nhdm cac dang nhan dan va dan cbu cbau Au; Nhdm cac dang xa hdi chau Au; Nhdm cac dang ty do, dan chii va cai each cbau Au;
Qtghi ifien ^hda. C^XL... 75
Nhdm cac dang xanh,... va cd ca mdt nhdm cac nghi sT ty do kbdng thudc ve nhdm dang chinh tri nao.
Tam anb budng, tac dgng cua EP dugc thuc hien tten 3 phuong dien: thdng qua qua trinh lap phap, thdng qua qua trinb ngan sach va thdng qua viec giam sat boat ddng ciia cac CO quan hanh phap'. EP cdn dugc ggi la Qudc hpi Chau Au tuong duong nhu Ha vien cd 5 quyen ban co ban sau: 1) Quyen lap phap (ciing vdi Hdi ddng Chau Au la co quan lap phap, cd quyen luc nhu nhau ttong mdt sd ITnb vuc cbinh sach); 2) Cung vdi Hgi ddng Chau Au cd quyen pbe duyet ngan sach cua EU; 3) Cd quyen phe chuan ngan sach cua EC, giam sat, chat van Uy ban va Hdi ddng, cung nhu trieu tap cac uy ban tbam
van va dieu tra nbung bien tugng quan ly kem trong viec thuc bien phap luat cua Cdng ddng; 4) Cd quyen bd nhiem lien quan tdi mdt sd the che bao gdm ca EC; 5) La the che duy nhat trong EU cd quyen giai tan Uy ban khi dat dupe su ddng thuan trong Nghi vien".
EP cd vai trd trong qua trinb dam phan Brexit dugc gidi ban frong viec phe chuan thda thuan nit lui giua EU va Anh. Tuy nhien, EP da tim each anh hudng den qua trinh theo nhieu each khac nhau. Viec tbanb lap Nhdm tu van ve Brexit cbo thay EP mudn trd thanh mdt tac nhan ddng vai ttd chu chdt. Tir dd, EP da sit dung tbam quyen lap hien ciia minb qua viec ban hanh mgt sd nghi quyet Brexit neu cbi tiet cac uu tien ciia Nghj vien. Muc dich cua cac nghi quyet nay la lam rd quan diem cua EP ve Brexit.
^ Hoang Tnrcmg Giang, Mo hinh eita EU vd hdm y ' Dinh Cong Tudn, Tdc dgng cua khung hodng na chinh sdch cho Cong dong ASEAN, conp tdi the rhJkinh t4 rhl„h fr, ru^ THn minh Chdu http://dl.ueb.edu.vn/bitstream/1247/8904/l/Hoang%2
' .i.;J::.. • •. v:i, 2016, tr.64. 0Truong%20Giang.pdf, tmy cap ngay 15/1/2018.
76
NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°4(225).2019Ngay 28/06/2016
05/04/2017 03/10/2017 13/12/2017
14/03/2018
Bang 1: Cdc Nghi quyet cua EP ve Brexit da du(fc thong qua Nghi quyet
Nghi quySt Nghi vien Chau Au ngay 28 thang 6 nam 2016 ve quyet dinh rcri khoi EU do cuoc tmng cau dan y 0 Anh
Cac cupc dam phan vai Vuong quoc Anh sau thong bao Anh du dinh riit khoi Lien minh Chau Au
Nghi quyet cua Nghi vien Chau Au ngay 3 thang 10 nam 2017 ve tinh trang dam phan vai Vuang Quoc Anh Nghi quyet ctia Nghi vien Chau Au ngay 13 thang 12 nam 2017 ve tinh trang dam phan voi Vuang Quoc Anh
Huang dan ve lihuon kho quan he EU-UK trong tuang lai
S 6 M E P thong qua 395 (52,6%)
516(68,7%) 557 (74,2%) 556 (74%)
544 (72,4%)
Ngudn: Oliver Patel, The EU and the Brexit Negotiations: Institutions, Strategies and Objectives, https://www.uclac.uk/european-institute/sites/european- institute/files/eu_and_the_brexit_negotiations.pdf, truy cap ngdy 14/5/2019.
Mac dii cac nghi quyet cua EP khdng cd ngbia vu thye hien bat budc tai EU, tuy nhien EP ciing da cd gang nang cao vi tri cua EU va do dd tam quan trgng cua EP ciing phan nao dugc nban manh.
Nam 2009, Hiep udc Lisbon cd hieu luc da trao cho EP quyen pbu quyet cac hiep dinh thuong mai va quyen dugc Uy ban thdng bao ve tten trinh cua hg. Ke tir do, EP trd nen quyet doan va cd anli hudng hon. EP da tbanb cdng anh hudng den qua trinh Brexit d viec EP cd mat trong vi tti dam phan chinh tbiic ciia EU. Ben canh dd, neu Uy ban va cac nhdm dam phan ciia Anb dat dugc ddng y mdt thda thuan nit lui va tuyen bo ve mdt mdi quan be trong tuang lai, thi dieu nay can phai dugc EP va Hdi ddng Cbau Au chap tbuan va EP can phai phe chuin thda thuan riit lui nay. Uy ban ve cac
van de lap bien cua EP (AFCO) se dua ra mdt bao cao vdi cac khuyen nghj. Neu Nghi vien phe chuan thda tbuan, tbi viec phe chuan cua nd se yeu cau mdt cugc bd phieu da sd dil dieu kien ttong Hdi ddng, ngbia la it nhat 55% cac qudc gia tbanh vien, chiem it nhat 65% dan sd EU ung bd. Vuong quoc Anh se kbdng bd phieu ve viec phe chuan thda thuan nit lui. Tuy nhien, 73 MEP ciia Anb cd the bd phieu ve thda thuan nit lui trong EP^
Ngoai viec ddi hdi Quoc hdi Anh phai phe chuan thda tbuan, cac nghi sT Anh se bd phigu ve thda tbuan nit lui va tuyen bd ehinh
Oliver Patel, The EU and the Brexil Negotiations Institutions, Strategies and Objectives, https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european- institute/sites/european-
institute/fiies/eu_and_the_brexit_negotiations.pdf, truy cao neav 14/5/2019.
QLghl men ^hdu chi.... 11
tri ttudc khi EP bd phieu. Thda thuan nit lui khdng yeu cau phe chuan trong nudc ciia timg qudc gia thanh vien la do Dieu 50 trao tham quyen ddc quyen cho cac td chiic EU dam phan va ket Iuan viec nit khdi ciia mdt qudc gia, va thda thuan nit lui khdng dugc phan loai la mgt thda thuan hdn hgp yeu cau phe chuan trong nudc. Tuy nhien, thda tbuan cudi ciing ve mdi quan he tuong lai gan nhu chac cban se la mgt thda thuan bdn hgp, do la mgt thda thuan giiia EU va mgt nudc tbii ba cd chiia cac yeu td cua ca EU va tham quyen cua qudc gia tbanh vien. Di8u do cd ngbia la thda thuan cudi ciing se cAn phai dugc phe chuan d moi qudc gia thanh vien, cd kha nang lien quan den ban ba muoi nghi vien qudc gia va khu vye.
2. Tac ddng cua Brexit den EP Brexit tdc dpng den EP tren cdc khia cgnh
Thie nhdt, nd se cd tac ddng dang ke den thanh phan EP kbi khdng cdn 73 ghd cua cac nghi SI Anh. Thu hai, nd se thay ddi tbanb phan ciia cac nhdm cbinh tri va anh hudng den su can bang cbinh tri trong EP. Thir ba, nd dat ra cau hdi ve vai trd cua MEP Anb frong nhimg nam cdn lai vdi tu each tbanb vien keo dai den cudc bau cii true tiep nam 2019 va xa bon la su lien ket giiia cac cbinh tri gia Anb va EU hau Brexit.
Hau Brexit, khi Anh khdng cdn la thanh vien EU, se cd mdt hieu iing kich thich dang ke ve quy md va thanh phan cua cac nhdm cbinh fri trong EP, se anii budng den tinh hgp phap ve su can bang cua cac nhdm trong EP trong qua trinb hoach dinb chinh
sach. Trudc bet, quy md cua cac tac ddng nay cd the dugc suy ra ttr sy phan phdi MEP cua Anb bien nay giiia cac nhdm cbinh tri khac nhau.
De dam bao sy rdi di ciia 73 ghd MEP Anh, Nghi vien Chau Au ciing vdi Hgi ddng Cbau Au cung da ra cac quydt dinh dd phan phdi Iai mdt phan ciia 73 ghe cua Anh cho 14 qudc gia: Phap (1), Tay Ban Nha (+5), Italia va Ha Lan (+3), tteland (+2), Ao, Croatia, Dan Mach, Estonia, Phan Lan, Ba Lan Romania, Slovakia va Thuy Didn (+1), tiic la 27 gbd^
Vdi tdng sd ghd ttong EP la 751 ghe, viec tir bd sd lugng dai bieu cua cac MEP dupe bau d Anh (73 ghe) se cd tac dgng ldn den viec binh thanh cac nhdm dang chinb trong Quoc hgi. EP dua ra quydt dinh tren co sd tuyet ddi da sd phieu dugc ap dung cho cac quyet dinh quan ttgng nhu: Cac quyet dinb lien quan den tbii tuc lap phap thdng thudng hoac cac van de ngan sach. Sd phieu can thiet ddi vdi da sd tuyet ddi se giam tii 376 phieu xudng con 340.
Tac ddng chinb tri ro rang nhat se la khdng cdn MEP cua Anh ttong EP. Dieu nay chii yeu se anh budng den mdt sd nhdm chinb tri: Nhdm S&D (Lien minb tien bg Xa bdi va Dan cbu 187 thanh vien) se mat 20 tbanb vien tir MEP Lao dgng Anh; ECR (dang Bao thii va Cai each Chau Au, 73 tbanb vien) se khdng cdn bao gdm 19 nghi sT cua Dang Bao thu ; EFDD (Chau Au Ty do
European Elections 2019,
httpV/www.europarl.europa.eu/pdfs/news/expert/lOig /2/service/20180820SRV10205/elections-press-kit- en.pdf,n-uy cap ngay 1/6/2019.
78
NGHIEN CUfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019va Dan chii Tryc tiep, 43 tbanh vien) se mat 19 nghi si tir UKIP (Dang Doc lap Anb) va Nhdm Lien miiili Tu do Xanb/Chau Au, se bi anh hudng nang ne khi mat 6 MEP.
Su ra di aia MEP Anh se ddn din nhUng hgu qud tuc th&i sau day:
Nhdm Ty do va Dan chu True tiep Cbau Au (EFDD) cd tbanh phkn ldn nhat la UKIP se khdng dat dugc tieu cbi du dieu kien cbo mdt nhdm nghj si chinh thirc (25 MEP tir 7 qudc gia thanh vien) vdt sd lugng MEP giam xudng cdn 24, dan den mat anh budng va cd nguy CO bi giai the.
Nhdm Dang bao thii va Cai each Chau Au (ECR) se mat dai dien chinh va ddng chu ticb ngudi Anh, Syed Kamall. Nhdm nay dugc tbanb lap bdi dang Bao tbu Anh nam 2009 va dang Phap Iuat va Cdng ly (PiS) la nhdm ldn thii bai vdi 18 thanh vien. Mac dii nd khdng gidng nhu EFDD va khdng cd nguy CO bi giai the ngay lap tiic, tuy nhien viec mat cac thanh vien ngudi Anh se lam giam tu each tbanh vien cua bp xudng cdn khoang 50 MEP. Nhung mat khac dieu dd khdng anh hudng den viec nhdm se van tdn tai va van la nhdm Idn thir tu.
