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Perspektif Perekonomian Global
Di tahun 2020, Pertumbuhan ekonomi global, secara keseluruhan mengalami penurunan akibat pandemi COVID-19. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia pada tahun 2020 berdasarkan proyeksi International Monetary Fund (IMF) akan menurun di angka -4,9%. Angka tersebut lebih rendah 1,9% jika dibandingkan dengan proyeksi pada triwulan I 2020 yang memperkirakan pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) global mengalami kontraksi 3%. Pemberlakuan social distancing dan lockdown banyak mengakibatkan negara di dunia mengalami disrupsi di dalam perekonomian. Investasi swasta cenderung tertahan karena perusahaan cenderung menunda belanja modal di tengah ketidakpastian.
Seperti dikutip dari Kajian Stabilitas Keuangan No. 35 yang dirilis oleh Bank Indonesia, di sisi moneter, stimulus dilakukan bank sentral di banyak negara dengan melakukan penurunan suku bunga kebijakan dan injeksi likuiditas. Pelonggaran moneter juga dilakukan dengan kebijakan Quantitative Easing (QE) dalam jumlah besar melalui berbagai instrumen, seperti pembelian Obligasi Pemerintah, penurunan Giro Wajib Minimum, dan Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Di sisi fiskal, stimulus dialokasikan oleh otoritas di banyak negara untuk memitigasi risiko dampak pandemi COVID-19 dan mendorong pemulihan ekonomi.
Global Economic Perspective
In 2020, the overall global economic growth experienced a decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the projection of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the global economic growth in 2020 would decline at -4.9%. The figure was 1.9%
lower when compared to the projection in the first quarter of 2020, which estimated the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would experience contraction by 3%. The implementation of social distancing and lockdown has resulted in many countries worldwide experiencing disruption in the economy. Private investment inclined to be restrained since companies tend to delay capital expenditures in the midst of uncertainties.
As quoted from the Financial Stability Study No. 35 released by Bank Indonesia, on the monetary side, central banks in many countries have implemented stimulus by reducing policy interest rates and injecting liquidity. Monetary easing was also carried out by means of a large Quantitative Easing (QE) policy through various instruments, such as the purchase of government bonds, a purchase in the Government Bonds, and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). On the fiscal side, stimulus was allocated by authorities in many countries to mitigate the risk of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic recovery.
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Stimulus fiskal ditempuh antara lain melalui peningkatan anggaran kesehatan, peningkatan dan perluasan jaring pengaman sosial serta dukungan dunia usaha termasuk relaksasi perpajakan, serta penyiapan anggaran program pemulihan ekonomi.
Pengaruh pandemi COVID-19 yang membatasi aktivitas ekonomi di berbagai negara menyebabkan kontraksi perekonomian global. Pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan I dan triwulan II 2020 di banyak negara maju dan berkembang mengalami kontraksi yang tajam akibat pembatasan mobilitas masyarakat dalam rangka memitigasi penyebaran pandemi COVID-19. Kontraksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global didorong oleh permintaan yang lemah, ekspektasi pelaku ekonomi yang masih rendah, serta permintaan ekspor yang tertahan. Namun demikian, realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di beberapa negara pada triwulan II 2020 lebih baik dari prakiraan sebelumnya, ditopang oleh stimulus kebijakan fiskal untuk mendorong konsumsi dan investasi.
Perkembangan terkini mengindikasikan mulai terlihatnya perbaikan ekonomi di beberapa negara, khususnya di Tiongkok, didorong berkurangnya dampak penyebaran pandemi COVID-19 dan besarnya stimulus kebijakan fiskal.
Analisa Perekonomian Nasional
Sejalan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang mengalami penurunan, pada tahun 2020 Indonesia resmi mengalami resesi karena dampak pandemi COVID-19. Penyebaran COVID-19 telah mengubah banyak rencana dan situasi perekonomian makro maupun mikro. Setelah dua kuartal berturut-turut mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi negatif sehingga masuk jurang resesi, di kuartal IV-2020 ekonomi Indonesia diprediksi masih kontraksi. Data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal I-2020 sebesar 2,97%, kuartal II-2020, -5,32% year on year (yoy), dan kuartal III- 2020 yakni -3,49% yoy. Sementara, outlook pemerintah ekonomi di sepanjang 2020 diharapkan bisa mencapai -1,7% hingga -0,6%. Dampak dari minusnya pertumbuhan ekonomi ini, salah satunya adalah peningkatan angka pengangguran dan penduduk miskin. Salah satu hal penting yang harus segera diselesaikan adalah besarnya angka pengangguran akibat PHK selama masa pandemi COVID-19.
Lemahnya konsumsi rumah tangga serta investasi yang terjadi hingga kuartal III menyebabkan pertumbuhan positif pada kuartal IV akan sulit dicapai. Meskipun penyerapan anggaran Program Pemulihan Ekonomi (PEN) cenderung meningkat pada kuartal III-2020 dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya, namun aktivitas perekonomian baik dari sisi konsumsi dan produksi cenderung belum pulih signifikan. Ketidakjelasan kondisi ekonomi mempengaruhi keputusan konsumen khususnya masyarakat berpendapatan tinggi yang masih menahan belanja.
Fiscal stimulus was pursued, among others, by increasing the health budget, increasing and expanding social safety nets as well as support from the business world, including tax relaxation, as well as budget preparation for economic recovery programs.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has limited economic activities in many countries, has led to the contraction in global economy. Economic growth in the 1st quarter and 2nd quarter of 2020 in many developed and developing countries experienced strong contraction due to the restrictions on community mobility in order to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The contraction in global economic growth was driven by the weak demand, low expectations of economic players, as well as restrained export demand. However, the realization of economic growth in several countries in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was better than previously predicted, supported by fiscal policy stimulus to boost consumption and investment.
Recent developments indicated that the global economy has started to show signs of improvements in several countries, particularly in China, driven by the reduced impact of the spread of COVID-19 pandemic as well as the magnitude of fiscal policy stimulus.
National Economic Analysis
In line with the declining global economic growth, in 2020 Indonesia has formally experienced recession due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The spread of COVID-19 has changed many macro and micro economic plans and circumstances.
After two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, which led to recession, in the 4th quarter of 2020, the national economy was predicted to continue experiencing contraction.
Data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia recorded that the realization of economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 was 2.97%, the second quarter of 2020, -5.32% year on year (yoy), and the third quarter of 2020 was -3.49% (yoy). Meanwhile, the government’s economic outlook throughout 2020 was expected to achieve -1.7% to -0.6%. The impact of the negative economic growth, one of which has led to the increase in the number of unemployment and the poor. One of the important things to be resolved immediately was the high unemployment rate due to layoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The low household consumption and investment, which occurred until the third quarter has made it difficult to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter. Although the budget absorption of the economic recovery program (PEN) inclined to increase in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter, however economic activities, both in terms of consumption and production, have not recovered significantly. The unclear economic conditions have affected consumer decisions, especially those with high income who were still holding back on spending.
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Analisa dan Pembahasan Manajemen Management Discussion and Analysis
Hal tersebut terindikasi juga dari sebagian besar komponen konsumsi termasuk konsumsi kebutuhan pokok seperti makanan dan minuman, pakaian, alas kaki, dan jasa perawatan masih terkontraksi. Bahkan konsumsi kebutuhan tersier seperti restoran, hotel, transportasi dan komunikasi juga masih mencatatkan kontraksi yang cukup dalam.
Meski demikian, Pemerintah menyatakan perekonomian Indonesia akan berangsur membaik di tahun 2021. Dengan adanya titik terang pelaksanaan vaksinasi COVID-19, hal ini turut membawa harapan bahwa perekonomian pada 2021 akan lebih baik, seiring terkendalinya penyebaran virus corona. Meskipun pemberlakuan protokol kesehatan tetap akan dilakukan setelah vaksin diberikan kepada seluruh masyarakat, diharapkan pelaku investasi dan perusahaan lebih tenang dalam melakukan ekspansi.
Selain itu, Bank Indonesia juga mengeluarkan bauran kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran untuk memperkuat stabilitas makroekonomi, meredam volatilitas di pasar valas dan pasar keuangan, serta mendukung ketahanan dan fungsi intermediasi perbankan. Merespon penurunan suku bunga kebijakan serta kondisi likuiditas perbankan, Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS) menetapkan penurunan tingkat bunga penjaminan. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) juga mengeluarkan berbagai kebijakan yang bersifat pre-emptive baik di sektor perbankan, pasar modal, dan Industri Keuangan Non-Bank (IKNB) untuk memberikan ruang bagi masyarakat dan lembaga jasa keuangan yang terdampak pandemi COVID-19 secara langsung maupun tidak langsung.
Analisis Sektor Industri
Seperti dikutip dari kajian yang dirilis Bank Indonesia bertajuk Perkembangan Properti Komersial menyatakan bahwa pertumbuhan permintaan properti komersial pada triwulan IV-2020 menunjukkan indikasi penurunan. Indeks Permintaan Properti Komersial tercatat -0,05% (yoy), lebih rendah dari 0,05% pada triwulan III 2020 dan 0,52% (yoy) pada triwulan IV 2019. Berdasarkan segmen, penurunan terjadi pada kategori sewa khususnya segmen perkantoran sewa dan ritel sewa serta penurunan pada kategori jual khususnya strata dan lahan industri.
Penurunan tersebut disebabkan oleh permintaan pada kategori sewa yang masih mengalami kontraksi, terutama karena penurunan permintaan perkantoran sewa dan ritel sewa sejalan dengan penerapan Work From Home (WFH) dan masih belum normalnya jam operasional pusat perbelanjaan akibat pemberlakuan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) di triwulan IV 2020. Sementara perlambatan pada kategori jual, terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya kinerja permintaan perkantoran strata karena pasar yang jenuh dan investor yang bersifat wait and see.
This was also indicated by most of the components of consumption including consumption of basic needs such as food and beverages, clothing, footwear, and maintenance services, which were still experiencing contraction. Even the consumption of tertiary needs such as restaurants, hotels, transportation and communication also recorded a relatively deep contraction.
However, the Government stated that the national economy shall gradually improve in 2021. With the shed of light through the implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination, which also brought hope of a better economic conditions in 2021 along with the controlled spread of the corona virus. Despite the continued implementation of health protocol after the vaccine has been provided to the entire community, it is expected that investors and companies would be more settled in performing expansion.
In addition, Bank Indonesia also issued a mix of monetary, macro prudential and payment system policies to strengthen macroeconomic stability, reduce volatility in the foreign exchange and financial markets, as well as support resilience and the banking intermediation function. Responding to the decline in policy interest rates and the condition of banking liquidity, the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) determined a reduction in the guarantee interest rate. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has also issued various pre-emptive policies in the banking sector, capital market, and the Non-Bank Financial Industry (IKNB) to provide space for the public and financial service institutions directly or indirectly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Industry Sector Analysis
As quoted from a study released by Bank Indonesia titled Commercial Property Development, it was stated that the growth in demand for commercial property in the fourth quarter of 2020 showed an indication of a decline. The Commercial Property Demand Index was recorded at -0.05% (yoy), lower than 0.05% in the third quarter of 2020 and 0.52% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2019. By segment, the decline occurred in the rental category, particularly in the rental office and retail segments, as well as a decline in the selling category, especially for strata and industrial land.
The decline was due to contracting demand in the rental category, mainly due to a decline in demand for rental offices and retail rentals in line with the implementation of Work From Home (WFH) and still non-normal operating hours of shopping centers due to the implementation of Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) in the fourth quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, the slowdown in the sales category was mainly due to the declining performance of strata office demand due to a saturated market and investors who preferred to wait and see.
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On the supply side, the growth in supply of commercial property was relatively steady. The Commercial Property Supply Index for the fourth quarter of 2020 recorded a growth at 0.00%, stagnant compared to the growth in the third quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2019. In the selling category, there was supply stagnation, especially for the warehousing complex segment, while in the rental category there was a slowdown, especially in the convention hall segment.
Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Commercial Property Price Index grew slower on an annual basis. On an annual basis, the Commercial Property Price Index only grew 0.12% (yoy), relatively a slow-down from the third quarter of 2020 which was recorded at 0.26% (yoy), as well as in the fourth quarter of the previous year which was recorded at 0.32%.
The slowdown in prices was due to a decline in property price growth in the rental category and a slowdown in price growth in the selling category.
Dari sisi pasokan, pertumbuhan pasokan properti komersial relatif tetap. Indeks Pasokan Properti Komersial triwulan IV 2020 tercatat tumbuh 0,00%, stagnan baik dibandingkan pertumbuhan pada triwulan III 2020 maupun triwulan IV 2019.
Pada kategori jual terjadi stagnasi pasokan terutama untuk segmen kompleks pergudangan, sedangkan pada kategori sewa terjadi perlambatan terutama pada segmen convention hall.
Sementara itu, pada kuartal IV 2020, Indeks Harga Properti Komersial secara tahunan tumbuh melambat. Secara tahunan, Indeks Harga Properti Komersial hanya tumbuh 0,12% (yoy), relatif melambat dari kuartal III tahun 2020 yang tercatat sebesar 0,26% (yoy), maupun di kuartal IV tahun sebelumnya yang tercatat sebesar 0,32%. Perlambatan harga tersebut disebabkan oleh penurunan pertumbuhan harga properti kategori sewa dan perlambatan pertumbuhan harga pada kategori jual.
40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0
1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20
(%, yoy) (%, yoy)
0.52
0.05 -0.05 Grafik 1: Pertumbuhan Tahunan Indeks Demand Properti Komersial (% yoy)
chart 1: annual growth of commercial Property Demand index (% yoy)
2017
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* IV
2018 2019 2020
Perkantoran
Office Hotel Warehouse Complex Ritel
Retail Lahan Industri Industrial Land Apartemen
Apartment Convention Hall Indeks Demand (Sb Kanan)
Demand Index (Right)
Sumber: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia
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Analisa dan Pembahasan Manajemen Management Discussion and Analysis
(%, qtq) (%, qtq)
0.03 0.01 0.13
Grafik 2: Pertumbuhan Triwulanan Indeks Demand Properti Komersial (% qtq) chart 2: Quarterly growth of commercial Property Demand index (% qtq)
2017
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* IV
2018 2019 2020
Perkantoran
Office Hotel Warehouse Complex Ritel
Retail Lahan Industri Industrial Land Apartemen
Apartment Convention Hall Indeks Demand (Sb Kanan)
Demand Index (Right) 60.0
40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
Sumber: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia
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