F. No. 3-1

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 11.01.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 08.01.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 31 December 2020 to 06 January 2021, has been 225%

higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 393% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 335% in North West India and, - Lower by 99% in East & North East India, - Lower by 32% in Central India.

 Cumulative rainfall during Post Monsoon season, 01 October 2020 to 31 December 2020, has been 1% higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 15% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 12% in Central India, - Lower by 39% in North West India and - Lower by 15% in East & North East India

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 29% of total area - Normal in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 25% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 16 MET sub-divisions constituting 46% of total area.

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 128 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.13 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 102 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 127.27 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 128 major reservoirs as on 07 January 2021 was 119.64 BCM, which is:

- 91% of last year’s storage on the same day (07 January 2020) of 132.01 BCM.

- 120% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 99.39 BCM

 As on 08.01.2021, 644.05 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 627.66 lakh ha during 2019- 20 during the same period.

 All-India progressive procurement

 As on 08 January 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 353.13 lakh MT as compared to 277.54 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

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POST-MONSOON:(Oct–Dec) & WINTER(Jan - Feb) - RAINFALL STATUS during the week ending 06 January, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (31 December 2020 to 06 January 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 07 sub-divisions and no rain in 09 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2020 to 31 December 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 09 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (06.01.2021) Cumulative (01.10.20 to 31.12.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 22.6 5.2 335 LE 34.3 55.9 -39 D

Central 0.7 1.1 -32 D 84.9 76.0 12 N

South Peninsula 11.3 2.3 393 LE 319.4 277.1 15 N

East & North-East 0.0 2.4 -99 LD 142.1 166.7 -15 N

Country as a whole 9.4 2.9 225 LE 124.6 123.8 1 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 October to 31 December 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

31 DEC 2015

31 DEC 2016

31 DEC 2017

31 DEC 2018

31 DEC 2019

31 DEC 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 05 05 10

03 01 06 10

01 04 14 19

00 02 03 05

12 12 08 32

02 09 09 20 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

08 - 18 00 26

13 13 - 00 26

08 09 - 00 17

13 18 - 00 31

04 00 - 00 04

11 05 - 00 16

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 23% (-) 45% (-) 11% (-) 44% 29% 1%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 07 January – 13 January, 2021

 Light isolated rain/snow and isolated rain over Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh on 08^th January, 2021.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and moderate thunderstorm, &

lightning very likely over southern peninsular India during next 2-3 days.

 Isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning at isolated places very likely over Maharashtra during next 2 days.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe on 10^th & 11^th January, 2021.

 No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.

 Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over south peninsula & central India and below normal rain/snow likely over Western Himalayan Region during week. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 07 January to 13 January, 2021 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 14 January – 20 January, 2021

 Below normal rain/snow also likely over Western Himalayan Region and normal to above normal rainfall likely over south India.

Temperature

Week-1 & 2 : 07 January – 20 January, 2021

 Minimum temperatures are markedly above normal (5.1°C or more) at most places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Jharkhand, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada; at many places over Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana; at a few places over Odisha and Rayalaseema; at isolated places over West Rajasthan; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at many places over Gangetic West Bengal, East Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam.

 Gradual fall in minimum temperatures by 3-4°C very likely over most parts of Northwest India during next 4-5 days. No large change in minimum temperature very likely over central India during next 3-4 days and fall by 2-3°C thereafter.

 Overall week as a whole during week 1, the minimum temperatures very likely to be above normal to normal during 1st half and below normal by 2-3°C during 2nd half over most parts of northwest & east India. It is very likely to be normal to above normal over remaining parts of the country.

 Hence, Cold Wave conditions are not likely over the country during next 4-5 days. However, Cold Day conditions in isolated pockets very likely over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan on 8^th

& 9^th January, 2021.

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 Dense to very dense fog in isolated pockets very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi and dense fog in isolated pockets very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, north Rajasthan and North Madhya Pradesh in morning hours of 8^th & 9^th January, 2021.

 During week 2, there would be slight fall in minimum temperatures as compare to week 1.

Hence, the minimum temperatures would be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country and cold wave conditions likely at isolated places over northwest India.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 07 January 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 128 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.13 BCM, which is about 66.77% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 128 major reservoirs decreased to 119.64 BCM from the previous week’s level of 123.89 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 132.01 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 99.39 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 128 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 116 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 09 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50%. and 01 reservoir with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 70 91 120

Last Week 72 91 121

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 77% on 07.01.2020, 50% on 07.01.2019, 52% on 07.01.2018 and 56% on 07.01.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 08.01.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124

Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Jan. 2021 3145 554 228 882 362 Cumulative Receipt upto 08.01.2021 11716 2859 1043 3456 1209 Cumulative Availability upto 08.01.2021 11947 3311 1300 3886 1333

Cumulative Sales upto 08.01.2021 11464 2952 926 3160 1192

Closing Stock as on 08.01.2021 483 359 374 726 141

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. As such, there is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintal seeds.

VI. Mandi Arrivals and Price comparison with MSP (on 06 January 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Sunflower and Cotton.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Paddy, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, and Jute.

MANDI FUNCTIONING & MANDI ARRIVALS

 Arrival of Tur has been started. Telangana, Karnataka and Maharasthra are the major States where Tur arrival is significant and it will increase in coming months. Arrival of Moong, Urad and Mustard is expected to start after the second week of February

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 08-01-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2020

% of Normal for

whole season

Last Year 2019

Wheat 303.28 335.46 110.6 326.75 8.71

Rice 41.78 18.76 44.9 18.26 0.49

Jowar 33.40 26.23 78.5 28.83 -2.61

Maize 17.37 14.75 85.0 15.21 -0.45

Barley 6.38 6.82 107.0 7.60 -0.78

Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 48.45 84.8 52.18 -3.73

Total Cereals 402.20 402.67 100.1 397.19 5.48

Gram 92.77 108.39 116.8 103.79 4.59

Lentil 14.24 16.37 115.0 15.86 0.51

Peas 8.74 10.51 120.3 10.69 -0.18

Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 3.73 174.5 5.03 -1.31

Urad 8.93 7.12 79.7 6.30 0.81

Moong 9.86 4.35 44.1 2.75 1.60

Lathyrus 3.98 3.08 77.4 3.04 0.04

Others 4.23 6.04 142.7 5.20 0.84

Total Pulses 144.88 159.58 110.1 152.67 6.91

Total Foodgrains 547.07 562.25 102.8 549.86 12.39

Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 72.98 122.8 68.15 4.83

Groundnut 7.24 4.01 55.4 4.12 -0.11

Safflower 1.15 0.58 50.3 0.61 -0.03

Sunflower 2.37 0.92 38.6 0.93 -0.02

Linseed 2.74 2.73 99.4 3.21 -0.48

Total Oilseeds 72.94 81.80 112.1 77.79 4.00

All- Crops 620.01 644.05 103.9 627.66 16.39

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 08

^th

January, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 08.01.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 42.00 13.43 11.85

Telangana 50.00 29.74 27.82

Bihar 30.00 6.10 0.43

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 24.43

Haryana 44.00 37.60 43.07

Kerala 3.25 1.17 1.13

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 20.01 7.20

Maharashtra 12.00 2.42 2.28

Odisha 37.00 18.01 14.29

Punjab 113.00 135.86 108.73

Tamil Nadu 17.00 4.15 0.37

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 36.75 29.40

Uttarakhand 6.70 6.74 6.17

West Bengal 23.80 0.00 0.00

All-India 518.18 353.13 277.54

Source: Food &PD

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Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 07 January – 13 January, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021

r. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 07 JAN 08 JAN 09 JAN 10 JAN 11 JAN 12 JAN 13 JAN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D ISOL D D

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D D D D D D

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D

7 ODISHA D D D D D D D

8 ^JHARKHAND D D D D D D D

9 BIHAR D D D D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D^F D D D D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D^F ISOL D D D D D

12 UTTARAKHAND D^F ISOL D D D D D

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D^F ISOL^F D D D D D

14 ^PUNJAB D^F D^F D D D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D^F D D D D D D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL ISOL D D D D D

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D^F D D D D D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D^F ISOL D D D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL^F ISOL^{L F} ISOL^L D D D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D^F ISOL^{L F} ISOL D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA SCT^L SCT^L SCT^L ISOL ISOL D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT^L SCT^L SCT^L ISOL ISOL ISOL D

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL D D D D

26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL D D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL D D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM SCT^L ISOL^L ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

29 TELANGANA SCT^L ISOL D D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^L ISOL^L ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS^{●● L} FWS^{● L} FWS^{● L} WS^{●● L} WS^{● L} SCT ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^{●● L} WS^{● L} WS^{● L} FWS^L SCT D D

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS^L FWS^L SCT^L SCT ISOL D D

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^{●● L} FWS^{● L} SCT^L SCT ISOL D D

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^{●● L} WS^{● L} FWS^L FWS^{● L} WS^{● L} SCT ISOL

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS^L FWS^L SCT^L FWS^L WS^L FWS SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

 Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 08 – 12 January 2021:

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