1 www.samuel.co.id
: 6,010.1 : -2.4 -0.04% : 19,562 Mn shrs : 16,252 Bn rupiah Last Close +/- % TLKM 3,450 130 3.9 ASII 5,950 275 4.8 CPIN 6,725 125 1.9 IBST 8,900 1450 19.5 TPIA 9,500 -250 -2.6 BBCA 33,950 -150 -0.4 BYAN 14,800 -1,050 -6.6 HMSP 1,595 -30 -1.8
Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market)
Net Buy (IDR bn) Net Sell (IDR bn)
ASII 307 ICBP 84 BBCA 254 INDF 77 TLKM 116 CTRA 62 SCMA 63 BBNI 41 TOWR 50 ADRO 39 Money Market Last Close +/- % USD/IDR 14,120 25.0 -0.2 JIBOR O/N 5.9 0.0 Dual Listing Securities Last Close +/- % TLKM 24.2 1.1 4.9 EIDO 23.6 0.5 2.1 Global Indices Last Close +/- % DJIA 30,199 338 1.1 S&P 500 3,695 47 1.3 Euro Stoxx 3,522 18 0.5 MSCI World 2,644 24 0.9 STI 2,857 -1 0.0 Nikkei 26,870 183 0.7 Hang Seng 26,207 -182 -0.7 Commodities Last Close +/- % Brent Oil 51 0.5 0.9 Coal (ICE) 85 0.7 0.8 CPO Malay 3,355 -5.0 -0.1 Nickel 17,543 -13.8 -0.1 Tin 19,720 -60.0 -0.3 Market Value Market Activity Tuesday, 15 Dec 2020 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Changes Changes Leading Movers Lagging Movers Changes Changes Changes : 5,938.3 : +4.6 0.08% : 21,947 Mn shrs : 15,829 Bn rupiah Last Close +/- % BBCA 33,675 800 2.4 POLL 5,750 1140 24.7 BRPT 1,230 35 2.9 BRIS 1,785 295 19.8 HMSP 1,555 -115 -6.9 BBRI 4,280 -50 -1.2 ASII 5,675 -150 -2.6 GGRM 41,350 -2925 -6.6 Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market) Net Buy (IDR bn) Net Sell (IDR bn) BBCA 630 BBRI 272 BRIS 50 HMSP 162 ITMG 33 GGRM 122 BMRI 27 ASII 96 ANTM 25 ICBP 74 Money Market Last Close +/- % USD/IDR 14,080 -25.0 0.2 JIBOR O/N 5.9 0.0
Dual Listing Securities
Last Close +/- % TLKM 23.0 -0.1 -0.3 EIDO 23.1 -0.3 -1.1 Global Indices Last Close +/- % DJIA 30,046 47 0.2 S&P 500 3,663 -5 -0.1 Euro Stoxx 3,486 -36 -1.0 MSCI World 2,622 -7 -0.3 STI 2,822 -3 -0.1 Nikkei 26,743 91 0.3 Hang Seng 26,506 95 0.4 Commodities Last Close +/- % Brent Oil 50 0.1 0.2 Coal (ICE) 83 2.6 3.2 Changes Changes Leading Movers Lagging Movers Changes Changes Changes Market Value Market Activity Friday, 11 Dec 2020 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume
DAILY RESEARCH
Summary
IHSG berpotensi terdorong penguatan bursa saham
global
Bursa AS mengalami penguatan pada perdagangan kemarin. Dow naik
+1.13%, S&P500 +1.29% dan Nasdaq terangkat +1.25%. Penguatan didukung
adanya optimisme stimulus AS akan segera dikeluarkan guna mendukung
pemulihan ekonomi di masa pandemi COVID-19 ini. Program stimulus yang
dicanangkan adalah USD 748 miliar untuk belanja pemerintah, termasuk
belanja pengangguran USD 300 per minggu. Di tambah hampir USD 160 miliar
untuk program pembiayaan lunak untuk UMKM. Selain itu sentimen positif
tetap datang dari vaksinasi masal yang mulai dilakukan di AS dari hari senin
menyusul FDA menyetujui pemakaikan darurat vaksin COVID-19 buatan Pfizer.
Terakhir, FDA juga sudah menyetujui penggunaan vaksin buatan Moderna.
Dari pasar komoditas, harga minyak mengalami penguatan semalam.
Brent naik +0.78% dan WTI +1.15%. Kenaikan harga minyak ditopang
optimisme paket stimulus AS akan terealisasi serta vaksinasi mulai
diberlakukan.
IHSG kemarin ditutup flat -0.04% di tengah aksi net buy asing sebesar
IDR 566 miliar di pasar reguler namun tetap berada di atas level 6,000.
Indonesia berhasil mencetak surplus neraca perdagangan untuk 7 bulan
beruturut-turut. Sentimen negatif datang dari rencana pengetatan PSBB di
sejumlah daerah mulai tanggal 18 Desember 2020 hingga 8 Januari. PSBB ketat
termasuk kebijakan WFH 75% dari jumlah karyawan, serta tempat hiburan,
pembelanjaan dan mall Jabotabek wajib tutup setelah jam 19.00 WIB
Sebelumnya masyarakat yang ingin pergi ke Bali juga diwajibkan untuk
melakukan tes swab pcr terlebih dahulu. Hal ini untuk mengantisipasi lonjakan
kasus covid-19 di Indonesia. Kemarin, kasus covid-19 bertambah 6,120 dan
kasus sembuh bertambah 5,699. Dengan demikian kasus aktif mencapai
93,662 dan cased closed mencai 85.1%. Hari ini IHSG diproyeksikan bergerak
menguat terbatas, dengan semakin tingginya harapan investor stimulus AS
akan terlaksana, di tengah pengetatan PSBB di Indonesia akan membebani
pasar. EIDO semalam naik +2.08%.
Sector Poultry :
Emiten Poultry Bisa Kembali Berkokok
ADHI
:
Target kontrak baru 2021
16 December 2020
Highlights
Equity Research│16 December 2020
COMMODITIES
Gold: Gold 100 Oz Futures (USD/Troi oz) Oil: Generic 1st Crude Oil, Brent (USD/Barel)
Coal: Newcastle Coal (USD/MT) CPO: Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT)
Pulp: Generic Bleached Softwood Craft Pulp (CNY/MT) Nickel: London Metal Exchange Nickel Future (USD/MT)
16 -D ec -1 9 1 6 -J an -2 0 1 6 -F eb -2 0 16 -M ar -2 0 1 6 -A p r-2 0 1 6 -M a y-2 0 1 6 -J u n -2 0 16 -J ul -2 0 1 6 -A u g-2 0 1 6 -S ep -2 0 1 6 -O ct-2 0 16 -N ov -2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 6 -D ec -1 9 1 6 -J an -2 0 1 6 -F eb -2 0 1 6 -M ar -2 0 1 6 -A p r-2 0 1 6 -M a y-2 0 1 6 -J u n -2 0 1 6 -J u l-2 0 1 6 -A u g-2 0 16 -S ep -2 0 1 6 -O ct-2 0 1 6 -N o v-2 0 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 16 -D ec -1 9 1 6 -J an -2 0 16 -F eb -2 0 16 -M ar -2 0 16 -Ap r-20 1 6 -M a y-2 0 1 6 -J u n -2 0 1 6 -J u l-2 0 1 6 -A u g-2 0 1 6 -S ep -2 0 1 6 -O ct-2 0 1 6 -N o v-2 0 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 16 -D ec -1 9 1 6 -J an -2 0 16 -F eb -2 0 16 -M ar -2 0 1 6 -A p r-2 0 1 6 -M a y-2 0 16 -J un -2 0 16 -J ul -2 0 1 6 -A u g-2 0 1 6 -S ep -2 0 1 6 -O ct-2 0 1 6 -N o v-2 0 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,000 5,200 1 6 -D ec -1 9 20 -D ec -1 9 2 4 -D ec -1 9 2 8 -D ec -1 9 1-Ja n -2 0 5 -J an -2 0 9 -J an -2 0 1 3 -J an -2 0 1 7 -J an -2 0 2 1 -J an -2 0 2 5 -J an -2 0 2 9 -J an -2 0 2 -F e b -2 0 6 -F e b -2 0 1 0 -F eb -2 0 1 4 -F eb -2 0 18 -F eb -2 0 2 2 -F eb -2 0 2 6 -F eb -2 0 1 -M a r-2 0 5 -M a r-2 0 9 -M a r-2 0 13 -M ar -2 0 1 7 -M ar -2 0 2 1 -M ar -2 0 25 -M ar -2 0 2 9 -M ar -2 0 2 -A p r-2 0 6-Ap r-20 1 0 -A p r-2 0 1 4 -A p r-2 0 1 8 -A p r-2 0 2 2 -A p r-2 0 2 6 -A p r-2 0 3 0 -A p r-2 0 4 -M ay -2 0 8 -M ay -2 0 1 2 -M a y-2 0 1 6 -M a y-2 0 2 0 -M a y-2 0 2 4 -M a y-2 0 2 8 -M a y-2 0 1 -J u n -2 0 5-Ju n-20 9 -J u n -2 0 1 3 -J u n -2 0 17 -J un -2 0 2 1 -J u n -2 0 2 5 -J u n -2 0 29 -J un -2 0 3 -J u l-2 0 7 -J u l-2 0 11 -J ul -2 0 1 5 -J u l-2 0 1 9 -J u l-2 0 23 -J ul -2 0 2 7 -J u l-2 0 3 1 -J u l-2 0 4-Au g-20 8 -A u g-2 0 1 2 -A u g-2 0 16 -Au g-20 2 0 -A u g-2 0 2 4 -A u g-2 0 28 -Au g-20 1 -S e p -2 0 5 -S e p -2 0 9 -S e p -2 0 1 3 -S ep -2 0 1 7 -S ep -2 0 2 1 -S ep -2 0 2 5 -S ep -2 0 2 9 -S ep -2 0 3 -O ct-2 0 7 -O ct-2 0 1 1 -O ct-2 0 1 5 -O ct-2 0 1 9 -O ct-2 0 2 3 -O ct-2 0 2 7 -O ct-2 0 3 1 -O ct-2 0 4 -N o v-2 0 8 -N o v-2 0 12 -N ov -2 0 1 6 -N o v-2 0 2 0 -N o v-2 0 24 -N ov -2 0 2 8 -N o v-2 0 2 -D e c-2 0 6 -D e c-2 0 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 16 -D ec -1 9 1 6 -J an -2 0 1 6 -F eb -2 0 1 6 -M ar -2 0 16 -Ap r-20 1 6 -M a y-2 0 1 6 -J u n -2 0 1 6 -J u l-2 0 1 6 -A u g-2 0 16 -S ep -2 0 1 6 -O ct-2 0 16 -N ov -2 0 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200
COVID-19 Data
Indonesia
7 Day Running Covid-19 Data
Total
1D Change
Daily 1D Change
Total
Daily
Total
Daily
Total
Closed Cases
Cases
%
Cases
%
Recovered Recovered
Deaths
Deaths Active Cases
%
12/15/2020 629,429 0.98 6,120 11.50 516,656 5,699 19,111 155 93,662
85.12
12/14/2020 623,309 0.89 5,489 (11.31) 510,957 5,121 18,956 137 93,396
85.02
12/13/2020 617,820 1.01 6,189 (3.12) 505,836 4,460 18,819 166 93,165
84.92
12/12/2020 611,631 1.06 6,388 1.24 501,376 4,490 18,653 142 91,602
85.02
12/11/2020 605,243 1.05 6,310 4.59 496,886 4,911 18,511 175 89,846
85.16
12/10/2020 598,933 1.02 6,033 (0.41) 491,975 4,530 18,336 165 88,622
85.20
12/9/2020 592,900 1.03 6,058 14.47 487,445 3,948 18,171 171 87,284
85.28
Average
6,084
4,737
159
85.10
Equity Research│16 December 2020
Poultry Sector: Emiten Poultry Bisa Kembali Berkokok
Kinerja emitem perunggasan (poultry) diprediksi akan membaik di tahun 2021didukung kenaikan harga ayam
broiler dan day old chick (DOC) yang kini berada dalam tingkat wajar. Lonjakan permintaan juga menjadi
katalis positif lain untuk sector poultry dapat mencatatkan performa yang lebih baik di tahun 2021.
(Kontan)
Comment:
Naiknya permintaan konsumsi daging ayam pada tahun 2021 sebanyak +21% yoy tentunya akan
membantu menstabilkan harga broiler di range harga IDR 18,000-20,000/kg hal ini tentunya
berdampak baik pada emiten poultry selain dapat mencatatkan volume penjualan lebih tinggi, ASP
pun naik dan stabil. Faktor pendukung lainnya adalah program culling yang terjadi pada 4Q20 akan
membuat produksi dan permintaan seimbang dengan kisaran surplus ~12-14% pada 1Q21F. Pada
bulan November 2020, dengan perkiraan surplus hanya 5%, harga broiler naik +18.2% mom ke level
IDR 18,500/kg.
Poultry Sector: Overweight
ADHI: Target kontrak baru 2021
PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) memproyeksikan kontrak baru tumbuh sebesar 20% pada 2021, dibanding proyeksi
kontrak baru tahun ini yang berada di kisaran Rp 20 triliun. Pertumbuhan kontrak baru tersebut didominasi
dari proyek pemerintah sebesar 70%.
(Investor Daily)
Comment:
Target kontrak baru ADHI 2020 sebesar IDR 27.5 triliun, proyeksi peraihan berkisar IDR 20 triliun
mencerminkan pencapaian 73% dari target. Sementara untuk 2021, proyeksi pertumbuhan 20% maka
perusahaan menargetkan kontrak baru IDR 24 triliun. Proyeksi kami sejalan dengan perusahaan
dimana pada 2020 dan 2021 kontrak baru diperkirakan mencapai IDR 19.2 triliun dan IDR 24.5 triliun.
Dari sisi beban, ADHI juga menargetkan penurunan beban operasional 0.5-1% tahun depan, sehingga
kami memproyeksikan margin laba bersih FY20F 0.7% meningkat menjadi 2.7% FY21F.
ADHI: BUY:
10.6x PE '21E, 0.7x PBV '21E, TP: IDR 1,500
Equity Research│16 December 2020
JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP SSI TP Cons SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E
Banks BMRI BUY 4.6 6,700 (12.7) 7,700 7,460 14.9 17.5 12.5 1.7 1.6 9.7% 12.6% BBCA HOLD 12.4 33,950 1.6 35,300 35,640 4.0 30.3 26.3 4.7 4.2 15.4% 16.1% BBRI BUY 7.8 4,280 (2.7) 4,800 4,650 12.1 27.3 16.1 2.8 2.5 10.3% 15.8% BBNI BUY 1.8 6,500 (17.2) 8,000 6,400 23.1 7.9 16.6 1.0 0.9 12.2% 5.3% BBTN HOLD 0.3 1,835 (13.4) 1,800 1,901 -1.9 14.0 7.6 1.1 1.0 7.9% 12.9% BNLI SELL #N/A N/A 2,670 111.1 1,376 1,113 -48.5 49.4 46.0 3.0 2.8 6.1% 6.1%
