F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 06.09.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 03.09.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 26 August 2021 to 01 September 2021, has been 1%
higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 71% in South Peninsula,
- Higher by 34% in East & North East India, - Lower by 34% in North West India,
- Lower by 23% in Central India.
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 01 September 2021, has been 9%
lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 8% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 14% in Central India.
- Lower by 13% in North West India, - Lower by 8% in East & North East India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area, - Normal in 20 MET sub-division constituting 51% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 35% of total area
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.96 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 02 September 2021 was 111.69 BCM, which is:
- 80% of last year’s storage on the same day (26 August2020) of 140.05 BCM.
- 94% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 119.03 BCM.
During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 02.09.2021), 1081.50 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 1094.01 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.
Current Marketing Season RMS 2021-22 has concluded in wheat procuring states and till date (As on
whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 389.93 LMT. About 49.20 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.
As on 03 September 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 597.58 lakh MT as compared to 512.05 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 130.45 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.
MONSOONRAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 01 September, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (26 August to 01 September 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 12 met sub-divisions, normal in 11 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 13 sub- divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 01 September 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 05 met sub-divisions, normal in 20 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 11 sub-divisions.
(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 01 September 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
31 AUG 2016
30 AUG 2017
29 AUG 2018
04 SEPT 2019
02 SEPT 2020
01 SEPT 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 04 24 28
00 06 24 30
00 01 24 25
00 09 20 29
02 09 22 33
00 05 20 25 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
08 - 00 00 08
06 00 - 00 06
11 00 - 00 11
07 00 - 00 07
03 00 - 00 03
11 00 - 00 11
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 3% (-) 3% (-) 6% 1% 9% (-) 9%
Source: IMD
Region of India Week Ending (01.09.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 01.09.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 23.5 35.6 -34 D 428.6 494.9 -13 N
Central 46.0 59.6 -23 D 696.1 807.2 -14 N
South Peninsula 61.7 36.0 71 LE 614.0 571.1 8 N
East & North-East 93.6 70.0 34 E 1039.4 1134.3 -8 N
Country as a whole 49.8 49.2 1 N 652.5 716.9 -9 N
1.2 Weather Forecast
Week 1 (02 – 08 September)
A low pressure area is likely to form over north & adjoining central Bay of Bengal around 06th September, 2021.
Rainfall activity over south peninsular India is very likely to increase from 04th September with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity & isolated heavy falls very likely over Konkan & Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu during 04th to 08th; Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe and Marathwada on 05th to 08th and over Madhya Maharashtra from 06th to 08th September. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on 07th & 08th September, 2021.
Rainfall activity over Central India is very likely to increase from 05th September with fairly widespread rainfall activity & isolated heavy falls over Chhattisgarh during 04th to 08th; Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh on 05th to 08th and over West Madhya Pradesh from 06th to 08th September.
Scattered to widespread rainfall activity likely to continue over East India during next 4- 5 days with isolated very heavy falls over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 02nd & 03rd and over Assam & Meghalaya on 02nd, 07th & 08th ; Isolated heavy falls also very likely over Odisha during 03rd to 08th; Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Bihar on 02nd September.
Rainfall activity is very likely to increase with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over most parts of northwest India with possibility of heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand &
Himachal Pradesh during 2nd half of the week.
Overall rainfall activity is very likely to be above normal.
Week 2 (09 - 15 September)
The monsoon trough is very likely to be active and near normal/ south of its position during most days of the week.
A low pressure area is likely to form over North Bay of Bengal.
There is likely increase in rainfall activity over northwest & central India and likely to decrease over south Peninsular India as compare to week 1.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls very likely over northwest, central India during most of the days.
Overall above normal rainfall activity likely over northwest, central & east India, near normal over northeastern states and below normal to near normal over south Peninsular India.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 02 September 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.96 BCM, which is about 66.70% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 111.69 BCM from the previous week’s level of 108.58 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 140.05 BCM and average of last 10 year’s storage position of 119.03 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 89 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 22 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 15 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
In BCM
ALL-INDIA RESERVOIR TREND
(WATER STOCK IN 2021 VS 2020 & AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS)
This Year
Last Year
Avg.
of Last Ten Years
Week Ending
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 65 80 94
Last Week 63 83 96
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 81% on 02.09.2020, 78% on 02.09.2019, 71% on 02.09.2018 and 56% on 02.09.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 31.08.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex/
NPK
SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152
Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during August 2021 3573 1086 365 1206 484
Cumulative Receipt upto 27.08.2021 12401 3611 935 4807 2092
Cumulative Availability upto27.08.2021 12742 3742 1032 5424 2243
Cumulative Sales upto27.08.2021 12616 3584 947 5026 2107
Closing Stock as on 27.08.2021 126 158 85 398 136
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds:
There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.
Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is overall surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 01 September, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Moong and Safflower.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Barley, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower and Cotton.
VII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 02-09-2021
Table 7.1(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Kharif Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2021
% of Normal for whole
season
Last Year 2020
Rice 395.66 401.15 101.4 400.54 0.61
Jowar 19.52 14.75 75.5 14.75 -0.01
Bajra 73.43 63.32 86.2 68.61 -5.29
Maize 74.68 80.98 108.4 79.42 1.56
Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 172.72 94.1 176.72 -4.00
Total Cereals 579.24 573.87 99.1 577.26 -3.39
Tur 45.64 49.49 108.4 47.45 2.04
Urad 37.96 37.94 99.9 37.85 0.09
Moong 33.48 34.22 102.2 34.92 -0.70
Kulthi 2.18 0.38 17.6 0.45 -0.07
Others 16.70 14.82 88.8 14.59 0.23
Total Pulses 135.95 136.85 100.7 135.26 1.59
Total Foodgrains 715.20 710.72 99.4 712.52 -1.80
Groundnut 41.70 48.50 116.3 50.76 -2.26
Soyabean 112.88 121.59 107.7 120.61 0.98
Sunflower 1.42 1.45 102.0 1.18 0.27
Sesamum 16.48 12.95 78.6 13.61 -0.66
Nigerseed 2.04 0.72 35.5 1.38 -0.66
Castorseed 8.98 5.62 62.6 6.49 -0.87
Total Oilseeds 183.50 190.94 104.1 194.14 -3.20
Cotton 123.59 118.13 95.6 126.45 -8.32
Sugarcane 47.53 54.70 115.1 53.96 0.74
Jute & Mesta 7.33 7.01 95.6 6.94 0.07
All- Crops 1077.15 1081.50 100.4 1094.01 -12.51
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 03
rdSeptember, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 03.09.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.56 53.43
Telangana 105.00 94.56 74.54
Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41
Chhattisgarh 60.00 46.73 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 12.63 11.57
Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 28.55 20.26
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.18 6.82
West Bengal 26.80 18.90 16.08
All-India 637.97 597.58 512.05
Table 8.2: Wheat
State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022
(Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 18.08.2021
In Marketing season 2021-2022
In Marketing season 2020-2021
Punjab 130.00 132.22 127.14
Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 35.77
Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.42
Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05
Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.25
Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.39
Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.77
All-India 435.34 433.44 389.93
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 02– 08 September, 2021for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 02 SEP 03 SEP 04 SEP 05 SEP 06 SEP 07 SEP 08 SEP
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● WS● WS● FWS FWS SCT FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS● FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS WS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS●● FWS● FWS● FWS FWS WS WS
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS● FWS FWS● FWS FWS FWS WS
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●● WS●● WS● FWS FWS WS WS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS WS
7 ODISHA SCT SCT● FWS● FWS● WS● FWS FWS
8 JHARKHAND SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT FWS
9 BIHAR FWS● SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT FWS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT● ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● ISOL SCT
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL● ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● SCT ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND SCT● SCT FWS WS● WS● SCT WS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT● ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS SCT
14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL ISOL SCT
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN FWS● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWS● SCT ISOL SCT FWS● WS FWS
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS● WS FWS
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS● SCT FWS
21 GUJARAT REGION FWS● SCT SCT ISOL SCT WS WS
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH WS●● FWS● SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS● WS● WS● WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT SCT SCT FWS WS● FWS SCT
25 MARATHAWADA SCT SCT SCT FWS● WS● WS SCT
26 VIDARBHA SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS● WS FWS
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT SCT SCT● FWS● FWS● FWS FWS
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS● SCT ISOL
29 TELANGANA FWS FWS WS● WS● WS● WS SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT●● SCT● SCT● ISOL● SCT● ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS WS● WS● WS WS
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS● FWS SCT
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS FWS● FWS● SCT ISOL
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS FWS FWS● WS● WS FWS
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 03 – 07 September 2021:
