F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 03.08.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 30.07.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 22 July 2021 to 28 July 2021, has been 15% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 53% in Central India.
- Higher by 37% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 1% in North West India,
- Lower by 51% in East & North East India,
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 28 July 2021, has been 2% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 22% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 02% in Central India.
- Lower by 18% in East & North East India, - Lower by 07% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 23% of total area, - Normal in 18 MET sub-division constituting 53% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 24% of total area
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 29 July 2021 was 85.36 BCM, which is:
- 121% of last year’s storage on the same day (29 July 2020) of 70.77 BCM.
- 121% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 70.35 BCM.
During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 30.07.2021), 848.15 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 889.99 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.
Procurement of Wheat in marketing season RMS 2021-22 is progressing smoothly in procuring states. As on 30.07.2021, over 433.32 LMT has been procured whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 387.67 LMT. About 49.15 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.
As on 30 July 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 585.01 lakh MT as compared to 509.22 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 128.55 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.
MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 28 July, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (22 July to 28 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 18 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 07 sub-divisions.
(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 28 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 18 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 09 sub-divisions. (Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (28.07.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 28.07.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 53.3 52.9 1 N 246.5 265.1 -7 N
Central 117.9 77.3 53 E 470.0 459.0 2 N
South Peninsula 72.3 52.8 37 E 435.8 356.0 22 E
East & North-East 45.2 92.4 -51 D 608.3 740.9 -18 N
Country as a whole 77.5 67.4 15 N 416.6 424.1 -2 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 28 July 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
27 JULY 2016
26 JULY 2017
25 JULY 2018
31 JULY 2019
29 JULY 2020
28 JULY 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 11 17 28
02 05 26 33
00 07 18 25
00 03 19 22
01 10 18 29
03 06 18 27 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
08 - 00 00 08
03 00 - 00 03
11 00 - 00 11
14 00 - 00 14
07 00 - 00 07
09 00 - 00 09
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 0% 5% (-) 3% (-) 9% 1% (-) 2%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast
Week 1 (29 July to 04 August)
The western end of the Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through north of its normal position, while its eastern end is near its normal position. The western end likely to stay along normal position or slightly south of the normal while eastern end is very likely to shift gradually northwards during next 3-4 days.
Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Gangetic West Bengal on 29th July; over Jharkhand & Chhattisgarh on 30th July and over East Madhya Pradesh on 31st July, 2021.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely to continue over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh during 29th July - 02nd August. It is likely to increase from 30th July with isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over East Rajasthan during 30th July-01st August and over West Madhya Pradesh on 31st July, 2021.
It is likely to decrease in intensity thereafter with possibility of isolated heavy falls over these areas.
Current spell of widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely to continue over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Punjab and Haryana till 30th July and decrease thereafter. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Uttar Pradesh during most days of the week.
Light/moderate isolated to scatted rainfall activity is likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.
Week 2 (05 to 11 August)
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northern parts of Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan during most days of the week.
Enhanced rainfall activity over southwest coast of India covering Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
It is normal to above normal active monsoon rainfall likely to continue West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northern parts of Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan.
Normal to below normal activity is likely to continue during week 2 over Peninsular India with slight improvement over southwest coast of India covering Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
It is likely to be normal over Northeast India and below normal over Western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 29 July 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 85.36 BCM from the previous week’s level of 65.56 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 70.77 BCM and average of last 10 year’s storage position of 70.35 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 96 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 24 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 09 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 01 reservoir with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 49 121 121
Last Week 38 98 112
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 41% on 29.07.2020, 28% on 29.07.2019, 43% on 29.07.2018 and 41% on 29.07.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 30.07.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex/
NPK
SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152
Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during July 2021 3773 1124 423 1254 497
Cumulative Receipt upto 30.07.2021 9374 2944 822 3585 1651
Cumulative Availability upto 30.07.2021 9715 3075 919 4203 1803
Cumulative Sales upto 30.07.2021 9507 2798 738 3714 1668
Closing Stock as on 30.07.2021 208 277 181 489 135
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds:
There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.
Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is overall surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 28 July, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Moong, Groundnut and Safflower.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
VII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 30-07-2021
Table 7.1(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Kharif Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2021
% of Normal for whole
season
Last Year 2020
Rice 395.66 264.62 66.9 275.63 -11.01
Jowar 19.52 10.69 54.7 12.03 -1.35
Bajra 73.43 49.72 67.7 54.51 -4.80
Maize 74.68 72.65 97.3 72.76 -0.10
Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 139.08 75.8 147.42 -8.33
Total Cereals 579.24 403.70 69.7 423.05 -19.34
Tur 45.64 41.83 91.6 40.24 1.58
Urad 37.96 29.96 78.9 32.89 -2.93
Moong 33.48 26.47 79.1 29.38 -2.91
Kulthi 2.18 0.24 11.2 0.23 0.01
Others 16.70 9.37 56.1 8.41 0.95
Total Pulses 135.95 107.87 79.3 111.15 -3.28
Total Foodgrains 715.20 511.58 71.5 534.20 -22.63
Groundnut 41.70 41.05 98.4 45.75 -4.70
Soyabean 112.88 112.15 99.4 116.13 -3.98
Sunflower 1.42 1.06 74.7 0.79 0.27
Sesamum 16.48 9.25 56.1 10.08 -0.83
Nigerseed 2.04 0.13 6.4 0.44 -0.31
Castorseed 8.98 0.72 8.0 0.81 -0.09
Total Oilseeds 183.50 164.43 89.6 174.09 -9.65
Cotton 123.59 110.73 89.6 121.25 -10.52
Sugarcane 47.53 54.42 114.5 53.54 0.88
Jute & Mesta 7.33 6.99 95.3 6.91 0.08
All- Crops 1077.15 848.15 78.7 889.99 -41.85
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 30
thJuly, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 30.07.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.34 53.18
Telangana 105.00 94.56 74.54
Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 12.37 11.24
Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 26.51 18.68
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.18 6.82
West Bengal 26.80 15.84 15.99
All-India 637.97 585.01 509.22
Table 8.2: Wheat
State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022
(Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 30.07.2021
In Marketing season 2021-2022
In Marketing season 2020-2021
Punjab 130.00 132.10 127.12
Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 33.61
Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.35
Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05
Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.25
Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.38
Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.77
All-India 435.34 433.32 387.67
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 29 July – 04 August, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 29 JUL 30 JUL 31 JUL 01 AUG 02 AUG 03 AUG 04 AUG
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS FWS WS WS SCT SCT
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS FWS FWS● FWS FWS SCT SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS● SCT FWS
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS WS WS WS● FWS SCT WS
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS FWS FWS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS●●● WS● FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT
7 ODISHA WS●● WS● FWS● FWS SCT ISOL SCT
8 JHARKHAND WS●● WS●●● FWS●● FWS FWS FWS SCT
9 BIHAR WS●● WS●● WS●● WS WS FWS WS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS● WS● FWS●● FWS● FWS● SCT SCT
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS●● WS● FWS● FWS● WS● FWS SCT
12 UTTARAKHAND WS●● WS●● WS● WS● WS● FWS WS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI WS●● FWS● SCT SCT FWS FWS WS
14 PUNJAB FWS●● SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS●● WS● WS● WS● WS● SCT SCT
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH WS● WS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN SCT● SCT●● FWS●● FWS● FWS● FWS SCT
18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWS● WS●●● WS●●● WS●●● WS●●● WS FWS
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS● WS●● WS●●● WS●● WS●● SCT SCT
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS●● WS●● WS●●● WS●● WS● SCT SCT
21 GUJARAT REGION SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL
23 KONKAN & GOA WS● WS WS WS● WS WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS● FWS● FWS● SCT SCT SCT SCT
25 MARATHAWADA SCT ISOL● ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
26 VIDARBHA WS WS WS FWS FWS SCT SCT
27 CHHATTISGARH WS● WS●●● WS●● FWS● FWS● SCT SCT
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS FWS FWS WS FWS
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 30 July – 03 August 2021:
