KINH TE
XAY Dl/NG CHI SO GIA CAN HO CHUNG ClT:
NGHIEN c t f u THl/C NGHIEM TAI THANH PHO HO CHI MINH
» NGUYEN NGQC VINH
TOM TAT:
Chi so'gia cd y nghla quan trong trong viec phat trien thi trtfdng ba't ddng san, la cdsd cho cd quan quan ly nha ntfdc va cac nha dau ttf hoach dinh chien lu'dc phat tridn... Trong nghidn ctfu nay, chi sd' gia can ho tai thanh pho' Hd Chi Minh dtfdc tfdc Itfdng dtfa tren md hinh gia thu hifdng (Hedonic Pricing Model) bang 2 phu'dng phap, la: Hdi quy bien gia theo thdi gian (Time Dummy Variable) va phtfdng phap gan gia (Price Imputation Method).
Ttf khda: Chi sd'gia, can hd.bCt ddng san.
I.DatvS'ndd
Chi so' gia bat dong san (BDS) la mdt trong nhtfng chi tieu quan trong cua qud'c gia, diing de phan tich su" bidn ddng ve gia cua thi trifdng BDS tai dia phtfdng va ca ntfdc, nham cd cd sd trong viec ban hanh cac chinh sach phat trien dn dinh thi tru'dng day tiem nang nay va gdp phan giai quyd^t Ciic van dd an sinh - xa hoi tai dja phtfdng. Nghi dinh sd 97/2016/ND - CP ngay 1/7/2016 ve viec xay dtfng he thdng chi tieu thd'ng ke qud'c gia, trong dd cd quy dinh cdng bd' ve chi so' gia bat dong san bao gdm ciin hd chung cu'. Nham htfdng dan trien khai thtfc hien, Bd Xay difng da ban hanh Thdng ttf ,sd 20/2010/TT BXD ngay 27/10/2010 va Thdng itf sd 19/2014/TT - BXD ngay 10/12/2014 nham htfdng dan thi diem xay dtfng va cdng bd' chi sd' gia BDS tai cac thanh phd' Ho Chi Minh, Ha Ndi, Da NSng va C^n Thd. La thanh phd' dau tau kinh te ca ntfdc. thanh phd' Hd Chi Mmh sd'Itfdng can hd chung cu'tang ra't nhanh
trong cac nam qua, nhtfng viec xac dinh chi sd' gia can hd van chifa difdc cdng bd'. Do vay, viec nghien ctfu xay du'ng chi sd' gia can hd tai thanh phd Ho Chi Minh se gdp phan hoan thien cd sd ly luan va phtfdng phap tfdc Itfdng nham tien tdi cdng bd'chi sd'gia bat ddng san ndi chung, can hd chung ctf ndi rieng trdn toan qud'c.
2. Cd s6r ly luSn
Chi sd' gia ba't ddng san la chi sd the hien sif bidn thien ve gia cua mot dang ba't ddng san cu the trong ky so sanh vdi mtfc gia cua ba't ddng san dang dd d ihdi ky gd'c. Gia dufdc tinh cho chi so gia ba't ddng san la gia giao dich va ky tinh cd the la thang. quy hay nam. tuy theo khoang thdi gian can thie't cho viec so sanh ve gia. Thtfc td, cd 2 each tinh chi sd'gia cho ttfng dang bS't ddng san hay tinh chi sd gia tong hdp cho mot nhdm ba't dong san phd bidn (bao gdm nhieu dang bat ddng san). Ve cd biin ne'u tinh chi sd' gia bat ddng san tdng hdp Cling dtfa tren each tinh tren ttfng dang rieng le.
So 19-Thdng 10/2019 67
TAP CHi CONG THlfflNt
sau dd mdi tdng hdp theo trong so'dtfdc xac dinh.
Trong nghien ctfu nay chi tinh chi so' gia cho can hd chung cu'tai thanh phd'Ho Chi Minh.
Khung ly Ihuyet cho nghien ctfu nay dtfdc tdng hdp ttf ly thuyet Cung cau (Theory of Supply and Demand), ly thuyet Gia thu hu'dng (Theory of Hedonic Prices) va ly thuyet Vi the - Cha't lifdng (Status - Quality Theory). Ly thuyet Gia thu htfdng dtfdc van dung phd bie'n trong cac nghien ctfu cua Goodman (1998), Triplex (2004), Brent R.Moulton (2001). Kunovac (2008), Goetzman (2002), Pavese (2007), Nguydn Quynh Hoa va cdng 81/(2013, 2015), Nguydn Qud'c Nghi va cdng stf (2012) Do vay, tac gia stf dung ly thuyet nay lam ly thuyet nen trong viec phSn tich va xay dtfng md hinh nghien ctfu.
Tong hdp cac nghien ctfu trong va ngoai nu'dc ve viec tfdc tinh chi sd' gia cho can hd chung ctf cd Ciic clch tidp can sau: Tiep can bang phu'dng phap hdi quy da bien, Tidp can bang phtfdng phap phan tich cac giao dich lap lai; Tiep can ttf thdng ke trung binh, trung vj; Va tie'p can ttf phan tich dtf lieu Idn (big data). Mdi each tidp can cd Ifu, nhtfdc diem neng. Trong nghidn ctfu nay, tac gia stf dung tiep can bang phu'dng phap hdi quy da bie'n, dtfa tren md hinh gia thu hifdng bao gdm ciic dac tinh cua can hg chung ctf nhtf dien tich san, lien ich ndi khu, khoang each den trung tam, tinh trang phap ly . Viec chon tiep can nay bdi vi, tinh kha thi trong dieu kien cac thdng tin ve thi trifdng ba't ddng san ndi chung, can hd chung cif noi rieng vtfa thidu vtfa kem minh bach, cac thdng tin ve cdc giao dich lap lai hau nhtf khdng Sd s6: Khung phan tich
cd, gia giao dich thiTc va gia ghi tren hdp ddng cdng chtfng trong nhieu trtfdng hdp cd stf khac biet Idn... Mat khac, each tiep can hdi quy dtfa tren md hinh hedonic da dtfdc stf dting rong rai tai cdc ntfdc phat trien.
3. Khung ph^n tich
Ttf viec khao Itfdc cac ly thuyet phuc vu phan tich ket hdp vdi long hdp cac nghien ctfu cd li6n quan. Y tifdng khung phan tich la xay dtfng ham hdi quy bdi dtfa tren ly thuyet Gia thti hifdng, cac nhdm yeu td tdc ddng len gia giao dich cua can ho chung cirbao gdm: Nhdm yeu to vi tri; Nhdm ydu Id' dac diem; Nhdm yeu to' mdi trtfdng va nhdm ye'u td' phap ly. Lan lifdt tfdc Itfdng chi sd' gia ciin hd chung ctf bang phu'dng phap gan gia (Price Imputation Method) va phifdng phdp Hoi quy bien gia theo thdi gian (Time - Dummy Variable) the hien qua Sd do sau (XemSddd)
4. Phtfdng phap nghien ctfu
Nham thtfc hien muc tieu nghien ctfu, de tai da stf dung cdc phifdng phdp phan tich sau: Phtfdng phap phan tich tdng hdp - Nham tdng hdp cac ly thuyet va cac nghien ctfu cd lien quan dtfdc su*
dung trong nham ke thtfa trong viec xay di/ng khung ly thuyet va khung phan tich.
Phu'dng phap thd'ng ke md ta - Dtfdc stf dung nham md ta bd dtf lieu khao sat phuc vu phan tich.
Qua thd'ng ke mo ta cd the hieu dtfdc ban chat cua bo dtf heu va ttf tho'ng ke md ta cijng dinh htfdng cho viec tfdc lu'dng cac gid tri dien hinh cho can h6 chung ctf.
Bd dtf lieu phan tich bao gdm so' lieu sd ca'p va thtf ca'p, sd lieu thtf ca'p cap nhat ttf Tong cue
Nhdm yeu td VI tri
Nhdm yeu to phap ly
Nhdm yeu to dac diem
Nhdm yeu to mdi trudng
Udc li/gng chi sdgia theo phu'dng phap hoi quy bien gia thdi gian
Udc luong chi sd gia theo phuong phap gian gia
Chon each udc luong chi so gia can ho td't nhat
Ngudn: Tdc gid de xudi
KINH IE
Thd'ng ke, Bd Xay dtfng va Sd Xay dtfng thanh phd' Ho Chi Minh... So lieu sd cap bao gdm khao sat y kidn chuyen gia trong ITnh vifc tham dinh gia.
dau ttf, phan tich thi tn/dng bat dong san. Va bd dtf lieu khao sat can ho chung ctf trong nam 2015 va 2016 vdi 696 quan sat chia deu cho ttfng nam.
Phifdng phap khao sat y kien chuyen gia - Thtfc hien khao sat tren 69 chuyen gia cd nhieu nam kinh nghiem trong ITnh vifc gia. Phtfdng phdp nay dtfdc stf dung nhdm cung co cho viec xay dtfng cdc bidn trong md hinh nghien ctfu, ddng thdi lam cd sd cho viec chpn cdc gia tri dien hlnh cho can hd chung ctf can tfdc Itfdng chi sd gia, nhif: Dien tich san, khoang each de'n true giao thdng chinh, sd phdng ngu. tien ich ndi khu, tinh trang phap ly...
Phtfdng phap phan tich dmh Itfdng - Dtfdc stf dung trong nghien ctfu nham tfdc Itfdng md hinh dl/bao gia giao dich cua can hd chungctf dtfa tren mau so' heu khao sat. Md hlnh Udc Itfdng dang In - lin va phifdng phap tide lifdng la: Phtfdng phdp binh phu'dng nhd nha't OLS - Ordinary Least Squares. Phan mem hd trd phan tich hdi quy va thd'ng ke md ta: Excel va SPSS. Md hinh nghien ctfu Xay difng chi sd gid can hg chung ctf theo phtfdng phap gan gia cd dang sau:
LnDG = po + I3,KC_TT + p,J^C_GTC + pjDT_S + P4T + P^'H + ji^TTjCH + pjAN + ps^T H- pgPL + ^laVTjOH + Pi/TIJTK -\- lij2Tl_NK + /3,jPV -I- iii4P_VS + £
Bang 1. Mo to bien vd ddu ky vong Bien
DG KC_TT KC_GTC DT_S T PN P_VS
H
TT_CH
TI_TK
TI_NK
AN
MT
PL
VT_CH
Y nghTa Gia giao dich can ho
Khoang each til can ho den cho Ben Thanh Khoang each ttf Id dat den true giao thong chinh Dien tich can ho
VI tri tang cDa can hd SdiUdng phdng ngu Sd phdng ve sinh
Hudng ban eong/cLia so
Tmh trang can ho
Tien ich trong khu can ho
Tien ich trong vong ban kmh 1 km xung quanh khu can hg
Tinh hinh an ninh khu vuc can hd
Mdi trudng xung quanh can hg
Tinh trang phap ly ciia can hg
Can hd la can gde hay khdng
Ddn V! tfnh/giai thfch Trieu dong/m^
km m m^
Tang Phdng Phdng V Hudng phd 0. Hudng khac 1'Mdi O.Oa quasi) dung 1, Cd 3 tien ich trd len 0:Dtrdi3tienich 1: Cd 3 tien ich trd len 0: Di/di 3 tien (ch 1:Cd 3 chi tieu trd len 0:Dudi3chitieu 1: Khdng bjd nhidm 0 : 6 nhiem 1: Cd GCN quyen sd hiJu 0: Khdng cd GCN quyen sd hUu liCangdc
0: Khdng phai can gdc
Dau ky vpng
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w
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Ngudn: Tdng hap cua tdc gid
So 19-Thong 10/2019 6 9
TAP CHJ GANG THIfdNG
Md hinh hdi quy danh cho viec tfdc Itfdng chi sd' gia can hd theo phu'dng phap bie'n gia theo thdi gian cung gid'ng nhtf md hlnh tren nhifng bo sung them bien gia TG (Time Dummy Variable) danh cho gdp 2 bd dtf lieu nam 2015 va 2016. TG nhan gia tri 0 danh cho nam 2015 va gia tri 1 danh cho nam 2016.
5. Kd't qua nghidn cifu
*:• iJdc luang chi so' gid cdn ho chung cubdng phuong phdp gdn gid:
Kdt qua phan tich hdi quy sau khi thtfc hien cac kiem dinh, phtfdng trinh hdi quy danh cho bO dtf lidu canhd chung cif nam 2015 Id'
LN(DG) = 3.116 + 0.005T - 0,046KC_TT - 0,00007KC_GTC + 0,127P_VS + 0,049PN Vdi mtfc do giai thich bie'n ddng gia can hd nam 2015 la 47,1% va md hinh la phti hdp. Dodo, kdt qua tren se difdc stf dung dd ifdc lu'dng gid cho can hd nam20l5.
Ket qua phan tich hdi quy sau cac kiem djnh trong nam 2016 la:
LN(DG) = 3,635 + 0,008T- 0,069KC_TT + 0,125TI_NK - 0,215PL+ 0,002DT_S
Cd 5 bidn giai thich bien ddng gia cua can hd ndm 2016 la 59.0% va md hinh la phii hop. Do do, ke't qud tren se dtfdc stf dung de ifdc Itfdng gia cho canhd nam20l6.
Ke't qua khao sdt chuyen gia va k6't qua dieu tra khao sat nhtfng can hd dtfdc giao dich trong 2 nam 2015 va 2016 ve dac diem can hd giao dich phd bien dtfdc tdng hdp tai Bang 2.
Stf dung cdc gid tri pho bie'n dtfdc giao dich CLia can hd trong 2 nam 2015 va 2016 de tfdc Itfdng chi sd'gia can hd ciia can hd dai dien (theo cot ket luan cua Bang 2).
Udc lifdng gia giao dich dien hinh cho can hg nam 2015: The'cac gid tri dien hinh vao md hinh, ta dtfdc:
Bang 2. Ddc diem can ho dien hinh
K l h i $ u
T K C _ T T K C ^ G T C D T _ S PN P_VS
H
T T _ C H T L T K T L N K AN M T
P L
V T _ C H
Khao sat chuyen gia
Tren 10 t a n g T U 1 k m - 3 k m TU 1 0 0 m - 3 0 0 m T U 6 0 m ^ - 1 0 0 m = 3-4 p h o n g ngu 2 p h d n g K h o n g phai h u d n g p h o Mdi TU 3-4 tien ich
Tot Td't
Khao sat can hQ nam 2 0 1 5
7 5 k m - 1 0 k m D u d i l O O m T U 6 0 m ^ - 1 0 0 m ^ 2 p h d n g 2 p h d n g
H u d n g p h d
D a q u a s i } d u n g TU 3 tien ich trd len TU 3 tien ich trd len Td't Td't
C d G C N q u y e n C o G C N q u y e n s d hOu sd hi/u
1 K h d n g phai can g d c
Khao sat can hi>
n a m 2 0 1 6
10 5 k m - 1 0 k m Dudi 1 0 0 m T L / 6 0 m ^ - 1 0 0 m ^ 2 p h o n g 2 p h o n g
H u d n g pho
Mdi TU 3 tien ich trd len TU 3 tien ieh t r d len Tot
Tot
C h t f a ed G C N q u y e n s d h i J u K h d n g phai can g d e
KetluSn
7 1 0 k m 1 0 0 m 6 5 m^
2 p h d n g 2 p h d n g
H u d n g p h d
Mdi Ttf 3 tien ich t r d len T U 3 tien ieh trd len Td't
Tot C h u a CO G C N q u y e n s d hOu K h d n g phai c a n g d c
Ngudn. Tong hap cua di tai
KINH TE
LN (DG) = 3,116 + 0,005 x 7- 0.046 X 10-0,00007x 100 + 0,127x2 + 0,049x2 LN (DG) = 3.036 Hay DG2015 = 20,82 (trieu ddng/m-)
Udc Itfdng gia giao dich dien hinh cho can hd nam 2016: The' cac gia tri dien hinh vao md hinh:
LN(DG) = 3,635 + 0,008 x 7 - 0.069 x 10 + 0,l25x 1 -0,215x0 + 0,002x 65;
Ket qua la: LN(DG) = 3,256; Hay DG2016 = 25,95 (trieu ddng/m-)
Chi sd gia can hd dien hinh nam 2016 so vdi nam20l51a:
25,95 - 20.82
CSG = ^ 0.246
20,82 hay 24,6%/nam
Nhtf vay, so vdi ndm 2015, gid can hg dien hinh nam 2016 tang 24,6%.
<• lldc lUtfng chi s^ gid cdn ho chung cu bang phuong phdp bie'n gid theo thdi gian:
Sau khi tfdc Itfdng va kiem djnh, khac phuc cac khuyet tSt cua md hinh, ke't qua ifdc lifdng la:
LN(DG) = 3,293 - 0,060KC_TT - 0.042PL + 0,003DT_S + 0,268TG + O.OIOT Vdi he so' tfdc lifdng cua bien TG la 0.268 tai md hlnh cho tha'y so vdi nam 2015 ddn gid can ho nam 2016 tang 30,7% (e"-^'' = 1,307 )
Nham khai thdc td'i da bg dtf lieu khao sat.
nghien ctfu nay da tie'n hanh tfdc Itfdng chi sd'gid can hd chung ctf bSng phtfdng phdp bie'n gia theo thdi gian danh cho 2 nhdm gid ttf 25 trieu ddng/m- san trd xud'ng va tren 25 trieu ddng/m- san trd len.
Ke't qua thd'ng ke cd 390/696 quan sal trong 2 nam 2015, 2016 cd ddn gia giao dich ttf 25 trieu ddng/m- san trd xud'ng. Phan tich hdi quy cho phan khuc nay cd ket qua sau:
LN(DG) = 2,983 - 0,027KC_TT - 0,058TI_NK - 0.041 PL+ 0,002DT_S + 0,034TG + 0,004T +0.078MT.
Cac bien ddc lap gidi thich du'dc 33,3% stf thay ddi cua gia can hd chung cU vdi mtfc y nghTa 10%.
Vdi he so' tfdc Itfdng cua bie'n TG la 0,034 tai md hinh cho tha'y so vdi nam 2015 ddn gia can hd cua nhdm ttf 25 trieu ddng/m-trd xud'ng cua nam 2016 tang 3,5% (eO-°^-'= 1,035).
Dd'i vdi phan khuc gia tren 25 trieu ddng/m- san ket qua U'dc lifdng chi sd gid can hd chung ctf sau cac kiem dinh la:
LN(DG) = 3,491 - 0,054KC_TT + 0,096TI_NK - 0,092PL + 0.285TG + 0.206AN.
