SUBJECT

F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 31.08.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 27.08.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 19 August 2021 to 25 August 2021, has been 21% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Lower by 28% in Central India.

- Lower by 25% in North West India, - Lower by 16% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 9% in East & North East India,

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 25 August 2021, has been 10%

lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 3% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 13% in Central India.

- Lower by 12% in North West India, - Lower by 11% in East & North East India,

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 12% of total area, - Normal in 19 MET sub-division constituting 52% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 36% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.96 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 26 August 2021 was 108.58 BCM, which is:

- 83% of last year’s storage on the same day (26 August2020) of 130.63 BCM.

- 96% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 113.59 BCM.

 During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 27.08.2021), 1064.04 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 1083.09 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.

 Current Marketing Season RMS 2021-22 has concluded in wheat procuring states and till date (As on 18.08.2021) 433.44 LMT procurement has been done for central pool, (which is all time high), whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 389.93 LMT. About 49.20 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.

 As on 27 August 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 587.14 lakh MT as compared to 511.42 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 129.07 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

MONSOONRAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 25 August, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (19 August to 25 August 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 03 met sub-divisions, normal in 18 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 15 sub-divisions.

(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 25 August 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 04 met sub-divisions, normal in 19 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions.(Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 25 August2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

24 AUG 2016

23 AUG 2017

22 AUG 2018

28 AUG 2019

26 AUG 2020

25 AUG 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 04 22 26

00 05 21 26

00 02 23 25

00 07 22 29

02 10 20 32

00 04 19 23 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

10 - 00 00 10

10 00 - 00 10

11 00 - 00 11

07 00 - 00 07

04 00 - 00 04

13 00 - 00 13

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 2% (-) 6% (-) 7% 1% 8% (-) 10%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (25.08.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 25.08.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 32.5 43.5 -25 D 405.1 459.3 -12 N

Central 45.5 63.0 -28 D 651.6 747.6 -13 N

South Peninsula 34.2 40.7 -16 N 551.7 535.1 3 N

East & North-East 73.9 81.6 -9 N 945.6 1064.3 -11 N

Country as a whole 43.8 55.6 -21 D 603.1 667.7 -10 N

1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1 (26 August – 01 September)

 The monsoon trough at mean sea level runs along the foothills of the Himalayas. In view of the likely formation of a cyclonic circulation over northwest & adjoining west central Bay of Bengal on 27^th August, the eastern end of the monsoon trough is very likely to shift southwards from 27^th August. The western end likely to shift gradually southwards from 28^th August.

 Enhanced rainfall activity likely to continue over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand till 29^th August and reduction thereafter.

 Enhanced rainfall activity likely over south Peninsular India during 28^th -30^th August and reduction thereafter.

 Increase in rainfall activity with isolated likely heavy rainfall over Maharashtra and Gujarat region from 30 Aug to 1 Sept.

 Subdued rainfall activity likely to continue over Northwest India till 28th August and increase thereafter with light/moderate isolated to scattered rainfall over the rest parts of northwest India.

 Overall rainfall activity during the week, is very likely to be near normal.

Week 2 (02 - 08 September)

 The monsoon trough is very likely to be near normal or south of its position during most days of the week.

 There is likely increase in rainfall activity over northwest & central India as compare to week 1.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls very likely over central & adjoining northwest and north Peninsular India during most of the days.

 Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over rest parts of country except northwest India.

 Overall normal to above normal rainfall activity likely over central & adjoining northwest and north Peninsular India; near normal rainfall activity likely over most parts of east & northeast India and below normal rainfall activity likely over most parts of south Peninsular India.

II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 26 August 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.96 BCM, which is about 66.70% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 108.58 BCM from the previous week’s level of 104.82 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 130.63 BCM and average of last 10 year’s storage position of 113.59 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 93 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 19 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 12 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 06 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

In BCM

ALL-INDIA RESERVOIR TREND

(WATER STOCK IN 2021 VS 2020 & AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS)

This Year

Last Year

Avg. of Last Ten Years

Week Ending

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 63 83 96

Last Week 61 96 99

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 76% on 26.08.2020, 75% on 26.08.2019, 66% on 26.08.2018 and 51% on 26.08.2017.

