F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 01.06.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 28.05.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 20 May 2021 to 26 May 2021, has been 94% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 239% in North West India, - Higher by 146% in Central India, - Higher by 117% in South Peninsula.
- Higher by 16% in East & North East India.
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 26 May 2021, has been 12%
higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 132% in Central India, - Higher by 47% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 07% in North West India, - Lower by 24% in East & North East India.
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 24 MET sub-divisions constituting 67% of total area, - Normal in 08 MET sub-division constituting 18% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of total area
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 27 May 2021 was 50.82 BCM, which is:
- 85% of last year’s storage on the same day (27 May 2020) of 59.53 BCM.
- 128% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 39.85 BCM.
As per 3rd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105.4% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 653.64 lakh hectares as compared to 639.88 lakh hectares during 2019-20.
Procurement of Wheat in marketing season RMS 2021-22 is progressing smoothly in procuring states. As on 28.05.2021, over 400.45 LMT has been procured benefitting about 42.36 Lakh farmers whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 353.09 LMT.
As on 28 May 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 524.04 lakh MT as compared to 479.95 7lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 26 May, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (20 May to 26 May 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 27 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 06 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 sub-division. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 26 May 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 24 met sub-divisions, normal in 08 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 04 sub-divisions.
(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (26.05.2021) Cumulative (01.03.21 to 26.05.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 29.2 8.6 239 LE 116.4 109.3 07 N
Central 12.0 4.9 146 LE 77.2 33.3 132 LE
South Peninsula 37.6 17.3 117 LE 157.7 107.1 47 E
East & North-East 52.0 44.9 16 N 257.4 338.6 -24 D
Country as a whole 28.7 14.8 94 LE 133.8 119.8 12 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 26 May 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
25 MAY 2016
24 MAY 2017
23 MAY 2018
29 MAY 2019
27 MAY 2020
26 MAY 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 05 16 21
01 04 13 18
02 06 11 19
01 03 08 12
14 06 10 30
16 08 08 32 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
11 - 04 00 15
11 07 - 00 18
13 04 - 00 17
14 10 - 00 24
05 01 - 00 06
04 00 - 00 06
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 3% (-) 5% (-) 13% (-) 24% 20% 12%
Source: IMD
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1.2 Weather Forecast
Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Maldives-Comorin area, Southwest & East-central Bay of Bengal, most parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of West-central Bay of Bengal on 27thMay, 2021.
Conditions are likely to become favourable for onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala around 31st May 2021.
The Depression (Remnant of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘YAAS’) over south Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand moved northwestwards, weakened into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area and lay centred of today, the 28th May,2021 over Bihar and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh. The system is very likely to move northwestwards and weaken further into a Low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Temperature
No significant change in maximum temperature over most parts of Uttar Pradesh and East India during next 24 hours and rise by 2-4°C thereafter.
No significant change in maximum temperature over rest parts of the country.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 27 May 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 50.82 BCM from the previous week’s level of 52.37 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 59.53 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 39.85 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 110 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 08 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 08 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 29 85 128
Last Week 30 84 123
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 34% on 27.05.2020, 20% on 27.05.2019, 18% on 27.05.2018 and 22% on 27.05.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 27.05.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152
Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 662 2646 Estimated Requirement during May 2021 2643 1087 297 827 378
Cumulative Receipt upto 27.05.2021 3541 693 245 1304 626
Cumulative Availability upto 27.05.2021 3882 824 342 1921 778
Cumulative Sales upto 27.05.2021 3461 516 188 1044 645
Closing Stock as on 27.05.2021 421 308 154 877 133
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose spiraling whitefly is reported at the moderate intensity in Coconut and Arecanut in Tumkur, Mandya, Ramanagara districts of Karnataka. As per information received this was the repeated occurrence of this pest and after the seasonal rainfall the infestation level went down.
V. Seeds:
Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is a surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.
There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd., Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies. Companies.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 26 May, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong and Safflower.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Jawar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
Tomato mandi prices are low in Karnataka, Haryana and Delhi.
VII. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (3rd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (Final Est.) Table 7.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020-21
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019-20
Wheat 303.28 317.60 104.7 313.57 4.0
Rice 41.78 47.76 114.3 46.49 1.3
Jowar 33.40 27.93 83.6 30.69 -2.8
Maize 17.37 17.69 101.9 20.16 -2.5
Barley 6.38 6.09 95.4 5.90 0.2
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 51.71 90.5 56.74 -5.0
Total Cereals 402.20 417.07 103.7 416.81 0.3
Gram 92.77 104.25 112.4 96.99 7.3
Urad 8.93 9.41 105.5 8.32 1.1
Moong 9.86 9.88 100.3 10.59 -0.7
Lentil 14.24 14.61 102.6 13.03 1.6
Others 19.09 18.58 97.4 15.60 3.0
Total Pulses 144.88 156.74 108.2 144.52 12.2
Total Foodgrains 547.07 573.81 104.9 561.33 12.5
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 67.89 114.2 68.56 -0.7
Groundnut 7.24 7.60 104.9 6.65 0.9
Safflower 1.15 0.76 65.7 0.52 0.2
Sunflower 2.37 1.76 74.2 1.03 0.7
Linseed 2.74 1.83 66.9 1.80 0.0
Total Oilseeds 72.94 79.84 109.5 78.56 1.3
All- Crops 620.01 653.64 105.4 639.88 13.8
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 28
thMay, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 28. 05. 2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 44.40 48.04
Telangana 105.00 61.85 68.35
Bihar 30.00 23.40 13.41
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 4.85 4.62
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 9.07 8.56
Odisha 48.00 44.71 37.55
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 21.78 15.53
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 26.80 15.58 14.73
All-India 637.97 524.05 479.95
Source: Food &PD Table 8.2: Wheat
State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2020-21
(Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 28. 05. 2021
In Marketing season 2021-2022
In Marketing season 2020-2021
Punjab 130.00 132.10 126.52
Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 36.55 21.56
Madhya Pradesh 135.00 124.99 118.14
Rajasthan 22.00 18.14 12.11
Uttarakhand 2.20 1.22 0.32
All-India 433.44 400.45 353.09
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 27 May – 02 June, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 27 MAY 28 MAY 29 MAY 30 MAY 31 MAY 01 JUN 02 JUN
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS L● WS L● WS L● WS L FWS L FWS FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS L SCT SCT FWS L FWS L● FWS SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS L● SCT SCT FWS L● WS L● WS FWS
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT L SCT SCT SCT FWS L FWS SCT 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS L●● WS● FWS FWS FWS L● FWS WS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS L●● SCT ISOL SCT L SCT L● ISOL D
7 ODISHA SCT● ISOL ISOL SCT L ISOL L SCT ISOL
8 JHARKHAND WS L●● SCT L SCT L ISOL D SCT ISOL
9 BIHAR WS L●●● WS L●● FWS● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS $●● FWS $●● ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L SCT ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL L ISOL L SCT L FWS ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D ISOL ISOL L ISOL L SCT SCT
14 PUNJAB D D ISOL ISOL L ISOL L SCT SCT
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D ISOL ISOL FWS ISOL
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL D D D ISOL L ISOL L/D ISOL L/D ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL L ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D ISOL D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L D D
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT L● ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL L SCT L SCT L SCT SCT
29 TELANGANA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L SCT L SCT L SCT SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL L● ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L● ISOL SCT
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS L FWS L FWS L WS L WS L SCT SCT
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL L SCT L SCT L ISOL ISOL 34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL L ISOL ISOL SCT L SCT L SCT WS
35 KERALA & MAHE WS L● WS L WS L● WS L● FWS L● WS WS
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS L FWS L WS L WS L WS L FWS SCT
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall/Gust L Thunderstorm with Lightning #Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 28 May – 01 June 2021:
