F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 10.12.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 06.12.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 28th November, 2019 – 04th December, 2019 has been 165% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 464% in North West India & by 238% in South Peninsula but lower than the LPA by 94% in Central India and by 63% in East & North East India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post monsoon season i.e. 1st October, 2019 to 04th December, 2019 has been by 34% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 93% in North West India, by 69% in Central India and by 25% in South Peninsula but lower than the LPA by 6% in East & North East India.
For post monsoon season. 1st October, 2019 to 04th December, 2019 out of 36 met sub- divisions, 23 met sub-divisions constituting 65% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 17% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 07 met sub-divisions constituting 18% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 120 major reservoirs as on 05th December, 2019 has been 145.55BCM as against 100.22 BCM on 05.12.2018 (last year) and 106.30 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 145% of last year’s storage and 137% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 66% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 06.12.2019. Area sown under all rabi crops taken ogether has been reported 418.47 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 413.36 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 05.12.2019 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 175.94 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 165.89 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
As per initial reports received from states, in 2019-20, the area sown under Rabi Onion upto end of November, 2019 is 2.26 Lakh Ha. , vis-a-vis 1.84 Lakh Ha. in corresponding period of previous year 2018-19.
1. Post Monsoon Season (Oct. – Dec.) during the week ending 04th December, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (28th November, 2019 to 04th December, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 16 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub- divisions and no rain in 05 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st October, 2019 to 04th December, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 07 sub- divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Oct., 2019 to 04th December 2019
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 05th Dec., 2019 to 03rd Dec., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (04.12.2019) Cumulative (01.10.19 to 04.12.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 11.8 2.1 464 LE 69.6 36.0 93 LE
Central India 0.2 2.6 -94 LD 119.0 70.5 69 LE
South Peninsular India 34.2 10.1 238 LE 311.8 249.4 25 E East & North-East India 1.3 3.4 -63 LD 145.4 155.1 -6 N
Country as a whole 10.6 4.0 165 LE 145.9 108.5 34 E
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 03 DEC
2014
02 DEC 2015
07 DEC 2016
06 DEC 2017
05 DEC 2018
04 DEC 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 01 10 11
- 06 05 11
03 01 08 12
01 07 12 20
00 01 05 06
11 12 06 29 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
10 - 15 00 25
07 - 18 00 25
10 14 - 00 24
04 12 - 00 16
09 21 - 00 30
06 01 - 00 07
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 34% (-) 23% (-) 44% (-) 10% (-) 49% 34%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 05 DEC 06 DEC 07 DEC 08 DEC 09 DEC 10 DEC 11 DEC 1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D D D D D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D D D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D D D D D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D D D D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D
7 ODISHA D D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL
8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND D D D D D D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D ISOL
14 PUNJAB D D D D D D ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D D D ISOL ISOL
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR D D D D D ISOL SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D ISOL
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D ISOL
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D ISOL D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D ISOL D D D D
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA D D ISOL D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT● SCT● SCT D ISOL SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 05.12.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs decreased to 145.55 BCM from the previous week’s level of 148.11 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 100.22 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 106.30 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
85 87
145 143
137 136
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 59% on 05/12/2018, 63% on 05/12/2017, 65% on 05/12/2016 and 51% on 05/12/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 116 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 0 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 2 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50% and 2 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 30.11.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17604 5208 1773 5186 2567
Estimated Requirement during Nov., 2019 3811 1603 366 982 559 Cumulative Receipt upto 30.11.2019 5913 2363 400 1810 846 Cumulative Availability upto 30.11.2019 6278 3740 777 3079 986
Cumulative Sales upto 30.11.2019 5778 2716 483 1861 868
Closing Stock as on 30.11.2019 500 1024 294 1218 118
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported for any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6
. All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 06.12.2019
Table: 6.1
7.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 06.12.2019
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 06.12.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Haryana 40.00 42.93 39.09
Kerala 2.50 0.87 0.55
Maharashtra 6.00 0.41 0.75
Punjab 114.00 108.73 113.16
Tamil Nadu 8.00 0.29 1.21
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 13.67 3.82
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.07 2.89
All-India 416.00 175.94 165.89
