ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﻮﻧ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ ؛ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻥﺎﻘﻫﺩ ﺮﺤﺳ
*
،1
ﻲﻣﺮﻬﺟ ﻱﻮﺳﻮﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﮕﻳ ،2
ﻲﻟﺪﺒﻋ ﻥﺎﻣﺮﻬﻗ
3
1 . ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺘﻛﺩ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻙﺍﺭﺍ ، dehghan4000@gmail.com
2 ﺳﺍ . ،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﻮﻧ ﻡﺎﻴﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺘ mosavi@pnu.ac.ir
3 . ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،
abdoli@ut.ac.ir
:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 29
/ 01 / 1396 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 28
/ 06 / 1396
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲـﻣ
ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﻘﺘﻋﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻔﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻛ ﻞﺋﺎﺴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
، ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ؟ﺖﺴﻴﭼ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1979 ﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻩ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ، ﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ . ﻱ ﺎﺘﻧ ﺞﻳ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ
ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻛﺎـﺣ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﻢﺋﺍﺮـﺟ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻴﺑ ﻦ ﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱ ﻢﺸﭼ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺍﺮـﺟ . ﻢﻳ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺎـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ
ﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺖـﻴ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ گﺭﺰـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺎـﺑ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ
ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﻫ ﻭﺩ
،ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪـﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﻱ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ . ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨـﺳ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ
ﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺶﻳ ـﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲ
ﻭ ﻥﺪـﺷ ﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺶﻳ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﺯﻭ
، ﺕﺎﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
، ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛﺯﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﻳﺍﺮﺟ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻢﻳﺍﺮـﺟ ﺖﻴـﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL D81, H26, H29
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ :
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ
* ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ . ﺱﺎﻤﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻱ 09332602972
ﻪﻟﺎﺳﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ، ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱ
ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
1 - ﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﻲﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ
ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﺘﻴﻤﻛﺎـﺣ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﺎﺑ ﺖﺷﺬﮔ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﻝﻮـﺻﻭ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ،ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﻮﺻﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ءﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣ ﺖﺳﺍﺮﻈﻧ . ًﻻﻮـﺻﺍ
ﻡﺪﻋ ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻲﻠﻛ
» ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
« ﻭ
» ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
« ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺮـﻫ ﻭﺩ
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻪﺑ ﻦﺘﻓﺎـﻳ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ
ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺷﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ
، ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺰﺳ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ
ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﺮﻴﻏ
ﺯﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻭ
ﻭﺭ ﻲﺘﺧﺎﻨﺸﻧﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ . ﻲـﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ
ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻴﺒﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺻ ﺩﺪ ﻥﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻴﻏ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﻲـﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﻭ ﺪـﻧﺪﻣﺁﺮﺑ .
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﻮـﺧ
ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻨﭼ ﻪـﻫﺩ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﮓـﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻭ
ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺗ ﻪﺟﻮ ﮋﻳﻭ ﻩ ﻱﺍ ﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻠﻋ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ
ﻧﺁ ﺎـﻬ ﻪـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺭﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﺖـﺴﻧﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﺩﺍﺭ)
،ﻢﻳﺩﺍﻭ 2008 ( . ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱ
» ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
1«
ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ
1979 ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ .
ﺭﺩ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻪﻟﺄـﺴﻣ ﻱ
ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ
ﺎﻫ ﺮـﻫ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻱ ﻭﺩ
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ .ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ
ﺭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻭ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺱﺭﺎﻓ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﻏﺎﺸﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻭ
ﺭﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺎﻬﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺋﺍ
ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻫﺩ
ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
.ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
1. Prospect theory
2 - ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻜﻤﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻦﻴ
ﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻟﺎﻣ ﻡ ﻲﺗﺎﻴ ﺑ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻗﺭ 8 / 18 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 1381
ﻪﺑ 49 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ 1388
ـﺳﺭ ﻩﺪﻴ ﺖـﺳﺍ
) ﻔﺷ ﻲﻌﻴ ﻟﺎﻤﻛ ﻭ
،ﻲ 1390 ﺮﺑ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ(
ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻢﺠﻨـﭘ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺩﺎـﺼ
،ﻱ ﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲ ﻭ
ﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻲ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ) 1390 - 1394 ( ﻪﺑ ﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻊﻄﻗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻲ
ﺰﻫ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻪﻨﻳ
ﺍ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺍﻮﻋ
ﺖﻔﻧ ﻭ ﺯﺎﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ
ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻱﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ
ﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺶﻳ ﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺎﻴ
ﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴ ﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲ
ﻣ ﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴ 10 ﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻦـﻳ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻗﺭ
1392 ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ 29 / 5 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻓﺮﻇ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ)
ﺖﻴ ﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻴ
ﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴ 1393 -
1389
، ﻣﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﻮ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴ ﺮﺑ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ،(ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻧ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻢـﺸﺷ ﺰـﻴ
،
ﻱﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻔﻨﻣ
ﻲ ﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴ ﻬﺟﻮـﺗ ﻲ ﺹﺎـﺧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺎﺟ ﺎﺗ ﻲﻳ ﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺎﻴ
ﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴ ﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲ
ﺯﺍ 5 /6 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
1394
، ﻪﺑ 5 / 11 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 1399
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺖﺳ
) ﻪﺤﻳﻻ ﻱ ﺮﺑ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻢـﺸﺷ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ .(
ﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻦﻴ ﻥﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻢﺘـﻔﻫ ﻞﺼﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺏﻮـﺼﻣ
3 / 12 / 1366
ﺣﻼﺻﺍ) ﻪﻴ ﻱ ﺏﻮﺼﻣ 31 / 4 / 1394 ( ﺍﺮﺟ ﻲﻤﻳ ﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻴ
،ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺯﺍ
ﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﻛ
،ﺕﺎﻴ ﺩ ﺩﺮﻛﺮﻳ ﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴ ﻕﻮـﺸﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﺑ
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻏﺮﺗ ﺐﻴ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺪﻋﻮﻣ ﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪـﺑ
ﻊـﻗﻮﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﺸﺨﺑ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻢﻳﺍﺮﺟ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻴﻓﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻴـﭘ
ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺯﺍ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
،ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺬﻟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻢﻠﻋ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺸﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ
ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎـﺗ ﺮـﺑ
ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺑ
ﻊﻗﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﻭ
ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻭ ﺶﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻧﺁ ﺎﻬ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺏﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺖﻳﺍﺪـﻫ
ﻛ ﺪـﻨ ﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﺑ
،ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺸﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﻢﻠﻋ
ﻱﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻢﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻭ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ
،ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻣﺍ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪـﺑ
ﻊﻗﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎـﻛ ﻝﻮـﺻﺍ
ﺖﺳﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺧﺎﻨﺸﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺐﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺎﻬﻧﺁ
، ﺭ ﻥﺪﻴﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻥﺎﺳﺁ ﻮﺷ ﺮﺗ ﺩ )
،ﻲﺘﻤﺣﺭ 1387
، ﺹ 39 .(
3 - ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ
ﻱ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﻲﻔﻴـﺻﻮﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﺮـﺗﺮﺑ ﻞـﺻﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻪﻫﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻝﺎـﺳ
ﺎـﻫ ﻖـﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ
ﻻ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺯ
ﺪـﻫﺩ . ﺪﻫﺍﻮـﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲـﻣ ﺾـﻘﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻢﻠـﺴﻣ ﻝﻮـﺻﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) 1992
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ .(
ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﺕﺎـﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ،1
ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ 2
ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ .ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺖـﻴ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ
ﻱ ﺮـﮔﺍ ،ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺎﻴﭘ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ
ﺎﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ
Xi
ﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺪ ﺎـﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺮـﻫ ﻉﻮـﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ
Pi
ﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ، :ﺩﻮﺷ
) 1
n (
i i
EUT
¦
i 1P u X( )ﺿﻭﺮﻔﻣ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ،ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ :ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺎ
ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ
ﺎـﻫ ،ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎـﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ،ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ
ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ .ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲـﻣ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻝﻮﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻨﺑﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮـﻜﻧ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﻖـﻓﻮﻣ ﻥﺍﺪـﻨﭼ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
) ،ﺮﭽﺘﻴﭘ 2008 ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻛ .(
:ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
1 - ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ًﺎﻣﻭﺰﻟ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﺩ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺭ
.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
2 - ﻱﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﻴـﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻢﻛ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻫﺩ
ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺪﻨ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮﻛ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺩ
ﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺗ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻢﻴﻤﺼ
55 ﺎـﺗ 56 ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ
، ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﻩﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ
؛ﺖﺴﻴﻧ
1. Rational 2. Expected utility
3 - ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻧﺁ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ،ﺪـﻨﻛ
ﺎـﻬ ﺮـﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ ،ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ
؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ 4 - ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
؛ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
5 - ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ
1 ﻲﻣ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻨﻛ
ﻪﻄﻘﻧ .ﺪﻨ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩﺮﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻊﺟﺮﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻭﺍ ﺖﻴﻨﻫﺫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺵﻼﺗ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ،ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺎﻛﺎﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻛ
ﻩﺩﺮ ﻧﺍ ﺪ ﻪﻛ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﻭﺭ ﻝﻮـﺻﺍ
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﺳﺎﻨﺷ
»ﺗ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ « ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻛ ﺪﻨﻨ
،ﺲﻳﺮﺑﺭﺎﺑ) 2013
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ .(
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
، ﻥﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺪﻳﺩﺎﻧ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﻝﻮﺻﺍ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺗﺎﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻞﺻﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﻛ :ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ-
:2
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ،
ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻁﺎـﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺏﺪﺤﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ
ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ ﻊـﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻌﻘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ
، ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻜـﺷ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻭ ﺖـﻴﻨﻫﺫ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
،ﺲﻳﺮﺑﺭﺎﺑ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭ 2013
.(
ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ- :3
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺘﻳﺎﺿﺭﺎﻧ ﺱﺎﺴﺣﺍ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻱﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﻴﺑ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻦـﻳﺍ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺳ ﺐﺴﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﺿﺭ ﺱﺎﺴﺣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺮﺿ ﺯﺍ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ . ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻛ
ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻥﺁ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ
ﺵﻼـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ؛ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺮﺗ
ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺷﺎﺑ ،ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻨ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻩﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ
، ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ
ﻱ ﻒﻄﻋ ) ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ (،
ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ـﻛ ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﻪ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ
ﺩﻮـﺳ ﺐﺴﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺭﺮﺿ ﺯﺍ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺐﺴﻛ ﻲـﻣ
،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ) ﻪـﺑ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ
1. Reference point 2. Reference dependence 3. Loss aversion
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ )
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺘﻤﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺮﺿ ﺭﺎﭼﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻣﺎﻬﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺩﻮـﺧ ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺮﺿ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ .(ﺪـﺳﺮﺑ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ
ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺏﺪﺤﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻒﻄﻋ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) 1992
.(
ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ- ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ :1
،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ) ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ 1
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ (
ﻪﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ
ﺩﻮﺳ
، ﻪـﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺏﺪـﺤﻣ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻌﻘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﻦـﻳﺍ .
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺖـﺴﻴﻧ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺳ
،
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺸﻴﺑ ﺐﺗﺍﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺐـﺴﻛ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺳ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) 1992
.(
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﺯﻭ- ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻭﺩ :2
ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺬﺟ ﻭ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ3
ﻱ ﻞﻜـﺷ
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺍﺭ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ .ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﻢﻴﻤــﺼﺗ ﻝﺎــﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲــﺷﺎﻧ ﻚــﻳ ﻭ ﺮﻔــﺻ ﻦﻴــﺑ ﺩﺮــﻓ ﻱﺮــﻴﮔ
ﻭ ﺖﻴــﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺶﻫﺎــﻛ ﻲــﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺯﺍ
ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻱ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺏﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ (ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ)
ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺼﺗ ﻢﻴﻤ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺐﺒﺳ
ﺖﻴـﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ )
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ 1992
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ .(
ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ
ﻱ ﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻭ ،ﺩ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺬﺟ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺬﺟ ﻞﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ
، ﺧ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻂ
45 ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺰـﻧ ﺎـﻳ ﺩﻮﻌـﺻ ﺖﻴـﺻﺎﺧ) ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
) ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ .(ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ 2
.ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ
ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻛ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ :ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻧﺍ
1. Diminishing sensitively 2. Probability weighting 3. Attractiveness
ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ )1
1979 (
، ﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
» ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻚـﻳ :ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
2«
، ﻭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻬﺟﻮـﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺵﻼﺗ
ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺸﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﻩ
ﺪﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ .
ﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻢﺸ
ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻛ
ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪﻧ
ﻦﻤﺘﻴﺗ )3
1993 ( ، ﻞﻴﻧﺍﺩ
4
) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ
1998 (،
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪﻧ
ﻭ ﻮﻫ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺍ )5
2007 ،(
ﻲﻛﺯﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻭﺎـﺗﺎﻣ )6
2008 ،(
ﺮﻧﺪﻴـﺳ )7
2010 ( ﻭ ﺰﻴﺗﺭﺎـﻨﺑ ﻭ 8
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ) 2011 (،
ﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
، ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻢﻴـﺳﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻪﻤﻴﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﺎﻫ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻤﻴﺑ ﻱ ﻪ ﺍ
.ﺪﻧ
ﺲﻳﺮﺑﺭﺎﺑ )9
2013 (،
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
» ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﺳ ﻢﺸﭼ
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ «
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ
ﺯﺍ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻭ
،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺍﺯ
ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺎﻫ
، ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ
ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ
.ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻦﺴﺗﺮﻠﻳﺍ )10
2014 ،(
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﺖـﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻜﺴﻳﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ . ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻢـﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﻫ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺎﺳ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ،ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪـﻧ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ
ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﻱ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﻭﺍ
ﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ ﻪﻛ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻱ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ .ﺪﻫﺩ
1. Kahnman & Tversky
2. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 3. Titman
4. Daniel 5. Hu & Scott 6. Koszegi& Matthew 7. Sydnor
8. Benartzi 9. Barberis 10. Eilerts
ﻱﺩﺎﻫﺮﻓ ) 1393 ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،(
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻱ ﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻲ ﻱ
/ﺩﻮﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑﺎﺜﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻭ ﻲﺗﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ
ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻱﻭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺦﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺶﻴﭘ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﻪﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮـﺳ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﻮﺳ
ﺣﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﺳ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻪﻴ
.ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ
ﻪﺟﻮﺗﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ :ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻢﻟﺁ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ1
) 1992 (،
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻢ
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺪـﻴﻘﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻳﺩﺆﻣ
ﻥﺪـﺷ ﺭﺎﻜـﺷﺁ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻱ ،
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺑ ،ﻝﺎـﺣ
ﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻩ ﺍ
.ﺪﻧ
ﺯﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻭ ﮓﻨﻴﺴﻫ )2
1997 ( ﻭ ﻮﻴﻧﺎﻳ )3
1999 (،
ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺵﻼﺗ ﺭﺩ
» ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺶﻴﭘ «
ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻜﺷﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ،
ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﻨﻴﻋ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺒﺗ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ .ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺳﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ 4
ﻱﺩﺭﺎﻧﺍﺯ )5
2004 ( ﻚـﻳ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ، ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ
ﻊـﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲـﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻭﺩ .ﺪﻧ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩ
ﻪﻨﻣﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻣﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻱ
.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻮﺗﺎﺳﻮﺑ )
2014 ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ،(
) (OLG
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﺮـﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺎـﺑ6
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﻜﻤﺗ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﺋﺎﺴﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺮﻛ ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
1. Alm
2. Elffers & Hessing 3. Yaniv
4. Bernasconi 5. Zanardi
6. Overlapping Generation Model
ﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻪ ﺍ
ﻭ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻮﺗﻻﻮﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻦﻠﺑﺍﺭ )1
2016 ( ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺮﻈﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ، ـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ .ﺪﻧ ﻱ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻛﺍﮋﺘﻴﻳ ﻝﺯﺎﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻲﻔﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺯﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻦﻠﺑﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻮﺗﻻﻮﻴﭘ )
2016 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻱ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻴﺑ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻥﺎ ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻱ
ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺕﺎـﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﻜﺴﻳﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﻝﺍﺆﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﭼ ﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﺭ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
.ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺽﻭﺮـﻓ
ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻛﺎﺣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﺑﺎﻴﻧ
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ 4 - ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﺩﺮﻓ ﺮﻫ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﻮﻤﺸﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭw
ﻱﻭ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑD
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ
D [ , w]0
ﻱﺩﺆـﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺍﺭt
،ﺪﻨﻛ 0 t 1 ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆـﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ،
p [ , ]01
ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﻢﻴﻠﺴﺗ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻩﺩﻮـﺒﻧ ﻕﺩﺎـﺻ ﻪـﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺮﮔ ،ﺪﻨﻛ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
t WD
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
t WO(D )
،ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭙﺑ ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ 0
λ>
ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮﻧ ، ﻱ
ﻡﺪﻋ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻮـﺷ ﺭﺎﻜﺷﺁ ﻱﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺖ
ﺎـﺑ ،ﺩ
2s
، ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ،ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﺍﺪـﻧ
ﻲﻣ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
s (WD)
، ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ
s [s,s ']
ﻥﺁ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ Φ(s)
ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻟﺎـﮕﭼ ﻭ
Φ(s)
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ.
:ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
1. Piolatto& Rablen
2 ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﺱﺎﺴﺣﺍ . stigma
ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ :ﺩﻮﺸﻧ
) 2
NC (
Y WtD
ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ :ﺩﻮﺷ
) 3 (
YC 1 t W – s Ot W D
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭp
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣλ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ .ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ
ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻤـﺴﻗ ﺎـﻳ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻜﻧ ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ
(λ+1)
ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺍﺮﻧﺁ
ﺷ ﺭﺎﻜﺷﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻥﺪ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻚﻳ
ﺮﻨﻴﻜﺳﺍ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﺖﻴﻤﺳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻭ 1
ﺩﻭﺮﻤﻠﺳﺍ ،2
1985 ﻥﺩﺭﻮﮔ ؛ ،3
1989
؛
4ﻲﻠﺴﺑ ﺖﺋﻮﻛﻭ ،5
1992 ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ( ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
.ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﻱﺎﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺎـﻣﺍ ،ﺩﺮـﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﻠﺧ ﺎﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻘ
ﺶﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
.ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
4 - 1 - ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ
ﺽﺮﻓ ﻨﻛ ﺪـﻴ ﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺖـﻴ
ﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴ ﻛﺍ ،ﺮـﻌﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ًﺍﺪـﻴ
ﺍﺰﻓ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳ
، ﭘ ﻪﺘـﺳﻮﻴ ﻭ
ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ،u(Y)
ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﻭ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ :
) 4 C NC (
U D; t; s; ; WO p D u Y ª¬1 p D º¼ u Y
ﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ =C
ﻲﺗﺎﻴ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺮﮔ ،
ﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ =NC
ﻲﺗﺎﻴ .ﺩﻮﺸﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺮﮔ
4 - 2 - ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺚـﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
.ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑR
ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ ﻣ ﻱ ﻊـﺟﺮ
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﺴﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ)
R 1 t W
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ (ﺩﻮﺷ
:ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﺗ ) 5
i i (
X Y R , i = C or NC
1. Skinner 2. Slemrod 3. Gordon 4. Besley 5. Coate
ﻪــﺑ ﺖﺒــﺴﻧ ﺪــﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩﻮــﺳ ﺎــﻳ ﻭ ﻥﺎــﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲــﺷﺎﻧ ﺖــﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪــﻄﻘﻧ
ﻊــﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ
Xi
ﻊﺑﺎــﺗ ،
1ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
V(Xi)
، ﻪﺑ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ 1992
:(
) 6 (
( ) ( )
i xi sxi 0
v x xi xi 0
E
° E t
®°¯T
1! T E, [ ,1]
، ﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻲﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ .
ﻞﺻﺍ
» ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ «2
)
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ 1984
( ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﻓﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻁﺮـﺷ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺮﺗﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ 1992
ﺎـﭘ .(
ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭ ﻱﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ،θ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑx
ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺕﺎﺸﻳﺎﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺕﺬﻟ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻛﺎﻧﺩﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ )
1992 ( 88 / 0
|
ﻭβ 25 / 2
|
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣθ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ .3
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﺯ :ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳ
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1 . ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
1.Value function
33 - ﻲﺸﻛ ﻪﻋﺮﻗ ﻚﻳ ﺮﮔﺍ
n n
x , , x ;p p ( 1} 1, , } )
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ pi
ﻩﺰﻳﺎﺟ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻧﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ Xi
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﺲﻧﺎﺠﺗ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :
n n n
(x ,1}, xn;p ,1}, p ) ~ yo(kx ,1}, kx ;p ,1}, p)~ ky
، ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ~ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺍﺭ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ .ﺪﻫﺩ
50 - ﻭθ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﺸﻳﺎﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍβ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
.
ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺕﻻﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ
، ﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺕﻻﺎﻤ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ
، ﻲﻣ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎـﻛ) ،ﻲﻜـﺳﺭﻮﺗ
1979
؛ 1992 ،ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲـﻧﺯﻭ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .(
ﻭ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ًﺍﺪـﻴﻛﺍ ﻪـﻛ ،w(p)
ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﻱ
1]
0,
ﻭ[
1]
0,
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ[
ﻲـﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
) ﻩﺯﺎﺑ 1 0,
ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ( ﺩﻮـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ
w+(p)
ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻭ
w-(p)
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺻﺎﺧ ﻉﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ . ﻱ
1]
0,
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ[
ﺍ ﺖﺳ ) ﻚﻴﻟﺮﭘ 1998
1( ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ،ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ
) ﻚـﻴﻟﺮﭘ ﻲـﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻲﻬﻳﺪﺑ ﻝﻮﺻﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ 1998
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ (
ﻲﻣ :ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻡﺮﻓ .ﺩﻮﺷ
) 7 lnp (
W p W p w p e D
ﻭ
P ϵ (0, 1], w (0) =0, 0˂ α ˂ 1
w(p) ﻭ w(e-1)= e-1 |0/37 ،w(1)= 1 ، w(0)= 0 ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ
˃ p w(p)
) ﻩﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ
e-1
ﻭ 0 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻌﻘﻣ ًﺍﺪـﻴﻛﺍ (
، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﻪـﻛ ، w(p)
ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ
˂ p w(p)
ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱ
) ﻭ1 e-1
ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺏﺪﺤﻣ ًﺍﺪﻴﻛﺍ ( w(p)
ﻩﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
) 1 0,
ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ (
C∞
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ .ﺖﺳﺍ 5
/ 0 = α ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ
.ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 2 . ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
1. Prelec (1998)
ﺴﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮ
R 1t W
، ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻩ
ﺎـﺑ ﻭ
ﻪﻛ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﺎﻳ
0 ≤ D ≤ W
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ، :ﺖﺷﺍﺩ
) 8 (
XNC t W D t0
) 9 (
XC Os t W D d 0
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗV w +
ﻭ
w -
ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﻭ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻣﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺳ ﺷﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮ ،ﺪ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
، ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﻭ
:ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ) 10 (
C NC V D; t, s, , , W w p D v X
w p D v X
ª º
¬ ¼ O T
ª¬1 º¼
ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑﺎـﺸﻣ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﺎـﺑ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
،ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ )
4 ،(
ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻲﻳ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺎـﻬﻠﻣﺎﺣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
،1
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ ﻱ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ
ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ . ﻥﺯﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻣﺎﻴﭘ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺪ
ﺩﻮـﺷ
، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻨﻴﻋ ﺕﻻﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺳﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺭﺎـﻧﺍﺯ .ﺩﻮـﺷ
) 2004 (،
ﻥﺯﻭ
ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ
w+ (1- p) = 1 – w- (p).
