F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 15.03.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 12.03.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 04 March 2021 to 10 March 2021, has been 54% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 100% in Central India, - Lower by 85% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 62% in North West India, - Lower by 11% in East & North East India.
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 10 March 2021, has been 58% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 100% in Central India.
- Lower by 87% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 73% in North West India, - Lower by 4% in East & North East India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 02 MET sub-divisions constituting 04% of total area, - Normal in 02 MET sub-divisions constituting 05% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 34% of total area - No rainfall in 19 MET sub-division constituting 57% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 11 March 2021 was 84.38 BCM, which is:
- 88% of last year’s storage on the same day (11 March 2020) of 95.46 BCM.
- 123% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 68.33 BCM.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 648.41 lakh hectares as compared to 646.74 lakh hectares during 2019-20 (4th Adv. Estimates).
All-India progressive procurement
As on 12 March 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 455.03 lakh MT as compared to 397.66 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 10 March, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (04 March to 10 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 02 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions and no rain in 19 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 10 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 02 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions and no rain in 19 sub-division. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (10.03.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 10.03.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 3.5 9.2 -62 LD 3.5 13.3 -73 LD
Central 0.0 1.9 -100 NR 0.0 2.9 -100 NR
South Peninsula 0.4 2.9 -85 LD 0.4 3.5 -87 LD
East & North-East 8.4 9.5 -11 N 13.5 14.1 -4 N
Country as a whole 2.5 5.5 -54 D 3.3 8.0 -58 D
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 10 March 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
09 MAR 2016
08 MAR 2017
07 MAR 2018
13 MAR 2019
11 MAR 2020
10 MAR 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 15 02 17
07 00 04 11
03 00 00 03
01 01 08 10
23 05 03 31
01 01 02 04 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
08 - 08 03 19
06 12 - 07 25
03 13 - 17 33
10 10 - 06 26
02 02 - 01 05
03 10 - 19 32
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 30% (-) 10% (-) 30% (-) 33% 82% (-) 58%
Source: IMD
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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 11 – 17 March, 2021 Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds/hail very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit- Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on 11th & 12th March.
Isolated heavy falls is also very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan &
Muzaffarabad on 11th March, 2021.
Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &
Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during 11th night to 12th March evening. Isolated thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds/hail also likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh during 11th night to 12th March evening.
Due to eastward movement of the above Western Disturbance; isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning & hail very likely over East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal & Sikkim during 12th night to 13th March evening.
A fresh Western Disturbance is very likely to affect the Western Himalayan Region &
adjoining plains of Northwest India from 13th March night.
Isolated to scattered rainfall over the Western Himalayan Region during 14th & 15th March and isolated very light rainfall over northern parts of Punjab and Haryana & Chandigarh on 14th March, 2021.
Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh and isolated to scattered light rain/thundershower is very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the week.
Light rainfall/thundershower is also likely over Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &
Karaikal during the week.
Cumulatively, above normal rainfall likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Madhya Pradesh & adjoining Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states and normal to below normal rainfall over rest parts of country.
Week-2: 18 – 24 March, 2021
Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorm & lightening activity likely over West coast, north Peninsular & adjoining central India. Hence rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over above areas. It is likely to be below normal to normal over remaining parts of the country
Temperature
Week-1 & 2 : 11 – 24 March, 2021
Maximum temperatures are in the range of 34 to 39°C over most parts of plains of northwest India, central, east & south Peninsular India. These are 2 to 6°C above normal over most parts of plains of northwest, central & east India and near normal over remaining parts of the country.
These are very likely to fall by 2-4°C over most parts of Northwest & Central India during 2 days and rise by 2-4°C during subsequent 3 days.
No significant change in maximum temperatures over rest parts of the country during week 1.
Hence, no significant heat wave conditions are likely over the country during week 1.
During week 2, the maximum temperatures likely to be normal to above normal over northwest, east & northeast India. These are likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over remaining parts of the country.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 11 March 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 84.38 BCM from the previous week’s level of 89.75 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 95.46 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 68.33 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 112 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 10 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 04 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 48 88 123
Last Week 52 90 125
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 55% on 11.03.2020, 35% on 11.03.2019, 33% on 11.03.2018 and 37% on 11.03.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 12.03.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124
Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during March 2021 1269 413 183 633 276 Cumulative Receipt upto 12.03.2021 17363 3615 1423 5569 2094 Cumulative Availability upto 12.03.2021 17594 4067 1680 5999 2218
Cumulative Sales upto 12.03.2021 17069 3854 1501 5344 2033
Closing Stock as on 12.03.2021 525 213 179 655 185
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose Spiraling Whitefly reported at moderate intensity in 75 hectare of Coconut in Ramanagara,Tumkur, Bangaluru rural, Ballary and Vijayanagara districts of Karnataka.
For control of Rugose Spiraling White fly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) in Coconut, farmers were advised to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application of 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and Isariafumosorosea
@5ml/1lt of water spray. In severe case spray of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5% is recommended and avoid spraying in any form of insecticides.
V. Seeds Position:
Rabi 2020-21 sowing seasons is over. Requirement & Availability of seeds for Kharif 2021- 22 season may be available after 20th March, 2021.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 10 March, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Gram, Moong and Safflower.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Arhar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
VII. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (2nd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (4th Adv. Est.) Table 7.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020 This Year
2020
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019
Wheat 303.28 315.77 104.1 314.51 1.26
Rice 41.78 45.32 108.5 47.62 -2.29
Jowar 33.40 25.55 76.5 30.05 -4.50
Maize 17.37 16.75 96.5 20.39 -3.64
Barley 6.38 6.92 108.5 6.02 0.90
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.22 86.1 56.45 -7.23
Total Cereals 402.20 410.31 102.0 418.57 -8.26
Gram 92.77 107.15 115.5 101.74 5.41
Urad 8.93 9.06 101.4 8.48 0.58
Moong 9.86 9.29 94.3 10.40 -1.11
Lentil 14.24 14.98 105.2 13.16 1.82
Others 19.09 17.61 92.2 15.58 2.03
Total Pulses 144.88 158.09 109.1 149.35 8.73
Total Foodgrains 547.07 568.40 103.9 567.93 0.47
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 68.53 115.3 67.76 0.77
Groundnut 7.24 7.34 101.4 7.59 -0.25
Safflower 1.15 0.49 42.4 0.44 0.05
Sunflower 2.37 1.32 55.7 1.15 0.17
Linseed 2.74 2.34 85.2 1.88 0.46
Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.01 109.7 78.82 1.20
All- Crops 620.01 648.41 104.6 646.74 1.67
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 12
thMarch, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 12. 03.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 42.00 28.17 31.03
Telangana 50.00 32.67 31.55
Bihar 30.00 23.40 7.31
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 3.25 1.70 1.69
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 12.00 6.79 6.21
Odisha 37.00 40.77 33.99
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 17.00 15.20 10.20
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 23.80 10.74 8.40
All-India 518.25 455.03 397.66
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 11 - 17 March, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 11 MAR 12 MAR 13 MAR 14 MAR 15 MAR 16 MAR 17 MAR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS L ISOL FWS L● FWS L SCT SCT SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT L ISOL FWS L● FWS L ISOL ISOL ISOL
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL L ISOL SCT L SCT L ISOL ISOL ISOL 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT L # ISOL SCT L # ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT L ISOL L # SCT L # D D D
7 ODISHA ISOL ISOL L ISOL D D D
8 JHARKHAND ISOL ISOL L # SCT L # D D D D
9 BIHAR ISOL L ISOL L # ISOL L D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D ISOL L # D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL SCT L # D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND SCT L # FWS L # ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL L SCT L # D ISOL D D D
14 PUNJAB SCT L # SCT L # D ISOL D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS L # FWS L # ISOL SCT L # ISOL D ISOL
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH WS L # ● / * FWS L ISOL FWS L # SCT L SCT FWS
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL L ISOL L # D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL L ISOL L # D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L SCT L # D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L SCT L # ISOL D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D D D D D D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL L● D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL D D D D D D
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL D D D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS L● ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS L D D D D D D
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning # Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 12 – 16 March 2021:
