OURN DI€M cun €U TRONG GIRI QUV€T VRN D€
TRRNH CHRP BI€N DONG
T S K H . LiTffng Van Ke Le Thu Van
Tru&ng BHKHXH&NV, DHQG Hd Noi
Lien minh Chau Au (EU) la mgt thuc the khong 16 nhung cho den hien nay van to ra thieu siic nang ve chinh tri tren vu dai the gidi. Nhung nhiing gi ma EU the hien xung quanh van de tranh chap lanh tho va xung dot an ninh tren Bien Dong cho thay, thuc the kinh te-chinh tri khong 16 nay dang dan timg budc to ro vai tro ngay cang tang cua hg trong giai quyet cac xung dot quoc te va no luc can du vao cue dien dia - ehinh tri the gidi. Hp to ra muon tao lap mgt tieng noi dgc lap vdi NATO do My diing dau. Lap trudng cua EU vl van de Bien D6ng cho thay quan dilm cua chii nghTa hoa binh chau Au, long tin vao the che quoc te va he th6ng luat phap qu6c te.
Bai vilt nay tap trung vao phan tich eae quan diem va kha nang can du cua EU vao tranh ch5p Biln Dong d cac khia canh sau:
- Lpi ich dja chien lugc ciia EU tai khu vuc Dong A va Ddng Nam A/Bien D6ng;
- Quan diem hien tai ciia EU vdi van de Bien Dong;
- Kha nang lira chgn ciia EU trong giai quyet van de tranh chap Bien Dong.
I. Loi ich dia chien lu'p'c cua EU tai khu VU'C Dong A va Dong Nam A/Bien Dong
"EU CO moi quan tam ldn den Bien Dong ndi rieng va Dong A noi chung d hai khia canh la hoa binh an ninh va hgp tac kinh te".' Theo phan tich ciia Luong Van Ke ve Igi ich dia chien lupc ciia cac cudng quoc d Bien Ddng, kinh te va an ninh la hai ITnh vuc CO ban thupc ve lpi ich ciia EU tai khu virc can dupc luru y nhat. Neu su dli dSu d Dong A xay ra, EU se hiing chiu anh hudng rat Idn.'^
Luong van Ke (2012-c), "ig'i ich dta chiin lui?c cua cdc cudng quoc d Bien Ddng", Tap chi Thong tin khoa hpc x3 hpi, so thang 12, trang 8-17.
^ Nicola Casarini (2012), "EU foreign policy m the Asia Pacific: striking the right balance between the US. China and ASEAN", analysis, Institute for Security Studies, European Union, 7 September
10 NGHIEN CLTU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (153).2013
- Yeu cdu ve hoa binh an ninh Ve mat chinh tri, khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong da dugc khang dinh la mgt kliu vuc quan trpng va co moi quan he ngay cang dupc tang cudng, phat trien trong nhiing nam qua. Vi du, chuyen tham ctia Catherine Ashton, dai dien cap cao phu irach chinh sach an ninh va ddi ngoai Lien minh Chau Au, da danh nhieu thdi gian tai Trung Quoc ben le Doi thoai Chien lugc cap cao Trung Quoc Lien minh Chau Au de thao luan nhieu van de, bao gom ca lgi ich ciia cac quoc gia trong khu vuc. Ba ciing da tham gia diln dan khu vuc ASEAN cung thdi gian nay.^ Tucmg lai thinh vugng ciia ehau Au cung dupe cho rang se phu thuoc rat nhieu vao su phat trien ciia khu vuc chau A, ngugc lai vdi suy nghT trude day rang su phat trien Idn manh ciia chau A phu thupc vao sir giup do ciia cac nudc phuong Tay. Vdi dac diem va tiem nang ciia mpt khu vuc kinh te co su tang Irudng nhanh nhat, Chau A - Thai Binh Duong nhan dugc sir tai trg phat trien hang dau tir phia EU. Nhieu moi quan he hgp lac kinh te quan trpng ciia EU dat tai khu vuc nay da dem den nhiimg tien bg va lpi nhuan cao cho ca hai ben. Tuy nhien, ben canh sir phat trien va cac yeu to tich cue cung nay sinh cae van de. Quan he kinh tl mat thilt se dan den su phu thupc lan nhau xuyen qu6c gia, dieu nay co the de dpa din sir phat triln on dinh ciia bat ky quoc gia nao trong mii
lien he nlu cd b^t trdc xay ra. Thuc te nay doi hdi su quan tam thudng xuyen hon niia ciia cac ben tham gia. dac biet la tir phia EU vdi trinh do phat trien \ ugt bae ciia minh.
Vi nhirng ly do tren, co the thay hoa binh an ninh khu vuc Dong A co anh hudng rat manh mc den EU noi rieng va tren the gidi ndi chung, nen hien tai cac van de bat on tai khu vuc Dong A deu dupc EU quan lam theo doi vdi mot "sir lo lang sau sac".
- Rdng bupc ve lai ich kinh te Quan he kinh te giiia cac nudc EU va cac nudc trong khu vuc chau A nliin chung da ton tai rat lau. Nhung trong mgt Ihdi gian tuong doi dai sau Chien iranh the gidi thii Hai, cac nudc Idn trong EU rat it chii;' den chau A. Trong giai doan nay. quan he ciia cac nudc EU vdi khu \'uc chau A chii yeu la vien trg kinh te. Tuy vay, lir sau thap ky 80 den nay, cac nudc dang phat trien chau A lai CO nhiing chuyen bien manh me trong phat triln kinh te. Cac nudc ASEAN da thuc hien thanh cong chinh sach kinh te hudng vl xuat khau va dat toe dp tang trudng kinh tl cao so vdi the gidi. Dong thdi, su sup dl ciia Lien Xo va cac nudc Ddng Au dfi lam cho cue dien ve kinh te thay ddi. Viec thilt lap dupc mpt su hien dien manh me va dong bg tai cac khu vuc d chau A se cho phep EU dam bao
EU-ASIA Centre (2012), "Ashton in Asia
\gain", Australia Network, 13 July.
^ Phong vdn Helga Schmid - Pho t6ng thu ky EU, vai Jim Middleton tren kenh Autralia Network- Jim Middleton (2012), "Helga Schmid on Europe's relations with the Asia Pacific /^c^/o/j", Australia Network, 18 February.
' Lucmg van Ke (2012-c), tldd, tr, 15
dugc lpi ich ciia minh tai khu vuc nay vao dau the ky 2 1 . De dat dugc dilu do, thang 7/1994. liU da thong qua van kien "Hudng ldi mdt chien luac mdi dot vdi chdu A ". Qua chien lupc nay, EU hy vgng se gianh dugc nhiing vi tri viing chac ca ve kinh te quoc dan. EU da sdm don bat dugc xu the phat trien dac Ihii d chau A trong the ky 21, Do la tien dc ly ludng de EU co the phat huy anh hudng chinh tri cua minh. Khong chi vdi Hiep hgi cac quoc gia khu vuc Chau A Thai Binh Duong, cac cupc hpi thao ve quan he kinh tc Ihuong mai cua Lien minh Chau Au (EU) vdi Hiep hgi cac quoc gia Dong Nam A (ASEAN) lai Brussels (Bi) ciing la mgt bang chirng ve moi quan tam chien lupc cua EU vdi khu virc. Hpi thao nay lap trung ban ve quan he kinh te - thuang mai ciia EU vdi cac nudc ASEAN
- Quan he cua EU vdi cdc quoc gia trong khu virc tranh chap
Nhu da de cap ve lpi ieh cua EU tai khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong, xuat phat tir nhiing quyin !gi ngay cang tang ma EU dang xay dung tai khu vuc nay, EU da dua ra van kien hudng tdi chiln lugc phat trien vdi chau A vao nam 1994.
Su cu thl hoa trong chien lugc mdi doi vdi chau A nam 1994 chiing to EU da tiln them mgt budc quan trgng trong chinh sach dli ngoai va an ninh chung cua minh. Viec EU c l gSng di din mgt chinh saeh chung d l i vdi Chau A - Thai Binh Duong la xu^t phat
tir cho danh gia lai thuc trang cua minh va luong lai ciia khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong.
Trong tinh hinh hien nay, khi cac tranh chap dien ra, dang co sir gia tang ky vpng tir cac nha lanh dao Dong Nam A ve tieng noi khac den tu phuong Tay nham da dang hoa tieng noi co anh hudng, von truoc day thupc ve ludng quyen My va Trung Quoc. Hai cudng quoc nay. vdi vi the ciia minh, da the hien nguy co chen cp va "bat nat" cac quoc gia nhd yeu hon, va co su phan chia anh hudng theo nhdm trong khu vuc ASEAN.
That chat them quan he vdi ASEAN co the vi nhu la mgt budc tien tu nhien trong quan he ngoai giao cua EU. Tren thirc le, neu EU tim kiem mgt "doi tac chinh tri tu nhien"
trong khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong thi doi lugng phii hgp nhat chinh la ASEAN. Ca EU va ASEAN chia se mgt cam ket ve hgi nhap khu vuc, nhu la mot phuang tien de thiic day hgi nhap da phuong va sir thjnh vugng chung. cung la mgt hinh thiie han che nhiing quyet dinh don phuong va ba quyen.
Do do, su aiih hudng ciia EU vao ASEAN noi rieng va Chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg noi chung CO the danh gia la mgt trien vpng tot.
Su gan bd chat che vdi EU se ho trp cho eac quoc gia nho trong khu vuc Dong Nam A tang cudng tieng noi tren chinh trudng quoc le noi chung, sau do la vdi My va Trung Quoc noi rieng.
12 NGHIEN CUU CHAU A U - EUROPEAN STUDIED KtVltw rto {lo^h'-^'^
De dugc nhin nhan vdi vai tro trung lap ve cac van de an ninh chau A, bao gom ca cac tranh chap Bien Dong, EU no luc khong gay anh hudng xau tdi quan he san co vdi My va Trung Qudc hay diing ve phia mpt trong hai ben. Cac quoc gia trong khu vuc van luon co sir ban khoan ve kha nang EU nghieng ve phia My. The hien minh la mot lien minh dpc lap khdi My va Trung Quoc mdi CO the nang cao hinh anh ciia EU tai khu vuc nay, ciing la vi Igi ich lau dai cho EU.^
- Anh hu&ng cua tranh chdp tgi khu vuc Bien Dong din EU
Vdi tu duy dia - chinh tri tren co sd hpc thuyet nam eham cua Spykman' James Rogers da dua ra tir rat sdm y kien thoi thiie EU can budc ra khoi "san choi truyen thing
^ Nicola Casanni (2012), tldd.
' Iskander Rebman (2012), ''Orf South China Sea Interview", South China Sea Monitor, Vol.1, Issue 8, pg.10-15.
^ James Rogers, hoc gia chuySn v^ quan h? qu6c t^, nghien ciiu chi^n luoc va an ninh chau Au, dai hpc Qu6c ph6ng Baltic. Ong cung da I^m viec cho RAND ChSu Au, Vien Egmont, Tiiu ban \h An ninh v^ Qu6c phong cua Nghj vi^n Chau Au va Vien Nghien ciiu An ninh ciia Lien minh Chau Au. Quan diem ciia Rogers o day liy tir Iskander Rebman (2012), "Orf South China Sea Interview", South China Sea Monitor, Vol 1, Issue 8, pg.10-15. James Rogers cung dua ra ^ tucmg nen gui^ chifin h^m d6n Bi6n Dong trong cugc difiu tran gSn day nhSt hii d^u thing 2/2013 ma cac bdo Viet Nam c6 nhac dfin so qua.
Thuc ra quan di€m n^y da dirge ong khang dmh trong cuOc phong vdn voi tap chi South China Sea tir nam 2012. Ong da dua ra ca gai y EU cSn nang dong can thiep hon trong khu vuc "Rimland" (viing 'cain tam') cua dai lyc A-Au (tir kfinh dao Suez dfin Thugng Hai) tir nam 2009 (xem chu din 6 mpc sau). Quan difim can thi?p tich cue cua ong t6 ra khd nhat quin, Bao cdo cua James Roggers cho ISS.
http://www,iss,europa.eu/uploads/media/op77-pdf
ciia minh", rang neu EU khong khang dinh dugc anh hudng va vai tro ciia minh tai khu vuc Bien Dong ndi rieng va chau A noi chung, he qua tat yeu la lgi ich ciia EU se bi cac nguon sure manh mdi dang tim each lung doan trong khu vuc day "ra ria". Cac nha lanh dao EU ciing da sdm y thiic dugc dieu do va da chii y vuon tam anh hudng cua minh den khu vuc nang dpng mdi noi la Dong A, noi ma EU vdi uu the phat trien ciia minh, cd the tim thay Igi nhuan tren hau het mgi ITnh vuc. Sir phu thupc lan nhau ve thuang mai, va sau do la an ninh chinh tri ngay cang tang giiia EU va Dong A tuy la co hpi Idn, nhung cung mang tinh riii ro cao.
Gitra EU va Nhat Ban, Han Quic co quan he dau tu va thucmg mai cung rdt Idn: Da co udc tinh rang, su doi dau d Dong A se anh hudng ldn tdi EU bdi lgi ich ciia 27 nudc d khu vuc, vdi 18,1% xu^t kh4u va 30,1%
nhap khiu trong tong s6 34,3% tir chau A.'"
Vdi Trung Quoc, EU ciing chiu sir rang bugc rat ldn. Dac biet, trong hoan canh khi EU dang doi dien vdi nhieu kho khan, trong khi Trung Qudc cd phan chilm thl thupng phong hon vdi hinh dung la mot thl lire kinh te mdi noi, co du trii ngoai te rk ldn va la mpt cong xudng san xuat hang hoa cho toan the gidi. Do dd, mot trong nhirng muc tieu an ninh trong chinh sach dli ngoai ciia EU la thiic day hoa binh va dn dinh d Ddng A.
Iskander Rebman (2012), tldd, tr. 10-15, '° Luang van Kfi (2012-c), tldd.
q„„.. i j
Ben canh dd, rat kho du tinh mot tuong lai khi tranh chap trong khu vuc trpng yeu nay bimg bd thanh xung dot, khi EU khong tap trung no luc xay dung he thong phong thli rieng vi nam chii yeu trong NATO dudi sir chi huy ciia My, EU khong the co bien phap quan sir va an ninh cu the de thiic day hoa binh va on djnh d Dong A. Van de sii dung quan sir se trd thanh mot van de gay tranh cai rat ldn trong EU va npi bp cac nudc thanh vien. Do do, kich ban ve mpt khu vue Dong A on djnh van la phuong an tot nhat ma EU hudng den.
II. Quan diem hien tai cua EU voi van de Bien Dong
Ngudi ta CO the diem ra mpt so hoat dpng dang chii y gan day ciia EU lien quan tdi van de Bien Dong:
Thang 6 nam 2012, EU dua ra Ban Hudng dan cap nhat Brussels ve Chinh sach Dli ngoai va An ninh eita EU d Dong A.''
- Dm thang 2 nam 2013, Chii tjch phai doan eiia Nghi vien Chau Au phu trach van de quan he ngoai giao vdi cac nudc Dong Nam A va Hiep hgi Cae quoc gia Dong Nam A, Werner Langen da the hien quan diem ciia EU vl van dl Biln Dong trong chuyen tham Manila, Phillipine riing, EU img hg lap
htlp://eeas,europa,eu/asia/docs/guidelines_eu_foreign _sec_po l_east_as ia_en. pd f
trudng cua Philippines dua tranh chap bien dao vdi Trung Quoc ra toa quoc te.
- Ngay 7 thang 3 nam 2013: Tieu ban An ninh va Quoc phong true thu6c Uy ban Doi ngoai ciia Nghi vien Chau Au to churc phien dieu tran ve tinh hinh an ninh va quan sir tai Bien Dong tai Brussels, Bi.
Qua nhirng su kien tren, co the thay ro chau Au rat quan tam den van de tranh chap tai khu vuc Bien Dong. Phan ldn xuat phat tu phia EU la nhiing lo lang va quan ngai sau sac ve tinh hinh tranh chap co the dan den xung dot tai khu vuc nay. Van de giai quyet tranh chap tai khu vuc khdng chi dugc dat ra cho cac quoc gia trong cugc ma con vdi ca cac cudng quoc va cac khu vuc c6 su lien he chat che ve quyen lgi vdi cac quoc gia nay, trong do co EU. On dinh dupc tinh hinh khu vuc dong nghTa vdi quan he kinh te va an ninh chinh trj ciia EU va cac khu vuc khac dugc dam bao khong bj anh hudng, tir do giii dugc nhip dp phat trien dn dinh cho nen kinh te va cac ITnh vuc khac ciia quoc gia. Vice dat ra mgt ban nghi quyet ve van de Bien Dong cua EU la dieu can thiet. Tuy nhien, co mpt van de thupc ve quan diem de EU c6 the xay dung mpt nghi quyet ve Bien Dong giong nhu ban nghj quyet the hien lap trudng ciia My ve tranh chap tai khu vuc vao thang 3 nam 2012, do la tdn tai hai luong y kien trai chieu ve viec EU nen ddng vai trd gi hong van de Bien Ddng:
14 NGHIEN CUU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N''6 (153).2013
- Mpi la, EU can thay dugc sir he trpng ciia van de Bien Dong doi vdi nen kinh te va an ninh ciia khu vuc, tir do cd cac bien phap can thiep sdm va phu hpp de tham gia giai quyet tranh chap Bien Dong.
- Hai la, lap luan phan bae rang tuy co quyen Igi d khu vuc Dong A, nhirng viec giai quyet van de Bien Dong ciia khu vuc Dong A khdng nam trong kha nang giai quyet ciia EU. Vi vay, su quan tam qua nhieu den khu vuc nay hay can thiep v£ ca mat ngoai giao va quan sir la khdng can thilt.
Dai dien cho quan diem dau tien la ly thuyet ciia Jame Roggers. Nhu da dl cap trong phan Igi ich ciia EU tai Biln Dong, ong cho rang EU ndi rieng va toan chau Au noi chung co moi Hen he chat che vdi chau A.
Khu vuc tranh chap neu di vao on dinh thi se dam bao eho su on dinh va phat trien cho EU vdi vai tro ngay cang thiet yeu ciia chau A vdi chau Au trong tuong lai. Trude day, khi EU bat dau vuon rgng hon tam anh hudng ciia minh ra khoi khu vuc, da co nhihig du tinh ve vai tro va de xuat EU can gay anh hudng rpng ldn hon den khu vyc Dong A.
Nam 2009, James Rogers da dl cap din kha nang "vung ven bien trai dai tir kenh dao Suez tdi thanh phd Thugng Hai va cd thl ca khu vuc xa hem nhu Seoul la khu vue co nhilu kha nang se trai qua canh tranh quyin luc ldn va roi loan chung trong nhiing thap ky tdi". Ong cdn dua ra quan dilm keu gpi Lien minh Chau Au de nhin vugt ra ngoai
san sau truyen thong cua minh va ddi vdi cac viing bien rdng Idn hom ciia khu vuc Chau A- Thai Binh Duong va chi ra rang "su on dinh chdu A cd mdi quan he chgt che vdi chdu Au". Cd hai ly do chinh ma dng dua ra de giai thich su lien ddi giiia EU va khu vuc tren. Thu nhdt la do ddng thuong mai dpc theo "Dudng Hoang Gia" - con dudng hang hai va thong tin lien lac tu chau Au den Dong Nam A da co sir phat trien than toe trong tinh hinh bung no kinh te cac quoc gia trong khu vuc sau Chien tranh Lanh, trong khi Dong Nam A ngay cang co vai tro he trgng doi vdi cac doi tac thuong mai chau Au, Thu hai la dira tren ly thuylt \c dia-chinh trj ciia Nicholas Spykman tir thap nien 1930, 1940, qua su gidng nhau giira trudng hgp My, sau do va tnrdng hgp chau Au hien nay:
Spykman da trien khai tinh vi rang yeu tl dja - ehinh tri hiln thj tren khu vuc nay nhu Ihl nao va ly do tai sao mgt chinh sach dli ngoai CO lap chi mang tinh ngan ban va tilm chiia nhilu nguy co, dac biet la trong "Rimland"
ciia dai luc A-Au (khu vuc kenh dao Suez den Thugng Hai). James Rogers ciing chi ra rang xu the ddi thoai la tdt, nhung la chua dii de dam bao an ninh khu vuc EU cung nhu co lap khu vuc nay vl mat quan su. Chinh nhirng dien biln tai khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong, dac biet la nhiing tranh chap gan day vl Biln Dong cang c4n din nhihig phan tich ve dja - chinh tri va sir can thiep hgp ly de dam bao su phat triln va tranh nhiing anh hudng x^u din khu vuc dudi con
mat khach quan chii khong dua tren quan diem chii quan, vi du nhu lang kinh EU xii ly nhumg xung dot lgi ich ngi bp. Hgi dong EU gan day da phat hanh ban hudng dan cap nhat ve chinh sach doi ngoai va an ninh ciia EU d Dong A. Tai lieu nay da cho thay moi quan tam ngay cang tang cua chau Au vdi kha nang gia tang "chii nghTa dan tpc canh tranh" tai khu vuc Bien Dong va dieu nay c6 the gay ton hai den nhiing Igi ich dau tu thuang mai cua EU tren dien rpng.'"
Quan diem thii hai to ra trai ngupc vdi quan diem ciia Rogers, cho rang moi quan tam ciia EU khdng nhat thiet phai hudng vao mpt van de xa vdi nhu tranh chap lai khu virc Dong. Tieu bieu cho quan diem nay la Jonathan Holslag'"*. J. Holslag cho rang EU khong can va khong co du kha nang can thiep giai quyet van de Bien Dong. Tuy lap luan cua ong nay kha chat che, mdi me, ve su de dat cua EU.
Cu thl hon, bang chiing dupc dua ra la vdi nhiing van de hien tai, chau Au va NATO dudng nhu da phai can nhac va gap
'Mskander Rebman (2012), tldd, pg. 10-15.
'^Jonathan Holslag (2012), "iVhy Europe Should Stick io Itself, The Diplomat, 9 July. 2.
Jonathan Holslag 1^ nha nghien ciru thufic Vien Nghifin cihi Trung Quoc duong dai tai Brussels. T i c phSm mdi nhit cua ong bao g6m "Trapped Giant"
(Ngirdi khdng 16 mdc bdy?) v i "China^ and India.
Prospects for Peace" (Trung Qudc va An Dg Trien vgng cho hoa binh). Tac phim nay dau tien xuat hifin trong The European Voice.
Xem: http,//thediplomal com/flashpoints- bloK/2012/07/09/whv-europe-should-stick-to-itself/
kha nhieu kho khan, dac biet la quyet dinh cat giam chi tieu quan su trong cac thanh vien Idn nhat cCia NATO vao thang 6 nam 2012. Trai ngupc lai vdi quan diem ciia Rogers, Jonathan Holslag da chi ra ba ly do chinh de bao ve y kien EU tam thdi chi nen tap trung vao nhirng van de ciia minh hon la tham gia vao tranh chap tai Bien Dong: Mpt la van de tranh chap chu yeu trong khu vuc do nay sinh tir phia Trung Quoc, va theo Iy thuyet ciia My, do la moi de dpa Idn trong tuong lai. Nhung tren thirc te hien nay, trude khi de dpa chau Au, Trung Quoc con can thuc hien tham vgng tren nhieu khu vuc khac xung quanh. Moi de dpa true tiep vdi chau Au khong phai tir phuong Dong xa xoi, ma EU can siic manh ciing de doi pho vdi van dc noi loan tir phia cac quoc gia nhu Lybia va Syria trude. Thic hai, EU khong c6 nhieu kha nang tham gia vao cac van de an ninh d chau A. Mac dii co kinh nghiem va tham gia giai quyet dugc van de hoa binh tren mgt so khu vuc, nhimg quy md ciia chiing nho hon rat nhieu so vdi nhiing gi cac nudc d khu v\rc Thai Binh Duong trong dpi trong tinh hinh hien nay. Thu ba, mgi y djnh tham gia giai quyet van de d khu virc Dong A deu mang tinh phieu luu neu no khong mang tam nhin chien lugc dupe chia se bdi tat ca cac quoc gia thanh vien. MSc dii EU da cd Ban hudng dan cap nhat Brussel ve Chinh sach Doi ngoai va An ninh ciia EU d Dong A, nhung theo ong, van ban nay van dua la mgt quan diem ma ho, thieu chieu sau do van chua cd
16 NGHIEN CUU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES RfcVlfcW N'o \i3^i.^»t^t
su nhat tri giiia cac nudc trong khu vuc. Can thong nhat dupc tii ben trong ndi bg EU trude khi hudng ra ben ngoai. Ve kha nang bj gat ra ngoai le khi van de Dong A dang la van de nong dugc nhieu cudng quoc va cac khu vuc khac quan tam, Jonathan Holslag Cling cho rang, co the do la kich ban tit nhat cho EU, khi mpi khu vuc khac bi phan tan bdi chau A, neu EU tap trung chinh sach ngoai giao vao san sau cua minh va phat trien Idn manh. Bi gat ra ngoai le ciia van de bat on tai Dong A khdng dong nghia vdi viec bi CO lap. Cac quan he thuong mai vh\ c4n dupc duy tri, nhung dirng lai d mpt chinh sach khu vuc manh vdi cac dli tac kinh tl thi tot hon la cam ket quoc te mong manh vl siic manh ciing vdi bat ky qudc gia nao.'"
Hien tai EU chua the hien quylt djnh nghieng hoan toan ve phia mpt trong hai quan diem tren. Mpt so bieu hien thupc quan diem ciia Rogers da cho thay gia trj thilt thuc, nhu nhiing quan ngai ve Igi ich ciia EU trong tuong lai co the bj anh hudng nlu tranh chap khu vuc xay ra, vi vay EU luon theo sat va dua ra nhirng canh bao, lo lang sau sfic tren mpi dien bien mdi tai khu vuc. Nhung quan diem thii hai ciia Holslag ciing da td ra CO ly khi EU chua thuc su tham gia vao qua trinh giai quyet van de Bien Dong ma chi dimg lai d eac cugc thao luan va mgt sir thay doi the hien sir quan tam hon din tinh hinh Dong A trong cuIn Chinh sach D6i ngoai va
An ninh ciia EU d Dong A. Ngoai ra, chuyen vieng thfim cua phai doan ciia Nghi vien Chau Au phu trach van de quan he ngoai giao vdi cac nudc Ddng Nam A va Hiep hpi Cac quoc gia Ddng Nam A den Manila cung the hien thai dp co phan diing ngoai cudc khi cd vii Phillipine dua van de khu vuc nay len tda an quoc te; Hay "EU khong hen quan true tiep nhung quan tam tdi van de de thiic day giai phap hda binh".'^
III. Kha nang lu'a chon giai phap cua EU trong giai quyet van de Bien Dong
Cac hgc gia va to chiic nghien ciiu cung nhu thanh vien tieu ban an ninh ciia EU dua ra mpt so kjch ban cho giai phap Bien Dong, trong do EU uu tien cho lira chpn giai phap hoa binh va co sd phap luat quic tl.
- Lira clipn tlid nhh: Gidi quyit tren ca sa hda binh tie kinh nghiem EU.
Kha nang nay cd the la cao nhAt, khi vdi nhirng bieu hien hien t^i cho thiy EU khong muon ddng mpt vai tro true tilp. "Trong dien bien tinh hinh chien lugc nay, EU co thl la nhan to can bfing hiru ich". "EU sfin sang ddng mgt vai trd hoa giai. Do la mot thach thiic d phia EU. Chiing tdi (EU) thuc sir hy vgng khdng cdn su leo thang niia" la nhCmg phat ngdn da the hien kha rd lap trudng ciia EU. EU cd kinh nghiem giau cd trong chia se chu quyen, giai quylt cac vdn dl kho khan (chinh sach ddnh bat chung, moi trudng) co ' Jonathan Holslag (2012), tldd. Nicola Casarini (2012), tldd.
^ Nicola Casarini (2012), nt.
i^ieofis. SSi'irt eua ^(M... 17
the hihi ich cho cac quoc gia lien quan. Vi du, nam 1970, ve nguyen tac, cd su nhat tri rang ngu dan EU can co quyen tiep can binh dfing viing bien ciia cac nudc thanh vien. Sau do, cac nudc thanh vien ciing quyet djnh rfing, EU la noi tot nhat de quan ly ngu nghiep d cac viing bien thupc tham quyen ciia hp va bao ve cac lgi ich cua hg trong cac cugc dam phan quoc te. Mo hinh EU cd the khong thich hgp vdi chau A nhung khu vuc nay c6 the chgn lua mot so khia canh. Kinh nghiem ciia EU CO the Hen quan tdi Bien Dong bao gom viec thanh lap mgt chinh sach ngu nghiep chung, dua ra han ngach vdi cac nudc thanh vien va trao ddi kinh nghiep trong bao ve hang hai, dam phan cho cac chuan muc cao hon ve moi trudng vdi cac nudc ven bien va giai quyet tranh chap. EU san sang la ben thli ba him ich dl h6 trg ky thuat nhung
"cuoi Cling de cac nudc lien quan giai quyet tranh chdp". De nhirng kinh nghiem ciia EU CO the ap d\mg, "Giai phap duy nhat kha thi trong thdi gian dai la gat sang ben tranh chap va cung phat trien"." Tu do, EU cung nhu My CO thl tao mgt diln dan da phuong hay quoc tl de ban bae va phan dinh pham vi chii quyin cua cac nudc doi vdi Bien Dong va thong nhdt cac quy che quan trj an ninh cho tu do hang hai d Bien Dong.
- iira chgn thu hai: Gidp cdc quoc gia nho nang cao tiing ndi vd bdo vi quyen lpi.
EU la mdt khu vuc thong nhat, cd kha nfing ddi trgng tuong duong vdi mpt cudng quic ldn. Chinh vi vay, cac quoc gia trong khu vuc CO su hi vpng EU se tham gia giai quyet tranh chap trong khu virc de tao the da cue siic manh dfing sau cac quoc gia nho ben canh My, Trung Quoc. Trong xu the da phuong - ludng cue hoa, EU ciing nhu My CO the tham gia "chong lung cho cac nudc nhd yeu d Bien Dong, cd vu va lien ket hg lai thanh mpt cue de doi trpng vdi Trung Quic""
- Lua chpn thu ba: EU can thi^p quan sir, gui chien ligm den Bien Dong.
Day cung la mpt kha nang dugc James Rogers dua ra tir nfim 2012 va dugc nhac lai trong cupc dieu tran ve van de Bien Dong thang 3/2013. Dong thuan vdi quan diem trude do tir Jim Holmes, James Rogers cho rang EU cung can theo xu hudng ciia cac cudng qudc nen tfing cudng su xuat hien cua minh tren cac khu vuc bien tranh chap. Dieu nay khong chi the hien su san sang giiip do, can thiep bao ve hoa binh, tat nhien co sir dong y ciia cac quoc gia trong khu vuc lien quan, ma cung chinh la de khang dinh siic manh ciing nhu bao ve su on djnh se dam bao cho nen kinh te va an ninh EU mgt each gian tiep, phong ngira mgt cupc khiing hoang CO tinh he thing trong tuong lai. Kha nang nay cd the phat trien theo hai hudng: mpt la
Nicola Casarini (2012), nt.
" Luang van Kfi (2012-c), tldd.
NGHIEN CUU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (153).2013
cac cudng quoc trong EU giii quan rieng le, hoac EU giii quan gian tiep qua luc lupmg cua NATO. Kha nang EU giii quan dudi danh nghia cua Lien minh la rat thap.
- Lua chpn thu tu: Tiiong qua cdc nghi quyet the hien quan diem ve Bien Dong, gidng nhu each md Thuang vien My da ldm ndm 2012.
Mdt nghi quyet nhu vay trong thdi diem hien nay la can thiet, vdi su hi vpng cua cac nudc, dac biet la cac nude nho trong khu vuc dang tim kiem su ung hg tir du luan quoc te, hoac dong thdi neu co the la mgt siic nang doi trpng de tao the da phuong - ludng cue hoa hoac mpt kich ban kha thi cho viec giai quyet van de khu virc, tranh xay ra doi dau, hay trudng hpp xau hom la chien tranh. Tuy nhien, su ra ddi cila mdt nghi quyet vdi day dli nhimg nhan djnh sau sac nhu vay tir phia EU la rat kho khan do su thieu thdng nhat d ca ngi bg EU va quan he ciia EU vdi khu vuc Ddng A, su dan xen quyen lgi giiia cac ben.
Tuy vay, Ddng A van la mpt khu vuc trgng yeu vdi EU va qudc te noi chung. Neu xung dot xay ra, va trong trudng hop EU van chua tim dugc sir thong nhat ciing nhu kha nang quan su day du de tham gia giai quylt, mgt du doan dugc dua ra la cac quoc gia EU CO the hanh dpng don le de duy tri luat phap va trat tu, hoac de dam bao an ninh hang hai nham bao ve lgi ich thuong mai d khu vuc nay. Mpt kha nfing khac la qua NATO, EU cd the gian tiep can thiep. Anh, Phap vdi luc
lugng hai quan manh, cd the ra tay neu tinh hinh khu vuc anh hudng true tilp din lgi ich ciia hg, "bao gdm ca kha nang hai nudc triln khai tau san bay".
IV. Ket luan
EU la mpt thuc thl khong Id nhung cho din hien nay van td ra thieu siic nang ve chinh trj tren vCi dai thl gidi. Nhumg nhimg gi ma EU thl hien xung quanh van de tranh chdp lanh the va xung dot an ninh tren Bien Dong cho thdy, thuc the kinh te-chinh tri khong 16 nay dang dan tiing budc td r6 vai tro ngay cang tang ciia hg trong giai quyet cac xung dot quoc te. EU khong chi dimg lai d nhumg Idi keu gpi hoa binh chung chung, d tuyen bo ve van de nhan quyen hay dan xep xung dot sac tpc va van hoa (nhu d Trung Dong) niia, ma EU dang chiing to vai tro tich cue trong can du vao cue dien dia - chinh trj the gidi. Hg td ra muon tao lap mpt tieng noi dpc lap vdi NATO do My diing dau. Lap trudng cua EU ve van de Bien Dong cho thay quan diem cua chii nghTa hoa binh chau Au, long tin vao the che va he thdng luat phap quoc te. Tinh rang budc ve lgi ich kinh te va an ninh to ldn ciia EU vao cac dli tac ldn nhu Trung Quic ciing nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qudc va khu vuc cac nudc ASEAN khien cho EU khdng the uu tien cho mpt lua chpn nao khac ngoai lira chgn cong phap qudc te, van hoa ddi thoai va dua tren kinh nghiem xir ly xung dot ciia minh trong lich
' Lucmg van Kfi (2012-c), tldd, trang 8-17.
c...-.-
Sli - nhiing cai da dua EU noi rieng va chau Au ndi chung den hoa binh. I n dinh, doan ket va cung phat trien. Cac q u i c gia lien quan den Bien Dong noi rieng va Tay Thai Binh Duong noi chung, nhat la Trung Quic can CO thai do hudng thien, tilp nhan quan diem nhan van cua EU de dap tfit cac ngoi nd chien tranh va xung dot do tham vgng phi ly ve lanh tho, tai nguyen va chien lugc.
TAI LIEU T H A M K H A O
1. EU - ASIA Centre (2012), "Ashton in Asia - Again", Australia Network, 13 July.
2. Holslag, Jonathan (2012), "Why Europe Should Slick to Itself, The Diplomat, 9 July.
3. Casarini, Nicola (2012), "EUforeign policy in the Asia Pacific: striking the right
balance between the US, China and ASEAN", analysis. Institute for Security Studies, European Union, 7 September.
4. Kefalakos, Dennis (2013), "The European Parliament floating over the South China Sea", The European Sting, 18 February.
5. Luang Vfin K I (2012-a): Cdc he hinh chuyen dong dia - chinh tri. Tap ehi Nhumg van de kinh t l va chinh trj the gidi, so 8/2012, tr. 48-57.
6. Luong Van K I (2012-b), "ChuySn dpng cua he hinh dia - chinh Iri a Bien Dong
vd lua chpn cua Viel Nam", Tc Ly luan chinhtri, s l 10/2012, tr. 84-91.
7. Luong Vfin K I (2012-c), "Lai ich dja chien luoc cua cdc cudng quoc a Bien Dong", Tap chi Thong tin khoa hgc xa hpi, so thang 12, trang 8-17.
8. Middleton, Jim (2012), "Helga Schmid on Europe 's relations with the Asia Pacific region", Australia. Network, 18 February.
9. Rebman, Iskander (2012), "Orf South China Sea Interview", South China Sea Monitor, Vol.1, Issue 8, pg. 10-15.
10. Rogers, James (2009), "From Suez lo Shanghai: the European Union and Eurasian maritime security", occasional paper. Institute for Security Studies, European Union, Vol. 77, March.
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