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﻧ ﻚـﻴﻟﺮﭘ
) 1998 ( ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺳ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈ
ﺩﻮـﺷ
w p w(p)
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ . ﺕﺭﺎــﺒﻋ
ﺎــﻫ ) ﻱ 6 ( ، ) 8 ( ، ) 9 ) ﻭ ( 10 ﻪــﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،(
ﻱ ﺮــﻳﺯ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ :ﺪﻳﺁ
) 11 (
V D; t, s, , , W t W D p D
s t W D w p D
E
w
O T E
T O
ª º ª º
¬ ¼ ¬ ¼
ª º ª º
¬ ¼ ¬ ¼
1
ﺱﺎــﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺎــﻬﮕﻨﻴﻟﺁ ﻭ ﻮﻣﺪﻨــﺳ ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
)2
1972 ﻲــﻛﺍﮋﺘﻴﻳ ﻭ ( )
1974 (،
ﺯﺍ ﻲــﻜﻳ
ﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄ
ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ
p – p O !
1 0
ﻆـﻔﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ3
ﻥﺪـﺷ ﻲـﺳﺮﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻪﭼ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ
1. Carriers of utility
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻨﻛ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
،ﻲﻜﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎﻛ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ 1979
.(
2. Allinghamand & Sandmo
3 ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ . ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ) ﺮﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ (
ﻢﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ؟ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻲـﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪـﻳﺰﺠﺗ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺍﺮﺒﻴﻟﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻒﺸﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ،ﺩﻭﺮﻤﻠﺳﺍﻭﺮﻨﻴﻜﺳﺍ) ﺩﻮﺷ
1985 (،
ﻪﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻉﻼﻃﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺺﻴﺨﺸﺗ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻘﻴﻗﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ
ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻒﺸﻛ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
. 1
4 - 3 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﺮﺟ ﻪﻤﻳ ﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺖﻴ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ ﻞﻳﺫ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ :ﺖﺳﺍ
) 12 (
p sc
p t
O 1
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ
) 11 (،
ﺍﺭ ﻪﻄﺑ ﻱ ﻢـﺸﭼ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
:ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ) 13 / (
w p
c t t
w p
ª º E
«T » O
« »
¬ ¼
1 1
s
ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ )
[s, ś ] scϵ
=
Ǝs ( ، ﺭﺩ ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ
ﻱ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ s!sc
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻬﻇﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺭﺩ ﺎﺣ ﻲﻟ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺩﺆﻣ ،ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮـﻃ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﻣﺎﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ
،ﻲﻫﺍﻮﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻤﻫﺩ) 2007
.(
4 - 4 - ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ
ﻲﻜــﺳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻧﺎــﻛ ﻪــﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﺒــﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺱﺎــﺳﺍﺮﺑ )
1992 ﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎــﺠﻧﺍ ( ﻩ ﺍ
،ﺪــﻧ 25 / 2
|
ﻭβ
88 / 0
|
ﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .θ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﻏﺎﺸﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻢﺠ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺱﺭﺎﻓ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺥﺮﻧ .ﺩﻮﺷ
1390 ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ 20 ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
ﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ
،ﻱﺪﻤﺻ) 1395
(،
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪـﻛ ﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮ
ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣﺍﺭ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺖﺣﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﺘﻣﺍﺪﻧ ﺲﺣ ﻲﻠﻳﻻﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻪﻛ ﻲ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﺯﺍ
1 ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺝﺍﻭﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺍﺮﺒﻴﻟﺎﻛ ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣ . ﻉﻮﻧ
ﻩﺩﺎﺳ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻲﻣ
.ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