III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 27.08.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex/

NPK

SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152

Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirementduring August 2021 3573 1086 365 1206 484

Cumulative Receipt upto 27.08.2021 11937 3508 918 4618 1994

Cumulative Availability upto27.08.2021 12278 3639 1015 5235 2146

Cumulative Sales upto27.08.2021 12100 3410 892 4782 2003

Closing Stock as on 27.08.2021 178 229 123 453 143

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Mealy bug reported at moderate to severe intensity in 867 hectare of Cassava in Namakkal district of Tamil Nadu.

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds:

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is overall surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.

VI. MandiFunctioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 25 August, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Gram, Moong and Safflower.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Arhar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.

VII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 27-08-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Kharif Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Rice 395.66 388.56 98.2 393.41 -4.85

Jowar 19.52 14.33 73.4 14.57 -0.24

Bajra 73.43 63.12 86.0 67.15 -4.04

Maize 74.68 80.36 107.6 78.73 1.63

Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 170.98 93.1 173.61 -2.63

Total Cereals 579.24 559.54 96.6 567.02 -7.48

Tur 45.64 48.94 107.2 46.98 1.96

Urad 37.96 37.59 99.0 37.61 -0.02

Moong 33.48 34.16 102.0 34.86 -0.70

Kulthi 2.18 0.36 16.4 0.41 -0.05

Others 16.70 14.79 88.6 14.38 0.41

Total Pulses 135.95 135.83 99.9 134.23 1.60

Total Foodgrains 715.20 695.37 97.2 701.25 -5.88

Groundnut 41.70 48.07 115.3 50.44 -2.38

Soyabean 112.88 121.51 107.6 120.56 0.95

Sunflower 1.42 1.44 101.3 1.12 0.32

Sesamum 16.48 12.71 77.1 13.38 -0.67

Nigerseed 2.04 0.57 27.9 1.23 -0.67

Castorseed 8.98 5.14 57.2 5.66 -0.52

Total Oilseeds 183.50 189.54 103.3 192.51 -2.96

Cotton 123.59 117.42 95.0 128.41 -10.99

Sugarcane 47.53 54.70 115.1 53.96 0.74

Jute & Mesta 7.33 7.00 95.5 6.96 0.04

All- Crops 1077.15 1064.04 98.8 1083.09 -19.05

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 27

^th

August, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates

during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 27.08.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.53 53.26

Telangana 105.00 94.56 74.54

Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85

Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07

Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 15.88 12.63 11.57

Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28

Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76

Tamil Nadu 29.00 28.17 19.88

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90

Uttarakhand 6.70 7.18 6.82

West Bengal 26.80 15.84 16.06

All-India 637.97 587.14 511.42

Table 8.2: Wheat

State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022

(Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 18.08.2021

In Marketing season 2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Punjab 130.00 132.22 127.14

Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 35.77

Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.42

Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05

Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.25

Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.39

Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.77

All-India 435.34 433.44 389.93

Source: Food &PD

Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 26 August – 01 September, 2021for 36 Met Sub- Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 26 AUG 27 AUG 28 AUG 29 AUG 30 AUG 31 AUG 01 SEP

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^● WS WS FWS FWS SCT SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^●●● WS WS^● WS^● FWS SCT SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS FWS SCT

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS FWS FWS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS

7 ODISHA FWS^● WS^● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT SCT

8 JHARKHAND FWS FWS WS^● WS^● FWS FWS SCT

9 BIHAR WS^●● FWS^●● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS^●● FWS^● SCT^● SCT SCT FWS SCT

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND SCT^● SCT^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT SCT

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT^● FWS^● FWS FWS ISOL ISOL

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL SCT FWS

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT SCT^● FWS^● FWS WS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT FWS WS^● WS^● WS FWS

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● ISOL SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA FWS FWS FWS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS ISOL FWS

26 VIDARBHA ISOL SCT FWS WS^● WS^● FWS FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT SCT FWS^● WS^● FWS SCT FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM SCT^● SCT SCT^● FWS^● FWS SCT FWS

29 TELANGANA FWS^● FWS WS WS^● WS^● FWS WS

30 RAYALASEEMA SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS^● WS FWS

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^● FWS^● FWS^●● FWS^●●● SCT^●●● ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS FWS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS FWS WS^● FWS SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●●● WS WS

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 27 – 31 August 2021: