F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 17.05.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 13.05.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 06 May 2021 to 12 May 2021, has been 37% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 294% in Central India, - Higher by 42% in South Peninsula.
- Lower by 04% in North West India, - Lower by 02% in East & North East India.
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 12 May 2021, has been 19%
lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 43% in Central India, - Higher by 12% in South Peninsula,
- Lower by 38% in East & North East India, - Lower by 25% in North West India.
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 33% of total area, - Normal in 10 MET sub-division constituting 25% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 42% of total area
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 13 May 2021 was 53.66 BCM, which is:
- 81% of last year’s storage on the same day (13 May 2020) of 66.16 BCM.
- 120% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 44.66 BCM.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 648.41 lakh hectares as compared to 639.88 lakh hectares during 2019-20.
Procurement of Wheat has recently started in fresh marketing season RMS 2021-22 as on 13.05.2021 353.99 Lakh MT has been procured benefitting 36,19,520 farmers whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 268.91 LMT.
As on 13 May 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 497.24 lakh MT as compared to 458.73 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 12 May, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (06 May to 12 May 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 08 sub-divisions and no rain in 02 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 12 May 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13 met sub-divisions, normal in 10 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions.
(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (12.05.2021) Cumulative (01.03.21 to 12.05.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 8.2 8.5 -4 N 69.2 92.8 -25 D
Central 15.4 3.9 294 LE 33.8 23.7 43 E
South Peninsula 20.7 14.6 42 E 79.9 71.4 12 N
East & North-East 37.3 38.1 -2 N 156.7 253.7 -38 D
Country as a whole 17.7 12.9 37 E 73.3 91.0 -19 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 12 May 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
11 MAY 2016
10 MAY 2017
09 MAY 2018
15 MAY 2019
13 MAY 2020
12 MAY 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 04 13 17
01 04 10 15
01 07 11 19
04 02 06 12
18 04 07 29
16 04 06 26 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
14 - 05 00 19
12 09 - 00 21
14 03 - 00 17
17 07 - 00 24
07 00 - 00 07
06 02 - 02 10
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 12% 0% (-) 13% (-) 22% 19% (-) 19%
Source: IMD
`
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 13 May 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 53.66 BCM from the previous week’s level of 56.04 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 66.16 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 44.66 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 103 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 15 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 05 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 07 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 31 81 120
Last Week 32 81 119
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 38% on 13.05.2020, 23% on 13.05.2019, 22% on 13.05.2018 and 25% on 13.05.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 12.05.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152
Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during May 2021 2643 1087 297 827 378
Cumulative Receipt upto 12.05.2021 2382 358 177 926 412
Cumulative Availability upto 12.05.2021 2723 489 274 1543 564
Cumulative Sales upto 12.05.2021 2351 245 133 762 412
Closing Stock as on 12.05.2021 372 244 141 781 152
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds:
Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is a surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 11 May, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Paddy, Bajra, Maize and Cotton.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Barley, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Urad, Masur, Copra Groundnut, Safflower, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower and Jute.
VII. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (2nd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (Final Est.) Table 7.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020-21
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019-20
Wheat 303.28 315.77 104.1 313.57 2.20
Rice 41.78 45.32 108.5 46.49 -1.17
Jowar 33.40 25.55 76.5 30.69 -5.14
Maize 17.37 16.75 96.5 20.16 -3.41
Barley 6.38 6.92 108.5 5.90 1.02
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.22 86.1 56.74 -7.52
Total Cereals 402.20 410.31 102.0 416.81 -6.50
Gram 92.77 107.15 115.5 96.99 10.16
Urad 8.93 9.06 101.4 8.32 0.74
Moong 9.86 9.29 94.3 10.59 -1.30
Lentil 14.24 14.98 105.2 13.03 1.95
Others 19.09 17.61 92.2 15.60 2.01
Total Pulses 144.88 158.09 109.1 144.52 13.57
Total Foodgrains 547.07 568.40 103.9 561.33 7.07
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 68.53 115.3 68.56 -0.03
Groundnut 7.24 7.34 101.4 6.65 0.69
Safflower 1.15 0.49 42.4 0.52 -0.03
Sunflower 2.37 1.32 55.7 1.03 0.29
Linseed 2.74 2.34 85.2 1.80 0.54
Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.01 109.7 78.56 1.46
All- Crops 620.01 648.41 104.6 639.88 8.53
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 13
thMay, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 13. 05. 2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 37.61 41.11
Telangana 105.00 45.63 57.57
Bihar 30.00 23.40 13.41
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 4.42 4.33
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 9.07 8.40
Odisha 48.00 42.83 35.86
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 21.10 15.08
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 26.80 15.55 14.68
All-India 637.97 497.24 458.73
Source: Food &PD Table 8.2: Wheat
(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during RMS 2020-21 (Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 13. 05. 2021
In Marketing season 2021-2022
In Marketing season 2020-2021
Punjab 130.00 131.14 118.40
Haryana 80.00 81.08 61.25
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 23.21 12.76
Madhya Pradesh 135.00 103.71 70.96
Rajasthan 22.00 12.77 5.03
Uttarakhand 2.20 1.00 0.23
All-India 427.36 353.99 268.91
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 13 May – 19 May, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 13 MAY 14 MAY 15 MAY 16 MAY 17 MAY 18 MAY 19 MAY
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT L FWS FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS L● FWS L SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS L● FWS L SCT L SCT SCT SCT SCT
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS L FWS L SCT L SCT ISOL SCT SCT 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS L● WS L FWS L SCT SCT SCT SCT
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS L● FWS L● SCT L ISOL ISOL ISOL D
7 ODISHA FWS L● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
8 JHARKHAND FWS L SCT L SCT L ISOL ISOL D D
9 BIHAR SCT L ISOL ISOL D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT L ISOL D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT L ISOL D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND WS L #● SCT L ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI FWS L # ISOL L D D ISOL D D
14 PUNJAB FWS L # ISOL D D ISOL D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS L #● SCT L ISOL ISOL D D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL ISOL D D
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL D T # ISOL L D D ISOL L ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL L D D ISOL L D ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L D D ISOL ISOL L D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L ISOL D D ISOL L D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D ISOL L SCT L SCT L D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D ISOL ISOL L ISOL L FWS● FWS FWS
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL L ISOL L FWS L ● WS●●● WS●●● WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL L ISOL L SCT● FWS L ●● WS●● ISOL ISOL
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL L ISOL SCT L SCT D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D D
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL L ISOL L FWS L ● SCT● SCT L ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L SCT SCT L ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL L ISOL L FWS L ● WS L ● SCT L ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT L ● FWS L ●● WS L ●●● WS L ●● FWS L ● SCT SCT 32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS L ● WS L ●● WS L ●●● WS L ●● WS L ●● FWS FWS 33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL L ISOL L FWS L ● WS L ●● FWS L ● SCT SCT 34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS L ● FWS L ●● WS L ●●● WS L ●● FWS L ● FWS FWS 35 KERALA & MAHE WS L ●● WS L ●●● WS L ●●● WS L ●●● WS L ●● WS WS 36 LAKSHADWEEP WS L ●●● WS L ●●● WS L ●●● WS L ●● WS L FWS FWS
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall/Gust L Thunderstorm with Lightning #Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 13 May – 17 May 2021:
