Lampiran 1 Blok persamaan pada file input tablo Model CGE INDOTDL.

(1)

! Excerpt 1 of TABLO input file: !

! Sets and flows data!

Set

! User categories: IO table columns !

IND # Industries #

(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak,IndBambuKy, IndKertas,

IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr, IndBrgLgm, IndMesin,

Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan, PerdagHR, Angkom,

KeuJspersh, JasaLain);

! subscript i !

FINALUSER

# Final demanders #

(InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, Export, GovGE);

USER

# All users #= IND

union

FINALUSER;

! subscript u !

IMPUSER

# Non-export demanders: users of imports #

(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak, IndBambuKy, IndKertas,

IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr,IndBrgLgm, IndMesin,

Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan, PerdagHR, Angkom,

KeuJspersh, JasaLain, InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, GovGE);

HH

# Total household demand # (HouseHB, HouseHA);

Subset

IMPUSER

is subset of

USER;

IND

is subset of

IMPUSER;

HH

is subset of

IMPUSER;

Set

! Input categories: IO table rows !

COM

# Commodities #

(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak, IndBambuKy,

IndKertas, IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr, IndBrgLgm,

IndMesin, Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan,

PerdagHR, Angkom, KeuJspersh, JasaLain);

! subscript c !

SRC

# Source of commodities # (domestik,impor);

!subscript s !

FAC

# Primary factors # (Labour, Capital);

! subscript f !

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)

USE(c,s,u) # USE matrix #;

(all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND)

FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #;

(all,i,IND)

V1PTX(i) # Production tax revenue# ;

(all,c,COM)

V0MTX(c) # import tax revenue #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)

V3TAX(c,s,u) # Taxes on households #;

File

BASEDATA

# Flows Data File #;

Read

USE from file

BASEDATA

header

"USE";

FACTOR from file

BASEDATA

header

"1FAC";

V0MTX from file

BASEDATA

header

"0TAR";

V1PTX from file

BASEDATA

header

"1PTX";

V3TAX

from file

BASEDATA

header

"3TAX";

(2)

! Excerpt 2 of TABLO input file: !

! Useful aggregates of the base data !

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER)

USE_S(c,u) # USE matrix, dom+imp together#;

(all,u,USER)

USE_CS(u) # Total user expenditure on goods #;

(all,u,USER)(all,s,SRC)

USE_C(s,u)

# Expenditure by user u on total goods of source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)

SALES(c,s) # Total value of sales #;

(all,i,IND)

V1PRIM(i) # Wages plus profits #;

(all,i,IND)

V1TOT(i) # Industry Costs #;

(all,u,HH)

V3TOT_HH(u)# Total purchases by each households# ;

V3TOT # Total purchases by households #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) V3PUR(c,s,u) # Households purch. value #;

(all,c,COM)

V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #;

Formula

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER)

USE_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,USE(c,s,u)};

(all,u,USER)

USE_CS(u) = sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,u)};

(all,u,USER)(all,s,SRC)

USE_C(s,u) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,u)};

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)

SALES(c,s) = sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)};

(all,i,IND)

V1PRIM(i) = sum{f,FAC,FACTOR(f,i)};

(all,i,IND)

V1TOT(i) = V1PRIM(i) + sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,i)};

(all,u,HH)

V3TOT_HH(u) = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,u) };

V3TOT = sum(u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u));

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) V3PUR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)+ V3TAX(c,s,u);

(all,c,COM)

V0CIF(c) = SALES(c,"impor") -

V0MTX(c);

! Excerpt 3 of TABLO input file: !

! Total demands for commodities !

Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)

x(c,s,u) # Demand by user u for good c, source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)

x3(c,s,u) # Demand by household u for good c, source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) x0(c,s) # Total demand for good c, source s #;

Equation

E_x0

**(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)x(c,s,u)};**

! Excerpt 4 of TABLO input file: !

! Import/Domestic sourcing decision for all non-export users!

Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)

p(c,s) #User price of good c,source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER)

p_s(c,u) # User price of composite good c #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) p3_s(c,u) # Purchaser's price household of composite good c #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)

p3(c,s,u) # Purchaser's price, household #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER)

x_s(c,u) # Use of composite good c #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH)

x3_s(c,u) # Use household of composite good c #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) f3tax(c,u) # shifter in power of taxes on Household usage#;

(3)

Coefficient

(all,c,COM) SIGMA(c) # elasticity of substitution: domestic/imported #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) # imp/dom shares #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) SRCHH(c,s,u) # imp/dom household shares #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) V3PUR_S(c,u) # Dom+imp households purch. value #;

Read

SIGMA

from file

BASEDATA

header

"ARM";

Formula

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH)

V3PUR_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)};

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)/USE_S(c,u);

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) SRCHH(c,s,u) = V3PUR(c,s,u)/V3PUR_S(c,u);

Equation

E_x

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) x(c,s,u) =

x_s(c,u) -

SIGMA(c)*[p(c,s) -

p_s(c,u)];

Equation

E_x3

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) x3(c,s,u)=

x3_s(c,u) -

SIGMA(c)*[p3(c,s,u)-

p3_s(c,u)];

Equation

E_x3_s

(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) x3_s(c,u)= sum{s,SRC,x(c,s,u)};

Equation

E_p_s

**(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCSHR(c,s,u)*p(c,s)};**

Equation

E_p3_s

**(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) p3_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCHH(c,s,u)*[p3(c,s,u)]};**

Equation

E_p3

# Purchasers prices - households #

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)

V3PUR(c,s,u)p3(c,s,u) = [V3PUR(c,s,u)][p(c,s)+f3tax(c,u)];

! Excerpt 5 of TABLO input file: !

! Demands for capital and labour !

Variable

(all,i,IND)

x1prim(i) # Industry demand for primary-factor composite #;

(all,i,IND)

p1prim(i) # Price of primary factor composite #;

(all,i,IND)

x1lab(i) # Employment by industry #;

p1lab # Economy-wide wage rate #;

(all,i,IND)

x1cap(i) # Current capital stock #;

(all,i,IND)

p1cap(i) # Rental price of capital #;

Coefficient

(all,i,IND) SIGMA1PRIM(i) # CES substitution, primary factors #;

Read

SIGMA1PRIM

from file

BASEDATA

header

"P028";

Equation

E_x1lab

(4)

Equation

E_x1cap

(all,i,IND) x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) -

SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)];

Equation

E_p1prim

**(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i) =**

FACTOR("Labour",i)p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)p1cap(i);

! Excerpt 6 of TABLO input file: !

! Demands for composite inputs to production !

Variable

(all,i,IND) x1tot(i) # Industry output #;

(all,i,IND) a1prim(i) # All primary-factor augmenting technical change #;

(all,i,IND) p1tot(i) # Unit cost of production #;

Equation

E_x1

# demand for commodity composites #

(all,c,COM)(all,i,IND) x_s(c,i)= x1tot(i);

Equation

E_x1prim

# demand for primary-factor composites #

(all,i,IND) x1prim(i) = a1prim(i) + x1tot(i);

Equation

E_p1tot

# cost of production = cost of all inputs #

**(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i)*[p1tot(i)+ x1tot(i)] =**

**sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)*[p(c,s) + x(c,s,i)]}}**

+ FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]

+ FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i)+ x1cap(i)];

! Excerpt 7_T of TABLO input file: !

! Total household demands !

Variable

(all,u,HH)

w3tot_hh(u)

# Nominal total consumption, each household #;

(all,u,HH)

x3tot_hh(u) # Real total consumption, each household #;

(all,u,HH)

p3tot_hh(u) # consumer price index, each household #;

p3tot

# Consumer price index #;

x3tot

# Real total household consumption #;

w3tot

# Nominal total household consumption #;

Equation

E_x3_hh

(5)

Equation

E_x3tot_hh # Real consumption #

**(all,u,HH)V3TOT_HH(u)*x3tot_hh(u) =**

**sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)*x3(c,s,u)}};**

Equation

E_p3tot_hh # Consumer price index #

**(all,u,HH)V3TOT_HH(u)*p3tot_hh(u) =**

**sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)*p3(c,s,u)}};**

Equation

E_w3tot_hh # Household budget constraint #

(all,u,HH)w3tot_hh(u) = x3tot_hh(u) + p3tot_hh(u);

Equation

E_x3tot # Real consumption #

V3TOTx3tot = sum{u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u)x3tot_hh(u)};

Equation

E_p3tot # Consumer price index #

V3TOTp3tot = sum{u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u)p3tot_hh(u)};

Equation

E_w3tot # Household budget constraint #

w3tot = x3tot + p3tot;

! Excerpt 8 of TABLO input file: !

! Export demands !

Variable

(all,c,COM)

pworld(c)

# World prices, measured in foreign currency #;

(all,c,COM)

f4q(c)

# Quantity shift in foreign demand #;

phi

# Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) #;

Coefficient (all,

c,COM) EXP_ELAST(c) # Export demand elasticities #;

Read

EXP_ELAST

from file

BASEDATA

header

"P018";

Equation

E_x4a (all,c,COM) x(c,"domestik","Export") =

f4q(c)-EXP_ELAST(c)*[{p(c,"domestik")-phi

}-

pworld(c)];

Equation

E_x4b (all,c,COM) x(c,"impor","Export") = 0;

! Excerpt 9 of TABLO input file: !

! Market clearing and prices for domestic commodities !

Subset

COM

is subset of

IND;

Equation

E_x1tot (all,c,COM) x1tot(c) = x0(c,"domestik");

Variable

(change)(all,c,COM) Delptxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of domestic tax #;

Equation

E_pA

!Prices for domestic commodities !

(all,c,COM)

p(c,"domestik") =

(6)

! Excerpt 10 of TABLO input file: !

! Prices for imported commodities !

Variable

(change)(all,c,COM) Delmtxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of import tax #;

Equation

E_pB

!Prices for import commodities !

(all,c,COM) p(c,"impor") =

pworld(c)+phi +100[V0CIF(c)/SALES(c,"impor")]Delmtxrate(c);

! Excerpt 11 of TABLO input file: !

! GDP from income side !

Variable

w0gdpinc # Nominal GDP from income side #;

Coefficient

V0GDPINC # GDP from income side #;

Formula

V0GDPINC = sum{i,IND, sum{f,FAC, FACTOR(f,i)}}

+ sum{c,COM, V1PTX(c) + V0MTX(c)};

Equation

E_w0gdpinc

V0GDPINC*w0gdpinc =

**sum{i,IND, FACTOR( "Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]}**

**+sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i) + x1cap(i)]}**

**+sum{c,COM, 100V1TOT(c)Delptxrate(c) + V1PTX(c)*[**

x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]}

+sum{c,COM, 100V0CIF(c)Delmtxrate(c) + V0MTX(c)*

[x0(c,"impor")+pworld(c)+phi

]};

! Excerpt 12 of TABLO input file: !

! Expenditure-side GDP measures !

Variable

w0gdpexp # Nominal GDP from expenditure side #;

p0gdpexp # GDP price index, expenditure side #;

x0gdpexp # Real GDP from expenditure side #;

Coefficient

V0GDPEXP

# GDP from expenditure side #;

Formula

V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}}

-V0CIF(c)};

(7)

Equation

E_w0gdpexp

V0GDPEXP*w0gdpexp =

**sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*[p(c,s)+x(c,s,u)]}}**

-

V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+ pworld(c)+phi

]};

Equation

E_p0gdpexp

V0GDPEXP*p0gdpexp = sum{c,COM,

**sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)p(c,s)}} -V0CIF(c)[pworld(c)+phi**

]};

Equation

E_x0gdpexp x0gdpexp = w0gdpexp

-

p0gdpexp;

! Excerpt 13 of TABLO input file: !

! More macro variables !

Variable

x4tot

# Export volume index #;

p4tot

# Export price index #;

p2tot

# Investment price index #;

x0cif_c

# Import volume index, CIF prices #;

(change) delB

# (Balance of trade)/GDP #;

Equation

E_x4tot

sum{

c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[x4tot

-

x(c,"domestik","Export")]} = 0;

Equation

E_p4tot

**sum{c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[p4tot**

-

p(c,"domestik")]} = 0;

Equation

E_p2tot

**sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,"InvStock")*[p2tot**

-

p(c,s)]}} = 0;

Equation

E_x0cif_c

**sum{c,COM, V0CIF(c)*[x0cif_c -**

x0(c,"impor")]}=0;

Equation

E_delB

100V0GDPEXPdelB=sum{c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[p(c,"domestik")+

x(c,"domestik","Export")-w0gdpexp

] -

V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+

(8)

! Excerpt 14 of TABLO input file: !

! Variables to assist factor market closure !

Variable

realwage # Wage rate deflated by CPI #;

employ # Aggregate employment #;

(all,i,IND) gret(i) # Gross rate of return #;

Equation

E_realwage realwage = p1lab

-

p3tot;

Equation

E_employ sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labour",i)*[employ

-

x1lab(i)]}=0;

Equation

E_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) -

p2tot;

! Excerpt 15 of TABLO input file: !

! Updating rules !

Update

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)

USE(c,s,u) = p(c,s)*x(c,s,u);

(all,i,IND)

FACTOR("Labour",i) = p1lab*x1lab(i);

(all,i,IND)

FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i);

(change) (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)

V3TAX(c,s,u) = V3TAX(c,s,u)* [x(c,s,u) + p(c,s)]/100 +

V3PUR(c,s,u)*f3tax(c,u)/100;

(change)(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) =

V0CIF(c)Delmtxrate(c) + 0.01V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+

pworld(c)+phi

];

(change)(all,c,COM) V1PTX(c) =

V1TOT(c)Delptxrate(c) + 0.01V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)];

! Excerpt 16 of TABLO input file: !

! Summarize and check data !

File (new)

SUMMARY

# output file for summary data #;

Coefficient (all,

c,COM) CHECK(c) # (costs + tax) - sales : should = 0 #;

Formula (all,

c,COM) CHECK(c) = V1TOT(c) + V1PTX(c) –

(9)

Set

COSTCAT

# cost categories # = SRC

union

FAC;

Coefficient

(all,c,COSTCAT)(all,i,IND) COSTMAT(c,i) # Summary of industry costs #;

Formula

(all,i,IND)(all,s,SRC) COSTMAT(s,i) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,i)};

(all,i,IND)(all,f,FAC) COSTMAT(f,i) = FACTOR(f,i);

Write

CHECK to file

SUMMARY

header

"CHEK";

COSTMAT to file

SUMMARY

header

"COST";

SALES to file

SUMMARY

header

"SALE";

V1PRIM to file

SUMMARY

header

"1PRM";

V1TOT to file

SUMMARY

header

"1TOT";

V0CIF to file

SUMMARY

header

"0CIF";

V0GDPEXP to file

SUMMARY

header

"GDPE";

V0GDPINC to file

SUMMARY

header

"GDPI";

! Excerpt 17 of TABLO input file: !

! More summary data !

Set

MAINUSER

# broad user groups #

(Intermediate, InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, Export, GovGE);

Subset

FinalUser

is subset of

MAINUSER;

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,u,MAINUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) # Summary of sales #;

Formula

(all,c,COM) MAINSALES(c,"Intermediate") = sum{i,IND,USE(c,"domestik",i)};

(all,c,COM)(all,u,FINALUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) = USE(c,"domestik",u);

Coefficient (all,

i,IND) CAPSHR(i) # Share of capital in primary factor costs #;

Formula (all,

i,IND) CAPSHR(i) = FACTOR("capital",i)/V1PRIM(i);

Coefficient (all,

c,COM) IMPSHR(c) # Share imports in local purchases #;

Formula (all,

c,COM) IMPSHR(c) =

sum{u,IMPUSER,USE(c,"impor",u)}/sum{u,IMPUSER,USE_S(c,u)};

Write

MAINSALES

to file

SUMMARY

header

"MSAL";

CAPSHR to file

SUMMARY

header

"KSHR";

IMPSHR to file

SUMMARY

header

"MSHR";

(10)

Lampiran 2 Jumlah bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik

PLN tahun 2001-2009.

HSD IDO MFO Tot

2001 3.575.480 30.457 1.793.283 5.399.220 14.027.713 222.421 2002 4.625.521 40.682 2.300.603 6.966.806 14.054.377 192.927 2003 5.024.362 31.573 2.557.546 7.613.481 15.260.305 184.304 2004 6.299.706 36.935 2.502.598 8.839.239 15.412.738 176.436 2005 7.626.201 27.581 2.258.776 9.912.558 16.900.972 143.050 2006 7.586.916 23.977 2.387.622 9.998.515 19.084.438 157.894 2007 7.874.290 13.557 2.801.128 10.688.975 21.466.348 171.209 2008 8.127.546 28.989 3.163.954 11.320.489 20.999.521 181.661 2009 6.365.116 11.132 3.032.657 9.408.905 21.604.464 266.539

Tahun BBM (kilo liter)

Jumlah

Batubara (Ton)

Gas Alam (MMSCF)

Lampiran 3 Harga bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik

tahun 2001-2009.

HSD IDO MFO Tot

2001 879 797 655 804 200 26.074 2002 1.407 1.332 127 1.314 220 23.497 2003 1.741 1.705 1.595 1.680 231 21.550 2004 1.829 1.694 1.698 1.740 231 21.258 2005 2.819 2.486 2.418 2.574 252 25.324 2006 5.629 5.351 3.535 4.838 336 24.186 2007 5.350 5.275 3.563 4.881 339 23.481 2008 8.738 8.650 5.762 7.906 489 29.128 2009 5.601 5.552 4.316 5.187 732 37.998 Harga

Tahun BBM (Rp/ liter) _Batubara

(Rp/Kg)

Gas Alam (Rp/MSCF)

(11)

Lampiran 4 Nilai biaya bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan

listrik tahun 2001-2009.

HSD IDO MFO Tot

2001 3.141.131 24.275 1.174.098 4.339.503 2.799.932 5.799.356 12.938.791 2002 6.507.137 54.179 292.294 6.853.610 3.088.449 4.533.190 14.475.249 2003 8.746.962 53.835 4.079.670 12.880.467 3.522.384 3.971.825 20.374.675 2004 11.522.855 62.572 4.248.661 15.834.088 3.556.489 3.750.685 23.141.262 2005 21.499.405 68.566 5.462.150 27.030.120 4.251.440 3.622.564 34.904.124 2006 42.708.343 128.292 8.439.122 51.275.757 6.408.745 3.818.760 61.503.262 2007 42.124.381 71.519 9.981.568 52.177.467 7.271.940 4.020.157 63.469.564 2008 71.020.529 250.762 18.231.019 89.502.310 10.273.596 5.291.451 105.067.356 2009 35.651.460 61.809 13.088.523 48.801.792 15.821.381 10.128.077 74.751.250 Tahun Nilai (juta RP) BBM

Batubara Gas Alam Total

Lampiran 5 Share nilai biaya bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk

membangkitkan listrik tahun 2001-2009.

HSD IDO MFO Tot

2001 24,28 0,19 9,07 33,54 21,64 44,82 100,00 2002 44,95 0,37 2,02 47,35 21,34 31,32 100,00 2003 42,93 0,26 20,02 63,22 17,29 19,49 100,00 2004 49,79 0,27 18,36 68,42 15,37 16,21 100,00 2005 61,60 0,20 15,65 77,44 12,18 10,38 100,00 2006 69,44 0,21 13,72 83,37 10,42 6,21 100,00 2007 66,37 0,11 15,73 82,21 11,46 6,33 100,00 2008 67,60 0,24 17,35 85,19 9,78 5,04 100,00 2009 47,69 0,08 17,51 65,29 21,17 13,55 100,00 Batubara Tahun Gas Alam Komposisi BBM Total