TB.UONG DAI HOC DONG T H A P Tap Chi Khoa hoc sg 24 (02-2017;
THAM GIA TPP: CO HOI VA THACH THU'C DOI Y6I N G A N H D E T M A Y VIET NAM
• Ton T h i t Vienn
Tkeo ddnh gid cUa cdc ckuyen gia ldnh te, Hiip dinh Ddi tdc xuyin Thdi Binh Duang (TPP) co thi tao ra su thay ddi ldn trong thuang mai det may todn cdu vd Viet Nam dang dqt rdt nhiiu kp vong a thi tru&ng rgng ldn nay, ddc biit Id tki trudng My. Tuy nhien vai hiep dinh TPP noi riing vd FTA noi chung Ididng dcm thudn cki dua Iqi cdc ca koi tdt cho Viet Nam. Mudn biin ca kdi tkdnh hiiu qud kinh ti cho Viet Nam tki ngdnh dit may cdn khac phuc trudc nhicng thdch th^ pkdi doi mat tic hiip dinh nhu cdt gidm thue quan, md cmi tki trudng dick vu, ddp imgyiu cdu lao ddng, mdi truang... Bdi viet dank gid nkitng cakoi vd thdch ihuc ndy, dua ra mdt sd g^^ chink sdch.
Tic khda: dit mc^, TPP, l^itNam, cakoi, tkdch thicc.
1. Dat van de gia doanh nghiep. Do dd, nganh DMVN co bdn Vao n g ^ 05/10/2015, VietNam cung vdi 11 khdng cdn doanh ngfaiep 100% von nha nudc va quoc gia da ket ihuc dam phan va ky ket IE$p dinh da da dgng hda toan dien vdi sir tham gia cuanhilu Doi tac xuyen Thai Binh Duong (Trans-Pacific
Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement - viet tdt TPP), mOt hiep dinh/thod thu|n thuong mai tu do nhieu ben vdi myc fich hpi nhap cac nen kinh te thupc khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, tiieo do cac rao cdn tiiuong mgi se bi xda bd giiia cac quoc gia. Trong "san choi" nay, quan he thuong mgi cua Viet Nam vira cd tfaem co hOi nhung cung khdng it thach tinic [2]. Trong 12 thanh vign TPP, Viet Nam diing thu 8 ve dien tich, tini 4 ve dan s6, tini II ve GDP, thii 8 ve xuat khau, thii 8 v^ nhap khau. Trong 12 nudc, cd 4 nudc nhap sieu, Idn nhat la My; cd 8 nudc xuat sieu, trong dd cd Vi^t Nam.
Viet Nam tham gja Hifip dinh TPP da va dang nhgn dupc su quan tam rdt Idn cua mpi thanh phan ttong xa hpi, dac biet cac doanh nghiep nganh d$t may.
Can hdi dupc ^ t ra la nganh det may se nhgn dupc lpi ich gi khi tham gia TPP va se phai doi mat vdi nhiing khd khan nao khi Hiep (£iji cd hieu Iyc va can Idm gi trong tiidi gian tdi? Bai nghien cuu di tim cau tta Idi cho cac cau hdi tten.
Hifin tai, nganh det may Viet Nam (DMVN) cd khodng 6.000 doanh nghiep, trong do chii y i u la doanh nghiep tu nhan, doanh nghiep FDI. Doanh nghiep nhd nudc ttong nganh dfit may hign nay chi cdn Tap doan DMVN vdi 5 cong ty tiianh vien 100% von, cdn lai la cac thanh vien cdng ty co phan. Budc vdo nam 2014, Tgp doan DMVN tien hanh co phan hda, hifin tai da hoan tiianh vific dinh '•'Tmcmg Dai hpc Lao dpng - Xa h6i (CSII) 9 6
thanh phan kinh te. Den nay, nganh det may tiep tuc khang finh dupc vai'ttd la nganfa cdng nghi|p quan ttpng, chii ch6t ttong tiin trinh cdng nghiep hda, hien dgi hda ciia Viet Nam, dac biet Id ttong qua trinh chuyen doi lao ddng tir ndng nghidp, nong tfadn tiianh lao dpng cdng nghiep. Nganh d^t may dang chiem khodng 10% Iyc lupng lao dpng cong nghidp cua ca nudc va Id ngdnh su: dyng nhieu Iao ddng nu nhdt. Trong ngdnh dfit may, cii vdi 1 ty USD xuat khau tang them thi cd the tao ra vi?c Iam cho 150 nghin Iao dpng, ttong do cd lOOngdnlao dpng frong doanh nghiep d$t may va tir 50 nghin lao dpng tai cac doanh nghiep hd ttp khac. Thu nhap trung binh nam tgi cac doanh nghi#p d$t may nam 2010 dat khgang 1.500 USD/cong nhan, nam 2012 tang Ien 2.000 USD/cdng nhan va nam 2015 dy kien dat tten 3.000 USD/cdng nhan. Hi?n Vi?t Nam da vuon Ien x i p vi tri tini 4 tten the gidi ve xuat khau hang raay mac [5].
2. Mot s^ ton tai cua DMVN hien nay Xudt khau DMVN cd the dat ngudng 22 ^ USD nam 2014, trudc khi ky ket cac Hi^p dinh, dac bifit Id TPP, nhung quy md sii dung cac loai nguyen lifiu ciia Vi^t Nam mdi chi dgt dudi 10 ty USD [10]. Con so nay v i n cdn nhd, chua du siic hap dan de doanh ngbidp dau tu vdo sdn xuat nguyen lieu. Muon day manh dupc khu vyc san xuat nguyen lieu, ndng cao ty le npi dia hda tiii van de tien qi^et la phai tang dupc qity md xudt khau.
Neu nhu vao thdi diem trudc nam 1995, t^ Ifi noi dia hda ciia nganfa d?t may dudi 20%, tiii hi?n nay
T R U Q N G DAI HOC DONG THAP Tap chi Khoa hpc s6 24 (02-2017)
^ dgt tten 50%. Day la budc tien dang mimg ctia nganh det may khi budc sang nam mdi 2014 va cung gdp phan han che nhap sieu tu Trung Quoc.
Tay nhien, con so ndy van cdn thdp so vdi yeu cau ma TPP d a t r a
Theo dng Le Trung Hdi, Phd Tong giam doc Tip dodn DMVN, dau tu vao det nhudm ddi hdi bi qysyet cdng nghe, von dau tu Idn, dpi ngii cdng nhan phai Ianh nghe. Cai nao tao ra sieu Ipi nhugn till ciing se gap nhieu nii ro ldn. Hi?n nay, de dau tu mpt nha may d^t, nhupm phai cda 20 den 30 tri^u USD, ttong khi do, dau tu mpt xudng may chi can khoang 50.000 - 100.000 USD. Chmh vi v|y, tiiu hiit ^ u tu vdo may van nhieu hon. Doanh nghiep FDI frong ngdnh dfit may chiem den 60%, chii yeu 6 ngdnh may [9].
Theo dng Nguyen Sy Phuong - Phd Vien trudng Vifin Det may, mdt so bat c ^ nay sinh vi mdt
^ doi trong quy hosich det may chinh Id cdng nghe ho frp cdn yeu, phan ldn vdi va phu Ii|u may phy
&upc vdo n h ^ khau. Lien ket trong chudi cung ung yeu, chua hinh thdnh dupc cdc cum, cac khu cdng ngjiiepdetmay. San xuat mdhinh gja cdi^ chiim ^ lfi cao, gia tri gia tang, ky nang qudn Iy san xuat cdn yeu. Hieu qua sii dung tiiiet bi spi, det, nhupm chua cao. Cdng tac thu thgp, phan tich, cung cdp Ihdng tin, thi trudng frong nudc vd quoc te chua kip thdi.
Cbinh vi vay, mac du ddng dau tu dang dich chuyen sang cac nudc Ddng Nam A, frong dd cd Vifit Nam, thi trudng tieu thy ngay cdng dupc md rpng, phat trien do cac hiep dinh FTA mang Iai nhung kha nang cgnh ttanh tir thi trudng Trung Quoc, Bangladesh, hidonesia, Campuchia ngay cang quyet liet. Ben canh dd, cac rdo can ky thugt ve vp sinh, an toan, mdi trudng, frach nhiem xa hdi, chong ttp gid cd xu hudng ng£^ cang ^ g . Siic thu hiit hap din nhan Iuc cho ngdnh dfit may ngay cdng yeu di so vdi cac ngdnh cdng nghiep khac [9].
Theo so lieu ciia Hiep hdi DMVN (Vitas), so doanh nghifip may chiem den 70%, dfit dupc 17%, keo spi 6%, nhupm 4%, phu frp 3%. Nhieu doanh nghiep det, nhupm tai Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh muon tim noi mdi de dich chuyen san xuat, nhung cac dia phuong deu ne franh vi sp d nhifim. Cac doanh nghifip cho biet hp san sang dau tu vdo det nhupm neu nha nudc ho frp khau xu ly nudc thai, vi mpt minh doanh nghiep ty dau tu he thong xii
Iy nudc thai se ton cfai phi Idn... [3].
3. Ctf hoi cua DMVN tu- T P P
Gia nhap TPP se la mpt co hpi Idn cho DMVN dang tten dd phat trien manh me va la budc dem de tiin xa hon. Lpi ich ma TPP dem Igi dupc nhin theo hai khia canh: tir thi trudng nudc ngoai va tii thi trudng frong nudc.
3.1. Ctf hqi tix thi trudtig nud'c ngoai Lpi ich d thi trudng cac nudc doi tac TPP the hien d hai hinh thuc chu yeu:
3.1.1. Thue quan (ddi vdi thuang mqi hdng hda) Lpi ich ndy dupc du doan se cd dupc khi hang hda cua Mfit Nam dupc Iuu thdng d tiii trudng nudc do vdi miic thui quan thdp hoac thue suat bdng 0%. Vdi Ipi ich nay, xuat khau hang hda vdo thi trudng My, Nhdt thuc sy Id mpt lpi the cgnh ttanh Idn cho Viet Nam, dgc biet d mpt so nganh nghe truyen tiiong nhu: det may, da giay, Iiia gao, nhdm hdng ihay san, ndng san... [8].
TPP khdng chi dem Iai lpi ich cho hdng hda xuat khau ciia Viet Nam ma keo tfaeo do la Ipi ich cua tat ca cdc Iihh vyc lien quan nhu tgo viec lam gidm that nghiep, nang cao trinh dp ngudi lao dpng... Vi dy nhu: TPP cd the se giup nganh DMVN tiep cgn tfai trudng Hoa Ky vdi miic thue sudt 0%
so vdi miic thue tten 7% hifin nay vd nhu vs^ muc kim ngach sang thi trudng n£^ se khdng dung lai d miic 5,2 ty USD nhu nam 2009 [12].
3.1.2. Tiip can tki trudng (ddi vdi tkuang mai dich vu vd ddu tu)
Ve ly thuyet, Viet Nam se dupc tiep can thi trudng dich vy cua cac nudc doi tac thuan Ipi hon.
Tren tfauc te dieu ndy khdng phdi de dang do nang Iyc cung c ^ dich vy cua cac doanh nghifip ttong nudc cdn yeu kem. TPP se mang lai cho M$t Nam nhieu co hpi tiiu hiit FDI. Sau khi gia nhgp WTO, ddng von FDI vao Viet Nam tang manh. Den bet nam 2010, Viet Named 12.213 du an cdn hifiu Iuc den tir 92 quoc gia vd vimg lanh tho, vdi tong von dangky 129,9tyUSD.FDIddngvai frd quan frpng cho tang trudng xuat khau vd tang thu cho ngdn sach Nhd nudc, gdp phan tgo vific lam cd chuyen mdn, ky thuat cao... [11]. Tuy chat lupng van cdn nhieu hgn chi nhung sy tang tiiu hiit FDI cho thay tin trudng Vfit Nam da ttd nen hap dan hon vdi cdc nha dau tu nudc ngoai. TPP se giiip det may cd them dieu kien hpp tdc qudc te de phyc vy chien 9 7
TRUCJNG DAI HOC DONG THAP Tap chl Khoa hgc s6 24 (02-2017) lupc phat trien kinh t e - x a hpi, trien khai chien
lupc hpi nhgp quoc te ndi chung va chien lupc doi ngoai d khu vyc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong ndi rieng, nang cao vi the tten trudng quoc te, cung co frgng thai can bdng ttong quan he vdi cac doi tac chii cfaot, gdp phan duy tri va cung co mdi tnrdng hda binh, on dinh vd bdo dam an ninh, qu6c phdng.
3.2. Ctf h$i tit thi truofng n$i dia Vdi TPP, tili trudng ndi dia se khai thdc dupc nhieu thi mgnh.
3.2.1. Viic gidm thue kdng nkdp khdu tie cdc nu&c TPP
Ngudi tieu dung vd cac nganh sdn xuat sii dung ngayen Ii$u nhap khau tu cac nudc frong TPP Iam nguyen lifiu ddu vdo se dupc hudng Ipi tu hang hda, nguyen lieu gia re, gidm chi phi sinh boat va sdn xudt, tang Ipi nhuan cua cac doanh ngbidp, dong thdi nang cao ddng gdp cho ngan sdch nhd nudc.
3.2.2. Nhicng khodn ddu tu, dich vu din tic Hoa Ky vd cdc nu&c ddi tdc TPP
TPP dem Igi nhieu co hdi thu hiit dau tu FDI tir cac nudc, dgc bifit cac nudc d6i tac, nang cao mdi trudng kinh doanh trong nudc khien cac doanh nghifip cung cap dich vy chdt lupng tot hon vdi gia rfi cungvdi nhiing doi mdi cong nghetien tien, hien dgi hom. Day vua Id ddng Iyc vira Id siic ep di cac ngdnh npi ^ a thay doi, tien bp hon v i mpi mat.
3.2.3. Nhimg thay doi ihi cki, cdi cdck M ddp ung ddi koi chung cua TPP
TPP bao trum nhiing van de thiet yeu, quan frpng frong qudn Iy kinh te vi md, giup DMVN cd nhimg hudng di mdi de gidi quyet cac van d i cdn ton dpng cung nhu md rpng hpi nhgp vdi cac quoc gia frong khu vyc. Hon tiie niia, TPP dupc ky vpng se ho ttp tich cue qud trinh tai co can va doi mdi md hinh tang trudng tiidng qua vific phan bo nguon luc tiieo hudng hifiu qua hon, tao budc phat triin mdi cho nin kinh te.
3.2.4. Viic m& cua thi truang mua sdm cua cdc qudc gia thdnh vien
0 Viet Nam, khai mem "mua sam chinh phu"
hay "mua s§m cdng" cdn chua pho biin. Viec tuan thu cac diiu kifin ve mua sam chinh phu frong TPP Id bat budc doi vdi tdt ca cac ben tiiam gia nham su dung tili frudng mua sam chinh phii de kich tiiieh tiiuong mai quoc t i phat tnin vdi toe dp nhanh vd binh dang hon giiia cac ben tiiam gia ky kit, tiuic 9 8
day giai qi^et cac vdn de khdng minh ha.ch frong fao^t dpng mua sdm cdng.
3.2.5. Viec thuc tki cdc tieu ekudn vi lao dong, mdi tru&ng
Cac dieu kipn mdi ve mdi tmong, lao dOngse Id dpng luc thuc day nudc ta cd nhung chinh sach bdo v? mdi trudng cung nhu cfainfa sacfa Iao dpng trong nudc hpp ly' hon.
Tdm Igi, tham gia ky ket TPP Id dieu can thiet doi vdi nen Idnh te V e t Nam dang frong thdi ky hdi nfagp kinh te quoc te.
3.3. Ctf hoi vdi cac doanfa nghiep \\^t Nam Tham gia TPP khdng chi dem Iai Ipi ich cho tong tiie nen kinh te ma cdn mang lai nhung co hpi Idn cho cac doanfa ngfaipp ttong nudc tfadng qua vific md rdng tiep can tin trudng va nang cao kha nang cgnh ttanh. TPP duoc ky vpng se giiip cac doanh nghiep c5 nhd va vua hpi n h ^ tot ban vao lan sdng tiiuong mgi toan cau. Ngodi nhiing co hpi den tir gdc nhin tiii trirong quoc t i va npi dia, TPP tao dieu Iden tang cudng xuat khdu va md rdng thj trudng cho DMVN. Dd la ket qua c^a yfiu cau xoa bd thue quan nhdp khau, giam thue cho hang xuat khau doi vdi cac tfaanh vien ngay khi Ififip dinh co hieu luc, tu dd Iam tang co hpi xuat khau cho cac doanh nghiep Vi$t Nam.
Khi tiiam gia TPP, hang hda cua Vifit Nam co dieu kifin tham nhdp sau hon vdo tin trudng Hoa Ky,Nh^tBdn... lanhiing quoc gia cd quy md kinh t i hdng dau tiie gidi, chiim Ian lupt 56,91% va 21,64% GDP ttong tong cac quoc gia tiianh vien ttong Hiep dinh TPP Theo tinh toan, khi tiiam gia vao TPP, V e t Nam se gia tang nhanh chdng hogt ddng thuong mai vdi Efoa Ky, die bifit Id cd nhieu dieu ki?n d i xuat khau cdc mat hang cd thi manh cua V p t Nam vao thi trudng nay [6].
Trong khoi dam pfaan TPP cd 2 thi trudng rat quan frpng la Hoa Ky va Nhat Ban. Thi trudng Hoa Ky bipn chiem 4 3 % tong kim ngach xuat khau d^t may ciia Viet Nam, Nhat Bdn chiim 11% va cac nudc TPP khac dang chiem khodng 4%. Nhu vgy, khoi cac nudc TPP dang chiem gan 60% tong kim ngach xuat khdu dfit may cua Vpt Nam Rieng nam 2012, da cd gan II ty USD xudt khau det may cua VietNam vdo cac nudc TPPflO]. Cy tiie, kim nggch xudt khau sang thi tiudng My dgt 5,6 ty USD, tang 8%; sang EU dat 1,81 ty USD; sang Nhat Ban dgt
IUI^(3NG DAI HOC E)6NG THAP Tgp chi Khoa hgc so 24 (02-2017) 1,45 ty USD, tang 18,7% va sang Han Quoc dat
748 tri$u USD, ^ g 18,5%. Dii kmh te tiii gjdi g^
nhieu khd khan, xudt khdu d^t m ^ chiu tac dpng gidm siit don hang, nhung tai thi trudng My, Nh|t Bdn, Hdn Qudc van cd tang trudng cao Id nhd uu dai tir cac hi$p $nfa thuong mgi song pfauong vd da phuong giiia \^$t Nam, ASEAN vdi My, Nhat Ban, Han Quoc. V v ^ , khoi cac nudc TPP Id thi tnrdng quan frpng nhat cua nganh DMVN frong hi?n tgi va tuong Iai. Thyc te hi§n nay, dii dupc
£inh gia Id mdt frong nhiing nudc san xudt, cung ung hang det may d top dau ciia tiie gidi (diing thli 4 the gidi), nfaimg so vdi 500 ^ USD tieu tiiu hdng det may toan cau mdi nam thi con so 16 din 17 ty USD xuat kfadu cua Vet Nam vdn cdn qua khiem ^n [1].
Vi vdn di bdn pkd gid vd tra cdp: kfai tfaam gia TPP, Viet Nam se cd co fapi dupc tham vdn vdi chinh phu cac nudc doi tac vi cac vu kien chong ban pha gjd va chong trp cap. Vet Nam khdng ch!
cd dupc cam ket ciia cac tiianh vien ve vific khdng Sli dung hoac han che cac bien phap chong ban pha gia ma cdn cd co hpi su dyng cac cam kit cua TPP ve hdng rdo ky thuat vd cac bien p h ^ ve sinfa dich te de franh cac ttanh chap. Day la Ipi thi di doanh nghiep Vpt Nam tang xuat khdu vdo My va cd khd nang canh franh cao faon doanh nghidp mpt so nudc khdng phai la thdnh vifin cua TPP nhu Trung Quoc, Bangladesh...
Nhiing lai ich khde md TPP mang Iqi: TPP tao xung lyc day nhanh qua trinh co phan hda cac doanh nghiep nha nudc, md cua tin trudng mua sam; thugn Ipi ttong tiep cgn thi trudng lhanh vien TPP, cai thien cac bifin p h ^ ban che n h ^ khdu;
do vgy Viet Nam cd co hpi dupc cdng nhan Id nin kinh te thi trudng sdm hon...
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nam. Trong nam 2013, xudt khau det m ^ ciia Vpt Nam sang Hoa Ky cimg tang trudng 13%, ttong khi Hoa Ky chi tang trudng nhgp khau det may tir tdt ca cac nudc tten the gidi khoang 3%. Dieu nay chung td till phan ciia DMVN ludn dupc cdi thi$n tgi thi trudng Hoa Ky.
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Tang trudng kim ngach xuat khau dfit may vao Hoa Ky nam nay, ben canh cau chuyen ve Ipi thi canh ttanh cua Viet Nam cdn cd sy ddn dau, chd dpi cua cac nha n h ^ khau d6i vdi Hifip djnh TPP. Neu TPP dupc ky kit sdm, toe dp tang trudng cd the dupc duy tri 15-20% frong giai dogn 2014 - 2017. Nhu vgy, tu nay den nam 2017, quy md xudt khau dfit may vao Hoa Ky cd the dat 20 ty USD va den nam 2025, quy md xuat khau cua toan ngdnh cd thi dat tten 50 ty USD. So vdi quy md 20 ty USD ciia nam 2013 thi xudt khau dfit may se dat toe dp tang g ^ 2,5 lan ttong 7 nam. Dd la chua tinh den nhieu yiu to kha bien khac nhu quy mo thi trudng hdng may mac ciia Hoa Ky, cdc yeu to sdn xudt det may tai Viet Nam nhu khd nang ty md rpng, tu tang trudng nang luc san xuat de ddp ling nhu cau nhap khau, sy md rpng cua Hifip 99
TRUCJNG DAI HOC DONG T H A P Tap chi Khoa hgc so 24 (02-2017]
dinb TPP va sy pho bien cua cac FTA khac. N i u TPP gdp phan tinic day tot vdo ddu tu nguyen lieu nhu dy kiin thi cac cbi tieu ve xuat sieu, gia tri gia tang, ty 1? npi dia hda ciia Ngdnh deu dupc nang cao. Du kiin nganh se sdm dg.t myc tieu ty Ie npi ^ a h d a dgt 60% vao nam 2015 va 70% vdo nam 2020. Nam 2013, nganh d$t may xuat sieu khoang 9 ty USD, n i u xudt khau tang nhu dy bao, nam 2015 V p t Nam xudt khdu dgt khoang 25 t^
USD tin liic dd gid tri tao ra tai V e t Nam khoang 13-14 ty USD [10]. Tuy nhien, TPP ndi rifing va FTA ndi chung khdng don thuan chi dua Iai cac CO hpi tot cho V e t Nam. Mu6n biin co hpi thdnh hifiu qud kinh te cho V e t Nam can cd nhung dieu kifin nhdt dinh ttong hiep dinh.
4. Thacfa Ihirc cua DMVN tir TPP Trong kfai t n ^ e n thdng ciing nhu cac doanfa nghiep det may, cdc chiq^en gia va to chuc kinh te tinh toan nganh DMVN se cd su tang trudng manh me, tang gap 3 kim ngach xuat khau vdo thi trudng My, dat miic 20 t>' USD vdo nam 2020;
Doanh nghiep DMVN se duoc hudng lpi rat Idn nhung vdi thyc frang nganfa hifin nay, cdng chung hoai nghi ve khd nang den nam 2016 nganh DMVN van chua hpi dii dieu kifin de hudng Ipi vd cd the thua ngay tren san nha, chua k i cd the mat thj phdn ndi dia vdi sdn pham trung cao cap. DMVN cd the Iam "ddo Idn", phdn chia Igi thi phan cung iing hdng dfit may t h i gidi neu dat dupc tiiuan Ipi frong ddm phdn TPP? Dieu nay hoan todn cd the xay ra. Tuy nhien, bai toan thuong mai dang dupc cac nudc dat Ien ban can de do, dim rdt ky ludng. Cho din thdi diim nay, sau nhieu cupc dam phan, det may vdn la van d i quan frpng dupc dam phan va diim yeu nhdt ciia nganh DMVN, diem "tu huyet" vdn dupc cac bfin mang ra rang budc. Dd Id ITnh vyc det, nhupm de tao vai - rnpt phan khiic nguyfin lieu quan ttpng ttong chuoi sanxuat hang dfit may. Day la ITnh vuc Vifit Nam vdn cdn y i u vd thieu. Hien nay, cac nhdm thuong mgi cong nghiep dfit may da lien tyc tiiuc day My ddy manh quy dinh "chi spi tiep ndi", yfiu cau sdn xudt chi, spi, vai, cdt vd may cac tiianh pham diu phai dien ra ttong khudn kho cac nudc tiiam gia TPP Trong khi do, nguyen lieu san xuat det may ciia V e t Nam chii yeu nhap tir Trung Quoc va mpt so nudc ASEAN.
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Hmh 3. Ca hoi va thdch thut Muon nhin dupc su im dai, hudng lpi tir cae hifip dinh thuong mgi, DMVN phdi dap irng nhiing dieu kien khdng de dang chiit ndo. Cau chiQ'en daii tu, phat trien nganh cdng nghiep phu ttp da dupc ban tmh tir Iau, nhung din nay Itnh vyc d?t, nhupm van chua cd sue hiit doi vdi cac nha ddu tu frong va ngoai nudc. 6 n g Le Trung Hdi cho biet, Nghi qi^et 31 ciia Chinh phii va chuong trinh mdt t^ met vai 6a dupc trien khai tiiuc hien nhieunam qua nhung den nay van chua deit duoc myc tieu nhu mong muon.
Thyc te dau tu phat triin cdng nghiep phy trp cho det may cd nfaimg ehgm va dieu nay Iam chiing ta cd cam giac bi gigt liii.
Tity xudt khau DMVN cd thi dat ngudng 22 ty USD trudc khi ky kit TPP, nhung 22 ty USD nay lai chia cho cac tiii trudng khac nhau, hon niia tong Iupng su dung cac loai ngi^en vgt lifiu dudi 10 ty USD chua phdi Id quy md h ^ din de ddu tu vao khdu san xudt ngigren lieu. Do san xudt nguyen heu cd suat ddu tu ldn, ddi hdi von ldn, trinh dp ky thuat, trinh dp qudn Iy cao hon, rui ro nhieu hon. Mu6n day manh dupc khu vuc san xuatngi^en lieu, nang cao ty IS npi dia hda thi mpt ttong nhimg yeu to tien quyit la phdi tang dupc quy mo xuat khau.
Diiu kifin rang bupc v i xuat xii frong TPP doi vdi san pfaam d$t may, ngi^en tac xuat xii tinh ttr spi la tii hi^^t ldn nhdt cua V ? t Nam. Gid dmh Vinatex thu x i p dupc von doi ddo, cac dy an dupc dau tu vd dua vao v?ui hanh diing k i hogch, mgc nhien Vnatex van ehgm so vdi cac doi tdc nudc ngoai dang cd mat tai V e t Nam. Mat khac, neu tinh dong loat cd pfaia doanh nghiep Vfit Nam lan khoi doanh nghifip nudc ngoai vao nganh nguyen phy lieu se cd su cgnh franh nhat dinh ve lao dpng, qua dd day chi phi nhan cong len cao. Dieu nay '
TRUCJNG DAI HOC DONG THAP Tap chi Khoa hoc sg 24 (02-2017) cd the anh faudng den gja thanh san pham ddu ra,
Thera vao dd, van de tu do nghidp doan frong cam kit TPP - qityen lap fapi ciia ngudi Iao ddng cung la mdt frd ngai ldn. Qityai lap hpi ciia ngudi Iao dpng tiiuc ra da cd d V p t Nam nhung da phan chi d nhung doanh nghiep Nha nudc - cdng doan.
Ngodi ra, cdn cd thdch thuc ve xu hudng dau tu rat nhanh va manh ciia cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai vdi lpi the cd ve tdi chinh, cdng nghe va thj trudng
^ u vupt xa so vdi cac doanh ngfaiep V ? t Nam. Khi npi dung cua H i | p dinh da dan dan sang td, biit ro moc tildi gian cd the thu dircrc lpi ich tu Hiep dinh
tgi V e t Nam tiii Igp tiic cac nfaa dau tu nudc ngoai se dau tu vao V e t Nam. Don cii nfau doi vdi nganh DMVN frong 5 nam ddu tu thfim dupc 1,2 trieu cpc spi thi chi mdt doanh nghiep FDI frong vdng 3 nam ciing cd the dau tu 1 tripu cpc spi va rifing ttong nam 2013, doanfa ngfaidp nay da ddu tu them 500 ngdn cpc spi. Do tiem Iuc ciia doanh nghi?p FDI rat manh so vdi doanh n g h i ^ V p t Nam, hp co the ddu tu nhanh vao dia diem tot, tfaj trudng tot, viec thu lpi ngay tir nhiing ngdy ddu tifin cda Hiep ^ n h sg t ^ trung vdo doanh nghi?p nudc ngoai nfaiiu hon la doanh nghiep V e t Nam [4].
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H m h 4. Chuoi d^t m a y toan can Trong khi Vinatex dang loay hoay thu xep
von khoang 9.722 ty ddng dupc cho la qua Idn vd khong de xoay sd de ddu tu vdo cac dy dn sdn xudt nguyen phy lieu, thi nha may mdi ciia Tap doan Dfit may Texhong d Qudng Ninh'^da di vdo boat dpng. Tgp doan Texhong cho biet: Nha m ^ mdi d phia Bdc Vifit Nam da hoat dpng chinh thirc vao tiiang 7/2013 bo sung 170.000 thoi dfit, 30 m ^ se spi ciing vdi cac nha may hifin hiiu d Trung Quoc va V e t Nam - bo sung 600.000 thoi det, nang tong
miic len 1,77 trieu thoi dpt va 30 may se spi. Nam 2014, dy kiin nang cdng sudt nha may d phia Bdc Vfit Nam Ifin 230.000 thoi dfit. Cimg vdi vi$c md rpng san xuat tgi cac nha may khde d ShangDong - Trung Quoc, Tho NhT Ky vd Urugoay, tong chi phi dau tu du kiin Ien den 1,35 ti NDT. TexHong ky vpng se tan dung Ipi the v i chi phi re cua cac nha may V e t Nam khi Vfit Nam gia nhap TPP.
Tuong tu nhu Texhong, Tap dodn Crystal ciia Hong Kong se dau tu khodng 425 trifiu USD vdo 101
TRUONG DAI HQC DONG THAI Tap chf Khoa hpc so 24 (02-2017 dv an det Pacific Crystal va 120 tri$u USD vao dv
an may Tinh Loi mo rong a mien BSc Vi0t Nam.
(Theo th6ng ke, co den 1 ty USD ciia cac nha det may nuoc ngoai san sang dau tu vao Viet Nam de don dau TPP (Tap doan Hong Kong's TaL Group dau tu 200 UiSu USD; TexHong dau tu 300 trieu USD, Korea's Kyungbang dang ky dau tu moi 40 trieu USD, Tap doan det may Pacific dau tu 180 trieu USD...) [7].
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5. Ket lu^n va gtfi y chinh sach Co hpi tir TPP da nhin thay qua rd nhun^
nganh DMVN vSn khdng the lam dupc gi hon khi ma cac chinfa sacfa tfau faut dau tu vao luih vuc d?t, nhupm van chua du mgnh va cy the de cd the h^p din nha dau tu cd ttong va ngodi nudc. Chuoi sdn xuat dfit may cua V e t Nam van se cdn g£ty khue,
"td fauypt^' det, nhudm v i n sfi la mpt n§i lo dau dm ciia Vpt Nam frong cac cupc dam phan tiiucmg mai,
De tgn dyng co fapi tir TPP, V e t Nam cdn co chinh sdch khuyin khich doanh n g ^ p p dfit may phat trien md rOng va lien kit theo hudng sii dung dupc ngityen lipu npi dia, khdng phdi nhgp khau.
Nganh det may can tgp tnmg vao cac nhdm gidi ph£^: pfaat triin md rpng thi trudng; dinh vi cac cym cdng nghidp det may t ^ trung, san xudt theo hudng chityfin mdn fada, cung c ^ san phdm frpn gdi; tang cudng su lien k i t giira cac nhd sdn xuat, cdc nha cung iing vd tham gia frong chudi gia tri ciia nganh. Phat trien nguon nhan Iyc, phat trien cdng n ^ 6 p hd frp ve xo spi ty nhien; khuyen khich d^u tu nudc ngoai vao pfaat trien xo spi tong hpp, tiiuoc nhupm... nfau mpt chiin lupc phat trien bin viing.
Tity vay, de DMVN phat trien ben viing trudc CO hpi vd tibach thirc tir TPP thi chinfa sach ciia Vi?t Nam cin phai hoan tiii?n: tfae che v i kinh te tiii trudng; cdi each he tiiong pfajqi lugt mdt cdch dong bp, Iinh boat; fao frp cac doanh nghifip nhd vd vira;
he thong an siitii xa hdi va cac chuang trinh muc tieu cp the. Dac bifit doi vdi doanh nghifip det may can chu ttpng xay dung chien luoc, tim hieu thi trudng; nang cao sue canh ttanh va chdt Iupng s^n pham. Can nhgn thuc ro rSng co hdi ludn di cung vdi thach thirc, tuy nhien cd t h i ndi viec tham gia TPP mang Iai cho DMVN nhieu co hpi. Nhimg co hpi rd rang nhat dd la co fapi v i mdt san choi tam CO, vdi cac lugt Ip chat che vira la tiidch thuc nhung la CO hdi de tdi co cdu, hoan tiiien the chi, tang cudng phat trien cdng nghe, thuc day sdn xuat vd xuat khau. Hon niia, cdi dupc nhieu nhdt chmh Id tiing budc xay dyng mdi trudng kmh doaitii ldnh manh, ben viing cho cdc doanh nghiep vdi nhieu CO hpi mdi cho ddt nudc./.
Tai lifiu t h a m khao
[1]. Thanh Binh (2014), "Vet Nam se frd tiianh tt^g tam det may tiie gidi", http://cafebiz.vn/tiii- fruong/viet-nam-se-fro-tiianh-ttimg-tam-det-may-tiie-gioi-20140410170354610I3cal01.chn
102
Hmfa S. Chuoi gi^ tri san xuat Dgc Ifau ciia ngdnh det may thi gidi Id nganh cung img theo chuoi. Ngudi thiet ke sd hihi cac thuong hieu thdi frang tfaudng lua cfapn ca cfaudi cung ung tir san xudt nguyfin lifiu - san xudt sdn pham det may - v^u chityin - phan phoi. N i u cd qity md xudt khau Idn vd nhimg Ipi ich thui quan t6t, qity tdc xudt xir tir Vfit Nam dupc hudng Ipi the fren tiii trudng dfit may thi gidi tin vific thiic day, Iua chpn V e t Nam frd thanh thanfa vifin chinh tiuic frong chudi cung ung se dupc tiin hanh nhanh hon. Doanh n ^ f i p dfit may se khdng chi tham gia vdo khau cuoi cung, khau don gidn nhu trudc day n u a Vdi Ipi ich tir Vfit Nam, cac nha ddu tu, cac chii thuang faieu, nhiing nhd mua hang Idn ttfin tiie gidi se chii dpng tich hpp V e t Nam vao frong chudi cung iing todn cdu. Khi ngaitii DMVN nang dupc qity md, md rpng dupc quan h? vdi cdc nha cung cap tifiu chuan toan cdu vdi cac gia tri cot Idi cao tii chmh cac nhd cung c ^ thi ban tiian nganh DMVN se phat trien ben viing, khdng chi ve sdn xuat, vfi cdng nghfi ma cd v i ttach nfaipm xa hpi vd bdo ve mdi trudng.
TRU<3NG DAI H O C DONG THAP Tap chf Khoa hoc s g 24 (02-2017) [2], Bd Cdng Thuong 2015), Todn vdn bdn t&m tdt Hiip dink TPP, http://www.thesaigontimes.
vn/136639/Tom-tat-Hiep-dmh-Doi-tac-xuyen-Tfaai-Binh-Duong-TPP.htniI.
[3]. My Hgnh (2012), "Det may hudng Ipi tii cdc hipp dinh thuong mgi: Nhieu co hpi, lam thach tiiuc", 5 ^ Gdn Gidi Pkong Online, http://www.sggp.org.vn/kmhte/2012/10/302626/.
[4]. Nguyfin Diic Kien (2014), "Uu tien vaxay dung Ip trinfa pfaat trien cho ngdnh Dpt m ^ " , Th&i trang&Ditmay ViitNam, S6311 (1+2-2014),fr. 18-19.
[5], Hoang Nam (2014), "Ddn ddu TPP, dpt may lo thieu nguyen phy lieu", Doanh Nhdn Sdi Gon Online, http://www.doanfanfaansaigon.vn/online/tin-tuc/kinh-te/2014/04/1080863/
don-dau-tpp-det-may-lo-thieu-nguyen-phu-heu/.
[6]. Minh Ngpc (2014), "Nhin nhan co hpi va tiiach tfaiic ciia V e t Nam frong TPP", Cdng tkdng tin diin tie Chinh phu ViitNam, fattp:/^aodientu.chinhphavn/Gop-y-Hien-ke/Nhm-nhan-co-hoi-va-thach- tiiuc-cua-Vet-Nam-ttong-TPP/I92463.vgp.
[7]. Nguyen. Q (2014), "Dfit may Viet Nam chua sdn sang vdi TPP?", fattp://cafef.vn/kmh-te-vi- mo-dau-tu/det-may-viet-nam-chua-san-sang-voi-tpp-2014030420020331019ca33.chn.
[8]. Tran Hong Quang va Nguyen Quoc Trudng (2014), "TPP - co hdi va tiiach thirc d6i vdi Vpt Nam", Ky yeu Hoi thdo qudc ti: Gia nhdp TPP - cakoi vd thdch thuc doi v&i ViitNam vd ASEAN, Vipn Chien lupc phat trien, Bp Ke hogcfa vd Dau tu. Ha Npi.
,^. [9]. Thu Pfauong (2013), "Ngdnh det may: Chityin tir Iupng sang chat", Bdo Cdng tkuang, Cong tfadng tin difin tii cua Bp Cdng Thuong, http://baocongthuong.com.vn/tiu-truong-frong-nuoc/40577/
nganfa-det-niay-cfauyen-tu-Iuong-sang-chat.fatm#.U6GbDniSSxuA.
[10]. Le Tien Tnrdng (2014), "Hpi nhdp kinh te quoc te - Tan dyng co hpi vd ung pfad thach thuc".
Thai ti-ang & Dit may VietNam. So 311 (1+2-2014), tt. 14-16.
[11]. Trang tfadng tin dien tir dau tu nudc ngodi (2014)," Tfau hut ddu tu nudc ngoai sau 8 nam gia nhgp WTO vd nfaung van di dgt ra", http://fiampi.gov.vn/rinBai/1410/rhu-hut-DTNN-sau-8-nam-gia- nhap-WTO-va nhung-van-de-dat-ra.
[12]. Uy ban tu van ve Chinfa sach tiiuong mai quoc te(2014),"Phan ticfa nfaiing bdt lpi tiem tang cua TPP doi vdi V e t Nam", http://www.tnmgtamwto.vn/tpp/phan-tich-nhung-bat-Ioi-tiem-tang-cua- tpp-doi-voiviet-nam.
JOINING T P P : OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGE FOR VIETNAM TEXTILE Summaty
According to economic experts, Trans-Pacific Sttategic Economic Partnership Agreement) (TPP), wfach can create a great swift in global textile ttade and Vietnam as well, is bringing much e:q)ectation in this large market, especially in the American market. However, TPP in specific and FTA in general do not just make good opportunity fi^r Vetiiam. To make good use of this opportunity for Vietnamese economy, textile branch has to deal with TPP challenges such as decreasing tax, opening service market, meeting work requirements, environments, etc. This article reviews these relevant opportunities and challenges, as well as policies suggested.
Keywords: texttie, TPP, Vietnam, opportunity, challenge.
Ngdy nhdn bdi: 22/12/2015; Ngdy nhqn Iqi: 11/1/2016; Ngdy duyit ddng: 6/8/2016
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