Cac bidn doc Idp gidi thich difdc 63,3% sif thay ddi cua ddn gia can hd cd ddn gia tren 25 trieu deng/m- vdi mtfc y nghia 5%. Vdi he so ifdc Itfdng cua bien TG la 0.285 tai md hinh cho tha'y so vdi nam 2015 ddn gia can hd cua nhdm cd gia ttf 25 trieu ddng/m^ trd Idn trong nam 2016 tang 32,9%
6. Ke't luan
Md hinh u'dc lifdng cho gid cdn hd chung cU bao gdm 14 bien ddc lap, ket qua tfdc Itfdng chf sd' gid theo phtfdng phap gdn gia la: 24,6% nam. Khi tfdc lu'dng md hinh bang phifdng phap hdi quy bien gia theo thdi gian, tren tong 2 bg dtf lieu 2015 va 20 i 6, chi sd' gid chung cho can hd chung ctf tfdc tinh la: 30,7% nam. Trong dd, phan khuc du'di 25 tridn ddng/m- cd chi sd' gid: 35% nam va ttf 25 trieu ddng trd len cd chi so' gia la: 32,9% nam.
Theo quan diem cua tac gia, hai phu'dng phap tfdc Itfdng gan gid va hdi quy bie'n gia theo thdi gian deu cd nhtfng ifu, nhUdc diem rieng. Tuy nhien, hdi quy bien gia theo thdi gian cd tfu thd hdn trdng dieu kien thifc td d nu'dc ta hien nay, vT phu'dng phdp nay stf dung bg dtf lieu Idn se cho ke't qua chinh xac hdn trong u'dc lifdng va cd the tdch ra cac phan khuc nhd hdn de phan tich chi sd gia cho ttfng phan khiic dd •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
/. Hodng Vdn Cudng (2017) Phuang phdp linh clu so gid bd'i ddng sdn vd dp dung cho thi trudng bdi ddng .'idn ciia Viet Nam. Tap chi Kinh leva Phd! tnen w'243 Ihdng 9/2017. trang 12-18.
2. NguvSn Quynh Hoa, Nguyen Hang Duong (2015), Xdy dung md hinh tham dmh gid ddt hdng loai cho dia bdn c/udnGdVd'p, Thanh phd Ho Chi Mmh. Tap chi Phal trien kmh te sd 26(3). 82-103.
So 19-Thong 10/2019 71
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3. Nguyen Quoc Nghi vd cdng su (2012). ifng dung mo hinh Hedonic xdc dinh cdc nhan tot anh hudng den gid nhd cho Ihue d thanh pho Cdn Tho, Ky yeu filioa hgc TrUdng dgi hgc Can Thd 2012, 186 -194.
4. Davor Kunovac, Enes Bozovic. Gorana Lukinic. Andreja Pufnik, (2008) "Use of the Hedonic Method lo Calculate an Index of Real Estate Prices In Croatia" Croatian national bank Publish department.
5. Plcrmnsslmo Pavese (2007) "Hedonic Housing Price Indices: The Turinese Experience" Rivisla de polilica Economia. 113 -148.
6. Raimond Maurer, Martin Pilzer. and Steffen Sebastian (2004) "Hedonic price Indices for the Paris housing market" Allgemeines Slatislisches Archiv 88. 303 -326.
Ngay nhan bai: 21/9/2019
Ngay phan bi$n danh gia va su'a chita: 1/10/2019 Ngay cha'p nhan dang bai: 11/10/2019
Thong tinldcgid:
PCS. TS. N G U Y J N N G O C V I N H Truatng Dai hoc Kinh te TP. Ho Chi Minh
DEVELOPING THE APARTMENT PRICE INDEX FOR HO CHI MINH CITY
• Assoc.Prof, Ph.D NGUYEN NGOC VINH University of Economics Ho CY\\ IVlinh City
ABSTRACT:
Price index plays an important role in the development of the real estate market. The price index is the basis for State management agencies and investors to develop development strategies. In this research, the apartment price index in Ho Chi Minh City is being developed by using the Hedonic Pricing Model through two methods, namely Time Dummy Variable Regression and Price Imputation Method.
Keywords: Price index, apartments, real estate.
