KHOA HOC - CONG NGHE
THONG BAO VA Dif BAO KHI HAU TJNH B A K L A K THANG V I I I - X NAM 2010
Du bdo vien: Nguyen Ngoc Khdi Trung tdm Khi tugng Thdy vdn tinh DakLak I. DIEN BIEN KHi HAU 3 THANG V, VI, VII NAM 2010
1.1. Hien tuong ENSO: Tren khu vuc xich dao Thai Binh Duong (TBD), ENSO da trd vd trang thai trung tinh va ehuydn ddn sang pha lanh, chinh la hien tugng La-Nina. Chuan sai nhiet do mat nude bien (SSTA) trong 3 thang qua tai khu vuc NIN03.4 tu 0 - 0.5°C, chi sd dao ddng nam (SOI) ddu ed gia tri duong tuong ling la 10.0; 1.8; 20.5.
Hinh 1: Chudn sai nhiet dp mat nude Men (SSTA) vd chi so dao dpng nam (SOI)
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1.2. Nhiet do:
NMet do trung binh (Ttb) trong 3 thang V, VI, VII/2010 dat tu 24.9 - 26.6°C, vugt TBNN tu 0.6 - 1.5°C. Nhiet do tdi cao tuyet ddi (Tx) dat tu 34.7 - 37.0°C, thap hon TBNN vdi gia tri chudn sai tu 0.0 - 0.5°C d khu vuc phia ddng va ddng bac, cao hon TBNN tu 0.1 - 0.2°C tai khu vuc phia nam va trung tam.
Nhiet do toi thdp tuyet ddi (Tn) tu 20.0-20.9°C, cao hon TBNN tir 1.1 - 3.5°C.
Bdng 1: Nhiet dp (C) vd chudn sai (CS) 3 thdng V- VII/2010 tgi DakL&k Tram
B.M.Thudt M'Drac Budn Hd EaHTeo Lak
Ttb 26.0 26.6 24.9 25.3 26.6
CS +1.0 +0.6 +1.4 +1.5 +1.3
Tx 37.0 36.7 34.7 35.0 36.8
CS +0.1
-0.3 -0.5 0.0 +0.2
Tn 20.0 20.9 20.0 20 0 20.7
CS +1.1 +2.6 +3.5 +3.4 +1.9 (TBNN tit 1978 - 2006) Hinh 2: Bdn do phdn bd nhiet dp trung hinh vd chuan sai 3 thdng V- VII/2010
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KHOA HQC - CONG NGHE 1.3. Mua:
Do chiu anh hudng bdi hien tugng El-Nino nen miia mua ddn mudn, bdt ddu vao tuan cudi thang 5 va mudn boTi TBNN tir 15 ddn 25 ngay.
Tdng lugng mua trong tinh tu thang V - VII/2010 cd phan bo nhu sau: tren dai bd phan dien tich ed tdng lugng mua dao ddng tu 500 - 700mm, rieng khu vuc EaHleo dat gdn SOOnun, thdp nhdt la khu vuc tix EaKndp ddn KrdngPak chi cd 400 - 450inm. Trong dd, khu vuc phia ddng va phia bac vugt chuan tu 100 - 200mm, va giam ddn ve phia trung tam va phia nam, thdp nhat la phia nam but chudn den 160mm.
Bdng 2: Tdng luang mua (R), s6 ngdy mua (SN) vd chudn sai (CS) (mm) 3 thdng V- VII/2010 Tram
B.M.Thudt M'Drac Budn Hd Ea H'leo Lak Ea Slip Budn Ddn
R 708.7 538.5 532.1 795.1 664.9 681.4 608.7
CS -45.0 +125.6
-61.9 +188.5
-157.8 +46.9 -61.1
SN 65 47 54 44 64 47 52
CS 0 -13
+6 -10 0 +3
0 (TBNN tie 1978- Hinh 3: Bdn do phdn bd lieffng mua vd chudn sai 3 thdng V- VII/2010
2006)
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Sd ngay mua (SN) trong 3 thang V - VII/2010 dat tu 45 - 65 ngay, hut chuan chii yeu d phia ddng va phia bac tir 10 den 15 ngay, cac noi khde xap xi T B N N va cao hon tu 3 - 6 ngay tai Budn Hd va Budn Ddn.
Lugng m u a ngay ldn nhat phd bien trong khoang tu 5 0 den 70mm. Tri sd ldn nhat do duge la 164. 8mm tai Ea H'leo vao ngay 26/7/2010.
1.4. Mot s6 hien t u o n g khi t u o n g thuy van dac b i e t ;
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Trung nude nay va vao Bidn Ddng rang sang 14/7. Bao sd 1 tiep tuc di chuyen chii yeu theo hudng tay tay bdc vdi van tdc 15-20km/h, sue gid vung gan tam manh cap 11 cap 12. Dem 17/7, sau khi di vao dia plian eac tinh Hdi Phdng - Thai Binh, con bao da suy ydu thdnh dp thap nhiet ddi (ATND), tiep tuc di sau vao ddt lien suy yeu va tan ra.
Bao so 2 (CHANTHU): Sang 18/7, mdt ATND da hinh thanh d vung bien phia ddng dao LuZong (Philippin) va di ehuydn ve phia tay va vao Bidn Ddng liic rang sang 19/7, va den chieu tdi thi ddi hudng tay bdc va manh len thanh bao - con bao sd 2. Nd tidp tue di ehuydn theo hudng tdy bac 10 - 15km/h, sue gio vung gdn tam dat cap 11 cdp 12. Tdi 22/7, bao sd 2 do bd vao ddt lidn eac tinh phia ddng nam tinh Quang Tay (Trung Qudc) va nhanh chdng suy yeu thanh ATND. Chidu 24/7, ATND da suy yeu thanh vung ap thdp va di ehuydn dgc theo bidn gidi Viet - Trung.
Mua ldn: 3 thang qua ed 6 dgt mua ldn: thang V cd 1 dgt ngay 25-26; thang VI cd 2 dgt vao ngay 4 - 8va21-22;thangVIIed3dptvaongay3-4,17va25-26.
2. NHAN DINH TINH HINH KHI HAU 3 THANG VIII, IX, X NAM 2010
Kdt qua du bao khi hau cua cac md hinh du bao nhiet do va lugng mua 3 thang VIII - X/2010 cho khu vuc tinh DdkLdk (thue hien vao thang VIII/2010 tai Trung tam Khi tugng Thiiy van DakLak) dugc trinh bay tren eae Hinh 4,5 vd Bang 3,4.
San phdm eiia md hinh du bao dua tren cac ket qua ciia phan mem khi tugng CPT, phuong phap xac sudt ehuydn dich (XSCD) va phuong phap thdng ke tuong quan vdi nhan td du bao la nhiet do mat nude bidn (SST) va chi sd dao ddng nam (SOI).
2.1. Nhiet do:
Kdt qua du bao nhiet do 3 thang VIII - X/2010 cho thay, ndn nhiet phd bidn dao ddng tir 22.5 den 26.0°C, cao nhdt la khu vuc tdy bdc tren 26°C va thap nhat la khu vuc ddng bac khoang 22.5°C.
Bdng 3: Kit qud du bdo cua cdc phuffng phdp vd gid tri chudn sai
Tram B.M.Thudt
M'Drdc Budn Hd
EaH'leo Lak
SST 24.0 24.8 22.5 23.8 24.5
SOI 23.8 24.7 22.5 23.4 24.4
CPT 24.0 24.7 22.5 22.9 24.3
TBNN 23.8 24.6 22.3 23.3 24.3
CS +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 0 +0.1
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Hinh 4: Bdn dd dubdo nhiet dp trung binh vd chudn sai 3 thdng VIII-X/2010
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Nhiet do cd kha nang xap xi va vugt TBNN, cao nhat xuat hien tai Budn Hd va khu vuc tay bac ed gia tri chuan sai +0.2"C, edn tai Ea H'Leo xap xi tmng binh.
2.2. Mua:
Trong 3 thang tdi, tdng lugng mua ed kha nang phd bien trong khoang 650 den 920min. Cao nhat xuat hien d khu vuc trung tdm va phia nam, tiep dd la khu vuc phia ddng vd thdp nhat la vung cue bac ciia tinh.
Kha nang vugt chuan ciia luong mua xdy ra tren toan tinh, chi rieng tai EaH'leo cho ket qua xdp xi TBNN.
Bdng 4 : Ket qud du bdo cua cdc phuffng phdp vd gid tri chudn sai Tram
B.M.Thudt M'Drac Budn Hd EaH'leo Lak EaSiip Ban Ddn
SST 943.1 819.0 804.4 656.0 889.1 800.1 752.4
SOI 920.3 800.5 766.7 649.8 984.1 817.2 755.0
CPT 879.0 788.0 716.0 642.0 857.0 735.0 700.0
TBNN 874.6 759.8 705.6 650.8 881.8 733.8 697.5
CS +39.5 +42.7 +56.8 -1.5 +28.3 +38.3 +50.3 Hinh 5: Bdn do du bdo luong mua vd chudn sai 3 thdng VIII - X/2010
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NIN03.4 SST anomaly plume ECMWF lorecasl Irom 1 Jul 2010
2.3. Tham khao cac mo hinh nude ngoai:
Hien nay, ENSO dang d trang thai trung tinh va trong da sd eae md hinh thdng ke va ddng luc du bao chi ra rang eae didu kien khi quyen vd dai duong ed nhieu kha nang chuyen sang trang thai pha lanh eiia ENSO (hay edn ggi la La-Nina) trong 3 thang tdi.
Hinh 6: Sa dd du bdo SSTA vdng NINO3.4
Cac du bao vd SSTA cua Trung tam Du bao Thdi tiet Han vua chau Au (ECMWF) cho thay, SSTA tai NIN03.4 dao ddng tu gia tri nhd hon -1.5°C trong thang VIII - IX va sau dd nbich len mdt it rdi duy tri d eae thang tiep theo.
Du bao chuan sai nhiet do va lugng mua cua ECMWF va IRI trong 3 thang tdi cho thay: nhiet do ed kha nang vugt
chuan >2°C tren pham vi toan tinh; lugng mua phd bien xap xi va cao hon TBNN mdt it.
Hinh 7: Bdn do du bdo chudn sai nhiet dp vd luffng mua 3 thdng VIII - X/201
2010
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ECMWF Seasonal Forecasi Mean 2m lemperature anomaly
System 3 ASO 2010
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3. KET LUAN
Tdng hgp cac du bao ve dien bien eiia ENSO, dien bien khi hau eiia eae Trung tam du bao ldn tren the gidi va phan tieh eac san pham du bao khi hau ciia Trung tam Khi tugng Thuy van tinh DakLak, ed the dua ra mdt sd nhan dinh sau cho 3 thang tdi:
- Cd nhieu kha nang cac dieu kien khi quyen va dai duong se ehuydn sang trang thai pha lanh cua ENSO trong 3 thang tdi;
- Nhiet do ed kha nang xap xi va vugt chuan xay ra trdn hau hdt dien tich ea tinh vdi chuan sai dao ddng tu 0 den trdn 0.5°C, ed noi trdn.
- Lugng mua cd kha nang vugt den can chudn xay ra trdn da phdn dien tieh ea tinh, vdi chuan sai chu yeu dao ddng tu 50 den 100mm.
