PHOBIlHKltNTHlIC
• T S . NGUYEN KIM CHUNG Trtidng CD Kinh t ^ B6i ngo^l
1. T h u n h $ p qua d4u tvC c6 phlfTu
Lam the' nao dc xac djnh thu nhap qua ddu tvf c6 phie'u? Gi^ svf mOt nba dau Id mua co phlcu vdl gla nSm nay la PQ, vay Ueu nSm sau nha duu tvf thu dvfOc lOl nhuan la bao nhieu? Cbric hAn nam sau.
nha ddu tvf se nhan ddOc cA co tvfc va lai vdn (tvfc la cbcnh lech gia co phld?u nam sau so vdl n a m trvfdc). Neu ky hl(Mi co tvfc nSm sau la DFV, va gla ci) phie'u nam sau la P, thi thu nhdp di,f kl^n trong nam sau cua nha dau tvf co phl^u la: DP/, + {P,-PQ). Trong trvfdng hdp nha ddu tvf v i n gluf cd phl^u, p h i n thu n h a p lai von (PJ-PQ) se chvfa difdc thvfc hien. Nhieu ngvfdi cho r i n g c h i c c h i n cd tvfc cua nha d i u tvf la DP/,, con lai von vi chvfa thvfc hien nen khong quan trong. Cich nghi nay that la sal l i m . vi neu nam sau gii cd phieu giam va nhufng n a m tiep theo v i n g i i m thi sao? MOt khi gii cd phieu lien tuc giim, n h a dau tvf se bi m a t so von k h a idn. Vi du, vao n g i y 2 7 / 1 0 / 1 9 9 7 khi chi so Dow J o n e s g i i m 4% (554 diem), cac n h a d i u txi tren thi trvfdng chvfng khoan My da mat 600 ty USD. Vi the. khi tinh lai cd phieu, n h a d i u tvf p h i i tinh t o i n c i hal yeu to l i cd tvfc va lai vdn.
Nhvf vay ty suat Idi n h u a n dd d o i n khi nSm nay b6 vdn mua cd phieu g i i PQ la:
Ty sudt Idi nhudn dd dodn:. r = ^ ^ i + (PJ-PQ) (i) Trong do: Po
DTV,: cd tvfc dvf d o i n nam sau (expected dividend) P,: gia cd phieu di/ d o i n nam sau (expected price) T^ s u i t l<?i n h u a n r la n h i d i u tvf di/ kl^n thu dvfdc gQl l i ty s u i t Iqfl nhudn mong dpi. Vi dy. n^u Po= 100, D7Vj=5, Pj=l 10, thi ty s u i t Ipl nhudn mong ddi r l i :
5 + 110- 100 r = 100 -= 15%
Ngvfdc lai, neu biet dvfpc cd tvfc dd d o i n n d m sau D/Vj, g i i dvf d o i n ndm sau P, v i biet dvfpc ty suat Idl n h u a n mong dpi r cua c i c cd phieu co ciing do riii ro nhvf cd phieu da mua la r. gia cd phieu h i e n tai co the x i c dinh theo cong thvfc:
p^^_DIVr^P^ (2)
Vi dy D/V, = 5. Po= 110, r =15%
t h i P o = ^ / j ^ ^ =100 Dl^u kl^n c i n b i n g trong mOt thi tnfdng ho^t dOng h o i n b i o l i tai mpi thdi dldm, t i t c i cac cd phie'u CO cung do rui ro nhvf nhau se dvfpc djnh gla bdi cung ty s u i t vdn hoa thj trvfdng.
2. PhUicrng ph&p d i n h gl& c ^ philTu t h e o ludng t h u n h ^ p c6 tAc (DDM)
Ciing lap ludn tifdng tvf nhvf tren. neu dvf doan dvfpc cd tvfc DIV2 cua n a m thvf hal. gii cd phl^u Pj n a m thvf hal va ty s u i t Ipl nhudn mong dpi r, thi chiing ta co the tinh dvfpc g i i cd phl^u ndm thuf
" ^ ^ ^ • ^ ' ^ p DIV,.P,
Tinh tifdng tif d^n n a m cuol H l i ndm nha dau tvf b i n cd phieu do di, chiing ta co the x i c dinh gia cd phie'u hien tai. Do chinh la g i i tri quy ve hien tai cua luong thu n h d p cd tvfc cho d e n ndm thii H cOng vdl g i i tri quy ve h i e n tai cua gia cd phieu n d m thvf H. Tr} sd n a y co the dvfdc tinh bdng cong thijrc:
DIV,,DIV2. .DIV„^ P„
1+r (1+rf (1+r)" (1+r)"
Noi c i c h k h i c . gia cd phieu hien tai chinh la gia tr} quy v4 hl^n tai ciia t o i n bp cac luong thu nhap trong tvfdng lai. N^u cd phieu dddc nhd dau tif nim gia v6 thdi b a n thi H se tl^n tdi 00. (thong thifdng, qudng ddl ciia co phi^u la v6 h a n vi no khong co thdi dl^m dao h ^ n . MOt cd phl^u co the difcfc chuydn quyen sd hiJu cho nhi^u ngvfdi thuoc nhl6u th^ hO md khOng i n h hvfdng tcfi gid tri gii dinh rang n h a d i u tif n i m glil cd phl^u do v6 thdi han).
Trong tnfdng h p p do, g i i tri hien tai c^a von gdc P„/(l+r)"se tien tdi 0 v i cdng thufc tren se trS t h d n h :
Po= S-TTTFT (3)
1+r
Tuy nhien, suf dyng cdng thufc (3) de tinh gla co phl^u tvfdng ddi phvfc t a p . T r e n thvfc t^, c6ng thvfc n a y chi dvfpc dp dyng khi t^ le t a n g tnfdng cd tvfc h a n g n d m la khong ddi (gii s ^ la g). Khi do, c6ng thufc (3) CO the vlet lai nhvf sau:
^ DIVi,DIVi(l+9) ... DIV,fi+qJ"-^ ,... _ DIVj^ (4) ' 1+r (1+r)'' (1+r)" r-g
Lifu y r i n g cong thufc n a y chi diing khi tdc d6 tdng tnfdng g nhd hdn t^ s u a t thu n h i p dif tinh 4 0 1 THOONG MflS6 7/2012
P H O B I I N K I I N T H O C
(tren thvfc te", ngvfdi t a g i i dinh r a n g t^ le t a n g trvfdng cd tvfc g luon nhd hdn ty s u i t Ipi n h u a n mong dpi r. Dieu n a y h o i n t o i n hdp ly, vi mong mudn bao gid ciing cao hdn thdc t ^ .
Mudn CO con sd chinh x i c de dvfa vao cong thvfc tinh toan, n h i d i u tvf p h i i p h a n tich tinh hinh t i l chinh ciia DN, tvf do dvf d o i n trien vpng c^a doanh nghiep trong tvfdng lai. Nguyen t i c tinh t o i n chung la:
+ Tinh Diy,: Thong thvfdng, ty le cd tvfc ndm d i u dvfdc tinh t o i n dvfa tren sd lieu ve cd tvfc trong q u i khvf, chinh s i c h p h a n chia cd tvfc trong tvfdng lai.
vfdc tinh thu n h a p ndm sau cua Cty..., tif do suy ra gid tri cd tvfc CO the nhdn dvfdc trong ndm tdi [DIV,].
+ Tinh g: Vlec vfdc tinh ty le tdng tnfdng cd tvfc ciia Cty p h i i dvfa tren k e t q u i ddnh gia tiem ndng p h i t trien ciia Cty ve lau d i i , chvf khong chi trong mpt n a m trvfdc mdt, bdi vi tdc dO t a n g trvfdng g dvfdc g i i dinh l i mvfc tang trvfdng deu ddn cua Cty trong sudt qudng thdi gian boat dOng. C i c sd lieu de tinh t o i n g phai la dd d o i n binh quan ve lau dii. Tdc do tang trvfdng cd tvfc dvfdc tinh theo cong thifc: g = ROE.b
Trong do:
b: t^ le p h d n t r a m Idi n h u a n dvfdc d a n h lai de t i i d i u tvf =1 - ty le chi cd tvfc =1 DJVj/EPSj.
ROE: thu n h a p rong/vdn cd dong = thu n h a p t r e n mOt cd phieu (EPS)/gii tri sd s i c h ciia mOt cd phieu.
+ Tinh r: JJdc tinh ty s u i t Idi n h u a n d i u tif (r), hay con gpi la lai s u i t chle't khau, c i n difa t r e n mvfc do nil ro ciia Cty p h i t h i n h . Cty co dO rui ro c i n g cao thi Idi s u i t p h i i c i n g Idn, bdi chi co nhvf vay thi n h i d i u tvf mdi chap n h a n bd tien mua cd phieu cvia Cty do. De x i c dinh r, chiing ta co the diing mOt sd cong thufc k h i c nhau tuy thuOc v i o cd cau vdn cua Cty p h i t h i n h .
Tuy nhien, cdng thvfc phd bien n h a t i p dyng mo hinh CAPM la: r = r^ + p (r^ Tf)
Trong do:
Tj: lai s u i t tinh phleu phi rui ro r^: Idi s u i t d a n h muc thi trvfdng P: mvfc do rui ro ciia Cty
Ve m a t ly thuyet, cong thvfc tinh r nhvf t r e n chi nen i p dyng trong trvfdng hdp Cty chi p h i t h i n h cd phieu.
Ntfu Cty p h i t h i n h cd phieu l i n t r i l phleu thi r
c i n dvfdc x i c d}nh theo phvfdng p h i p chi phi vdn binh quan gia quyen WACC (hay Trung binh trpng sd chi phi vdn - Weighted Average Cost of Capital) nhif sau:
^a = f" = r c _ E _ ^ ''fi_D_ ^_^j
D+E D+E Trong do:
r^: Ipl s u i t thu nhdp ifdc tinh tren tai s i n ciia Cty = thu n h d p boat dOng vfdc t i n h / g i i tri th}
trvfdng ciia t i t c i c i c loal chvfng khoan ciia Cty.
r^: lai s u i t gpi vdn cd p h i n , hay l i t^ s u i t vdn boa th} trvfdng (Idl s u i t yeu c i u ciia n h a dau tvf) va r^j l i lai s u i t vay np
E va D: khdi Ivfpng vdn cd p h i n v i vdn vay tvfdng vfng
t: thue s u i t
Tvf cong thvfc tren co the suy ra cong thvfc tinh Idl s u i t yeu c i u (lai s u i t chiet k h i u ) ddi vdi cd phieu nhvf sau:
re=ra+ (D/E) [r„- r^d-t)]
Cdng thvfc n i y cho t h i y neu Cty chi p h i t h i n h cd phieu thi r^ = r^. Khi Cty vay them vdn, riii ro cho cd dong se tang len v i vdn vay c i n g nhieu (ty le D / E Idn) thi mvfc dp rui ro cho cd dong c i n g Idn, do do cd dong yeu c i u Idi s u i t d i u tvf (r^) phai cang cao.
Tuy nhien, ddi vdi nhifng Cty p h i t h i n h cd phieu l i n d i u ra cong chiing thi n h a d i u tvf chvfa the ap dung c i c cdng thvfc t r e n de vfdc tinh r vi chvfa CO cd sd xem xet mvfc dO rui ro ciia Cty. Trong trvfdng hdp do, de x i c dinh t^ s u i t thu nhdp dvf tinh n i y , n h a d i u tvf c i n can cvf v i o ty s u i t thu n h a p dvf tinh ciia c i c cd phleu co cung mvfc rui ro cd phie'u c i n dinh gia. (de d i m bao dieu kien can bang trong c i c thi trvfdng vdn boat dpng h o i n b i o , tat c i c i c loai chvfng k h o i n co cung dO nil ro deu p h i i dvfdc c h i o b i n vdi cving mpt ty s u i t Ipi n h u a n dy tinh). Doi khi, nhdm thuan tien trong c i c h tinh t o i n , ngvfdi ta co the lay luon khung Idi s u i t chung hien h a n h tren thi trvfdng l i m cd sd x i c dinh ty s u i t thu nhdp r.
T r e n thdc t e , cdc Cty thvfdng co tdc dp t a n g tnfdng khong dn d}nh, v i vlec d i n h g i i nhifng Cty n i y se phiJc tap hdn r i t nhieu. Trong trvfdng hpp do, n h i d i u tif n e n chia nhd c i c giai doan p h i t trien ciia Cty t h i n h tifng chu ky t a n g trvfdng.
Chiing ta ciing xem xet vl dy dvfdl day:
(Cdn nda)
THOONG Mfl So 7/2012 1 4 1
