0 BIEN KIEN THUC
Nghien cuU cac nhan to' tac dong den tang tru'dng
kinh te tinh Phu Yen
TS. DO PHO TRAN TINH Trtfang Dai h o c Kinh te' - Luat TP. Ho Chi Minh ThS. VO XOAN Hpi Trudng Dai hoc XSy dtfng mi^n Trung
Phti Ygn la mOt trong nhflng tinh co toe d6 t a n g trifdng kinh te' of mu'c cao, binh quan giai doan 2001-2011 la 11,72%. Tuy nhidn, di duy tri va tang td'c trong thcfi gian tdfi, viec p h a n tich cac n h a n td' kinh t § ' t a c d d n g dd'n t a n g j trifdng, n h a m de r a cac giai p h a p khai t h a c va su* d u n g hi§u qua cac I nguon life cho tang trifofng kinh te'cua Tinh la vS^n d^ cS'p thid't. 1
la yd'u td' cd' dmh cdn tai nguyen ed xu htfdng giam sut. Nhtf vdy, ba yd'u td' trffc tid'p tde dgng de'n tdng trffdng la vdn, lao ddng va yd'u td' nang sua't ede nhdn td' tong hdp (TFP).
Tff ham sdn xud't trdn, sff dung phffdng phap toan hoc bid'n ddi, ta xae dinh dffde ede nhan td' ddng gdp vdo tde dd tang trffdng kinh te va dtfdc vid't rut gon dtfdi dang sau: iig^^=g^ - a g , - pg^
Trong dd:
|.ig.j.pp la ddng gdp cua ye'u to TFP ndng suat cac nhdn to"tong hdp vdo tdc do tdng GDP
agj la ddng gdp cua ye'u td' Iao ddng vao td'c do tang GDP
Pg^ la ddng gdp cffa yd'u td vd'n vdo td'c do tang GDP
g la tde do tang GDP gi la td'c dd tang lao ddng g^, la td'c do tang vd'n g.j,pp Id tde do tang TFP
\i, a, p la ede so' luy thffa, phan dnh tj le can bidn cua ede yeu to' dau vao, cdn goi la he sd'co gidn cffa lao ddng, vd'n vd TFP theo GDP.
Bdi vie't chu ye'u sff dung phffdng phdp nghien cffu dinh tinh, trdn cd sd sff dung ede cdng eu phan tich, tong hdp, so sdnh va dd'i chid'u. Ngoai ra, bdi viet cdn siJ"
dung phtfdng phap dinh Itfdng thdng qua Ca SO LY THUYET
Nhdm tdc gia sff dung md hinh tdng trtfdng Solovv' vdi ham san xua't Cobb-Douglas. Ham sd'nay ndu ldn md'i quan he giffa stf tang ldn eua ca dau ra va ede ye'u to dau vao, nhtf: vd'n, lao ddng, tai nguydn va khoa hoc edng nghd.
Ham san xua't Cobb-Douglas cd dang:
Y = f (K,L,R,T...) Trong do: Y Id san Itfdng dau ra (GDP, GNI)
K la vdn san xua't L la sd' Itfdng lao ddng R la ngudn tai nguydn thidn nhidn T la khoa hoc - edng nghe.
Ham sdn xua't trdn cd the vid't lai^dtfdi dang:
Y = TFP'_L° k
Ham nay khdng dffa ye'u td' tai nguydn thidn nhien vdo VI theo ede nhd kinh te' hoc hien dai, thi dS't dai
w--rpr
f AS^:!.. 1
md hinh kinh te* Itfdng cd sff dung phan mem SPSS 16.0.
KET QUA NGHrEN CLfu (Bai viet sff dung each viet sd thap phan qudc te)
Tff so lieu Nien giam Thd'ng kd tinh Phu Yen giai doan 2001 - 2011, nhdm tdc gia tinh todn cdc gia tri LnY, LnL, LnK de lam cd sd cho ede tfdc Itfdng (Bang 1).
Tff sd lidu thd'ng kd v^ ' G D P ( Y ) , lao d6ng(L), vdn(K) giai doan 2001-2011 ciia tinh Phd Ydn, nhdm tac gia sff dung md hinh Solow d^ xde dinh ddng gdp cua ede y^u td' vao tde dd tang trffdng kinh te' cua Tinh theo cdng thffe:
gY= fig^pp+agL+^pgK, trong do;
agL Id ddng gdp cua yd'u td' lao ddng j3gK la ddng gdp cua ye'u td' vd'n pgj,pp Id ddng gdp eua yd'u td edng nghd.
Tff ket qua ffde Itfdng a va p (Bang 2), ta thd'y: Khi tdng 1% yd'u tdlao ddng, thi GDP nen kinh te' eua Tinh se tang 1.704% (trong dilu kidn cdc yd'u td'khde khdng ddi). Cdn, khi tang 1% ye'u to vd'n, thi GDP cua nen kinh te* Tinh sd tang 0.691% (trong dilu kidn ede ye'u td'khde khdng ddi).
Ket qua md hinh cho thd'y, ede kiem dinh thdng kd deu ed y nghia. Bie'n doe ldp K ddm bdo cd y nghTa thd'ng kd vdi dp tin cdy 99.9%, bid'n ddc lap L dam bdo y nghTajhd'ngke91.2%.
Ddng thdi cho ra kd't qua (Bdng 3 va Bdng 4) nhtf sau:
Dffa vdo cdc kd't qua tfdc Itfdng, chiing ta ed the thd'y, trong 3 ye'u tddau vao tde dpng dd'n tang trtfdng kinh td' eua tinh Phd Ydn trong giai doan 2001-2011, thi y^u td vd'n ed dnh htfdng ldn nha't de'n tdc dp tdng trtfdng kinh te' Tinh vd ehid'm 65.77%, tid'p theo dd la yd'u to' lao ddng chidm 27.62% vd yd'u to nang sud't cac nhdn td tdng hdp chid'm 6.61%. Trong cdc yd'u td dnh htfdng de'n td'c dp tdng tnrdng kinh td', thi ddng gdp cua yd'u td' lao dpng cd xu hffdng giam dan qua ede ndm, ddng gdp cua yd'u td' vd'n vd edng ngh^ cd xu hffdng tdng dan.
MOT S6 GIAI PHAP
Thdnhdt, gidi phdp ve ndng cao higu qud sUldgng vdn
D^y manh thu hiit vd'n dau tff vd sff dyng ngudn vd'n n&y ed hidu qua. Phu
Ydn can ed nhffng cd che, ehinh sdeh manh tay dd'i vdi ede ehu dau tff, nha thau cham tid'n dp cdc edng trinh trpng yd'u... nham tang td'c dp giai ngan cae dff dn cd nguon vd'n dau ttf ttf ngan sach nhd ntfdc. Dong thdi, can tid'p tue hodn thidn ed che, ehinh sdeh de thu hiit manh dau ttf eua khu vtfc ttf nhan vd ede doanh nghiep
BANC 1: TONG SAN PHAM (GDP), LAO OQNG (L). VON (Kl CUA TINH PHU YEN GIAI DOAN 2001 - 2011 Nam
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP {ty dong)
1,694.77 1,875.39 2.094.80 2,337.58 2,603.03 2,913.81 3,305.16 3,709,37 4,125.26 4,650.38 5,261.35
L (nghin ngircfi)
412.69 425.32 438.68 448-45 455.97 460.42 465.89 473.17 480 81 495.36 498.71
K (ty dong)
900.52 966.52
LnY 744 7.54 l.liO.46 7.65 1.247.29 7.76
!.355-64 i.590.78 1,787.49 2,172.68 2,373 62 2,605.50 2,711.00
7.86 7.98 8.10 8.22 8.32 8.44 8 57
LnL 6.02 6.05 6-08 6-11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.16 6.18 6.21 6.21
LnK 6.80 6.87 7.01 7.13 7.21 7.37 7.49 7.68 7.77 7.87 7.91
BANG 2: KET QUA HE SO HOI QUY CUA MO HINH
Model B
'
N (Constant) LnL LnK yuonlsiVlici^
Unstandardized Coefficients
Beta
Standardized Coefficients -7 550
1 704 . 0 270 0 691 1 0 731 irnL \\Mv\-- b 11 H I , , 111 ) l i l i n t
t Sig. VIF
; 1 -1 707 0 126
1 944 0 088 4 50 5 253 0 001 4.50 10 lifidii! S i ' S S l(>ilJ
BANC 3: O O N G C 6 P CUA CAC YEU l6 N C U O N Ll/C vAO T d c D O TANG T R U C I N G KINH TE GIAI DOAN 20t>I - 2011
f)(((l VI- ' ,
Nam 2001-2005 2006-2011 2001-2011
gY 10.85 12.45 11.72
RL 2.37 1.51 1.90
SK 9 68 12 39 11 16
agL 4.04 2.57 3.24
pgK 6 69 8 56 771
HgTFP 0 12 1 32 0 78 BANG 4: TY LE DONG G 6 P CUA CAC YEU TO VAO TOC DQ T A N G
TRUdNG KINH TE QUA CAC CIAI DOAN
TJ phan dong gop vao to'c do lang trifcing kinh le tinh Phu yen_(%)_
Tong cong] Yen to | Yeu
! lao dong (L) 2001-2005
2006-2011 l()0 00_
KJOOO 100 0 0 ,
! Y e u lo nang!
v 6 n ( K ) ' sua't nhan ' t d tong hiJp
(Tl-H) 6 i . 6 4 1 1 1
Ngu6n: so liC-u linli ui.ii : « ) ! - 2 0 1 l
Bwnomy and ForcLjsi Review
73
3IEN KIEN THCfC
ntfdc ngoai. Can cd chinh sdch da dang trong vide phat trien cdc phffdng thffc d^u tff, dae biet la phffdng thffc hdp tde edng - tff (PPP), nham ndng eao hidu qua d^u ttf, tang hidu sud't sff dung vdn.
Dau ttf cho cdc vung kinh te' trpng diem, ede nganh kinh te' chu Itfc. Day ciing Id di^u kidn dd^ nang cao hieu qua vdn dau tff, dam bao lay hidu qua kinh te' - xa hdi lam muc tieu hang dau va la dieu kien can thie't nham tao ra nhffng "dau tau" trong tdng trtfdng kinh te' Tinh. Mud'n vay, Phu Ydn can thtfc hidn tai ed ca'u dau ttf, phdt trien kd't ed'u ha ting kinh td' - xa hdi theo quy hoaeh vd mdt hd thd'ng phdn ca'p dtfdc ra sodt chat ehe theo tim nhm dai ban va tff duy Hen vilng.
Thd hai, gidi phdp vi ndng cao chdt lUffng ngudn nhdn lUc
Phu Yen can nhanh chdng hoan thien chie'n Iffde phdt trid'n ngudn nhdn Itfc gan vdi chie'n Itfde phdt trien kinh te' - xa hdi eua dia phtfdng, cua vung, nham tao ra Iffe Itfdng lao ddng cd the dap ffng td't nhu ciu phat tridn kinh td' - xa hdi Tinh trong ttfdng lai.
Tie'p tiae hoan thien ke't ea'u ha tang, xay difng, hodn thidn vd hien dai hda ede ed sd ddo tao ve trang thid't bi, cd sd vSt cha't ky thuSt can thie't nham dap tfng td't nha't nhu eau day vd hoe. Day la ye'u td' he't sffc quan trong, tao ndn eha't Itfdng gido due vd eha't lffdng ngudn nhan Itfc. Ngoai ra, can tie'p tiac thtfc hien eae chlnh sdeh thu hut nhdn tai ve cdng tdc tai Tinh, ed ede chinh sach v^ thu nhdp, phuc ldi vd nhd d de ngtfdi lao ddng, edng chffc, vien ehffe yen tam lam viee lau dai tai dia phtfdng. c l n gan edng tde ddo tao vdi sff dung ed hidu qua ngudn nhan Itfc. Dong ihdi, can tid'p tuc ddi mdi vd hodn thidn ehinh sdeh tin diing tfu dai dd'i vdi hpe sinh - sinh vidn cd hoan canh khd khan, nham tao didu kidn thuan ldi de ede ddi ttfdng nay ed nguon tai ehinh dn dinh de an tam hoc tdp, gdp phan nang eao eha't Itfdng gido duc vd eung la eha't lffdng nguon nhan Itfc v^ sau.
Bdn canh do, Phu Ydn can day manh xua't kha'u lao ddng, dac biet la lao ddng da qua ddo tao nghe, lao dpng ndng thdn. Tao dieu kien de ngtfdi lao ddng ldm vide trong mdi trtfdng ehuyen nghiep tai cac edng ty trong va ngoai ntfdc, de ho cd th^ hoc hdi kinh nghiem.
Tff dd, phdt huy dtfdc trinh dp ehuyen mdn, trinh dp quan ly, tay nghe cffa minh, gdp phan nang cao ehd't Itfdng ngudn nhan Itfe trdn dia ban Tinh. Mud'n vay, Nha ntfdc can cd ed che', chinh sdeh thdng thoang hdn, ed bien phdp hd trd tin dung de ngtfdi lao ddng d ndng thdn, mien nui, vung khd khan ed dieu kidn dffde di xud't khiu lao dgng tai nffde ngoai.
Ngoai ra, Phu Ydn cln phai cd ehinh sach vd ed
ehe de bd sung kip thdi dpi ngu can bd khoa hoc, cdng nghe kd' can hong cdc cd quan nghien etfu trien khai, cd quan quan ly vd ede doanh nghidp trong he thdng nha ntfde. Cac ed che' ehinh sdeh phai tao dieu kien eho edn bd khoa hpe cd cd hgi tham gia phdt trien nang Iffe nghien ctfu khoa hgc. Cu the la phai ed ed che rdng budc, che' dd dai ngg thich ddng nham thu hfft cdc life Itfdng can bd khoa hpe cdng nghe tre, tdt nghiep loai gidi dtfde dao tao trong va ngoai ntfde vdo ldm viec cho cac cd quan nhd nffde.
Dau tff phdt tri^n cac cd sd dao tao nguon nhdn liJe v^ khoa hoc cha't ltfdng cao trdn dia ban bang viec hien dai hda trang thid't bi phuc vu eho hoat dgng dao tao, cd chinh sdeh quy tii vd mdi ggi ddi ngu edn bg giang day ed trinh dd cao ve cdng tac, cdng tac vdi cac trtfdng va ed sd ddo tao d dia phffdng. Dau ttf nang cap trang thie't bi va ed sd vat ehd't cho eae phong thi nghidm hidn ed, cd chinh saeh tfu dai thu hut diu ttf khoa hpe - edng nghd tff ngoai Tinh, tin hpe hda ede cd sd dff heu khoa hoc, edng nghd phue vu phdt trien kinh td' - xd hdi.
Thdba, gidi phdp ve phdt trien khoa hgc, cong nghe
Tinh nen tang effdng qudn ly nhd ntfdc v^ khoa hgc, edng nghd, nhtf' bao hd sd hffu edng nghiep, bao hd sd hffu tri tud...
Kien todn bg may quan ly khoa hpe, cdng nghd, nha't Id kidn todn Hdi ddng khoa hoe, ky thudt Tinh theo htfdng ndng eao vai trd ttf va'n va phan bien, thdm dinh nhffng nhiem vu phdt trien kinh te' - xa hOi. Ddng thdi, ed chid'n Itfdc phdt trien cdng nghd cho ttfng nganh vd linh vtfe eu the...
c l n ed chinh sach ffu dai dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghidp mdi dffdc thdnh ldp dtfa tren cac kd't qua nghidn cu^i, tri^n khai, thff nghiem de nhanh ehdng dffa khoa hpe, edng nghe vao san xud't. Nhd't la cae chinh sdeh tfu dai ve thud' trong viec doanh nghiep sff dung edng nghd mdi, hien dai, ehd'tdc san pham mdi theo dung quy dinh eua Nhd nffdc.Q
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Dang bg tmh Phu Ydn (2011). Bdo cdo chinh tri cda Ban Chdp hdnh Ddng bd tinh khda XN trinh Dgi hot dgi biiu Dang bo ttnh khda XV, nhiem ky 2011-2015
2 Tran Thg Dat (2005). Cdc md hinh tdng trudng kinh ti, Nxb Thd'ng kd, trang 18 - 20 3. Cue Thd'ng ke tinh Phu Yen (2002^2012). Nien gidm Thdng ke ttnh Phd Yen cdc ndm (2002- 2012), Nxb Thdng ki
