F. No. 3-1

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 04.01.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 01.01.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 24 December 2020 to 30 December 2020, has been 73%

lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Lower by 100% in Central India,

- Lower by 99% in East & North East India, - Lower by 77% in South Peninsula and - Lower by 62% in North West India.

 Cumulative rainfall during Post Monsoon season, 01 October 2020 to 30 December 2020, has been 1% higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 15% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 12% in Central India, - Lower by 39% in North West India and - Lower by 15% in East & North East India

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 29% of total area - Normal in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 25% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 16 MET sub-divisions constituting 46% of total area.

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 128 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.13 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 102 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 127.27 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 128 major reservoirs as on 31 December 2020 was 123.88 BCM, which is:

- 91% of last year’s storage on the same day (31 December 2019) of 135.79 BCM.

- 121% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 102.51 BCM

 As on 01.01.2021, 620.71 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 603.15 lakh ha during 2019- 20 during the same period.

 All-India progressive procurement

 As on 01 January 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 327.20 lakh MT as compared to 261.68 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

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POST-MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (October - December) during the week ending 30 December, 2020

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (24 December 2020 to 30 December 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 02 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 11 sub-divisions and no rain in 23 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2020 to 30 December 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 09 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (30.12.2020) Cumulative (01.10.20 to 30.12.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 3.1 8.3 -62 LD 33.8 55.1 -39 D

Central 0.0 1.1 -100 LD 84.9 75.9 12 N

South Peninsula 0.9 4.0 -77 LD 317.9 276.6 15 N

East & North-East 0.0 4.0 -99 LD 142.1 166.5 -15 N

Country as a whole 1.1 4.3 -73 LD 124.1 123.3 1 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 October to 30 December 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

30 DEC 2015

31 DEC 2016

31 DEC 2017

31 DEC 2018

31 DEC 2019

30 DEC 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 05 05 10

03 01 06 10

01 04 14 19

00 02 03 05

12 12 08 32

02 09 09 20 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

09 - 17 00 26

13 13 - 00 26

08 09 - 00 17

13 18 - 00 31

04 00 - 00 04

11 05 - 00 16

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 23% (-) 45% (-) 11% (-) 44% 29% 1%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 31 December, 2020 – 06 January, 2021

 Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over Western Himalayan region during 03^rd - 06^th January, 2021.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm/hailstorm at isolated places likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and northwest Madhya Pradesh during 02^nd -05^th with maximum intensity on 04^th & 05^th January, 2021.

 Light isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &

Karaikal and light isolated over Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep area during most days of the week.

 No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.

 Cumulatively, normal to above normal rainfall likely over central India and south Peninsula and below normal rain/snow likely over Western Himalayan Region during the week. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 31 December 2020 to 06 January, 2021 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 07 January – 13 January, 2021

 Below normal rain/snow also likely over Western Himalayan Region and normal to above normal rainfall likely over central India.

Temperature

Week-1 & 2 : 31 December, 2020 – 13 January, 2021

 Minimum temperatures are between 2.0°C to 6.0°C over most parts of northwest & adjoining central India. These are appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi; at a few places over West Madhya Pradesh and Saurashtra & Kutch; at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C)many places over Uttarakhand, Punjab and West Uttar Pradesh; at a few places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; at isolated places over Gujarat region

 No significant change in minimum and maximum temperatures would occur over Northwest India during next 2 days and rise by 2-3°C in minimum temperatures and 5-6°C in maximum temperatures during subsequent 3 days. Fall in minimum temperatures by 3-5°C would occur over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidharbha and Chhattisgarh and by 4-6°C over East India during first half of the 1st week.

 Minimum temperatures very likely to rise gradually by 3-5°C over most parts of Northwest and Central India during the week. However, fall in minimum temperatures over most parts of East India by 2-3°C very likely during next 2 days and no significant change thereafter.

 Overall week as a whole, the minimum temperatures would be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country outside parts of central, northeast & south Peninsular India, where these are likely to be normal to above normal.

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 Cold Wave to Severe Cold Wave conditions in isolated to some pockets very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours and abatement of Cold Wave conditions from these regions thereafter.

 During week 2, there would be slight rise in minimum temperatures as compare to week 1.

Minimum temperatures would be below normal by 2-3°C over most parts of the country outside parts of central, northeast & south Peninsular India, where these are likely to be normal to above normal.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 31 December 2020)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 128 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.13 BCM, which is about 66.77% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 128 major reservoirs decreased to 123.88 BCM from the previous week’s level of 127.73 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 135.79 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 102.51 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 128 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 116 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 09 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50%. and 01 reservoir with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 72 91 121

Last Week 74 92 119

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 79% on 31.12.2019, 52% on 31.12.2018, 54% on 31.12.2017 and 57% on 31.12.2016.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 31.12.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124

Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Dec. 2020 4201 1082 269 1053 429 Cumulative Receipt upto 31.12.2020 10973 2752 1010 3229 1154 Cumulative Availability upto 31.12.2020 11204 3204 1267 3659 1278

Cumulative Sales upto 31.12.2020 10679 2882 883 2956 1138

Closing Stock as on 31.12.2020 525 322 384 703 140

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Fusarium wilt reported at Moderate in 12 hectare area on Gram crop in Bagalkote and Balagavi districts of Karnataka.

 Fall Army Worm reported at Moderate in 07 hectare area on Maize crop in Ramanagara district of Karnataka. For Fusarium wilt in Chickpea, it was advised to destroy and uproot infested plants and adoption of Integrated Pest Management and Disease Management practices. In Chickpea cultivated area crop rotation, seed treatment with Trichoderma viride at 5g/ kg of seed before sowing were advised. For Fall army worm whorl application of Metarhizium anisopilae or Beauveria bassiana at 1 Kg/acre @ 5g/l or Entamopathogenic nematode (EPN) 4 Kg/acre @ 20 litre of water and release of Trichogrammapretiosum 50,000/acre were advised.

V. Seeds Position:

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. As such, there is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintal seeds.

VI. Mandi Arrivals and Price comparison with MSP (on 30 December 2020)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Sunflower and Cotton.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Paddy, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, and Jute.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 01-01-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2020

% of Normal for

whole season

Last Year 2019 Wheat

303.28 325.35 107.3 313.95 11.40

Rice

41.78 14.83 35.5 15.47 -0.64

Jowar 33.40 25.21 75.5 28.25 -3.04

Maize 17.37 12.57 72.4 13.73 -1.17

Barley 6.38 6.75 105.8 7.41 -0.66

Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 45.12 79.0 49.90 -4.77

Total Cereals 402.20 385.30 95.8 379.32 5.98

Gram 92.77 105.83 114.1 100.06 5.77

Lentil 14.24 16.19 113.7 15.56 0.62

Peas 8.74 10.39 118.9 10.58 -0.18

Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 3.66 171.3 5.02 -1.36

Urad 8.93 6.54 73.2 6.02 0.52

Moong 9.86 3.36 34.1 2.65 0.71

Lathyrus 3.98 3.05 76.5 3.01 0.03

Others 4.23 5.78 136.7 4.99 0.79

Total Pulses 144.88 154.80 106.9 147.90 6.90

Total Foodgrains 547.07 540.10 98.7 527.22 12.88

Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 72.39 121.8 66.62 5.76

Groundnut 7.24 3.61 49.9 3.95 -0.34

Safflower 1.15 0.54 46.6 0.59 -0.05

Sunflower 2.37 0.87 36.8 0.92 -0.05

Linseed 2.74 2.67 97.2 3.09 -0.42

Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.61 110.5 75.93 4.68

All- Crops 620.01 620.71 100.1 603.15 17.56

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 01

^st

January, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 01.01.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 42.00 10.32 9.70

Telangana 50.00 27.87 25.48

Bihar 20.00 4.18 0.20

Chhattisgarh 60.00 33.48 20.21

Haryana 44.00 37.60 43.07

Kerala 3.25 1.16 1.11

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 15.34 4.82

Maharashtra 12.00 1.98 1.92

Odisha 37.00 14.51 12.23

Punjab 113.00 135.86 108.73

Tamil Nadu 17.00 3.88 0.34

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 33.12 27.36

Uttarakhand 6.70 6.70 6.14

West Bengal 23.80 0.00 0.00

All-India 501.17 327.20 261.68

Source: Food &PD

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Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 31 December, 2020 – 06 January, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020-21

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 31 DEC 01 JAN 02 JAN 03 JAN 04 JAN 05 JAN 06 JAN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D D D D D D

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D^F D^F D D D D D

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D^F D^F D D D D D

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D D D D D D

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D

7 ODISHA D D D D D D D

8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D

9 BIHAR D^F D^F D D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D^F D^F ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D^F- ISOL^F- ISOL^L SCT^# FWS^# SCT ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND D^F D ISOL ISOL FWS FWS SCT

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D^F ISOL^F ISOL^L SCT^# WS^# FWS ISOL

14 PUNJAB D^F D^F ISOL^L SCT^# WS^{● #} FWS SCT

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL FWS FWS SCT

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D ISOL ISOL^L WS^{● /}*^# FWS SCT

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D- D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D- ISOL ISOL^L SCT^L SCT^# ISOL D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D^F ISOL ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D D ISOL ISOL D D D

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D ISOL D D D D D

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D

26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D D D D D D D

29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^{● L} ISOL ISOL ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL D D D D D D

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL^L D D D D D D

35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL^L D D ISOL ISOL^L ISOL SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT^L D D D SCT^L SCT SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

 Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 01 – 05 January 2021:

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