KHOA HOC - U'NG DUNG
. »
QUAN LY RUI RO CHO CAC DOANH NGHIEP CO VITA, NHO VA SIEU NHO
TS. NGUYEN THUC BOI HUYEN (•) T S . L E T H I 1 C I M Y E N ( * * ) TOM TAT
Trong bit cdnh hgi nhdp nin kinh ti thi gi&i, cdc doanh nghiep sdn xudt cua Viet Nam vita c6 nhiiu ca hgi vuan ra thi tru&ng nu&c ngodi vica chiu nhiiu thdch thitc tit cdc hiep dinh thucmg mai nhu: AFTA, WTO, TPP,... V&i ty trgng chiim khodng chiim 95-97% ting sd doanh nghiep cd nu&c thi cdc doanh nghiep vira, nho vd sieu nho (MSMEs) Id bd phdn chiu nhieu kho khdn vd rui ro trong hogi dgng sdn xudt kinh doanh. Vi vgy trong pham vi cita bdi ndy, chiing tdi sir dung mo phdng Monte Carlo de phdn tich ddnh gid riii ro.
Tit khoa: Doanh nghiep vita, nho vd sieu nho: qudn ly riii ro: Monte Carlo: Crystal Ball: WTO.
SUMMARY
In the integration into the World Economy, the Vietnamese enterprises have many opportunities to reach the world market and suffer challenges from trade agreements such as ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), World Trade Organization (WTO), Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP). Covering 95-97yo total number of registered enterprises. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have much more risks and difficulties in trade and production operations. Hence in this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis, assessment and management.
Key words: Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs); risk management; Monte Carlo;
Crystal Ball WTO.
1. Dat van de
Cac doanh nghidp cd vfta, nhd vd sieu nhd mdt sd khd khan n h u cdng nghe sdn xuat cdn (MSMEs) cua Viet N a m hidn su dung ttdn lac hdu; ttinh dp va tay nghe cfta dpi ngu lao 50% tdng sd lao dpng trong cac doanh nghidp, dpng cdn yeu k e m , p h i n Idn chua qua ddo tao tao ra 40 - 5 0 % hang hda phuc vu xuat khau va bai ban; k h a nang sinh Idi dd tai d i u tu it, ttong ddng gdp 2 0 % tdng thu ngdn sach Nha nude, san x u i t kinh doanh cdn thidu sir binh ddng...
Bdn canh nhftng ddng gdp quan trpng trong Didu quan trpng Id h i u bdt cde doanh nghiep nen kinh te thi cdng ddng M S M E s cdn gdp nhd va sidu nhd la nhirng doanh nghidp non tre phdn tich cue cho vide dn djnh xa hdi, xda ddi, mdi tbanh lap, vdn d i u t u cdn t h i p cung nhu gidm ngheo tai cdc vung cua dat nude, n h i t la kinh nghiem vd quan ly va kinh doanh v i n con d vung sdu, vung xa cdn nhidu khd khan. ban che.
Tuy nhidn, bdn ttong M S M E s v i n tidm i n Nhumg ydu d i e m ttdn cua M S M E s se lam
^ ^ ^ ^ Dsih^^6ilg^ThltfeplBmTPiiCM;(**)ph6Hi?uliuangTniOTigDLA AP CHI KINH TE - CONG NGHIEP
KHOA HOC - UNG DUNG ''^ ^S%'^it"^, -fe giam sue canh tranh vd boat ddng san xuit
kinh doanh cdn chua nhidu rui ro, khdng dn dinh. Vdi ttinh do quan ly thvrc te cfta Viet Nam can thidt phai ed mdt cdng cu quan ly rui ro bieu qua, gdp phin tang uy tin vd hr tin eho cac MSMEs teong bdi canh kinh td xa hpi hidn nay.
2. Doi tuong va phuomg phdp nghien cuu Ddi tupng nghidn cim trong de tdi la cdc doanh nghidp ed vfta, nhd va sidu nhd dang san xuat vd kinh doanh tai Viet Nam.
Phuomg phap nghidn cim bao gdm:
- Khai quat vd quan ly rfti ro.
- Phan tich ma ttdn SWOT dd nhdn dang nhiing rfti ro.
- Phan tich danh gia rui ro bdng phuang phap phdn tich djnh tinh va phdri tich dinh luong.
3. Ket qua va dien giai phan tidi l^et qua 3.1. Khdi quat vd qudn ly rfti ro
Rui ro vd qudn ly rfti ro la cac khai niem khdng mdi, tuy nhidn ldm thd ndo dd chuyen nhdn thftc thdnh cdc boat ddng thuc td trong qudn ly doanh nghiep. Trong bdi cdnh ndn kinh td thd gidi va trong nude dang cd nhidu bidn ddng vd khd khan ddn dap thi vide nghidn cftu quan ly rfti ro cho MSMEs Viet Nam la ydu eau tat ydu hidn nay. Theo nghien cim cua nhieu chuydn gia trdn thd gidi, thi rui ro cfta MSMEs tap trang d 3 nhdm:
a) Rui ro ngi lai (Structural risk): Bao gdm cac rui ro vd rao can tham nhdp, van dd canh tranh, thi phin ttong vd ngodi nude, khd nang hd ttp, vdng ddi san pham va tinh khdng dn dinh cfta ngdnh cdng nghidp nhd.
b) Rui rophdt Irien (Growth risk): Dvr bdo phat tridn trong tuong lai qua lac quan.
t:2r
c) Riii ro ben ngodi (Sensilility risk): Bao gdm cac rui ro vd ty gia hdi doai, lpi tftc, gia san pham vd ehu traong chinh sdch eua Chinh phft.
Vdi MSMEs Viet Nam, cac rui ro cdn mang nang dac thft cfta mdt nhdm nganh sdn xuit/
djch vu non tre trong bdi cdnh ndn kinh te chuydn tu bao cap sang co chd thi tradng vd ttong mdt mdi tradng canh tranh thd gidi day bidn ddng.
Qudn ly rui ro ludn di theo cac budc: xdc dinh cdc ydu ciu can qudn ly rfti ro, nhdn dang dupe loai rui ro, phdn tich danh gia tac hai cua timg loai rui ro, lap kd hoach umg phd va thvrc hidn hidu qud kd hoach ndy.
Xac djnh cdc ydu cau cdn qudn ly rfti ro la cdng vide can thiet cua cac nhd quan ly MSMEs; tft muc tidu sft menh doanh nghiep, can xac djnh qudn ly rfti ro la mdt cdng vide khdng the thidu dupe ngay tft khi xac djnh chien lupc doanh nghiep. Rfti ro khdng xau nhung didu quan trpng la phai bidt each kidm soat rui ro.
Nhdn dang nii ro thudng tien hdnh theo nhidu phuong phap, tuy nhien d mdi phuang phap can thudng xuyen kidm tra ddnh gia vd didu ehinh. Tmdc tidn chftng tdi se phan tich Ma tran SWOT, tft dd nhan dang mdt sd rui ro thudng gap.
3.2. Phdn tich ma trdn SWOT
Cac diem manh, diem ydu, ca hdi cung nhu thach thuc cfta MSMEs Viet Nam dupe ttinh bay dudi day:
a) Diem manh (Strengths)
SI: Cdng nghd sdn xuat ngan. Vdn ddu tu khdng Idn, thu hdi vdn nhanh.
S2: Kha nang xam nhap tri tnrdng kha tdt.
1 AP CHl KINH TE - CONG NGHIEP
KHOA HOC - UNO DUNG
S3: Tiep cdn sat vdi thj tmdng ttong nude.
S4: Cd vj thd ddi vdi khaeh hang.
S5: Chi phi nhdn edng khd re.
S6: San phim/dieh vu da dang.
S7: Mang ludi phdn phdi rdng.
S8: Cd ngudn tai nguydn vd ndng lam hai san ddi dao.
b) Diim yiu (Weaks)
Wl: Khdng cd kha ndng dap umg don dat hdng theo thdi vu.
W2: Chua chu ddng ngudn nguydn vdt lieu ttong nude.
W3: Chua quen nghidn cftu, img dung nghien cihi khoa hpc.
W4: Chua cd chidn lupc phdt tridn thuong hieu.
W5: Xudt khau qua trung gian, xftc tidn thuong mai chua tdt.
W6: Cdng nghd sdn xuat cdn lac hau so vdi thd gidi.
W7: Ddi ngu qudn ly, lao ddng tay nghd cao cdn it.
W8: Thidu vdn.
c) Ca hgi (Opportunities)
0 1 : Md rpng thi tmdng xuat khiu thdng qua cac hiep dinh WTO, TPP
02: Djnh hudng phdt tridn MSMEs eua Chinh phu.
0 3 : Dupe hudng uu ddi, muc thud thip.
04: Su phat ttidn edng nghd mdi.
0 5 : Nhu cdu tidu thu san phdm ttong nude ngdy cang tang.
06: Trinh dp gido due cua Viet Nam dupe ndng cao.
d) Thdch thu-c (Threat)
Tl: Gid cudc van tai, gid nguydn lipu, diSn nude, xang diu lidn hie tang cao.
T2: Rfti ro vd ty gid.
T3: Bdo hda thj ttudng hdng gia dvmg ndi dja T4: Xam nhdp hdng hda Trang Qudc va thd gidi.
T5: Thj hidu va yeu ciu chdt lupng ciia ngudi tidu dftng ngay cang tdng.
T6: Van dd mdi tradng.
3.3. Xay dimg ma tran rui ro
Sau khi nhan dang cdc nil ro, budc tidp theo phai phan tich danh gia dupe tae ddng cua mi ro. Thudng dung hai phuong phap: phdn tich djnh tinh (phu thupc chu quan ngudi phdn tich) va phdn tich dinh lupng se tinh toan theo cdng thftc hoac theo md hinh todn hpc (thucmg dftng md hinh Monte Carlo).
3.3.1. Phan tich djnh tinh
Phan tich djnh tinh thudng phan tich hai dac tinh cfta rui ro: kha ndng (xac suit) xay ra cua rui ro va mftc dd dnh hudng ndu xay ra rfti ro. Trong thirc td, kdt hpp hai ddc tinh nay bang each thidt lap Ma tran rfti ro (Hinh 1) de sip xdp thft tvr ftu tien giai quydt theo Nguydn tie Pareto.
KHOA HOC UNG DUNG
Hinh 1: Ma tran rui ro
Luon luon Thuang Co tha it Hiem
^ l i l
Nghiem trgng Nghiem J trpng • Cao
Nhieu Dang ke 1
Ifi'.'r-'*^!^, Nghiem J
trong f
Cao Nhieu Dang ke 1 Vua phai
Cao Nhieu Dangke • Vua phdi Thdp
9
NhiSu Ddng k^ 1 Vua phdi Thap Rdt thdp
•™
Dang ke Vua phdi Thap
Rdt thip
Phan tmh dinh tmh nii ro ciia MSMEs co the chia lam 7 miic dp:
- Rui ro rSt thap: Nhu cau san pham ky thuat cao ngdy cang gia tang.
- Rui ro thap: Van de 6 nhiem moi truang va bien doi khi hau.
- Rui ro vira phai: Trinh dp vd tay nghe cua dpi ngu lao dpng con yeu.
- Rui ro dang kl (quan trong): Cong nghe sdn xuat con lac hau so vai the gioi.
- Rui ro nhieu: Canh tranh khong binh ddng vai cac doanh nghiep lan trong nuac.
- Rui ro cao: Xam nhdp ciia hang hoa Trung Quoc, cac nuac tren the giai.
- Rui ro nghiem trong: Riii ro ve thieu von.
Sau khi phan tich danh gia, sap xep thii tu uu tien cac loai nii ro, buac ti^p theo la phai xay dung cac giai phap ung pho neu rui ro xay ra. Thong thuang co 4 hinh thiic: chap nhdn nii ro, tir bo, gidm thieu nii ro va san se nii ro cho to chiic hoac ca nhan khac. Giai phap tot nhat la san se rui ro de tiep tuc duy tri muc tieu cua
doanh nghifp md khong loai bo cac giai phap khdc.
De ling pho vdi nii ro thieu von, co nhiing giai phap nhu: co che vay uu dai cua ngan hang, Chinh phii trp gia, lien ket "cac nha" theo chuoi gia tri, ky hpp dong vai bao hiem, huy dpng, tim dau ra o nhieu nuoc tren the gioi.
Viec phan tich dinh tinh nii ro thuong xay dung cac tieu chuan, thang diem vd can sii dung phuang phdp chuyen gia, thong ke dieu tra xa hpi hpc de han che tinh chii quan. Song song voi phdn tich dinh tinh, can tien hanh them phan tich dinh lupng.
3.3.2. Phan tich dinh luong
Phan tich dinh lupng bao g6m phan tich dp nhay (What if?) va phan tich mo phong.
- Phan tfch 36 nhay: dung phdn m6m thong dung nhu Excel.
- Phan tich mo phong: thuang dung mo hinh toan nhu mo hinh Monte Carlo, thong qua phan mem Crystal- Ball, khi cho cac bien nii ro thay doi theo mot quy luat phan bo thong ke, se
TAP CHI KINH TE - CONG
KHOA HOC - ITNG DUNG
cd kdt qua dvr doan theo mdt xac suat nap do.
Khd khan eua phuang phdp nay la phai chpn quy luat phdn bd thdng kd phft bap vdi cho hmg dang bien riii ro.
• Vdi bidn rui ro la ty gid hdi doai thi cd the chpn phdn bd Student's:
/ ( z , d ) = Trong dd:
r : ham gamma
r(^)
Vrf;rr(^)(l + ^ ) =
z = ^ - ^ -m<x<x,0<d<30,s>0 s
• V d i bidn rfti ro la gia m u a thidt bj, gia ban san phdm, lai s u i t vay ngan hang,... thi cd thd chpn phan bd tam giac:
ft \ - h(x-Min) Likeliest ~ Min
^ ( , ) , /.(Mox-x) Max - Likeliest
2
Nam 1 (Mil, LikeUest, M a x ) = (-90,-100,-110) N a m 2 (Min, Likeliest, M a x ) = (30,50,55) N a m 3 (Min, Likeliest, M a x ) = (40, 50,60) N a m 4 (Min, Likeliest, M a x ) = (45, 50,60) N a m 5 (Min, Likeliest, M a x ) = (35, 50,55) N a m 6 (Min, LikeUest, M a x ) = (30, 50,60) N d u khdng phdn tich rui ro, chftng ta dd dang tinh ra tri sd N P V = 71,64 ty v a nhanh chdng kdt ludn dvr an sinh Idi ldm. D o a n h nghiep se quydt djnh vay ngan hdng ngay.
Tuy nhien n e u p h a n tich rui ro bang mo phdng Monte Carlo ( p h i n m e m Crystal Ball), thi se cd ftng xft khac. Dftng phdn bd tam giac cho bidn rui ro lai s u i t se cho ket qua d Hmh 2.
Hinh 2: Khai bao phin bo tam giic cho lai suat.
Min <x< Likeliest Likeliest <x< Max
Max-Min
M o t vi dvi cu the ve irng dung phdn mem Crystal Ball
Mdt doanh nghiep tu nhan vay tien ngan hang de ddu t u day chuyen cdng nghe san xuat banh quy b o vdi lai suat la 12% mdi nam. Phdn tich ddng tidn cho thay:
Nam Dong tien
I -100
2 50
3 50
4 50
5 50
Tuong tvr khai bdo phdn bd tam gidc cho bien rai ro ddng tien nam thft nhat, kdt qua cho d Hmh 3.
Hinh 3: Khai bao phin b6 tam gidc cho dong tien ndm 1.
Hay phan tich N P V (Net Present Value) dd quyet djnh ddu tu? Cho bidt lai suat va ddng tien ddu la cac bidn sd rui ro, dao ddng gifta tri so Min vd Max:
Lai suit (Min, Likeliest, M a x ) = ( 1 0 % , 12%, 15%)
FAP CHI KINH TE - CONG NGHIEI
•
KHOA HOC - ilNC DUNG
Lan lupt khai bdo tiep cho tat ca bien rui ro ddng tidn nam 2,3,4,5 va 6 tuang tvr nhu trdn.
Hinh 4: Kit qua NPV.
Ccrainir 1711 % ^ b A . ,
Sau khi cho chay md hmh Monte Carlo, kdt qua eho thay du an cd NPV = 71,64 ty ddng chi vdi xdc suit Id 17,11% (Hmh 4). Didu quan
tepng Id khi doanh nghiep mudn dua ra nhieu tej sd NPV ky vpng khdc nhau, thi may tinh se tinh nhanh ra trj sd xac sudt tuang iing vdi hing NPV.
4. Ket luan
Thdng qua viec sft dung ma tran rui ro, md hinh Monte Carlo vdi phdn mem Crystal Ball, chftng tdi dd phan tich va trinh bay vide quan ly rfti ro cho MSMEs Vidt Nam theo thdng Id qudc td. Thay vi phan tich hidu qua dau tu vdi nhttng sd lieu don gian chu quan hoac phuang phap phan tieh dp nhay thdng thudng, thi eac MSMEs Viet Nam cin qudn ly rfti ro bing phuang phdp md phdng, vfta dd thuc hidn vfta chinh xac trong bdi cdnh canh tranh trdn phuong didn toan ciu.
Tdi lieu Iham khdo
[1]. Khrystyna Kushnir, Melina Laura Mirmulstein and Rita Ramalho (2010), Micro, small, and medium enterprises around the world: How many are there and What affects the count?. World Bank/IFC.
[2]. Oracle Crystal Ball, User's Guide, Fusion Edition, Release 11.1.2 (2010), Performance management system, Oracle enterprise.
[3]. Oracle Crystal Ball, Developer's Guide, Fusion Edition, Release 11.1.2 (2010), Performance management system, Oracle enterprise.
Ngdy nhan: 10/3/2015 Ngdy duyet dang: 08/4/2015
TAP CHl KINH TE - CONG NGHIEP
