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Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 126 Temperature varies by location, topography, season, hour of the day and the other factors. This way also apply for Jakarta city, Topography of Jakarta is relative flat, so its mean temperature variability between location is low. Generally, range of temperature in Jakarta minimum 20oC and maximum 33oC. According the season, temperature during dry season will be feel more hot than temperarure during wet season, and then usually Aedes aegypti more comfort to reproduction in clear water with warm temperature at container. So that the reason why during wet season with specific rainfall and temperature, DHF cases often occure even abundance cases, because at that condition vector of DHF will be reproduction more fast. Normally wet season occure at September until March each year.
The Other climate unsure that have relationship with vector borne disease is precipitation/rainfall. The Indonesian of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency reports that Jakarta has type of rainfall is monsoon, its mean Jakarta has one weak rainfall all year that is August or September. If weak rainfall happen on August or September then peak rainfall happen on one month between December until February. The transition from dry to wet season, usually become onset to DHF cases, because at this moment environment will create more place for reproduction of Aedes aegypti. And with warm temperature also will create fit condition for life cycle Aedes aegypti. Figure.1 shows rainfall map of Jakarta on January, we can see majority area in Jakarta at January have high rainfall 100 – 400 mm.
Figure.1 Jakarta Rainfall Map on January
Climate and health is unity, climate has influence to health sector, also health sector has effect to climate, especially to changing of climate. As said previously, climate has good relationship with vector borne disease, Kuno, etc(1997) said that vector born diseases are powerfully affected by climate condition, for example vector of DHF namely Aedes aegypti that have life cycle stronglly depend on temperature and rainfall circumstances. Clearly, that
Rainfall (mm) January
Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 127 the environment (in this way : temperature and rainfall) has significant role of play for DHF cases. With this the reason, so the study about Environment Assessment Base On Temperature and Rainfall Related DHF Cases In Jakarta important to do.
Research Problems and Goals
The background already detail description why this study important to do. In order to focus for this study, as follow research problems: (1) How all kinds condition of monthly temperature related Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta? (2) How all kinds condition of monthly precipitation related Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta?
To get results base on research problems, so we can also create the goals of research, suit with point in research problem, there are two points the goals of this study are: (1) To know all kinds condition of monthly temperature related Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta, (2) To know all kinds condition of monthly precipitation related Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta?
Theory Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever
Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever or DHF is one of some kinds type dengue that have most important abroviral disease of human. Cause vector this disease is Aedes aegypti mosquito that live in specific climate (temperature), so that why area with tropical climate (majority) and some part area with subtropical climate become endemic for this disease. The Aedes aegypti breeds in urban environments in artificial container that provide clean water from rainfall(Gubler, D.J, 1997). Usually The Aedes aegypti active in morning and afternoon, so warning for human activity that morning and afternoon to extra protect from bitten of Aedes aegypti mosquito.This is one of some prevention technique to self protection.
Figure.2 Life Cycle Process of Aedes Aegypti Mosquito
Dengue is seasonal disease and usually associated with temperature especially during warm conditions, more humid weather. Beside that, dengue also have associated with precipitation, there is evidence that increased precipitation in many locations can affect the vector density and transmission potential. Figure.2 shows the life cycle of Aedes aegypti mosquito, this process have relationship with climate, even depend on specific climate.
Related temperature, life cycle of Aedes aegypti can take time for life cycle depend on temperature and species characteristics, life cycle will take time 14 days at temperature 21 oC and 10 days at 26 – 27 oC.
Climate: Rainfall and Temperature
Climate is typically described by the summary statistics of a set atmospheric and survace variable, climate also can defined as average of weather in long time periods. Climate normals are the official average value of a meteorological element for specific location over 30 year periods. Climate normals are used to compare current conditions and are calculated every 10 years. There are seven climates unsure: temperature, precipitation, air pressure,
Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 128 relative humidity, sun radiation, cloud and wind. Temperature and rainfall often to said as principal climate unsure, because both this climate unsure have direct impact to human activity.
Temperature is degree to know level of hot and cold condition. There are some factors that influence temperature a location, such as elevation (topography), sun radiation, and geographic position. Generally, Indonesia that locate in equator have a warm temperature, only quite different between temperature during wet season and dry season.
But during hot condition or extreme hot, human will feel uncomfort to outdoor activity, its impact if human not have strongly self immune will very easy to bit some disease.
Rain is result of interaction between survace and atmosphere, and with specific conditional water from atmosphere will arrive at earth survace as rainfall. Rainfall is very important factor in human activity, especially for agriculture country like Indonesia. But not only agriculture sector, management of rainfall also very outcome for all sector such as health, tourism, transportation and energy sectors. A good management for rainfall will be guarantee for sustainable development. In context health sectors, rainfall is important rule of plays to interrupt system of health, during rainfall with high intensity and will impact to flood or landslide disaster event, so human population in surrounding area of disaster will have high risk to bit a health problems.
Data and Methodology Data
Data that used for this study are two kinds data observe, the first is climate data and the second is DHF cases. In order to more detail about data, as follow below detail of data : - Temperature data observe for period 1981 – 2010 (Monthly), source of this data is The
Indonesia Meteorology Climatology & Geophysics Agency)
- Dengue cases data that defined as a number of person infected by mosquito virus (Aedes aegypti) per month In Jakarta province, period 1992 - 2010. Source of this data is Indonesia Ministry of Health)
Method
Rainfall & Temperature
Data Observe DHF cases data
Classification Number of DHF Cases : (Ordinal)
• IR < 20 ~ Low Risk(1)
• 20 < IR < 55 ~ MiddIe Risk (2)
• IR > 55 ~ High Risk (3) Create Model : Ordinal
Logistic Regression (OLR)
Calculate P(X = i, i = 1,2,3)
Sourc
) (
) (
2 2 1 1
2 2 1 1
) 1
( X X
X X
e i e X P
Y
Correlation &
Chart Analysis
Probability DHF Cases According RR & T Correlation Matrix
Chart (Pattern)
Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 129 Results and Discussion
Kinds Condition of Temperature Related DHF Cases
Figure.3 shows that range of monthly average temperature in area Jakarta periods 2002 until 2010 are 26.1 – 29.4oC, The highest average temperature happen at November 2006 and then the lowest average temperature occure at February 2008. If we compare pattern between DHF cases pattern and monthly average temperature pattern, there are not any similar pattern, all cases of DHF happen in range of monthly range temperature 26 – 29.5
oC. This is suit with study previously said that Aedes aegypti mosquito can not survive in temperature less than 10oC and greater than 40oC. Generally, life cycle of Aedes aegypti mosquito will able to quite fast reproduction in temperature 20 – 25 oC and 27 – 30oC, and then more fast or optimum in 25-27oC. But especially for Jakarta, Dengue cases happen suitable in temperature range 22.5 – 29.5 oC,and optimum temperature for the peak of dengue cases is 25.5 – 27.5 oC. Base on this analysis of chart, temperature can not show linear relationship with dengue cases, the pattern of pattern also difficult to explain the DHF cases, but temperature significant to important role play in order provide comfort of environment to survive and reproduction for Aedes aegypti mosquito.
Figure.3 Monthly Temperature and Dengue Cases in Jakarta
Cases of DHF almost all year happen in Jakarta, its mean not only climate (temperature) factors that effect to DHF cases, but there are other factor that determine DHF cases beside temperature. The other factors are infrastructure (building, water container etc), culture, public health behavior and off course health programe from government.
Actually for long term programe, education will be choose the first to increase public knowledge about health, climate impact on health and hole aspects that have relationship with DHF cases. Increasing of public knowledge to health will be create public behavior that aware to DHF cases.
Kinds Condition of Rainfall Related DHF Cases
Figure.4 displays two pattern that is monthly rainfall pattern and DHF cases pattern in Jakarta. Range of monthly average area of rainfall in Jakarta periods 2002 until 2010 are 5 – 800 mm, The highest average area of rainfall happen at February 2007 and then the lowest average area of rainfall occure at June-August 2003 and August 2006. In this figure also we can see that there are relationship pattern between rainfall and DHF cases, although not show continue linear relationship but in some range of rainfall there are linear relationship.
Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 130 Figure.4 Monthly Rainfall and Dengue Cases in Jakarta
Generally, Rainfall is trigger for DHF cases happen, provide breeding place for Aedes aegypti mosquito until adult and then fly to bit human. So its mean there are delay time between onset of rainfall with DHF cases happen, some study said that every place have each characteristic of lag time between rainfall and dengue cases, but if we talk about average of lag time between rainfall and dengue cases then 1 - 3 month is average lag time value, especially for Jakarta have lag time 3 month. In this below we can explain about some rainfall condition related DHF cases. The peak of dengue case is February - April every year and suitable with simultant condition of rainfall >200 mm, whereas for peak of rainfall is January – February, there are delay time 1-3 month between peak of rainfall and DHF cases. The logic for delay time between rain fall and dengue cases is because the growing process for Aedes aegypti mosquito need time until adult mosquito and then ready to bit a human. The optimum condition rainfall for dengue cases is 100 – 300 mm, there are more than 50% cases happen in this range.
Combination Condition of Rainfall and Temperature Related DHF Cases
In order to know how the future effect of rainfall and temperature to probability event of DHF cases, the figure.5 shows projection of DHF Classify base on projection of temperature and rainfall use logistic models. As we explain previously, there are three class of DHF cases base incident rate(IR), that is low risk for IR < 20, middle risk for 20 ≤ IR < 55 and high risk for IR ≥ 55. According result of calculate probability of DHF cases, Jakarta in future will fixed in zone high risk of DHF. Red line in chart give us proof that Jakarta have probability 0.75 – 1 for higg risk, its mean Jakarta have trend in future to bit DHF, with conditional withoup govermant programe to face this problem.
Enriching Quality and Providing Affordable Education through New Academia | 131 Figure. 5 Probability of DHF Base on Temperature and Rainfall in Jakarta
Conclusion
According result and discussion, we have some point conclusion for this study, such as : 1. The result of rainfall analysis show that the peak happen of dengue case is February-April
every year, and match with range rainfall >200 mm. Generally, for all province dengue cases occur optimum in rainfall 100 – 300 mm, there are more than 50% cases happen in this range.
2. For temperature that suitable with dengue cases can be said that all of dengue cases happen in temperature range 22.5 – 29.5 oC, and optimum temperature when the peak of dengue cases occur is 25.5 – 27.5 oC.
3. The result simulation of rainfall and temperature changing show that for rainfall changes between 10 – 100 mm then the potential high risk class of dengue cases will smooth increasing just 0.01 - 0.06 point change, except West Java province 0.3 point change.
However need to be aware that rainfall changes in range 100 – 300 mm have more influence to increasing the probability dengue cases occur where its potential will increase from 0.1 to 0.2.
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