F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 24.08.2020 SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 21.08.2020.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 13 to 19 August 2020, has been 42% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 93% in Central India, - Higher by 56% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 12% in North West India and - Lower by 23% in East & North East India.
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to 19 August 2020, has been 5% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 25% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 7% in Central India
- Higher by 6% in East & North East India and - Lower by 17% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 28% of total area - Normal in 20 MET sub-divisions constituting 58% of total area, and
- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
-Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.
-Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 20 August 2020 was 109.94 BCM, which is:
- 90% of last year’s storage on the same day (20 August 2019) of 122.62 BCM.
- 107% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 102.69 BCM.
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 3.05% in June 2020 to 4.32% in July 2020.
Status of change of WPI in July 2020 over June 2020 for some major items is as under.
- Primary Articles: increased from -1.21% to 0.63%.
- Food Articles: increased from 2.04% to 4.08%.
- Non-food Articles: declined from -2.80% to -3.57%.
- Pulses: increased from 10.10% to 10.24%.
- Cereals: declined from 2.72% to 0.75%.
- Wheat: declined from 5.17% to 2.67%.
- Paddy: declined from 4.48% to 3.75%.
- Fruits and Vegetables: increased from -4.50% to 3.59%.
- Milk: increased from 4.05% to 4.61%.
As per latest information, around 99.3% of the normal area under Kharif crops has been sown up to 21.08.2020. Total area sown under Kharif reported at 1062.93 lakh hectares as compared to 979.15 lakh hectares during the same period last year.
All-Indiaprogressive procurementas on 21 August 2020
As on 21 August, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.83 lakh MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.
As on 21 August, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 509.50 lakh MT compared to 440.49 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.
I. MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week ending 19 August 2020
1.1Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (13 Aug. 2020 to 19 Aug. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 15 met sub-divisions, normal in 11 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 10 sub-division.
(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is inAnnex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 19 Aug. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 12 met sub-divisions, normal in 20 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 04 sub-divisions.
(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is inAnnex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (19.08.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 19.08.2020) (in mm) Deviati
on (%) Catego
ry (in mm) Deviati
on (%) Catego Actual Norma ry
l Actual Norma
North-West 55.0 49.0 12 N 349.5 422.6l -17 N
Central 133.9 69.5 93 LE 744.4 694.2 7 N
South
Peninsula 69.1 44.3 56 E 627.4 500.0 25 E
East & North-
East 63.4 82.3 -23 D 1050.4 993.5 6 N
Country as a
whole 85.7 60.2 42 E 648.8 620.2 5 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 19 August 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to 19 AUG
2015 17 AUG
2016 16 AUG
2017 22AUG
2018 21 AUG
2019 19 AUG 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
04- 1822
06- 2430
0105 2026
0002 2325
0108 2029
0210 2032 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
14- 0000 14
06- 0000 06
1000 00- 10
1100 00- 11
0700 00- 07
0400 00- 04
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 9% 0% (-) 4% (-) 7% 2% 5%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks Week-1: 20 - 26 August 2020
The Well Marked Low over interior Odisha likely to move westwards across Chhattisgarh & MP during next 3 days.
Consequently Monsoon Trough will remain to the south of its normal position and active upto 24th August.
A fresh Low Pressure Area could form over North Bay around 23rd August and move west- northwestwards upto south UP till 30thAugust.
Above normal rainfall activity over the country will continue during the week especially over Central northwest, and north peninsular India.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over south Chhattisgarh & Telangana on 20th; MP on 21st& 22nd south Rajasthan & Gujarat State during 22nd – 23rd; Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal & Jharkhand on 23rd& 24thAug.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 20 cm/day are also likely over some parts of above regions causing floods or aggravating the prevailing flood situation.
A fresh active spell with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Northwest India 25th – 28th August.
Rainfall likely to remain below normal over south peninsular India. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 20 - 26 Aug, 2020 is given in Annex-III).
Cumulative Rainfall for the week: Overall, above normal rainfall activity over central parts of the country, western parts of India and north Peninsular India and most parts of plains of northwest India with normal to below normal rainfall over rest of the country.
Week-2: 27 August - 02 Sept. 2020
Likely weakening of overall Monsoon flow.
Monsoon trough is likely to remain to the north of its normal position.
Major rainfall activity could remain confined to the Northwest India, northern plains & adjoining areas of East central India.
Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: Below normal rainfall activity is likely to continue over south Peninsular India and extend to north peninsular and adjoining central India and also over Northeastern states.
Maximum Temperatures
During week-1 (20 – 26 August 2020):- Most parts of India likely to experiences below normal maximum temperature during the week except northeast India and some areas of Peninsular India.
During week-2 (27August– 02 Sept. 2020):-Most parts of India likely to experiences below normal maximum temperature during the week except Western Himalayan region and parts of central, northeast India and plains of northwest India.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 20 August 2020)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36%of total reservoir capacity of257.81BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 109.94 BCM from the previous week’s level of 92.92 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 122.62 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 102.69 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country
Period Storage as % of
FRL Storage as % of
Last Year Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 64 90 107
Last Week 54 88 98
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 72% on 20-08-2019, 58% on 20-08-2018, 48% on 20- 08-2017 and 60% on 20-08-2016.
Source: CWC
There were 101 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 16 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 04 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 02 reservoirs with storage up to 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 20.08.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130
Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642
Estimated Requirement during Aug. 2020 3285 949 384 1056 451
Cumulative Receipt up to 20.08.2020 12182 4245 1145 4037 2012
Cumulative Availability up to 20.08.2020 12795 5044 1377 5121 2142
Cumulative Sales up to 20.08.2020 12593 4359 1155 4531 2013
Closing Stock as on 20.08.2020 202 685 222 590 129
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Locust: No reports regarding crop damage in locust-affected States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh received during this week.
As on 19.08.2020 around469515(Ha) Area has been Intensively Surveyed, Locust control has been taken up in2502Spots and total Area that has been Treated is276864(Ha.).
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds Position:
The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with public sector agencies.
Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60% again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of soybean seed.
VI. Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table –6
Period / Commodities Weight Inflation (year on year)
July-2020 June-2020 July-2019
All Commodities 100 -0.58 -1.81 1.17
Primary Articles 22.62 0.63 -1.21 5.54
(a) Food Articles 15.26 4.08 2.04 6.56
Cereals 2.82 0.75 2.72 8.67
Paddy 1.43 3.75 4.48 3.16
Wheat 1.03 2.67 5.17 5.79
Pulses 0.64 10.24 10.10 20.00
Gram 0.26 -1.10 -1.84 13.72
Arhar 0.13 6.59 6.09 35.07
Moong 0.07 26.62 29.87 19.22
Masur 0.05 14.55 13.13 16.62
Urad 0.09 38.17 38.91 23.01
Vegetables 1.87 8.20 -9.21 10.49
Potato 0.28 69.07 56.20 -24.15
Onion 0.16 -25.56 -15.27 7.63
Fruits 1.60 -3.03 2.31 15.38
Milk 4.44 4.61 4.05 1.47
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 5.27 4.45 3.59
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 -3.57 -2.80 4.21
Oilseeds 1.12 2.60 3.20 8.69
VII. All India Crop Situation
Table –7
All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2020-21) as on 21.08.2020
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Kharif Season
(DES)
Area sown reported
Absolute Change over 2019 This Year
2020
% of Normal for whole
season
Last Year 2019
Rice 397.29 378.32 95.2 338.65 39.67
Jowar 20.56 14.89 72.4 14.81 0.08
Bajra 72.98 67.08 91.9 64.72 2.37
Maize 74.70 79.58 106.5 77.89 1.69
Total Coarse
Cereals 184.85 174.06 94.2 166.80 7.26
Total Cereals 582.14 552.38 94.9 505.45 46.93
Tur 44.29 46.60 105.2 43.42 3.19
Urad 35.53 37.00 104.1 34.38 2.61
Moong 30.49 34.00 111.5 29.80 4.21
Kulthi 2.13 0.13 5.9 0.09 0.04
Others 16.45 14.83 90.2 16.46 -1.64
Total Pulses 128.88 132.56 102.9 124.15 8.41
Total Foodgrains 711.03 684.94 96.3 629.60 55.34
Groundnut 41.41 50.03 120.8 35.79 14.24
Soyabean 110.32 120.00 108.8 112.47 7.52
Sunflower 1.64 1.02 62.2 0.81 0.21
Sesamum 16.73 13.29 79.5 12.34 0.96
Nigerseed 2.23 1.11 49.8 0.91 0.20
Castorseed 9.07 5.69 62.7 5.20 0.48
Total Oilseeds 181.39 191.14 105.37 167.53 23.61
Cotton 122.27 127.69 104.4 123.54 4.15
Sugarcane 48.46 52.19 107.7 51.62 0.57
Jute & Mesta 7.60 6.97 91.7 6.86 0.12
All- Crops 1070.75 1062.93 99.3 979.15 83.79
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 21 August 2020
Table 8.1: Rice
(in lakh tonnes)
State Target in Marketing
season 2019-20 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 21.08.2020
In Marketing season
2019-2020 In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.20 48.05
Telangana 91.62 74.54 51.86
Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 40.20
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41
Kerala 4.50 4.75 4.65
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80
Odisha 43.50 47.28 43.83
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 13.44 19.98 12.54
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62
West Bengal 26.00 16.27 16.96
All-India 527.60 509.50 440.49
Table 8.2: Wheat
(in lakh tonnes)
State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (April– March)
Progressive Procurement as on 21.08.2020
In Marketing season
2020-2021 In Marketing season 2019-2020
Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03
Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05
Haryana 95.00 73.98 93.21
Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01
Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70
Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21
Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04
Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42
All-India 442.49 389.83 347.90
Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 20 - 26 Aug, 2020for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 20 AUG 21 AUG 22 AUG 23 AUG 24 AUG 25 AUG 26 AUG
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS WS●● WS●●
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS●TS SCT●TS SCT FWS● FWS● WS● WS●
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WSTS FWS SCT FWS● FWS● WS● WS●
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●TS FWS FWS FWS● FWS WS WS●●
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS●● WS● WS● WS WS WS● WS●
7 ODISHA WS●● SCT FWS● WS●● WS●● FWS SCT
8 JHARKHAND WS● WS● WS WS● WS WS WS●
9 BIHAR ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT●TS SCT●TS FWS●TS FWS● FWS● WS● WS●●
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS●TS SCT●TS SCT●TS SCT SCT FWS WS●
12 UTTARAKHAND WS●●TS FWS FWS FWS● WS● WS● WS●●
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI WS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● WS●●
14 PUNJAB FWS●●TS SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS● WS●●
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS●
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH WS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT● SCT FWS●
17 WEST RAJASTSAN FWS●●TS SCT● SCT●●TS SCT FWS SCT ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN WS●●TS WS●●TS WS●●●TS WS●● FWS FWS● SCT●
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS● WS●●●TS WS●● FWS●● FWS FWS FWS●
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS●● WS●● WS FWS FWS WS● WS●
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. WS●● WS●● WS●●● WS●●● WS● FWS SCT
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU FWS● WS●● WS●●● WS●●● WS FWS SCT
23 KONKAN & GOA WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS● WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS● WS●● FWS●● SCT●● SCT● SCT SCT
25 MARATHAWADA WS● WS FWS● FWS FWS● SCT SCT
26 VIDARBHA WS●● WS● FWS FWS FWS FWS● FWS●
27 CHHATTISGARH WS●●TS WS● FWS FWS WS● WS● WS●
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS●●TS FWSTS SCTTS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS FWS
29 TELANGANA WS●●● WS● FWS FWS FWS● FWS WS
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT● SCT● SCT● SCT●●
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS● FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT FWS● FWS● SCT SCT
35 KERALA & MAHE SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS● FWS●
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES(76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES(51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES(26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED(up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall(64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall(115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall(204.5 mm or more) FOG *SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM -COLD WAVE(-4.5OC to -6.4OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE(< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM +HEAT WAVE(+4.5OC to +6.4OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>
+6.4)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 21– 25 August 2020:
