F. No. 3-1

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 01.02.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 29.01.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 21 January 2021 to 27 January 2021, has been 66%

lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Lower by 100% in Central India, - Lower by 72% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 70% in North West India, - Lower by 26% in. East & North East India

 Cumulative rainfall during Winter season, 01 January 2021 to 27 January 2021, has been 38%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 500% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 3% in North West India, - Lower by 51% in East & North East India, - Lower by 48% in Central India

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 14 MET sub-divisions constituting 35% of total area, - Normal in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 16% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 32% of total area - No rainfall in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 17% of total area.

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 128 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.13 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 102 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 127.27 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 128 major reservoirs as on 28 January 2021 was 109.25 BCM, which is:

- 90% of last year’s storage on the same day (28 January 2020) of 120.96 BCM.

- 122% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 89.39 BCM

 As on 29.01.2021, 684.59 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 665.59 lakh ha during 2019- 20 during the same period.

 All-India progressive procurement

 As on 28 January 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 396.98 lakh MT as compared to 332.54 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

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WINTER RAINFALL STATUS (January – February) during the week ending 27 January, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (21 January 2021 to 27 January 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 01 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 08 sub-divisions and no rain in 23 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 January 2021 to 27 January 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 14 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions and no rain in 05 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (27.01.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 27.01.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 2.7 9.2 -70 LD 28.4 27.7 3 N

Central 0.0 1.5 -100 NR 3.3 6.3 -48 D

South Peninsula 0.2 0.7 -72 LD 45.6 7.6 500 LE

East & North-East 3.4 4.6 -26 D 7.1 14.4 -51 D

Country as a whole 1.4 4.2 -66 D 19.9 14.4 38 E

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 January 2021 to 27 January 2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 January to

27 JAN 2016

25 JAN 2017

24 JAN 2018

30 JAN 2019

29 JAN 2020

27 JAN 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 04 08 12

02 01 04 07

01 00 00 01

05 04 06 15

15 03 05 23

12 02 05 19 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

03 - 16 05 24

04 16 - 09 29

05 12 - 18 35

03 12 - 06 21

06 04 - 03 13

07 05 - 05 17

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 60% (-) 3% (-) 84% (-) 3% 71% 38%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 28 January – 03 February, 2021

 Light isolated rain/thundershower very likely to occur over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidharbha, Chhattisgarh on 28^th January, 2021, over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 29^th January to 1^st February and over Kerala & Mahe on 31^st January & 1^st February 2021,

 Light isolated rain/snow very likely over the Western Himalayan region during 01^st – 03^rd February, 2021.

 Isolated to scattered rain/snow with moderate thunderstorm & lightning likely over Arunachal Pradesh during 29^th to 31^st January, 2021 and light rain/thundershower over rest parts of northeast India during same period.

 Cumulatively, above normal rain over coastal Tamil Nadu, normal to above normal over parts of central India and below normal over northern parts of country including Western Himalayan Region. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 21 January to 27 January, 2021 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 04 – 10 February, 2021

 Below normal rain/snow likely over northern parts of country including Western Himalayan Region.

 Light isolated rain/thundershower very likely to occur over Madhya Pradesh, Vidharbha and Chhattisgarh during 1st half of the week 2. Hence normal to above normal rainfall likely over above region.

Temperature

Week-1 & 2 : 28 January – 10 February, 2021

 Minimum temperatures very likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country outside south Peninsular India, where these are likely to be near normal.

 Cold wave conditions likely at isolated places over north India during week 2.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 28 January 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 128 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.13 BCM, which is about 66.77% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 128 major reservoirs decreased to 109.25 BCM from the previous week’s level of 113.13 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 120.96 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 89.39 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 128 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 115 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 09 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50%. and 02 reservoir with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 63 90 122

Last Week 66 90 119

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 70% on 28.01.2020, 46% on 28.01.2019, 45% on 28.01.2018 and 50% on 28.01.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 28.01.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124

Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Jan. 2021 3145 554 228 882 362 Cumulative Receipt upto 28.01.2021 13875 3172 1171 4152 1442 Cumulative Availability upto 28.01.2021 14106 3624 1428 4582 1566

Cumulative Sales upto 28.01.2021 13626 3164 1025 3817 1401

Closing Stock as on 28.01.2021 480 460 403 765 165

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Rugose spiraling whitefly and Neotropical whitefly reported at moderate to severe intensity in 500 hectare area Coconut in Tumkur, Bengaluru rural, Mandya and Mysore district of Karnataka.

 Rugose Spiraling White fly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) and Neotropical Whitefly (AleurotrachelusatratusHempel) in Coconut & Arecanut at Tumkur District (Farmers infected Field) RCIPMCs demonstrated use of Isariafumosorosea @5ml/1lt of water spray and advised farmers to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and in case of unavailability Isariafumosorosea farmers were advised for spraying of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5%.

 Helicoverpaarmigera is also reported on wheat crop in sagar district of Madhya Pradesh.

For control of Helicoverpaarmigera in Wheat crops farmers were advised for growing trap crop application of NPV @0.5 ml/litre in one acre area was suggested.

V. Seeds Position:

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. As such, there is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintal seeds.

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VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 25 January, 2021)

Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Safflower and Sunflower.

Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.

 Arrival of Tur has been started. Telangana, Karnataka are the major States where Tur arrival is significant. Arrival of Moong, Urad and Mustard is expected to start from the second week of February.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 29-01-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2020

% of Normal for

whole season

Last Year 2019

Wheat 303.28 346.36 114.2 336.43 9.93

Rice 41.78 35.23 84.3 30.20 5.02

Jowar 33.40 27.18 81.4 30.19 -3.01

Maize 17.37 16.94 97.5 17.48 -0.55

Barley 6.38 6.84 107.3 7.79 -0.95

Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 51.68 90.4 56.10 -4.42

Total Cereals 402.20 433.26 107.7 422.73 10.53

Gram 92.77 112.00 120.7 107.31 4.69

Lentil 14.24 16.54 116.2 16.13 0.42

Peas 8.74 10.69 122.3 10.97 -0.28

Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 3.88 181.9 5.18 -1.29

Urad 8.93 8.09 90.6 7.54 0.55

Moong 9.86 6.59 66.9 6.66 -0.06

Lathyrus 3.98 3.14 78.8 3.31 -0.17

Others 4.23 6.44 152.3 5.79 0.65

Total Pulses 144.88 167.38 115.5 162.87 4.51

Total Foodgrains 547.07 600.64 109.8 585.60 15.04

Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 73.94 124.4 69.08 4.85

Groundnut 7.24 4.76 65.8 4.82 -0.06

Safflower 1.15 0.59 51.0 0.63 -0.05

Sunflower 2.37 1.04 43.9 1.05 -0.01

Linseed 2.74 2.94 107.0 3.47 -0.53

Total Oilseeds 72.94 83.95 115.1 79.98 3.97

All- Crops 620.01 684.59 110.4 665.59 19.01

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 28

^th

January, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 28.01.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 42.00 19.70 19.74

Telangana 50.00 32.03 30.77

Bihar 30.00 13.70 1.75

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 40.95

Haryana 44.00 37.60 43.07

Kerala 3.25 1.24 1.18

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 12.00 3.47 3.41

Odisha 37.00 28.21 23.33

Punjab 113.00 135.86 108.73

Tamil Nadu 17.00 4.67 1.06

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 42.10 34.20

Uttarakhand 6.70 6.79 6.22

West Bengal 23.80 4.39 0.01

All-India 518.25 396.98 332.54

Source: Food &PD

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Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 28 Jan – 03 Feb., 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 28 JAN 29 JAN 30 JAN 31 JAN 01 FEB 02 FEB 03 FEB

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL^L^# SCT^L^# ISOL D D D

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D^F ISOL^L ISOL^L D^F D^F D D

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D^F ISOL^F ISOL^F D^F D^F D D

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D^F ISOL^F D D D D D

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL D D D D D

7 ODISHA D D^F D^F D^F D D D

8 JHARKHAND ISOL ISOL D D D D D

9 BIHAR D^F D^F D^F D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D^F- D^F- D^F D^F D^F D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D^F- D^F- D^F D^F D^F D D

12 UTTARAKHAND D D D D D D D

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D^F- D^F- D^F D^F D D D

14 PUNJAB D^F- D^F- D^F D^F D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D D D ISOL D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D- D- D D D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D

26 VIDARBHA ISOL D D D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL D D D D D D

29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

35 KERALA & MAHE D D D ISOL ISOL D D

36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D D D D

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

 Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 29 January – 02 February 2021:

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