68
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α =
0,1 dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
69
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
70
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
43 1671610 1653102,1280 1516862,6120 1391259,2670 1414897,3640 1461135,8030 1433236,0860 1316941,6180 1151013,2040 986762,2174 44 1670090 1659828,4430 1496108,6760 1373433,1580 1393683,6110 1414717,5630 1350396,4270 1205099,1770 1030120,2430 878448,0756 45 1830780 1665832,7410 1480757,7590 1366137,3650 1385495,4890 1385557,7700 1294870,3490 1136838,3380 972362,15910 852061,1212 46 1901880 1688955,0820 1490011,3790 1389579,4300 1412006,5600 1397644,0670 1293120,4570 1140048,4990 1005122,3110 932466,5614 47 1661680 1719004,4390 1513687,0090 1433156,3060 1462571,4610 1440843,5310 1335181,1280 1203375,8480 1113457,0630 1099188,6670 48 1530720 1721455,6150 1513934,9370 1455211,2050 1492024,2140 1466744,8720 1368605,6630 1268431,7540 1230796,1740 1275842,7820 49 1442890 1708658,3170 1501397,7720 1464229,8780 1506983,5230 1480158,8350 1395318,6050 1332246,2460 1347299,2810 1444674,4350 50 1056470 1685700,0660 1480161,1690 1462923,4880 1509100,1600 1481584,9610 1413431,5370 1388641,3520 1451016,3340 1587679,3240 51 1131140 1620103,3400 1413932,4030 1410912,1310 1454257,9270 1422970,7250 1369673,4830 1377502,9520 1474155,9750 1629932,8840 52 1014250 1563643,6530 1356137,6650 1363175,7470 1399442,2000 1363093,3770 1323446,2260 1357699,9860 1475007,3740 1630536,7290 53 1113210 1495646,9980 1285595,6480 1298056,2290 1323011,3580 1280072,5950 1251600,9210 1304146,8180 1427224,0440 1563925,3840 54 1299600 1440521,6380 1228556,1190 1243799,2750 1255727,5450 1206906,7620 1188532,6910 1252479,3890 1368993,9230 1473306,7890 55 1358710 1408138,5980 1197280,4210 1215281,0390 1215566,0130 1164331,1730 1157074,3230 1227916,1450 1329674,3000 1394755,4420 56 1726310 1384410,5760 1178271,8840 1199828,4950 1191057,3930 1141643,0850 1146770,9320 1220875,7960 1302520,4950 1326726,1400 57 1785010 1403234,3510 1208884,9640 1238475,6500 1227169,7390 1187217,1510 1209030,2240 1286679,8760 1348745,2320 1338222,3160 58 1855830 1429863,5040 1253829,2360 1295524,1210 1287854,4610 1263993,4540 1305492,3740 1386656,6570 1431118,6760 1394649,7660 59 1487660 1465171,4070 1313401,0960 1370758,9210 1372271,7320 1369765,9530 1432410,5660 1516559,8940 1546313,6810 1494022,6920 60 1392630 1460356,4060 1333683,9480 1405160,2730 1416045,8070 1434038,9050 1513134,9050 1594632,8140 1608479,8920 1546068,6830 61 1445842,6410 1343614,4360 1426242,5820 1445002,8430 1480311,1160 1569053,5160 1641255,2450 1637658,4900 1569597,5930
62 1438101,5160 1347650,3190 1448577,9180 1476301,4590 1530724,2180 1637022,6170 1708077,9580 1688422,0780 1608470,3720
63 1430360,3920 1351686,2020 1470913,2540 1507600,0750 1581137,3190 1704991,7180 1774900,6710 1739185,6650 1647343,1500
64 1422619,2670 1355722,0850 1493248,5910 1538898,6900 1631550,4210 1772960,8200 1841723,3840 1789949,2520 1686215,9290
71
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
66 1407137,0180 1363793,8510 1537919,2630 1601495,9220 1732376,6250 1908899,0230 1975368,8090 1891476,4270 1763961,4860
67 1399395,8930 1367829,7340 1560254,5990 1632794,5380 1782789,7260 1976868,1240 2042191,5220 1942240,0150 1802834,2650
68 1391654,7690 1371865,6160 1582589,9350 1664093,1540 1833202,8280 2044837,2250 2109014,2350 1993003,6020 1841707,0440
69 1383913,6440 1375901,4990 1604925,2710 1695391,7700 1883615,9300 2112806,3270 2175836,9480 2043767,1890 1880579,8220
70 1376172,5200 1379937,3820 1627260,6080 1726690,3860 1934029,0320 2180775,4280 2242659,6610 2094530,7770 1919452,6010
71 1368431,3950 1383973,2650 1649595,9440 1757989,0020 1984442,1330 2248744,5290 2309482,3730 2145294,3640 1958325,3800
72 1360690,2700 1388009,1480 1671931,2800 1789287,6180 2034855,2350 2316713,6310 2376305,0860 2196057,9510 1997198,1590
72
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,2
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
73
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
74
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1621298,8300 1577296,2640 1570475,6350 1597947,9900 1687209,7820 1813002,9160 1946606,0950 2083193,4610 2224894,1920 49 1442890 1607106,7490 1580410,0320 1596160,8760 1653553,7830 1766871,5030 1900540,4480 2026848,0970 2142578,2990 2246359,4300 50 1056470 1574902,7490 1559834,2450 1589946,8170 1663619,3150 1780636,7300 1898086,4200 1991721,5650 2060570,0410 2101341,1230 51 1131140 1461486,8940 1445955,0450 1475682,9600 1545815,7950 1641948,2390 1717845,2270 1755401,1200 1757023,4290 1719965,6760 52 1014250 1379081,2720 1357193,0840 1378533,2970 1433332,9160 1494850,6220 1518181,6450 1493882,2080 1428978,7900 1323810,6960 53 1113210 1282482,1500 1249087,7910 1255578,5680 1286441,9790 1305734,4660 1274600,9820 1194140,5690 1076808,4730 927787,7870 54 1299600 1221609,4080 1176960,4460 1168464,6720 1174862,6710 1154981,0950 1080161,5340 962808,9779 820688,4631 664137,4582 55 1358710 1211749,0270 1161442,1520 1143919,6740 1132856,2110 1086118,2880 988220,5918 862172,4483 729696,3014 604878,4526 56 1726310 1218621,9420 1168740,2300 1148993,0960 1129141,3460 1070109,2140 970948,5667 863000,4818 769366,7638 704982,9267 57 1785010 1307794,0340 1270401,4840 1261210,8470 1247462,9470 1196442,0340 1121294,3190 1058046,2410 1027734,0520 1042425,3790 58 1855830 1400416,0280 1384054,8270 1394152,9970 1396863,9910 1368105,0860 1332956,8020 1327597,7750 1367332,0330 1457784,5730 59 1487660 1497785,9020 1508012,5090 1542371,3380 1567266,1080 1568372,0190 1579195,5720 1631355,5130 1731334,0940 1875884,1050 60 1392630 1501845,2830 1532730,5540 1584029,3300 1623585,3120 1646880,3640 1691568,3200 1780610,3320 1909913,8870 2066849,3910 61 1483902,4830 1527894,9680 1586865,7640 1631158,2510 1665256,0030 1726587,9200 1826690,9410 1951006,2990 2079256,1300
62 1487802,7390 1551079,4920 1627982,0630 1684922,2520 1734481,7150 1821395,1830 1950367,6160 2095555,4900 2226506,7470
63 1491702,9950 1574264,0170 1669098,3630 1738686,2530 1803707,4270 1916202,4470 2074044,2910 2240104,6800 2373757,3650
64 1495603,2510 1597448,5420 1710214,6630 1792450,2540 1872933,1390 2011009,7110 2197720,9660 2384653,8700 2521007,9820
65 1499503,5070 1620633,0660 1751330,9630 1846214,2550 1942158,8510 2105816,9750 2321397,6410 2529203,0600 2668258,5990
66 1503403,7630 1643817,5910 1792447,2630 1899978,2560 2011384,5630 2200624,2380 2445074,3160 2673752,2500 2815509,2160
67 1507304,0200 1667002,1160 1833563,5630 1953742,2570 2080610,2750 2295431,5020 2568750,9910 2818301,4400 2962759,8330
68 1511204,2760 1690186,6400 1874679,8620 2007506,2580 2149835,9870 2390238,7660 2692427,6670 2962850,6300 3110010,4500
69 1515104,5320 1713371,1650 1915796,1620 2061270,2590 2219061,6990 2485046,0290 2816104,3420 3107399,8200 3257261,0670
75
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1522905,0440 1759740,2140 1998028,7620 2168798,2610 2357513,1230 2674660,5570 3063457,6920 3396498,2000 3551762,3020
72 1526805,3000 1782924,7390 2039145,0620 2222562,2620 2426738,8350 2769467,8210 3187134,3670 3541047,3900 3699012,9190
76
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,3
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
77
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
78
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1683312,8320 1703428,1860 1775704,4290 1888474,7050 2013353,9500 2127104,7960 2211833,0140 2253338,9010 2247906,4750 49 1442890 1646452,1310 1678606,5640 1757940,9050 1861448,2300 1955480,1440 2017750,9560 2034784,6160 2001528,9430 1925624,9050 50 1056470 1588193,7760 1620739,4350 1690802,8560 1765953,7090 1811730,9580 1811379,2950 1760203,8680 1664839,6260 1543340,3820 51 1131140 1415535,2150 1430450,2790 1470790,2650 1498043,5000 1481891,3840 1415109,4600 1304287,2330 1167222,3940 1028360,2120 52 1014250 1308543,3650 1301690,2520 1308613,9280 1288878,9330 1220791,9740 1109007,0720 971185,6689 832631,5567 718025,6363 53 1113210 1189753,2700 1159244,8190 1133530,7380 1074441,2650 971974,0917 842612,1280 711991,0837 606939,3972 545705,0113 54 1299600 1133991,9050 1086458,9260 1038831,6390 958675,1450 848674,9601 734531,2840 644498,8465 600147,8302 607994,9208 55 1358710 1155844,1920 1104214,2660 1051928,4220 974466,8438 885921,3239 816504,0620 790742,5227 819179,2541 894248,2288 56 1726310 1194959,7670 1149645,7480 1106439,5120 1049363,2120 1000645,0800 989215,0755 1030119,2660 1119721,6300 1237763,2230 57 1785010 1348561,1770 1326327,6400 1310665,6190 1293304,2840 1300081,4470 1353069,8710 1454163,0410 1585962,5020 1720411,3480 58 1855830 1486785,6290 1495135,9060 1513924,8880 1540677,7200 1600036,1870 1703127,4520 1838081,5440 1977712,5120 2093316,6720 59 1487660 1615860,0760 1656189,3380 1708223,8370 1772903,3990 1869619,5770 1996900,2160 2131797,6730 2243931,7160 2311474,9970 60 1392630 1591915,1870 1648363,9800 1713931,3550 1790781,1670 1890583,0140 2000426,9130 2091679,0510 2138328,9470 2131304,7760 61 1540666,2080 1599033,1910 1660500,4960 1727008,4640 1802055,4670 1864983,1560 1888286,7150 1856930,2610 1777234,4310
62 1549202,7860 1626422,5960 1703460,0440 1782681,1110 1862913,8240 1911878,4730 1894609,0950 1799241,2600 1644766,5190
63 1557739,3640 1653812,0010 1746419,5920 1838353,7580 1923772,1820 1958773,7900 1900931,4740 1741552,2590 1512298,6070
64 1566275,9420 1681201,4050 1789379,1390 1894026,4060 1984630,5390 2005669,1070 1907253,8540 1683863,2570 1379830,6960
65 1574812,5200 1708590,8100 1832338,6870 1949699,0530 2045488,8970 2052564,4240 1913576,2340 1626174,2560 1247362,7840
66 1583349,0980 1735980,2150 1875298,2350 2005371,7000 2106347,2540 2099459,7410 1919898,6130 1568485,2540 1114894,8720
67 1591885,6760 1763369,6200 1918257,7830 2061044,3470 2167205,6120 2146355,0590 1926220,9930 1510796,2530 982426,9600
68 1600422,2540 1790759,0240 1961217,3300 2116716,9940 2228063,9690 2193250,3760 1932543,3720 1453107,2520 849959,0482
69 1608958,8320 1818148,4290 2004176,8780 2172389,6420 2288922,3270 2240145,6930 1938865,7520 1395418,2500 717491,1363
79
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1626031,9870 1872927,2390 2090095,9730 2283734,9360 2410639,0420 2333936,3270 1951510,5110 1280040,2480 452555,3126
72 1634568,5650 1900316,6430 2133055,5210 2339407,5830 2471497,3990 2380831,6440 1957832,8900 1222351,2460 320087,4008
80
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,4
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
81
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
82
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1741583,7720 1796935,8730 1886505,5210 1978223,1650 2043623,6860 2067739,1860 2049837,6880 2000205,8390 1933171,2760 49 1442890 1667663,8930 1717662,2030 1786109,7010 1836888,0990 1846833,2010 1811580,6640 1741646,4620 1654845,9600 1567872,4800 50 1056470 1579189,0090 1612984,2240 1649553,8440 1653915,3640 1612838,2700 1534267,7910 1437947,9170 1344672,1260 1268567,5100 51 1131140 1350627,3190 1351088,2990 1341882,2690 1293972,4640 1206599,6580 1098640,5980 994346,9737 911775,1453 858061,4238 52 1014250 1234578,8120 1206222,880 1161858,2510 1081821,5300 977632,5585 874932,1382 796356,4549 752101,7102 739934,0598 53 1113210 1109380,5560 1057189,7990 989374,8507 896963,5253 800819,7874 727387,3493 691816,3362 693429,1019 721055,3798 54 1299600 1073998,7790 1011835,5660 940329,0283 860232,1581 796794,1672 771041,9121 786666,4909 832139,4243 890487,8351 55 1358710 1136349,7620 1082200,1810 1028570,0510 983048,1925 969495,9617 998644,5909 1061753,9660 1139509,0020 1213983,6880 56 1726310 1206298,7620 1170183,7350 1144775,4590 1140487,7020 1174603,8460 1245265,8960 1333598,1410 1417719,0680 1483826,6720 57 1785010 1416108,6110 1414503,9690 1431322,8490 1475722,9760 1555049,8070 1655729,2650 1753703,9660 1830434,2060 1880066,4600 58 1855830 1580230,5760 1614216,5920 1669173,7410 1749830,0640 1852789,4230 1956514,6620 2038013,1510 2087007,5430 2107070,0080 59 1487660 1718055,7320 1781701,2380 1862611,0270 1959582,3060 2060369,3070 2141149,5820 2185915,3790 2195302,7310 2181153,7330 60 1392630 1644266,9960 1711400,7270 1786411,2750 1862658,0830 1923107,3770 1947825,0340 1931877,2100 1886566,1700 1828678,2250 61 1551916,2750 1605706,7620 1655425,6710 1691287,0560 1696642,7430 1660571,4970 1590453,0900 1505252,6590 1422203,5600
62 1560220,3520 1627521,0880 1681952,5780 1707927,2610 1682369,0600 1595395,9740 1464727,8540 1321513,6160 1190148,1800
63 1568524,4290 1649335,4140 1708479,4840 1724567,4670 1668095,3770 1530220,4500 1339002,6180 1137774,5730 958092,8060
64 1576828,5070 1671149,7400 1735006,3900 1741207,6730 1653821,6940 1465044,9270 1213277,3810 954035,5305 726037,4300
65 1585132,5840 1692964,0660 1761533,2960 1757847,8790 1639548,0110 1399869,4040 1087552,1450 770296,4876 493982,0540
66 1593436,6610 1714778,3910 1788060,2030 1774488,0850 1625274,3280 1334693,8800 961826,9088 586557,4447 261926,6780
67 1601740,7380 1736592,7170 1814587,1090 1791128,2900 1611000,6450 1269518,3570 836101,6726 402818,4018 29871,3017
68 1610044,8160 1758407,0430 1841114,0150 1807768,4960 1596726,9620 1204342,8340 710376,4363 219079,3589 -202184,0700
69 1618348,8930 1780221,3690 1867640,9210 1824408,7020 1582453,2780 1139167,3110 584651,2001 35340,3160 -434239,4500
83
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1634957,0470 1823850,0210 1920694,7340 1857689,1140 1553905,9120 1008816,2640 333200,7276 -332137,7700 -898350,2000
72 1643261,1250 1845664,3470 1947221,640 1874329,3200 1539632,2290 943640,7406 207475,4914 -515876,8130 -1130405,600
84
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,5
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
85
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
86
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1768430,5430 1826781,1130 1893589,5600 1937957,4380 1945445,1060 1919030,1950 1871403,5300 1816629,0420 1765359,5510 49 1442890 1658315,9050 1696936,1170 1728490,3240 1726710,7840 1687975,9020 1625056,8950 1555288,5110 1492104,8900 1442323,5860 50 1056470 1548572,2910 1562694,0080 1559185,6570 1520408,3000 1454054,8240 1379505,1760 1313976,5230 1266241,8580 1237145,4900 51 1131140 1275885,3700 1251740,5520 1205915,9760 1131259,3980 1044488,0790 966608,7639 909983,2454 876191,5987 860042,4716 52 1014250 1169639,6400 1121538,7690 1055399,7380 973996,0673 898702,6872 846854,9287 822726,4709 820480,8296 830819,8501 53 1113210 1050302,2940 987264,0009 915524,1590 844970,1886 796251,8192 778751,5325 787686,3189 811688,1132 840307,1068 54 1299600 1043259,0060 982201,2166 924719,2455 883585,2115 873745,9304 894517,3746 933579,5312 977380,5097 1017337,0370 55 1358710 1145749,4110 1104604,7030 1078743,9020 1079290,6810 1112151,5030 1167120,0830 1227828,3010 1282309,5040 1326065,3360 56 1726310 1237197,6440 1220771,9760 1227306,1450 1262582,2790 1322548,9140 1390453,4130 1450316,2810 1494889,2000 1524674,5840 57 1785010 1491177,3780 1513209,4140 1560237,8450 1630773,6230 1712487,8910 1786677,0540 1841958,0730 1877547,3680 1898515,1450 58 1855830 1662208,8760 1715958,1920 1789769,5180 1875066,5700 1954937,9070 2013638,7580 2047197,1430 2061211,5050 2063708,1110 59 1487660 1792815,6810 1866729,7620 1949854,4270 2028775,7290 2086795,9380 2115186,9830 2118248,1780 2106300,9710 2088169,4430 60 1392630 1658776,3000 1720123,5710 1776482,7170 1813322,1630 1818855,9690 1793618,0000 1748982,8330 1697304,3160 1646085,8600 61 1530934,2940 1566556,1180 1584703,9550 1573941,9480 1530814,4920 1465022,1090 1392111,6690 1323421,2620 1263473,9320
62 1536165,4380 1576735,4510 1584851,5510 1544907,8140 1455886,0000 1336920,2180 1213416,9220 1101875,3660 1007589,9330
63 1541396,5820 1586914,7830 1584999,1470 1515873,6800 1380957,5080 1208818,3270 1034722,1750 880329,4701 751705,9346
64 1546627,7260 1597094,1160 1585146,7430 1486839,5460 1306029,0160 1080716,4360 856027,4272 658783,5742 495821,9361
65 1551858,8700 1607273,4490 1585294,3400 1457805,4120 1231100,5240 952614,5444 677332,6798 437237,6782 239937,9375
66 1557090,0140 1617452,7810 1585441,9360 1428771,2780 1156172,0310 824512,6533 498637,9325 215691,7822 -15946,0610
67 1562321,1580 1627632,1140 1585589,5320 1399737,1430 1081243,5390 696410,7622 319943,1851 -5854,1137 -271830,0600
68 1567552,3020 1637811,4470 1585737,1280 1370703,0090 1006315,0470 568308,8710 141248,4377 -227400,0100 -527714,0580
69 1572783,4460 1647990,7790 1585884,7250 1341668,8750 931386,5547 440206,9799 -37446,3096 -448945,9060 -783598,0570
87
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1583245,7350 1668349,4450 1586179,9170 1283600,6070 781529,5704 184003,1976 -394835,8040 -892037,6980 -1295366,050
72 1588476,8790 1678528,7770 1586327,5130 1254566,4730 706601,0782 55901,3065 -573530,5520 -1113583,590 -1551250,050
88
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,6
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
89
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
90
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1768676,1850 1815128,1090 1853568,0600 1863549,2080 1844186,4780 1806462,9810 1763122,9510 1723096,0330 1690354,9900 49 1442890 1631460,8630 1651551,8820 1653559,0520 1625439,3880 1575445,1660 1518796,2220 1467253,3250 1425967,7120 1394833,7550 50 1056470 1512562,4820 1508383,9650 1482937,0190 1433685,6070 1375484,0910 1323705,2790 1285974,8780 1262541,0820 1249877,6330 51 1131140 1205785,5810 1165035,1230 1106072,1420 1034600,3490 967943,4340 917612,2010 885219,4506 866404,3108 855603,0626 52 1014250 1123398,0860 1068430,1710 1004640,4060 942937,7617 898688,1409 876846,9775 873005,9103 879824,7330 891485,1805 53 1113210 1013760,2020 953152,5699 895663,4386 853253,6641 835520,5814 839871,9762 857309,0119 879583,0300 901997,0302 54 1299600 1035248,0370 985624,4210 950607,0326 939145,54570 952936,3832 982859,6643 1017884,6670 1051003,2940 1079632,7740 55 1358710 1171538,2880 1148124,2310 1147237,2040 1171845,3670 1215735,7890 1265915,2600 1312269,3690 1350731,8190 1381303,3730 56 1726310 1272750,6920 1273860,4470 1299420,3760 1345238,8080 1399213,8150 1448009,6050 1484994,3150 1509918,7560 1525237,1920 57 1785010 1561009,2120 1599008,8800 1657693,7770 1726613,2700 1791293,8800 1841595,4850 1875996,8810 1898021,3280 1911950,0350 58 1855830 1724972,6670 1786608,3880 1859140,0580 1928398,2700 1981460,7430 2013879,0630 2029403,4170 2034236,9190 2033307,5540 59 1487660 1840901,4890 1912446,7840 1981614,7600 2034187,8850 2062330,2650 2068386,8310 2060357,1970 2045579,8350 2028504,6820 60 1392630 1645176,5280 1690905,7290 1720790,7840 1724435,0390 1701374,9940 1660226,2790 1611303,8860 1561413,4800 1513625,4050 61 1494715,7530 1509478,2190 1500374,2520 1463882,6910 1407351,3880 1343609,3980 1282821,5290 1229712,8680 1185318,1760
62 1495782,8940 1507016,1460 1476854,1910 1402413,3670 1298574,7780 1187550,2840 1085543,5040 999282,3438 929608,1890
63 1496850,0350 1504554,0740 1453334,1300 1340944,0420 1189798,1680 1031491,1710 888265,4796 768851,8196 673898,2025
64 1497917,1760 1502092,0020 1429814,0680 1279474,7170 1081021,5580 875432,0569 690987,4546 538421,2955 418188,2160
65 1498984,3170 1499629,9290 1406294,0070 1218005,3930 972244,9477 719372,9432 493709,4297 307990,7713 162478,2295
66 1500051,4580 1497167,8570 1382773,9460 1156536,0680 863468,3377 563313,8295 296431,4048 77560,2472 -93231,7570
67 1501118,5990 1494705,7840 1359253,8840 1095066,7440 754691,7278 407254,7158 99153,3799 -152870,2770 -348941,7430
68 1502185,7410 1492243,7120 1335733,8230 1033597,4190 645915,1178 251195,6021 -98124,6450 -383300,8010 -604651,7300
69 1503252,8820 1489781,6390 1312213,7620 972128,0948 537138,5078 95136,4884 -295402,6700 -613731,3250 -860361,7170
91
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1505387,1640 1484857,4940 1265173,6390 849189,4457 319585,2878 -216981,7390 -689958,7200 -1074592,370 -1371781,690
72 1506454,3050 1482395,4220 1241653,5780 787720,1212 210808,6778 -373040,8530 -887236,7450 -1305022,900 -1627491,680
92
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,7
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
93
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,7
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
94
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,7
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1752930,7470 1784760,7870 1801665,6690 1793185,5430 1765124,0460 1728583,0880 1692106,9140 1659570,5120 1631254,2110 49 1442890 1599505,8210 1604179,6960 1589344,7180 1552707,0030 1505576,9190 1459501,4030 1420423,2290 1389246,6210 1364443,6990 50 1056470 1481034,2360 1465943,8110 1433411,9420 1388333,6800 1344291,3590 1310319,1080 1288445,8410 1276708,7460 1272340,7150 51 1131140 1145279,2640 1096652,7120 1036980,3010 975605,8525 924674,2154 888453,7943 864690,4627 849119,6858 838217,2695 52 1014250 1095832,0240 1042962,6030 990093,3459 947606,0656 923321,0969 916091,4066 920393,1225 931043,3436 944790,5560 53 1113210 993464,1099 941012,8056 899277,1566 876043,4312 872917,2775 883786,2995 901270,7904 920393,1686 938698,9917 54 1299600 1040407,9480 1003807,4740 986230,1969 990253,2801 1011170,5850 1039724,7220 1068656,3030 1094447,5420 1116085,4580 55 1358710 1203107,5430 1194529,8280 1208596,7680 1241606,3160 1284069,8720 1326126,8650 1362507,3690 1392022,2300 1415388,5590 56 1726310 1304186,5940 1316108,7580 1348207,5180 1391178,2590 1433440,7030 1467109,4250 1490178,9780 1504016,7880 1510848,9970 57 1785010 1621378,9470 1667330,6110 1726812,2640 1787206,7290 1838076,2060 1875588,4340 1901504,6610 1919419,3540 1932547,5600 58 1855830 1769080,8270 1830262,2810 1893705,2120 1946490,1860 1981983,6850 2001179,1950 2008909,9820 2009860,8860 2007198,4660 59 1487660 1869037,8330 1932295,2630 1985393,3020 2018464,3710 2030576,1390 2027383,7610 2015696,3870 2000310,0490 1983805,6040 60 1392630 1614609,4870 1642937,2210 1650656,7360 1633712,4030 1597414,2260 1550842,1510 1501275,4790 1452641,7710 1406497,0150 61 1456221,4190 1454565,7970 1429529,1510 1384262,7390 1329270,1730 1274909,5650 1227191,9220 1188213,6960 1158047,2190
62 1453218,9910 1441409,4280 1389020,2820 1303570,7580 1204475,0790 1109725,4840 1029160,2000 965793,8599 919304,3330
63 1450216,5640 1428253,0590 1348511,4130 1222878,7770 1079679,9840 944541,4037 831128,4780 743374,0243 680561,4473
64 1447214,1360 1415096,6900 1308002,5430 1142186,7950 954884,8900 779357,3232 633096,7561 520954,1887 441818,5615
65 1444211,7090 1401940,3210 1267493,6740 1061494,8140 830089,7955 614173,2426 435065,0342 298534,3530 203075,6758
66 1441209,2820 1388783,9520 1226984,8040 980802,8323 705294,7011 448989,1621 237033,3124 76114,5174 -35667,2100
67 1438206,8540 1375627,5830 1186475,9350 900110,8509 580499,6066 283805,0815 39001,5905 -146305,3180 -274410,0960
68 1435204,4270 1362471,2140 1145967,0660 819418,8694 455704,5121 118621,0010 -159030,1310 -368725,1540 -513152,9810
69 1432201,9990 1349314,8450 1105458,1960 738726,8880 330909,4176 -46563,0796 -357061,8530 -591144,9900 -751895,8670
95
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,7
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1426197,1450 1323002,1070 1024440,4570 577342,9252 81319,2286 -376931,2410 -753125,2970 -1035984,6600 -1229381,6400
72 1423194,7170 1309845,7380 983931,5880 496650,9438 -43475,8658 -542115,3210 -951157,0190 -1258404,5000 -1468124,5200
96
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,8
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,8
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
97
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,8
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,8
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
98
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,8
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,8
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1728850,5850 1747791,6980 1750239,9230 1732230,1970 1701344,7620 1666301,6580 1632194,1290 1600590,9250 1571231,3580 49 1442890 1569390,0360 1563749,1570 1541051,2650 1503886,3710 1462682,1880 1425255,2430 1394553,8580 1370541,4990 1352305,1280 50 1056470 1457113,9240 1437339,1840 1405390,8300 1368434,7670 1336768,7980 1315246,6430 1303830,0430 1300570,6540 1303476,9900 51 1131140 1093471,1870 1041982,1200 985381,7436 932379,7211 890330,6009 859896,1344 838027,6561 821216,0666 806730,3295 52 1014250 1083492,1450 1036911,9680 996097,9079 968508,0011 957102,7211 958759,0882 968746,0913 983432,4665 1000691,9600 53 1113210 982444,9649 938760,0225 909085,6429 896859,0967 899804,0567 911655,3166 926859,9672 942086,9679 955734,0750 54 1299600 1051864,7320 1026209,6300 1019841,0360 1030929,6050 1052874,7010 1078148,8100 1102006,7610 1122504,6090 1139293,1640 55 1358710 1234679,5070 1236554,0110 1258246,2660 1292830,2330 1331290,9500 1366856,0800 1396800,3330 1421041,1870 1440537,9040 56 1726310 1328452,9010 1345455,8450 1377326,6080 1413579,8840 1445229,8190 1467975,4160 1481716,4610 1488144,5430 1489158,7610 57 1785010 1673116,1480 1722252,8770 1778978,6900 1831883,4510 1874529,6660 1906279,8830 1929752,0690 1948071,1070 1963711,8250 58 1855830 1797960,3050 1854613,4230 1907716,6210 1947504,6600 1971541,7690 1982691,2330 1985263,6320 1982657,3110 1976917,1240 59 1487660 1884214,7120 1937936,1840 1977667,4180 1997949,0110 2001315,4820 1993736,1110 1980539,1110 1965061,0730 1949031,4540 60 1392630 1575205,2170 1588020,5470 1579519,7970 1550209,3970 1507272,0320 1458492,5530 1409045,9040 1361469,1390 1316730,8730 61 1422773,3000 1410750,9320 1379012,7220 1334212,0680 1286582,5290 1243805,8160 1209530,3570 1184669,7030 1168894,1280
62 1416401,5570 1389793,7550 1328017,4840 1244278,2560 1157606,6520 1081809,1220 1023147,5330 982941,5784 960338,0820
63 1410029,8140 1368836,5780 1277022,2460 1154344,4440 1028630,7740 919812,4273 836764,7084 781213,4537 751782,0357
64 1403658,0710 1347879,4000 1226027,0090 1064410,6320 899654,8970 757815,7328 650381,8842 579485,3290 543225,9894
65 1397286,3280 1326922,2230 1175031,7710 974476,8201 770679,0196 595819,0384 463999,0601 377757,2043 334669,9430
66 1390914,5850 1305965,0460 1124036,5330 884543,0082 641703,1423 433822,3439 277616,2359 176029,0796 126113,8967
67 1384542,8420 1285007,8690 1073041,2960 794609,1963 512727,2650 271825,6495 91233,41175 -25699,0451 -82442,1496
68 1378171,0990 1264050,6910 1022046,0580 704675,3844 383751,3876 109828,9550 -95149,4124 -227427,1700 -290998,1960
69 1371799,3560 1243093,5140 971050,8202 614741,5726 254775,5103 -52167,7395 -281532,2370 -429155,2940 -499554,2420
99
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,8
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
71 1359055,8700 1201179,1600 869060,3448 434873,9488 -3176,2444 -376161,1280 -654297,8850 -832611,5440 -916666,3350
72 1352684,1280 1180221,9820 818065,1071 344940,1369 -132152,1220 -538157,8230 -840680,7090 -1034339,670 -1125222,380
100
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,9
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,9
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
101
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,9
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,9
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
102
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,9
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan
untuk α = 0,9
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1700638,0410 1709079,9380 1701642,7340 1677921,0690 1645219,2730 1610063,9790 1575710,9270 1543039,8890 1511907,4050 49 1442890 1544275,1570 1532719,7770 1507540,9620 1473325,1170 1438792,2770 1409371,6290 1386801,3800 1370986,6940 1361365,5680 50 1056470 1440467,2050 1419867,4010 1391628,0250 1362861,8790 1340946,5530 1328355,3140 1324199,2560 1326504,7550 1333299,1740 51 1131140 1047748,6610 995392,6311 941766,0643 893736,4791 855369,5316 825657,6131 801491,6123 779853,5374 758482,9037 52 1014250 1083185,0270 1044582,6810 1015113,8310 999492,2066 998111,5403 1007551,3320 1024102,3320 1045317,6690 1070056,5250 53 1113210 975323,5115 938840,8030 917014,3732 910179,5850 914447,0480 924156,9846 934955,4349 944294,3604 950809,6018 54 1299600 1066011,1440 1048717,0710 1049241,2470 1063403,2720 1084587,9270 1106970,1780 1127405,1210 1144875,2900 1159493,2320 55 1358710 1263853,9040 1272614,6250 1297811,7970 1331507,4630 1366108,4480 1397022,6010 1422883,8630 1444086,1740 1461599,0770 56 1726310 1345374,2290 1363700,5480 1392310,3670 1421309,7950 1444130,1980 1458538,0390 1465201,2040 1465735,4170 1461668,5090 57 1785010 1718650,4810 1768918,8410 1822780,1250 1870930,1020 1909753,2840 1940126,4420 1964771,4790 1986354,0410 2006875,0600 58 1855830 1814780,4630 1865167,0790 1908459,1670 1937790,8960 1953011,1150 1957352,4030 1954308,7750 1946278,1940 1934515,0160 59 1487660 1891825,9190 1936849,2290 1966555,1960 1978709,0530 1977343,3960 1967990,9020 1954958,8760 1940885,9100 1927282,1490 60 1392630 1531802,5320 1531810,3830 1511710,0960 1474670,2100 1428066,0960 1378323,0650 1329272,5940 1282671,0260 1239111,9210 61 1397747,6660 1380727,0290 1348546,9600 1309204,8500 1271665,1230 1241555,0260 1221092,1320 1210492,9990 1209117,5420
62 1388948,0780 1354906,0200 1292555,9110 1217575,6790 1147156,6360 1091910,7460 1055890,0040 1039351,8950 1040956,8930
63 1380148,4900 1329085,0110 1236564,8610 1125946,5070 1022648,1490 942266,4651 890687,8763 868210,7918 872796,2428
64 1371348,9020 1303264,0020 1180573,8120 1034317,3360 898139,6625 792622,1847 725485,7486 697069,6882 704635,5930
65 1362549,3150 1277442,9920 1124582,7620 942688,1650 773631,1757 642977,9043 560283,6209 525928,5846 536474,9432
66 1353749,7270 1251621,9830 1068591,7130 851058,9939 649122,6889 493333,6238 395081,4931 354787,4810 368314,2934
67 1344950,1390 1225800,9740 1012600,6630 759429,8227 524614,2021 343689,3434 229879,3654 183646,3774 200153,6436
68 1336150,5520 1199979,9650 956609,6139 667800,6515 400105,7153 194045,0629 64677,2377 12505,2737 31992,9938
69 1327350,9640 1174158,9560 900618,5645 576171,4803 275597,2286 44400,7825 -100524,8900 -158635,8300 -136167,6560
103
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan
α = 0,9
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α =
0,9
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1309751,7890 1122516,9380 788636,4655 392913,1379 26580,2549 -254887,7780 -430929,1450 -500918,0370 -472488,9560
72 1300952,2010 1096695,9280 732645,4161 301283,9668 -97928,2318 -404532,0590 -596131,2730 -672059,1410 -640649,6050
SSE 3.508.030.123.681,
790
3.688.049.285.323
,790
3.063.519.124.930
,400
3.958.146.223.679
,310
4.090.700.459.382,
440 4.255.692.968.219,140
4.466.305.643.821,0
80 4.729.367.226.228,250 5.049.847.978.042,540
MSE 60.483.277.994,51
4
63.587.056.643,51
4
52.819.295.257,42
1
68.243.900.408,26
104
Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,1)(0,3,0)
12Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.4627 0.1653 2.80 0.008
MA 1 0.9171 0.0734 12.49 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 2771632000648 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 61591822237 DF = 45
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 15.8 34.1 45.7 *
DF 10 22 34 *
P-Value 0.106 0.048 0.087 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1334118 847594 1820643
105
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,1)(1,3,0)
12Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3052 0.2329 1.31 0.197
SAR 12 -0.6861 0.1245 -5.51 0.000
MA 1 0.7745 0.1541 5.03 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1964110857598 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 44638883127 DF = 44
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11.0 29.1 36.4 *
DF 9 21 33 *
P-Value 0.276 0.111 0.313 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1322096 907905 1736287
106
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,1) (0,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.2465 0.2743 0.90 0.374
MA 1 0.6775 0.2113 3.21 0.003
SMA 12 0.7169 0.1607 4.46 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1677911672756 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 38134356199 DF = 44
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7.4 27.0 33.7 *
DF 9 21 33 *
P-Value 0.598 0.171 0.434 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1253016 870190 1635842
107
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,1) (1,3,1)
12Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3136 0.2723 1.15 0.256
SAR 12 -0.2353 0.2080 -1.13 0.264
MA 1 0.7143 0.2055 3.48 0.001
SMA 12 0.6918 0.2371 2.92 0.006
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1595297165269 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 37099934076 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8.6 30.7 38.8 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.378 0.059 0.190 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1238785 861187 1616383
108
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,2) (0,3,0)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 -0.3416 1.0479 -0.33 0.746
MA 1 0.1209 1.0164 0.12 0.906
MA 2 0.2957 0.5099 0.58 0.565
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 2856188181601 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 64913367764 DF = 44
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12.9 28.1 38.3 *
DF 9 21 33 *
P-Value 0.168 0.137 0.240 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1333526 834054 1832997
109
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,2) (1,3,0)
12Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.7975 0.1285 6.21 0.000
SAR 12 -0.6105 0.1304 -4.68 0.000
MA 1 1.3341 0.0508 26.26 0.000
MA 2 -0.3887 0.0591 -6.58 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1968101351473 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 45769798871 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9.5 27.7 34.6 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.300 0.118 0.345 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1314323 894918 1733727
110
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,2) (0,3,1)
12Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3732 0.5395 0.69 0.493
MA 1 0.8276 0.5681 1.46 0.152
MA 2 -0.0048 0.3952 -0.01 0.990
SMA 12 0.7421 0.1649 4.50 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1663020806117 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 38674902468 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6.2 23.1 29.1 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.621 0.284 0.614 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1279705 894175 1665235
111
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (1,3,2) (1,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3806 0.5379 0.71 0.483
SAR 12 -0.2442 0.2032 -1.20 0.236
MA 1 0.8023 0.5675 1.41 0.165
MA 2 0.0124 0.3843 0.03 0.974
SMA 12 0.7355 0.2234 3.29 0.002
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1574245348383 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 37482032104 DF = 42
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7.2 25.7 33.1 *
DF 7 19 31 *
P-Value 0.412 0.140 0.367 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1265596 886058 1645134
112
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,1)(0,3,0)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 -0.3296 0.4990 -0.66 0.512
AR 2 -0.2503 0.2298 -1.09 0.282
MA 1 0.1200 0.5146 0.23 0.817
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 2857760265239 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 64949096937 DF = 44
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10.4 22.9 33.8 *
DF 9 21 33 *
P-Value 0.321 0.348 0.428 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1327868 828259 1827476
113
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,1)(1,3,0)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3409 0.2473 1.38 0.175
AR 2 0.1676 0.2017 0.83 0.410
SAR 12 -0.7108 0.1255 -5.66 0.000
MA 1 0.8484 0.1792 4.74 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1919992324264 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 44650984285 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10.6 30.3 36.3 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.227 0.064 0.275 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1287547 873300 1701793
114
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,1)(0,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.2744 0.3216 0.85 0.398
AR 2 0.0385 0.2261 0.17 0.866
MA 1 0.7146 0.2967 2.41 0.020
SMA 12 0.7122 0.1638 4.35 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1674474318669 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 38941263225 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7.4 27.4 33.9 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.498 0.123 0.375 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1245877 859022 1632733
115
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,1)(1,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3807 0.2267 1.68 0.101
AR 2 0.0669 0.1986 0.34 0.738
SAR 12 -0.2407 0.2070 -1.16 0.252
MA 1 0.8352 0.1668 5.01 0.000
SMA 12 0.7283 0.2312 3.15 0.003
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1573035572290 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 37453227912 DF = 42
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7.5 26.5 33.8 *
DF 7 19 31 *
P-Value 0.382 0.116 0.335 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1249286 869894 1628678
116
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,2)(0,3,0)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 -0.3456 1.2071 -0.29 0.776
AR 2 -0.1296 0.3750 -0.35 0.731
MA 1 0.1138 1.2101 0.09 0.926
MA 2 0.1495 0.8102 0.18 0.854
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 2856460974935 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 66429324998 DF = 43
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11.4 25.2 35.6 *
DF 8 20 32 *
P-Value 0.180 0.195 0.304 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1332123 826853 1837393
117
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,2)(1,3,0)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.3420 0.9740 0.35 0.727
AR 2 0.1740 0.4060 0.43 0.670
SAR 12 -0.7084 0.1283 -5.52 0.000
MA 1 0.8494 0.9644 0.88 0.384
MA 2 0.0042 0.7866 0.01 0.996
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1919526150101 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 45703003574 DF = 42
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10.5 30.4 36.4 *
DF 7 19 31 *
P-Value 0.162 0.047 0.230 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1287966 868867 1707064
118
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,2)(0,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.1977 1.8192 0.11 0.914
AR 2 0.1786 0.7933 0.23 0.823
MA 1 0.6598 1.8296 0.36 0.720
MA 2 0.1903 1.5725 0.12 0.904
SMA 12 0.7480 0.1687 4.43 0.000
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1612786624359 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 38399681532 DF = 42
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6.5 25.4 31.0 *
DF 7 19 31 *
P-Value 0.488 0.149 0.469 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1260089 875933 1644245
119
Lanjutan Lampiran 2
ARIMA Model (2,3,2)(1,3,1)
12Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.1218 1.6570 0.07 0.942
AR 2 0.2590 0.7746 0.33 0.740
SAR 12 -0.2660 0.1931 -1.38 0.176
MA 1 0.5455 1.6782 0.33 0.747
MA 2 0.2980 1.4335 0.21 0.836
SMA 12 0.7431 0.2133 3.48 0.001
Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 60, after
differencing 47
Residuals: SS = 1503324301931 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 36666446389 DF = 41
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7.3 28.6 35.0 *
DF 6 18 30 *
P-Value 0.292 0.054 0.244 *
Forecasts from period 60
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
61 1231379 855993 1606765
120
Lampiran 3
Data Differencing II
�
�−1�
�−2�
(2) =
�
�−1− �
�−2�
�−1�
�−2�
(1) =
�
�−1− �
�−20
0
0 1608970 1443910
165060
907020
0
0 1845110 1608970
236140
121
Lampiran 4
Data Differencing III
�
�−2�
�−3�
(3) =
�
�−2− �
�−3�
�−2�
�−3�
(1) =
�
�−2− �
�−30
0
0 1443910 1525230
-81320
0
0
0 1608970 1443910
165060
907020
0
0 1845110 1608970
236140
122
Lampiran 5
Autokorelasi
Lag Autocorrelation Std. Errora Box-Ljung Statistic Value df Sig.b
1 -.069 .129 28.768 1 .000
2 .051 .128 32.090 2 .000
3 -.086 .127 32.546 3 .000
4 .171 .126 34.406 4 .000
5 -.268 .124 39.053 5 .000
6 .241 .123 42.868 6 .000
7 -.121 .122 43.847 7 .000
8 .037 .121 43.940 8 .000
9 -.070 .119 44.287 9 .000
10 .143 .118 45.750 10 .000
11 -.159 .117 47.590 11 .000
12 .096 .116 48.272 12 .000
13 -.025 .114 48.318 13 .000
14 .089 .113 48.932 14 .000
15 -.211 .112 52.500 15 .000
16 .248 .110 57.564 16 .000
17 -.212 .109 61.346 17 .000
18 .153 .108 63.368 18 .000
19 -.112 .106 64.476 19 .000
20 .069 .105 64.906 20 .000
21 -.020 .103 64.942 21 .000
22 -.013 .102 64.959 22 .000
23 .021 .101 65.002 23 .000
24 -.040 .099 65.164 24 .000
25 .116 .098 66.570 25 .000
26 -.171 .096 69.752 26 .000
27 .149 .094 72.228 27 .000
28 -.063 .093 72.683 28 .000
29 -.067 .091 73.217 29 .000
123
Lanjutan Tabel Autokorelasi
Lag Autocorrelation Std. Errora
Box-Ljung Statistic
Value df Sig.b
31 -.080 .088 76.706 31 .000
32 -.059 .086 77.177 32 .000
33 .108 .084 78.822 33 .000
34 -.069 .083 79.514 34 .000
35 .048 .081 79.860 35 .000
36 -.065 .079 80.533 36 .000
37 .073 .077 81.429 37 .000
38 -.061 .075 82.085 38 .000
39 .053 .073 82.604 39 .000
40 -.071 .071 83.610 40 .000
41 .102 .069 85.808 41 .000
42 -.107 .067 88.369 42 .000
43 .098 .065 90.677 43 .000
44 -.071 .062 91.968 44 .000
45 .001 .060 91.968 45 .000
46 .057 .057 92.953 46 .000
47 -.074 .055 94.799 47 .000
48 .090 .052 97.837 48 .000
49 -.100 .049 102.070 49 .000
50 .066 .046 104.166 50 .000
51 -.011 .042 104.239 51 .000
52 -.008 .039 104.279 52 .000
53 .000 .034 104.280 53 .000
54 -.005 .030 104.308 54 .000
55 .025 .024 105.378 55 .000
a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).
124
Lampiran 6
Partial Autokorelasi
Partial Autocorrelations
Series:Produksi_Kernel
Lag Partial
Autocorrelation Std. Error
1 -.069 .132
2 .046 .132
3 -.432 .132
4 -.060 .132
5 -.185 .132
6 -.109 .132
7 -.034 .132
8 -.014 .132
9 -.114 .132
10 -.040 .132
11 -.071 .132
12 -.093 .132
13 -.066 .132
14 .198 .132
15 .061 .132
16 .137 .132
17 -.020 .132
18 .002 .132
19 .006 .132
20 -.143 .132
21 .004 .132
22 -.048 .132
23 .018 .132
24 -.114 .132
25 .139 .132
26 .002 .132
125
Lanjutan Tabel Partial Autokorelasi
Lag Partial
Autocorrelation Std. Error
28 .079 .132
29 -.165 .132
30 .028 .132
31 .121 .132
32 -.016 .132
33 .084 .132
34 -.084 .132
35 .055 .132
36 .025 .132
37 -.087 .132
38 -.059 .132
39 -.064 .132
40 -.029 .132
41 -.043 .132
42 .093 .132
43 .075 .132
44 .060 .132
45 -.017 .132
46 -.028 .132
47 -.069 .132
48 .052 .132
49 -.028 .132
50 .011 .132
51 .027 .132
52 .025 .132
53 .059 .132
54 -.035 .132