Nhdm Xa hdi va Dan cbu (S&D) se bi thiet bai do sy ra di cua 20 MEP Lao ddng Anb va ciing se bi thiet hai do sy dai dien yeu ban cua cac dang vien ma ket qua trong cudc bau cir qudc gia da giam (vi du SPD Diic, PS Phap, PvdA Ha Lan va Dang Dan cbu Xa bdi Thuy Dien, vao thang 9 nam 2018 da dat sd phidu 28,4%, kit qua tdi te nhat trong lich sir cua hg). Do do, S&D se giam xudng 137 gh6. Sy suy giam sd lugng
nay ciia S&D cung se anh budng den kha nang binh thanh da sd trong EP.
Nhdm Lien minb Tu do Xanh/Cbau Au, se bi anb hudng nang ne kbi mat 6 MEP (3 UK Greens, 2 SNP, 1 Stripe Cymru) va giam tir 51 xudng cdn 45 ghe.
Cbau Au ciia cac qudc gia va cac quyen tu do (ENF), do Marine Le Pen ddng chu tti, se chi mat mgt thanh vien va se tdn tai nhung se chi d nguang ciia sd qudc gia dugc yeu cau thanh lap mdt nhdm. Do dd, chii nghia dan tiiy trong Qudc hdi cd the bi suy yeu dang ke.
Dang Nhan dan Cbau Au (EPP) - nhdm chinb tri chinb trong EP vdi 219 MEP, ttiy dugc du bao la thiet bai khdng cao nhung so lupng MEP van giam xudng dudi mdc 200 ngudi. Hon niia, cac dang chinh tao nen nhdm ciing dang suy giam tai cac qudc gia, bat dau vdi CDU/CSU cua Dire, chiem ldi 3 3 % sd phieu trong cudc tdng tuyen cir d Diic vao thang 9 nam 2017. Neu nhiing xu budng nay dugc xac nhan bang thdng bao, EEP se bi giam khoang 40 ghe (xudng khoang 180 MEP).
Tir nam 1979, hai dang da dii de dat dugc da sd trong EP de td chtic cudc bau cii ve Chu tich EP va phan phdi cac cbiic vu khac trong EP. Da sd nay cung la mgt didm tbam chi^u cho viec phan phdi cac ttach nhiem chinh ttong cac the che chung (Hdi dong Cbau Au, Uy ban, Dai dien cap cao, v.v.). Tuy nhien, giai doan hau Brexit cd the hai nhdm chinh ttong EP (EPP va S&D) se kbdng cdn cd thd tao thanh da sd ddc lap. Bdi cac du bao gan day nhat cho thdy 180 ghd cho EPP va 137
Qfighl eien &tda CAM,..
79
ghS cho S&D, cd nghia la bai dang chinh vdi tong 317 gbd se khdng cdn chiem da sd tuyet ddi (353) ttong E P I Vdi nbung tac ddng nay, cau tnic eua cac nhdm Nghi vien va sy can bang quyen lyc ciia nd cd the se rat khac sau Brexit. Ve lau dai, su thay ddi ciing se cimg cd dang canh ta trong EP, vi ke tir cudc bSu cir EP nam 1999, 2/3 sd ghe ciia Anh da thudc ve cac nhdm dang trung hiiu.
Brexit ciing se anh hudng den ket qua sau bau cir EP, khi cac MEP mdi dugc bau ciia Anb cbi ed the tam thdi nban chiic, dieu dd cd ngbia la viec xay dyng lien minb giiia cac nhdm dang cd the se dien ra trong bdng tdi cua Brexit. Trong EU27, se cd mdt lo ngai rang mpt EP cbia re ban va se khd khan hon khi EP ddng vai ttd la nha lap phap cbo chinh phil va EP ciing cd vai trd ngang hang vdi cac chinb pbu EU trong viec quyet dinh bau het cac cbinh sach ciia EU, va cd tieng ndi ve ngan sach EU va trong cudc hgp cua Uy ban EU. Nd ciing cd vai trd quan frpng ddi vdi nhiing thay ddi quan trpng trong chinh phil d mgt sd qudc gia tbanb vien chu chdt ttong hai nam qua (gan day la Tay Ban Nha).
Nhiing thay doi nay se cd tac ddng ngay lap tiic den each thiic boat ddng ciia EU.
Hoat ddng dau tien ciia EP mdi dugc bau se la bau cu Chii tich Uy ban va tiep theo la mgt loat cac vi tri d cac the che kliac (Hdi ddng, Ngan hang Trung uong va Nghi vien Chau Au, va Dai dien doi ngoai). Mac dii cac
cbinh phil EU ttong Hdi ddng Chau Au chinb thiic de xuat mdt iing cir vien cho Chii tich Uy ban, nbung ung cir vien dd phai den tir nhdm chinh tri ldn nhat ttong Qudc hdi mdi dupe bau nhu hai trudng hgp gan day la Jose Manuel Barroso va lean Claude Juncker. Neu Nghi vien bac bd iing cir vien ciia Hdi ddng Chau Au, cac nha lanh dao phai de xuat mdt iing cir vien mdi .
Bdu cu Nghi viin Chdu Au
Cudc b k cir EP nhiem ky 2019-2024, dupe tien hanh tir ngay 23 den ngay 26 thang 5 vira qua, ttong dd tren 400 trieu cir tri tren toan chau Au se bd phieu de bau 751 tbanh vien EP. Do cac thda thuan dam phan Brexit giii'a EU va Vuong qudc Anh chua dat dugc thda tbuan. Do dd, Anb van la thanh vien cua EU va cac cii tti Anh van tham gia cudc bau cii EP ian nay. Day la cudc bau cu EP lan tbii 9 kd tir ian dau tien dugc td chuc vao nam 1979, ttong dd so cir tti tbam gia bd phiSu thu hep dan va dat mii'c 43% vao nam 2014.
Trong ky bau cir nay, ti le bd phieu d 28 qudc gia EU chiem 5 1 % - miic ky luc ttong 20 nam qua. Trong khi do, ti le cir tti tbam gia vao cudc bau cu EP gan day nhat vao nam 2014 ghi nhan mire thap lich sir kbi chi dat dudi 4 3 % , tren 50% cu tti la nam 1994 (56,6%) va cudc bd phieu dau tien vao nam 1979 - kbi EU mdi chi cd 9 qudc gia - cd ti Ie cu tri di bau cao nhat vdi 62%. Theo dd, ti le
^ European Parliament Elections 2019 - the impact of Brexit, http://www.lawsocieties.eu/news/european- parhament-e!ections-2019-the-impact-of-
n„_:„i, ^ . „ . A „ „ „ A . , 12/5/2019.
*• The European Elections and Bre.xit, https'//ukandeu ac.uk/wp-
contenl/uploads/2019/05/The-European-eIections- and-Brexit.pdf, truy cap ngay 1/6/2019.
NGHIEN CiJrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225».2019
di bau tai Phap udc dnh dat 19,26%, cao hon so vdi cac dgt ban cir nam 2014 cbi d miic 15,70% va 14,81% nam 2009; ti le cir tri di bd phieu tai Hmigary chi chimg 26% va 29%. O Ba Lan khoang 32,51%, gap ddi con sd nam 2014. Ti le nay ciing dat gkn 50% d Tay Ban ISTha, tang tir 34% vao nam 2014. Mdt sd nudc nhu Hungary, Romania, miic tang len tdi 15%. Ty Ie di bau cir EP tai Anh nam nay udc tinh 45%, tang manh so vdi cac ky trudc.
Dang chii y la khdng cd nudc nao cd ti le di bau dudi 20%^
Viec ti le cir tri di bau cao phan anb su quan tam ngay cang ldn tdi thiet che quan ttpng duy nhat cua EU dupe bau ra theo hinh thuc tryc tiep. Nd ciing cd them tinh cbinh dang cua EP trong bdi canh cac thiet che cam quyen ciia EU dang bi cbi trich manh me, cho rang nd khdng dai dien cho y cbi ciia nhan dan. Ket qua nay ciing phan nao cbo thay ngudi dan cbau Au ngay cang tin rang cac van de dugc quan tam cao nhu an ninh, ngudi ti nan, kinb te-xa hgi hay bien ddi khi hau cbi cd the tim ra dugc giai phap bieu qua thdng qua su phdi hgp cua nhieu nudc thanh vien. Tuy nhien, cac nghien ciiu va khao sat ciing chi ra rang ti Ie cir tri di bau tang ttd Iai chu yeu den tir nhdm nbiing ngudi ung bd cac dang chdng lai cbau Au va cac dang dan tiiy. Dieu do ciing cho thay nhiing lo ngai trong mau tbuan tai chau Au.
Theo kdt qua so bd cugc bau cir EP, hai nhdm dang bao thii la dang Nlian dan cbau Au (EPP) va Lien minh tidn bd xa bdi va dan chu (S&D) vin la hai nhdm dang manh nhat.
Tuy vay, vdi s6 gbd giam manh, bai nhdm dang EPP va S&D ian dSu tien trong hon 20 nam se khdng cdn chiem dugc da sd tai EP.
Trong khi dd, anb hudng cua cac nhdm dang Ty do va dang Xanh gia tang trong EP va dy kien hai nhdm EPP va S&D se thanh lap lien minh vdi dang Ty do (d vi tti thir ba) va dang Xanh (d vi tri thii tu). Nhu vay, cac dang img bg tang cuong EU gianh dugc 2/3 sd ghe ttong EP. Cac dang cue hiiu, hoai nghi cbau Au va dan tgc chii nghia ciing cd them anh hudng nhung kbdng du de can trd sy van hanh cua cac thiet che chau Au khi cbi chiem khoang 22,9% va phe dan tdc chii nghia cbi gianh dugc thang loi tai mdt sd it qudc gia nhu: Phap, Italy va Hungary. Cu thd: EPP gianh dupe 179 ghd, S&D dugc 153 ghe, Lien minb Ty do va Dan chu Chau Au dugc 105 ghe, dang Bao thu va Cai each Chau Au (ECR) cd 63 ghe, Chau Au vi ty do va dan chii true tiep gianh 54 ghe, Canh ta thdng nhat cbau Au/Canh ta xanh Bac Au (GUE/NGL) gianh 38 ghd. Dang chii y nhdt la nhdm Qudc gia Chau Au va Tu do (ENF) gianh 58 ghe tang 30 ghe so vdi nam 2014 va dang Xanh gianh dupe 69 ghd trong EP, thanh tich tdt nhat ciia dang nay tir trudc den nay. Cdn 32 ghe thudc ve cac nghi si trung lap (kdt qua ttnb dSn ngay 29/5/2019)^
^ Elections 2019- highest turnout in 20years, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/eu- affairs/20190523STO52402/elections-20l9-highest- tumout-in-20-years, truy cap ngay 1/6/2019.
European Elections 2019, https://www european- elections.eu/, truy cap ngay 1/6/2019.
Qfighl elln &ida c^...
81
Sy suy giam cua cac dang truyen thdng cua EU, trudc bet phai ke den that bai cua nhiing dang tmyen thdng vdn giii vai ttd quan ttgng tai cac nudc Idn. 0 Diic, lien dang Lien minh Dan cbu Co ddc giao/Lien minh Xa hdi Co ddc giao (CDU/CSU) mk tdi hon 7% sd phieu. Tai Phap, phong trao Nen Cgng hda tien budc cua Tdng thong Enunanuel Macron that the trudc dang cue hiiu Tap hgp qudc gia. Tai Hy Lap, dang Syriza chi xep thii hai sau dang Dan cbu mdi cua phe bao tbu ddi lap.
Tai Anh, vdi ket qua kiem phieu so bd, dang Brexit, cbinh dang mdi thanh lap cd lap trudng ung hd Anh rdi EU ma khdng can thda tbuan, do nguyen Cbu ticb dang Ddc lap
Vuong qudc Anb (UKIP) Nigel Parage lanh dao, thang Idn vdi 31,7% sd phieu img hg.
Trong kbi dd, dang Bao thii cam quyen va Cdng dang lan lugt gianh dugc 18,6% va 14,1% phieu. Vdi ket qua nay, dang "Brexit"
mdi thanh lap gianh chien thang to ldn va cd 28 ghe nghi sT tai Nghi vien cbau Au, trong khi dd, phe bao thu da danh mat di vi tri vdn cd cua minh va chi diing d vi tti thir nam.
Ket qua ciia cudc bau cii EP tai Anh ciing se cd tac dgng den viec lya chgn phuang an nao cho Brexit va viec lya chpn tan Thu tudng ciia nudc Anb ttong tbdi gian tdi khi Thu tudng Theresa May da chinh thiic tir chirc vao ngay 7/6/2019 vira qua.
Bang 2: Ket qud sff bp bdu cir Nghi viin Chdu An: 2019 - 2024 Nghi vien Chau Au: 2019 - 2024
Ngudn: European Elections 2019, https://www.european-elections.eu/ truy cap ngdy 1/6/2019.
Trudc khi b^u cir EP diln ra, lyc lugng cue biiu va dan tiiy chiem uu the tai nhieu nudc nhu Italia, Phap hay Hungary. Cudc
European Elections 2019, tldd.
ban cu EP da cbo thay su that the ciia cac dang trung dimg tai chau Au va su thang the cua phe cue hiru, khi ian dau tien ke tii' nam 1979, EEP va S&D khdng thd hinh tbanb
82
NGHIEN CIJTU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019mdt cap khdi dang trung ta va trung hiiu de dan dat cbau Au. Hg se phai lien minh vdi khdi dang thir ba, ddng nghia cd them cac dang tham gia vao cac quyet sach tuong lai.
Hai khdi dang ldn khdng cdn ty ddng chiem da sd nira. Dieu nay se cd tac ddng den tien trinh ra chinh sach tai chau Au, khi cac van de ve: Mdi trudng, nhap cu, chdng Hoi giao hda hay ban che quyen luc cua Uy ban chau Au... ciing se dupe ban thao nhieu ban.
Bau cu EP 2019 ciing la mdt budc tien niia ddi vdi cac dang dan tiiy va cyc hiiu, khdng chi d cac nudc ldn trong EU, cac qudc gia nhd ciing chiing kien sy ldn manh khd cudng ciia phe dan tiiy. Tuy nhien, viec cac dang dan tuy va cyc hiiu cd mat trong lien minh cam quyen d EP bay khdng van la mgt dau bdi Idn.
De ngan cban nguy ca kbien EP rai vao tinh trang rdi loan, khdi trung biiu truyen thdng tai EP cd the lien minh vdi cac tbanh vien cua dang Xanh, cung nhu cac dang ty do. Van de dat ra, la khdi dang Xanh va tu do dudng nhu khdng cung dudng Idi vdi bai dang trung hihi truyen thdng dang cbi phdi cac chinh sach cbau Au bien nay. Ngugc lai, khdi dang Xanh va tu do cd quan diem gidng nhu cac nhdm hoai nghi cbau Au, la mudn cai each va lam mdi EU. Day se la rao can doi vdi kha nang lien minh giiia pbe trung huu va khdi dang Xanh
Tdm lgi, sy kien Brexit da cd nhirng tac dgng tnrc ti6p dhn nhidu ITnh vuc kinh te, chinb tri va xa bdi cua EU, cung nhu cua Vuong qudc Anb va ciia nhieu qudc gia tren thd gidi. Brexit ciing tac ddng den td chitc hoat ddng va vai trd cua cac the che EU, dac biet la Nghi vien Cbau Au. Brexit phan nao tac dgng den cudc bau cir cua EP khi ngudi dan Anh di bd phidu vdi mdt tam the Anh sap rdi EU va tac ddng true tidp den ket qua sau bau cii EP, kbi cac MEP Anh se rdi EU.
Hau Brexit, neu Anh thye su rdi khdi EU se cd nbiing tac ddng den vai trd, cau tnic the cbe cua EU, tac ddng it nhat ddi vdi Uy ban va nhieu hon ddi vdi Hgi ddng, Hdi ddng cbau Au va EP. Ndu Anb rut khdi EU, mgt ttong nhiing hieu iing don gian nhat la mgt tbyc te rang cac quan chiic va dai dien cua Anb trong cac the che cua EU se phai rdi di. Do do, Vuong qudc Anh se khdng cdn bat ky MEP, Uy vien hoac Tbam phan nao tai Tda an Cdng ly Chau Au. Vuong qudc Anh da la tbanb vien cua EU trong bon bdn thap ky, dieu nay se khdng chi anh hudng den cac the cbe ve mat sd lugng trong qua ttinh hoach dinh chinh sach. Them vao do, EU se phai dieu chinh eac Hiep udc ciing nhu cac quy dinh phap Iy khac.
'" B&u cii- Nghi vien Chdu Au: Mpt buoc tien r.
vai cdc ddng ddn tuy vd cue him.
http://www,tapchicongsan.org.vn/Hoinc/PrintStory.as px?distribution=55032&pnnt=true,
truy cap ngay 1/6/2019.
Qlghi oien ^hdu. cmi...
83
Tai lieu tham khao 1. Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, Brexit maze The role of EU institutions in the negotiations,
https ://www.cer. eu/sites/default/tiles/pb_bre xit_institutions_5.7.17.pdf.
2. Brexit's Impact on the EU Institutions: Immediate implications and possibilities for reformm,
https ://vt'ww. fiia.fi/en/publication/brexits- impact-on-tbe-eu-institutions.
3. EU elections countdown #7 Brexit delay and the next European Parliament, https://viww.dbresearcb.com/PROD/RPS_E N-
PROD/PROD0000000000487617/EU_electt ons_countdown_%231 %3 A_Brexit_delay_a nd_the_ne.pdf.
4. How are the EU institutions and European countries preparing for Brexit?, https://alerts.pinsentmasons.coni/rs/emsdocu ments/PDFs/brexit-european-
perspective.pdf.
5. Michele Finck, Brexit and the European Institutions,
https://papers.ssm.com/sol3/papers.cfin7abst ract_id=2941370.
6. Negotiating Brexit: the views of the EU27,
https://www.instittiteforgovemment.org.uk/si tes/default/files/publications/IfG_views-eu- 27-v5_WEB.pdf.
7. Oliver Patel, The EU and the Brexit Negotiations: Institutions, Strategies and Objectives,
bttps ://www.ucI. ac.uk/european- institute/sites/european-
institute/files/eu_and_the_brexit_negotiation s.pdf.
8. The 2019 European Election: How anti — Eurropeans Plan to Wreck Europe And What can be done to stop it,
https://www. ecfi:.eu/specials/scorecard/the_2 019_European_election
9. Tim Oliver, Brexit: What Happens Next?,
http://wvi'w.lse. ac .uk/ideas/Assets/Document s/updates/LSE-IDEAS-Brexit-What- Next.pdf.
10. The next "battle for Europe"?
European Parliament elections 2019, bttps://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RPS_E N-
PROD/PROD0000000000480268/European _Pariiament_elections_2019%3 A_Tbe_next _%E2%80%9Cbatt.pdf.
11. What happens if Brexit is delayed until after the European elections?, https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elect ions/2019/02/what-happens-if-brexit- delayed-until-after-european-elections.
