5.8 Knowledge on Mitigation and Adaptation held by Farmers
5.8.2 Indigenous Knowledge on Weather Prediction
5.8.2.1 Use of Indigenous Knowledge on Weather Prediction in Chibelela Village
As explained in the previous section 5.8.2, farmers use a number of local indicators to predict not only rainfall onset and quantity, but also for weather forecasting to predict a good or a bad year. Study findings from the FGD and semi-structured interviews conducted in Chibelela village showed that farmers used plant phenology attributes such as the emerging of tree leaves, flowering and plant growth size to predict rainfall onset and identify a good or bad year. When rainfall is about to come, tree species known as the plum fingerleaf tree (Vitex ferruginea), locally identified as Mfuru, blood wood tree/sealing-wax tree (Pterocarpus angolensis), locally known as Mninga, large-leaved dalbergia tree (Dalbergia boehmii), locally known as Mngooli (English name could not be identified), baobab tree (Adansonia digitata), locally known as Mbuyu, Mgole (English name could not be identified) and Acacia tree (Acacia tortilis), locally known as Mkunguu produce leaves and flowers which farmers used as indicators for forecasting the upcoming rainy season.
The outcomes of FGD and interviews revealed that farmers used morphological features of trees locally known as Mgole and Msonankanga (English names could not be identified) to predict weather. The Mgole tree, apart from being used to predict rainfall, was also used to signify a good or bad year. FGD findings indicated that the Mgole tree shows a unique feature signifying the rainfall onset by growing upright in dry seasons. When it bends it predicts imminent rainfall. Similarly, Msonankanga is a seasonal plant which has a unique
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feature used to indicate the change of season. The plant grows tall during rainfall onset and becomes short when there is no rain.
Farmers stated that the Mnyinga tree, also known as the large-leaved Dalbergia (Dalbergia boehmii), was used to predict a good or bad rainfall season. When large-leaved Dalbergia tree partially shed leaves, followed by rainfall, this signifies a good year/season. Conversely, when large-leaved Dalbergia tree completely shed leaves and produces flowers before the rainy season commences, this indicates a bad year/season. Most large-leaved Dalbergia tree species produce and shed flowers partially before imminent rainfall showing a good season with sufficient rainfall. When most large-leaved Dalbergia trees produce and shed all of their flowers and the rain is delayed, it signifies a bad season, with scarce rainfall.
FGDs and semi-structured interviews indicated that bird species were used as local indicators to forecast weather. The four species used by farmers to identify a good or bad season are white-browed coucal (Centropus superciliosus), also known locally as Dudumizi, cattle egret (Bubulcus ibis), locally known as Yangeyange, wire-tailed swallow (Hirundo smithii), locally known as Samamba/Mbayuwayu and birds locally known as Yobwa. The study showed that the appearance of white-browed coucals signified rainfall onset. White-browed coucals, when they produce a certain noise at night in November, the indication is that there will be upcoming rainfall. It is believed that, in most incidences white-browed coucals appeared when rainfall resumed after it had stopped for a while. Frogs (various species) were used as local indicators for weather prediction. The appearance of frogs and the sound they produce signifies the onset of rainfall. Respondents indicated that if frogs delay making this noise, the rainfall is yet to start.
When Yobwa birds appeared moving from west to east during the month of October this signified a good year and if there is to be a bad year, Yobwa birds will delay appearing and pass in November. The appearance of cattle egret birds (Bubulcus ibis), in a village suggested a bad season, characterised by the death of cattle and the outbreak of livestock diseases. The appearance of wire-tailed swallows (Hirundo smithii) in large numbers in the sky signified rainfall onset predicted imminent heavy rainfall. The findings indicated that nowadays the appearance of these birds is becoming increasingly rare.
The interviews and FGDs further identified millipedes (various species), army worms (Spodoptera exempta), termites (Ancistrotermes sp.), butterflies (various species), grass-green
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grasshoppers (Hesperotettix sp.) and insects locally known as Mbilazi as being used for weather prediction. The appearance of millipedes, grass-green grasshoppers and butterflies in great numbers in a season showed that rain is imminent. The appearance of grass-green grasshoppers abundantly signifies imminent rainfall and a good year. Conversely, the appearance of caterpillars in January or February after the rainfall season indicates an upcoming food famine in the village. The study found that although termites (Ancistrotermes sp.) were not used in rainfall prediction, their appearance after the rainfall season in large numbers signifies famine, as they destroy cultivated crops. In addition, it was learned that when Mbilazi insects are green in colour it predicts imminent heavy rainfall and their appearance in red signifies less rainfall in a season.
The study found that in the past farmers used stones to predict rainfall. The findings from both the interview and FGDs indicated that a few elderly farmers possessed knowledge on the special stones used in predicting weather. In the FGDs a farmer explained, “When the rainfall season was near, elders who were believed to be traditional healers took blood from a chicken and placed it on special stones which are round in shape”. “The elders left the special stones for one night and collected them in the morning. If the stones were covered with a significant quantity of water, it signified immense rainfall and if covered with less water this meant low rainfall in the coming season”. It was learned that these days the IK of using special stones in weather forecasting is being practised less.
The findings of the study showed that farmers use wind and dust direction to predict rainfall onset, the amount of rainfall and continuity of rainfall in a season. When there is strong wind and dust in October or November coming from east to west it signifies rainfall and a good year. However, when the wind/dust direction is from west to east, this signifies that there will be less rain that season and is regarded as predicting a bad year. In the focus group, it was stated that it was difficult to predict the amount of rainfall using wind/dust direction. Most farmers could forecast rainfall based on imminent rainfall, but were not able to predict the expected quantity of rainfall. Findings from the focus group were that wind direction is used to show rainfall resuming when it had stopped for a while.
Farmers also use the structure of the moon and stars to predict rainfall. The study ascertained that the structure of the moon is used to predict weather. When farmers observe a halo of light surrounding the moon, they believe the halo signifies that the moon is surrounded by
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water and this predicts rainfall. When the moon is surrounded with clouds it signifies that rain will fall in small quantities, but will last for a long period in the forthcoming days. The consecutive appearance of a semi-circular moon positioned in the north predicts imminent rainfall.
The study found that the position and quantity of stars is used to predict rainfall in a particular season. The villagers use stars to predict the amount of rainfall and the onset of rain. Farmers use a particular type of star, they observe its movements and make inferences on the rainfall patterns for a specific season of the year. The study identified the early emerging of a star known as ‘Nangakavuji’ in mid-November. Its appearance in the west, moving from the east, signifies a good rainfall season. If the star delays appearing within its set time frame, it indicates a bad season, with less rainfall.
The FGD revealed that the appearance of a group of stars known as ‘Nimila’, which move from east to west, when in position in a particular referenced, location signifies the amount of rainfall in a season. Farmers identified the sun’s position in the morning and compared its similar position with Nimila stars to signify that rainfall was expected in mid-December. The Nimila stars’ movement is observed continuously from mid-November to mid-December.
When Nimila stars reach a referenced position in the evening, farmers predict rainfall and a good season. If Nimila stars do not reach the referenced position during mid-December, it indicates a delay in the rainfall season. If Nimila stars pass the identified referenced position when viewed at night in mid-December, it means that the season is going to be a bad one, with scarce rainfall.
The sun is another indicator farmers use to predict weather. Farmers look at the sun’s position to make presumptions about a season. Farmers have identified a specific position where they expect the sun to be prior to the rainfall season. They use a particular reference point such as the position of the sun in a hill or trees to predict a season. Thus, if the sun reaches that position and there is still no rain, it means there will be scarce rainfall. A heavy shower of rainfall is predicted if the sun reaches the referenced position and rainfall commences. Other farmers said that when they observe the position of the sun in the south in November, it signifies the onset of rain.
A summary of indicators in local, common and scientific names and signs used to signify presence of rainfall or rainfall scarcity for Chibelela is presented in tables below and the
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glossary in Appendix 6. Table 5.18 describes knowledge of local indicators based on plant phenology. Table 5.19 shows local indicators based on insects. Moreover, table 5.20 indicates knowledge on local indicators based on the moon, sun, stars, stones and wind. Table 5.21 gives the knowledge of local indicators based on birds.
Table 5.11: Knowledge of Local Indicators Based on Plant Phenology: Chibelela Village Local /Swahili
name
English name Scientific name The sign used to relate to the rain
Mfuru Plum fingerleaf
tree
Vitex ferruginea Flowering and shedding of leaves signify rainfall onset.
Mninga Bloodwood
tree/sealing-wax tree
Pterocarpus angolensis
Flowering and shedding of leaves signify rainfall onset.
Mnyinga Large-leaved dalbergia tree
Dalbergia boehmii When there is partial shedding of leaves and there is rainfall onset, it means a good year, while when there is complete flowering before rain
commences, it indicates a bad year.
Ngooli - - Flowering and shedding of
leaves signifies rainfall onset.
Msonankanga - - A seasonal leafless plant which
grows tall during rainfall onset and becomes short when there is no rain.
Mkunguu Acacia tree Acacia tortilis Flowering and shedding of leaves signify rainfall onset.
Mgole - - Bends during rainfall onset.
Mbuyu Baobab tree Adansonia digitata Flowering and shedding of leaves signify rainfall onset.
Note: A dash (-) sign on the table shows the English and/or scientific name could not be identified (Source: Interview with UDSM Botanist 2013).
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Table 5.19: Knowledge of Local Indicators of Rain Based on Insects and Animals:
Chibelela Village Local /Swahili name
English name Scientific name The sign used to relate to the rain
Vyura Frogs -Anura/Pseudacris
sp.
-Various species
-When frogs start to make a lot of noise it indicates rainfall onset.
-Their continuous noise signifies more rainfall in that season.
Jongoo/Gingwili Millipede Various species Appearance on the earth’s surface during the expected rainfall season indicates the rain is about to fall.
Mchwa Termites Ancistrotermes sp. Their appearance in large numbers after the rainfall season signifies famine.
Senene Grass-green
grasshopper
Hesperotettix sp. Their abundant appearance signifies imminent rainfall and a good year.
Viwavi Army worms Spodoptera
exempta
- Their appearance on trees before the rainfall season (October/November) signifies enough rain in the coming season.
-Their appearance after rainfall season (January) predicts coming food scarcity.
Mapapa
Ukwale/Vipepeo
Butterflies Various species Appearance in bulk moving from west to east shows a good season.
Mbilazi - - Appearance of these insects in
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green predicts imminent heavy rainfall and their appearance in red signifies less rainfall.
Note: A dash (-) sign on the table shows the English and/or scientific name could not be identified (Source: Chang’a and Yanda 2010).
Table 5.12: Knowledge of Local Indicators Based on the Moon, Sun, Temperature, Stars and Wind: Chibelela Village
Local /Swahili name
English name Scientific name The sign used to relate to the rain
Jua Sun - - Positioning of the sun in a
certain identified position prior to the rainfall season means there will be enough rain that season.
- Positioning of the sun in the south in November signifies rainfall onset.
Mwezi Moon - - When overcrowded by clouds it
means the rainfall is imminent and predicts a heavy rainfall.
- When there is a halo around the moon, it means rainfall in small quantities but for a long duration.
- Consecutive appearance of a semi-circled moon positioned in the north predicts upcoming rainfall.
Nangakavuji Star - - Appearance of ‘Nangakavuji’ in
mid-November and moving from east to west shows a good year.
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Nimila - - Appearance of ‘Nimila’ stars in
mid-December, moving from the east to west and positioned in a particular referenced location, signifies quantity of rain in a season and hence a good or bad year.
Upepo Wind - East to west means rainfall onset.
Mawe ya Uganga
Stones - Appearance of special stones in
the morning covered with a significant quantity of water signifies immense rainfall and if stones are covered with small quantity of water low rainfall will occur in the coming season.
(Source: Field Data 2012)
Table 5.13: Knowledge of Local Indicators Based on Birds: Chibelela Village
Local /Swahili name English name Scientific name The sign used to relate to the rain
Dudumizi/Mugulo White-browed Coucal
Centropus superciliosus
- When the bird makes a loud noise during the night in November it indicates imminent rainfall.
-When they appear it means rainfall onset after it has stopped for a while.
Yangeyange Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis The appearance of
Yangayanga birds shows it will be a bad season characterised by death of cattle as a result of diseases.
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Yobwa Bird Name could not
be ascertained
Their movement from west to east during mid-October signifies a good year. Their late appearance signifies a bad year.
Samamba/Mbayuwayu Wire-tailed swallow
Hirundo smithii Appear in groups all over the sky showing imminent rainfall onset. Their appearance also predicts imminent heavy rainfall onset.
(Source: UDSM Zoologist 2013)