Average 24.4 20.8 2.4 2.2 10.3% 11.5% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 1.7 9,700 (13.0) 12,000 12,107 23.7 19.7 17.6 3.9 3.4 19.6% 19.1% INDF BUY 0.9 6,900 (12.9) 9,500 8,755 37.7 12.3 11.2 1.6 1.5 12.9% 13.2% KLBF BUY 1.0 1,485 (8.3) 1,750 1,783 17.8 23.6 22.5 3.9 3.6 16.8% 16.1% UNVR BUY 4.3 7,475 (11.0) 9,800 8,752 31.1 35.6 35.3 44.1 43.5 123.7% 123.4% Average 22.8 21.7 13.4 13.0 43.3% 42.9% Cigarette HMSP HOLD 2.8 1,595 (24.0) 1,520 1,478 -4.7 18.5 18.3 57.0 5.7 307.1% 30.9% GGRM BUY 1.2 42,000 (20.8) 55,150 45,309 31.3 13.5 8.4 1.5 1.4 11.2% 16.9% Average 16.0 13.4 29.2 3.5 159.2% 23.9% Healthcare MIKA HOLD 0.6 2,830 6.0 3,000 2,832 6.0 52.4 49.6 8.5 7.7 16.2% 15.5% SILO HOLD 0.1 5,800 (16.5) 5,800 5,979 0.0 414.3 175.8 1.6 1.6 0.4% 0.9% HEAL BUY 0.2 3,750 4.7 5,000 4,365 33.3 34.4 29.8 4.6 4.0 13.3% 13.5% Average 167.0 85.1 4.9 4.4 9.9% 10.0% Poultry CPIN SELL 1.6 6,725 3.5 5,800 6,385 -13.8 27.7 24.3 4.6 4.0 16.5% 16.7% JPFA BUY 0.3 1,560 1.6 1,800 1,488 15.4 24.8 11.1 1.5 1.3 6.0% 12.2% MAIN SELL 0.0 785 (21.9) 700 763 -10.8 392.5 10.8 0.8 0.8 0.2% 7.2% Average 148.3 15.4 2.3 2.1 7.6% 12.0% Retail MAPI BUY 0.2 890 (15.6) 1,350 940 51.7 12.5 11.1 1.9 1.6 15.4% 14.8% RALS BUY 0.1 750 (29.6) 1,400 681 86.7 6.5 6.0 1.1 1.0 17.3% 17.3% ACES HOLD 0.5 1,810 21.1 1,900 1,798 5.0 26.6 23.8 5.6 4.9 21.2% 20.7% Average 15.2 13.6 2.9 2.5 18.0% 17.6%
Pulp and Paper
INKP SELL 0.9 10,800 40.3 6,900 9,000 -36.1 12.4 14.9 0.9 0.9 7.6% 6.0% Average 12.4 14.9 0.9 0.9 7.6% Media MNCN BUY 0.2 1,055 (35.3) 1,390 1,401 31.8 5.7 5.1 1.0 0.9 17.5% 17.3% SCMA SELL 0.4 1,945 37.9 1,550 1,836 -20.3 16.8 16.8 4.4 4.0 26.4% 23.8% Average 11.2 10.9 2.7 2.4 22.0% 20.5% Telco EXCL BUY 0.4 2,700 (14.3) 3,300 3,398 22.2 12.3 27.3 1.4 1.3 11.0% 4.8% ISAT HOLD 0.3 3,390 16.5 3,100 3,076 -8.6 n/a 89.2 1.5 1.5 -3.2% 1.6% TLKM BUY 5.1 3,450 (11.9) 4,300 3,939 24.6 15.5 14.7 2.8 2.6 17.8% 17.8% Average 13.9 43.7 1.9 1.8 8.5% 8.1% Telco Retail ERAA SELL 0.1 1,995 11.1 1,625 2,153 -18.5 10.7 8.7 1.2 1.0 11.0% 11.9% Telco Infra TBIG HOLD 0.5 1,490 21.1 1,550 1,570 4.0 31.0 29.2 5.1 4.6 16.5% 15.6% TOWR BUY 0.8 995 23.6 1,300 1,251 30.7 16.9 15.5 4.7 3.9 27.7% 25.2% Average 24.0 22.4 4.9 4.2 22.1% 20.4% Stock Rec.
Equity Research│16 December 2020
JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP SSI TP Cons SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE (%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E
Auto ASII BUY 3.6 5,950 (14.1) 7,500 6,322 26.1 11.1 10.1 1.2 1.1 10.8% 10.9% Average 11.1 10.1 1.2 1.1 10.8% Mining Contracting UNTR SELL 1.5 26,575 23.5 22,300 27,755 -16.1 8.3 6.2 1.8 1.2 22.1% 19.7% Average 8.3 6.2 1.8 1.2 22.1% Aviation GIAA BUY 0.2 440 (11.6) 650 273 47.7 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.7 17.5% 16.9% Average 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.7 17.5% Property BSDE SELL 0.3 1,090 (13.1) 950 1,205 -12.8 25.3 20.6 0.6 0.6 2.3% 3.1% PWON SELL 0.4 525 (7.9) 460 584 -12.4 15.9 12.2 1.4 1.2 8.9% 10.0% ASRI SELL 0.1 252 5.9 130 213 -48.4 19.4 9.0 0.4 0.4 2.3% 4.7% LPKR SELL 0.3 248 2.5 140 195 -43.5 n/a n/a 0.6 0.6 -0.5% -0.2% SMRA HOLD 0.2 780 (22.4) 800 942 2.6 52.0 31.2 1.4 1.3 2.7% 4.2% CTRA HOLD 0.2 880 (15.4) 950 1,033 8.0 23.2 16.9 1.0 1.0 4.4% 5.7% Average 27.2 18.0 0.9 0.9 3.4% 4.6% Industrial Estate SSIA HOLD 0.0 550 (16.0) 550 562 0.0 61.1 30.6 0.6 0.6 1.0% 2.0% DMAS HOLD 0.2 252 (14.9) 250 247 -0.8 16.8 14.8 1.6 1.9 9.6% 12.7% KIJA SELL 0.1 218 (25.3) 150 170 -31.2 19.8 16.8 0.8 0.6 4.0% 3.4% Average 32.6 20.7 1.0 1.0 4.9% 5.0% Construction PTPP SELL 0.1 1,580 (0.3) 1,200 1,466 -24.1 40.5 12.5 0.7 0.6 1.6% 5.0% ADHI BUY 0.1 1,280 8.9 1,500 1,042 17.2 53.3 10.6 0.8 0.7 1.5% 7.0% WSKT SELL 0.2 1,190 (19.9) 600 1,110 -49.6 n/a 66.1 0.7 0.7 -7.3% 1.1% WIKA SELL 0.2 1,810 (9.0) 1,600 1,663 -11.6 18.9 12.3 0.9 0.9 5.0% 7.1% Average 37.6 25.4 0.8 0.7 0.2% 5.0% Cement INTP BUY 0.8 14,250 (25.1) 16,250 16,125 14.0 39.6 32.9 2.3 2.3 5.8% 6.9% SMGR SELL 1.1 12,250 2.1 10,800 12,848 -11.8 54.7 32.4 2.1 2.0 3.8% 6.1% Average 47.1 32.7 2.2 2.1 4.8% 6.5% Precast WSBP SELL 0.1 236 (22.4) 170 241 -28.0 5.4 4.6 0.6 0.6 12.1% 12.7% WTON SELL 0.1 386 (14.2) 340 420 -11.9 5.4 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.6% 16.0% Average 5.4 4.6 0.7 0.7 13.8% 14.3%
Oil and Gas
PGAS SELL 0.6 1,790 (17.5) 700 1,562 -60.9 30.3 22.7 1.1 1.0 3.6% 4.6% AKRA BUY 0.2 3,280 (17.0) 3,800 3,574 15.9 15.2 14.1 1.5 1.5 10.1% 10.4% MEDC BUY 0.2 630 (14.0) 950 533 50.8 11.1 5.0 0.6 0.6 5.9% 12.1% Average 18.9 13.9 1.1 1.0 6.5% 9.0% Chemical TPIA SELL 2.5 9,500 (8.4) 7,575 7,830 -20.3 77.9 77.9 6.7 6.7 8.6% 8.6% BRPT SELL 1.7 1,250 (17.2) 1,075 1,063 -14.0 9.3 9.3 0.6 0.6 6.2% 6.2% ESSA BUY 0.1 222 (17.2) 280 400 26.1 6.5 6.5 0.6 0.6 9.6% 9.6% Average 31.2 31.2 2.6 2.6 8.2% 8.1% Utilities JSMR HOLD 0.5 4,460 (13.8) 4,700 5,429 5.4 55.8 17.8 1.3 1.2 2.4% 6.9% Metal ANTM SELL 0.6 1,560 85.7 960 1,318 -38.5 222.9 141.8 2.1 2.1 0.9% 1.5% MDKA SELL 0.7 2,000 86.9 1,600 2,078 -20.0 25.6 15.9 6.5 5.1 25.2% 31.9% INCO SELL 0.8 5,250 44.2 4,000 4,967 -23.8 33.4 28.8 1.8 1.7 5.2% 6.0% TINS BUY 0.2 1,385 67.9 1,775 1,120 28.2 n/a 1573.9 2.0 2.4 -4.2% 0.1%
Average 94.0 440.1 3.1 2.8 6.8% 9.9%
Equity Research│16 December 2020
JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP SSI TP Cons SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E
Coal ITMG SELL 0.3 15,225 32.7 8,080 12,806 -46.9 5.8 7.1 2.2 4.1 37.8% 57.3% ADRO HOLD 0.7 1,530 (1.6) 1,600 1,613 4.6 8.0 8.1 0.8 0.8 9.9% 9.3% PTBA SELL 0.5 3,070 15.4 1,870 2,701 -39.1 12.7 19.2 2.0 2.0 15.7% 10.6% Average 8.8 11.4 1.7 2.3 21.1% 25.7% Plantation AALI HOLD 0.3 11,850 (18.7) 11,100 12,895 -6.3 35.5 20.9 1.2 1.1 3.4% 5.5% LSIP HOLD 0.1 1,245 (16.2) 1,145 1,376 -8.0 23.9 21.5 1.0 0.9 4.1% 4.4% TBLA BUY 0.1 810 (18.6) 980 1,077 21.0 5.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 14.3% 14.3% SIMP HOLD 0.1 402 (6.9) 388 470 -3.5 36.5 23.6 0.4 0.4 1.2% 1.8% SSMS BUY 0.1 860 1.8 1,050 1,575 22.1 16.5 11.8 1.8 1.6 11.0% 13.8% Average 23.5 16.5 1.0 1.0 6.8% 8.0%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Note: GIAA, INKP, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Stock Rec.
Equity Research│16 December 2020
Chg (Pts)
1D
1D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
World
2,644
24.31
0.93
0.62
3.21
10.00
12.10
13.10
2,652
1,579
U.S. (S&P)
3,695
47.13
1.29
(0.21)
1.87
9.13
14.36
15.77
3,712
2,192
U.S. (DOW)
30,199
337.76
1.13
0.08
0.83
7.73
5.82
6.95
30,326
18,214
Europe
3,522
17.54
0.50
(0.12)
1.60
5.47
(5.97)
(6.66)
3,867
2,303
Emerging Market
1,250
(0.24)
(0.02)
(0.45)
3.92
11.93
12.16
14.91
1,262
752
FTSE 100
6,513
(18.51)
(0.28)
(0.69)
1.43
7.15
(13.64)
(13.38)
7,690
4,899
CAC 40
5,530
2.47
0.04
(0.55)
1.08
8.98
(7.49)
(7.70)
6,111
3,632
Dax
13,363
139.71
1.06
0.64
1.71
0.81
0.86
(0.33)
13,795
8,256
Indonesia
6,010
(2.39)
(0.04)
1.34
9.38
18.81
(4.59)
(3.24)
6,349
3,912
Japan
26,818
130.18
0.49
0.00
3.52
14.24
13.36
11.96
26,894
16,358
Australia
6,710
78.36
1.18
(0.28)
3.48
12.65
0.38
(2.04)
7,197
4,403
Korea
2,770
12.92
0.47
0.52
8.91
13.70
26.03
27.75
2,783
1,439
Singapore
2,857
(1.42)
(0.05)
1.10
3.96
14.03
(11.36)
(10.90)
3,284
2,208
Malaysia
1,674
11.28
0.68
2.59
4.65
9.32
5.37
6.67
1,696
1,208
Hong Kong
26,207
(182.23)
(0.69)
(0.37)
(0.66)
5.99
(7.03)
(4.73)
29,175
21,139
China
3,367
(1.89)
(0.06)
(1.26)
0.61
2.54
10.40
12.83
3,466
2,647
Taiwan
14,069
(142.53)
(1.00)
(2.03)
3.81
8.41
17.27
17.83
14,427
8,524
Thailand
1,477
1.08
0.07
2.70
9.34
14.20
(6.50)
(4.68)
1,604
969
Philipines
7,228
(53.62)
(0.74)
0.33
4.48
21.54
(7.52)
(6.15)
7,892
4,039
1D
1D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Foreign Reserves (US$Bn)
133.60
(0.05)
(2.51)
3.42
5.50
137.04
120.97
Inflation Rate (yoy, %)
1.59
2.98
1.32
Gov Bond Yld (10yr, %)
6.12
(15.88)
8.38
6.12
US Fed Rate (%)
0.25
1.75
0.25
Chg (Pts)
1D
1D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Indonesia
14,120
25.00
(0.18)
(0.07)
(0.07)
5.13
(1.80)
(0.78)
16,625
13,577
Japan
103.68
0.01
(0.01)
0.53
0.87
1.22
4.76
5.66
112.23
101.19
UK
1.34
(0.00)
(0.16)
0.30
1.82
3.64
1.37
0.80
1.35
1.14
Euro
1.22
0.00
0.00
0.58
2.52
2.84
8.37
9.04
1.22
1.06
China
6.54
(0.01)
0.18
(0.10)
0.69
3.72
6.48
6.94
7.18
6.52
Chg (Pts)
1D
1D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Oil (Brent)
50.76
0.47
0.93
3.93
18.65
25.24
(23.09)
(22.17)
71.75
15.98
CPO
3,355
(5.00)
(0.15)
2.82
1.70
15.33
9.93
17.93
3,420
1,944
Rubber
977.50
(4.00)
(0.41)
(3.22)
(1.41)
18.63
27.95
26.13
1,262.50
685.00
Coal
84.50
0.65
0.78
10.17
34.98
56.19
24.82
26.12
84.75
47.50
Tin
19,720
(60.00)
(0.30)
2.84
7.04
8.48
14.80
14.37
19,795
13,375
Nickel
17,577
(13.00)
(0.07)
7.19
10.60
15.65
25.33
24.04
17,880
10,865
Copper
7,783
31.50
0.41
1.08
11.46
15.10
26.05
26.96
7,974
4,371
Gold
1,854
0.80
0.04
0.97
(1.79)
(5.50)
22.01
25.45
2,074
1,451
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Change (%)
1 Year
Change (%)
1 Year
Change (%)
1 Year
Commodity Indicators
Last Price
Regional Indices
Last Price
DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in his research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its
Equity Research│16 December 2020
Research Team
Suria Dharma Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer (Staple) [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Ahmad Mikail Zaini Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396
William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
Yosua Zisokhi Cement , Cigarette,Paper, Plantation,Telco Infra, Chemical [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Dessy Lapagu Aviation, Coal, Metal [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Selvi Ocktaviani Automotive,Construction, Precast,Telco, Toll Roads Mining Cont., [email protected] +6221 2854 8393 Ilham Akbar Healthcare, Ind. Estate, Property,Oil & Gas [email protected] +6221 2854 8144
Nashrullah Putra Media, Poultry [email protected] +6221 2854 8144
Calista Muskitta Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8331
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Gitta Wahyu Retnani Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8365
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Fixed Income Sales Team
R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income [email protected] +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8337
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
