Summary Points of the CWWG meeting:

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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 20.06.2022

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 17.06.2022.

Summary Points of the CWWG meeting:

 Lower monsoon rainfall was observed during the week, as compared to Long Period Average (LPA) by 24%. However, there has been improvement as compared to the previous week.

 During the week, there was very heavy rainfall likely over northeast India and adjoining Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and extremely heavy rainfall also likely over Assam & Meghalaya during next 5 days.

 During the week, Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of Goa, Karnataka, MP, Maharashtra, AP, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Bihar. Southwest Monsoon is likely to cover remaining parts of East India, some more parts of central in the subsequent days of next week.

 During the week, heat spell continued to prevail over pockets of Delhi, J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Northern parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Southeast Uttar Pradesh, North MP, Eastern parts of Vidarbha. This Heat wave has been abated on 16 June. No significant heat wave likely over any part of the country during next week.

 The total live water storage in 143 reservoirs across the country is 51.054 Billion Cubic Meter (29%) of the storage capacity at full reservoirs level. The current year's storage is nearly 105 percent of the last year's storage.

 Soil moisture condition was good in some parts of North Eastern region and some Northern Region of the country, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat.

 During the current Kharif season 2022 (as on 17.06.2022), area sown was 99.63 lakh ha.

area as compared to 108.29 lakh ha. last year. The area coverage under Kharif crops is at preliminary stage.

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 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif-2022 except jute and common millet which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

 Availability of fertilizer has been comfortable.

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level except Tobacco caterpillar (Spodopteralitura) on cauliflower and FAW(Spodopterafrugiperda)on Maize in Rajasthan.

 Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 8.88% in April, 2022 to 10.89% in May, 2022.

 Overall major foodgrains prices have remained stable during the week.

 Prices of tomato have shown significant increase while potato and Onion have shown marginally increase during the last week.

 Out of major 15 crops, the Wholesale Average Prices of 9 crops namely, Wheat, Masur, Moong, Urad, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean, Sesamum and Sunflower have shown more than above MSP.

 Relatively less procurement of Wheat due to prevailing market price is more than MSP.

Details of each sector are given here under:

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Subject: Weekly Status Report on Crop Prospects as on 17 June 2022.

Monsoon Rainfall Status (March – May) during the week ending 15 June, 2022

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (01 June to 15 June 2022): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 04 sub- divisions, normal in 04 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 28 sub-divisions. (Sub- Division wise weekly rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 June to 15 June 2022): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 03 met sub- divisions, normal in 03 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 30 met sub-divisions. (Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 June 2022 to 15 June 2022)

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

14 JUN 2017

13 JUNE 2018

12 JUN 2019

17 JUN 2020

16 JUNE 2021

15 JUN 2022 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

09 09 10 28

11 10 05 26

01 01 05 07

11 12 07 30

14 10 06 30

01 02 03 06 Deficient

Large Deficient No rain

Total

08 02 00 10

06 04 00 10

11 17 01 29

06 00 00 06

05 01 00 06

16 14 00 30

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 15% 19% (-) 45% 32% 33% (-) 32%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (15.06.2022) Cumulative (01.06.22 to 15.06.2022) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

East & North-East 95.2 71.0 34 E 155.4 136.0 14 N

North-West 5.2 14.6 -64 LD 5.8 25.4 -77 LD

Central India 16.2 33.5 -52 D 18.5 53.0 -65 LD

South Peninsula 21.9 39.5 -45 D 48.2 75.0 -36 D

Country as a whole 26.5 34.9 -24 D 42.3 62.1 -32 D

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1.2 Weather Forecast

 Conditions are favorable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of North Arabian Sea, Gujarat State, Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh and Westcentral & northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, remaining parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and some more parts of Bihar, some parts of east Uttar Pradesh during next 2-3 days.

16 -22 June, 2022;

 Widespread thundershowers with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over northeast India and adjoining Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during most days of the week. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall also likely over Assam & Meghalaya during 16^th - 18^thJune, 2022.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal during the week. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Jharkhand & Bihar during 16^th -19^th; Odisha on 16^th & 17^th June. Isolated very heavy falls also likely over Bihar during 16^th -18^th June.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during the week. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over East Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh during next 5 days and over Vidarbha on 18th &

19th June.

 Fairly widespread/ widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Western Himalayan region, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over adjoining plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh

& Delhi, Uttar Pradesh), Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during the week.

 Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe, coastal & South Interior Karnataka during the week; Telangana during 16^th -19^th; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 16^th -18^th; over south Konkan & Goa during 18^th -22^nd and over south Madhya Maharashtra on 20^th -22^nd June, 2022.

 Isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm likely to occur over rest parts of the country during most days of the week.

23 - 29 June, 2022:

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely to continue over northeast & adjoining East India during most days of the week.

 Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall very likely over northwest India during most days of the week.

 Southwest monsoon is likely to cover remaining parts of central India and many parts of northwest India.

 Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over Gujarat and Maharashtra; below normal over parts of Western Himalayan Region, Kerala and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; and normal to above normal over rest parts of the country.

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Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (16 -29 June, 2022)

 During the week 1, Maximum temperatures likely to fall by 2-4° C over most parts of northwest India and no significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country during the week.

 No significant Heat wave conditions likely over any part of the country.

 During the week 2, Maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal to near normal over the country.

 No significant heat wave likely over any part of the country during the week.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 16 June, 2022)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 143 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 177.46 BCM, which is about 68.83% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 143 major reservoirs decreased to 51.05 BCM from the previous week’s level of 52.85 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 48.65 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 38.42 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 143 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 105 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 21 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 06 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50%, 11 reservoirs with storage upto 30% and 04 reservoirs having no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 29 105 133

Last Week 30 108 134

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 27% on 16.06.2021, 32% on 16.06.2020, 17% on 16.06.2019 and 19% on 16.06.2018.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2022 (As on 17.06.2022)

(In LMT) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP NPKS SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2022 47.83 7.73 2.47 14.05 15.69

Actual Requirement for Kharif 2022 179.01 58.82 19.82 63.72 33.19 Estimated Requirement during June, 2022 33.04 11.02 3.53 11.85 6.31 Cumulative Receipt upto 17.06.2022 65.44 26.91 3.75 19.76 10.37 Cumulative Availability upto 17.06.2022 113.27 34.64 6.22 33.80 26.05 Cumulative Sales upto 17.06.2022 46.90 15.47 2.02 11.13 8.83 Closing Stock as on 17.06.2022 66.36 19.17 4.20 22.68 17.22

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level except Tobacco caterpillar (Spodopteralitura) on cauliflower and FAW (Spodopterafrugiperda)on Maize in Rajasthan.

o Tobacco caterpillar (Spodopteralitura) and FAW (Spodopterafrugiperda) were reported at Moderate intensity (Above ETL) from Ajmer and Chittorgarh districts of Rajasthan in 30 and 50 (ha) areas respectively.

V. Seeds:

 The states have reported tentative 177.97 lakh quintals seed availability against the requirement of 160.45 lakh quintals in the country for Kharif-2022 season. An overall surplus of 17.52 lakh quintals of seed is available for Kharif-2022.

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2022 except Jute and Common Millet.

 Certified/Quality seeds shortage was in some states in some commodities.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 10 June, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Arhar and Gram.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Masur, Moong, Urad, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean, Sesamum and Sunflower.

 Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 8.88% in April 2022 to 10.89% in May, 2022.

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Status of change of WPI in April 2021 over May 2022 for some major items is as under.

- All Commodities: increase from 15.08% to 15.88%.

- Primary Articles: increase from 15.45% to 19.71%

- Food Articles: increase from 8.35% to 12.34%.

- Non-food Articles: increase from 23.81% to 24.14%.

- Pulses: declined from -0.34% to -3.69%.

- Cereals: increase from 7.80% to 8.01%.

- Wheat: declined from 10.70% to 10.55%.

- Paddy: increase from 1.48% to 1.79%.

- Fruits and Vegetables: increase from 16.87% to 32.31%.

- Milk: increase from 5.11% to 5.81%.

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VII. Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table: 7.1

Period /

Commodities Weight

Inflation (year on year)

May-2022 Apr-2022 May -2021

All Commodities 100.00 15.88 15.08 13.11

Primary Articles 22.62 19.71 15.45 9.40

(a) Food Articles 15.26 12.34 8.35 4.25

Cereals 2.82 8.01 7.80 -2.58

Paddy 1.43 1.79 1.48 -0.55

Wheat 1.03 10.55 10.70 -2.54

Pulses 0.64 -3.69 -0.34 12.09

Gram 0.26 -5.54 -0.18 18.44

Arhar 0.13 -2.23 -0.73 14.46

Moong 0.07 -1.95 -1.18 -5.62

Masur 0.05 14.99 17.98 16.78

Urad 0.09 -11.16 -9.73 4.53

Vegetables 1.87 56.36 23.24 -7.18

Potato 0.28 24.83 19.84 -26.11

Onion 0.16 -20.40 -4.02 23.24

Fruits 1.60 9.98 10.89 17.81

Milk 4.44 5.81 5.11 2.31

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 7.78 4.50 10.79

(b) Non-Food

Articles 4.12 24.14 23.81 18.37

Oilseeds 1.12 7.08 16.10 36.00

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Progressive Procurement as on 17 June, 2022

Table 8.1: Rice

(In Lakh Metric Tonnes)

State Progressive Procurement as on

17.06.2022 In Marketing season

2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 41.82 48.69

Telangana 76.58 84.43

Bihar 30.09 23.40

Chhattisgarh 61.65 39.76

Haryana 37.06 37.89

Jharkhand 5.12 4.28

Kerala 5.04 4.90

Madhya Pradesh 30.70 24.97

Maharashtra 10.49 1.74

Odisha 46.97 42.80

Punjab 125.48 135.89

Tamil Nadu 25.93 23.24

Uttar Pradesh 43.91 44.78

Uttarakhand 7.74 7.12

West Bengal 16.68 15.68

All-India 570.94 543.39

Source: Food &PD

Table 8.2: Wheat

(In Lakh Metric Tonnes)

State Progressive Procurement as on

17.06.2022 In Marketing season

2022-2023

In Marketing season 2021-2022

Punjab 96.47 132.10

Haryana 41.81 84.93

Uttar Pradesh 3.30 55.55

Madhya Pradesh 46.03 128.08

Rajasthan 0.08 22.32

Uttarakhand 0.02 1.44

All-India 187.81 427.17

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Annex-III/ P.I

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 16 June – 22 June, 2022 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 17 June – 21 June 2022:

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