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studies. However, a slight difference which farmers mentioned as influencing adoption is recognition of environmental issues, including climate change and variability. The study showed that highly cited factors promoting farmers’ adoption and diffusion of innovation in the USA were education levels, capital, income, farm size, access to information, positive environmental attitudes, environmental awareness and utilisation of social networks.
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Dalfelt, Berntsen, Holtsmark, Naess, Selrod and Aaheim 1995; Salinger, Sivakumar and Motha 2005; Gwambene 2007; Mongi, Majule and Lyimo 2010).
3.5.1 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability
Coles and Scott (2009), who studied vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and variability in the USA, discovered that drought, floods and frost were the main climatic risks which affected farmers in agricultural production. The study observed that farmers depended more on groundwater use than rain-fed agriculture, while drought was a major concern to livestock/farmers, as they needed rain for pasture growth. In India, Dhaka, Chayal and Poonia (2010) observed that climate change and variability had affected the economy, as it had contributed to a number of climate-related disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, frost, hailstorms, extreme temperature and high winds. These factors caused adverse impacts on water resources, agriculture, food security and biodiversity, heavily reducing agricultural production.
Developing countries will experience the effects of climate change differently, not only because of differences in the projected change of climate parameters, but also because vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities vary greatly between nations and regions (Mertz, Halsnas, Olesen and Rasmussen 2009). In Africa it has been observed by Boko, Niang, Nyong, Vogel, Githeko and Medany (2007) that sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and other stressors and it has the lowest ranking on its adaptive capacity to climate change and variability (Haddad 2005). In southern Africa, Gregory, Ingram and Brklacich (2005) found climate to be among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity, whereas Mertz, Halsnas, Olesen and Rasmussen (2009) found that changes in agricultural strategies in a region in Senegal were not easily identified as adaptation to climate change and variability, but rather attributed to economic and policy drivers. In India key future impacts were identified by the IPCC (2007) and included increased water stress in India, loss of mangroves and other coastal lands in Southeast Asia due to sea level rise, and disturbance of forests and agriculture due to the possibility of more intense El Niño events, as mentioned by Cruz, Harasawa, Lal, Wu, Anokhin, Punsalmaa, Honda, Jafari, Li and Huu (2007).
Yanda and Mubaya (2011) stated that although Africa was least responsible for climate change and variability, it is more vulnerable to the impacts, such as food insecurity, increased
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drought, floods and long dry spells, reduced crop production, increased prevalence of diseases and an increased threat of conflicts arising from the scramble for water resources and scarce fertile land. In Africa, estimates of changes in precipitation and evaporation for 11 major river basins indicate that eight of the systems could experience an overall decrease in runoff (Arnell 1999). These river basins include the Volta in West Africa, the Shabeelle in North-/East Africa, the Ogooue in West/Central Africa, the Rufiji, Ruvuma and Limpopo in East Africa and the Zambezi and Orange in southern Africa (Arnell 1999). Conversely, Obioha (2005) points out that the northern part of Nigeria, which is located away from the sea, has been experiencing continuous climate change and variability, characterised by reduction in rainfall and increase in the rate of dryness and heat, while the north-eastern part of Nigeria, which was mainly a savannah, is increasingly becoming an arid environment at the receding rate of six metres per year. This change is occasioned by the fast depletion of the amount of surface water and flora and fauna resources on the land.
Obioha (2005) researched climate change, population drift and violent conflict over land resources in north-eastern Nigeria and found that climate change and variability affects agricultural activity and that the magnitude of negative effect on animal husbandry is greater than in any other sector. The study observed that climate change and variability is causing conflict between livestock keepers and farmers involved in crop production. The conflict occurs when herdsmen are involved in searching for greener pastures which brings them into contact with sedentary populations who are involved in crop production.
In Tanzania, Mwandosya, Nyenzi and Luhanga’s (1998) predicted a low yield in crops such as maize by 10% after a decade. Lema and Majule (2009) and Gwambene (2007) observed that an increase in climate change and variability has been associated with people adapting to, and coping with, other economic activities to sustain life by local communities in various areas of Tanzania. This means the majority of people who were formerly practising agriculture now have embarked on other economic activities for their livelihood. The study by Lema and Majule (2009) was conducted in the Manyoni district, in the central part of Tanzania which is semi-arid land. The study revealed that the villages studied were seriously affected by frequent food shortages as a result of rainfall uncertainty, exacerbated by climate change and variability. The study further revealed that climate change and variability in the area has caused an increase in rainfall unpredictability, increased pests and diseases and decrease in soil fertility in the Manyoni district. Similar findings were observed in semi-arid
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areas by Lyimo and Kangalawe (2010) in Shinyanga region; Mongi, Majule and Lyimo (2010), in Tabora region in Tanzania and Slegers (2008) in Dodoma region.
Yanda and William (2010) found that, as a result of climate change and variability, rural people in Tanzania engaged in other economic activities such as selling charcoal, establishing restaurants (viosk), utilising non-wood forest products, expanding areas under cultivation to compensate for reduced yields during droughts by reducing fallows, switching to more drought-resistant crops such as sorghum and cassava, brick production and working as casual labour. Lyimo and Kangalawe (2010) observed that climate change and variability has caused an increase in food insecurity as a result of a decline in crop production. The authors state that the rural community’s vulnerability was greatly aggravated by climate change and variability in the area.