F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 14.10.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 11.10.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 03rd October, 2019 – 09th October, 2019 has been 14% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 23% in North West India but lower than the LPA by 36% in East & North East India, by 12% in Central India and by 4%
in South Peninsula.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post monsoon season i.e. 1st October, 2019 to 09th October, 2019 has been equal to Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 103% in North West India & by 15% in Central India but lower than the LPA by 28% in East &
North East India and by 12% in South Peninsula.
For post monsoon season. 1st October, 2019 to 09th October, 2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 12 met sub-divisions constituting 40% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 11 met sub-divisions constituting 34% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 13 met sub-divisions constituting 26% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 120 major reservoirs as on 10th October, 2019 has been 151.90 BCM as against 125.23 BCM on 10.10.2018 (last year) and 122.75 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 121% of last year’s storage and nearly 124% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 11.10.2019 for 2018-19 is 443.31 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 381.03 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. The procurement of wheat as on 05.07.2019 for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2019-20 was 341.33 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 353.69 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2018-19.
1. Post Monsoon Season (Oct. – Dec.) during the week ending 09th October, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (03rd October, 2019 to 09th October, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 8 met sub-divisions, normal in 11 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 17 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st October, 2019 to 09th October, 2019) Rainfall was excess in 12 met sub- divisions, normal in 11 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Oct, 2019 to 09th Oct., 2019
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 11th Oct., 2019 to 15th Oct., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-III
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (09.10.2019) Cumulative (01.10.19 to 09.10.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 9.1 7.4 23 E 18.5 9.1 103 LE
Central India 18.0 20.5 -12 N 30.5 26.5 15 N
South Peninsular India 38.3 39.9 -4 N 46.6 52.9 -12 N East & North-East India 32.6 50.6 -36 D 46.2 64.5 -28 D
Country as a whole 21.6 25.1 -14 N 32.5 32.4 0 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 08 OCT
2014
07 OCT 2015
12 OCT 2016
11 OCT 2017
10 OCT 2018
09 OCT 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 02 03 05
- 10 01 11
- 13 05 18
06 07 06 19
01 04 00 05
09 03 11 23 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
07 - 23 01 31
03 - 12 10 25
08 - 10 00 18
06 06 - 05 17
03 28 - 00 31
10 03 - 00 13
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 65 (-) 44% 1% 5% (-) 66% 0%
Table: 1.1
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 10 OCT 11 OCT 12 OCT 13 OCT 14 OCT 15 OCT 16 OCT
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS SCT ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS TS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT● TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS● TS FWS TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT TS ISOL TS ISOL D D D ISOL
7 ODISHA SCT● TS SCT TS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL
8 JHARKHAND ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D D D D
9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL TS D D D D ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D D
14 PUNJAB D D D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL D D D D D D
17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL ISOL D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA FWS● TS SCT● TS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS● TS SCT● TS SCT● TS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL SCT TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS● TS FWS TS SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT
29 TELANGANA SCT● TS SCT TS SCT SCT ISOL SCT FWS
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT TS SCT TS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL● TS SCT● TS SCT● ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA FWS● TS FWS TS FWS SCT SCT FWS SCT
34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA FWS● TS FWS● TS FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS TS FWS● TS FWS● FWS SCT SCT WS
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Source: IMD
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 10.10.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs increased to 151.90 BCM from the previous week’s level of 151.09 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 125.23 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 122.75 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 113 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
89 89
121 118
124 123
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 74% on 10/10/2018, 68% on 10/10/2017, 74% on 10/10/2016 and 60% on 10/10/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 113 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 2 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 1 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50% and 4 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage. Out of these, 1 reservoir was having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 10.10.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17357 5210 1778 5188 2567
Estimated Requirement during Oct., 2019 3480 1345 387 943 534
Cumulative Receipt upto 10.10.2019 754 247 52 223 96
Cumulative Availability upto 10.10.2019 1119 1624 429 1492 236
Cumulative Sales upto 10.10.2019 555 133 29 132 91
Closing Stock as on 10.10.2019 564 1491 400 1360 145
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL). However, incidence of Stem borer has been reported at low to moderate level on Paddy crop in Agra district of Uttar Pradesh.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 11.10.2019
Table: 6.1
(lakh tonnes)
7.
Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05.07.2019
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 11.10.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 52.54 48.06 39.99
Telangana 45.00 51.86 36.18
Bihar 8.00 9.49 7.93
Chhattisgarh 40.00 39.71 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.42 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 1.53 1.43
Kerala 3.70 4.65 3.25
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 5.50 5.80 1.79
Odisha 37.00 43.83 32.87
Punjab 114.00 113.34 118.39
Tamil Nadu 14.80 12.94 9.96
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 32.33 28.75
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.62 0.38
West Bengal 31.00 19.79 16.48
All-India 448.04 443.31 381.03
State Target in marketing
season 2019-20 (April - March)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.07.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Bihar 2.00 0.03 0.15
Haryana 85.00 93.20 87.37
Madhya Pradesh 75.00 67.25 69.67
Punjab 125.00 129.12 126.62
Rajasthan 17.00 14.11 15.32
Uttar Pradesh 50.00 37.00 52.94
Uttrakhand 2.00 0.42 1.10
All-India 357.00 341.33 353.69
Annex-III Rainfall for next two weeks
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(03 to 09 October, 2019) and Week 2 (10 to 16 October, 2019)
Rainfall for week 1: (03 to 09 October, 2019)
Due to likely formation of anti-cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan at 1.5 km above mean sea level around 6thOctober, the withdrawal of southwest monsoon is likely to commence from northwest India around 10thOctober, 2019.
Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood at lower levels and likely its eastwards movement, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely to occur over Bihar during next two days and decrease significantly thereafter.
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall very likely to occur over northeastern states during week 1. Isolated heavy falls is also likely over the region during the second half of week 1.
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall along with thunderstorm accompanied with lightning very likely to occur East India (Odisha, West Bengal &
Sikkim, Bihar and Jharkhand) during most days of week 1.
Due to circulation & trough over south Peninsular India, light/moderate Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall very likely to occur over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh during week 1. However, intensity of rainfall is very likely to increase during its second half over most of the above mentioned regions.
Light isolated rainfall is very likely over remaining parts of the country during most days of week 1 except West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh, where no rain likely to occur during the second half of the week 1.
Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over Karnataka, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states. It is likely to be below normal to normal over remaining parts of the country during week 1.
Rainfall for week 2: (10 to 16 October, 2019)
During week 2, rainfall activity is likely to confine over south Peninsula with normal to above normal rainfall activity over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and most parts of northeastern states. It is likely to be below normal over remaining parts of the country.
Cyclogenesis:
No cyclogenesis expected over North Indian Ocean during next two weeks.
Source: IMD
