SUBJECT

F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi

Dated: 02.12.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 27.11.2020.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 19 November 2020 to 25 November 2020, has been 30%

lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 65% in North West India

- Higher by 42% in East & North East India and - Lower by 70% in South Peninsula,

- Lower by 41% in Central India.

 Cumulative rainfall during Post Monsoon season, 01 October 2020 to 25 November 2020, has been 5% lower than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 18% in Central India and - Lower by 52% in North West India, - Lower by 8% in East & North East India - Lower by 5% in South Peninsula,

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 24% of total area - Normal in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 21% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 18 MET sub-divisions constituting 55% of total area.

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 128 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.13 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 102 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 127.27 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 128 major reservoirs as on 26 November 2020 was 139.35 BCM, which is:

- 94% of last year’s storage on the same day (26 November 2019) of 149.00 BCM.

- 119% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 117.53 BCM

 Rabi sowing as on 27.11.2020, 348.24 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 334.78 lakh ha during 2019-20 during the same period.

 All-India progressive procurement

 As on 27^th November 2020, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 208.18 lakh MT as compared to 175.20 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

POST-MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (October - December) during the week ending 25 November, 2020

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (19 November 2020 to 25 November 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 met sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 17 sub-divisions and no rain in 07 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2020 to 25 November 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 09 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 18 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (25.11.2020) Cumulative (01.10.20 to 25.11.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 5.1 3.1 65 LE 15.7 32.5 -52 D

Central 1.8 3.1 -41 D 79.4 67.3 18 N

South Peninsula 5.1 16.8 -70 LD 224.3 235.4 -5 N

East & North-East 6.4 4.5 42 E 138.7 150.5 -8 N

Country as a whole 4.2 6.0 -30 D 97.7 102.9 -5 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 October to 25 November 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

25 NOV 2015

23 NOV 2016

22 NOV 2017

28 NOV 2018

27 NOV 2019

25 NOV 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 06 04 10

- 04 10 14

01 06 13 20

00 01 05 06

12 09 09 30

02 07 09 18 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

08 - 18 00 26

08 - 14 00 22

05 11 - 00 16

09 21 - 00 30

04 02 - 00 06

11 07 - 00 18

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 25% (-) 42% (-) 10% (-) 49% 29% (-) 5%

Source: IMD

1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks Week-1: 26 Nov. – 02 Dec 2020

 Under the influence of well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh

& adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on today, the 27^th and isolated heavy on 28^th November; fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is also likely over Rayalaseema on 27^th and significant decrease in rainfall thereafter.

 Due to likely formation of a Low Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours. It is likely to concentrate into a Depression during subsequent 24 hours and likely to intensify further thereafter. Under the influence of this system, light to moderate rainfall at most places with Isolated heavy to very heavy falls on 01st December and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls on 02nd & 03rd December, 2020 are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

 No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week. .

 Cumulatively, Eastern parts of southern peninsula (Tamilnadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh), south Chhattisgarh, south Odisha will be active in week 1 (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 26 November to 02 December, 2020 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 03 – 09 December, 2020

 The above normal rainfall activity likely over south peninsula. Due to a fresh Western Disturbance, above normal rain/snow also likely over Western Himalayan Region. Below normal or no rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country.

Minimum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (26 November to 09 December, 2020)

 The Minimum temperature will be below normal over Northwest India in week 1 and it is expected to be above normal over northern and northwest India in week 2.

Cyclogenesis

 There is ‘High’ probability for cyclogenesis over southwest Bay of Bengal, during the second half of Week-1.

 Also there exists a ‘low’ probability for cyclogenesis over east-central Arabian Sea during first half of Week 2, mainly from the remnant of the system emerging from the Bay of Bengal.

 There exists ‘moderate’ probability for cyclogenesis over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea during the middle & later half of Week 2.

II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 26 November 2020)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 128 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.13 BCM, which is about 66.77% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 128 major reservoirs decreased to 139.35 BCM from the previous week’s level of 141.67 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 149.00 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 117.53 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 128 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 121 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage and 07 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 81 94 119

Last Week 83 93 118

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 87% on 26.11.2019, 61% on 26.11.2018, 63% on 26.11.2017 and 66% on 26.11.2016.

III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 27.11.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124

Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Nov. 2020 4141 1607 313 1079 568

Cumulative Receipt upto 27.11.2020 6707 2033 627 1968 822

Cumulative Availability upto 27.11.2020 6938 2485 884 2398 946

Cumulative Sales upto 27.11.2020 6154 2125 516 1727 811

Closing Stock as on 27.11.2020 784 360 368 671 135

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Pink boll worm reported at above ETL in 220 hectare area on Cotton crop in Yavatmal &

Nanded districts of Maharashtra.

 Boll rot reported at Moderate in 20 hectare area on Cotton crop in Yavatmal & Nanded districts of Maharashtra.

 Heliothis reported at above ETL in 18 hectare area on Gram crop in Ratlam district of Madhya Pradesh.

V. Seeds Position:

 Seed position is monitored regularly by Seed Division, DAC&FW through Video Conferencing. Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. As such, there is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintal seeds.

VI. Mandi Arrivals and Price comparison with MSP (on 25 November 2020)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Safflower, Sunflower and Cotton.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, and Jute.

MANDI FUNCTIONING & MANDI ARRIVALS

 Wholesale mandies including Grain mandies and Fruits & Vegetable Mandies of the country has returned to normalcy.

 Government has imposed stock limit for Onion. Limit for wholesale and retail purpose has been decided as 25 metric tones and 2 metric tones respectively.

 Import may be increased due to delayed harvest of Potato in the month of November.

Though sufficient stock for Potato is available for a month and further Early Potato crops has been started in Punjab. Fresh crop of Potato from Punjab and Uttar Pradesh can supplement the stored crop for the next two months, a crunch in stock can be arise from 15th of January to 15th February 2020-21, before the harvest of new crops..

VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 27-11-2020

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2020

% of Normal for

whole season

Last Year 2019

Wheat 303.28 151.58 50.0 150.49 1.09

Rice 41.78 8.18 19.6 8.84 -0.66

Jowar 33.40 18.19 54.5 18.69 -0.50

Maize 17.37 4.76 27.4 5.62 -0.86

Barley 6.38 4.06 63.7 4.23 -0.17

Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 27.39 47.9 28.91 -1.52

Total Cereals 402.20 187.15 46.5 188.24 -1.09

Gram 92.77 69.36 74.8 60.76 8.60

Lentil 14.24 11.47 80.6 10.31 1.16

Peas 8.74 7.70 88.1 6.30 1.40

Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 2.91 136.2 3.18 -0.27

Urad 8.93 2.60 29.1 2.61 -0.01

Moong 9.86 0.63 6.4 0.78 -0.15

Lathyrus 3.98 2.14 53.8 1.74 0.40

Others 4.23 2.64 62.4 2.13 0.51

Total Pulses 144.88 99.45 68.6 87.80 11.65

Total Foodgrains 547.07 286.60 52.4 276.04 10.56

Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 57.44 96.6 53.88 3.56

Groundnut 7.24 1.68 23.2 1.87 -0.19

Safflower 1.15 0.34 29.6 0.23 0.11

Sunflower 2.37 0.46 19.4 0.60 -0.14

Linseed 2.74 1.47 53.6 1.75 -0.28

Total Oilseeds 72.94 61.64 84.5 58.73 2.91

All- Crops 620.01 348.24 56.2 334.78 13.46

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 27

^th

November, 2020

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 27.11.2020

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 42.00 0.55 0.00

Telangana 50.00 9.88 7.17

Bihar 20.00 - -

Chhattisgarh 60.00 - -

Haryana 44.00 37.47 42.88

Kerala 3.25 0.53 0.72

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 0.62 0.00

Maharashtra 12.00 0.12 0.20

Odisha 37.00 0.74 0.00

Punjab 113.00 135.78 108.41

Tamil Nadu 17.00 3.23 0.28

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 12.75 9.49

Uttarakhand 6.70 6.06 5.89

West Bengal 23.80 - -

All-India 501.17 208.18 175.20

Source: FCI

Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 26 November – 02 December, 2020 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 26 NOV 27 NOV 28 NOV 29 NOV 30 NOV 01 DEC 02 DEC

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT^L FWS FWS^● WS^● FWS^● SCT FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D D D D D D

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D D D D

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D D D D D D

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D D D D D D

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D

7 ^ODISHA SCT ISOL D D D D D

8 JHARKHAND ISOL D D D D D D

9 BIHAR D D D D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D^L D D D D D D

12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL D D D D D D

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D^L D - D - D D D D

14 PUNJAB D D - D - D D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL D D D D D D

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D - D - D - D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL^L D D - D - D - D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL^L D D D D D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D ISOL D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL D D D D D

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL D D D D D

26 VIDARBHA ISOL^L ISOL D D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT^L ISOL^L D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM WS^{●●● L} FWS^{● L} SCT^{● L} ISOL ISOL D D

29 TELANGANA WS^{●●● L} SCT ISOL D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA WS^{●●● L} FWS^{●● L} SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^{● L} SCT^{● L} ISOL^L ISOL^$ SCT WS FWS

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL^L ISOL D D D D ISOL

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT^L ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS^{● L} SCT^L ISOL ISOL D SCT FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE SCT SCT SCT^L SCT^$ SCT^$ FWS WS

36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D SCT SCT FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^# Thunderstorm with Hail

 -Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 ^OC to -6.4^OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5^OC)

⁺ Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 ^OC to +6.4^OC) ⁺⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5^OC)

Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 27 November – 01 December 2020: