F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 15.09.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 11.09.2020.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 03 September to 09 September 2020, has been 30% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 34% in South Peninsula and - Lower by 55% in Central India,
- Lower by 32% in East & North East India, - Lower by 25% in North West India.
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to 09 September 2020, has been 7% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 21% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 15% in Central India,
- Equal to LPA in East & North East India and - Lower by 11% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 29% of total area - Normal in 22 MET sub-divisions constituting 59% of total area, and
- Deficient/large deficient in 03 MET sub-divisions constituting 12% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 10 September 2020 was142.23 BCM, which is:
- 102% of last year’s storage on the same day (10 September 2019) of 139.65 BCM.
- 118% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 120.67 BCM.
As per latest information, around 103.2% of the normal area under Kharif crops has been sown up to 11.09.2020. Total area sown under Kharif reported at 1104.54 lakh hectares as compared to 1045.18 lakh hectares during the same period last year.
All-India progressive procurement
As on 11 September, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.85 lakh MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.
As on 11 September, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 511.40 lakh MT compared to 442.25 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.
This year in ongoing marketing season, procured quantity of Wheat & Rice has reached at All Time High level.
I. MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week ending 09 September 2020
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (03 Sept.2020 to 09 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 23 sub-division.
(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 09 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 22 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 03 sub- divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (09.09.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 09.09.2020) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 27.2 36.1 -25 D 478.9 536.3 -11 N
Central 24.4 54.0 -55 D 999.4 869.5 15 N
South Peninsula 44.8 33.5 34 E 739.1 609.8 21 E
East & North-East 48.8 71.5 -32 D 1220.3 1215.0 0 N
Country as a whole 33.2 47.3 -30 D 823.4 771.1 7 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 09September 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
09 SEP 2015
07SEP 2016
06SEP 2017
12SEP 2018
11SEP 2019
09SEP 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 01 18 19
- 04 25 29
00 06 22 28
00 01 26 27
00 11 16 27
02 09 22 33 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
17 - 00 00 17
07 - 00 00 07
08 00 - 00 08
09 00 - 00 09
09 00 - 00 09
03 00 - 00 03
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 15% (-) 4% (-) 5% (-) 8% 3% 7%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks Week-1: 10 - 16 Sept. 2020
An off-shore trough at mean sea level runs from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. The east-west shear zone runs roughly along 14°N across the peninsular India between 3.1 km & 3.6 km above mean sea level and likely to persists during next 4-5 days.
The western end of the monsoon trough lies to the north of its normal position and its eastern end near to its normal position. The monsoon trough very likely to shift southward due to formation of a low pressure area over Westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast around 13th September.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Peninsular India during next 4-5 days.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Coastal Karnataka during 10th - 13th; South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe on 10th& 11th September.
Extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places also very likely over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 10th& 11th September.
Heavy rainfall at isolated places also very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 4 days; and over Northeast India during next 4-5 days. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 10 – 16 Sept, 2020 is given in Annex-III).
Cumulative Rainfall for the week: Northwest and Central India to get deficient rainfall during 11th -17th September, 2020.
Week-2: 17 - 23 Sept. 2020
Northeast India and South Peninsular India will experience above normal rainfall activity during next 2 weeks.
West central India to get above normal rainfall & East Central India to get deficient rainfall during 18th – 24th September, 2020.
In association with likely low pressure system on 13th Sept. near north AP coast & its movement across Telangana, Vidarbha, excess rainfall with heavy to very heavy fall at some places very likely over AP, Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka & Kerala during 14th - 17th September, 2020.
Withdrawal of SW monsoon is unlikely due to above mentioned low likely form on 13th Sept followed by another low around 20th September in the subsequent week, though there will be continuous mainly dry spell over NW Rajasthan.
Maximum Temperatures for week 1 & 2: (10-23 September, 2020)
Mostly above normal Temperature max over central and plains of northern India during week 1 and week 2.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 10 September 2020)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 142.23 BCM from the previous week’s level of 139.16 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 139.65 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 120.67 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 83 102 118
Last Week 81 104 120
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 82% on 10-09-2019, 74% on 10-09-2018, 58% on 10- 09-2017 and 66% on 10-09-2016.
Source: CWC
There were 116 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 5 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 01 reservoir with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 10.09.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130
Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during Sept. 2020 2479 809 337 901 392
Cumulative Receipt upto10.09.2020 14184 5158 1492 4865 2273
Cumulative Availability upto 10.09.2020 14797 5957 1724 5949 2403
Cumulative Sales upto 10.09.2020 14620 5331 1461 5384 2273
Closing Stock as on 10.09.2020 177 626 263 565 130
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Locust: No reports regarding crop damage in locust-affected States of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradeshreceived during this week.
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Leaf folder reported at Trace to moderate intensity in 90 hectare area on Rice crop in East Sikkim district of Sikkim.
In Maharashtra, Girdle beetle reported at above ETL in 20 hectare area on Soybean crop in Wardha and Yavatmal districts while Pod borer reported at above ETL in 10 hectare area in Indian bean crop in Nagpur district.
V. Seeds Position:
The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with public sector agencies.
Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60%
again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of soybean seed.
VI. All India Crop Situation
Table –6
All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2020-21) as on 11.09.2020
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Kharif Season
(DES)
Area sown reported
Absolute Change over
2019 This Year
2020
% of Normal for whole
season
Last Year 2019
Rice 397.29 402.25 101.2 373.87 28.38
Jowar 20.56 16.69 81.2 16.68 0.01
Bajra 72.98 67.37 92.3 65.90 1.47
Maize 74.70 80.71 108.0 80.45 0.26
Total Coarse Cereals
184.85 179.70 97.2 177.43 2.28
Total
Cereals 582.14 581.95 100.0 551.30 30.66
Tur 44.29 48.11 108.6 45.21 2.90
Urad 35.53 38.27 107.7 37.88 0.39
Moong 30.49 35.66 117.0 30.71 4.95
Kulthi 2.13 0.33 15.5 0.43 -0.10
Others 16.45 15.49 94.2 17.53 -2.04
Total Pulses 128.88 137.87 107.0 131.76 6.11
Total
Foodgrains 711.03 719.82 101.2 683.06 36.77
Groundnut 41.41 50.89 122.9 38.92 11.97
Soyabean 110.32 121.19 109.9 113.30 7.89
Sunflower 1.64 1.18 72.4 0.98 0.21
Sesamum 16.73 13.77 82.3 13.33 0.44
Nigerseed 2.23 1.57 70.2 1.63 -0.06
Castorseed 9.07 7.39 81.5 8.76 -1.37
Total
Oilseeds 181.39 195.99 108.04 176.91 19.08
Cotton 122.27 129.30 105.7 126.61 2.69
Sugarcane 48.46 52.46 108.3 51.75 0.71
Jute &
Mesta 7.60 6.97 91.7 6.86 0.11
All- Crops 1070.75 1104.54 103.2 1045.18 59.36
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VII. Progressive Procurement as on 11 September 2020
Table 7.1: Rice
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2019-20 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 11. 09.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.69 48.09
Telangana 91.62 74.54 51.86
Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 39.13
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41
Kerala 4.50 4.75 4.65
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80
Odisha 43.50 47.28 43.83
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 13.44 21.05 12.63
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62
West Bengal 26.00 16.32 19.50
All-India 527.60 511.40 442.25
Table 7.2: Wheat
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (April– March)
Progressive Procurement as on 11. 09.2020
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03
Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05
Haryana 95.00 74.00 93.21
Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01
Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70
Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21
Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04
Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42
All-India 442.49 389.85 347.90
Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 10 – 16 September, 2020 for 36 Met Sub- Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST &Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 10 SEP 11 SEP 12 SEP 13 SEP 14 SEP 15 SEP 16 SEP
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● WS● WS● WS WS WS● WS●
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS● FWS● FWS● WS● WS● FWS FWS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS● FWS● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS●TS FWSTS FWS●TS FWSTS FWSTS FWS FWS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●TS WS●TS WS● WS● WS FWS FWS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWSTS SCTTS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS
7 ODISHA FWS●TS SCTTS SCT FWS●● FWS● SCT SCT
8 JHARKHAND SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL SCT SCT
9 BIHAR SCTTS FWS●TS SCT●TS SCT SCT SCT SCT
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOLTS ISOL ISOL SCT SCTTS FWS FWS
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY ISOL ISOL SCTTS SCT FWS
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCTTS SCT SCT
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL
14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
17 WEST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCTTS SCT FWS
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOLTS ISOLTS SCT●TS SCT●TS SCT●TS FWS● FWS● 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCTTS SCTTS SCT●TS SCT●TS SCT●TS SCT SCT 21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL SCT● SCT● SCT● SCT● FWS SCT
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL SCT● SCT● SCT SCT SCT
23 KONKAN & GOA FWS●TS WSTS WS●● WS● WS● WS●● WS●●
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS●TS FWS●TS WS● WS● WS● WS● FWS
25 MARATHAWADA FWS●TS FWSTS WS● WS● WS●● WS● FWS
26 VIDARBHA FWSTS WS●TS WS●TS WS●TS WS●●TS WS● FWS
27 CHHATTISGARH FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS SCT SCT
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM SCT●TS FWS●TS WS●TS WS●●TS FWSTS SCT SCT
29 TELANGANA FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT●TS SCT●TS FWS●TS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT●●TS ISOL●TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS●●●TS WS●●●TS WS●●TS WS● WS● WS● WS●
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA WS●●TS WS●●TS WS●TS WS● WS● SCT SCT
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA WS●●●TS WS●●●TS WS●TS WS FWS SCT SCT
35 KERALA & MAHE WS●●TS WS●●TS WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●
36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS WS WS WS WS WS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more) FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 11 - 15 September 2020:
