TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH^ NANG LU'(?NG - TRL/dNG OAI HOC DIEN Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 5 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) I
SCF D U N G THUAT TOAN M O DT LLTA CHON VJ TRI N H A MAY NHIET D I E N
APPLICATION OF FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD IN THE SITING OF THERMAL POWER PLANT
Chu Viet ThiJc\ Le Van Thien'' 'TruOTjg Oai hoc Bl$n Li/c,
^Tru^ng Dal hoc Swpham Th^nh ph6 l-l6 Chi Minh
Tom tat:
Xay di/ng vj tri cua nha may nhiet dien la biTdc dau tien trong thiet ke he thong dien, chiu anh hu'dng cua nhieu yeu to, vi du nhu" nhan to xa hoi, ky thuat, moi tru'dng, kinh te,... do vay, danh gia muc tieu khi xac dinh vj tri cua nha may nhiet dien doi khi chu'a ro rang va ngau nhien. Bai bao nay se gidi thieu ifng dung cua phu'dng phap su" dung entropy diia vao danh gia ham md tong hop de xay dutig vj tri nha may nhiet dien, la mot vi du de uhg dung phu'dng phap entropy dir^ vao danh gia ham md tong hdp.
Tiy khoa:
LuS chpn vi tri nha cho nha may nhiet dien, trpng so Entropy, danh gia ham md tong hdp.
Abstract:
Thermal power plant sitting is the prime step in whole power plant design system, which is affected by so many factors, such as social factors, technical, economic, and so on. So, thermal power plant sitting for the objective evaluation of the ambiguity and randomness. This aim of this paper introduce application entropy based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in thermal power plant sitting, this method take the site of a thermal power plant sitting as an example of the exerting of the entropy based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
Keywords:
Thermal power plant siting, entropyweight, fiizzy comprehensive evaluation.
1. DAT V A N D £ nha may dien than chiem ty trpng khoang Theo quy hoach dien VII (di6u chinh) dS 42,7% tftc toong duong khoang 31 nha duoc phe duyet thi muc tieu d6n nam " ^ y va den nam 2030 chiem Idioang 2020 cong suit dien duoc sin xuSt tir cac -^^.C'/o tuong duong khoang 52 nha may [1]. Theo so lieu ke tren thi trong tirang Ngay nhan bai: 14/7/2017, ngay chap nhan lai gan nuae ta vSn phu thuoc nhieu vao dang: 20/9/2017, phan bien: TS. Nguyen Van nhiet dien.
Tiem.
So 13 thang 11-2017
I
TAP CHi KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/CfNG ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 S 7 )Viec lira chpn vi tri xay dumg nha may nhiet dien ia m5t vSn de rat phiic tap, no anh huong true tiSp den hieu qua hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh ciia chinh nha may do va ca doi vai sinh hoat, san xuat va moi tnrdng xung quanh. Do vay trong qua trinh lap du an tien kha thi cho mot nha may nhiet dien can phai xem xet danh gia tdng quat thong qua cac phuang dien ve mat hieu qua kinh te, xa hoi va moi truong.
Hien nay eo mpt so phuang phap dupe ap dung de lua chon vi tri xay dung cac nha may nhiet dien tuy nhien cac phuang phap d6 chii yeu dua vao danh gia dinh tinh thong qua kinh nghiem cua cac chuyen gia hoac dcm thuan lua chpn dia diem phu thupe vao "vung triing" thieu hut dien nang, hoac chi moi xem xet den loi the ve mat van chuyen nguyen lieu hay dcm gian chi la can cu vao chu truong thu hiit dau tu... ma ehua luong hoa duac cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thu^t tong hpp.
Chinh vi cac li do tren, ma vice xay dung mot phuong phap de nhSm muc di'ch luong hoa dupe cac chi tieu, phuong an la mot huong c6 tinh dp thiet, eo y nghia khoa hpc va thue tiln.
2. XAY DU-NG HE T H 6 N G C H I TIEU 2.1. Xay diFng ma tran chi tieu danh gia tong hap
De xac dinh vi tri xay dung nha may nhiet dien, buoe dau tien can phai xay dung dupe he thong chi tieu eSn thiet de danh gia. He thdng chi tieu phue vu danh gid can can cu eac dae tnmg cua cae d6i tuang de xac dmh tren nguyen t&c quan he giiia cac chi tieu la dpc lap va c6 the so
- TRl/dNG DAI HOC OiEN Ll/C
sanh cac im, khuyet diem cua no. Cae chi so CO tinh trdng hap se lam tang miic dp anh huong va do do sS lam giam tinh chinh xac cua viec danh gia.
Gia sir dia diem du kien xay dung nha may dupe bieu thi l a P = {7^,/^,.,.,/^), he thdng chi tieu tong hap phuc vu danh gia la Z = (Z^,Z2,...,Z^,), ta eo the bieu thi thong qua ma trSn X, voi m la s6 chi tieu, n la chi so danh gia tuong ung.
(1)
Trong do: Xij la mot thang do dinh luong tai chi so cung capy thong qua chi so danh gia/.
2.2. Hieu chinh ma tran chi tieu Thu nguyen cua cac chi tieu trong he thong chi tieu danh gia la khong tuang dong, dieu do bieu thi chung eo y nghia vat ly khac nhau do do ta khong the tien hanh so sanh true tiep chung voi nhau. Vi du chi tieu dac trung trong ma tran X, cac phan tii trong kho dii lieu deu ehua dupe hieu chinh, do vay ma truoc khi tien hanh danh gia tong hop cac chi tieu can dupe tien hanh xii li, hieu chinh. Theo nguyen li ve thong ke thi khi tien hanh so sanh cac chu6i dit lieu c6 thir nguyen khae nhau thi eo the tieu chuan hoa no, chuyen hoa thanh cae tieu chuan khong thii nguyen roi mai tien hanh so sanh. Thong thuang phuang phap khong thii nguySn
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG LUONG - TRl/C(NG OAI HOC DIEN LL/C I ( I S S N : l B 5 g - 4 5 5 7 ) 1 gom CO 3 loai sau: duong thSng, duong
g^p khiic, duong cong. Trong bai nay phuang phap duong thang dupe chpn de ap dung [2].
Thong thuong cac chi tieu c6 the phan thanh cae truong hop nhu: Truong hap hieu qua (cang Ian cang t6t), truong hop gia thanh (cang nho cang t6t), truong hpp CO dinh (cang tiep can den mot gia tri li tuang p nao do cang tot) va truong hap khoang thai gian. Ap dung cong thuc bien doi cue tieu, cac chi tieu dupe hieu chinh nhu sau:
1) Chi tieu doi voi truong hgfp hieu qua.
r^j = {Xy -min(x,.)) / (max(:\:y) - min(:)i:y)) (2) 2) Chi tieu doi voi truong hop gia thanh.
r^j = (max(jCy )-Xy)/ max(Xy) ~ min(Xy) (3) 3) Chi tieu doi voi truong hop c6 dinh.
r,j=lO-\x,j-fi\/max\x,^-fi\
(4) 4) Chi tieu doi voi truong hpp khoang thoi gian
10-{O,-J:^) xka, -min(.ir,^)),(max{x,^)-«;)' ''
10 •,x,^s[a,,a^]
K (o, -min(j:^)),(max{JC(,)-^:)|
(5) Thong qua bien doi, voi 0 < r^ < 1, cac ehi tieu la duong va toi uu nhat la 1, thap
nhat la 0 thi ma tran dac tnmg sau hieu chinh se la:
(6)
Sau khi sang Ipc, ta xay dung dupe he thong chi tieu danh gia viec lua chpn vi tri de xay dung nha may nhiet dien trong bang 1.
Lira chpn vi tri dat nha may
BSngl.Hf
Nhan to k i n h t e
Nhan to moi truong
Nhan to x a h p i
thong chi tieu danh gia - He thong dien - Dieu kien dja chat - Van chuyen than - Dia hinh, dia mao - He thong cung cap n u a c - 0 nhiem khong khi - 0 nhiem nguon mrdc - Tro xi va bai thai - Dien tich chiSm dung dat - Dieu kien dan cu - A n h hirdng sinh thai - Pha d o cong trinh - Phan b 6 nguon lire - Dieu kien ky thuat - Dieu kien tai chinh - Dieu itien sinh hoat
3. PHUaNG PHAP PHAN TICH THLf BAC XAC DjNH MLCC DO ANH HU'^TNG Hien nay de xac dinh trpng so bao gom c6 cae phuang phap chu yeu la phuong phap trpng so khach quan va chu quan. Thuong gap CO phuang phap phan tich thii bac - APH (Analytic Hierarchy Process),
So 13 thang 11-2017 15
I
TAP Chi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/qflMG ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 )phuong phap phan tich thua so, phuong phap Etropy... Tuy nhien cac phuang phap xac dinh trpng so ke tren chu yeu phu thuoc vao kinh nghiem danh gia cua eac chuyen gia hoac cac dii lieu do cae ea nhan thu thap duoc do vay van ton tai cac sai so khach quan dan den tinh chinh xac ehua cao. Do do, trong bai bao nay tac gia ket hpp hai phuong phap trpng so khach quan va ehii quan de xac dinh ehi tieu trpng so tong hpp [3] lam co so giai quyet vande.
3.1. Xac djnh chi tieu Entropy va trong so Entropy
Entropy c6 the dupe dung de do luong miic dp cua thong tin, moi mot chi tieu nao do CO the truyen tai theo nhieu thong tin, dieu do the hien chi tieu do c6 vai tro cang Ion. He thong Entropy li(p\j}2..,Pn) dupe the hien nhu sau:
H(p^,p^...,pJ = -kY,p,lnp, (7) Trong do: k - hm, n la so trang thai kha nang trong h6 thdng; p, la xac suit xuAt hien cua mot loai trang thai nao do frong he thong. Trong do,;?, thoa man 0 < p , < 1, 2_,Pi=l, d6ng thai quy dinh khi p, = 0 thi;
-k^p_\np,=Q
Ket hpfp cong thuc (1) va (2):
H,=-kf^f,\nf,^{i=lX..,n)
Trong do: /,. =^^j'Y^^,j
(8)
(9)
• TRl/dNG DAI HOC OI^N t y c
Trpng so Entropy ciia chi tieu thii i duoc dinh nghia la:
l-H,
T(^-ff.)
(10)
Thong qua muc dp Ion nho cua trpng so Etropy CO the phan anh cac chi tieu khac nhau trong miic dp tac dung de di den quyet djnh. Khi moi chi tieu gia tri Entropy tuong doi nho, trpng so Entropy tuong doi lotn thi c6 nghia chi tieu do da cung cap eho nguoi ra quyet dinh nhieu thong tin hiiu ich, c6 gia tri cao. Dieu nay dan den cac vector trpng so chi tieu danh gia dua tren trpng so Entropy la:
f ^ « = ( w « . " ' L - , ^ ) (11) 3.2. Xac djnh mipc anh hu>d>ng tong htyp
Do trpng so chi tieu dupe xac dinh bang phuong phap Entropy dua hoan toan vao m6i quan he giua cac dir lieu de xac dinh, tuy nhien cac chi tieu trpng s6 khach quan CO Iiic khac biet vai dieu kien thuc te ma eac trpng so do chuyen gia xac dinh deu bat ngu6n tir kinh nghiem thuc te cua hp.
Do do cae trpng so do chuyen gia danh gia, chpn lua (trpng s6 khach quan va chu quan) can duoc tong hop, lupng hoa.
Ket hpp ket hpp hai phuang phap trpng so khach quan va chu quan de xac dinh chi tieu trpng s6 tong hpp duac bieu thi boi cong thuc w' nhu sau:
w' e'
^'=^;r^- (12)
16
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG N G H | N A N G L I / O N G - TRl/dNG OAI HQC DI^N Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 B 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) 1 Trong do: W^e' la gia tri miic dp anh
huong duoc xac dinh tii phuong phap Entropy; e' la gia hi muc dp anh hudng do chuyen gia danh gia. Tii do, muc dp anh huong cu6i cung la:
W = {w\y/,...,yr') (13)
4. XAY DITNG BO TIEU C H U A N VA C A P C H U A N DANH GIA
Trong truong hpp binh thuong, cac danh gia dupe chpn trong day so nguyen tu 3 - ^ 9 . Neu no qua Ion thi viec dung ngon ngii de mieu ta se rat kho khan va l^i khong de de phan doan miic dp rang bude va phu thupe. Neu no qua nho thi lai khong phu hpp vai yen c4u chat lupng danh gia tong hop. Tap danh gia lua chpn dia diem xay dung nha may nhiet dien dupe bieu diln nhu la: V = {V\, V2, K3, V4} = {Rat tot, tuong doi tdt, binh thuang, tuang d6i kem}.
5. XAC DjNH MIJC Dp PHU THUOC Sir dung phuang phap eho diem eua cac chuyen gia de dung cho bang he s6 miic dp le thuoc cua cae chi tieu.
6. D A N H GIA T O N G HOP
Viec danh gia muc dp le thuoc cua ma tran voi he so anh huong uong ling boi cae tap phep nhan c6 the dat dupe ede ddnh gia t6ng hpp toan dien. Vi dy d6i v6i nhan to kinh te c6 the diing phuong phdp phan tich thii bac (AHP) de xac dinh tap he s6 anh huong la: Ai — (an, an, ^n, au), tir ham so le thuoc dat dugc ma tran
'121 '122 1,1 ^«
(14)
Dan den danh gia tong hop cua phuang dien nhan to kinh te nhu sau:
B^=A,xR^ =
= (aii,ai2,a,3,fl,4)x
= (6,„6,„6,3,6,J
(15) Can cii phuong phap nhu tren de danh gia cap 2 doi vai cac phuang dien khac de tien hanh danh gia tong hop. Cuoi cung tien hanh danh gia tfing hpp doi voi vi tri lua chpn xay dung nha may nhiet dien.
7. vi DU PHAN TICH
Lay mot nha mdy nao do lam vi du, can eii phuong phap Entropy lam phuang phap xac dinh miic dp anh hucmg dat dupe cac chi tieu phan anh miic dp anh hucmg nhu bang 2. Lua chpn 10 chuygn gia de tien hanh danh gia hieu qua t6ng hpp doi vai mot nha may nhiet dien nao do nhu bang 3.
So 13 thang 11-2017
I
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/pNG - TRl/CfNG DAI HOC DIEN Ll/C ( I S S N : 1 B 5 S - 4 5 5 7 )Being 2. H$ so Snh hirang
Nhan to kinh te:
(0,3)
Nhan to moi truong:
(0,3)
Nhan to xahpi:
(0,4)
- He thong dien - Dieu kien dia chat - Van chuyen than - Dia hinh, dia mao - He thong cung cap nude - 0 nhiem khong khi - C) nhiem nguon nude - Tro xi va bai thai - Dien tich chiem dung dat - Dieu ki?n dan cu - Anh hudng sinh thai - Pha d& cong trinh - Phan bo nguon lye - DiSu kifin ky thuat - Dieu ki?n tai chinh - Dieu ki^n sinh hoat
0,270 0,090 0,240 0,120 0,280 0,060 0,080 0,180 0,380 0,150 0,150 0,153 0,182 0,142 0,254 0,112 Bang 3 Danh gia hif u qua toan dien cho mpt cong trinh bM ky
Nhan to
Nhan to kinh
Nhan to moi tnrong
Nhan to xa hoi
Tieu chi danli gia - He thong dien - Dieu kien dia chit - Van chuyen than - Dia hinh, dia m^o - He thong cung cap nuoc - 0 nhiem khong khi - 0 nhiem nguon nuac - Tro xi va bai thai - Dien tich chiem dung dit - Dieu kien dan cir - Anh huong sinh thai - Pha do cong trinh - Phan bo nguon lire - Dieu laen ley thu^t - Dieu kien tai chinh - Dieu kien sinh hoat
Miic danh gia Rat t6t
3 2 1 0 2 0 2 3 3 2 0 2 1 2 1 0
T6t 4 4 7 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 4 4 5 3 6 5
BT 3 2 1 4 3 5 4 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 2 3
Xiu 0 2 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 2 I 2
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH{ NAN6 Lt/ONG - TRUdNG OAI HOC DIEN Ll/C I ( I S S N : 1 3 5 9 - 4 5 5 7 ) 1
Can cii bang 3, ta c6 ma tran le thuoc ctia tong hop danh gia hieu qua cua viec lira chgn vi tri xay dung nha may nhiet dien la:
0,3 0,4 0,3 0 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2
0,1 0,7 0,1 0,1 (16) 0 0,3 0,4 0,3
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
" 0 0,3 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,1 0,3 0,4 0,3 0 0,3 0,2 0,5 0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 0,4 0,4 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,5 0,4 0
0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2 (18) 0,1 0,6 0,2 0,1
0 0,5 0,3 0,2
(17)
Tien hanh danh gia tong hop doi vai cap thir nhat, d6i vai cac nhan t& kinh te Ai, nhan to moi tniong A2, nhan to xa hpi Aa
\kn lixgt la:
4 = (0,270; 0,090; 0,240; 0,120; 0,280) 4=(0,060;0,080;0,180;0,380;0,150;0,150) 4=(0,153;0,182;0,142;0,254;0,112)
Ta du(?c:
B,=A,xR, =(0,179;0,432;0,25;0,134) (19) B j = 4 x i i j = ( 0 , 2 1 4 ; 0 , 2 9 5 ; 0 , 4 1 1 ; 0 , 1 1 0 ) (20) Sj = 4 x ^ =(0,125; 0,4481;0,304;0,1299) (21) Thi:
0,179 0,432 0,255 0,134 B= 0,214 0,295 0,411 0,110 (22)
0,125 0,4481 0,304 0,1299 Ket qua danh gia cuoi ciing la:
T = AxB (23) '0,179 0,432 0,255 0,134
= (0,3;0,3;0,4) 0,214 0,295 0,411 0,110 0,125 0,4481 0,304 0,1299
= 7,286
(24) Tuong ty nhu tren, c6 the tinh tong diem cua vj tri dir dinh dat nha may thii 2, thijr 3 sau do dua vao miic diem cao thap de so sanh, lua chpn de xuat cac dir an tdt nhat CO the d6 duofc mi tien dhu tu.
8. K^T LUAN
Bai bao nay da ling dung phuong phap dung nhieu cap danh gia toan dien ma de giai quyet van de kinh te - ky thuat, moi truong va xa hoi tong hgfp gap phai khi tien hanh lira chpn vi tri de xay dung nha
So 13 thang 11-2017 19
I
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE NANG Ll/ONG ( I S S N : 1 8 5 9 - 4 5 5 V )may nhiet dien. Trong qua trinh danh gia da xem xet d§y du, toan dien cac nhan to anh huong d6ng thai xay dung he thong chi tieu de phuc vu danh gia. Thong qua diem s6 cua cac chuyen gia da xay dung dupe trpng so cua cac chi tieu va ma tran quan he ma, tu phan tich dinh tinh den tinh toan dinh luong. Phuong phap nay khong chi su diing cho mot du an ma c6 the su dung de danh gia cho nhieu du an
TRl/dNG OAI HOC DIEN Lt/C
nha may nhiet dien sau do tien hanh so sanh v6i nhau de lua chpn ra phuong an toi uu nhat nham phat huy toi da hieu qua dau tu. Tu ket qua nghien cihi a tren, hi vong phuang phap nay c6 the duoc diing lam tai lieu tham khao hoac ap dung dk tinh toan xac dinh vi tri d6i voi cac nha may nhiet dien se dupe xay dung a nude ta trong nhimg nam toi.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] http://evn.com.vn/d6/news/Quy-hoach-dien-VII-dieu-chinh-Phat-trien-nh[et-dien-than-the- nao-6-12-18109.aspx
[2] Diep Minh Hai (2005), So tay danh gia hieu qua kinh te va cai tien ky tiiuat nganh dien. Nha xuat ban Nhiep anh Cat Lim.
[3] Wang, Ting, and Bing chuan Xin. Thermal power plant sitting based on T0PSI5 method. Procedia Engineering 15. 5384-5388, 2011.
Gidi thieu tac gia:
Tac gia Chu Viet Thu'c, sinh nam 1981, tot nghiep dai hpc va thac sy chuyen nganh xay duYig cong trinh ngam tai Tn/dng Dai hoc Mo - Dja chat nam 2005 va 2010. Nhan bang Tien sy dia ky thuat (cong trinh ngam) tei Tru'dng Dai hpc Vu Han (Trung Quoc) nam 2016. Hien la giang vien Bp mon Cong nghe xay dutig - Khoa Cong nghe cd l<hi - Tru'dng Dai hpc Dien ii/c.
Hu'dng nghien cdu; cac van de ve cd hpc dat da; cong nghe, ky thuat thi cong cong trinh.
