F. No. 3-1

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 18.01.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 15.01.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 07 January 2021 to 13 January 2021, has been 98%

higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 864% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 10% in Central India, - Lower by 61% in North West India, - Lower by 56% in. East & North East India

 Cumulative rainfall during Winter season, 01 January 2021 to 13 January 2021, has been 171%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 706% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 140% in North West India, - Lower by 74% in East & North East India, - Lower by 1% in Central India

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 20 MET sub-divisions constituting 54% of total area, - Normal in 01 MET sub-divisions constituting 2% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 10 MET sub-divisions constituting 27% of total area - No rainfall in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 17% of total area.

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 128 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.13 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 102 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 127.27 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 128 major reservoirs as on 14 January 2021 was 117.09 BCM, which is:

- 91% of last year’s storage on the same day (14 January 2020) of 128.84 BCM.

- 122% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 95.81 BCM

 As on 15.01.2021, 651.94 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 641.90 lakh ha during 2019- 20 during the same period.

 Inflation (WPI Food Index) has declined from 4.27% in November 2020 to 0.92% in December 2020.

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Status of change of WPI in December 2020 over November 2020 for some major items is as under.

- All Commodities : declined from 1.55% to 1.22%.

- Primary Articles : declined from 2.72% to -1.61%

- Food Articles : declined from 3.94% to -1.11%.

- Non-food Articles : declined from 8.43% to 3.13%.

- Pulses : declined from 13.04% to 9.69%.

- Cereals : declined from -5.52% to -6.46%.

- Wheat : declined from -10.09% to -11.10%..

- Paddy : declined from 0.68% to 0.12%.

- Fruits and Vegetables : declined from 6.87% to -8.38%

- Milk : declined from 5.53% to 3.91%

 All-India progressive procurement

 As on 15 January 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 374.93 lakh MT as compared to 294.48 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

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WINTER RAINFALL STATUS (January – February) during the week ending 13 January, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (07 January 2021 to 13 January 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions and no rain in 07 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 January 2021 to 13 January 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 10 sub-divisions and no rain in 05 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex- II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (13.01.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 13.01.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 2.5 6.3 -61 LD 25.7 10.7 140 LE

Central 2.5 2.3 10 N 3.3 3.3 -1 N

South Peninsula 28.9 3.0 864 LE 38.7 4.8 706 LE

East & North-East 1.4 3.3 -56 D 1.4 5.5 -74 LD

Country as a whole 7.5 3.8 98 LE 16.8 6.2 171 LE

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 January 2021 to 13 January 2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 January to

13 JAN 2016

11 JAN 2017

10 JAN 2018

16 JAN 2019

15 JAN 2020

13 JAN 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 01 02 03

04 03 02 09

02 01 00 03

01 00 02 03

21 02 03 26

17 03 01 21 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

03 - 10 20 33

04 12 - 11 27

02 06 - 25 33

01 13 - 19 33

01 06 - 03 10

03 07 - 05 15

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 69% 31% (-) 81% (-) 58% 157% 171%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 14 January – 20 January, 2021

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with light to moderate thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep area during next 2 days and significant reduction in rainfall activities over these regions thereafter.

 Isolated heavy falls also very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe on 14th January, 2021.

 Northeast Monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and adjoining areas of coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka around 19th January, 2021.

 No weather in the form of rain or snow is expected over northwest India during next one week except higher reaches of Jammu & Kashmir, where light isolated rain/snow likely to occur towards end of the week.

 Isolated to scattered rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh and isolated light rainfall over rest parts of northeastern states during second half of the week .

 No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 07 January to 13 January, 2021 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 21 January – 27 January, 2021

 Below normal rain/snow also likely to continue over Western Himalayan Region and normal to above normal rainfall likely over northeastern states.

Temperature

Week-1 & 2 : 14 January – 27 January, 2021

 Overall week as a whole during week 1, the minimum temperatures very likely to be below normal to normal over most parts of the country, outside northeastern states, where these are likely to be above normal by 2-4°C.

 During week 2, due to absence of any active Western Disturbance, dry northwesterly winds likely to prevail over the northern & central parts of the country.

 Hence, the minimum temperatures likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country and cold wave conditions likely at isolated places over north India.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 14 January 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 128 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.13 BCM, which is about 66.77% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 128 major reservoirs decreased to 117.09 BCM from the previous week’s level of 120.01 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 128.84 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 95.81 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 128 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 117 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 08 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50%. and 01 reservoir with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 68 91 122

Last Week 70 91 119

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 75% on 14.01.2020, 48% on 14.01.2019, 49% on 14.01.2018 and 54% on 14.01.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 14.01.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124

Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Jan. 2021 3145 554 228 882 362 Cumulative Receipt upto 14.01.2021 12427 2986 1067 3706 1267 Cumulative Availability upto 14.01.2021 12658 3438 1324 4136 1391

Cumulative Sales upto 14.01.2021 12186 3019 943 3359 1242

Closing Stock as on 14.01.2021 472 419 381 777 149

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. As such, there is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintal seeds.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 13 January, 2021)

Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut and Cotton.

Agri produce sold above MSP: Jowar, Ragi, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower and Jute.

 Mandi Arrival of Tur has been started in major producing states of Telangana, Karnataka Maharasthra. Price may increase in coming weeks and Prices most likely to drop later. Govt Procurement under PSS may be initiated to provide price support to the farmers.

 Kharif Pulses namely Moong and Urad procurement is very less in 2020. Mandi Arrival of Moong, Urad and Mustard is expected to start from the third week of February and Procurement preparedness by Govt Agencies may be initiated to Procure the rabi pulses under PSS/ PSF to safequard the interest of farmers and also meet the requirements of the bufferstock.

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 In coming days, the Mandi arrivals of Potato may increase and prices may come down.

Proposal for purchase of 50,000 MT to 1,00,000 MT of potato can be considered Buffer stock. Producing states like UP. WB, Punjab, Gujarat and Bihar may be asked to initiate procurement under MIS or PSF if the prices come down further.

 The prices of Tomato most likely to come down in coming days. MOFPI may be requested to look into the matter in the production clusters whether there is maximum price drop and try to facilitate the transportation of Tomatoes from the low price production clusters to Consuming Centers having better price signals.

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VII. Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table 7.1

Period / Commodities

Weight

Inflation (year on year)

Dec-2020 Nov-2020 Dec-2019

All Commodities 100 1.22 1.55 2.76

Primary Articles 22.62 -1.61 2.72 11.54

(a) Food Articles 15.26 -1.11 3.94 13.31

Cereals 2.82 -6.46 -5.52 7.81

Paddy 1.43 0.12 0.68 4.05

Wheat 1.03 -11.10 -10.09 8.44

Pulses 0.64 9.69 13.04 13.18

Gram 0.26 9.23 10.79 -0.27

Arhar 0.13 9.38 13.61 24.78

Moong 0.07 12.0 12.54 21.63

Masur 0.05 14.39 18.36 14.93

Urad 0.09 7.91 15.98 -6.58

Vegetables 1.87 -13.20 12.24 69.48

Potato 0.28 37.75 115.12 50.06

Onion 0.16 -54.69 -7.58 455.83

Fruits 1.60 1.36 -3.80 2.27

Milk 4.44 3.91 5.53 3.34

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 1.41 0.61 6.50

(b) Non-Food

Articles 4.12 3.13 8.43 7.72

Oilseeds 1.12 7.52 8.29 8.52

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VIII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 15-01-2021

Table 8.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2020

% of Normal for

whole season

Last Year 2019

Wheat 303.28 337.14 111.2 330.60 6.55

Rice 41.78 21.04 50.4 20.04 1.00

Jowar 33.40 26.47 79.3 29.40 -2.93

Maize 17.37 15.13 87.1 15.90 -0.78

Barley 6.38 6.83 107.1 7.63 -0.81

Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.11 85.9 53.51 -4.40

Total Cereals 402.20 407.29 101.3 404.15 3.15

Gram 92.77 109.14 117.6 105.46 3.68

Lentil 14.24 16.43 115.4 16.03 0.40

Peas 8.74 10.60 121.3 10.86 -0.26

Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 3.78 177.2 5.11 -1.33

Urad 8.93 7.57 84.7 7.11 0.46

Moong 9.86 5.23 53.1 5.46 -0.23

Lathyrus 3.98 3.10 78.0 3.11 0.00

Others 4.23 6.24 147.4 5.66 0.58

Total Pulses 144.88 162.09 111.9 158.79 3.30

Total Foodgrains 547.07 569.38 104.1 562.94 6.44

Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 73.25 123.2 68.64 4.60

Groundnut 7.24 4.31 59.6 4.54 -0.23

Safflower 1.15 0.58 50.5 0.62 -0.04

Sunflower 2.37 0.96 40.4 0.98 -0.02

Linseed 2.74 2.85 103.7 3.32 -0.47

Total Oilseeds 72.94 82.56 113.2 78.96 3.60

All- Crops 620.01 651.94 105.2 641.90 10.04

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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IX. Progressive Procurement as on 15

^th

January, 2021

Table 9.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 15.01.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 42.00 15.31 15.35

Telangana 50.00 30.85 28.64

Bihar 30.00 8.69 0.78

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 28.65

Haryana 44.00 37.60 43.07

Kerala 3.25 1.19 1.14

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.09 9.89

Maharashtra 12.00 2.96 2.67

Odisha 37.00 21.89 17.63

Punjab 113.00 135.86 108.73

Tamil Nadu 17.00 4.27 0.45

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 39.68 30.88

Uttarakhand 6.70 6.75 6.19

West Bengal 23.80 4.36 0.00

All-India 518.25 374.93 294.48

Source: Food &PD

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Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 14 – 20 January, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 14 JAN 15 JAN 16 JAN 17 JAN 18 JAN 19 JAN 20 JAN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D^F D^F D^F D^F ISOL ISOL ISOL

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D^F D^F D^F D^F ISOL ISOL ISOL

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL^F ISOL^F ISOL^F ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D

7 ODISHA D^F^ D^ D D D D D

8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D

9 BIHAR D^F^ D^F^ D^F^ D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D^F^ D^F^ D^F^ D^F D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D^F^ D^F^ D^F^ D^F D D D

12 UTTARAKHAND D D D D D D D

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D^F^ D^F^ D^F^ D^F D D D

14 PUNJAB D^F D^F D^F D^F D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D D D D D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D D D D D ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D^F^ D^F^ D^F^ D D D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D^F D^F D^F D D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D^ D^ D^ D D D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D

26 ^VIDARBHA D D D D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D D D D D D D

29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^L^● SCT^L ISOL D D D D

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D ISOL ISOL^L D D D D

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D D

35 KERALA & MAHE SCT^L^● SCT^L SCT ISOL D D D

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS^L FWS^L FWS SCT SCT D D

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

 Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 15 – 19 January 2021:

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