Throughout 2020 BPS reported that the average price of grain and rice at the producer level was still higher than the price in 2019. The largest increase in prices occurred in GKG at the Milling level while the smallest increase occurred in GKP at the Milling level. All producer prices are above the Minister of Trade HPP Regulation 24-2020, this condition is quite ideal for the general market but BULOG needs to consider that the Government Rice Reserve (CBP) commodity is purchased at HPP prices so that the quality obtained is diffi cult to compete with the quality of products purchased at market price.
National Grain/Rice Price Development in 2020 (Rp/Kg)
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Kondisi pergerakan harga produsen di tahun 2020 mendapat pengaruh dari penurunan daya beli di tingkat konsumen sebagai akibat dari penanggulangan Pandemi Covid-19. Hal ini terlihat dari kondisi harga gabah/beras di bulan Desember yang biasanya lebih tinggi dari posisi harga di bulan Januari pada tahun yang sama tidak terjadi di tahun 2020 yang tren pergerakan harga produsennya bergerak menurun sepanjang tahun.
Perkembangan Harga Gabah/Beras Nasional Tahun 2020 (Rp/Kg)
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS).
Source: Central Agency on Statistics (BPS).
Selama tahun 2020 diprakirakan produksi beras nasional mencapai 35,31 juta ton setara beras. Produksi beras tertinggi tahun 2020 terjadi pada bulan April atau mundur 1 bulan dari masa puncak produksi tahun-tahun sebelumnya yang terjadi pada bulan Maret. Kemunduran tingkat produksi ini tidak terlihat pada bulan-bulan selanjutnya namun tingkat produksi di akhir tahun 2020 (Agustus s/d Desember) lebih tinggi dibandingkan tahun-tahun sebelumnya, akibatnya meskipun sempat memiliki tingkat produksi lebih kecil pada masa awal-awal tahun namun total produksi di tahun 2020 menempati posisi ke-2 selama 3 tahun terakhir. Pada TW I tahun 2021 perlu diwaspadai adanya La Nina yang meningkatkan curah hujan, kondisi demikian pada tanaman padi yang telah berisi dapat menyebabkan padi rebah dan rontok.
The producer price development in 2020 was aff ected by the decline in purchasing power at the consumer level as a result of overcoming the Covid-19 Pandemic. This can be seen from the condition of the price of grain/rice in December which is usually higher than the price position in January of the same year. This did not happen in 2020, where the trend of producer price movements was downward throughout the year.
National Grain/Rice Price Development in 2020 (Rp/Kg)
Throughout 2020, it was estimated that national rice production would reach 35.31 million tons of rice equivalent. The highest rice production in 2020 occurred in April or a month backward from the peak production period in previous years which occurred in March. This decline in production levels was not seen in the following months, but the production level at the end of 2020 (August to December) was higher than in previous years, as a result, despite having a lower production level at the beginning of the year, the total production in 2020 occupied the 2nd position for the last 3 years. In the fi rst quarter of 2021, it is necessary to watch out for La Nina which increases rainfall, such conditions can cause rice plants that are already fi lled collapse and fall out.
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Produksi Setara Beras Tahun 2018-2020 (Juta Ton)
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS).
Source: Central Agency on Statistics (BPS).
Di tingkat grosir, Pasar Induk Beras Cipinang (PIBC) dan BULOG melaporkan selama tahun 2020 harga beras cenderung stabil dengan tren harga yang cenderung rata. Menjelang akhir tahun 2020 tidak terlihat kenaikan harga signifi kan yang kerap terjadi pada harga IR-II bahkan terjadi penurunan pada peralihan harga di bulan November 2020 ke Desember 2020, hal tersebut diperkirakan merupakan efek dari penurunan daya beli di tingkat konsumen. Harga diprakirakan akan kembali naik pada bulan Januari atau Februari 2021.
Perkembangan Harga Grosir Beras Nasional Tahun 2020 (Rp/Kg)
Sumber: PIBC dan BULOG, diolah.
Souce: PIBC and BULOG, processed.
Rice Equivalent Productions 2018-2020 (Million Tons)
At the wholesale level, the Cipinang Rice Wholesale Market (PIBC) and BULOG reported that during 2020 rice prices tended to be stable with price trends that tended to be fl at. Towards the end of 2020, there was no signifi cant price increase that often occurred in the price of IR-II, there was even a decline in the price transition from November 2020 to December 2020, this is estimated to be the eff ect of a decrease in purchasing power at the consumer level. Prices are predicted to rise again in January or February 2021.
National Rice Wholesale Price Development in 2020 (Rp/Kg)
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Pola pergerakan stok di PIBC selama tahun 2020 memiliki tren menurun dengan posisi stok akhir tahun lebih rendah dibanding posisi stok di awal tahun. Pada bulan Desember 2020 sempat terjadi kenaikan stok cukup signifi kan akibat adanya peningkatan pasokan namun tidak diikuti dengan pengeluaran yang sebanding, meskipun demikian tingkat stok di akhir tahun 2020 tetap tidak dapat melampaui tingkat stok di awal tahun 2020. Kondisi demikian merupakan salah satu faktor yang menjaga kestabilan harga di PIBC selama akhir tahun 2020.
Pemasukan, Pengeluaran, dan Stok Akhir PIBC Tahun 2020 (Ton)
Sumber: PIBC.
Source: PIBC
Di tingkat eceran pada tahun 2020, data BULOG dan BPS menunjukkan adanya penurunan rata-rata tahun 2020 dibanding rata-rata tahun 2019. Hanya data PIHPS yang menunjukan adanya kenaikan rata-rata dari harga di tahun 2020 terhadap tahun 2019.
Kondisi harga beras eceran serupa dengan kondisi di tingkat grosir dimana harga di akhir tahun 2020 lebih rendah dibanding harga di awal tahun 2020 sebagai akibat dari pelemahan daya beli masyarakat yang memaksa pedagang menurunkan harga agar perputaran barang tetap terjaga.
Perkembangan Harga Eceran Beras Nasional Tahun 2020 (Rp/Kg)
No Waktu
Time Medium II (PIHPS) Medium (BULOG) Jenis Terpilih (BPS)
Selected Type (BPS) 1 Januari
January
11.700 10.225 11.478
2 Februari February
11.700 10.248 11.520
3 Maret
March
11.700 10.140 11.501
4 April April
11.750 10.030 11.540
5 Mei
May
11.750 10.036 11.499
6 Juni June
11.700 10.016 11.476
7 Juli July
11.650 10.001 11.429
8 Agustus August
11.650 10.022 11.393
9 September September
11.650 10.030 11.391
The pattern of stock movement at PIBC during 2020 has a downward trend with the end of the year stock position being lower than the stock position at the beginning of the year. In December 2020 there was a signifi cant increase in stock due to an increase in supply but it was not followed by a comparable expenditure, however, the stock level at the end of 2020 still could not exceed the stock level at the beginning of 2020. Such conditions are one of the factors that maintain stability prices on PIBC during the end of 2020.
Infl ow, Outfl ow and Final Stock of PIBC in 2020 (Ton)
At the retail level in 2020, BULOG and BPS data show an average decline in 2020 compared to the average in 2019. Only PIHPS data shows an average increase in prices in 2020 compared to 2019. Retail rice price conditions are similar with conditions at the wholesale level where prices at the end of 2020 were lower than prices at the beginning of 2020 as a result of the weakening of people's purchasing power which forced traders to lower prices so that the turnover of goods was maintained.
National Rice Retail Price Development in 2020 (Rp/Kg)
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04
No Waktu
Time Medium II (PIHPS) Medium (BULOG) Jenis Terpilih (BPS)
Selected Type (BPS) 10 Oktober
October
11.650 10.030 11.442
11 November November
11.650 10.049 11.385
12 Desember December
11.650 10.017 11.384
Rata-rata Tahun 2020 Average in 2020
11.683 10.070 11.453
Rata-rata Tahun 2019 Average in 2019
11.642 10.133 11.577
2020 thd 2019 2020 toward 2019
+0,36% -0,62 -1,07
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS).
Source: Central Agency on Statistics (BPS).
Proyeksi Harga Beras Eceran Tahun 2020 (Rp/Kg)
Sumber: PIHPS, BPS, BULOG.
Source: PIHPS, BPS, BULOG.
Di tingkat global, World Bank (WB) melaporkan secara umum bahwa harga beras di eksportir besar Asia Tenggara yakni Thailand pada TW III 2020 dalam tren menurun dibanding TW II 2020 sedangkan Vietnam mengalami kenaikan secara rata-rata.
Harga beras broken 5% di Thailand pada bulan September 2020 berada pada level USD507/ton, sedangkan di Vietnam harga beras broken 5% mencatatkan harga tertinggi selama 2020 pada bulan yang sama di tingkat USD463/ton. Sebagai informasi pasokan, masa panen utama untuk Thailand berlangsung pada bulan November-Desember di bagian utara Thailand dan bulan Maret-Mei di bagian Selatan. Sedangkan untuk Vietnam masa panen utama berlangsung pada bulan Mei-September.
Perkembangan Harga Beras di Thailand dan Vietnam Tahun 2020 (USD/ton, FOB)
No Waktu
Time Thailand 5% Thailand 25% Thailand 100% Vietnam 5%
1 Januari
January
451 440 426 349
2 Februari
February
450 442 426 357
Rice Retail Price Projection in 2020 (Rp/Kg)
At the global level, the World Bank (WB) reports in general that the price of rice in the major Southeast Asian exporters, namely Thailand, in Q3 2020 is on a downward trend compared to Q2 2020, while Vietnam has increased on average. The price of 5% broken rice in Thailand in September 2020 was at the level of USD507/ton, while in Vietnam the price of 5% broken rice recorded the highest price in 2020 in the same month at USD463/
ton. In terms of supply, the main harvest season for Thailand takes place in November-December in the northern part of Thailand and March-May in the southern part. As for Vietnam, the main harvest period takes place in May-September.
Rice Price Development in Thailand and Vietnam in 2020 (USD/ton, FOB)
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No Waktu
Time Thailand 5% Thailand 25% Thailand 100% Vietnam 5%
3 Maret
March
494 477 470 373
4 April 564 536 544 407
5 Mei
May
510 494 493 438
6 Juni
June
520 501 494 449
7 Juli
July
480 467 460 444
8 Agustus
August
505 486 481 449
9 September 507 488 483 463
10 Oktober
October
471 463 455 459
11 November 489 480 468 470
12 Desember
December
520 508 497 477
Rata-rata tahun 2020 Average in 2020
497 482 475 428
Rata-rata tahun 2019 Average in 2019
418 410 393 352
2020 thd 2019 2020 toward 2019
+18,84% +17,40% +20,62% +21,62%
Sumber: Bank Dunia.
Source: World Bank.
Pergerakan Harga Beras di Thailand dan Vietnam Tahun 2020 (USD/Ton, FOB)
Sumber: Bank Dunia, diolah.
Source: World Bank, processed.